Tag Archives: KSA

June 16, 2023 · 20:49

The news I never saw coming

We all have this, we see events. We see impact and we see the fallout of choices. There are no real surprises. Yet Google surprised me a little. First they dump their Google Stadia and through that shed market share, all whilst there is a stage where they also denied themself to billions in revenue. This happens, there is no blame. There are a whole range of corporations who needed to adjust their mission statement, their party line. I get that (in the 90’s not that much). So I was taken by surprise when Al Arabiya gave us (at https://english.alarabiya.net/News/saudi-arabia/2023/06/15/Google-announces-training-for-Saudi-Arabia-gamers-MENA-Gaming-Summit-in-2023) with ‘Google announces MENA Gaming Summit in 2023, training for Saudi Arabia gamers’. So first they dump their Stadia and now they start training gamers? What will they use a PS5, or the Amazon Luna? So when we see “Last year, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince announced a plan to develop the country’s gaming and esports industry, aiming to create 39,000 jobs and boost GDP by $13.3 billion (50 billion riyals) by 2030.” I merely go ‘meh’, they turned me down when they stood to make billions in advance, optionally I would be representing 40% of that revenue in phase 1. I admit that my solution is not much for the Esports category, as such I am not a solution, but indirectly they could be fuelling all kinds of business and the revenue adds up. Still this is not about me, it is about Google. Their training manuals are pretty sic and as such that choice makes sense, yet under what guise are they restarting a gaming initiative after dumping their console? It is not the weirdest question to ask.

And it is also there that some parts are starting to make sense. With “Gaming experts and partners from Google will run training programs for over 250 university students across Ahsa, Abha, Dammam, Jeddah, and Riyadh from September 2023 with the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology’s Centre of Digital Entrepreneurship (CODE). The program is expected to cover entrepreneurship strategies, gaming career opportunities, monetisation through Google Ads solutions such as PerformanceMax and AdMob, distribution best practices on Google’s app store Play, storage solution Cloud and video streaming platform YouTube.” It seems to me that the gaming side is merely a sidetrack. The real deal is seen with “monetisation through Google Ads solutions such as PerformanceMax and AdMob, distribution best practices on Google’s app store Play, storage solution Cloud and video streaming platform YouTube” as I see it, this is about advertisement money at ANY expense. How lovely from Google. At present we see the funny money hype through gaming as an advertisement handle. How to maximise on that, which is not the same as gaming. It is at times actually the opposite of it. 

And with “YouTube will offer a workshop at the Saudi Esports Federation’s Gamers8 conference for 50 Saudi-based creators and Esports players focusing on gaming content and channel optimisation, audience development and engagement with the gaming community on YouTube.” I reckon that before long it will become about advertisements pushing through engaging with gamers. I could be wrong, but that is how I am seeing it at present. There is one part I find deceptive, but I could be wrong. With “Saudi Arabia is home to over 22.3 million gaming enthusiasts, many of whom can be equipped to turn their passion or hobby into a full-time career.” I am wondering what the endgame is. You see, Saudi Arabia has 32.1 million people. This statement gives us that 69% of Saudi Arabia is a gamer. That is an uncanny large population. And then we get to ‘many of whom can be equipped to turn their passion or hobby into a full-time career’, I cannot say that this is false, because I have no data whatsoever giving evidence that the statement is correct or false, yet the statement that the larger setting of 69% can be equiped to be professional players implies that there is a massive need for hardware. Perhaps that is true, but it also opens up other dangers for Saudi Arabia. An average gamer and his PC sets the need for an 850 Watt power supply. Now consider that half of that, roughly 15 million will suddenly require 850 Watt for the PC and then we get the monitor and other devices. That is one hell of a power drain. The KSA would need to consider the larger need of 2 nuclear reactors commencing their building within 60 days and there is every chance that if the Google numbers are right, they will come up short long before these rectors are completed. These puppies take 5 years, they can rely on gas or oil reactors for power, but that puts whatever environmental needs they had going on the draft of failure. All that and the largest setting is not even being met. That level of gamer additions and the rest of the nation will face labour shortages, but that is merely me trying to be realistic.

So is there something? Well yes, this does not come out of someones imagination, but I have some question around the numbers and that is merely before we consider another side. You see Statista released in April “Nine out of ten adults in the UAE play video games, and 90% of respondents in a Global Consumer Survey by Statista considered themselves gamers, with 23% identifying themselves as frequent players, meaning they play at least 11 hours per week. In 2023, the UAE’s gaming market is projected to reach over 306 million USD.” As such is the reaction of the KSA regarding what the UAE is giving us and is Google merely the facilitator? I get the 90% bit, I consider myself a gamer, but that is not my professional setting (it was not possible to be a professional gamer when I was young), so they have other professions as it will be in the KSA, yet to be a professional esports person, making it your full time career requires other elements and when you consider these parts the numbers do not add up, not in the frontal version and not in the aftercare (power needs). 

In the end, we will have to wait to see what the MENA Gaming Summit in 2023 actually ends up being. We will see, it will be soon enough.

Enjoy the weekend now starting near you.

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June 14, 2023 · 01:11

There is a larger play

Something stirred in me when I saw the article (at https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2023/jun/13/saudi-arabia-golf-pga-tour-public-investment-fund) called ‘Saudi golf takeover is blueprint for what they want to do everywhere else’ and I had some issues with this. You see, we might give credence to “Players who had turned down eye-moistening sums of Saudi money out of what they laughably believed was a reciprocated loyalty to the PGA Tour found out, like everyone else, when their phones started pinging”, as well as “Even most of the PGA Tour board had no idea what was happening. Does this strike you as the behaviour of a regime concerned with winning hearts and minds? The brazenness, the wall of silence, the smoke and mirrors, the decision to present this deal to the world as a fait accompli: this is all part of the performance. The projection of power matters as much as the power itself. It says to the world: we bone-sawed a journalist, we bought golf and you didn’t even know anything was happening”. And there is more when you read the article. The largest stage is not set and not given. The largest set is that the US and EU are broke. They give a nice presentation, but the largest stage is that they are broke and the sports need to survive. As such the players, the teams and the largest settings are moving house. F1 is going because the middle east is almost the only one who can play jet set with money. Football is much harder, but the players that matter are moving house. They can try to be prima donna in a saturated world, or they can be the shining star in a place where they are alone. They can spread their wings and perhaps become a little better, or create the next generation of winners. Ronaldo and Messi are examples. The NHL is losing people to the UAE and the Middle East. Pakistan is becoming a more fearsome adversary in Cricket and that list goes on. The PG is merely one example and soon the NBA will see players go to the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The middle east is becoming a sports contender and whilst we are all wondering why. Consider that these sports wanted inclusion and that is what the KSA and UAE did. Soon the KSA will have a new English news channel and I reckon about that time they will be casting sports to anyone interested in sports. A new conversation on topics we heard for decades and people will pay attention. Consider that we will get (in English) Arabic newscasts on sports and now the advertisers will take notice. These two players played the long game and the advertisers will come around. This is a given, they will go where the people are and the people want sports. It is a game that the Middle East plays well and they played it well now. The channels lost credibility, they lost teams and sports and now the harvest for the new channels will come in. Add to that the Vision 2030 by the KSA and you get to see a new stage, and in all that the interest in Islam will flourish too. The Christians who are hating everything will lose more and more. Doubt that? Look at Florida. People in Nazi outfits in front of Disney world parading? That is what remains of the US. A place no one wants anymore and the Middle East is enjoying every Karen and dopey video that graces TikTok and YouTube. The aversion against the US and EU is growing. Everyone is shouting and no one is speaking sense and the Middle East is cleaning house because of it. 

So how long until places like the UK and Australia will wonder how the Dubai White Bears are doing and what the scores are for the Emirates Hockey League this week. They will still watch their own teams, but there is a shift happening and it is happening all over the sports world. It is not merely Saudi Arabia, there are more. The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) is growing visibility and that is merely one of many. Until recent no one had heard of Fayik Abdi. In 2022 at Beijing Olympics he finished 44th out of 91 competitors. A man from a place where there is no snow is now in the top 50 best ski contenders in the world. Let that sink in. He beat a whole range of people who get to practice it every day, they are from places where there is snow most of the year and a Saudi surpassed them. Our view of the Middle East is off by a lot and we have been lied to by the church since 1094. We are set in a view that no longer applies. The Middle East can ad is becoming more and more a contender in sports we never considered was a threat to anyone from our local stages. Art Schenk (NL), Andrew Symonds (AUS), Lucas Braathen (NO) will soon see new contenders for top spots. Sports fans will cheer Fayik Abdi (KSA), Babar Azam (PAK) and Juma Al Dhaheri (UAE) that too is the consequence of inclusion. And the sooner we learn that anyone can play sports, the sooner you learn that these steps we see now are a natural next step in sports. We might focus on the money, but that is merely a sidestep. How much attention did the PGA get? Who now could afford to play golf? The media focusses on on every scandal it can, because scandals are emotion and emotions relate to clicks. So how many non-scandal related sports stories have you seen in the last week? When was it about the joy of a sport? Who remembers what the BBC reporter Andrew Jennings brought to light? 

Sports is not merely in turmoil, the fans are seeking a way to actually enjoy sports, something they get less and less of. And all the providers are charging for the ‘honour’. As I see it the Middle East has a larger advantage coming their way. But that is merely my point of view.

Enjoy today.

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June 7, 2023 · 20:40

The boom what?

Yes, a few hours ago, the AL-Monitor gave me the news (and anyone else who reads it) that ‘Canada’s arms exports boom to Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar’ (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/canadas-arms-exports-boom-saudi-arabia-israel-qatar) now you think this is great news (as in size of the news), but you would be wrong. Canada, the other commonwealth nations as well as America are waking up to the coffee (optionally served by Tim Horton himself). When we read “most of the shipments coming from a $15 billion contract reached in 2014 but only approved for export by Canada’s current government” and you consider ‘Is it too little, too late?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/02/is-it-too-little-too-late/), which I wrote on June 2nd and you take the scale of the setting, you will see just how desperate the US is at present. Is it that Saudi Arabia is siding with BRICS? Is it because Saudi Arabia decided to cut production by a million barrels per day? Your guess is as good as mine, yet this is the setting and the Canadian BS line that it only got approved by the current government does not compute with me. This is the result of bad management on too many levels of US administration and now that the end-line is in view and the US is seeing that several nations, and a few not friendly to America are ahead of them. They are trying whatever they can to avert disaster and I am not sure if that is even possible at present. As I personally see it, China played the long game and they are now the expected winning team. Ahead in defence contracts with the KSA, ahead with infrastructure contracts with the KSA and Telecom contracts and now that the others are waking up, we get “The aims of Blinken’s trip, analysts say, include regaining influence with Riyadh over oil prices, fending off Chinese and Russian influence in the region and nurturing hopes for an eventual normalisation of Saudi Arabian-Israeli ties.” What a surprise! I wrote on June 3rd in ‘Would you believe that?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/03/would-you-believe-that/) where I mentioned Russia, China and Iran. I also gave a list where we see these 4 points now directly or indirectly mentioned. 

2. Oil prices.
3. BRICS membership.
4. Defence spendings lost.
5. Iranian diplomatic settings.

And it does not end there. The article (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/7/blinken-starts-saudi-arabia-visit-aimed-at-steadying-relations) also gives us “Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Washington, DC-based think tank, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that discouraging a closer Saudi Arabian-Chinese relationship is probably the most important element of Blinken’s visit.” With the underlining “[Blinken should explain] why Chinese interests do not align with Saudi Arabia and why closer relations in a strategic way inhibit closer relations with Washington”. You see, here is the delusional stage. They are thinking that America still has options. I personally believe it is too late for that, if that was the case then this stage would be handled in 2019 (2015 would have been better), not in 2023. As I see it China merely waited for the US and EU bungle this to the largest degree and that happened in 2020 as China successfully courted The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for a whole range of issues and with the US president labelling the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia a pariah, that moment was reached. It wasn’t merely the straw that broke the camels back, it inhabited the entire convoy of Camels and now the end-game is coming into focus. For me (where I am now) it would in part be nice if Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) pulls it off, but he will have to sweeten the deal by a massive amount, not merely 1-2 promises, but a whole range of issues on paper signed by the president of the United States and here Congress, as well as the Senate better get out of the way, the loss will be too great if they bungle this. Still the chances of success are slim as I see it. Too much has passed and even as the United Nations played its anti-Saudi cards it might not be enough. As such a whole range of issues that got started by a United Nations essay by someone no one cares about, just like that columnist, that names eludes me for now.

More of my ‘insane predictions’ as some trolls would say are now a matter of fact and slowly we see the facts placed on papers as what is ‘stated’, but last week there was none of this. As such is the media doing its job? Are they looking into matters? What else are they missing? For me the case does not change much, other than the chance that Amazon wakes up to the billions they are missing out of, for me Tencent Technologies is a viable solution, it might cost me a little, but that is nothing to what Amazon and Facebook will lose out of. Google decided not to go ahead in this direction and as I am seeing certain players evolving ideas I had on a few occasions, the timing is decent (but it could have been better), still in light of where America is heading, I should be thankful for every dollar I will get out of this deal and as I see it time is growing shorter and shorter. Still as we see America trying to avoid sinking on the spot, we are all in decent fear of how it hits us, because there is no way that the western world (as well as most Commonwealth nations) will not get hit to some extent. All because we had faith in ego driven idiots (sorry, I meant politicians).

So, how is all this playing out for you?

Enjoy the midweek, we are now at 50% of the next weekend timeline.

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June 4, 2023 · 22:24

Within a day

I wrote a few things regarding BRICS in the last two days and now (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/iran-saudi-arabia-uae-attend-brics-meeting-south-africa-bloc-mulls-expansion#ixzz83fKlbzuL) we see ‘Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE attend BRICS meeting in South Africa, as bloc mulls expansion’, so I admit that I didn’t see Iran to become part of that, but the UAE is a nice addition, it also changes the game. Not sure if Iran should be part of it, but that might appeal to both the KSA and the UAE. So when we see ““The world has faltered in cooperation. Developed countries have never met their commitments to the developing world and are trying to shift all responsibility to the global South,”Pandor said. Upon his departure from Tehran, Amir-Abdollahian hailed BRICS as a body that represents half of the global population and called his visit an example of Iran’s “active presence at international bodies” and a step in Iran’s “balanced” foreign policy.” We might see one thing, think another and wonder what is real. I wonder what Iran is doing there. Are they on invitation to settle Russia, or is Iran there to appease the Middle East? I have no idea, but I would consider that there are other more qualified nations than Iran, Indonesia for one. So is it about the powerpoint of oil? Your guess is as good as mine, but the idea that UAE would be coming is now a reality. The BBC did not mention that. As such are the sources of AL-Monitor better, or had the west filtered out Iran? I honestly do not know, but the photo from June 2nd implies that the BBC filtered out certain names. As such I was not aware of UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan and I only aw this article a few hours ago. Yet there too we see the stage of BRICS. If the western media cannot tell us the truth, when they rely on censorship and editing to give us adjusted filtered information, who are we telling other nations what to do? We see the attacks on China, Russia and the Middle East and yes, I do not disagree, but when we do the same, is this not the media station of the pot calling the kettle black? 

So when we get “In a pre-recorded interview broadcast on state TV after his departure, Amir-Abdollahian said that a key topic on his agenda in Cape Town would be “de-dollarization” in trade with BRICS member states.” What can we object to? The US is broke, it is merely sailing from debt ceiling raise to another debt ceiling raise. It has no exit strategy and did not have any for well over a decade as it caters to political ego and the rest of the world is awaiting actual action. Well, that setting will kind of explode in our faces as China will do what is best for China and the western world does not count there. It is harsh, but we let our politicians make it that way. So what is next? That depends on how BRICS will go about it. It is dependent on how they decide to hurt or restrict the moves by the US, and no matter how that slides it will hurt Japan in massive ways (which will please China). But beyond that there is no telling what will happen. I still think it was a mistake for them to add Russia in its current shape, but that is not up to me. I reckon that the country to can keep tabs on beats the one they cannot and it is a wisdom that is beyond me, BRICS is giving Russia a stronger voice which in current settings is not good, but that is me talking. 

My mind flies over the setting of “de-dollarisation” and how it will take form. But at present I have no idea, I will need to seek out as much information as I can. 

Enjoy the last day of the weekend, Monday is coming.

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June 3, 2023 · 23:37

Would you believe that?

That was my very first thought when I saw (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/2/blinken-to-visit-saudi-arabia-to-discuss-strategic-cooperation) ‘Blinken to visit Saudi Arabia to discuss ‘strategic cooperation’’. There we are given “Blinken will “discuss US-Saudi strategic cooperation on regional and global issues and a range of bilateral issues including economic and security cooperation”, the State Department said in a statement.” I have an actual hard time believing that. You see there are a number of issues that count for the US.

1. Banking instabilities.
2. Oil prices.
3. BRICS membership.
4. Defence spendings lost.
5. Iranian diplomatic settings.
6. Syrian diplomatic settings.
7. Outstanding US bonds with the KSA.

These are just 7 issues of a whole range of problems that the US is facing ever since they burned their ally the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The fact that Saudi Arabia walked away from Credit Suisse is making the US rather nervous. They had this idea that when the going gets tough, the purse of Saudi Arabia is there to bail them out. That is not (or no longer) a given. The oil prices are biting the US and cheaper oil is for them essential, even though Brent Crude Oil is doing close no nothing to stop that pain. Then the new issue erupts and I mentioned this yesterday. BRICS is no longer on the sidelines. It wants the western worlds to adjust their views and they now have the muscle to do that, with Saudi Arabia added they will also have the money to do that. I personally think that Saudi Arabia will have a close ally, as such the UAE might become a member too. So now you see how the words of Italy are too little and too late (see my article 2 days ago). 

Then the think I mentioned a few times, as China gets the Saudi Defence spendings, the US will come up short and that bites as well and these are the biggest issues for the US, as such Iran is hardly a blip. OK, it is more but only when the world sees that when you are broke you cannot push for economic sanctions on Iran (Russia too) and it is already selling oil to India or Pakistan (not sure who) and China, so that marble is faltering nicely. Then there is Syria and the largest issue are the outstanding bonds that the US sold. I actually do not know how many the KSA or Kingdom Holdings have, but if they flood the markets they will lose money and it will be disaster for the US, who will run out of cash long before Q3 2024. Which means they are 1-2 quarters short, or perhaps better stated at the end of their wallets they need to survive another 2 quarters. Good luck with that idea in the US. 

So when we see the Al Jazeera article and many others on why Blinky Tony is going to Riyadh, I feel certain that there is a lot more going on that w are being told. And I feel certain that it is not on the media. I feel that the White House administration will never admit to this Oliver Twist moment with “Can I have some more please?” No one would admit to that, it is just a little weird to see the entire BRICS setting a day early and now we get this. 

And he has more on his plate. We get that with “attend Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) talks during his visit, starting on June 6”. I reckon that is when he will make mention of two variables (Iran and Syria). It is speculation, but that is what I (with no diplomatic knowledge) would do.

I reckon that this is one of the hardest times for the US State department ever. It did not help that it was this president who stated to make Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah. So how is that working out?

Enjoy the weekend.

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June 2, 2023 · 01:36

Is it too little, too late?

That is at times the question. What I think does not matter, I can be opinionated. Yet that part is still part of the speculative side that I walk. Only those who are in power in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can actually state what is real. The rest including those think tanks are clueless. Well, think tanks have a deeper generic knowledge, as such it is no longer speculation, it is presumption. It is knowledge based on data and knowledge they have, it is more accurate than speculation, but how much more is depending on the political hands that they also feed. 

As such Reuters gave us (at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-ends-yemen-linked-embargo-arms-sales-saudi-arabia-2023-05-31/) ‘Italy ends Yemen-linked embargo on arms sales to Saudi Arabia’ this is good for Italy and it will help the EU, but how much? That remains to be seen. This 11th hour turnaround might have som impact, but will it be enough. For it to matter the UK needed to come across months ago and they didn’t and now China has the bulk of the orders ready for consideration. Italy as such might get some, but will it be enough and there the setting of ‘too little too late’ comes into play. Even as they include the UAE, the setting was always going to be the massive billions that the KSA had to spend and even as we consider that the KSA expenditure reached $75 billion last year, most of it is now going towards China. A safe bet is 40%-50%, but I reckon that China stands to gain up to 70%, all that revenue lost to the US, UK and the EU. The losses for these three are likely THAT big. Mine is not presumption, I do not have certain access. It is speculation at best, but how wrong do you think I am? We saw the courting by Chinese officials in 2021 and 2022 and now that they have made their impact Italy is now ending its embargo with a nice “praising Saudi Arabia’s recent peace mediation efforts”? Who are they kidding? The UK handed their revenue to the tea grannies of the CAAT, well a lot of good that did, China just took over and now none of them have anything to tell anyone. Well CAAT can state that they kept their heads high, so when OPEC adheres to the need of Just stop oil and 250K barrels a day go to China instead of the UK, what will have been achieved? I can tell you, nothing. Nothing will have been achieved, but the quality of life in the UK will go down further. 

We see now all kinds of changes and whilst the political arms give lame excuses all around us, the reality is that we opened our big mouths and there is a cost to that, but when the coffers are empty like most coffers in the US, the UK and most EU countries the cost of living will bite more and more. I tried to warn you all for at least three years and these options are all scuttled and they will not mature. So as Italy is making its step hoping there is some time left, I wonder if there was any time left. It is my speculative view that this is too little and it is way too late, but then my speculation could be wrong. You tell me, I honestly am not certain at present. 

Enjoy the day, the day before the weekend is merely one day away.

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May 11, 2023 · 00:38

The bigger shift

The news that caught me today is (at https://dohanews.co/saudi-arabia-mulls-launch-of-english-news-channel-to-rival-al-jazeera-reports/) giving us ‘Saudi Arabia mulls launch of English news channel to rival Al Jazeera’. I actually originally got it from the Financial Times, but they are behind a paywall, so I cannot use them as a source. So Saudi Arabia is now considering an English News Channel. This changes things. First E-Sports, now sports (Messi And Ronaldo), Formula one and now we get “A Saudi state-backed media organisation is considering the development of an international English-language news station, seen as an effort to counter Qatar’s flagship Al Jazeera network and boost the kingdom’s media influence”. I personally think that there is another reason. You see, if tourism develops in Saudi Arabia, the need for an English Channel rises and it’s need will rise exponentially. It also allows to dig into advertisement funds that have been denied them for decades. You see, the advertiser goes to where the people and the money is. The money is already in Saudi Arabia, but soon so will be the people. The stages of sports will allow Saudi Arabia exclusive news channelling and that leads to more revenue and more visibility. Even as we are given “The Saudi Research and Media Group reportedly approached media consultancies to assess the viability and scope of the endeavour, according to a number of people familiar with the project, the Financial Times reported. They said it will be the second-largest English-language broadcaster in the Arab world, after Al Jazeera English, although the preparations are still in the early stages.” And this is not all, there is another reason. As western media ‘embraced’ their Share holder, stake holder and advertiser approach to filtering information. They lost credibility and the audience. Most places no longer call it news, they refer to it as information entertainment (Fox anyone?) In addition to this, the west would finally get real information on Aramco (not filtered by Brent), on SAMI (not filtered by the pentagon) and sports. It would even propel interest into things like Camel racing, the Emirates Ice Hockey League and from that we could see the development of a Saudi Ice Hockey league. We know that they are still not a member of the International Ice Hockey Federation, but to see Saudi Arabia grow teams in Jeddah, Dammam and Riyadh, taking on the UAE teams from the Emirates Hockey League (EHL). We could see names like Abu Dhabi Scorpions, Abu Dhabi Storms, Al Ain Theebs, Dubai White Bears, Dubai Mighty Camels propel all over the western TV stations. 

If the west is embracing sports Saudi Arabia has the making to replace a whole collection of news channels that lost too much credibility. And it isn’t merely influence. As I personally see it the KSA lacks perception and awareness in the view of the non Arabian people and this could be a first step to open that door. Beyond that there are several markets where the KSA could set foot into and in this world in this current economic climate that will go a long way, what is important that the first steps are made setting the larger stage towards doing something and that is where it is at. Will it happen? This happening is a logical step after setting claims towards E-sports, Formula 1, Football and Ice hockey. Beyond that is the stage where the people will get first looks on the Line (that long building) and several other innovations coming towards us from Saudi Arabia. 

A bigger shift is underway and the US with their deceptive ‘entertainment’ like Fox and even CNN, they will have nothing to counter it. In the last 5 years they wasted too much credibility opening the door to other players and as I see it the KSA stands to add an audience of close to half a billion in the first 2 years, would you like to see the advertisement money on that pool? 

Enjoy the day before Friday.

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March 29, 2023 · 00:44

The snooze that does not wake

It started some time ago, but the recollection that The Conversation gave me was enough. I saw the message around 05:00, as such I needed some time to recollect the information. But we get to that in a moment. The Conversation (at https://theconversation.com/as-longterm-partnership-with-us-fades-saudi-arabia-seeks-to-diversify-its-diplomacy-and-recent-deals-with-china-iran-and-russia-fit-this-strategy-202211) gives us ‘Saudi Arabia seeks to diversify its diplomacy – and recent deals with China, Iran and Russia fit this strategy’ It sounds simple enough, but it is not. You see, the story gives more than one quote that is important. I prefer to focus on “Riyadh and other Gulf capitals as leaders began to question U.S. credibility as a reliable regional partner” that was the gemstone not the only one, but this one matters. You see, you cannot deny allies the needs they have and then make demands from them as an ally. Like cheap oil. Saudi Arabia wanted to grow its national defence systems and America said, well,  one part said yes and then congress said no, America said no. So now we take a small trip. A trip to ‘The Persian Gulf match’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/06/06/the-persian-gulf-match/) which I wrote on the 6th of June 2019, almost 4 years ago. There I wrote “The actions of the American US Congress have shown that what they regard as being an ally is not what an ally is; it is not even what a wannabe ally would consider to be. As such apart from your advancement in technology and infrastructure a much larger foundation for your national defence is seemingly essential in the immediate future. The shown delays that the European Union have shown to be regarding Iran, Turkey and terrorist organisations like Hezbollah give rise to the essential need of China to become part of that solution.” It was part of a concept letter addressed to the Saudi Royal family. I wrote this almost 4 years ago and now we see this coming to fruition. Saudi Arabia is on the verge of buying a renewal of military goods from China, not the EU and not the US, setting their coffers back close to 20 billion. And now the stakes are increasing.

This is seen when Reuters informs us that Saudi Arabia is agreeing to build a new petrochemical refinery in China. The stage is that the two refineries will be able to process over 500,000 barrels a day. The fine print is not known, but I am willing to make a serious bet that China will soon get its hands on 500,000 barrels a day extra and I feel certain that this will come off the allotted amount for the EU and the US. I warned several times of this danger between 2019 and 2023, look it up, it is done in clear print (at www.lawlordtobe.com). I did not see the refineries in that mix, but for some strange reason Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud will not tell me what goes on in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, what a surprise. But the larger stage is now taking shape. First the defence industry, then other enhancements and now the reduction of oil towards the west. That was the danger stage we all faced since 2019, and US congress and other Americans wanted to play egomaniac, they were the strength of the world. Guess what, you need money to pull that off and America only has debts, which now is about $30,000,000,000,000 and there is no way back. That stopped a year ago when America forfeited billions in revenue and that list is merely increasing. Now that China has a firm grip on opportunities all over the Middle East their goal is merely increasing. And I tried to warn people of this, I tried to warn the UK to step in or lose it all and as the Typhoon didn’t make the Saudi choice, I reckon they are missing out too.

The setting is “U.S. credibility as a reliable regional partner” that is what President Biden needs to resolve and he needs to resolve it now, any opposition from Congress and the problem merely grows and accelerates. That was what I saw in 2019, that is what is happening now. A stage clearly foreseen and ignored by the US windbags. To be honest I had hoped to serve Saudi Arabia in some capacity and optionally score 3.75% commission, which does not seem much, but over a billion it is still $37 million and if the work is for more than a billion, that bonus merely increases and assures me of a nice retirement parachute. 

So how long until that refinery is build? How long until we get hit by the small print that well over 500,000 barrels of oil a day will go to China? I honestly do not know, but I reckon that this news gets heralded when the refinery is around 95% complete. The timeline? I cannot tell, can you?

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January 8, 2023 · 23:38

Is it me? It could be.

Today I saw (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64171008) the article ‘Amazon to axe 18,000 jobs as it cuts costs’. OK, they published it 2 days ago and I do not watch every site every moment of the day (I have an actual life). So consider that I wrote ‘Girdle your loins’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/11/30/girdle-your-loins/) which was roughly 3 months after it was offered to three parties. It represents $6 billion in the first phase and up to $20-$40 billion in the second phase. Can anyone tell me why two days ago we get to see “Amazon plans to cut more than 18,000 jobs, the largest number in the firm’s history, as it battles to save costs”, here I was thinking that my idea could have saved these jobs and now that Tencent is 9-15 months away the options for Amazon are diminishing. Then there was ‘Overlooking the obvious’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/06/22/overlooking-the-obvious/) which actually also refers to an earlier article. There I set a stage with optional close to a billion in revenue with optional new corridors for AWS to grow, and with a new stage where we see a new need fro hardware and advertisement in new directions, Google isn’t even there yet. That billion was based on almost 200,000 malls globally, 116,000 of them in the US and that is before you realise how many stores players like Zara, Gap, Sephora, Apple, Victoria Secrets, Country life and that list goes on and on. So is it me or are these players too lazy, too cowardly and not in the right stage of play? And that is not even considering the hardware people might want, the options that are related to it and even several IP options that are not on anyones dance card at present. What are they doing? They are axing 18,000 jobs and they leave billions on the floor? What kind of technology firm is that? 

Now, you might think that I am delusional and I would think that too, but I refer to things I wrote in the past, something that could grow into a $20 to $40 billion A YEAR market. So tell me, how delusional am I? So I could be crazy, but I see clearly where this is going and even as there is some small risk (there always is), the fact that Amazon left it on the street gives me pause to think that they have a lot more problems and optionally different ones. Optionally it is in a direction I never considered. That is not their fault, it is not my fault, but they left billions on the street (as I personally see it) and there is even more IP (a little more risk), but as Meta becomes a reality it represents an optional $2.3 billion (my initial max assessment of the IP) as well. So as I take notice of “Boss Andy Jassy cited the “uncertain economy” for the cuts, saying it had “hired rapidly over several years.”” And there was me thinking he was on the ball. So even as I am not debating that decision, the idea of leaving that much on the floor, enough to give most of them an alternative and an alternative setting towards the future on a global scale implies that someone is not drinking the proper gatorade and they are going for the dodgy stuff, but that is my view on the matter and I could be wrong. I admit that part. When certain Big Tech (not Microsoft), the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Kingdom Holdings give no response it is time to consider that I am the one who is wrong, but I feel that I am not, my mind is still mauling the designs over and over and seeing more and more improvements, even with Real estate sides, with 5G wearables that are not on any list at present. I believe that either I am a bigger dreamer than Jules Verne, or I am onto something. OK, lets be clear Jules Verne came up with the idea of a rocket to the moon long before WW2, as well as a submarine when it was still not possible to have one for such trips. The USS Nautilus, the first nuclear submarine was launched in 1954, half a century AFTER Jules Verne passed away. So I might be a bit arrogant, but I see solutions that could impact the Line (KSA), malls and new forms of advertisement and none of those are part of the up to $40 billion (my maximum expectation), but that too is under debate. Yet that number is based on part of a 1.8 billion Muslim population and Tencent is a mere 15 months away at the most to do what I foresaw was going to happen one way or another. 

So, is it me? It could be. Yet I personally feel that this is not the case. As I see it some people have no idea what is possible and they are merely faking it for now. So what will they do when Tencent comes in and takes it all? Give you a lame excuse that they do not understand the technology? I will let you decide, but consider what we clearly see and what I published over the last two years. Yet, feel free to consider that it is alas, but these 18,000 people will have to go. There is no shortage for workers, is there? 

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December 12, 2022 · 10:44

Dopey and Grumpy, still dwarves

That is the setting and it is a strange setting, but it relates to ‘When it rains we call the kettle black’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/12/11/when-it-rains-we-call-the-kettle-black/) which I wrote two days ago. Yet I did not know there was more, and just now I come across ‘Saudi Arabia demanded defense firms set up in country by 2024. So far, most seem unmoved’ (at https://breakingdefense.com/2022/12/saudi-arabia-demanded-defense-firms-set-up-in-country-by-2024-so-far-most-seem-unmoved/), to be honest, I had heard some stuff in that direction, but I was unaware of how deep it went, and now I see “as long as it is related to the government contracts, they will have to have their regional headquarters here”, with the added “analysts said that the biggest players appear confident they can find workarounds — including the use of local partnerships and subsidiaries, as they’ve done in other countries — to keep the market open” and there the stupid factor comes into play. You see the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has had enough of fake allies, fake commitments and now China is ready to make commitments and as the KSA is moving towards the 2030 mark of 50% in country defence and China is willing to play nice, the US is set to lose a whole lot of revenue. So there is your workaround, greedy and stupid working in cahoots like Grumpy and Dopey, both sides of a currency that has no meaning where they are, it is the sales prospects that counts and they are giving it all to China. You can only be the biggest player if you sell and there were markers for sale events and now there is a clear understanding in strategic papers no less that China is moving into sales column A. So when we think through what Breaking Defense gave us on December 8th, the US better realise that the age of pretending to do something and doing something else as a workaround is ending and it is ending really quickly. So when we see the larger players like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Northrop Grumman, Leonardo, Thales, and General Dynamics. What happens when the representative $27,000,000,000 goes to China? Twenty Seven Billion no longer to the US, the dollar will take another dive and more importantly, the design of their stealth planes required some Saudi Funds, when they go to the Chengdu J-20, the impact will be seen all over the US, EU and NATO. I made mention of these dangers as early as September 2021. The fact that some American Fat Cats were playing stupid with a customer paying billions is a little new, but there is no surpassing the union of stupid and ego, it makes for a nice package, one that China could be enjoying a lot more than they figured on. And there is a chance that the strategic union between Saudi Arabia and China will go that far. Not only will the US lose their Middle East stage, they will in that same action lose whatever benefits they had in Egypt as well. And just to remind you on a speculative side. If China buys in this deal 2 million barrels a day from the American stack, the US is in deep manure. It does make the grass grow in Texas, but that is pretty much all it does. 

As such the last week has given us all kinds of revelations via several media sources. But the larger news is that State secretary Pompeo gives us ‘Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia a result of “bad American policy”’ and the bad news merely stacks. Yes Saudi Arabia is not squandering the connections with the US, their words and they are right. The US themselves are squandering it to China by playing chicken with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to appease their ego’s, and that is what is clearly in place and will shown over the next 13 months. You see, there will not be any 11th hour changes, if these regional HQ’s are not in place by December 2023 China will end up with a massive chunk of Saudi defence spending. China is happy with it, will the US be? I doubt it, but they catered to ego, so there you have it. It does not matter who Dopey and Grumpy are, in the end they were merely dwarves and as I see it, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is willing to make a large change and it will cost the US, it will cost them so much. I wonder how they will spin this loss, because at present that is exactly what it will become. A loss to their ally list, a loss to their economy and a loss of income. All handed to China for the mere satisfaction of ego. Government handed partnerships to players like Microsoft, Sony, Samsung and a few other players for the cumulative sum of a mere 1% of that, did you think the Saudi Government wasn’t keeping tabs? Silly bunnies!

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