Tag Archives: economy

January 12, 2025 · 05:58

Who’s funny now?

It was just after midnight when an article hit the retinals of my eyes. It happens and most of the time it is just as it is. Not this time, this time was different. You see, a few days ago on January 9th 2025 in my view (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/09/is-it-semantics/) with the title ‘Is it semantics?’ I wrote “I will let you decide, yet consider that America opened to door to grow China in near exponential size, because they could end up with options in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.” As some people laughed at my ‘sense of humor’ they ridiculed the setting from ever happening. Now the BBC gave me a mere 4 hours ago ‘Reeves defends China visit and hails £600m boost to UK’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqx9jggw9ndo), as I see it the die is cast and now you (Americans) get to ridicule the setting. Perhaps it was a simple joke to keep the mind of tariff changes, but that is not how it is playing out, is it? The article gives us “Chancellor Rachel Reeves has defended her decision to travel to China to improve economic ties at a time when soaring government borrowing costs threaten to squeeze UK public finances.” The added “The Treasury said Reeves’ visit to China delivered on a “commitment to explore deeper economic co-operation” between Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and President Xi, made last year. BBC economics editor Faisal Islam said other European nations such as Spain have encouraged China not just to set up factories but to transfer its advanced battery technology, for example, into Europe.” Brings another setting to the table. Is that why Elon Musk wanted Starmer out? The timeline makes sense. America would have known about this in advance and the noise we heard was around the time this was going down on plan papers. So Elon Musk was pushing his ‘ideas’ through the populistic channels available to him? I knew nothing of the sort, but I predicted the setting as an available one. And now we get “other European nations such as Spain have encouraged China not just to set up factories but to transfer its advanced battery technology, for example, into Europe.” This implies that Spain is also on the China horse of economic opportunity. This implies that China is making progress towards the UK (and optionally also into Australia, Canada and New Zealand) as well as direct opening moves by Spain (and others) into Europe. America is not really laughing now, are they? In opposition we see “Tory MP and former security minister Tom Tugendhat told BBC Radio 4’s Today program that the timing of Reeves’ visit to China was questionable. “She’s going at a time when her Budget has sacked the economy, we’ve got debt rates going up, and she looks like she’s going with a begging bowl, not with a trading deal,” he said. “That’s a real problem because actually it makes the UK look more vulnerable, and others around the world will see it too.”” 

Well, the UK doesn’t look more vulnerable. It is more vulnerable and it started 8-10 years ago when Mario Draghi decided to push his idea for spending in excess of €2 trillion. Yup, the invoice is due at some point and the UK is actively seeking solutions now, preferable before European nations do. As such I saw that dinner bell chime over 5 years ago. And as such Tom Tugendhat going for the adjusted Oliver Twist quote which was “Can I have some more please?” Doesn’t really hold water or slice the cabbage. It is reality in a nasty setting. It is the consequence of Wall Street and friends pushing hardship forward and now it is due harder choices will be made, but at this time these Wall Street friends are nowhere to be found and it comes down to Wall Street and its administration to figure it out and the Trump administration can no longer cry wolf (make China the nasty one). These administrations are in a deeper setting and are willing to give China a go, which will be good news for Tencent and Huawei in the first instance and first degree. Tencent will personally aid my need for coins and selling my idea, but that is not the issue now.

And whilst the article ends with “Liberal Democrat deputy leader and Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper urged the chancellor to return to the UK “to urgently address the ongoing crisis in the markets and announce a serious plan for growth”.” I wonder if the BBC relied on “Cooper urged the chancellor to return to the UK” instead of “Cooper urged the chancellor to return to the UK before the China vote is in”, there is of course the setting that this is not the case. I do not know Daisy Cooper, merely to a minimal degree. Yet at present, she has more in her stride than Australian labor PM Anthony Albanese. Yet for me the real ‘victory’ was that I optionally saw the backlash from President elect Donal Trump correctly, at least in part. And that days before the BBC gave me the rundown. So will the commonwealth unite with China? It is too early to say, but the start is here and now America starts its new administration with serious other problems. You see the group five eyes (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and America) is nice but as it seemingly goes this setting could be 4 members short in the near future and that creates a new setting. The CIA will lose eyes in several places and they will not have the budget to rectify that any way soon (they lack other resources too). Still happy about the 51st state ‘joke’? We have asian food centers all over the commonwealth and these people feel happily fed and don’t see China as a threat. I am not saying they aren’t a threat, as I see it, merely America and its devoted fans do. The problem is that the economic hardships are real and the people are willing to give China a chance. It isn’t right or wrong. It merely is and it is a direct consequence of games that Wall Street enabled, as they disregarded a long term policy. It is the direct consequence of what I call short term Excel policies (not blaming Microsoft in this case).

We can postulate all we want, but it depends on what Chancellor Rachel Reeves brings back to Number 10 and parliament. As I personally see it, President Xi (with aid from He Lifeng) gets the option to make a clean sweep into the hardship that America is ignoring for itself and with the settings as I observed it on defense spending in several places China can put pressure on America to a much larger degree. Life can throw us the strangest curveballs.

So enjoy the day and remember that in China, they will say “我可以再多吃一點嗎？”

Have a lovely day, only 120 minutes until breakfast for me.

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December 17, 2024 · 20:27

The meme of nothing

Something made me pause this morning. The actor Tim Russ (Tuvok, Star Trek Voyager) had sent a meme over Twitter. Now in itself this is nothing new, actors and actresses do this to entertain the fans and for the most show their commitment to issues. The meme below was send.

I have seen similar memes for some time and the setting is fine, it is just a useless meme. Like all those people shouting tax the rich. You see America is a nation of laws and there are all kinds of laws. This impacts tax laws and an overhaul has been overdue for over a quarter of a century. I made mention of this as early as June 8th 2014 (over aI made several more mentions, even earlier at that. In this case I wrote “The US gets through taxation a mere 14% of where the debt is at. How is any of that realistic? So, the total collected taxation, before any other cost is taken into account (like paying government staff and utilities), it only amounts to 14%, after all that is done 0.1% is left if the US government gets a fitting budget (something that has not been achieved since president Clinton was in office).”, the debt now is close to 50% larger. So wonder if you will, what is the use of taxing the rich if the law prevents discrimination? Moreover we might want to blame Billy bad boy Gates (Microsoft), Sergei sneaky Brin (Google), Larry Scoundrel Ellison (Oracle), Jeff paperback Bezos (Amazon), Tim the shifter Cook (Apple) or even Andy off-the-books Jessy (Also Amazon). We can call them names, we can blame them. The truth is that they did nothing wrong. They adhered to tax laws, a black letter interpretation if you want, but the problem is not them, it is the people who wrote the laws, the stakeholders that influenced the lawmakers and the politicians who weaselled out for all kinds of selfish reasons. There is no Democratic or Republican blame, they are all to blame from Bill Clinton onwards. The last president in the existence of America who had a surplus in the treasury. It has been that long and and I wrote about it over a decade before, I am pretty sure I raised it a few times before that, but the story should be clear. A setting that has been known for over a decade and the media loves the tax the rich flames. They love cashing in on flames per digital dollar. The rest not so much. So wonder something simple. Am I more intelligent than 334,925,763 Americans? I don’t think so. I am definitely not more intelligent than the five mentioned above and a few dozen more. They knew what was going to happen and as such they aren’t innocent, but they were not guilty either. Guilt should be sought in Washington DC, amongst the lawmakers. They catered to the mess America is in now and these meme’s are entertaining but incorrect. One might surmise that some of the wealth of Jeff Bezos comes from the fact that he can safe on shampoo. A bottle of that stuff costs  £390 in Harrods, so that is money saved in the bank. The rest has hair (as far as I know). 

You think I am making a joke, but there is a hidden flaw in that. You see, shampoo is something we all get to buy, I have no doubt that they have all kinds of expenses that a doctor misses out on. Tax deductions are the game for some and that is pretty much all they can be gotten on. The rest is corporate and that impacts Amazon, Apple, Google, and all other corporations and that is set in law and the lawmakers gave these corporations a huge discount all over the place. So when you go in ‘tax the rich’ mode, consider how useless that mode is. 

As someone told me, when you get access to web camera on Tiananmen Square,

tilt the camera from centre 24.5 degrees to the left and 15 degrees up, you might (might is the operative word) see President Xi stating ‘對富人徵稅’ howling with laughter (I have no idea what he says, I do not know Chinese. But I reckon they are grateful for the easy victory handed to them by American lawmakers no less.

The simplicity is that America gave the world away by giving tax breaks to corporations. And there isn’t much time left, there might not be any time left. As I personally see it, in the age of President Trump the corporations will clean house, give the bonuses to the board of directors and they will all split to a zero tax place with no extradition. You might call me out on that, but that is how I see the world change and they will leave whatever is left behind to clean up the mess. It will go gradually, but I reckon that these five people will have at least one apartment in Monte Carlo, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Nassau or Lichtenstein and they will get some diplomatic status so that they cannot be extradited to America. 

You want to doubt this, fine. But the reality for over a decade will have been clear. The taxation does not show or warrant the amount of debt America has and Economists all over the world either never said anything or the media kept it quiet. Your choice in what happened. I actually cannot tell. I can only see the numbers, not the reality behind that. I am not an economist, but I reported this for over a decade, so I feel fine. I leave it up to you to dig into the matter how others (with economic degrees) didn’t see this. And when the next bubble comes (the thing they refer to AI) and the so called trillions of revenue, that bubble is as I see it an excuse for some on whatever mattering reason to remain in denial that it was a simple error (in stead of that it never was possible) and they will walk away with whatever they can afford. 

Bubbles are only useful as long they are still presented when that falls down (I reckon within 1-2 years) the setting changes from what they think is bad to actually severely disastrous. And it was never going to be solved via memes.

As I see it the meme doesn’t lie, but the impact goes in the wrong direction and has been going in the wrong direction for over a decade. There was an urgency for my selling my IP and I would rather be in a pace with some actual money then be thrown in the midst of desperate people seeking someone to blame, but that’s just me. 

Have a great day.

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December 16, 2024 · 18:57

The statistics are against me

Yup, that happens and I don’t believe it is a worrying issue. You see, it started a little over a year ago and I created my first (sort of) script. It is called ‘How to assassinate a politician’ which I later ‘reset’ to ‘Essay’. MY first script was meant specifically for an islamic audience which could have graced the walls of the UAE or the Saudi media bosses. I saw the story and it was my response to an Islamophobe population. And how to better serve it than to assassinate the biggest European islamophobic of all Geert Wilders (now PM of the Netherlands). I thought it was an excellent idea (a pure personal thought). Yet now I am confronted with ‘How the creative economy drives growth in the Middle East’ (at https://economymiddleeast.com/news/how-creative-economy-drives-growth-middle-east/). Here I see “In the UAE, a global creative hub, Dubai Media City is home to a talent pool of over 40,500 creative professionals”, so what was I thinking? Well, the short of this is that I write to feed the creative beast in me. I was unaware of just how large the Media City population was, and if you go by that setting you will never get anything done.

And whilst you are mulling over “The UN Trade and Development Creative Economy Outlook 2024 highlights the crucial role of creative industries in global trade and economic growth. According to the UNCTAD survey, the creative economy contributes between 0.5 percent and 7.3 percent of GDP and employs 0.5 percent to 12.5 percent of the workforce in various countries. “The creative economy has the right forces pushing its sails. This is not just art. It is an economic powerhouse that we must harness together, leaving no one behind,” stated Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of UNCTAD.”” You see, it is nice to hide behind numbers at one setting, but the source of the numbers matter a well. I find a little worrying setting behind the statement “The creative economy has the right forces pushing its sails. This is not just art. It is an economic powerhouse that we must harness together, leaving no one behind” my issue is in one direction “leaving no one behind”, which is nice, but that is a political statement and Grynspan was in the past Grynspan was a professor and researcher at the Economic Science Research Institute at the University of Costa Rica. This is not some anti statement. I always wonder and become ‘skeptical’ when a politician makes a “leaving no one behind” in their setting. Because that tends to rally towards “We were however forced to make choices” and that always goes at the expense of Art, especially when dollar numbers are involved. That and the setting of “employs 0.5 percent to 12.5 percent of the workforce in various countries”, which is quite the distribution. So where is it 12.5%? Hollywood with its 153,859 villagers? Some other consideration would be ‘the UNCTAD survey’, which I am not attacking now, as I have never read it. But the stage of a survey calls with me the setting of data. What data? What was filtered? How was it collected? What nations participated? Indonesia has around 277.5 million people, how many does its media (online and other) have? Simple questions really. 

When we dig into the matter, we see “Middle Eastern countries recognise the potential of the creative economy. In the region, the intersection of the digital and creative industries, in particular — encompassing the use of artificial intelligence (AI), Web3, and virtual reality — is driving innovation and economic diversification.” I still shiver at the notion that AI does not yet exist, no matter how many players boom the bubble of the AI vibe, it does not yet exist and we need to take notice of this. It might be fuelling the desire for it to be here, but it isn’t and when the world starts wondering the simple equation of “LLM’s vs AI” and true data parsing, its verification process and programmers with its algorithms the statement “According to a white paper by Dubai Design District and Dubai Media City, the global digital creative economy could grow by 11 percent annually, reaching a staggering AED27 trillion by 2030.” I fear for the fallout it precedes. And like the other papers the question of population, collection and reading the data will get a much higher priority. I winder how certain power players will address and respond to “a staggering AED27 trillion by 2030”, you see, joy of a revenue is nice, but the fear of it falling short in 5 years will be on the forefront of nearly every mind who depended on this fuelling stage. 

There is a side I fully agree with. It is seen in “In November, Dubai Media City underscored the essential role of multicultural creativity at this year’s Global Media Congress held in ADNEC Center Abu Dhabi.” I believe that true creativity can only be seen in a multicultural setting as such the UAE has a jump on all other nations as I personally see it and even as I shiver at the 40,500 setting (I am not debating or attacking it) I understand that my script had very little chance to begin with. I am still proud I wrote it and there are three more coming (not with Islamic values in mind), but that is the state of the world. Creativity is where our thoughts take us. And we respond as we would or as we can. The first one was islamic in nature, but that doesn’t mean all will be and multicultural is the first step of being truly creative. What matters to me are a few things and the stage of the numbers is one, articles rarely spell that out and as such it becomes my setting that I wish I knew more of UNCTAD and their numbers, because it is at the heart of the matter here. And here is the spiller (or killer). You see, the UN Trade and Development has a UNCTADstat Data centre. I took a look (at https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/) where I found “International trade in creative services: estimates for individual economies” an experimental part that has data from 2010 to 2018 and shows us Saudi Arabia, but not the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as such I wonder where the numbers are coming from. The article does not give us that part. I saw the Creative Economy Outlook 2024. The word ‘Statistics’ is given to us 23 times, and always with references like {Key Statistics and Trends in Trade Policy 2022. UNCTAD/DITC/TAB/2023/2. Geneva.} Yet the report gives us no real numbers (like raw data) or the reference to raw data has exactly 0 hits. As such I tend to have a more skeptical view on such a presentation. As such when ‘confirming’ the survey, I see another ‘hitch’ the fact that the phrase ‘in countries where data is available’ is missing from the article. It happens, but as I see it, it is kinda sloppy. With the rather large setting shown (in the UN pdf) that we see “inputs received through the 2024 UNCTAD Survey on the Creative Economy from the following countries: Albania, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Benin, Cambodia, China, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Libya, Malaysia, Mauritius, Montenegro, Mozambique, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Seychelles, Slovenia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Uzbekistan and Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.” And here we get the other shoe dropped. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are not mentioned at all. This is not on these countries, but as I see it The editorial of the Middle East economy has a little explaining to do (as I personally see it), it might be merely semantics, but that is at times how I roll.

And there is more on the graphics, one pie chart merely shows Saudi Arabia and the UAE as part of the EMEA region, as such I wonder which part of the 21% is Europe, because that sets a much larger premise of advertisement per region and population. There is no real way that Saudi Arabia and the UAE can compete in advertising against a population of 742 million europeans. As such I start to develop questions (as I would).

Well that was it for now, I’ll add the United Nations PDF at the bottom, it took me less than 10 minutes to scope out the questions you see here and if I took a little more time I will find a lot more. But that is the setting of a political brief (as I see it), I also didn’t see (I might have missed that) on the definition of the media and what sources are set to what medium. You see, there is a chart on Global video games revenues, and predictively set (based on data) this is always an upward spiral because there are no sources (or data) available for the Playstation 6, the Nintendo Switch 2, or the Tencent handheld. They are the tomorrow systems and there is no data on any of that a present. But the larger audiences are already looking into these parts. So what gives on the data?

A mere simple question that has no easy answer, I get that, because presumption is always on what is known, but take the simple setting in 2012 the PS4 was released. It got more than 50 million consoles out and obliterated the Microsoft product. In 2016 Microsoft merely gave us all Xbox live numbers. So when we see that, what numbers does UNCTAD have to set the Total video games revenue from 225 to 312 billion and Video games advertising from 75 to 137 billion between 2023 and 2027? A lot higher than Traditional games which went from 55 to 62 billion? The numbers do not reflect each other. As you might guess that sets gaming in a dead drop against advertisement, a bad business practice as I personally see it. And I could go on but when you see it was a forecast based on PwC’s Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2023-2027 (so based on what numbers?) This is merely what I found in under an hour. As such question all numbers that have no accompanying response setting (aka N). 

Also when we get the Countries with the most significant art markets by value of sales in 2023 and we see USA, France, UK, China and other with France at 7% and other at 15%, where do the UAE and Saudi Arabia end up? Consider that a place with 40,500 members do not surpass France and are part of the 15% What is the setting for them? I wonder if the Middle East Economy had those questions in mind when they released that story. As I see it a simple question really.

1416030-ENDownload

Have a great Monday.

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December 14, 2024 · 14:10

Calling a bluff

That happens, some people bluff and others tend to call the bluff. That is the setting that president elect Trump called on himself. We all heard how the upcoming Trump administration called the setting that they opened. They threatened the Canadian Trudeau administration on tariffs when “Trump threatened in a social media post to apply devastating levies of 25% on all goods and services from both Mexico and Canada, vowing to keep them in place until “such time as drugs, in particular fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country!”” As I see it, a larger setting that the US called upon itself. The war on drugs has been going on since June 17, 1971, during which President Richard Nixon declared drug abuse “public enemy number one”. I get that, drugs are the filth of any civilisation. Perhaps America could have changed tactics decades ago, when it was set to ‘the black population’, being white an wealthy enabled cocaine habits, all whilst crack users got the bulk of the heavy punishment. I cannot voice any opinion because it is too far from my bed. Yet the media used that setting to give us “New Jack City” and “Boys N the Hood” with an entertaining “Cocaine bear” for good measure. I reckon that “Traffic” is one of the best views on the subject (there are many I never saw).

So after half a century of failure the President elect Trump now blame the neighbouring countries. Well two can play at that. In the first I suggest any American arrested on drug charges (outside of USA) get the death penalty. No options, no trials, just point and click the gun. In the second we consider the stage that Ontario’s premier, Doug Ford is suggesting (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/12/canada-ontario-premier-trump-tariffs). With ‘Ontario leader threatens to halt energy exports to US if Trump imposes tariffs’. This is actually not a bad move (better than my idea). At present we have the idea that Canada’s revenue from electricity exports to the United States hit a record high of C$ 5.8bn. Quebec is the largest exporter, with Ontario following second at 13.9m megawatt-hours of power sent south. Of course the setback is that Ontario loses that near essential revenue. But consider that America loses 13.9m megawatt-hours of power which adds to the hardship America has at present and the next 2 quarters that hardship could be seen as close to debilitating. 

So should the Trump administration push the tariff bluff, the payback that follows is nothing short of a banger of a payback. I see all these bad press moments of Doug Ford, I cannot answer whether they are valid, but I reckon this one is on point and only 6 hours ago we were also given ‘Ontario premier suggests stopping US liquor imports over Trump tariff threat’ (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/13/ontario-trump-tariff-liquor) not a big thing for the non alcoholics and lets face it, Ryan Reynolds gives us Gin (perhaps soon Canadian Gin too), Dan Ackroyd (part Canadian) gives us Crystal Head Vodka and Canada also has its Whiskey types. As such, it will hurt America a lot more than it will Canada. 

There are other drinks that come from outside of the USA. There is Jenever (Dutch Gin, Netherlands), Gin (UK), Aquavit and Absolute Vodka (Sweden) not to mention the dozen of wines from the French speaking regions (like France). Oh, and Raki and Ouzo are Greek. As such plenty of non-American options. As I personally see it, the response to the Trump bluff will be countered in a few ways and it is my belief that the Trump Administration will be forced to do a 180 degree on the spot, that is if they would like to keep their other ventures running somewhat smooth. 

I personally think that Doug Ford called an upcoming bluff in several ways and all are promising answers to the situation that Canada is in no way to blame for. So what do they want? A 8,891 km wall? Who pays for that? As I see it, the war was essential for a long time, but as the ‘law’ unfairly differentiate the rich and the pour on drugs, this was never going in any direction fast. 

It seemed like such an easy solution but that was never go down well, because the complexities that American law allowed for made it way too complex (as I personally see it).

Have a great weekend, Toronto joins un on this Saturday in 2 hours.

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December 5, 2024 · 17:07

The price of debt.

That is what I am looking at, the price of debt. You see, they are all hailing that the US economy is strong. One voice (Goldman Sachs), the one that lost it all in 2007 told the world that America would be strong at 2.5% (somewhere I read it). To all it sounds nice and I like nice, but I also query a system that is to my (non-economic view) is rigged. As we see images all over the place on how good things are supposed to be, consider:

We see the setting as tax collected. For 2023 is was “The US government collected nearly $4.7 trillion in gross taxes during the 2023 fiscal year, which is a 15.5% decrease from 2022. The IRS collected taxes from a variety of sources”, now for some it is a little more then milk money. And that sounds nice, but the other side has “As of October 2024, the United States government’s monthly interest rate on its debt is 3.3%. The average interest rate for 2024 is 3.32%, and the total debt is $35.46 trillion.” Consider the simple setting of 3.32% of $35.46 trillion. This gives us $1,170,180,000,000 dollar annually. Which would be ‘liveable’ were it not for the simple fact that this is ONLY interest. The debt remains. And now we have a problem. You see the interest is is a simple 24.89% of the entire taxable revenue and it was 15.5% less from 2022. Do you now see the problem? 25% of all taxable revenue goes to the banks that carry the debt. The federal government spent $6.75 trillion in FY 2022. This means that they spend over 30% to much, more than they had and if there was no debt we could argue, but at this setting we are faced with the simple fact that $6.75 trillion was spent over an available amount of $3.5 trillion, which is getting worse and worse. As such we could surmise that the debt will increase with a little over 3 trillion over spending over last year alone. As I see it America is done for. And the setting worsens with the optional crushing of Google in 2025 (by breaking up that firm) which give Huawei their first global win. Then the defence industry is losing more and more revenue to China and this sets a larger premise. In that setting we see on one hand “The A&D industry generated $425 billion in economic value, representing 1.6 percent of the 2023 nominal GDP in the U.S.”, yet in this we already seeing revenue shifting to China in this year alone and more revenue goes to Europe. For Saudi Arabia alone this sets the bar at “In 2024, the Saudi Arabian defense budget is worth $71.7 billion and will grow at a CAGR of more than 8% during 2025-2029.” Yet other sources give us that “Saudi Arabia estimates military spending will be 15 percent lower than budgeted this year” as such we could surmise that this implies that Saudi Arabia by itself would spend $10 billion less. Not a biggie you say, but the other side is that China now has a little over 10% on that slice of delicious gunpowder baked pie. Making the loss for America more. As such we see an annual loss of $16 billion in one year alone from one customer. As such, what would be the books on India, Japan, Taiwan, Pakistan and Indonesia? If we see these picture, we see a dangerous escalation towards some fictive nil revenue for America. Fictive because that will never happen, but as the largest players seek economic stability they will spend less and take other jobs ‘in-house’ as the expression goes and America has been too reluctant to appease to that state of mind. And now China will step in to offer just that. As I see it, the question on the dollar setting was wrong. We are given “As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD” against the tariffs threat by president elect Trump. The actual question would become “How long could the US Dollar keep standing?” You see, as the debt becomes a millstone around the neck of the US administration, we need to consider that some nations will seek shelter from the fallout that this setting. In 2017, on March 17th I wrote ‘The finality of French freedom’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/), I set the comparison of the Euro like a barge kept in balance by 4 strong economies. UK, France, Germany and a combined economic anchor. The UK was lost and there was a setting when the French anchor would be lost too. The Euro could not survive a setting with two anchors. A simple equation. Now with the Dollar under attack the Euro could face near certain scuttling. As such the Dollar has an influence there. China seemingly doesn’t care, but the other players who make up a combined anchor might switch sides when they merely look at their own currency. And the debt? They will not care. And as such the dollar faces a lot more than the bully tactics of choice. They will need to up the game by a lot, because when one goes, so will the other and that puts the livelihood and liveability of 784 million people at the markers. 100,000 of them will do fine, but that represents a simple 0.01275348% of people who are likely to make it (outside of the EU and USA), so when were that good statistics? 

The price of debt was always there, but the media has been eager and willing to hide those facts through BS and spin and soon when the people catch on (the other 99.987% of people), the live of playing the media courtesan will be one of the most dangerous of them all. People remember. And it was a simple equation for the media. “You can fool all the people some of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time but you can never fool all of the people all of the time” A simple setting I knew to be true as early as the early 80’s. So how long did they have at most? Some are already falling in the bad light and when the people realise that they weren’t eating potatoes, but turnips. They will become massively enraged. 

A simple setting I have known to become reality at some point. So when are we given the goods? When the interest of the debt of America is shown as a setting against the budget and at this time it is around 25%, Americans need to realise that budgets need to diminish by at least 30%, so at what point do the people realise that the simplicity of the matter is that their money is about to be gone?

Have a lovely day.

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December 4, 2024 · 20:11

The premise was already set

There were some ‘noises’ on what I wrote yesterday and the ‘ludicrous’ setting of Huawei. Well, lets have a look then. The Corner (at https://thecorner.eu/news-spain/the-government-authorizes-saudi-stc-to-purchase-9-9-of-telefonica/117825/) gave us a few days ago ‘Government Authorises Saudi STC To Purchase 9.9% Of Telefonica’ It does not sound like much, but in that setting together with Egypt (as I reported in 2023) the Saudi Telecom Company was already aligning with Egypt and now as it is settling in Spain, Saudi Arabia has now a direct line of communications with the larger part of Europe. They already had Portugal and optionally also have parts of the United Group (details are not known to me).

Then when we see merely a day ago we get (at https://www.rcrwireless.com/20241202/featured/stc-huawei-5g-saudi-arabia) ‘stc, Huawei to enhance 5G connectivity in Saudi Arabia’ and now we get “Stc noted that this solution boosts operational speed by 200% compared to earlier models. Saudi telco stc and Huawei have announced the commercial rollout of SuperLink, a digital solution designed to enhance 5G connectivity across remote areas in Saudi Arabia.” So whilst we get the softer message from Nokia on 5G and we should forget 5G, because their 6G will be da bomb (slight personal tweaking). Yes, always look at the horizon whilst Huawei is upgrading 5G to something that resembles 5G+. Another fine mess the makers of yesterday’s technology bring us. There is however no timeline for 6G and whilst we hear all the wild stories, I have to argue that the organisations that remained in the dark for the longest of time, now has da bomb? I call that a dead mans bluff. Like what they had done before and nothing came from it. Now that China and Saudi Arabia are setting the new marker we see the setting I warned about in ‘The question remains’ on the 21st of December 2022, two years ago I warned of this setting and Now suddenly we get the Nokia news? (OK it has been out for some time), but we haven’t seen anything out in the open with tests and so forth. In that same time Huawei set the proof all over the place and with HarmonyOS they can go to town, especially if Google is forced to break itself up. And as others are forcing Huawei out, we merely see other telecom companies taking the Huawei lead and offering it to customers. We can see all the ‘bigger’ telecom brands heeding the words from the US and so far it lacked any evidence. New the stage will be set that Saudi Arabia could offer a cheaper solution to people in Europe, the Middle East and Asia a solution with Huawei. Now, we get the setting that the larger Telecom companies will have to compete for the same customers. And in that setting 33 million in Saudi Arabia, a slice of 115 million in Egypt and slices from Portugal and Spain giving them slices of 60 million people. And that is before we consider the fallout all over Europe. You see, in the end these other players need people to fuel part of their profits. The anti-China rhetoric from Trump with the added anti-Huawei rhetoric will fall flat. In the near future they have the numbers and now others are in trouble. I reckon that soon Saudi Arabia will make a play for other Vodafone areas. I have no idea how far they get, but any Telecom company that starts not making their numbers will jump on that churn bandwagon. All this whilst Huawei is breaking new boundaries. So whilst someone reported the great success Nokia is making others make mention that the new setting is coming in 2027 (a presumptuous setting as I haven’t see the full papers). So what of 2025 and 2026? A two year bluff sounds nice, but Huawei is giving us “Stc noted that this solution boosts operational speed by 200% compared to earlier models and significantly extends 5G reach without requiring extensive infrastructure, making it ideal for connecting remote regions efficiently. The solution also improves deployment efficiency by reducing antenna requirements by 67% compared to traditional single-band parallel link methods, lowering tower rental costs.” A more than normal cost efficient solution and it is being rolled out in Saudi Arabia. I reckon that the UAE will follow soon thereafter and in that setting Egypt, Portugal and Spain are likely next. This gives them slices of a multiple times the Saudi population and in that setting with Egypt in their banner the Saudi 5G solution will turn heads and put the other players to shame. It would be a world first that Saudi solutions are cheaper and outperforming other telecom companies for at least 2 years. And that is until the people figure out that the Nokia solutions becomes too expensive. The rot in an economy also implies that the people need cheaper solutions and Nokia is less likely to deliver at that time. As I see it all Saudi Arabia needs to do is to figure out how to add France and Germany to that pool and the Huawei battle will be decided in favour of Huawei. Oh, and whilst you are brooding on that. Consider “Huawei technology must be removed from the UK’s 5G public networks by the end of 2027 under legal documents handed to broadband and mobile operators today” I have NEVER ever seen ample documentation that Huawei was an actual danger. It was proxy tantrums from an American administration trying to bully others to hate Huawei too. Now that the stage changes and when it does (no if it does), Germany will have to turn the rudder in their decisions. I reckon that France will immediately follow suit (a speculation, I have no evidence). All that and now it comes with a directive from Saudi Arabia, who owns a stake in several telecom corporations all over Europe and Africa.

Do you still think I was wrong (or talking shit). The evidence has been out in the open since 2020. It is the tail-side of having no economy left at present. And as I see it, the telecom companies will go for each others throats and in the meantime the STC will keep on buying stakes in the other companies. So take that setting and introduce some unaffordable 6G future solution from Nokia. Are things adding up yet? And don’t forget, 6G might be actually da bomb but it is well over 2 years away, so how are your finances holding up in 2 years? Mine won’t survive, I reckon a lot of others will have a similar problem soon enough.

This gets me to the final push. It was seen in Satellite Pro Me (at https://satelliteprome.com/news/stcs-job-attachment-program-surges-by-72/) where we see ‘STC’s ‘Job Attachment Program’ surges by 72%’ that is even better then the bulk of telecom companies had 20 years ago. As I see it, Saudi Arabia will need a massive staff expansion and retrenching of current staff as we are given “The programme offers STC employees the opportunity to gain hands-on experience, explore career paths, and develop professional skills.” As I speculate to see it, is that the STC is going places and needs staff to do so. The countries I mentioned will need extensive upgrading and a much better service and call centre setting and that is just for starters. As I see it the STC is the largest Telecom employer before the end of 2025. Oh, and that is before we even see where France and Italy are in that setting. This could be the larger push into Europe and I reckon that this is fight that Huawei is happy to see Saudi Arabia do at present. I hope I haven’t oversimplified it for you too much.

Have a great day and good morning to Vancouver where it is now 01:10.

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December 3, 2024 · 22:58

Bully tactics

The BBC (LinkedIn also) gave us a story. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgrwj0p2dd9o) is giving us ‘Trump threatens 100% tariff on Brics nations if they try to replace dollar’. We are given “US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on a bloc of nine nations if they were to create a rival currency to the US dollar. “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” Trump wrote on social media on Saturday.”Now we can shout high and low, but the simple setting is that this is merely the second setting on the line that the good times are over in the US and things are about to get a lot worse. The simplest setting to consider is that if these facts present themselves the first hurdle will crash the little economy that they have. Let me explain. If President elect Trump goes through with that. Stuff in a place called Walmart will become close to twice as expensive. This implies that Walmart will drop all goods from China and India. As such others will have to provide, which will turn out to be close to impossible. Consider that Walmart employs 2,100,000 people and as I see it close to 60% will be out of a job then. Walmart has a net income of 16 billion dollars. It comes from $648 billion dollars. Now all these Chinese and Indian goods would get a 100% Tarif. So what happens when all those goods get a 100% surcharge? The American administration will drown Walmart into oblivion. Add to that the Google issues and China will get near clean run on running the global economy. So why wouldn’t they push for a Yuan to become the new central currency? And in that process slam the American administration as well? I reckon that China is chomping at the bits to get started on that. With the hardships given to Google, Huawei gets a smashing option to take market shares from Google in Europe the Middle East and Asia. Apple will get hit, but not as much. Then we get the Walmart and its wannabe’s who rely on cheap goods from China and India and they will all pretty much lose whatever they had. When we see Walmarts closing all over America many will realise that the game for America is up. I did mention this danger for well over a decade. When you let the debt run out of control with no exit strategy there is no real solution coming. I saw that a mile away, so why didn’t these overpaid economists? Now we get the new AI bubble and soon people will realise that it is merely another gimmick. When the revenue stays away from the books, when these revenues get pushed back again and again the third step will be reached. So president elect can bully as much as they can, but the pole position was missed and whomever is in control have no solutions to offer other then austerity that goes beyond anything Wall Street could ever have predicted and the party is over now. Don’t worry the family members to Sam Walton and Bud Walton will be fine. They can relocate to a nice place where they can spend their money. The other 2.1 million are royally screwed. I will not blame any Walton. They played the economy game and they played it well, they have options. The bulk will not. And when the dollar is replaced, banks, retirement companies will as I suspect buckle as well. The impact of a $36,000,000,000,000 debt. The impact will go slow but it would be undeniable. As BRICS decides on another currency they will attract several other players and the European parties will consider the change and they will do what is in the best interest of their Euro, they will not care about the US dollar for one second. That is the reality that was pretty much spelled out half a decade ago. I get that America will try to do what is best for America, but that option was nulled when parties decided to break up Google. That was the first step towards the end. And now Huawei will be the best option for many players. So as the economic map will be redrawn, we will see a new horizon with India, China, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia at the head of this new horizon. In that new map there is no longer a mention of America, the US dollar will remain a little while longer until all other nations have dumped trillions in dollar bonds. That will be the trigger that ends the world economy as it currently is. 

Have a great day today, tomorrow is the midweek and a mere three weeks until Christmas.

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November 27, 2024 · 17:06

Saudi Fun craft

That is on the agenda. Most people are hauling what they can to see their name in COP29, but the others (or those who put their name down already) are trying to be seen as the anti-China voice in the middle east. Because that is what Trump wants, right?

That is the setting of the next wannabe, the next facilitator or the next service provider. Saudi Arabia, Aramco, the UAE and ADNOC’s next need, that is what their limited view states. I cannot agree. That was what the region needed, the next iteration however is as subtle as a maul to a shin.

You see, most are ‘reacting’ to ‘Better offer needed if the US wants to pull Saudi Arabia away from China’ (Amwaj media) or ‘Saudi Arabia seeks mining deals with Chinese, Indian and Canadian firms in industry push’ (AL-monitor). There are more headlines, but the cautious player notices that America (or USA) is in several instances no longer mentioned. That is the actual play. President  elect Trump has a problem. His library is not on the mind of those who need to have it on their minds and that is a plural issue. Microsoft might be ‘offering’ the world to the UAE in AI, but the critics who know a thing or two are skeptical. I cannot tell if there is a silence delay, or an actual disregard in play for the USA. You need to be in the know with China and a certain palace in Riyadh to know the actual setting. And in this Amwaj gives us “if Washington truly wants Riyadh to join the US camp, it should come up with a better offer—instead of a proposition with strings attached.” Funny that, I said something similar on March 11th 2020 in ‘Who is Miss Calculation?’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/03/11/who-is-miss-calculation/) the words are not the same, but the spirit was. As most would embrace Good business is where you find it, others went for Money talks, bullshit walks. So who was president then?

It does not matter, policies are always on a turntable, but the disc hits that direction 33 times a minute. Faster if you play a CD. No matter whose president when this matter resurfaces. China had a while to set his ducks in a row and he merely needs to watch the fallout whilst he takes shelter regarding the massive boink the Americas show when things turn sour.

America needs a positive hit and that implies being close friends with the Arabian allies UAE and Saudi Arabia. All whilst they know that they need to be friends with China as well. And that is a bitter pill to swallow for America. The tables turn even further as elemental deals (where America would have been the A-team for Arabia) we now see China, India and Canada taking slices of that pie as well. I send stern warnings in 2020 and now we see it happen. So consider that America had the biggest part of that pie until 2015, now we see that America (with $36,000,000,000,000 debt) ends up with a suspected mere 45% of that pie, 55% went into other directions. Add to that the deals Europe and Australia expects to make before Jan 1st 2025 and you see that Saudi Arabia is doing what it needs to do for its country. It might not look nice, but that is the reality of it all and I gave the people heads up for over 4 years. Now it all ‘looks like a crises’ that does not mean it is. It is merely a crises when you were unaware of it all and America was very aware. So seeks the sands with COP29 all whilst there are over 41000 flights each day and many are not needed. So how is that for “biologically formed organic matter”. Yes they will stop some of this all whilst a massive chunk of of these 41000 flight each day could be deleted. So where is COP29 now?

And it gets to be bad, or worse for America. The Tariff deal for Canada is seen as disastrous. But when it can deal with China and Saudi Arabia, what Canada loses on one side, it will gain more on the other side, America painted itself in a corner. And for the sweeter deal? It might be too late for that. China has gained about 15% of the pie that was meant for America, as such the bills will be pushed along forward and there is actual consideration that America would have to lease its land to others to make a shilling and it is not shillings that America needs. It needs a wheelbarrow of these coins. As I see it, America now has less than 4 turns until it can no longer make any moves. It wont be able to afford the entry fee to make a move. As such I personally believe that America has been playing the wrong game. They were playing chess whilst Chinese chess was needed. They never used the board optimal and now that they figured out the game, it is too late for that.

In my own view (optionally a wrong one), the friends of Trump are heading for the hills. They will not get away Scott free, but they will get away. The rest gets saddled with the biggest invoice in human history and they cannot foot the bill. And don’t think that this is not on you all. Your pensions are about to go the way of Lehman Brothers 2003. The loans that are still outgoing will be foreclosed by the banks foreclosing your banks and you end up having nothing to live upon. That too was blatantly obvious before the end of 2023. Now it matters to whom have the flexibility to make moves with whatever capital they have. Don’t rely on the stock markets. Have investments that are mobile, or optionally real estate. I feel certain that it will come to blows in 2025 when America shows that it has issues settling the bills they have. That is when panic goes global. And when you see this unfold those with a decent penny in Aramco and ADNOC will have a return on investment, the rest? Whatever of these rest players will be left alive in Q2 2025, because there is no reality that this will be true.

And when you ask how come? That would be fair and the answer wa staring you in the face. Country 1 gave payment to a debt of country 2 and Country 2 gave payment to a debt of country 1. So what is that called? And this had been going on for decades. I thought the barn was done away with when we learned of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic going south on the debit line. However, the worst was dealt with. This time around it might be worse. The USA would need to call themselves bankrupt and the impact of that is beyond my ability to see, but I am willing to place a bet that China knows exactly what to do. You see, when this comes to pass China and others can vie for the 6,278,000 billion barrels a day it imports. It might be cheaper then getting their own oil, but that is where it is headed. India and China will try to get the largest chunk of it. As such Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Colombia will need new customers and I reckon India and China will be chomping at the bits to get these slices of oil. It will impact global economy to a much larger extent. And that was merely the first part. Consider that Huawei is taking over another slice of technology and you have one country falling short on several fields, merely because they did not think things through. So wanna seen what happens when you owe a bank a massive amount of cash and you can only cover 60% of the monthly payments?

How long until this party is over?

Enjoy the day.

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November 22, 2024 · 20:41

The end is nigh

Yup, it is. And not in a normal way. There is no demon sprouting on the land. You see Lucifer Morningstar has greed driven politicians doing his dirty work and what is more satisfying than any person digging his own grave? So how did this setting deploy? Well as the DoJ decided that there agenda matters most they are about to force Google its Chrome browser. (At https://www.itnews.com.au/news/google-must-sell-chrome-us-doj-argues-613298) We see “Google must sell its Chrome browser, share data and search results with rivals and take other measures – including possibly selling Android – to end its monopoly on online search, prosecutors argued to a judge” Its always the stupid and greedy that redefines the borders of hell. Anyway, whatever his ‘personal’ reasons are the game is literally afoot. In this instance whist that is considered Europe and the Middle East will select the dollars for donuts option and in this we need to consider the second cog in this wheel. It is given to us by Politico (at https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-china-huawei-ban-2029-5g-networks-government-greens-lawmaker-4g-strand/) which they gave us in July. There we are given ‘Germany goes soft on China, dragging out Huawei ban until 2029’ and this ban will be delayed again and again. Lets not forget that American anti-Chinese actions led to this. And no matter how we feel about it. The Americans NEVER gave ample evidence for any of it. So as one start to ferment the sentiments of how stupid this American administration is, Huawei will add to this. You see Huawei now has HarmonyOS and it has a few other arrows in its quiver. The larger setting for the internet of things was ignored for too long. And as Germany delays, so will France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands and the Nordic regions. Like domino stones they will tumble each other. All whilst this administration will find another person to take a metal briefcase to the European leaders like a pop star and we saw that before. So the evidence better be real this time around. Still that will take time and in the meantime we are given by Huawei Central (at https://www.huaweicentral.com/huawei-matepad-pro-13-2-2025-will-reshape-office-experience-ceo/) We are “shown” ‘Huawei MatePad Pro 13.2 2025 will reshape office experience: CEO’ and this is the larger setting. For when Google loses market share, in that same instance Microsoft loses market share as well. The Huawei MatePad Pro 13.2 2025 is now only 4 days away. With HarmonyOS it will be able to connect nearly all other devices. As we are shown that the “Multi-Window enables users to open several apps in split-screen mode for multitasking. One can also swipe an app inward from the left/right edge to bring up the Multi-Window dock. It’s a useful tool for office work, meetings, and more.” That is precisely why politicians should stay away from technology decisions. Basically they are too stupid to see the forest through the trees and in this instance there will be a massive jolt to Google, Microsoft and I reckon that Apple will also see a dip in revenue. Or as some will say “It sucks to be you” to the Attorney General. 

So am I right or am I wrong?
That remains to be seen, but as I see it, the demand for the Google ‘simplification’ will open the doors of HarmonyOS to Europe and for a much stronger setting to the Middle East. And with the uncertainty of the Google stage. Huawei and their data centres. The setting of Google will make a lot of people nervous and that works for Huawei. We were given last year “The launch of the Huawei Cloud Riyadh Region was announced at the Huawei Cloud Summit Saudi Arabia 2023. The new cloud region, located in an STC/Center3 data centre in Riyadh, offers three availability zones. It is the company’s first region in the Middle East.” How long will it take for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to follow suit? And how happy do you think Microsoft will be to do their ‘AI’ work in a Huawei data centre? All this will come to pass (unless someone muzzles the AG). There is a setting to it all and one brick will stumble the next one and the next one. It is the result of the internet of things. And with the Huawei MatePad Pro there is more than just the connectivity. It will slow iPad sales and from there Microsoft will find themselves in more hot waters (some they did to themselves) and the UAE will demand that Microsoft will do its AI work wherever it needs to be and as such Microsoft will enable Huawei even more. All this because someone has anti-Google feelings. For 15 years Google found and created an innovative road. It is not up to the DoJ to reward stupidity to the competitors of Google. They forgot the basics and these settings will now work for China as well. 

And as we see that Politico gives us “Under the agreement, components manufactured by Huawei, China’s leading 5G equipment maker, are to be banned from sensitive core network infrastructure by the end of 2026, rather than by the end of 2025 as previously envisaged, as reported by POLITICO. When it comes to the radio access networks (RAN) such as antenna masts, Huawei components would have to be removed by the end of 2029 instead of the end of 2026. This is a satisfactory outcome for German operators, who were in the process of upgrading these networks anyway, thus limiting extra costs.” You see one thing, but I see that there is no real America by 2027, as such the ban becomes moot. Add to this the expansions that Saudi Arabia is making with the STC. The Saudi Telecom Company is already making waves in Egypt and now it seems Portugal as well all this enables Huawei more and more growth and as Google starts to falter the European politicians will try to divert whatever they can as to not be eaten by their ‘allies’. As the west falls to Huawei and the STC the more hardship America will face. It all started by attacking its own base and by attacking Google they basically drowned their own livestock and  from there the business opportunities they had. Funny for me, not so much for Microsoft who basically let it happen and now that the office suite is under attack (from next week) we will see all kinds of spin by one player on how hard it will be for the shifters. The overt setting was that (an oversimplified setting) the Department of Justice should have stayed out of matters. They hide behind ‘monopoly’ but that game states that all players are equal whilst that setting hasn’t been true for decades. The world had Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Google and Oracle. The others are spinning, making presumptuous presentations on whatever wasn’t real yet and now there will be a tap on the door. How will it end?

I honestly have no idea. The only thing I foresee is that with the breaking up of Google the end will be nigh for those relying on ‘scripted’ settings for the better things that it will bring. Because that just ain’t so. For things to become better true innovators are needed. And the bigger part of those are not in America. The 5 I mentioned has them, but when the For each of those China might have an alternative. Huawei could now replace Google (in part), Tencent with Huawei will be able to replace parts of Apple. As I see it only Oracle has a steady foundation and it all depends on the DoJ waking up what they are about to unleash and still if they do not Credibility towards Google will wane, that much the DoJ already achieved. I wonder if they realise what they are about to achieve. 

The world seems to become more and more Chinese oriented. Well, that is what this administration seemingly wanted.

Have fun with the fallout.

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November 20, 2024 · 18:43

Puzzlement

That happens and it does not matter how bright you are. At times you get the message and it makes no sense (at that moment). I had that yesterday with an article by Fortune (at https://fortune.com/2024/11/17/luxury-goods-lvmh-kering-bain-broken-promises/) we get ‘50 million people have stopped buying luxury brands like Dior and Burberry after ‘broken promises’ to customers’. The first question that pops into my head was ‘How do they get to these numbers?’, lets be clear I am not accusing anyone of anything. Yet that gives us the 100% of Tokyo and Sao Paulo together. To collect that amount of data requires a mind boggling amount of data. I lost track to the article as Fortune hides behind a paywall and I am not that stupid to fall for the ‘disaster’ sales technique. The article gives us brands like Burberry and Dior. As such Simple questions become apparent. 

What form of verification was used?
Data in itself is the biggest liar of all. A simple mistake of cleaning and verifying the data is essential. Example is the question ‘Are you pregnant?’ Is a nice one, when the men are not cleaned out of this setting we get an astounding 50% offset (if we are lucky). The man (always trying to be funny) will answer no, because it is the truth. 

Then we get the broken promises. 

What evidence is there?
I get that Fortune gives us “On some level, brands have broken their promises to consumers” the voice (read: writing) of Marie Driscoll an equity partner. So what evidence are we given. The to some degree aggregated setting gives us LVMH, Burberry and Kering. There is a mention that they missed revenue targets. And suddenly we see that they are surpassed by Ozempic (a Pharma solution). We see not mention of any broken promises. We see all kinds of excuses and no actual mention of broken promises. At best we get the term brand fatigue. Actually I made mention of this in an article in January 2024 called ‘That one sided conversation’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/01/27/that-one-sided-conversation/) my issue is that malls (and brands) need to set their focus to engagement. I even created the setting to do just that And I had the Toronto Eaton Centre as an example as well as the Dubai Mall (and a few other places in Dubai). I never considered broken promises, and as I see it Fortune has no real setting for that either. If you have 50,000,000 consumers. You have data. Whether the consumer told a porky pie (read: lie) or there is another reason like they ran out of cash. The simple setting is data and the article does not give us any. The article is (as I personally see it) a sham. We are given “an equity Analyst told Fortune” the name appears later. Yet, if I had this to say you mention that name EVERYWHERE. And the article goes one step further “Now 50 million luxury consumers have either ditched buying designer bag, scarves, watches and more — or have been priced out, Bain & company’s new annual luxury report warns”

I personally believe that LVMH, Burberry, Gucci (et all) need to demand that data from Fortune. I wonder how long I need to shift through that data to see an astounding amount of gaps that could get Fortune into hot waters? 

I got to see the article in my mobile, but not my laptop (another fine mess I got myself into). 

In these troubled times I have no issue with missed revenue targets and I feel certain that their investors do not have that issue either. The very rich know how they are doing and for the most they also know that of their peers. So if only 2 get their numbers that quarter, they are certain that about 80% will not go shopping everywhere. Optionally they will push back their Burberry suit or dress. There is no shame as I personally see it (and for the record I have never had enough money for a Burberry suit). 

As such my puzzlement. Fortune was always seen by me as a straight error in ‘reporting’ and this article basically threw their credibility in the trashcan.

The Second sight
That comes from the reference to Bain and Company and the stage that was referred to. The headline there was ‘Global luxury spending to land near €1.5 trillion in 2024, remaining relatively flat as consumers prioritise experiences over products amid uncertainty’ an article by Claudia D’Arpizio and Federica Levato. There we see “And yet, 50 million luxury consumers have either opted out of the luxury goods market or been forced out of it in the last two years. This is a signal for brands that it’s time to readjust their value propositions. To win back customers, particularly the younger ones, brands will need to lead with creativity and expand conversation topics. Simultaneously, they must keep their top customers front and center, surprising and delighting them while rediscovering one-to-one human interactions. For all customers, it will be critical to double down on personalisation, leveraging technology to achieve it at scale.” That is a view I can get behind and there is no mention at all of ‘Broken Promises’ (anywhere in the article). These two youthful young sprouts basically confirms my believes that it is about engagement. It does not matter how (I personally chose a generic setting) to engage the consumers in a much larger setting of a place and not a specific brand. I do not disagree with “rediscovering one-to-one human interactions” but as a technologist I prefer my Chicken Shawarma in a one to many configuration. And I do get that to address the very wealthy (aka filthy rich), a one on one setting is likely preferable. But that was never the reason for the IP I created in that setting.

And I for one personally believe that you can ditch the Fortune story and go straight for Bain & Company (at https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-releases/2024/global-luxury-spending-to-land-near-1.5-trillion-in-2024-remaining-relatively-flat-as-consumers-prioritize-experiences-over-products-amid-uncertainty/) the article is quite remarkable. And it was a pleasure to read too. I get that the numbers game can be nerdy and dry, but this story is uplifting and a good thought to address, for anyone in retail that is.

In the end what did Fortune do? Very little, all praise to Bain & Company here.

Have a great day all.

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