Tag Archives: Japan

April 18, 2023 · 19:45

The choice of options

Part of this started yesterday when I saw a message pass by. I ignored it because it seemed trivial, yet today ( a few hours ago) I took notice of ‘Google rushes to develop AI search engine after Samsung considers ditching it for Bing’ from ZDNet (at https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-rushes-to-develop-ai-search-engine-after-samsung-considers-ditching-it-for-bing/) and ‘Alphabet shares fall on report Samsung may switch search to Bing’ (at https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/4/17/alphabet-shares-fall-on-report-samsung-may-switch-search-to-bing). In part I do not care, actually this situation is a lot better for Google than they think it is. You see, Samsung, a party I disliked for 33 years, after being massively wronged by them. Decided to make the fake AI jump. It is fake as AI does not exist and when the people learn this the hard way, it will work out nicely for Huawei and Google. There is nothing like a dose of reality being served like a bucket of ice water to stop consumers looking at your product. I do not care, I refuse any Samsung device in my apartment. I also dislike Bing, it is a Microsoft product and two years ago I got Bing forced down my throat again and again through hijack scripts, it took some time blocking them. So I dislike both. I have no real opinion of ChatGPT. As we see the AI reference. Let’s take you to the Conversation (at https://theconversation.com/not-everything-we-call-ai-is-actually-artificial-intelligence-heres-what-you-need-to-know-196732) I have said it before and they have a decent explanation. They write “AI is broadly defined in two categories: artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) and artificial general intelligence (AGI). To date, AGI does not exist.” You see, I only look at AGI, the rest is some narrow niche for specific purpose. We are also given “Most of what we know as AI today has narrow intelligence – where a particular system addresses a particular problem. Unlike human intelligence, such narrow AI intelligence is effective only in the area in which it has been trained: fraud detection, facial recognition or social recommendations, for example” and there is an issue with this. People do not understand the narrow scope, they want to apply it almost everywhere and that is where people get into trouble, the data connected does not support the activity and adding this to a mobile means that it collects massive amounts of data, or it becomes less and less reliable, an issue I expect to see soon after it makes it into a Samsung phone. 

For AI to really work “it needs high-quality, unbiased data, and lots of it. Researchers building neural networks use the large data sets that have come about as society has digitised.” You see, the amount of data is merely a first issue, the fact that it is unbiassed data is a lot harder and when we see sales people cut corners, they will take any shortcut making the data no longer unbiassed and that is where it all falls apart.

So whilst the ‘speculators’ (read: losers) make Google lose value, the funny part is that when the Samsung connection falls down Google stands to up their customer base by a lot. Thousands of Samsung customers feeling as betrayed as I was in 1990 and they will seek another vendor which would make Huawei equally happy. 

ZDNet gives us “The threat of Bing taking Google’s spot on Samsung phones caused “panic” at Google, according to messages reviewed by The New York Times. Google’s contract with Samsung brings in an approximate $3 billion annual revenue. The company still has a chance to maintain its presence in Samsung phones, but it needs to move fast” I see two issues here, the first is that the NY Times is less and less of a dependable source, they have played too many games and as ‘their’ source’ might not be reliable, as such is the quote also less reliable. The second source is me (basically) they weren’t interested in my 5 billion revenue, as such why would they care about losing 3 billion more? For the most, there is an upside, when it falls down (an I personally believe it will) Samsung could be brought back on board but now it will cost them 5-6 billion. As such Samsung would have to be successful without Google Search for 3 years and it will cascade into a collapse setting, after that they will beg just to return to the Alphabet fold, which would also make this Microsoft’s 6th failure. My day is looking better already.

Am I so anti-Whatever?
No not really. When it is ready and when the systems are there AI will change the game and AGI is the only real AI to consider. As I stated before deeper machine learning is awesome and it has massive value, but the narrow setting needs to be respected and when you push it into something like Bing, it will go wrong and when it does it will not be noticed initially until it is much too late. And all this is beside the setting that some people will link the wrong parts and Samsung will end up putting its IP in ChatGPT and someone will ask a specific question that was never flagged and the IP will pour straight into public domain. That is the real danger for Samsung and in all this ChatGPT is free of blame and when certain things are found the entire setting needs to be uploaded into a new account. When we consider that a script with 65,000 lines will have up to 650 issues (or features, or bugs), how many will cause a cascade effect or information no one wanted, least of all the hardware owner? Oh, and that is when the writers were really good. Normally the numbers of acceptability are between 1300-2600, as such how many issues will rise and how long until too many patches will make the system unyielding? All questions that come to mind with an ANI system, because it is data driven and when we consider that the unbiassed data isn’t? What then? And that is before we align cultural issues. Korea, India, Japan and China are merely 4 of them and seeing that things never aligned in merely 4 nations, how many versions of data will be created to avoid collapse? As such I personally think that Google is not in panic mode. Perhaps Bard made them road-wise, perhaps not. 

I think 2024 will be a great Google year with or without Samsung and when Microsoft achieves disappointing yet another company its goose will be royally cooked on both sides of the goose no less. We have choices, we have options and we can mix them, but to let some fake AI make those choices for us is not anything at all, but feel free to learn that lesson the hard way.

I never liked Samsung for personal reasons, and I have been really happy with my android phone. I have had an Android phone for 13 years now and never regretted having one. I hope it stays that way.

Enjoy the day and don’t trust an AI to tell you the weather, that is what your eyesight can do better in the present and the foreseeable future.

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April 8, 2023 · 00:07

It has holes

There are a number of issues with banks, the latest one is the one I left alone initially. It was the Credit Suisse – UBS issue. 

The initial issue are the holes, like a Swiss cheese, it has holes. In the cheese it is accepted as it is part of the process. But with banks? How many holes can we allow for? Now, the ice is thin here. I am not an economist and I am no banking person, So what do I know? Well, I know infrastructures going back to my Intelligence days, I have seen companies getting gobbled up and in some cases for all the wrong reasons, you see those parts were on paper pleasing, but the reality of it was that reality bites and that is when you feel like a Japanese guy gobbling up a live fish. That is seemingly OK, until the fish eaten is a piranha and it starts eating you from the inside out.

So lets get back to the first article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65177258) where we see ‘Credit Suisse investors angrily confront bank as chairman says sorry’. There we see Ulrich Korner in some stage of apathy. He reminded me of a Dutch political comic in one of their newspapers (a long time ago) where we see “When we get to item 4, it would be best if at least one of the board members start crying”. It felt like a farce, a joke for the stockholders who are about to lose a lot more than they bargained for. The text the BBC gives us is “The loss-making bank had already been struggling for a number of years after a series of scandals, compliance problems and bad financial bets. Mr Lehmann told investors at the Annual General Meeting that management had a plan to turn things around but had been “thwarted” by fears prompted by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US.” I personally feel like this is misdirection. I personally believe that the US bond issues are stretched on several fronts and as I wrote in previous articles, how did Credit Suisse stock up on the Basel III front? What was the safety gap? It is my personally belief that there was close to none (or at least a lot too little), and now Credit Suisse will be removed and their banks will hoist the UBS logo soon enough, especially with the scandals and bad bets that were made. 

Yet that same day, the Irish times (at https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/2023/04/05/ubs-chair-says-credit-suisse-integration-will-take-up-to-four-years/) shows us ‘UBS chair says Credit Suisse integration will take up to four years’ that is for banking in these volatile times a massive risk to take and it is not taken lightly, as such I believe that people like Janet Yellen would have been on the phone with a few people. When the American bonds go, the US economy will go and I reckon they will take the Japanese and EU economy into the abyss with them. It is a personal view and I have nothing to prove it with, but the weak response from the media implies that these sources got told to play it cool or face consequences. It is a speculation, but when we take the view I had in the past on Shareholders and stake holders, I belief that I am decently correct and it is a personal view after all.

The Irish Times also gives us “Even with downside protection in the form of government support, there’s a “huge amount of risk in integrating these businesses,” Mr Kelleher, who is from Cork, said in prepared remarks for the bank’s annual general meeting on Wednesday.” The setting is that UBS is getting the bank for three billion Swiss francs. One source tells us “How much a company is worth is typically represented by its market capitalisation, or the current stock price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding. Credit Suisse Group net worth as of April 06, 2023 is $2.76B.” When we see other sources we get “Total assets CHF 531 billion and Total equity CHF 45 billion” this was last year and they have a little over 50,000 staff. I reckon that the bosses there are working on their resume and I would suggest the word ‘scandal’ is written correctly, because involvement in sandal does not go over well in the financial sector. And when you see these numbers, it is all sold for 3 billion? And we see no serious questions from any media. 

So what is left of the assets? What are the bond numbers and total value per nation of bonds acquired. There is no insight of that. Just like the meltdown of 2008 no one is to blame and the US is fixing the carper so that it can hide more dirty laundry. So how long until the people realise that their economy is largely based on an empty egg shell? 

The Irish Times also gives us “Shareholders will receive one UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held” this implies a mere 4.44% of value return for the shareholders, yes their value goes up butt this level of saturation is an issue and I reckon that more banks will follow at some point. Banks will become bad investment for the tax write off and the shareholders will lose out. Don’t get me wrong, I have no real sympathy for them, this is the outcome of shares and stocks. Sometimes you lose. But we need to look back to 2012. In the Netherlands we saw ‘SNS Reaal mulls bad bank for property operations’ (source: Reuters), it was their too big to fail operation and the people were not happy, it was a setting of real estate that was just beyond believe and now we get a similar setting but now it is not real estate, it is banks that are the bad investments and how many of them are holding bonds? The fact that the media never properly investigated this implies that I am a lot closer to the truth than even I am happy about. 

And the last part is giving us ““I understand that not all stakeholders of UBS and Credit Suisse are pleased with this approach,” Mr Kelleher said. “However, all parties, and in particular the Swiss authorities, considered this solution the best of all available options.” – Bloomberg” yes that sounds good, but I have a list (and that is just the Credit Suisse naughty list).

US tax fraud conspiracy, 2014, 2023
Malaysia Development Berhad scandal, 2015
Mozambique secret loans scandal, 2017
US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act violation, 2018
Climate controversy, 2018
Espionage scandal, 2019 (debatable issue)
Greensill Capital, 2021
Archegos Capital, 2021
Forex manipulations conviction, 2021
Drug money laundering scandal, 2022
Suisse secrets leak, 2022 (debatable issue, I still believe it was an NSA activity)
Russian oligarch loans documents destruction after invasion of Ukraine, 2022
Social media rumours, 2022 (debatable)

So 10 issues and 3 debatable issues, but the debatable issues do leave a mess at the front door of Credit Suisse. In all this Credit Suisse is walking around without clean hands, and the hands must always be clean. So does that warrant a CHF 550 billion downgrade? I honestly d not know and there is debate on some of these sources. I get that there will be differences in sources, but this much? This does not make sense, but it makes a lot more sense when we consider where the priority of Janet Yellen is and it is not the bank, it is the USA. Taking her away from the issues and letting it all be phrased by Bloomberg is not acceptable, not in the least. As Baby Herman states “This all smells like yesterday’s diapers”

As I personally see it, this bank issue has holes like we see in Swiss Cheese. 

Have a great day!

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February 16, 2023 · 20:47

Profit in the upright position

Yup, that is as good as it gets. You see, we have heard all the airlines whine about losses and loss of revenue, all whilst they added over 41,000 daily flights over the last 15 years. So whilst we see the stupid people (the Guardian journalists) have a go at people with a private jet, they are merely losing the plot by actually looking into airlines. So it was an interesting sight to see ‘Air Arabia delivers record 2022 net profit of $327 mln, up 70 pct’ (at https://ara.tv/y756m). This led me to the thought what if all those airlines are working with the wrong business model? Alarabiya News gives us “Air Arabia, the first and largest low-cost carrier (LCC) operator in the Middle East and North Africa, announced historic financial results for the full year ending December 31, 2022, almost doubling the profit and passengers’ numbers of the previous year, as the airline continued with its growth plans, delivering remarkable financial and operational performance”, when I see ‘low-cost carrier (LCC)’ on that side and we get “the Japanese domestic operator was Y3.4 billion ($25.8 million) in the black for the nine months to 31 December 2022”, I do understand that this is domestic, but at a mere 7% of what Air Arabia is doing. Now, don’t get me wrong. I do get that I am (to some extent) comparing apples to oranges, but I bet you dollars for donuts that some of these airlines need a business overhaul. As I see it, the 90’s model of just adding flights does doesn’t do it. And the environment is getting hurt in the process which the Guardian wasn’t properly reporting on, but that is my personal view. 

So what can be done? What must be done? We see very little but the numbers are out in force and I wonder who is looking at the options there. Perhaps it is all ‘saved’ by accountant abracadabra, who can tell and that is the problem, no one is actually looking into it and now I have questions. Perhaps my questions aren’t entirely up to the mark and there are factors that matter, but that still warrants my view of their business plan overhaul. So to speak, when the accountants tell them to put their profits in the upright position someone better listen, because as I see it Air Arabia is showing them how (at present) it could be done. As I see it, they have 327 million identifiers that they are on the right flight trajectory. Even more so when we see that their profits are reported to be 70% up, that is not some trivial matter. That is something airlines need to take a closer look at and If I am the first one to mention it, you get to wonder why others are asleep at the wheel, because as I personally see it, that is what it amounts to.

 

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February 12, 2023 · 09:40

Introducing: The nightmare

Yes, that is where we are at. It is not the beginning of some horror, although that is not out of the question, the larger stage is who the horror will hit. The setting of this stage begins with ‘Biden prepares largest Pentagon budget in history as spending cuts loom’ (at https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/10/biden-pentagon-budget-debt-ceiling-00082302). This could be any day just like any other day, but it is not, it really isn’t. You see, the debt ceiling is about to get hit (yet again) but there is no raising it this time, with the debt surpassing $30,000,000,000,000  this debt is also surpassing the national GDP. It is even more dangerous. Last year the interest on this debt surpassed 25% of the national budget. It has become that bad. And I tried to warn people that the media and the puffy politicians were playing a game with you, but most never listened and that is not on them. There is no reason to listen to me. It is much better that you find out for yourself. So here we are, all whilst something serious should have been done from the age of former President Barack Obama. Let’s be clear, I am not blaming him, the fault is on BOTH sides of the isle. Tax laws and a tax system that was never overhauled, budgets that were not kept in control and things went from bad to worse. So now we get the pentagon budget. I am not saying what should be done, the issues with Russia and their invasion of the Ukraine is still a massive factor and there is every chance Russia does not stop there. Something needs to be done I get that, what the best course is is only known for those who know the actual facts and we don’t have them, but with a stage where that budget is now getting the additional “lawmakers appropriated $858 billion in national defence funding — $45 billion more than Biden sought”, almost a trillion dollars is added to the total debt slamming pretty much through the debt ceiling, as far as I can tell issues will rise and things will start to collapse the things got this far out of hand and now the US will face a new domestic danger. You see Wall Street might actually embrace a default. It would give them unparalleled powers in the US, not for a few years or decades, it will solidify their powers for CENTURIES to come and that will make them richer then anything else. That is the nightmare scenario and it is here 3-5 years before I thought it would come, but then I am not an economist and my predictions are more on point than some of the predictions the IMF made, so there.

And if you think that this is merely some paper run, think again. If the US goes into default, where do you think the Ukraine will get there hardware from? When the US falls, so will Japan soon thereafter and the EU is not far behind them, a world that overspent for decades. A world for the taking by China to say the least, optionally 2-3 more players enter that field, but about that more later. And if you think that this is just prancing, think again. As I see it to avoid this setting the US would have to cut budgets by 50%. That pretty much ends the social settings, infrastructure and a few other stages. The nightmare scenario has arrived on the porch of US households and there is no way to predict how this unfolds, we cannot tell because the path will be in part on how Wall Street deems it to be and that is never in favour of any household.

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February 3, 2023 · 22:15

Blocked by greed?

It happens, good ideas fall down merely by the setting of greed. I get that some people revere greed, they pray qt the shrine of coin to get more, forever they prey to get more. Yet what happens when greed gets in the way of a good deal? For that we merely have to look at the place where boobs and smiles are as genuine as a crooked politician trying to get reelected. The forever need to drive that movie that will bring in a billion plus and some make it. Some make movies that gets the juices of desire flowing. Marvel is an excellent example. But you need a small education in reality. You see when we think directors one of the most famous and most achieved directors is Steven Spielberg, he gained revenue of $10,665,089,317 yet it took him 37 movies to get there and there are many nowhere near as good as him. So how about that $1 billion mark? When we look at franchises Harry Potter might be one of the most visible ones. In this Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II (2011) is the only one that passed the one billion mark. Does this mean that we lower the bar? Not necessarily, yet that one billion mark is too visible, too much of an orgasm point for all the wrong people. All whilst there have been a good selection of options out there and they are overlooked. 

I mentioned before that the comic book called The Trigan Empire has every option with a right director to get to the high point, optionally with a blonde John Cena in the title role. They might not make the one billion, but they could make a massive profit, an amount that goes further than merely return on investment. There are so many others. There was Franka, a modern version of Brenda Starr, but with subjects that matter today, options that make women herald this next hero. There have been so many comic books in the 70’s and 80’s, all making a good chance to rake in the revenue and most of them not from the USA.

So why does this matter?
It matters because SKollywood is becoming a thing, because more and more people are accepting movies with subtitles and South Korea is producing more and more movies that are connecting to people, perhaps not in the US, but guess what? Over 2/3 of Hollywood revenue is often international. That Harry Potter movie only made $381M in the US, the rest, almost a billion came from outside the US and Hollywood needs to change steps and up the game because Korea (south part) is bringing people the Witch and more movies that are connecting to people all over the world. A stage Hollywood never considered is now becoming a reality. Who saw the Japanese movie Audition? That was intense stuff. Other movies like Old Boy and the ring found American versions, but non-Americans look at what is. You see we all liked the Departed, but those who saw the original Hong Kong version will find it lacking. Not the actors, not the script, but the original in Hong Kong just had that little more and Korea is producing a whole fleet of movies, as are several other nations. 

All this and then we get to Netflix, Hulu, Disney Plus and a whole range of others. Hollywood gets 3500 scripts each year and 350 are being made, so what is failing, because something is, the revenues do not lie. So far this year Avatar 2 and Maverick were the only two movies I ran to a cinema for and that is over the last 20 weeks. The well is drying up and Hollywood needs to set the steps to new heights, because they cannot afford to lose more and as I see it pointing the finger at streamers is not good enough. Japan and South Korea have their share of amazing movies,  so it is not merely the materials. I personally believe that it is the process that is failing. People have the wrong mindset at present. It should not be what gets me the most, it needs to be what can I do to get enough and up the quality of movies, that is the real trick and as far as I can tell, they haven’t figured out how to go about it. My evidence? The Trigan Empire, I made mention of it well over a year ago and since then no one picked it up. Not Netflix, no other streamers and not Hollywood. But I do remember hearing all kinds of complaints that Anansi (American Gods) is too black, or something of that nature. With the quote that “Charles Eglee, thought Mr. Nancy wasn’t right ‘for black America.’” In this I think he should talk to the writer (Neil Gaiman), as we see that it is more and more becoming all about perception the natural outcome is that others will reject what is there and over 65% of the revenue comes outside of the US. 

I let you decide what you watch, it was always your choice, but do you want American gods the way it was written, or what some producer thinks it needs to look like? Perhaps some of them remember the Justice league movie and what happened in the end.

Just food for thought, in the mean time South Korea has a few new gems coming this year. I wonder how far they make it this time, so far their record is pretty impressive. 

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February 1, 2023 · 14:02

Insecure Masturbation Fraternisers (IMF)

Yup, that is the slogan and to get there we need to take a little trip down memory lane before we get to the article that jogged my memories. You see, it all started on October 10th 2013 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2013/10/10/economic-management-through-newscasts/) where I gave the readers “The same day I get the news on a diplomatic escalation in the Netherlands, sky News UK comes with an entirely different matter. Two elements seemed to be in play. The IMF suddenly lifted the economic growth for the UK by 1.4% for 2013 and for 1.9% for 2014. Those are numbers that are beyond remarkable. Sky News showed Olivier Blanchard the Chief economist of the IMF to make this statement. It was interesting that the IMF calls on Christine Lagarde to give the bad news and Olivier gets to give the good news. There was a shimmer of hope for realism as Ed Conway, economic Editor at Sky News was happy to not reject the notion that the IMF have been lousy forecasters in the past to say the least”, as well as “‘Suddenly’ there was good news, a week before the debt ceiling needs to be raided, whilst the US is still in shutdown mode. Let us not forget that Greece, who also suddenly had ‘good’ news last week is still beyond broke, in addition France and Italy are still not in good shape. The biggest issue is that the UK forecast, which was +0.6%, which was a pretty good achievement to +1.4%. That boils down to a miscalculation of almost $18 Billion! That is a massive miscalculation. There is no indication that such errors were made. Consider that the IMF had high criticism towards the tactics by Chancellor George Osborne, UK’s faithful exchequer.” Are you clued in at present. There is now an indicator that the IMF is nothing more than a political presentation tool to hand out lollies for others to look away as credit limits are increased. It is one of the reasons I went towards Brexit. After the speech by Marky Mark of the British bank (aka Mark Carney, a Canadian no less), I saw the dangers of staying in the EU. Mario Draghi was using a Credit card for trillions after the first trillion was a miss. Now, that happens, solutions are selected hoping it will set the outcome to another stage. There is no fault there, but then he does it again for another 2 trillion. Wasn’t it Albert Einstein that stated that only a lunatic will do the same thing twice hoping for a different outcome? And it wasn’t just me, others had reservations too. There was no outcry when Mario Draghi was shown to be a member of an exclusive bank group. So how much did his friends end up with catering to that debt. Consider that bank bonds have a registration fee and commission. So how much commission did these two dozen people get over three trillion? I can tell you that is would be up to 2%, implying that two dozen people ended up with $600,000,000, not a bad run. So why should the UK pay for that?

Now that we are all caught up (to some extent) it is time to look at the article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64452995) giving us ‘UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF’. Now I am not stating that this is not the case, it could be. Yet when we look to 2013 and later, the IMF has played the wrong spades in this game. So when I see words like ‘expected’ and ‘only major economy’ after it took the IMF and Creepy LaStrange (I think that was her name) a year to admit that they made an error of well over $18,000,000,000 I have issues with anything they claim. And when I see “The IMF said the economy will contract by 0.6% in 2023, rather than grow slightly as previously predicted” without clarity I have issues. The numbers could be true, but with the Russian clambake in the Ukraine, the Covid issues (especially in China), the labour shortages and a few other elements that influences the issues, we merely see  “Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the UK outperformed many forecasts last year. But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the figures showed the UK “lagging behind our peers”” and charts and numbers how bad the UK is doing, but the problem is that the IMF (or Insecure Masturbation Fraternisers) have been too much like a political tool. They proclaim that Russia is getting a positive boost this year but we do not see that it might be mainly woodworkers to create the  126,650 coffins for lost troops, so their economy is up, but who pays that bill? And in the stage of presentation my issue is that these people are all about ‘forcing’ the UK back into the EU so that their GDP can be added to their credit limit. The EU is running out of credit card space, it has been for a year and the UK revenue is essential to turn that about and people need to wake up to the unaccountable overspending the EU is doing. At present the EU debt is well over €12 trillion  with several nations having too much debt. We all know about Greece with over 193% of GDP, Italy surpassed 150% of GDP and Portugal surpassed 125%, Spain is almost at 120%, and France is at almost 115%. The credit limits have been reached and it does not bode well, so all hands on deck forcing the UK back into the EU, but the truth is that once the hardship is passed (which will take some time), the UK will become the power player and the EU will be reduced to a third world nation. So basically at present (a personal view) the German debt of 80% of GDP is the only economy keeping the EU standing. That is not enough and I spoke about that in the past (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/) in ‘The finality of French freedom’ on the 7th of March 2017 where I wrote “Which is why France is a big deal, that whilst they represent one of four anchors keeping the Euro in place. With the British anchor removed, the stress on the three is intense, the Euro cannot continue with the remaining two anchors that is the desperate game Draghi is facing now. Weakness and non-decisions from 2012 onwards have caused this mess, and of course he is not done yet. As we see in Reuters, last Monday he stated “If non-high-tech companies adopt more innovative technology, that would provide a boost for European productivity“, speaking as the European Central Bank President last Monday, it that so? With what funds? Innovations requires money, such steps have a cost” here I compared the economy with a floating platform kept in place by 4 anchors. It used to be the UK, France, Germany and Italy. Now that the UK is gone, the platform is now in trouble as only the German anchor has any strength left. The economic sea is in turmoil and I already saw this in 2017. Then we got Covid and that stupid bear named Russia and now the economy is a problem, especially for the EU and when that breaks up, the US (Japan also) have no way to go but down and that is what they all fear, they can prolong this if they can bully the UK, but we have seen enough bullies. We all have had enough and that is why I chose Brexit. I could not predict Covid or Russia, but a next economic disaster is alway just past the horizon, there is always a next fire to put out and now the IMF wants to make matters look worse. As I see it, they need a whole range of better and more descriptive numbers. As it stands, at present I do not trust the IMF. Yes the UK could face another recession, but it will be nowhere as bad as the one the EU faces. In the end the UK is part of a Commonwealth and we all (Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) need to united to face the headwinds of the coming storm, we owe it to each other with the acts of irresponsibility we do not owe the EU and we do not owe the US. The US has had over a quarter of a century to overhaul their tax laws. I made mention on this as early as in the age of President George H. W. Bush (1998) now 25 years ago. I say enough is enough and the IMF better give us a lot more and a lot clearer numbers than what we see in the BBC article. That is my personal point of view on the matter.

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November 9, 2022 · 20:14

It started with a prank

This is the story of a story if you want. To get the fill idea I have to take you back to 1974. We got a visit from an airforce officer, he showed us quartz. Not a small piece either, we needed both hands to hold it, it was like a small pyramid almost 10 inches each side and it was raw, not shaped, not prepared, raw quartz. It was almost like magic. Now we go back to almost the present. The movie Cloverfield is out and it is quite the trip and whilst I was watching the DVD it suddenly hit me. What if I could send pats of the edited movie on an SD card and hand it to the officer with the message to get it to DARPA. Apart from the simple fact that there were no SD card in 1974, the idea that a 10 year old knew about DARPA would be remote and the contraption would be unknown to the officer who would be able to see that it was advanced tech. Once they figured out it was 128GB the panic starts, because in 1974 a 200MB Winchester drive would be the size of an office desk. Then they need to decode what was there and when they saw the MP4 files panic would truly start. Lady Liberty, the Brooklyn bridge and more. The panic would be near complete and the prank would be utterly complete. So this was when the daydream stopped and the mind started to wind the cogs. What if it was not a prank, what if it was not then but now. What if hackers, not some government create a different kind of file. A file that gives a stage that could create panic. Like the light bar in newscasts, what if at 02:30 the transmission was interrupted WITHOUT the studios noticing that a special newscast that the bitcoin collapsed it was at this point 700 points down and expected to drop another 800 points. Not one, but orchestrated over half a dozen stations setting the stage in 2 timezones (in the US, China, Japan, or perhaps gullible North Korea). The panic wave would create a dip, large enough to make a decent killing, especially if the buys were not in the country where it was hit, and 30 minutes later all traces were gone. The media would have a field day trying to find out who did it and how it was done, but the stage is now complete. You see, What if Solarwinds did not just update supermarkets, what if that was the start of a specific backdoor that could not be found as it was too small and it was inactive (like the Optus hack).
The idea that people will drop their bitcoins at $14000 ($6K down) implies that there would be a lot of money be made in 30 minutes. And after the hour the bitcoin is sold again and the scoundrels walked out with millions, paying off their ‘loan’ with a healthy profit. It would need massive orchestration. The stations, the internet, several other elements and those who think it is impossible better realise that Solarwinds, Optus and a few more hacks overlap in places and a small cohesive group could be waiting below the line merely waiting for the right time and with the average detection time is set to 200 days there is plenty of manoeuvring space. 

The setting for a Hollywood script in a few hours. I need a hobby!

Well that was my scoundrel side thinking new ideas to be made into a script. Have a fun time and please invite me to the red carpet if the scripts becomes reality.

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August 10, 2022 · 00:06

Peek a boo

I have no idea what drove it. I was watching an advertisement, I was thinking of non-repudiation and for some reason the cogs in my skull started spinning. Before I knew it I had an entirely new set of IP. OK, a set is a little bit of an exaggeration but it is definitely more than one IP. The implementation is something else. I would need to confer with whomever buys my IP. Whether it is Amazon, Google, Netflix or Tencent. The IP is meant for streamers. The idea could apply to consoles as well, but they would not benefit as much, although, when I think of it. Yes, it could apply there too. So it is a larger field. 

I am not being secretive, but it is a less complex idea, so I would give too much away, as such I will put it in a safe place (not 4 Chan though). The idea is growing as I type. I am considering more sides and more options. There are a few practical sides too and it could drive other elements to a larger extent. But it is too soon for that, for now I have a new piece of IP that I can add to IP bundle 1. Will there be more? I honestly do not know. I never banked on this side, but here it is and more might follow, but I do not know. This idea came quite literally out of the blue. I have been brooding on the Line (Neom), certain solution would fit nicely there, yet too much of that place is still in the planning phase, so as more comes out into the open, it is likely that more will come to mind, but there is no way to tell. There is still the gaming side to consider. After the ideas of zombie survival, the citadel conundrum and a few other games, I seem to be digging into one direction. There is nothing wrong with that, but it comes with the danger that I design too similar themes and gamers are not appreciative of that, and neither am I. There is the setting of a new stealth game, based on Tenchu Z, set in a city but not in Japan. This is not a Ninja game, but a stealth game based on an individual and vengeance. Too many elements are not set yet. I was thinking of a place no one tends to use. A place like Stockholm, Rotterdam or even Washington DC. Just an idea, the place is less important than the fact that there is a water element. I am using Amsterdam for a very different game (a game that I wrote about 3-5 years ago). An idea that I had before, a setting that suits the streamers well. You see we seem to create maps again and again, but what happens when we reuse them? Streamers would benefit and not the same map. Not the identical map, well identical yes. But the ability to respawn the game and every building based on the era the game plays in. We seem to forget that the city we live in is the same city we play in, but what happens when that game is set in 1950? 1926? It is not always clear how that map ends, but it is time we explored a different way of creating and enjoying games. It started when I was considering the RPG Generations. You see evolution goes in 2 directions, we merely forget the one direction, but that does not mean it is not there and as such my mind went places. I reckon that there is a lot more to look at, but for now? I have new pieces of IP and I am celebrating that with a cold beer, I believe I deserved it today. 

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June 28, 2022 · 20:26

Will you feel frisky?

I actually got a bit upset over some of the responses I saw. They weren’t hostile mind you, but too many people are thinking that this will sort itself out. It will not, it is too late for that. 

You see, yesterday I gave part of the solution, but I could have given you a little more. As such lets look at the first building. 

This is an average building in Silicon Valley, many exist. When you see the red box, you see the lighter panels, they give no view, they are there to hide (suspected) concrete. These panels could all (or phased all) be replaced with solar panels. Will it solve everything? No, it’s too late for that, but the stage of replacing the way power is used in California is essential. In this if we can transform building by building and lower the power needs places will be on route to do something real. They have been sitting on their hands for close to three years and the hardship is about to hit the fan. And this is merely one example, Silicon Valley is not the evil, the evil (if there is one) is a group of politicians and administrators sitting on their hands (as I personally see it). And it goes far beyond the US. 

Within Greater London, the administrative area governed by Boroughs there are approximately 42,000 “buildings” greater than 18m high. Consider the lowering of drain we see if 420 buildings are transformed. It will not solve everything, but we need to move now and London (New York too) are on the forefront of everyones mind, their winters are harsh. So how many people are allowed to freeze to death? Because that is where we are headed too.

Here we see a modern building in London, I put an arrow towards the light panels that are seemingly not functional, one building with the option of 2 times (back of the building too) 7 (floors) times 28 panels. That could make this building to a much larger extent energy neutral, but energy neutral might not be enough, what happens when that building batter can fuel the lights in the area too? It is lights, warm water heaters, coolers. We will not get everything done, but we can get a lot done and the Tesla battery is central in that solution. As I stated yesterday, Austin is another place with hardship coming their way, not the cold of winter (or so I believe), but energy issues will be clearly seen. Austin Texas has 3,675 buildings, optionally lowering the power needs all over the place. The biggest issue is New York. 

All partial solutions. And for those making claim for a complete solution, there isn’t one. All talk talk talk and no action, as such nations are finding themselves in a nasty predicament and the Elon Musk battery was a start to decrease pressure, and where is it installed? Nowhere, and that sets the stage of what comes next. Bloomberg gave us 2 days ago ‘A Hot, Deadly Summer Is Coming With Frequent Blackouts’ (at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-05-22/summer-blackouts-bring-deadly-risk-as-heatwaves-grip-the-globe) You think that is bad? Consider a blackout when it is -2/-7 in winter, that will keep you frisky (and optionally freeze you to death). In some cases it might be too late, however New York seemingly has 43.000 buildings, 300 of them are Skyscrapers taller than 15 metres. These are but three places. It gets to be an interesting pool when we consider Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston. All places that could have started upgrading 2 years ago, all places sitting on their hands, or installing cladding to kill dozens of people in the process.

I am afraid that for a lot of people it might be too late. Some sources give that in New York the death stats on hypothermia are around 1320 a year, how much do these numbers need to go up for people to start moving? There have been clear warnings for 3 years, this might be a year when things come to a disastrous point, although we could argue that if enough people die in New York apartment prices might go down, but that is me, behind every silver lining is a new dark cloud forming.

So what is the best option? Anything is better than inaction and we have seen too much inaction for too long and in too many places. This issue is not merely an American one. It is a European one as well and the UK will be hit harder and harder as their supplier (Vattenfal) is most likely to fall short. The UK is increasingly relying on importing energy and in the current political climate it will not be that clear if there is enough, but winter will sort it out, it usually does.

In all this there are plenty of solar panel suppliers, but there will be a shortage, it is the Tesla battery that is the larger issue. I reckon Elon Musk will be eager to sell 100,000 batteries, but does he have them? Can they be made in time? All fair questions and I do not have the answers. I merely look around and remember the story of a farmer named McBain. McBain knew the railroad would pass through Sweetwater one day and he saw ahead. He was sitting on the only water for hundred of miles around. It did get him killed, but the setting we saw in Once upon a time in the West is now seen in the form of energy, Elon Musk has the IP for the one essential part of solving or reducing the energy crises we see in the US, in the UK and in the rest of Europe. He is sitting just fine, and whilst the people who needed to do something are keeping themselves immobile, the pressure goes from bad to worse and even as some houses have taken precautions, actions on a much larger scale are needed. In this consider Japan. They need 37,000,000 people to reduce energy needs. Try that in the US (or UK for that matter), so when it hits these two places it will be nasty and it will not subdue any day soon, because as one system fails, a domino tsunami will break system after system and there is no way to tell where it will end, the only thing you are likely to hear is wishful thinking. That is my personal view, but considering I was on this page three years ago, I feel decently sure that the fallout will be harsh, mush more so than anyone expects and it is not the summer I fear (although it will be awful for many), it is winter that will truly add to the casualties of houses and participants.

So you go check and make sure your family has options. 

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February 7, 2022 · 15:21

Relaunching IP

It is a thought plenty of people have and I am no exception. I was contemplating things and then I realised in light of the news I covered in the last week that educating people is always better than telling them how it is. Some people are afraid that THEIR thoughts are all, but I am not the most intelligent person on the planet. I am more intelligent than mot and my IQ is around two point short from the setting that Alan Turing had, so I have that to sulk about. But the station to educate others, to teach them where to look and what to look for remains appealing. So there I was sitting and contemplating an old master called the Balance of Power. I had bought the game on the Atari ST and I loved it. The game was a little shallow, but it was new, it had never been done before and as such it kept my attention for a long time. 

Wouldn’t it be great if someone picked up that idea and turned it into something serious? No longer a mere US versus Russia, but geopolitical field that included espionage. The US, EU, Middle East (Iran or Saudi Arabia), Russia, China and Japan? Consider that we have ‘quotes’ like “Problem analysis is the process of understanding real-world problems and user’s needs and proposing solutions to meet those needs. The goal of problem analysis is to gain a better understanding of the problem being solved before developing a solution”, and there is massive support to consider. There is J. J. A. Tacq who gave us Social Science Research From Problem to Analysis (1997), there is From Secrets to Policy by Mark Lowenthal which is now in its 8th edition. Foundational materials that makes us think and consider a much larger picture. There are economic works that could help creating understanding. Even if one book gets implemented in that game it becomes a whole new beast and to get the kitty turned into a behemoth that scares every tiger in Asia work needs to be done. But the game that was meant for a 640Kb Computer now gets 10,000 times the resources and has a setting of a massive data warehouse that could enable larger prototyping than ever considered before. I see some bloggers (journalists too) working the same equation again and again, all whilst they could create something much more explanatory and insightful for all readers. Some might not care and that is OK, yet the Balance of power had appeal to a fair amount of gamers and I believe even now in a new generational setting I believe that this appeal will still be there. And the benefit of streaming implies that you can try and you can see how the pawns fall down, the rooks optionally stand up and the political board shows a lot more than you ever considered. 

We seem to think that old is gone, but games and simulators were more advanced because they overcame memory obstacles, I reckon that some programs can still make us turn out heads, especially when some of these programs were created with the limitations that 1985 had and considering that my Abandonware gave the game 4.6 out of 5 gives another reason to consider what was out there. And let’s face it, what do you have to lose?

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