Tag Archives: Microsoft

December 28, 2025 · 14:13

Are doornails really dead?

I got a nice surprise today. I got a story (at https://www.engadget.com/gaming/xbox/2025-was-the-year-xbox-died-130000467.html), the only inaccuracy I think is that the contraption was dead already, for about 2 years. So I got to wonder. What happened to:

Mojang studios (Mincecraft) $ 2.5 billion
ZeniMax Media, Bethesda $ 7.5 billion
Activision/Blizzard $68.7 billion

Which gives us $78.7 Billion and it shouldn’t be allowed to go into a bad bank, that interest is still due. The last purchase was only completed in October 2023. So what happens, sell it to Saudi Arabia? The interest (said to be around 5%) implies that Microsoft is still meant to pay $3.935 billion interest on an annual basis and there is no way it gets to be reflected away, although I might advise Saudi Arabia in particularly Minister Majid bin Abdullah Al Qasabi that he should not offer a Halala over $50 billion for the entire package. I don’t think Microsoft is allowed any leeway for their intentional stupidity. That being said, they bought Mojang studios in 2014 and they did mighty fine work on their Minecraft product, including the PS5 (which still needs the PS4 disc), but that is small fry. The result is truly amazing and the fact that it is still one of the most popular games on any console is due to the Microsoft teams and credit where credit is due I say. Still, as the optional spokesperson for Saudi Commerce, I think it is essential that the Saudi Fleet of airplanes need to be give to all its Microsoft 2024 Flight Simulator players free of charge the fleet of planes that are part of the Saudia airlines, which consists of Airbus A320-200, Airbus A330-300, Boeing 777-300ER, Boeing 787-9 and Boeing 787-10, as well as include the King Abdulaziz International Airport (Jeddah) and the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh in the base setting of the Flight Simulator 2024. I think that Saudi Arabia is due some VIP treatment if Microsoft wants to flog away their failures. I think that Saudi Arabia is due that privilege. 

I think if you want the grease the wheels of commerce, you better take out your best effort, but that is merely me speaking. This all started in 2013 when they upset the gaming industry, by thinking they could strong-arm gamers towards the Xbox, whilst they never actually understood gamers (I point to the Don Mattrick, the former president of Microsoft’s Interactive Entertainment Business, widely remembered for controversial stupid statement of “Fortunately we have a product for people who aren’t able to get some form of connectivity, it’s called Xbox 360”) my response was ‘Fuck you Mattrick” and I placed a handful of gaming IP on my blogs for anyone not Microsoft. That’s how I react and these people are still welcome too all that, especially as the Xbox is now dead on arrival, a proper vivisectioned console at your local morgue. So whilst the article gives you “Xbox didn’t enter 2025 in a great state, and it’s leaving the year grasping for help, like an Arc Raider player desperate for a revival after being knocked out. Microsoft cancelled the Perfect Dark reboot and Everwild, two of the most interesting games in its weak upcoming slate. The company brought titles like Forza Horizon 5 over to the PlayStation 5, which prompted Engadget Deputy Editor Nathan Ingraham to declare he no longer needed an Xbox.” He never needed one and I did mine away years ago, it was just a dust collection setting and I merely held on to it because of Elite Dangerous and Subnautica, when they became available on PS4/PS5, the fate of my coaster to be (Xbox One) was set. Some regrets, but the Xbox360 was awesome, so not that much and it was my first setting for Oblivion and Skyrim, which I also have on Sony. We were also given “There was a chance for Microsoft to reinvigorate the Xbox brand with the ASUS ROG Xbox Ally and Ally X gaming handhelds, but the $600 and $1,000 launch prices placed them out of reach for most gamers. It also doesn’t help that Windows still isn’t well-optimized for portable devices with touchscreens, and those systems also aren’t compatible with older Xbox titles like the consoles. At the very least, Microsoft now has a handheld foothold. But a future portable Xbox console would need to be significantly cheaper to compete with the likes of the Steam Deck, which starts at $549 (following the discontinuation of the $400 LCD model).” But as I personally see it, Microsoft tends to lose interests in solutions that dos not make them shine and the Xbox had nearly rusted through as I personally see it, but there was the news which was available for about three days now and I had other matters on my mind, so it was a nice setting today, I was proved correct all along and as Saudi Arabia is vying to be a digital powerhouse, the setting if upgraded to a better shine, what was left of Microsoft games, might get a decent second life, but the additions to the Microsoft Flight-simulator 2024 will be required, although they might include it as a package deal for the nice price of $50 billion, not a penny more, including the Flight Simulator 2024 might make it worth the time of Minister Majid bin Abdullah Al Qasabi, but that is merely my view on the matter. And there is the setting we need to consider, the Xbox came to life (with massive help of Dwayne Johnson) and grew to new heights in 2005, it actually became a competitor to Sony and made Sony release the PS4 and PS5 with the immense upgrades. Gamers rejoiced and then in 12 years (due to Don Mattrick as I personally see it) it went from hightop to basement level bargain value. Still, I am not happy. Sony was better with Microsoft chasing its tail and that needs to be said and the results as we still see every day its awesome and as I see it, Todd Howard now needs to say the words “Elder Scrolls 6 is coming to Playstation” the Sony and the gaming world needs to hear those words. The Microsoft blame game of ‘perhaps’ and ‘we will service all gamers’ is disingenuous at best and not appreciated. 

So whilst we are given “Its partnership with AMD could easily lead to new handhelds, and it also gives Microsoft a leg up in producing a compact and powerful Xbox PC. After all, why should the company keep trying to go toe-to-toe with Sony’s closed PlayStation platform? Why shouldn’t Microsoft embrace its PC roots to give us a gaming desktop under our TVs? The company has already committed to bringing new Xbox games to PCs immediately, so the line between the two is already blurring. It may be a risk, but evolving into a PC proves there’s still life in the Xbox brand. And crucially, it’s also something Sony can’t easily replicate.” You see, the gamers feel betrayed by Microsoft, even those having an Xbox, they aren’t (don’t say ever in this case) going to trust Microsoft, they tried to play gamers and these players don’t like to be played, they take this personally and that is what Microsoft did in a few ways as I personally see it.

So you all have a good day and those owning a Playstation have pleasant dreams, because Microsoft just bought the bucket from Davey Jones locker. I reckon that this setting is hardest on Phil Spencer, who tried to do everything to make Microsoft gaming work. I think he did a fine job, but Microsoft overhead was ruled (as I see it) by Excel users and that goes against the grain of gamers. Have a great day today, my time for a late lunch now.

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December 25, 2025 · 21:44

The boat has left

That is a weird setting, but that might be the case for a lot of people. It is the Financial Express who gives us (at https://www.financialexpress.com/life/technology-ibm-to-skill-5-million-indian-youth-in-ai-cybersecurity-and-quantum-computing-by-2030-details-inside-4082018/) the headline ‘IBM to skill 5 million Indian youth in AI, cybersecurity and quantum computing by 2030’ you might think it is nothing to get hung over about, but you would be wrong. Even as some ‘claim’ to give good courses (some actually do), it is IBM who has had that inside track in several ways. As such (or perhaps to consider as I see it), the labour market will be drowning in Indian entrepreneurs by 2032 (and a whole before that). I reckon that these people will bolster the Indian go getter market and they will branch out to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and a few other places. As such if you think the US labour market is merely cooling, think again. These people will be highly wanted in India, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, UK, Australia, Canada and the EU long before we get to 2030. There will be an Indian wave of go getters all over the world and the places that needed to get active weren’t for much too long. So as we see “India possesses the talent and ambition to lead the world in AI & Quantum. Fluency in frontier technologies will define economic competitiveness, scientific progress and societal transformation,” said Arvind Krishna, IBM Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. “Our commitment to skill five million people is an investment in that future. By democratizing access to advanced skills, we are enabling the youth and students to build, innovate and accelerate India’s growth.”” And these people will be highly skilled in all things IBM (perhaps not in IBM Statistics or IBM Miner) but that is little cause for alarm. These people will also bring forth IBM skills and products, so this setting takes care of two pipelines, skills and products. And all that time AWS was hounding the AI field. It is nice, but as these people are highly skilled in whatever IBM holds, there is a mismatch on what is required. OK, that last part is speculative, but that is what I would do.

I reckon that Microsoft and OpenAI also might have a problem here. You see we also get “IBM also continues to strengthen school-level readiness by co-developing the AI curriculum for senior secondary students, along with teaching resources including the AI Project Cookbook, Teacher Handbook and explainer modules. These programs are designed to embed computational thinking and responsible AI principles early, while enabling teachers to deliver AI education confidently and at scale.” As such these people get a schooling in evolved from famous systems like Deep Blue and Watson and as such IBM provides a flexible ecosystem allowing choice from various foundation models (like Granite, Llama, Mistral). Whatever they partnered with doesn’t matter. This is the IBM show, partners take a second stage chair. And as I see it, IBM did something nicely spectacular because they get a choir of 5 million evangelizing Watsoners all over the world and in that instance Watson grows from niche to mainstream and that will feel good for all the shareholders who kept their trust in Arvind Krishna (I will give a nice ‘Well done sir’) in this instance. Because it is starting to look like the old premise ‘When two dogs fight over a bone, the third one takes it gone’ So in the fight we saw with OpenAI and Google, we now see that the future is banked on by IBM. This doesn’t make the others useless in any way, but IBM set the future towards Watson in a rather nice way and that has to count for something.

What a nice end of year this will be this year. Because at the drop of a hat, it wasn’t merely Google or OpenAI, as I see it now IBM because the third major player in this duet and as I see innovation, this is how innovative strides are made, by having to refocus your tasks, that is the real innovation maker in this world. 

A lovely ending to Christmas Day. Have a great upcoming boxing day you all.

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December 22, 2025 · 17:44

Why is a stage a stage?

That is at times a decent question. Even for me, because as I write this, I do so subjectively, nearly every writer does. Writer about his point of view and I am no better (or worse for that matter). It is the merging of two points of view and these points of view are others points of view and they have their own reasoning. It is not about good or bad, points of view almost never are in a set stage. But they must be watched as they influence your own point of view and whilst some are eager to give them all a one sided setting, I learned that this is not something that tends to help. Especially if points of view are multidimensional. As such, I give two points of view and blend them to my own stage.

The first was given by Yahoo Finance (at https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-oracle-became-a-poster-child-for-ai-bubble-fears-150039511.html) I don’t agree with that point of view but it was a decent setting of a stage. And stages are where we are.

The first setting gives us ‘How Oracle became a ‘poster child’ for AI bubble fears’ I don’t believe in that setting, but it matters for the whole story. “Oracle (ORCL) stock’s boom and bust in 2025 has become emblematic of the tech trade’s central conflict: Investors can’t decide whether AI is a generational opportunity or a looming risk.” But then we get “AI optimism continued to push Oracle shares higher following its quarterly earnings reports in June and September, with AI-driven deals set to push cloud segment revenue to $166 billion in 2030. The stock’s surge in September briefly made Ellison the world’s wealthiest person. But AI euphoria quickly gave way to doubt. Investors became increasingly concerned over the rising use of debt to fund tech firms’ AI spending, just as the payoff of that spending remains hotly debated. Those concerns are evidenced in the budding demand for Big Tech credit default swaps (CDS) — financial contracts that act as insurance by letting investors bet on the likelihood that a company will default on its debt.” And that setting is somewhat important, and for those who remember the 2008 crash, they fear the stage the the CDS and that is fine, I don’t think that this setting is great, but the stage of letting investors bet on the likelihood that a company will default on its debt is not really great, it is the stage where some will set or even orchestrate the need for some to fall and that is what makes the bubble burst and I gave that setting before (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/12/02/aftermath/) in the story ‘Aftermath’ where I highlighted parts of the equation. It is the second part that is the setting of the stage and it is about stages. You see, we all envision a stage whether it is the real stage sets part of the question and when we consider the stage we think matters, we might look at the size, the lighting or how we move on that stage. All matters for consideration but I digress. The second story was given to us by the Motley Fool (at https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/09/16/prediction-oracle-will-surpass-amazon-microsoft-an/) and there we get ‘Prediction: Oracle Will Surpass Amazon, Microsoft, and Google to Become the Top Cloud for Artificial Intelligence (AI) By 2031’ where we see “Oracle forecasts that revenue from its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) segment could grow from around $10 billion in its last fiscal year (fiscal 2025), to $18 billion in its current fiscal year (fiscal 2026), $32 billion in fiscal 2027, $73 billion in fiscal 2028, $114 billion in fiscal 2029, and $144 billion in fiscal 2030 — corresponding with calendar year 2031.” As well as “Oracle’s push into cloud infrastructure is arguably its boldest bet in the company’s history. Oracle isn’t cutting corners, either; it is bringing on dozens of data centers online in just a few years. It has built 34 multi-cloud data centers and should have another 37 online in less than a year.” Now we have seen two not aligned stages, but the actual stage it a lot larger. You see, the others all ‘want to align’ with Oracle, but that merely means that they want the solutions that Oracle has or get the customers that have selected Oracle, but the others forget something that matters. Oracle has been the data innovator for over 45 years and no one can touch what they achieved, even in the early 90’s they were the only one who could set tables within tables and it took others close to a decade to even get close. Azure, AWS and others never got ahead of Oracle, they merely reengineered what Oracle already figured out and there is more to come. 

You see the two stages are in a larger third stage and as I see it, Oracle has focussed on the data that is needed for DML and LLM settings, but they must know that actual AI requires more and it starts with two elements Verification and Validation. There two parts are the achilles heel for anyone making the statements that this is AI (which it is not) and no matter how much you train data sets, when Validation and verification are absent the GIGO law comes into play. It was uttered in the 60’s and means Garbage In, Garbage Out. Without Validation and Verification all data becomes part of the GIGO law. Most do not realise this, or they simply do not care, but Oracle figured this out long ago (A speculative thought) and we need to consider the Oracle might be trailing on some new technology, but they are ahead in many ways, more so than either Azure or AWS. And the largest settings we see at this point if that some are ‘gambling’ that Oracle messes up, but I think that is not the case. Oracle is hanging on and that is what matters. The data centers that are coming and that are build need to make money, but that is not the stage of Oracle, they got the equipment in, they got the software in and now as these centers start making money, Oracle gets their share and as such they are the facilitators of wealth and that is until there is an actual AI and as I see it, Oracle will be the only one who will set the premise of that and that is why Oracle will surpass all others. Even Google and IBM will seek the shores of Oracle. 

A stage that might take a while, but in all this, any training data centre will owe Oracle money (and a lot of it), so Oracle can play the long game, because in that stage only Oracle will come out on top. That is how is see the stage, the size a lot larger, the lights will put Oracle in the limelight and all others will remember why Oracle is the only one who is master of data storage technology and that is why I believe that the second is part of the real future of Oracle and whomever connects to Oracle. But in all this Oracle is the most essential data solution technology out there and when I saw the ‘negative’ settings around on December 2nd, I knew that it was doom speak of some for whatever reason they had. I knew that Oracle had a different future ahead of them, a much brighter one.

Have a great day, today was cooler, so I feel decently rested, but in these warm days before Christmas I rather miss the white cold of Sweden (or Canada). 

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December 21, 2025 · 22:59

The dice fell snake eyes

It is the setting I predict a few weeks ago and more less recent in the story ‘Eric Winter is a god’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/07/05/eric-winter-is-a-god/) in July 2023. I saw it coming this early in the race, why? Mainly because AI doesn’t yet exist, so whomever sells whatever solution they have as AI will set themselves up for a rather huge and nasty fall. In 2023 it was easy, in 1980 the movie the Changeling was released, giving the timelines then, the movie was made in 1979 and Eric Winter was born 17 July 1976, so what was a 2 year old doing in that movie? That is the simple setting of validating your data and that is why there is a case with what some now call AI. So now we get (at https://decrypt.co/353227/openai-microsoft-sued-over-chatgpt-connecticut-murder-suicide) ‘OpenAI, Microsoft Sued Over ChatGPT’s Alleged Role in Connecticut Murder-Suicide’ so when we see the setting in that case, there is more than just the bare minimums. This will imply engineers who programmed the setting, as we are given “In the latest lawsuit targeting AI developer OpenAI, the estate of an 83-year-old Connecticut woman sued the ChatGPT developer and Microsoft, alleging that the chatbot validated delusional beliefs that preceded a murder-suicide—marking the first case to link an AI system to a homicide.” I expected that we would have until 2026, but it never got that far and when the first trial starts, we will see aq whole range of class actions and other legal battles start, because as we are taught in Torts, go where the money is and OpenAI/Microsoft have plenty. As such there will be a whole range of cases being started. I reckon that there is a whole flock of ambulance chasers who will see this as their golden opportunity. And the more data is thrown around, the more intense the legal battles begin to emerge. A setting that was clear two years ago for me and as I found more than one setting that favors this, we merely have to look at sentences like “We rely on our AI to bring you [X]” the legal eagles see that as their way into your coffers and they have greedy hands, because that is what they were instructed to do. And when you consider “OpenAI faces numerous lawsuits, primarily revolving around copyright infringement for using vast amounts of online content (news, books, lyrics) to train AI models like ChatGPT, with major cases from The New York Times (NYT) and authors seeking damages and content bans, plus a recent German court ruling against lyric reproduction.” We see the setting that they either settle, or lose whatever data they have and there are numerous other settings that are thrown into the mix. And whatever is in the design law database, because there is every indication that these trademarks were also broken in numerous places and Microsoft has no place to turn, they are in it for the big bucks and whilst some are ‘driven’ to reconsider their options, the amount of people who are not considering that, is a growing amount of people smelling the scent of dollars and they are hungry. I reckon that those non-Americans are even more driven to those dollars than the Americans are. It comes down to (a massive speculation) that gets them up to 100 billion and that was before Sam Altman was hoping for a $800B incentive. That is the short and sweet of it, so as we look at the article seeing

““This is the first case seeking to hold OpenAI accountable for causing violence to a third-party,” J. Eli Wade-Scott, managing partner of Edelson PC, who represents the Adams estate, told Decrypt. “We also represent the family of Adam Raine, who tragically ended his own life this year, but this is the first case that will hold OpenAI accountable for pushing someone toward harming another person.”” You see, “first case that will hold OpenAI accountable for pushing someone toward harming another person” is a deeper step than some lawyer pushing that OpenAI was driving a person to some extend, that is no harm, or merely applied harm to self, do you have any idea how many lawyers will demand to see the algorithm and the programmer who wrote it? That will be a mess that takes almost years to sort out, in that same time, Google will progress Gemini 3 much further making OpenAI lose investors and they are as sketchy as they will ever be.

So whilst we see the sparks come, we will see a lot more issues surface and they are not all on OpenAI, but I reckon that some lawyers will play it that way, because that is where the money is. 

So you all have a great day, it is still 39 degrees in my living room so I am placing my mattress in the freezer, not sure how, but I need to get some sleep at this point.

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December 20, 2025 · 02:18

With media assistance

That is what I see and I might be wrong, but judge for yourself. There is plenty of evidence around. It all started with an article in Forbes (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2025/12/18/microsoft-updates-windows-to-stop-users-downloading-google-chrome/) where we were shown ‘Microsoft Updates Windows ‘To Stop Users From Downloading Google Chrome’’ so that doesn’t sound at all ominous. And it kinda reflects the setting I gave over 2 years ago with ‘Are they really?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/09/01/are-they-really/) which I gave onboard September 1st 2023. We are now given “Here we go again. “Microsoft is trying a new way to stop users from downloading Google Chrome.” We have seen this before. Just as with Apple, the two tech giants are pushing hard to keep users within their own walled gardens, on Safari and Edge. The latest news comes from Windows Report. “If you open the Chrome download page in Microsoft Edge, you may see a new banner at the top.” Instead of just presenting the usual Edge versus Chrome comparison, “Microsoft now focuses on protection.”” I would be the first to state that the statement is missing and they are actually meaning “Microsoft now focuses on protection of self” and it is a slippery slope. They can find the expert in France to find evidence that the bra size of Kim Kardassian is increasing, but they are not able to get a clear independent view of whatever OpenAI gives us against Gemini 3? Go Figure.

As such Forbes gives us “What’s most interesting is that Microsoft has usually stressed that Edge is built on the same Chromium base as Chrome, with all the benefits of Chrome, only better. “This time, those points are missing. The message stays centered on built-in safety features.”” Og course it is, Microsoft cannot allow for the people to gives them grounds of taking sides in that war, they have far too much riding on out, the revitalization of Clippy is on the line and if people (who are speculatively likely) to select Gemini 3 over OpenAI, the walls of Microsoft come crumbling down. They have trillions riding on this and as I see it (I have zero evidence) is that OpenAI underwhelmed whist Google is riding high, as such they have trillions riding on their bad sense of innovation.

And as I see it, it is really bad when they are repeating some of the settings they had in 2023 when edge was on the line, I reckon together with Xbox and Gemini they now lost for the third time, four times if you count AWS versus Azure. The once so highly Microsoft has now lost against Android, Google Search, Sony, Amazon and now against Gemini. A five times loser of technology. So whilst the media ‘accepts’ “Microsoft now focuses on protection.” The truth is predominantly ugly, the truth is that Microsoft is basically done for. 

And the media can hide behind their timelines when they ‘suddenly’ reveal an independent tester (one that meets with the approval of Microsoft) But it might be too little and too late for the media as well. 

So whilst Microsoft hides behind “Chrome attracts more security threat headlines than any other browser. This year, Cybersecurity News says, “Google addressed a significant wave of actively exploited zero-day vulnerabilities affecting its Chrome browser, patching a total of eight critical flaws that threatened billions of users worldwide.”

All these vulnerabilities were “high severity with CVSS scores averaging 8.5,” with the world’s most popular browser targeted “by sophisticated threat actors, including state-sponsored groups and commercial surveillance vendors.”” And weirdly enough, my Android is flying high using Google, the only threat I had for a while was influencers pushing me against my will towards Edge. As such there might be truth in the last statement, but I think Microsoft is overselling that idea. And as the evidence s shown to us, I really believe I am right all along. So as you might realise that Forbes hides behind their final words “As you see, none of this is clear cut.” I believe it is and it requires a true independent test of Gemini versus OpenAI. But perhaps I am oversimplifying the problem. I apparently tend to do that and it has nothing to do that I have been in IT for over 45 years. So you all have a great day, I finally look forward to some sleep. The temperature has dropped from over 30 degrees to 24 degrees and it is 02:00. And did you catch the one element Microsoft is leaving alone? It is that Apple is less of a threat than Google is, is it the 26 profiles of their Alphabet? I let you decide. I have seen the light and the seas of snores are beckoning me.

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December 18, 2025 · 23:58

The wrong focus

Two messages passed me by today. The first one was given to us by CNBC (at https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/12/17/oracle-stock-blue-owl-michigan-data-center.html) with the headline ‘Oracle stock dips 5% as Blue Owl Capital pulls out of funding $10 billion data center’ and I wonder why the headline wasn’t ‘Blue Owl Capital pulls out of funding $10 billion data center’ with the optional added “the project remains “on schedule” but that Blue Owl was out of funding talks.” And as we see “Blue Owl had been in talks with Oracle about funding a 1-gigawatt facility for OpenAI in Saline Township, Michigan, according to the Financial Times.” And when we see “the plans fell through due to concerns about Oracle’s rising debt levels and extensive artificial intelligence spending, the FT reported, citing people familiar with the matter. This comes as some investors raise red flags about the funding behind the rush to build ever more data centers. The concern is that some hyperscalers are turning to private equity markets rather than funding the buildings themselves, and entering into lease agreements that could prove risky.” I am wondering why the focus is Oracle and not Blue Owl Capital. Even as others give us ‘Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Is Down 7.1% After Liquidity And BDC-Merger Lawsuits Surface – What’s Changed’ (at https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/diversified-financials/nyse-owl/blue-owl-capital/news/blue-owl-capital-owl-is-down-71-after-liquidity-and-bdc-merg/amp) with “Blue Owl Capital has faced multiple securities class action lawsuits alleging that it misled investors about liquidity pressures tied to redemptions and the planned merger of its business development companies, following weaker-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results and contentious merger terms for OBDC II shareholders.” As well as “Beyond the legal claims, the controversy has highlighted how liquidity constraints, redemption limits, and potential valuation “haircuts” inside key private credit vehicles can affect confidence in Blue Owl’s broader fee-based asset management model.” So the setting could be “Oracle dips because Capital Asset Management cannot get their settings right” it is a speculative statement, but it does hold water in light of what we are shown, so why CNBC focusses on Oracle and not on Blue Owl Capital is beyond me. Is it because kicking a true innovator is more sexy than a Capital Asset Management player? I feel slightly protective of real innovators and as far as I can tell Oracle has been a power for innovation for over 45 years (yes I am that old).

So when we see “Blue Owl Capital’s narrative projects $4.2 billion revenue and $5.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 17.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $5.0 billion earnings increase from $75.4 million today.” And there is the real culprit, players like Blue Owl need to make money and the entire setting for what they call ‘AI’ will not show revenue for over 2 years and that is what is hampering these players (as I personally see it).

So when we see “The person added that Blue Owl was also concerned that local politics in Michigan would cause construction delays. Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks.” I reckon that Blue Owl will move out of at least one other project, as such some players need to step up and it goes without saying that these ‘money makers’ will see stretch marks in their projected revenue womb and it will be a nasty setting for those that are relying on profit per quarter and that was the setting I foresaw almost a year ago and a setting that will bare scrutiny because there are trillions invested and some makers of money will start to realise that as they aren’t making enough money for their shareholders, they will become nervous and as I see it, Google has the inside track now and those relying on OpenAI and Sam Altman will start to see their revenue falter, it is no longer a one player game and that is before we consider where Huawei is going in all this. 

The second article ‘Amazon Set to Waste $10 Billion on OpenAI’ (at https://247wallst.com/technology-3/2025/12/17/amazon-set-to-waste-10-billion-on-openai/) the question becomes. Is it really wasted? We see the first setting “OpenAI, which until recently has been the leading artificial intelligence (AI) company in the world, has raised money from a long list of investors. Some are venture capitalists who are simply writing checks to get returns. However, another list consists of money or strategic deals with Microsoft, Oracle, Softbank, Nvidia, and, soon, Disney.” This part raises a question “Some are venture capitalists who are simply writing checks to get returns” the question is part of a timeline. When they get the money is another part of this equation and time is  the factor that holds these money loving parties in check, or not as the timeline shifts towards 2028/2029. So as we consider “Bloomberg reports, “OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer’s effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp.” Amazon is a tiny player in the AI chip business. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) dominates, with a market cap of $4.33 trillion, which makes it the most valuable company in the world. Put plainly, the Amazon deal is part of the dangerous “round tripping” that goes on in the industry. One company invests in another. The company that gets the investment uses the money to buy products or services from the investor.” I see something else. Whilst we get that $4.33 trillion is an important part, the larger setting is becoming “Amazon deal is part of the dangerous “round tripping” that goes on in the industry” this implies that “a company selling “an unused asset to another company, while at the same time agreeing to buy back the same or similar assets at about the same price.”” I see it as double dipping, so we have now (apparently ) arrived to the point where the double dipping is greedily seen on 10 billion, whist the invested setting is over 900 times larger. I personally see that as a new venue towards the bottom of the creamy barrel that everyone wants to dip their wallet in, the setting is spend and the money is gone (or at least locked into a set stage of non-revenue) and that is the second setting I see breaking the economic settings apart in 2026, because this will erupt into something a lot less nice long before we reach 2027 and that is close to 2 years ahead of incoming revenue. Do you still think I am boasting? This is not a boast. It is disappointment, because that setting was clear to me almost a year ago when I wrote ‘And the bubble said ‘Bang’’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/29/and-the-bubble-said-bang/) So I saw this coming a mile away and the others were in the dark? I am not that intelligent, I am pretty clever sop these high paid economists should have see this long before me, or were they hoping that THIS time they could outsmart others? Greed is a vicious circle and will only propagate further greed a game without winners and all who play it lose, or they sell others down the river to get their goods. So how did that end in 2008? The movie Inside Job has a few markers, but who ended the game with a full purse tended to be awfully little and they wasted trillions on that idea and now we get a setting more intense and with more money at play all whilst the previous setting is still hurting a lot of people. Now, the impact will be a lot more dangerous with too many people relying on the setting others give whilst not giving them the full story. How does that usually go over?

A stage that could sink America as I see it, but perhaps I am just a radical depressed individual. Have a great day you all. My Friday begins in less than 5 minutes.

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December 17, 2025 · 21:24

The neighbors have coffee

That is the setting, but that is not what this is about. We are given a setting (at https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/trump-has-ordered-naval-blockade-of-sanctioned-oil-tankers-in-venezuela-he-says/gcrwrmllu) where we see ‘‘Act of war’: Trump orders blockade of ‘sanctioned’ Venezuela oil tankers’ and we see “But Trump on Tuesday pointed to another goal — regaining US access to Venezuelan oil production. The US armada “will only get bigger,” Trump said, until Venezuela returns “to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us.”” But is that true? At what point did Venezuela steal oil from America? Why assets did they steal? What land was stolen? Can we get a clear explanation of that? And if comes with two other settings. The US is pulling out all its troops out of Europe. And in the second setting we see today that one of the most successful American businesses is filing for Bankruptcy. Del Monte originated from California canners in the late 1800s, becoming a household name through the California Packing Corporation (Calpak). It has filed for bankruptcy due to the tariffs on fruits and aluminum. It drove them under in 6 months. And as I see it, a speculated setting is that President Trump will need to sue the BBC, because America is about to lose everything and not one intelligent being will do business with him beginning in 2026. 

As I said so before, America is done for and the longer everything is suspended in ‘investigations’ the longer it takes for the America people to see what hardship they are due for, not for a week or a month, but for several years and that is if someone takes over the helm of the good ship America and takes it in a 180 degree different course, there is no other way and even then it will take half a decade to clear the tourism setting that it now has and rebuild trust (which will speculatively take 3-5 years). 

So as we were given “But Trump on Tuesday pointed to another goal — regaining US access to Venezuelan oil production.” as well as “Caracas blasted Trump’s announcement on Tuesday, saying he aimed at “stealing the riches that belong to our homeland.” Venezuela has been sidestepping US oil sanctions for years, selling crude at a discounted price on the black market, mainly to China. Venezuela is estimated to have oil reserves of some 303 billion barrels, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) — more than any other nation. “If there are no oil exports, it will affect the foreign exchange market, the country’s imports … There could be an economic crisis,” Elias Ferrer of Orinoco Research, a Venezuelan advisory firm, told AFP recently.” As I personally see it (and I might be wrong) America is broke and it is about to lose whatever it has to pay for the interest on the loans they have. The Administration had a setting they tried and it backfired. Greenland isn’t giving up its land, Canada is turning down America and worse still, Canada is now making headway in impressive economic strides for Canada which is also hurting America. As I see it, the stage that was left was to ‘annex’ the Venezuelan oil fields. This is likely to fail, but more disastrous nearly all lands will gain mistrust of the American way which is now showing to be selfish at the expense of all others. That is as I see it the Legacy that President Trump is leaving behind and the sooner others see it the way (several already do) the more America sees the hurt it imposed on itself. 

And when places like Del Monte is filing for bankruptcy, it will not be alone ad the more these places are hidden due to ‘National Security’ or whatever reason is given and others are seemingly ready to follow. There is American Unagi, American Signature, parent company of furnishings retailers American Signature Furniture and Value City and more are on the list of those reading Chapter 11 of the book of economic hardship. All these facts are settings that give America a stage of disaster and the American administration remains in denial. 

Even if America succeeds with Venezuela, America is done for. No-one will trust America for decades. Not the EU, not the Commonwealth and parts of Asia will also shun America. And for a lot Canada is the more trustworthy option, so Canada will de decently well and as we recently saw Lockheed Martin is getting replaced by Saab AB and that is merely the tip of the iceberg. So whilst America withdraws the troops from Europe, Europe has one card left to play. It can throw America out of NATO and that has massive repercussions. You see America has 70,000 troops in Europe, those who are send back will likely lose their jobs, then they get a massive downturn in their defense industry. Which will upset Raytheon, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. All that has a massive economic footprint. When the Europeans turn away from American hardware, America’s economy takes a swift dive into an abyss where it cannot afford the gravy trains it supported and that has other impacts as well. I reckon that the media is next, as American media gets shunned in Europe and the Commonwealth their incomes and more important their influence will wane into near nothingness. 

So am I correct?

I honestly don’t know, but that is what I see, the markers are undeniable and they tend to cross nations, they cross interests and they cross political allies. As I see it, America might in the end have one ally left, Russia. So how does that sit with the anti-communist setting of the Republican Party? And next on that list id the waning of the CIA, you see as the Commonwealth stops trusting America, the CIA us also shunned from the meetings it needs to have and as such it is about to require a lot more money to stay afloat and that is the one thing America no longer has (at least until they get the Venezuelan oil) settings upon settings that sets the game that will be played and America is largely out of moves. They are about to falter in intelligence, they are faltering in business, the will soon falter in media and as I see it, the steps the American administration made towards Hollywood is strengthening Canadian, Australian and British film industries and those settings are getting larger and worse for America. So feel free to disagree and that is fine, but I reckon you need to investigate on yourself and see what the media is hiding from a lot of people. And as I see it, America is about to falter and leave the people in America without anything. Because the AI scare fare is about to cost American wealth trillions of dollars (according to some a number between nine and fifteen) who who gets to pay for all that? Microsoft? OpenAI? I reckon that it will come out of retirement funds and if I am wrong, I am wrong. But do come with actual numbers. We can see “US retirement funds are extensively invested in artificial intelligence (AI), primarily through large index funds, mutual funds, and ETFs that hold significant stakes in major tech companies leading the AI revolution, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet.” As well as “Indirect Investment via Large Cap Tech Holdings: Many common retirement savings options, like S&P 500 index funds or target-date funds, have a large, concentrated exposure to the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, etc.) that are heavily driving AI innovation. Nvidia’s significant market value, for example, means it has a large weighting in many diversified portfolios, creating inherent AI exposure.” That is the bubble fear you should have and when America stops, you better have a sock with reserve funds, because that is all you can live on when it collapses.

Have a great day.

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December 16, 2025 · 10:39

President Bully

Here I was, telling myself that the world is screwed up and behest and behold the world shows me I am right. So as a well known person (who I will not name) set the world on fire with his tweet (see below), I suddenly had a massive idea and as I am already working on three scripts I thought I put the idea here, for the entertaining person (likely an American democrat) to make this into a real script. Feel free to hack it in many ways you see fit and know that I would be happy to receive a donation for the idea, but that is largely in your hands. Know that I put this here for all to enjoy.

So as the world is on fire (seeing the massive response to this tweet on both the Republican and Democratic side of the isle) I thought that a script that pleases at least 40% of the American people might be the way to go. So here goes.

BEGIN
The day was nice and sunny and a simple man was walking on the street. He was suddenly halted by a woman pretending to be his friend and as he looked with questions at the women car suddenly halted and bricked him away. [END SCENE]

The man was in a room his bag was taken away from him and the people were talking at him, not to him. He was barely listening because he was confused, he was taken from the street without force and he was placed in a room. There were people who were speaking to each other, there was some disagreement between them and suddenly someone spoke to him. “We were in error” sign this release form and we will put you on your way. He looked suspiciously and looked at the form. It was in a holder and it stated a few things about a release form and a penalty fine imposed on the people who arrested him. The amount was $5000. He looked strangely relieved, it was more than he had seen in several months. So he signed the paper, and he got his 50 bills of 100 dollars. He took his bag and he left the place. [END SCENE]

It was 8 o’clock clock and he was watching the news. It showed something from Microsoft, he wasn’t listening and they had made billions in a deal. He wasn’t up to this and he was about to shut down the TV when he noticed a man standing there. It was a man that was in that room with him and suddenly he had a distinct feeling of unease. And he suddenly looked into his bag. The backup drive had gone. He was beside himself and the next day the news showed a white house setting where Microsoft made a massive announcement that would bring billions into the American economy. And the man became furious beyond believe. [END SCENE]

He ran to the nearest SBS station and gave his recollection of the day he was ‘abducted’, they listened to him, but there was little intent of following up. He recognised that he must have sounded like a deranged person and he got that. When he left the SBS studio, people from Channel 7 were waiting for him asking him “What does it feel to hand over IP worth billions for a few thousand dollars?” He denied doing that, and gave the response what he encountered. And he wasn’t taken seriously. Later that day the news was all jumbled up and the responses were edited for maximum digital dollar effects. He was beyond angry. He then remembered that there were other people involved and he waited around the corner of the American consulate waiting for a chance to get even and after 2-3 hours he got lucky, he recognised one of the men and with chopsticks he ran over to the man approaching his from behind, kicking him in the balls and shouting at him. Who did this? Who ordered the theft of my IP? And the man gave a simple “Fuck you!” Which drove the man insane and he shoved the chopstick into his nostril into his brain. Killing the man on sight. It was less then 10 seconds when the police arrested him for murder. [END SCENE]

We now get a court case, where the man is found guilty of manslaughter, not murder and convicted for 10 years in a maximum prison. After a week he is transferred and before he knows where he is put on a military plane and whisked of to Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune where he become an inmate of the MCIEAST regional brig classified as an intelligence prisoner. There he stayed for 7 years, he was then released as a 70 year old person. [END SCENE]

We then get a setting of vengeance. First we get hits on Sydney harbour, ships sinking and we see the same happen to Jacksonville and the Port of South Louisiana. We see the attacks and we see the fallout, but the story in between the attacks show the ingenuity of the writer who was imprisoned. The ships sing making these ports unproductive for months. Whilst the settings are given of the billions of dollars of damage that these attacks bring, we are given the news how ‘former’ president Trump raked in the revenue of billions from Microsoft (who was making a lot more) and now the snippets are joined together as we see the man making a vengeance tour of America. Then we see the port of San Francisco losing several piers to sinking ships and the fallout that this brings to the city, in addition, we see several ferries sink on the spot in total 8 ships sunk leave a very lasting impression of the harbour which will now operate at a mere 30% making the city lose billions and billions in cleaning fees. Next on the list is Los Angeles, around the Angel’s Gate Lighthouse 3 ships are sunk making most of the harbour unavailable. Now we get to see the new setting, the missing snippets are that the man is seeking revenge and a Chinese splinter group, people who hate America are willing to fund the attacks and the stealth solution to what the man invented years before he was incarcerated thought of, and the fun part was that Microsoft had all this knowledge, but they saw it as the ravings of a person who never amounted to anything and that was exactly the setting the group which was a splinter group of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was hoping for. The man disappears, no-one knows where, but we see a small scene of an old man in the Changbaishan International Resort (Jilin Province), enjoying a cup of tea with a young lady at his side. He looks over the ski slopes. In the mean time the harshest insult a person can get in America is to be called a Trumpist, America is looking towards decades of hash living conditions as the evidence seems to be popping up what happened between Microsoft and the White House. Microsoft is rejected all over Europe and the Commonwealth and the Commonwealth no longer considers itself an ally of America. The democrats who follow are between a rock and a hard place. Republicans are shunned all over America.
THE END

So this is what I have so far and I have had the tweet for less then 4 hours. So in view of the loss of Rob Reiner, who gave us  All in the Family (My introduction to Rob Reiner), the Princess bride, When Harry met Sally, Misery and a Few good men and several others. I think I countered the tweet by @realDonaldTrump, I think I got my creative revenge. I didn’t get to introduce on how Ivanka and Barron Trump had to flee to Russia as most Americans had their fill of the Trumps where they get to be toys of the Russian Mafia. Well the world turns in many unexpected ways. 

How you like my sense of consideration Mister President? 

Have a lovely day and take a moment to remember the works of Rob Reiner. I have many good and happy thoughts of his work, even if a never realised what an impact he had on me as a teenager watching Carroll O’Connor and Jean Stapleton giving us their version of America.

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December 9, 2025 · 17:10

The increased revenue setting

That is what we look for and I found another setting in something called Airport technology. You see, we see ‘King Salman International Airport, Saudi Arabia’  (at https://www.airport-technology.com/projects/king-salman-international-airport-saudi-arabia/) and the facts are clear. An airport that covers about 57km², positioning it among the largest airports by footprint and is said to “KSIA is expected to handle up to 120 million travelers by 2030, and up to 185 million passengers and 3.5 million tonnes of cargo by 2050” But I saw more. You see, on the 26th of September I wrote ‘That one idea’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/09/26/that-one-idea/) where I saw the presentation of an Near Intelligent Parsing (NIP) thought that could revolutionise lost and found settings in airports, on railway stations and a few other places, the instant winners of this idea would be Dubai International, Abu Dhabi international, London Heathrow and several other places and now also King Salman International Airport (KSIA), I would make some alterations to it all. In stead of entering it all, use PDA’s to records the data as it happens and when it is all entered use what they use in Australian hospitals for wristbands, print that data and attack it to whatever is found. If this is properly done, it will be done in mere minutes and within an hour people can look for the items, they could pick it up on the way back, in some cases it could be delivered to their hotel. This would be customer service of a much higher degree. And as I see it, the five airports (namely King Khalid International Airport, King Abdulaziz International Airport, King Salman International Airport,  Dubai International Airport and Zayed International Airport) could become the frontrunner to make an Near Intelligent Parsing (NIP) solution (not calling a solution based on DML/LLM AI) that could be the next solution for airports al over the world and there is some personal gratification to see America talk about how great their AI solutions are, whilst the little guy in Australia found a solution and hands it over to either Saudi Arabia or the UAE. A solution that was out there in the open and players like Microsoft (Google and Amazon too) merely left it laying on the floor and the elements were clearly there, so I hand it over to these two hungry places with the need to see what it can offer for them and in this it isn’t mine. It was presented by Roger Garcia (from Interworks) and the printing setting is already out there. Merely the joining of two solutions and they are done. So as I see it, another folly for Microsoft (honestly Google and Amazon too). This setting could have been seen by a larger number of players and they all seemingly fell asleep on the job. But if I know what Saudi’s and Emirati’s do when they see something that will work for them. They get really active. And so they should.

And consider that these airports will cater to close to half a billion travelers annually, and as such they will need a much better solution than whatever they at present have and there is the setting for Interworks. And when these solutions set the station towards delivering what was lost, the quality scores will go skywards and that is the second setting where the west is bottoming out. One presentation set the option from grind to red carpet walking. A setting overlooked by those captains of industry.

Good work guys!

So whilst I start preparing for the next IP thought I am having there is still some space to counter the US and its flaming EU critique. Let us remind America that the EU was the collection of ideas from America retail who were tired of dealing with all those currencies and in the late 80’s AMERICANS decided to sell the Euro to Europeans, all because they couldn’t sort out their currency software (or currency logistics) and now that it starts working against them they cry like little girls. Go cry me a river. In the meantime I will put ideas worth multiple millions online and let it fly for the revenue hungry salespeople (and consultants). In this case it wasn’t my idea, I merely adjusted an idea from Interworks and slapped some IP (owned by others) to make a more robust solution. I merely hope to positively charge my karma for when it matters.

Have a great day, except Vancouver, they are still somewhere yesterday.

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December 6, 2025 · 20:40

TBD CEO OpenAI 

That is the thought I had, yesterday, 5 hours after I wrote my piece, I still saw the news appear all over the media, some on it was getting a ridiculous amount of attention, so I decided to take another look at some of this. First there was the Business insider (at https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-code-red-chatgpt-advertising-google-search-gemini-2025-12) giving us ‘OpenAI’s Code Red: Protect the loop, delay the loot’ where we see “Focus on improving ChatGPT, and pause lower-priority initiatives. The most striking pause is advertising. Why delay such a lucrative opportunity at a moment when OpenAI’s finances face intense scrutiny? Because in tech, nothing matters more than users.” This was followed by “Every query and click fed a feedback loop: user behavior informed ranking systems, which improved results, which attracted more users. Over time, that loop became an impenetrable moat. Competing with it has proven nearly impossible.

ChatGPT occupies a similar position for AI assistants. Nearly a billion people now interact with it weekly, giving OpenAI an unmatched new window into human intent, curiosity, and decision-making. Each prompt and reply can be fed back into model training, evaluations, and reinforcement learning to strengthen what is arguably the world’s most powerful AI feedback loop.” All this makes sense, it comes with the nearly mandatory “Google’s Gemini 3 rollout has lured new users. If ChatGPT’s quality slips or feels cluttered, defecting to Google becomes easier. Introducing ads now risks exactly that. Even mildly irritated users could view ads as one annoyance too many.” Whilst in the background we are ‘sensitive’ to “OpenAI has already committed to spending hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure to serve ChatGPT at a global scale. At some point, those bills will force the company to monetize more aggressively.

If OpenAI manages to build even half of Google’s Search ads business in an AI-native form, it could generate roughly $50 billion in annual profit. That’s one way to fund its colossal ambitions.” This gives OpenAI a two sided blade in the back. It was a good ploy, but that ploy is deemed to be counter productive and I get that, but dropping the ads might sting with the investors as It was the dimes that they were seeing coming their way and ChatGPT needs to make a smooth entry all the way to the next update, which will be near impossible to avoid in several ways. Google has the inside track now and whilst there are a few settings that are ‘malleable’ for the users, the smooth look is essential for ChatGPT to continue. And that is before other start looking at the low quality data it verifies against. Google has, as I see it, exactly the same problem, but as I see it, ChatGPT gets it now in advance. 

Newcomer (at https://www.newcomer.co/p/openais-code-red-shows-the-power) gives us “In truth, as Newcomer’s Tom Dotan wrote back in April, Google, with all of its formidable assets, was never very far behind. Nor is it currently very far ahead. Anthropic too has always been essentially neck-and-neck with OpenAI on the core technology. The capabilities of the big foundation models, and even some lighter ones like DeepSeek, are broadly similar. Marc Benioff, himself a skilled practitioner in the arts of attention, even claimed this week that the big models will be interchangeable commodities, like disk drives. Yet the perception of who’s on top matters quite a lot at a moment when consumers, enterprise technology buyers, and investors are all deciding where to place some highly consequential long-term bets. That brings us back to Altman’s “Code Red.”” Is a truth in itself, but the next part “while the alarm came in a company-wide memo that wasn’t officially announced publicly, we can stipulate that the “leak” of the memo, if not necessarily orchestrated, was almost certainly part of the plan. A media maestro like Altman surely knew that a memo going out to thousands of employees with charged language like “Code Red” was all but guaranteed to make its way to the press. Publicizing a panicked internal reaction to a competitor’s new product might seem like a counter-intuitive way to maintain your reputation as the industry leader.” As I see it, someone in Microsoft marketing earned his dollars in marketing that day, but this is a personal feeling, I have no data to back it up. It is now up to Sam Altman to deliver his ‘new’ version in the coming week and it better the a great new release, or as I see it, there will be heads rolling all over the floor and Sam Altman knows that the pressure is up. I don’t think he is scared as some media says, but he is definitely worried, because this setting will set the record of $13 billion straight, into or away from Microsoft and Sam Altman knows this, as such he is probably a little worried and in a software release any of a hundred things can go wrong and they all need to go right at present. 

Then we get “Altman and OpenAI are so good at making news that it’s sometimes hard to tell what’s real.” So, isn’t that the setting all the time? I have always seen Sam Altman as a bad second hands car salesman, That is my take, but I have had a healthy disgust for salespeople for over 30 years. I am a service person, Technical support, customer support. That was always my field. I am not against sales, merely against cleaning up their messes. At times this comes with the territory, shit happens, but those salespeople overselling something just so that they can fill their pipeline and make their numbers are not acceptable to me. To illustrate this, A little setting (devoid of names and brands) “A salesperson came to me with what he needed. We could not do that and I told him, so off he goes calling every technical support person on the planet until he found one that agreed with him and then he sold the solution to the customer and hung that persona name on this. I had to clean up the mess and set up a credit invoice, but after I went through the whole 9 yards making it over 30 days ensuring him that he kept his commission” that is the type I am disgusted with because the brands as a whole suffers, all for the need of greed. It is short sighted thinking. I goes nowhere, but his monthly revenue was guaranteed. And I feel that Sam Altman is not completely like that, but it is the ‘offset’ of salespeople that I carry within me. For me protecting the product and the customer are first and foremost on my mind. 

Then we get Futurism (at https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/openai-is-suddenly-in-major-trouble) where we see ‘OpenAI Is Suddenly in Major Trouble’ OK, is this true? We are given “The financial stakes are almost comical in their magnitude: The company is lighting billions of dollars on fire, with no end in sight; it’s committed to spending well over $1 trillion over the next several years while simultaneously losing a staggering sum each quarter. And revenues are lagging far behind, with the vast majority of ChatGPT users balking at the idea of paying for a subscription.” I don’t agree with this setting. You either pay, or you see advertisement that is the setting. There are no free rides and the sooner you realise this, the easier this gets. Then we are given “Meanwhile, Google has made major strides, quickly catching up with OpenAI’s claimed 800 million or so weekly active ChatGPT users as of September. Worse yet, Google is far better positioned to turn generative AI into a viable business — all while minting a comfortable $30 billion in profit each quarter, as the Washington Post points out.” I agree with the setting the Washington Post sets out with and Google does have an advantage, but that is still relying on the fact that Sam Altman does not get his new version seen as stellar in the coming week. He still has a much larger issue, but that is for later. All this comes at the price of being in the frontrunner team. Easy does it, there is no other way and the stakes are set rather high. So then we are given “In a Thursday note, Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid estimated staggering losses for OpenAI amounting to $140 billion between 2024 and 2029.” This is probably true, but where are the numbers. $140 billion over 5 years is one, but what revenue is set against it? Because if this is still set against a revenue number that OpenAI keeps making they are going decently sweet, the numbers were never in debate, the return on investment was and these stakes are high and there is no debating that, these numbers are either given or they are not. 

Then we are given something that makes sense ““OpenAI may continue to attract significant funding and could ultimately develop products that generate substantial profits and revolutionize the world,” he wrote, as quoted by WaPo. “But at present, no start-up in history has operated with expected losses on anything approaching this scale.” “We are firmly in uncharted territory,” Reid added.” I agree, in several ways, but the revenue is not given as such the real deal is absent. Consider YouTube, did anyone see the upside of a $1.65 billion acquisition 20 years ago? It now generates $36.1 billion in annual revenue (2024), Microsoft and OpenAI are banking on that same setting and Microsoft needs it to get a quality replacement for Clippy and they are banking on ChatGPT, this will only happen if they win over Google and I have my doubts on this. There is no real evidence because the new version isn’t ready yet, but it really needs one hitch to make it all burn down and Altman knows this. The numbers or better, the statistics are not on his side. And as I haven’t see a decent software price fight for a while, so I am keeping my thumbs up for Altman (I am however a through and through Google guy). This is a worthy fight watching and I am wondering how this might evolves over the next week.

The stakes are high, the challenge is high, lets see if Sam Altman rises to the occasion. It’s almost Sunday for me so have a great day you all, I reckon that Ryan Reynolds is about 6 hours from breakfast in Vancouver now.

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