Tag Archives: Egypt

May 3, 2025 · 02:25

Where is the gem?

That is the setting I am faced with. You see, like McCarthy had his Russian phobia, Trump is now delivering the Chinese phobia, also known as the yellow fear. We can argue how right McCarthy was in light of the events from the last few years (and a decade before that), But as the yellow fear is grasping America, the question becomes, is it a valid one? I am not denying that there are issues, the larger setting is now on big tech. You see Apple known for its multi trillion dollar value is now under the hammer. The article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86jx18y9e2o) gives us ‘Apple says most US-bound iPhones no longer made in China’ the issue is not that they aren’t made in China. The stage becomes where are they made now? At present Apple is giving us that “It comes as the technology giant estimated that US import taxes could add about $900m (£677.5m) to its costs in the current quarter, despite Trump’s decision to spare key electronics from the new tariffs.” Yet as I see it, the focus is in the wrong area. It is not where it is build now, the question becomes “At what loss?” And it is not money I am speaking of. These plants are Chinese in nature (as far as I can tell), and now we get a very new stage. No matter where they are set. China might not like it that certain IP manufacturing settings will leave China, which would be an acceptable move. Not for Apple and the losses they will receive because of it, and there the tariff war takes another bite out of the meat that is American Revenue. I am not stating that this will be great, but even at a mere 2% loss of quality it will impact numbers and it will hit Apple’s customer satisfaction. A simple setting that will impact the Apple revenue bottom line and it will be more than dollars. This could (could being the operative word) impact customer care numbers too. A whole new area for Apple to maneuver against the economic currents it is fishing in.

As Timmy the Cook gives us “He also said Apple is shifting its supply chain for US-bound products away from China, but it is India and Vietnam that are poised to be major beneficiaries of that move.” It is the setting that I fear, as China is pushed out, whomever gets the new ‘victory’ is likely to be no more than 95% of what China delivered and that impacts, so even if there is merely 1% impact (I fear it is larger) it impacts numbers of produced iPhones, as well as the QC of the product. So not only will Apple see less results, if this holds up the loss of quality (with an impact of more service patches) will upset its customers to no end and the speculative result is that this more merely impacts the need for a Huawei phone (I would be OK with the jump from Apple to Google), which will feel good for Google, but Apple will not be pleased. 

So as we consider “China will remain the country of origin for the vast majority of total products sold outside the US, he added.” With the setting that Made for America will not have the rosy stage that President Trump is hoping for. I might think that Apple will not like it either. And with “However moving production lines to India will take time and significant investment, costing billions of dollars”, with the added “Apple have said they want to invest $500B over the next few years.” And that still comes with my speculated expected loss of quality, a setting that Apple never wanted, or never opted for. 

So what is the real threat? Is it China or has it become President Trump?

Even as the Financial review gives us ‘Apple and Amazon have no idea what’s coming’, I myself don’t agree. They are very much aware that they know. The American Administration howling like little puppies that Amazon was making moves to give their customers a look at what the tariff was doing to their goods with ‘Donald Trump slams Amazon’s rejected plan to display cost of tariffs on goods’ (source: ABC News) I wonder when people will figure out to ask questions from an administration bend on hiding additional charges (to customers) and consider that the quote “US President Donald Trump has labelled a reported plan by online retailer Amazon to display the cost of US tariffs on its products as a “hostile and political act”.” Is clear evidence that this America Administration is all about a lack of transparency. It is the statement from Shanti Kelemen, chief investment officer at M&G Wealth where I have issues. I do not deny that her statement is true, but lacking “There will still be tariffs that impact the supply chains [for Apple] and a cost to move them and build new factories” It took years to get the Chinese factories to work at the level they are now working at. The other factories will have to go through all these pains to get them running and that is before you consider that there would also be staffing issues. China and India have different settings in mental achievements. So the pain for Apple is merely beginning. 

A setting that the bulk of people are overlooking, I wonder why.

So as Amazon scrapped the tariff mention on its pricing, the call was heard by a lot of people and they are now looking at Temu and Alibaba. Alibaba mentioned a net income up by 237.53%. Today the Alibaba group is up by 3.83%. I cannot say how much of an impact the tariff has had there, but as others are merely scraping by and some are even reporting losses, the view on Alibaba might not be seen as a good thing, yet Wall Street seems optimistic about Alibaba (not that I know anything about that). 

So this is where the gem requires seeking. Is it still Apple? And there is a second setting. Will there be a larger call to reject the Apple for American markets? This is not easily answered because it is all depending on what is yet to happen. But Americans might be required to smuggle their new Apple devices into America. All because of a setting that the American administration itself is hunkering down on the lack of transparency. The one weird thing I am noticing is that the tariff solution is setting the minds of others towards what is the right path and at present it is not an American First item. And there is more bad news on the horizon (for America) as we seek gems we should be aware that Huawei is a much larger gem than expected. You see, Huawei is making larger captures revenue that expected. The headline ‘Indonesia is hooked on Huawei’ (Source: ASPI) is important as Indonesia is 3% of the planet. This might not seem much, but it gives Huawei larger importance to get into Bangladesh which gives them another 2%, so in a few short weeks Huawei gets an improved 5% goalpost. They already had visibility all over the Arabian peninsula and as Egypt is becoming a larger slice of their business, we see that America basically lost out of a 7% market share. As I see it America First is having a few corners they slice off from themselves. As these stages are evolving and the setting for Europe changes, as America is fumbling the ball. They are now ready to ignore American ‘advice’ and reopen doors with Huawei (likely with conditions) and as I see it Huawei is likely to respond favorable to that. As I see it, the game is changing andAmerica is losing several base stations in delivered ‘revenue’, a state that was almost unimaginable  less than a year ago. That was shown a mere two months ago with ‘German telcos pool efforts to retain more ‘open’ Huawei – sources’ and as this is realised, the rest of Europe is likely to follow, at least the EU is. 

The gem were not the tech companies, they are found where these companies were not, mainly through the pains given to these companies. Apple was not the focus, the companies that profited by the pain given to Apple. The moment you see that, is the moment that you realise that this chaotic setting is giving Chinese companies the open doors they were waiting for. I have no idea what Russia is up to, but this reminds me of the Toshiba settings. I wonder if this is what was supposed to happen, but no matter what. It seems that Huawei is profiting because of this. And with HarmonyOS now at version 5, Apple and others don’t only have to deal wit Android, they now have a competitor in HarmonyOS devices. This is a time to remember the words of Richard Yu who stated that all Huawei devices the company will launch in 2025 will be powered by HarmonyOS Next. You might have forgotten that, but I did not. So as Apple and Google were given settings of diversification, Huawei combined all the strengths they had and that will also impact market share. 

So as some will be given and accepted that the gem is America First. Others might not agree with that and as some sources are diverted Chinese corporations are now focussed on Asia, Arabian countries and Europe (through TAWAL). A setting I warned for almost two years ago and now it is seemingly happening. So where were these captains of industry?

Have a great day and enjoy the smell of coffee in the morning.

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April 30, 2025 · 04:03

Omitted resources

That is the exercise of this morning. As Reuters treats us to a story (at https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uaes-adnoc-supply-us-lpg-india-following-china-us-tariffs-sources-say-2025-04-29/) giving the reader ‘UAE’S ADNOC to supply US LPG to India following China-US tariffs, sources say’ A setting I saw coming a mile away. As we are given “The move will enable ADNOC to ship more of its own LPG to China, where buyers are paying higher premiums to replace U.S. supply after Beijing imposed steep tariffs on U.S. goods, and reduce LPG costs for India, the world’s No. 2 importer”, so I saw this and the high payed economists in America did not? In my story ‘War of trades’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/02/01/war-of-trades/) I gave on February 1st (almost 3 months ago) “We set the same to India who exports oil to the United States. Set that to Europe (to a much larger degree) and all its Commonwealth allies and America suddenly gets a much larger problem. Well they can import it from Venezuela and Russia I reckon. So, how is that going now President Trump?” This setting was oil and it was from India, so now we see that the UAE is replacing America with India as a new destination. So for America it is no longer about revenue, it becomes a lack of resources as the UAE is now shipping more of its own LPG to China (via India). It is the cumbersome situation involving tariffs. It almost seem like a new puzzle game, not unlike mixed currency deals on the internet. And now (as I see it it) America is losing more than one side in this. So as we read “ADNOC, through its trading units, has agreed to supply some U.S. LPG cargoes to India refiners under the annual contracts from June-July, said sources” as I see it, America is losing tariff revenue that ay and this is merely one step towards a new setting where America is replaced as a resource, and this also means that the political and diplomatic powers of America is dwindling down. In this way the UAE is gaining power both political and diplomatic as India is reassessing what allies they have and who no longer seems to be an ally. In this tariffs will get cumbersome on more ways then one. Soon America is losing additional revenue streams, because this setting is merely a first step. When China sets up new stages with Europe and the Middle East America can go bobbing for apples all they like, but it seems that the apples are being replaced and that sounds a lot like the old premise of murder. Segregation, Separation and Assassination. The stage that we see was made by America, they merely didn’t consider that it could be used against them and as I see it, both China and Russia like the new setting immensely. As I wrote lately that the interest on debt is costing the annual tax revenue to be 15% less, so the belt was already being tightened and now the revenue streams are missing the point they needed to make and another 10% will diminish. So how long until the American economy can no longer afford it? We can believe what Irwin Stelzer (The Times) told us that America’s economy is good. But as CNBC gave us yesterday ‘Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to a summer recession in Apollo’s shocking trade fight timeline’, then we also got a few hours ago ‘Port Of Los Angeles Warns ‘Difficult Decisions’ Ahead As Shipments From China Cease’ (source: Investor’s Business Daily) and 17 minutes ago CNBC gives us ‘Pfizer CEO says tariff uncertainty is deterring further U.S. investment in manufacturing, R&D’ as such, how much more bad news do we need to see before people in media start considering that the economy of America has gone topsy turvy?

And in the meantime as the Commonwealth is strengthening their walls the group of five might soon have one less member (yes, it is America). As such the new costings for the CIA will drastically alter and as the NSA is equally losing access to international intelligence the stage becomes how much money is America willing to pay for less reliable data? 

As such we get a new stage of omitted resources. America is losing revenue in several settings and the outcome of that is not really visible, but it will cost a bundle. A lot more than the tariffs are bringing in. In addition to that they pissed of the largest ally they had for decades and as such are losing more ‘friends’ as they are equally hurt and these ‘friends’ are willing to row it alone without the two dinghies called CIA and NSA. As such more power, revenue and friends are lost. But feel free to think it is all honky dory. And that changes when oil will g missing, so will America keep on selling their own oil, or is that a new revenue stream that will become largely lost soon enough.

You know, I am hesitant to blame President Trump for this setting. The question becomes who pushed this agenda? Are these elected officials blind, or will we see soon see articles with titles like ‘He bullied us and we were afraid’, I have no idea. Just floating an idea here. And when we have added these facts as well as add the fact that the The Arab Weekly gave us yesterday ‘Trump further strains Egypt ties by calling for US ships to cross Suez canal ‘free of charge’’ the story (at https://thearabweekly.com/trump-further-strains-egypt-ties-calling-us-ships-cross-suez-canal-free-charge) gives us ““American Ships, both Military and Commercial, should be allowed to travel, free of charge, through the Panama and Suez Canals!, ” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.” Its was the only source I saw, so keep that in mind. And the response in the same article was “Egyptian MP Mustafa Bakri criticised the remarks, describing them an “attempt at blackmail.”” Do you still believe that America isn’t close to default on all their loans? I wonder who will survive that 36 trillion bad bank setting. 

So, you all have a possible great day and relax if there is still coffee on the shelves. And don’t forget the former governor of the Bank of England works for the Commonwealth, well, actually he works for Canada, not America. Ciao!

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April 29, 2025 · 23:22

News and self reflection

That happens, we all have to reflect on ones self. And I was given, by Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2598647/business-economy) ‘Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports surge 113% since Vision 2030 launch’ here we see “Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports reached an unprecedented SR515 billion ($137 billion) in 2024, marking the highest value in the Kingdom’s history.” It comes with the added “The robust growth spanned all export sectors. Merchandise exports climbed to SR217 billion (+4 percent), fueled by respective increases of 2 percent and 9 percent in petrochemical and non-petrochemical exports.” As such it seems that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is doing well. For me the quote “In 2024, the Kingdom exported goods, re-exports, and services to over 180 countries, with 37 countries registering record import values, including the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, Algeria, Spain, France, Poland, Libya, and Syria. Other countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand, Morocco, Pakistan, Nigeria, Germany, Greece, and Bulgaria, also achieved record import volumes” was important. You see, one of my IP ideas would add Egypt, Bahrain and Bangladesh to that list. Indonesia, Pakistan and Oman were already on that list.

As I see it, the first phase might be a simple $6 billion (﷼22,500,000,000), but after that, I personally believe that the annual revenue could grow to $20 billion (75,000,000,000﷼) I might have gotten the placement of the Saudi riyal symbol wrong. The nice side effect of mixing left to right and right to left issues, but that is what it amounts to, as such a nice 6 to 20 billion annual added to the frame, but neither the Saudi Consulate (or Amazon for that matter) was taking the bait and it was such a nice bait. Still the setting of creating IP with a phase one setting of 6 billion is nothing to laugh at. I wrote about it before and that was merely one of a few IP settings (the rest is not that valuable). Still, I feel strongly about this idea and it fits the Muslim stage for a few reasons and that is beside the idea that it might unite the Muslim nations. 

Still I wonder in light of this news, is my idea really worth that much and will it work? I believe so, the one factor I cannot predict is how Epic Games (the maker of the Unreal Engine 5) will react, because I am not certain if they ever considered other venues beside gaming, as such Tencent becomes a factor as they too could carry the IP and in light of TGP Box (Tencent Games Platform) could it support the stage? With the initial 50 million consoles and in a non gaming condition could they consider the new venture it goes along? With the data centre in Saudi Arabia they might. The setting is diverse and it gives them access to a whole new cluster of users. Then there is the secondary stage of gaming, with a strategy that gives this solution over 1000 games pushing them on par with Sony and Nintendo, are they ready for what comes? In this, on par is pretty much the stage as they will not replace these systems, but ride alongside with them. I don’t know enough of the strategists that Tencent has, I know that I cannot trust Microsoft, but Amazon was a first thought when Google dropped their Google Stadia. The internet of things and Cloud gaming had their pay offs as I saw it, especially as no one was looking in that direction and as two streams were taken from the Google ship it made sense to go to Google first (but they dropped their stadia), so the Luna was the only solution for me. Now that Tencent is up and running there is another option, but it is still a little dependent on what Saudi Arabia will do, they are the corner stone of this solution. 

So as I see this article, I wonder if I am right. Self reflection is important, especially when you are talking about billions, and I do not want to be wrong, which is why I try to be as conservative with the numbers I have. On the other hand, the thought that I have the jackpot idea and I cannot sell it is pretty much killing me and I don’t want Microsoft near this, they have screwed up too much IP as I see it as such I don’t want them near the ideas I have and there are a few more. Still the doubt  grips me, how could I have come up with the idea of billions whilst all the others cannot see what I see. Am I missing something?

The doubt can be debilitating. In other news of the good kind. Mark Carney won the elections, so that is at least something. Now if we could only make Donald Trump shut up about the 51st state, that would be really nice. So have a great day and if you are in Canada, raise your coffee in cheers for Mark Carney (it is 6:00 in Vancouver, way too early for alcohol). 

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April 25, 2025 · 17:25

Changing the reason

That is the setting and it is not a bad setting. The reporter, the spokespeople, no one broke any laws and no one created harm in the process. The latter reason is merely my reason, but with the tariff setting it matters. I am talking about the article in tech radar (at https://www.techradar.com/pro/pc-makers-are-planning-plants-in-saudi-arabia-to-try-and-avoid-us-tariffs) where we are given in the headline ‘PC makers are planning plants in Saudi Arabia to try and avoid US tariffs’, you see, it is not about tariffs at this time (perhaps partially).

You see, the article gives us “Major PC makers like Lenovo, HP and Dell are reportedly exploring building new manufacturing plants in Saudi Arabia in order to avoid high US tariffs on Chinese-made goods.” I reckon that ASUS is doing the same thing. There is a larger prospect. Consider NEOM Sindalah, NEOM Oxagon, NEOM Trojan, NEOM the Line, NEOM Magna and all its 12 subdivisions then we get the Mukaab project in Riyadh. These settings represent thousands of computers and most of them laptops and netbooks. A setting I predicted in January 2024 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/01/25/those-happy-dreams/) on the 25th of January 2024 I implied the need for Saudi Arabia (and the UAE) to change the way customer service was done in these places. With NICE as an example, Saudi Arabia could create a Muslim solution for this and considering the growth of travelers which is supposed to surpass 100,000,000, at present (last year) was over 800,000 people and NICE has that covered, but as it is an Israeli solution, it might not fly in Saudi Arabia or the UAE and as such the premise needed to be changed and in that article I set the premise out a little better (I had retyping my own words).

As such with these thousands of systems required, it makes perfect sense for Lenovo to get into the game on a local setting, I might not be a huge fan of the Lenovo, but plenty of people love them and as such I see tremendous strides forward for Lenovo, my personal vote goes to ASUS, but that does not make Lenovo a bad choice, it is merely not my cup of tea. 

As such when we see “DigiTimes says HP and Dell have also sent teams to Saudi Arabia to scout out potential factory sites following local government invitations. The biggest attraction for manufacturers to relocate to Saudi Arabia are the 10% reciprocal tariffs, compared with 245% for China.” As I personally see it, it needs close tracks to each of these centers, likely it needs to favor Oxagon and Riyadh, but that is merely my point of view. Likely there will be service centers in each of the 4 locations, and relying on how Magna plays out, a larger setting is required there, but other with more geolocating intelligence is required. 

As Lenovo goes there and as the others (DELL, HP) come too, the setting for Saudi Arabia increases, there is at the near coming time a setting where these brands could service clients in Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and Syria as well. It could explode service and sales settings a lot more for these regions than the EU and USA can. So when I see the quote “However, the PC market’s immediate future remains uncertain. “In addition to the direct impact of tariffs, the stop-start nature of announcements and delays have cast uncertainty around pricing for consumer electronics this year,” Canalys Analyst Greg Davis explained.” I merely mention “Go pull the other foot”, you see the tariffs are merely an excuse and an optionally bump in revenue for these companies. I reckon that these reasons Trump (oops typo) the tariff reason at present and as Saudi Arabia makes strides to completing these settings the need for systems increase a lot and the need for servers in these locations would explode the need for CISCO equipment as well. 

This is a larger setting in the need for these companies to get ready as they might require localization and as I see it, the one who is there will get a larger options and a larger slice of the revenue stream. But that could merely be me.

Have a great day and enjoy the weekend. I have to kill hundreds of people in a place called Cyrodil this weekend and I am buying a nice house in Skingrad, but they tell me that I have weird priorities.

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April 11, 2025 · 06:42

Nuance in Black and White

That is what we get, nuance, is it black or white? That is the definition of nuance for some and in this particular case Newsweek. Don’t bother with the 16 or 256 gray scales there are, because that is where their digital money is. But I took offense and that comes with a price. I am talking about the article we see (at https://www.newsweek.com/hajj-visas-saudi-arabia-travel-2056781) with the headline ‘Saudi Arabia Bans Travel Visas for 14 Countries’. It is here we see “Saudi Arabia has banned certain types of visas for travelers from 14 countries, weeks before the annual Muslim pilgrimage known as Hajj”, so far, so good is my view on this. The added “The country is clamping down on visa numbers by temporarily halting travel documents for visitors from a string of countries, with the suspension due to remain in place until after Hajj has concluded in mid-June. Officials made the move to address overcrowding and safety concerns, according to reports.” As such I see it a something that happens and I am OK with this. The issue is seen a little further down where we see “While last summer, Hajj coincided with a vicious heatwave, and more than 1,000 pilgrims died as a result of searing temperatures of up to 125 degrees F.” The issue is that the bulk of all these departed souls came from tour operators who sold them visas on ILLEGAL reasoning. As such they had no Hajj permit and as such there were no provisions, no busses and no shelters for these people. That is the nuance that I see as ‘intentionally skipped’ by Newsweek. I wonder how it feels to be the one intentionally misinforming the people. The nations who are temporary banned from visas are Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sudan, Tunisia, and Yemen. I presumably gather that when we look at the thousand or so victims of tour operators bungling the jobs are showing the numbers that make up these victims. Oh, and I have not ever seen any of the news outlets looking into the tour operators who ‘mis sold’ the travel arrangements for the people who went on their one way trip to Makkah. We do get that in another way “The Times of India reported that people are known to enter Saudi Arabia on visitor or Umrah visas and then overstay in order to perform Hajj without registering officially. This allows them to bypass a quota system, which allocates a set number of Hajj places to each country to help control pilgrim numbers. It is hoped that a crackdown on all types of visas until after Hajj will prevent the problem.” And Newsweek sets the second problem of misinforming their audience What I stated on issues like no provisions, no busses and no shelters for these people is skipped. The Saudi Arabian settings has settings for their pilgrims. There are shelters to temporary hide from the blazing sun, busses to take them to places (which set to be 20 miles apart) and there are water provisions all for those with the Hajj pass. These were all skipped by some and as this is set up for the 2 million pilgrims. As I personally see it, these tour operators became murderers for even entertaining that setting and those who by self interest avoided the Hajj settings did this to themselves, but I fail to see that these were all self serving. The only self serving option I saw was a tour operator making a quick additional buck or two. And Newsweek did nothing to point that out either. There were no investigations by the western media and that is offensive, especially as over a thousand people lost their lives. 

We are given in the end “Muslims with the appropriate visas will be preparing for their trip, while others may have to delay their plans until next year. Meanwhile, the kingdom’s officials will be gearing up for the annual influx of Hajj visitors.” And I like this, but the simple setting of ‘appropriate visas’ is massive and needs to be shown in these places. I reckon that Saudi Arabia needs to make a small movie, optionally on YouTube and TikTok showing the dangers of the wrong visa and optionally letting these people know that these tour operators need to be reported. I wouldn’t hurt to put the fires to the ankles of these tour operators, who I personally see as the number one culprit. 

Have a great and safe day. 

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March 5, 2025 · 14:37

Le désert Arabe

Yes, that is the setting. It is not a desert, it is the final course in a meal that has been brewing since 7 October 2023, like a slow boiled Slow Simmer Beef Stew, but one with a distance, it took 16 months for this stew to come to fruition and now, the final course is up to serving. An Arabian plan that was according to the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjd32xyjg4eo) where we get to see ‘Arab leaders approve $53bn alternative to Trump’s Gaza plan’, a plan agreed upon by some. We are given “Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi also called for a parallel plan alongside the physical reconstruction to move towards what is known as the two state solution – a Palestinian state alongside Israel. This is widely seen by Arab states, and many others, as the only lasting solution to this perpetual conflict, but it is firmly ruled out by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies.” I have reservations. In this my one issue is the setting that we are given as “Some Arab states are known to be calling for the complete dismantling of Hamas; others believe those decisions should be left up to the Palestinians. Hamas is said to have accepted it will not play a role in running Gaza but has made it clear that disarming is a red line.” I reckon it will take a few months until Iran will ‘bolster’ the response given by Hamas as some existential joke in serious form and that is when the parties accept that the given “Wealthy Gulf states appear willing to foot some of the colossal bill. But no one is ready to invest unless they are absolutely convinced buildings won’t come crashing down in another war.” This is the larger difficulty and truth of the matter. We are given “It glosses over the issue of what role, if any, Hamas, will play. There is a vague reference to the “obstacle” of militant groups and said this issue would be resolved if the causes of the conflict with Israel were removed.” Their is never going to be a ‘peace’ setting with Israel. That is the larger problem. And the others (the Arab states) see that this is the larger setting that will require setting. We are given that “Egypt had produced a detailed blueprint, with a 91-page glossy document including images of leafy neighbourhoods and grand public buildings, to counter a US scheme labelled as a “Middle East Riviera” which shocked the Arab world and beyond.” But that merely looks nice. Gaza could have looked that way decades ago, if not the issue of Hamas was given and that will never seize. It will take a little whilst until Hamas is regrouped and when Iran comes with the likely ‘accusation that Hamas has become a flaccid loser to Israel’ and Hamas suddenly gets a new incentive of weapons and missiles the whole thing starts again. I personally believe that neither this plan and the ruffled plan of President Trump would ever have worked. Iran does anything to ‘remain’ islamic relevant (which is a version where Iran and not Saudi Arabia and the UAE are at the head of the Islamic table, that is the primary concern for Iran and they will play the three terrorist teams (Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi forces) to progress ‘their’ view on what should be. So this 91 paged plan seems nice for Palestine, but they are the tools of Iran, all Palestinians are. That is the over-sounding problem.

We might want to digress with ‘it could work’ and what do the Palestinians want, but this game has been played close to a near century setting, going all the way back to 1936. A setting that is 89 years old. And if we get to the nitty gritty part of this. The British wanted a solution for the decades of murder and lynching they were facing by jewish mobs getting back at collaborators and traitors all over Europe and Germany. That was the largest fear England and Western Europe faced in the time of 1944-1960. I personally believe that this was the push for the State of Israel. I am not debating that it was the right thing to do and Jews had that part of the middle east (actually more than that) and now we see the latest view and it is all upbeat and we are eager to accept it because it is an Arab plan, making realising this more likely than any other plan (including any plan that President Trump hands the world) and now the game changes for the next  aggressive action of Hamas will place the Islamic world against them, it will not matter for Iran as I personally see it, because any plan that decreases the hold they want over the Middle East will be directly rejected and soon terrorists from Houthi and Hezbollah will scream foul and ‘come to the aid’ of Hamas. That will exclude another bash in Gaza and at that point Israel will have had enough and will indiscriminately attack Gaza no longer worrying about killing the ‘innocents’. They will kill as I personally see it anything in Gaza ending to a larger extent Palestine life in Gaza and they will become the new Nazi’s (my darkest view on the matter). 

As I see it this plan has merit providing Hamas is destroyed, not merely no weapons, but no Hamas is close to the only setting that is close to acceptable in this.

So whilst we accept that we are given ““The Egypt plan is now an Arab plan,” announced the secretary general of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit at the end of this hours-long gathering.” There is a reflective part in this. What did Iran have to say in the matter? They are the tinderbox for Gaza and Hamas. So whilst we might readily accept “This new plan proposes that Gaza would be run, temporarily, by a “Gaza management committee under the umbrella of the Palestinian government” comprised of qualified technocrats” it is my worry that this comes across as a death sentence to these ‘qualified technocrats’. They are either Hamas, or Hamas minded and if not Hamas will ‘accidentally’ set a new setting of Palestinian traitors (as they are likely to be named). There is one additional setting. There is a larger chance of success when a coalition of Saudi and UAE forces are placed in Gaza (temporary) to oversee safety and security until Palestinian forces are ready to take over. I don’t think it will work, but it has the benefit that Hamas would have to directly attack these forces and that might stop them. It depends on how powerful the Iranian hold over Hamas is. I actually do not know that part of the equation.

The plan is bold, the plan is better than anything there is and the plan leaves enough of Palestinians considering if Hamas was ever a solution, that last one is important for Hamas to be seen as redundant. Will it work? Like many others I hope it will but I remember 1982 Rafah (I was there), so I have concerns. 

Try to have a great day.

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February 5, 2025 · 13:25

News to me

That happens. I do not know everything and it is not my business to know everything. I learned that early in life, before I know thought I knew everything, I learned as I took the oath of a radio operator, that there is a price for knowing too I much and as such I tried to ‘calm’ the need to know too much. When it is in my business to know, I try to know the materials pretty thoroughly. I tech support there was one program I had to know, but I had to know it on dozens of systems and  for the most I knew the goods. This is not some spreadsheet or a presentation program and you know the in’s and outs of the program (not dissing these software solutions) but in one program know the issues on IBM MVS, DEC digital VMS, AS/400, Sun systems, Unit systems, Windows Systems and a whole lot more, and every mainframe had its own coordinators handbook. For the most it was OK. The dealers could help its own customers but when working deeper they came with questions on installation, data cleaning, syntaxes of the system and of course the limitations that existed per system. In an age where there was no system (it was promised, but was always a month away) I kept my head above water. So what does this have to do with the current issue?

It was given to me in the Conversation (at https://theconversation.com/trumps-trade-war-is-forcing-canada-to-revive-a-decades-old-plan-to-reduce-u-s-dependence-248433) where we get ‘Trump’s trade war is forcing Canada to revive a decades-old plan to reduce U.S. dependence’ it is here that we are given “After threatening Canada and Mexico with illegal tariffs, and Canada with annexation, United States President Donald Trump has agreed to hold off on imposing tariffs on Canada for at least 30 days. This decision came after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with Trump and committed to strengthening border security” with the added “Early responses seem to have coalesced around two policies: for Canada to trade less with the U.S. and more with other countries and to strengthen the internal Canadian economy.” This implies that the free trade agreements were signed up with that in mind and to ‘diverge’ Canada to go that way. It seems weird that the ‘councilors’ of this US administration did not hammer on this, or seemingly did not hammer this. You see, as I see it President trump shot himself in the foot here. And then watered all over himself. Two distinct settings that could have been avoided. Now America faces tariffs themselves and come to boot Allies of Canada are signing up deals on all markets which will cost America dearly. It also means that the Commonwealth will become stronger as one together. I don’t know (at present) where India stands, but in retail and pharmaceutical solutions there is every chance that Canada will seek solutions in that field. So as we see “But it will impose significant costs on Canadians and require a fundamental readjustment in how we think about our economy and society.” This might be fair, but that all depends on what India could help save Canada costs, if that is achieved (though pharmaceuticals mainly) the net savings for Canada are a lot greater then expected. There will be cost in the beginning yet in the end it might work out cheaper (not easier) for Canada.

Then we are given “In 1972, then-Secretary of State for External Affairs Mitchell Sharp wrote a paper called “Canada-US Relations: Options for the Future.” At the time, international politics were in a moment of transition, and the U.S. was recalibrating its understanding of its national interest.” It is here we are given (at https://gac.canadiana.ca/view/ooe.b1557737E_001/329) a lot more then we bargained for. It is a 332 page paper, as such the 46MB file is not here, but in its original location. As such I would surmise that American administrations forgot about ‘the U.S. was recalibrating its understanding of its national interest’ it seemingly forgot about this. I prefer to think that the setting of pending bankruptcy is making them knee jerk themselves into the next month and the next and the next. Yet there is a rather nasty hindsight to this (not for me). There is a rather urgent need to reassess criminal behavior. So the settings we see in London and other cities (like Los Angeles) imply that a more Venezuelan setting will come to America (thanks to Steve Inman) his comments are setting a new side to the debate. There is no doubt that these ‘free $1000 thefts’ will result in a need to shoot to kill escalation and for the most no one has a problem with that. This escalation is right on the horizon now. The $1000 misdemeanor setting will  (according to some) take care of the freeloaders and especially shopkeepers are fine with that. So as America does away with its freeloaders we still have an issue in Canada and for the most part I hesitate to consider what made America consider its tariff setting, especially as Canada was considering the paper in 1972, it might have been long, but not too long and in light of current trends this setting was on the horizon as were other options and now that America is feeling its first brunt with BRICS, there was a cautious tale on the horizon. And now that the US administration is setting up a ‘Sovereign Wealth Fund’ with the underlying ““We have tremendous potential,” Trump said while signing the order from the Oval Office on Monday. “I think in a short period of time, we’d have one of the biggest funds.”” (Source: The Guardian) I personally disagree. They HAD tremendous potential and now that they started the tariff wars (it doesn’t matter if it is on hold for 30 days). Canada is now looking at setting additional channels with the Commonwealth, whilst diminishing trade and we now see that there is a 1972 paper who did the hard stuff. The question is how much of that is still valid. I actually don’t know that, but I left the link for your reference. Then there is the options that America left on the floor and now China has an inner track to set a lot more towards the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. I mentioned it more then once in the last two years. As America stifled the sale of their F35, China has been active on at least two weapons trade shows to give rise to the Chengdu J-20 from the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group. Did you think that China left a call for a few dozen billion unanswered? At $110,000,000 that implies at least 3 squadrons and guess what, they will not be compatible with whatever Northrop Grumman or Raytheon has to offer. As such there could be a bigger shift in that setting. And as soon as China ‘proves’ that the Chengdu J-20 is at least equal or even superior to the F35, America loses that game too. You see, China only have to prove it is at least equal, a much lower threshold. Add that to the Canadian setting and as Canada can prove goods to the UAE and Saudi Arabia (optionally Egypt and Bangladesh) that are a few more markets where Canada will get slices of pizza that were meant for America. All that for a tariff? So how much more does America have to lose to show its ‘Sovereign Wealth Fund’ to be close to irrelevant. Yes, others will profit too. Yet Canada never wanted this setting in the first place and that is where short term considerations make some lose ‘their’ war. And just for consideration. Fentanyl is not new. As given by some “Fentanyl was synthesized in 1960 as an intravenous anesthetic and went on the market in the U.S. in 1968. Transdermal fentanyl was developed in the 1980s and was subsequently used for pain management in cancer patients” it was invented by the Belgiums and it has been on the market over half a century. So it is not new, the (speculated) non-actions by America made it an easy drug to score big on. In addition, it is a pharmaceutical  with a boxed warning. So why is it not a controlled substance set to a narcotic? Lets consider that narcotics were ‘outlawed’ in 1914 and went to the American market in 1968. So why was it even allowed? And even as we see in the Conversation where we are given “For the Third Option to be viable today, Canadians must embrace an independent Canadian identity based on respect for democracy, pluralism, the rule of law and human rights. It likely requires consensus that U.S. authoritarianism is wholly unacceptable to Canada.” And this third option point is now reached and so far (as is visible) nearly all the Commonwealth nations. As I see the Australian parties weaseling (my personal assessment) as “Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell is seeking talks with America” (source: News) where we see no clear message to Canada in support as a Commonwealth nation (like weasels as I personally see it). At this setting Scotland shows itself as a much more honorable Commonwealth nation, but the larger issue will be India, as that is where the massive parts of retail goes. I get that India is playing a sensitive game but something must give at some point, Canada needs us now. From a personal note, Canada was there for the Netherlands in WW2. As Dutch born I will stand with Canada on this.

Yet the larger setting is missed. In the end Canada is not the larger play. It will be China and what it can grab from America on the long term from them involving Saudi Arabia, the UAE and optionally Egypt as well.

So have a loverly day and if you are in America try drinking Tim Hortons for a change. It might wake you up faster, stronger and better.

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December 9, 2024 · 18:47

To box office, or not to box office

That is the question and the question is valid as the movies opened up in 2018 with a revenue of $2.6m, seems little but in the few years that passed, annual revenue went up to a quarter of a billion, as such screen daily kept an eye on the Saudi market (at https://www.screendaily.com/features/is-saudi-arabias-box-office-boom-over-or-set-to-rise-again/5199910.article) in that same setting I created the script ‘How to assassinate a politician’ about the assassination of Islamophobe Geert Wilders (the current prime minister of the Netherlands) the alternative title was ‘Essay’ (I came up with that later). I aimed it for the Arabic (Saudi Arabia/UAE) market. I contacted 2-3 player, but I never heard back from them. I thought that through streaming they could also get to the Egyptian market (as well as the Indonesian markets) The ‘bad vibe’ feelings in Indonesian markets might be well received. A Dutch politician getting the Sukarno treatment might keep Indonesian people on their couch watching the demise of the Prime Minister five times over. Anyway, those were my thoughts and it seems that they didn’t agree with me. Still the setting remains. As we get “At least one of the major exhibitor groups operating in Saudi is said to be exploring a possible sale amid high debt levels incurred during its rapid expansion. Last year, AMC Entertainment Holdings, the world’s biggest cinema chain, exited the Saudi market in the face of intense competition, selling to Saudi Entertainment Ventures (Seven), which is operated by the government’s Public Investment Fund.” The intense competition was why I tried the streamers as a possible interested party. We can think box office all we want, but in the end, the people need to be entertained at home. The last time I went to the cinema, it was $19 for the movie and popcorn and a soda set me back another tenner. That’s three months of Netflix. I reckon we need to consider the home office and for a lot of Saudi’s (as well as Indonesians, Egyptians and people in the UAE) the same setting is looming. It is not that streaming is better, it is merely more affordable. Now that Apple is getting more into Saudi Arabia, it will be soon that Apple TV is coming too (or already there). And with the setting of “Bidding wars for titles from major US sellers were common, but less so now. Minimum guarantees have dropped as a result, reflecting the reality of a market that has levelled out. “When Saudi opened up, almost any film would work. But now audiences are a lot more selective,” says the executive.” Makes me feel that there is still a chance of my script making it to the screens of people. The movie plays part in the Netherlands and part in Dammam (no real reason why I chose it) and one scene in Iran. The setting of a movie that deals with islamophobia was appealing to me, because it is something nearly any Islamic person is exposed to (especially in Europe) and as such I created an idea with my copy of Final Draft (given to me for that reason) and a stronger view is given with “One bright spot is the market for Arabic-language content, particularly from Egypt. The figures underline the executive’s point: the top five box-office films of the year so far include two Egyptian titles (action drama Sons Of Rizk 3 and romantic comedy Gawaza Toxic) and one Saudi comedy (Shabab El-Bomb). According to Comscore, Egyptian titles now account for an impressive 25% of the Saudi market, while local Saudi features have a 7% share. US films, by comparison, take 53% of box office in the country.” My movie is not in Arabic, but it was designed with the stage of an Arabic version in mind. I merely lack the language skills to make it directly in Arabic. Now I see that this setting is given with “Egyptian titles now account for an impressive 25%” gives me hope that my final curtain call is not here yet. Yes, it is hope because I had never written a script before this and as I look at the tally where beside ‘How to assassinate a politician’ I am working on ‘Kenos Diastima’ (a TV series in the making), ‘Engonos’ (TV series in the making) and ‘Residuam Vitam’ (mini series in the making). I created these series partly to keep my writing skills up and it wasn’t until ‘How to assassinate a politician’ had formed more completely in my mind that I decided to make it in a script (in Final Draft) and when I started pushing that title did I start to set the blackboard for ‘Residuam Vitam’ which is still forming. 

And as we see this we also need to take notice of Adon Quinn, CEO of Saudi exhibitor Muvi Cinemas, believes that Arabic content can help drive future growth. I am willing to agree, but that is really in my favour. You see it is nice that things go to cinema (happy to help), but I reckon that the streamers in the UAE (Dubai Media) and Saudi Arabia (Aloula) will make the larger difference. The need for Egypt and Indonesia seem clear and Indonesia with a population of 277 million potential viewers should not be underestimated. As Quinn tells us “He points out the wider Saudi box-office slowdown echoes what has happened in markets around the world this year. Its main cause, he says, is the depleted supply of content caused by Covid and last year’s Holly­wood actors and writers strikes. “The strikes had a big impact on the first half of 2024,” he observes. “We’ve seen when the right content is there, the audience is there.”” But he also exposes a problem. The depleted supply is seemingly due to Hollywood. Still tapping the Canadian, Swedish and western European markets might not be a bad idea. Especially as California is about to get a few additional issues and they are not yet polarised into tinseltown (Hollywood). 

There are definitely options for the Arabic market, but I reckon that the streamers will have a much better time they do not need a movie distribution system and they can get a lot of traction roping in a potential viewing group of well over 400,000,000 people. You can fish in a barrel, but the same barrel holding either 400 million or a mere 35 million, that is the setting as I see it and as I have noticed Dubai Media is ready to get on board with that setting (I saw it was ‘proclaimed’ by certain individuals on LinkedIn). 

The market is where you cater to it and I thought it was a good idea to cater to the Arabic markets. Have a great day.

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December 4, 2024 · 20:11

The premise was already set

There were some ‘noises’ on what I wrote yesterday and the ‘ludicrous’ setting of Huawei. Well, lets have a look then. The Corner (at https://thecorner.eu/news-spain/the-government-authorizes-saudi-stc-to-purchase-9-9-of-telefonica/117825/) gave us a few days ago ‘Government Authorises Saudi STC To Purchase 9.9% Of Telefonica’ It does not sound like much, but in that setting together with Egypt (as I reported in 2023) the Saudi Telecom Company was already aligning with Egypt and now as it is settling in Spain, Saudi Arabia has now a direct line of communications with the larger part of Europe. They already had Portugal and optionally also have parts of the United Group (details are not known to me).

Then when we see merely a day ago we get (at https://www.rcrwireless.com/20241202/featured/stc-huawei-5g-saudi-arabia) ‘stc, Huawei to enhance 5G connectivity in Saudi Arabia’ and now we get “Stc noted that this solution boosts operational speed by 200% compared to earlier models. Saudi telco stc and Huawei have announced the commercial rollout of SuperLink, a digital solution designed to enhance 5G connectivity across remote areas in Saudi Arabia.” So whilst we get the softer message from Nokia on 5G and we should forget 5G, because their 6G will be da bomb (slight personal tweaking). Yes, always look at the horizon whilst Huawei is upgrading 5G to something that resembles 5G+. Another fine mess the makers of yesterday’s technology bring us. There is however no timeline for 6G and whilst we hear all the wild stories, I have to argue that the organisations that remained in the dark for the longest of time, now has da bomb? I call that a dead mans bluff. Like what they had done before and nothing came from it. Now that China and Saudi Arabia are setting the new marker we see the setting I warned about in ‘The question remains’ on the 21st of December 2022, two years ago I warned of this setting and Now suddenly we get the Nokia news? (OK it has been out for some time), but we haven’t seen anything out in the open with tests and so forth. In that same time Huawei set the proof all over the place and with HarmonyOS they can go to town, especially if Google is forced to break itself up. And as others are forcing Huawei out, we merely see other telecom companies taking the Huawei lead and offering it to customers. We can see all the ‘bigger’ telecom brands heeding the words from the US and so far it lacked any evidence. New the stage will be set that Saudi Arabia could offer a cheaper solution to people in Europe, the Middle East and Asia a solution with Huawei. Now, we get the setting that the larger Telecom companies will have to compete for the same customers. And in that setting 33 million in Saudi Arabia, a slice of 115 million in Egypt and slices from Portugal and Spain giving them slices of 60 million people. And that is before we consider the fallout all over Europe. You see, in the end these other players need people to fuel part of their profits. The anti-China rhetoric from Trump with the added anti-Huawei rhetoric will fall flat. In the near future they have the numbers and now others are in trouble. I reckon that soon Saudi Arabia will make a play for other Vodafone areas. I have no idea how far they get, but any Telecom company that starts not making their numbers will jump on that churn bandwagon. All this whilst Huawei is breaking new boundaries. So whilst someone reported the great success Nokia is making others make mention that the new setting is coming in 2027 (a presumptuous setting as I haven’t see the full papers). So what of 2025 and 2026? A two year bluff sounds nice, but Huawei is giving us “Stc noted that this solution boosts operational speed by 200% compared to earlier models and significantly extends 5G reach without requiring extensive infrastructure, making it ideal for connecting remote regions efficiently. The solution also improves deployment efficiency by reducing antenna requirements by 67% compared to traditional single-band parallel link methods, lowering tower rental costs.” A more than normal cost efficient solution and it is being rolled out in Saudi Arabia. I reckon that the UAE will follow soon thereafter and in that setting Egypt, Portugal and Spain are likely next. This gives them slices of a multiple times the Saudi population and in that setting with Egypt in their banner the Saudi 5G solution will turn heads and put the other players to shame. It would be a world first that Saudi solutions are cheaper and outperforming other telecom companies for at least 2 years. And that is until the people figure out that the Nokia solutions becomes too expensive. The rot in an economy also implies that the people need cheaper solutions and Nokia is less likely to deliver at that time. As I see it all Saudi Arabia needs to do is to figure out how to add France and Germany to that pool and the Huawei battle will be decided in favour of Huawei. Oh, and whilst you are brooding on that. Consider “Huawei technology must be removed from the UK’s 5G public networks by the end of 2027 under legal documents handed to broadband and mobile operators today” I have NEVER ever seen ample documentation that Huawei was an actual danger. It was proxy tantrums from an American administration trying to bully others to hate Huawei too. Now that the stage changes and when it does (no if it does), Germany will have to turn the rudder in their decisions. I reckon that France will immediately follow suit (a speculation, I have no evidence). All that and now it comes with a directive from Saudi Arabia, who owns a stake in several telecom corporations all over Europe and Africa.

Do you still think I was wrong (or talking shit). The evidence has been out in the open since 2020. It is the tail-side of having no economy left at present. And as I see it, the telecom companies will go for each others throats and in the meantime the STC will keep on buying stakes in the other companies. So take that setting and introduce some unaffordable 6G future solution from Nokia. Are things adding up yet? And don’t forget, 6G might be actually da bomb but it is well over 2 years away, so how are your finances holding up in 2 years? Mine won’t survive, I reckon a lot of others will have a similar problem soon enough.

This gets me to the final push. It was seen in Satellite Pro Me (at https://satelliteprome.com/news/stcs-job-attachment-program-surges-by-72/) where we see ‘STC’s ‘Job Attachment Program’ surges by 72%’ that is even better then the bulk of telecom companies had 20 years ago. As I see it, Saudi Arabia will need a massive staff expansion and retrenching of current staff as we are given “The programme offers STC employees the opportunity to gain hands-on experience, explore career paths, and develop professional skills.” As I speculate to see it, is that the STC is going places and needs staff to do so. The countries I mentioned will need extensive upgrading and a much better service and call centre setting and that is just for starters. As I see it the STC is the largest Telecom employer before the end of 2025. Oh, and that is before we even see where France and Italy are in that setting. This could be the larger push into Europe and I reckon that this is fight that Huawei is happy to see Saudi Arabia do at present. I hope I haven’t oversimplified it for you too much.

Have a great day and good morning to Vancouver where it is now 01:10.

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December 2, 2024 · 00:04

When it rains, it pours

That was the very first thought I had when I was confronted with the opinion piece in the Middle East Monitor (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241129-saudi-arabia-abandons-pursuit-of-us-defence-treaty-over-israel-stalemate/) where we see ‘Saudi Arabia abandons pursuit of US defence treaty over Israel stalemate’. I have said it before and I will say it again. The US needs to stop their stop gap resolution of “We can do this, if we can have….” That is a setting that is past tense. America needs to open all valves to get any revenue out of Saudi Arabia (and other nations there). Now that we see “Saudi Arabia is now pushing for a more modest military cooperation agreement, two Saudi and four Western officials told Reuters” the US needs to stop its appeasement trajectory. On the plus side China is pretty happy with that flawed approach from America. There is every chance that China will open the flood gates and let Saudi Arabia go nuts on the Chengdu J-20. 

Is this a given? Nope, but for others to see Saudi Arabia embracing the J-20 is the first sign that America is about to lose several contracts. Not all (it fits with the modest military cooperation agreement setting) I predicted a loss of 40% towards the US defense contracts and so far there are indications that 30 billion left American shores for Europe and China (unverified numbers). But the first stage has been reached. And the setting changes if this does happen. The American loans are set to a 90%-95% fulfilment of contracts and there are larger consideration that America will at best get 60%-65% restated for America. And it gets worse for the US, Saudi Arabia has stated to grow its national defense settings and if China makes that happen all whilst Antony Blinken remains in the appeasement setting, the losses will get worse. I speculate a lot worse, but I don’t have access to anything reliable for the numbers in that game. As such, I need to add the ‘speculation’ label as I haven’t been connected to defence parties for 42 years. 

We are also given “Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has again made recognition of Israel conditional on it taking concrete steps to create a Palestinian State” I understand that setting, but I personally belief that this should be done after the eradication of Hamas. Saudi Arabia has been under attack through Iranian proxies for too long and as such the three terrorist organisations Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi their eradication becomes a near essential. You want to doubt this? That’s fair but the essential setting becomes that Iran wants to stop the achievements of Neom (including Sindalah, the Line, Trojena, Oxagon and Magna). At some point One of these three parties will be added to the work roster of them and they will introduce small flaws, flaws that might not be noticed now, but in a year or two when things start to go wrong, the costs will enormous. An Iran will be quiet for a larger share of the table that is how it starts and Saudi Arabia is too far ahead now. If we want to protect the achievements of Saudi Arabia eradicating Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah forces becomes the larger setting. All those weakhearted lefties will argue that these people are really sorry and should be forgiven. I say hell with that and eradicate them all. Or have you all forgotten how Saudi Arabia was on the verge of setting the larger stage to include Israel? Some will say that Hamas was brilliant and I say that this is the final straw setting the stage of eradication for these three puppets of Iran. And Iran knows that Israel is about to settle the attacks on the territory of Israel and that would escalate things even further. Now that will happen in two stages. In the first the attacks that Hezbollah will vie for and the threats from Iran takes it even further. The danger here is that Iran could ‘press’ Houthi forces further and that would force the hand of Saudi Arabia. In that stage China could proceed by handing Saudi Arabia a support setting of the Chengdu J-20 as well as the primary delivery of the speculated Xi’an H-20. I reckon that it is not completed yet, but they could hand 3 of these puppies to Saudi Arabia so that the Saudi Airforce could strike against the Houthi Forces. (I did say could, not will). Consider that these two planes would be readily sought by other Arabian nations (including Egypt, Jordan and Iraq) this is largely speculative, but it allows China to take more and more slices from American defence industries. And as this happens Iran needs to hide, because these choices would reduce the Houthi forces to next to nothing and at that point Iranian actions would fall flat and at that point Israel has options and Hamas should have none left. 

As such the Saudi war hammer will carve slices of Yemen to rubble. In all this there are two sides that matter. The first is that the west ignored that stages that China prepared for and now we see that Saudi Arabia has selected for “a more modest military cooperation agreement” with America, as scheduled the door opens for China to get more of towards America assigned spending. As I personally would speculate is that Saudi Arabia is now in a good place to negotiate and as Blinken seemingly trusted on “We can do this, if we can have….” We see that America endangered its position for defence spending. I believe that I am correct, but there are signs that it is based on a opinion piece. Not on reported facts.

What people need to realise is that this all started on October 7th 2023 when Hamas struck the Nova music festival massacre, overall 1,139 people were killed and 250 Israeli civilians and soldiers were taken as hostages to the Gaza Strip. That started this mess but the media is extremely willing to avoid certain matters. And now we see a larger setting Saudi Arabia is (as I personally see it) ready to find a new defence partner and spend billions with that new partner. 

So when some will call this a mild rain, consider that thought because those billions would have paid for the loans which could now fall short of payment for the next few years.

As such appeasement becomes deadening. America made a massive booboo as I see it. Have a fun day.

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