Category Archives: Finance

April 10, 2025 · 12:08

New short term thinking

The news hit me somewhere yesterday. I got it by means of a LinkedIn mention, and it gave me reason to pause. Here is one version of that news (at https://techwireasia.com/2025/04/microsoft-pauses-key-builds-in-indonesia-us-and-uk-amid-infrastructure-review/) with the mention ‘Microsoft pauses data centre investment in Indonesia, US, and UK’, and here we see the byline “Microsoft pauses or delays data centre projects in the UK, US, and Indonesia.”, it is my view that they cannot afford this setting. You might have heard the American expression, “Go big or go home” and I think that Microsoft is about to go home. You see, I have forever had the clear opinion that there is no AI. I call it NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing), the setting that if too many start accepting the setting that I was always right (which comes from the clear setting that there is one AI station and it was given to us by Alan Turing) the people will realise that there is no AI and it comes down to programming and a programmer. That setting puts Microsoft in hot water for a lot of heavy water (to be poured over their heads). And lets be clear, a side you can confirm with mere logical thinking. A data Centre is a long term setting. No matter what you put in the White House (by some called the village idiot) whatever this administration is, it is short term and a data centre is long term and that so called hype around their AI should never waver. You see, this short term action (read: knee jerk reaction) implies short term planning and that is where they all get into hot waters. Why did you think that I made mention that Google needs to put a data centre in Iceland and consolidate their thinking into geo thermal reactors? (Reactors might not be the right word). A setting where ceramic tiles (or cylinders) surrounding new constructions that is not unlike a nuclear reactor, but the reactor is all around them, not Uranium rods, the Lava (or Magma) is the powerful and as it is merely bleeding the radiation, the fuel never dissipates and never ending energy is theirs. For all these parties looking of creating data centers (as far as I can see around 50 in total globally) they will all require energy and as one data centre takes energy close to a amount a small city does, we will get energy issues a lot sooner than we think.

Did Microsoft think this through? Pretty sure they did and their conclusion is that they cannot spend billion on data centers. So at the same time as we are given “Rivals Oracle and OpenAI ramp up investments”, I come to the conclusion that Microsoft can no longer afford the bills their ego’s committed themselves to. Feel free to disagree, but they set out this AI ‘vibe’ and own 49% of OpenAI, so why close down their Data Centers whilst they ‘own’ one of the ramp up partners? They are figuring out that they are too deeply committed. And as the world realizes that NIP is not the same as actual AI, they fear what is coming next.

So you decide what to make of the stage of “Microsoft has acknowledged changing its strategy but declined to provide details about specific projects. “We plan our data centre capacity needs years in advance to ensure we have sufficient infrastructure in the right places,” a Microsoft spokesperson said. “As AI demand continues to grow, and our data centre presence continues to expand, the changes we have made demonstrates the flexibility of our strategy.”” As I see it, it is an answer, but not the one that touches on this. I come with questions as ‘What growth?’ All this sets the need for some lowered activity, not pausing, unless you know what comes next and there is a larger setting with Oracle, Tencent and Huawei, I know there is a Swedish centre as well but I forgot the name. All these are ramping up, but Microsoft is pausing? That makes no sense unless there is another reason and my thought of “They can no longer afford it” takes another gander and when we consider that they paused “North Dakota, Illinois, Wisconsin, the UK midlands and Jakarta, Indonesia.” That implies something is going on and when we combine this with “Microsoft cuts data centre plans and hikes prices in push to make users carry AI costs” (source: The Conversation, March 3rd 2025) these elements together implies (imply, not proven) tells me that there is a funding setting for Microsoft. Combine that with the lovely voiced fact of “OpenAI brought in US$3.7 billion in revenue – but spent almost US$9 billion, for a net loss of around US$5 billion.” (Source: the Conversation) we see another failed setting and that failure gets to be bigger. As Amazon, Google, Oracle, Tencent and Huawei steam ahead getting larger data centers and ready long before Microsoft is there means less revenue for Microsoft. I did say that they could go big or go home? I reckon that Microsoft already lost 6 times on front settings and they lost to Amazon, Apple (twice), Sony, Adobe, Google, and IBM. I should add Huawei to that list but they already bungled that setting before Huawei became an actual competitor. A simple deduction from little stupid old me. 

So whatever you do, you might look into the trust you gave Microsoft and see that you are not left with an empty shell. Oh, and to prove that I am not anti-Microsoft you need to know that they did corner the spreadsheet market (Excel) and the flight Simulator market. Microsoft did some things good, but when it comes to the spin setting of vibes they need to reassess their situation.

Have a great day, it’s midweek now. I am happily in the next day.

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April 9, 2025 · 16:30

A danger possibly foreseen

That was on my mind this morning. It was brought to the surface by the actor John Cryer (the famous duckster as well as a surgeon in NCIS). He referred to an NPR broadcast.

And the article (at https://www.npr.org/2025/04/08/nx-s1-5356476/social-security-new-rules) gave me pause. I had seen this before and after a few minutes and a ‘eureka’ moment I came up with my article ‘Utter Insanity’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/10/04/utter-insanity/) where I (read: Reuters) came up with “That could spare the United States a default, but would force other cuts, possibly in areas like Social Security or military pay.” I had come to that conclusion before that ion a few articles I mention there. It comes to ‘blows’ with “It is the relentless boasting government approach towards “My Credit Card is too big too refuse!” Yet that is at this point exactly what is going to happen next week Friday” and that moment was avoided with millimeters to spare. And now? Now we get the timeline change in a few ways. NPR gives us “Instead, they will have to seek services online or travel in-person to a local Social Security field office, which a new analysis from the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, or CBPP, found amounts to a “45-mile trip for some 6 million seniors.”” Here I do not completely agree with NPR, even though they talk in my street of the equation. The added NPR setting is “More than 4 in 10 retirees apply for their Social Security benefits by phone, as do most spouses who are eligible for benefits,” researchers wrote. “So do the substantial majority of bereaved family members who are eligible for benefits following the death of a worker.” This is a valid setting, however, the American administration has valid issues with “Agency officials have said these new measures “will further safeguard Social Security records and benefits against fraudulent activity” by creating “stronger identity verification procedures.”” I agree that they need to stop Fraudulent settings, but that might not be the best way to go about it. For one, the people with clear settings because they moved to Costa Rica or another warm place where their dollars has a better spread is one reason and there are plenty of places to do that and they fall into a dark gap of nothingness. 

So I am a little on the fence with “Beginning on April 14, Social Security will perform an anti-fraud check on all claims filed over the telephone and flag claims that have fraud risk indicators,” they wrote. “We will continue to conduct 100 percent ID proofing for all in-person claims. 4.5 million telephone claims a year and 70K may be flagged.” I agree a better setting needs to be found, but in clearness the American administration has a clear point with optional Fraud. The clarity is seen in the numbers and if there aren’t any, the question becomes why isn’t there a better documented stage? I for one am in the setting that consulates and embassies need perhaps half a dozen more people in certain places to do that work. Too bad America let go over 30,000 federal employees. Perhaps that was an unforeseen blunder of mega (or is that MAGA?) proportions. 

The fact was that I saw this in 2020 and whilst there were references in 2019 going back to 2014, they were partially the same but founded on different facts. So it might seem the same, but it is not. NPR has given a rather large spotlight on something that starts next week and that will have people buzzing in all kinds of panic modes, because retirees that face this will panic and that is on the administration of THIS government, no one else.

So what is the solution? Well, I have a few ideas, but why do the work for people who are making 7 figure numbers. Let them prove their value or perhaps they might be made redundant (too save a few coins in the process). Oh, and before you think I am merely stirring the pot of panic (not entirely incorrect) I decided to give a few ideas another thought like the Google Data centre on Iceland. You see, before 2022 I had an idea, I reckon it was around 2010, I thought (in light of a few Venusian settings. I saw that there that we get “Venus has an extremely hot average surface temperature of around 867°F (464°C) due to its dense, carbon dioxide-rich atmosphere and a strong greenhouse effect, making it the hottest planet in our solar system.” As such I thought (a partial solution that these sulphur batteries might be actively recharged (and happily ignoring other needs), but for unmanned recon it could suffice. So in the meantime we get 

“Also in 2022, Researchers at Drexel University produced a prototype lithium-sulfur battery that did not degrade over 4000 charge cycles. Analysis has shown that the battery contained monoclinic gamma-phase sulfur, which has been thought to be unstable below 95 degrees Celsius, and only a few studies have shown this type of sulfur to be stable longer than 20 to 30 minutes.”

Yet in a volcano rich environment (like Iceland) these lava pockets might be the stage for thermal interaction and the lava (or magma which is a technical setting) flow could recharge almost indefinite. So we have power and as cooling might not be the issue, water is still needed to cool other stages of a plant like that. Fortunately the Greenland Sea (or North Atlantic around the polar circle) is plenty cool (read: cold), so could these two elements unite to give data centres the steps they need to become energy independent? You see, everyone needs more power, so power will cost more and more and we have Iceland in the North and New Zealand in the south, yet New Zealand doesn’t have thermal energy (as far as I know) so a different solution is needed there.

But the setting is still about social security (I got blown off track). So whilst the people are screaming for fraud setting, are there any clear numbers on how many are using social security for fraud (I am certain it is done), but are they overthrowing the system for 10-50 cases? There are 6 million seniors at risk. The question becomes how do the military deal with these cases? How many retired veterans does America have? Would their system be good enough to be adapted to the senior citizens of America? If the Military needs more staff to deal with this, I reckon that at least 20,000 people were fired and need a new job and as most embassies and consulates have military presence adding a few logistical people might be a better solution. Was that investigated? 

I reckon all good questions, but who has the answers? In the mean time Google needs to create data centers with independent power solutions, because the (around) 50 new data centers that seem to be coming all over the world will draw power dry to a dangerous level, being the odd one out will give them a leg up over anyone else. And perhaps they have a better solution than I just phrased. I am not the best, but I remain trying. That’s more than I can say for a lot of high paying people in the American administrations we see. 

So have a great day and while I have my ice water, I will dream of becoming a Goalie at 63, still preferred with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but Iceland will do as an alternative choice (I doubt they need me, but there you have it, I can be delusional too).

Toodles

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April 8, 2025 · 09:50

The fifth branch

That happens, even as I wrote about crossroads there is always that one intersection that has a fifth branch. The road often ignored and the road avoided, but it is there. So up first is the admittance that what you are about to read is fictive, a pure cog of my brain and optionally nothing more than the thoughts of a conspiracy theorist. And to make matters worse (for me) is that the setting go Google yesterday wasn’t completely coincidental. I wouldn’t mind taking Sergey Brin for a ride (something he didn’t ever deserve) for the simple matter of gaining $15 million. The man has an estimated value of $121.2 billion, so at the setting of him losing 5%-15%, avoiding that to hand me a $15 million (and a job) is not beyond me, I have no idea how to do that, but here comes President Trump and that story begins. 

So yesterday I got to the idea that making money of short selling stock. To do this you need a really stupid idea that will shed the markets. In this we see that over the last 48 hours the markets lost around 10 trillion dollars. So what happens when this is design? The entire tariff setting never made sense, unless it was by design and tariff on a Mc Donald Island (with only one CIEIO) and a lot of penguins, so that the President can claim medicine imbalance. In the meantime unknown ‘friends’ of his when the markets are at their lowest, buy what they can. Another party hands them the money and President Trump claims his 70%, these people will still get 30% and when you have nothing any slice of 3 trillion will do. Even at 1% that is 30 billion and I doubt they will make that much, they will make enough to have their dream retirement at 40-50, something they never thought possible ever. But there you have it and the larger setting is that when the dust settles most offices cannot investigate as too many offices has lost their staff. A weird but not impossible setting.

And the people will claim I am mad, consider that I wrote from the start it is all fictive. I will leave it to the willing courtesans (called media) to connect the dots I placed over the last week and try to cash in on their digital dollars. As for Iceland? Well when the ships (read: governments) sink due to warmongering and China has had enough reasons, issues might rise and then we see that Iceland and New Zealand are the only two safe places on the planet. I chose Iceland as with their volcanoes and hot springs they have foundations on energy production. A nice pickle I avoided didn’t I?

Anyway escape your doom with my fictive imagination and take solace in the knowledge that if this is proven true that President Trump and his gang of extras will quickly evade to Russia (the only country who didn’t get a tariff) and America will see such anger it never saw because the entire American army, the secret service and others do not have the manpower or the ammunition to stop 200,000,000 angry Americans. 

Not a bad play write even if I say so myself. So next stop more creativity for me.
Have a great day and remember the Kjötsúpa (Icelandic Lamb soup) in Reykjavik is apparently phenomenal. 

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April 6, 2025 · 20:39

The color of grass

The CBC just alerted me to something that kind of slipped my mind. There is no reason why it didn’t was on my mind, mainly because I do not harvest for headhunters. But when I saw the story, I thought that it would make a lot of sense. The story (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/us-scientists-canada-1.7502527) gives us ‘Top American scientists just lost their jobs. Canada is rolling out the welcome mat’ the byline of this story is “Manitoba, B.C., Ontario looking to recruit top scientists from the U.S.” You see, as we read and know from the last few months “Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is aiming to cut 20,000 jobs at agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).” So here we have Canada, United Kingdom, Australia, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Germany seeking specialists of all kinds of people and as they were shown the exit by America, others will look happily to bolster their own sides with people that they couldn’t get before. As such Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be getting several Christmas hampers, optionally a dozen this year. Even if he is under orders, there is nothing like governmental gratitude from these nations. Of the sidelines. I can advise these governments that the Hampers at Fortnum and Mason (at https://www.fortnumandmason.com/international-delivery-category) are the best.

As such we see an inverted version of the grass is always greener on the other fellows grave. We now (mostly the Commonwealth nations) are the greener grass. So as we see “One example: Dr. Madhukar Pai, the director of the McGill global health programs, told CBC News he’s expecting a record number of applicants for a new tenure-track job in his department, opening in the coming weeks. It’s a field hit especially hard amid sweeping cuts at the U.S. Agency for International Development that are slashing life-saving programs across the world tackling diseases like HIV and malaria.” As well as “Scientists overseeing cancer research, vaccine and drug approvals, public health and tobacco regulations are also among 10,000 already laid off. Public health experts say the mass firings could have catastrophic impacts for the U.S. and the world.” Here I say that it s more the US then the rest of the world. This is the first instance of an American brain drain. The second setting was the market crashing over the last two days, making these people accept other locations a little sooner than accepted. As we see that ‘Trump tariffs wipe $5 trillion off Wall Street’, we also need to realise that some of these people are hurt in their finances and they seek a way out of the uncertainty. So these people are roaring to be the first with a decent contract under their belt. So as we see “Kevin Griffis, a former CDC communications director, resigned in protest two weeks ago after three years at the agency. He said the mass firings were widely felt and could have unanticipated consequences. If the agency needed to hold a press conference today about a major public health threat, “there’s no one who even knows how to run the sound anymore. Because they fired the studio team,” he said.” That case alone will speed China to remove whatever options the other players have. With that setting consider Dr. Fauci joining a Swiss medical enterprise, and according to Kevin Griffis when Americans do not know what to do when a health crises arrives. So when the next ‘covid’ arrive, the people can rely on the treatments through President Trumps ‘advised’ Hydroxychloroquine, but when that fails? What then. Canada can get a setting to be the next best thing to the CDC, then there is the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and they are a little tired of the American tariff game and could slap a nice 25% tariff on that. The settings for America go from grim to deep black soon enough. Even now we get headlines like ‘Elon Musk backs ‘free trade zone’ between US and Europe’ (source: Al Jazeera) and that is merely for openers.

So whilst the Commonwealth replenishes their shorts on medical experts, America need to wonder what else they could lose. I am still of the mind that America is near to implosion moment of their debts and shutdowns are likely to happen, when that does, these first ‘evaders’ are is a much better position than any other American, even now as the 5 trillion write off hits the entirety of the tech corporation, some will make it, some others will make massive losses taking their home selling efforts almost essential and the billionaires who relied on their Bitcoin, need to realise that this currency is still a few percentage points. So Sergei Brin (all-father of Google) had $142.2 billion, now at 7% less, he seemingly lost 9.95 billion, not that much overall, still more than the 5 billion annual I had reserved for his firm as additional revenue (he dumped the Google Stadia, so that was that) and as Jeff Bezos seemingly lost 13.51 billion, my IP could set him topside in around a speculative 2 years. It is all relative as I see it. Still, this is not about me. As America is losing the handles on the world thought essential services, others will step in to make a move for themself (and I am no different). You see, as the issues evolve, we see scientists that were in unshakable positions, were suddenly shown the door and now as we see “Canadian provinces are already trying to attract American health experts suddenly out of a job. Manitoba is “rolling out the welcome mat” for U.S. trained doctors, nurses and researchers affected by the cuts, said Minister of Health Uzoma Asagwara in a statement to CBC.” And this is only the beginning. As some other fields are shown the cutdowns, we see other ventures all over Europe and even in the Middle East, they are smiling and wringing their hands as fields of opportunity are given to them. The Hollywood fires gave rise to the Dubai Media Group now getting their hands on several lucrative projects. No this is in no way the fault of President Trump, but these small kicks can become a lot bigger. They are not related, but these separate items can become related. As health scientists have possible connections to pharmaceutical corporations, the impact to the larger stage will be visible in less than two years, so consider that in two years the revenue now (which is expected to be $605-$635 billion on medicine in 2025) gets down by 20% (speculative number) in 2027. So what happens when $121 billion goes to other places (like Europe)? So we have Defense (2022-2026) went to China and Europe (close to 90 billion)  now presumption on pharmaceuticals $121 billion less, and the Middle East are now aiming for $10 billion handing that to others and taking that out of America. So how many hits can the American economy endure the loss of of revenue in added fields of revenue again and again. At present (as I personally see it) America needs to pay interest on 36 trillions, which is a little over 2 trillion, all whilst the tax revenue is around $4.92 trillion (2024), so 50% is out on paying the interest of outstanding debts. Do you realise the issues America faces? And now Canada has a first jab at the fired experts in healthcare on several levels and in several disciplines. So how was the tariff game a bright idea? 

And as America loses more and more it is (as I personally see it) nicely on its way to become a third world country, the first in the western world. And I am not surprised as I predicted this as early as June 8th 2014 in the story called ’17 or 70 trillion?’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2014/06/08/17-or-70-trillion/) when I wrote “My issue is not just with the US debt levels, it is also about the ‘blasé’ approach economists are throwing at the people stating that things are not that bad and that it will all work out. That part is a figment of THEIR imagination, because for things to resolve, actions must be taken and none are getting taken at present (or in the near future for that matter). My biggest issue with the Article of Chad Stone is seen at the end. His quote “Lowering the debt ratio comes at a cost, not only risking the recovery if it’s done too fast but also in burdening businesses and households with larger spending cuts, higher taxes or both to stabilize the debt ratio“” I foresaw the dangers 11 years ago, not to this degree, but the setting was clear and as the people are now vacating the sinking ship, the seas become heavy for America and they basically almost capsized the boat themselves. A larger setting is connected and even if we are ‘in denial’ that there is a problem, the people are seemingly rising up all over the United States and Europe with their ‘Hands off’ calls. ABC Australia is giving us ‘Thousands protest against Trump and Musk in ‘Hands Off!’ rallies across US and Europe’ (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-06/thousands-rally-trump-musk-hands-off-protests-across-us/105143038) the American setting has usually been ‘The best defense is a good offense’, I do not disagree, yet I am more on the stage of Julius Caesar (Italian army, 65 BC) he states “the first stage is to protect yourself from enemy retaliation” a better setting and as I see it America has left itself open like never seen before. The (slightly less rich) friends from the American administration are now seeking their own save spot, the enemies are enticing former American friends and I warned of that in the years before 2025. Now we see another nail cast into a coffin named ‘defaulted’ And this is not the end, there is every chance that the defense industry will see its own setting of people seeking early retirement and the market crashes will make them seek other shores, their money is in danger of losing the bulk of its value. Will the markets get back? I feel certain they will, but will they recover enough and soon enough? That becomes the question. To write off over 5 trillion is not easily fixed, that much is clear. The next setting are the tariffs, America needs to cancel them for Europe and the Commonwealth to say the least, that might stem the flow of brainpower, but that is a presumption by me. The opponents of America are battering America’s walls and they did mostly this to themself. 

As such I am on the side of Canada, our Commonwealth brother. And if Manitoba, B.C., and Ontario gets their hands on excellent health experts, then I say “Hurray for Canada” and I raise my cup of coffee to them (no beer in my fridge). 

So you all have a great day and if you are on the board of scientists at the CDC, consider the lakes, excellent trout and pike fishing. The air is clean and the people are mostly friendly (not too much to Maple Leaf friends), they revere the Winnipeg Jets. So that’s all for now and see you all on the flip side.

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April 5, 2025 · 16:09

A political game

You know the setting for President Trump with his tariffs are out there. As only 4 hours ago we got word (via Reuters) that another $5 trillion has been wiped of the markets (at https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-stress-graphic-pix-2025-04-04) we saw another piece of news at NBC (at https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/nintendo-switch-2-pre-orders-us-delayed-trumps-tariffs-rcna199729) giving us ‘Nintendo Switch 2 preorders in U.S. delayed because of Trump’s tariffs’ and my cogs started to think. The population of Seattle is around 4,018,762. Now if only 10% wants to get a Nintendo Switch 2 (I reckon that number is much higher) we end up with 400,000 Washingtons wanting that novel contraption and as such the option for Vancouver to get an additional 2 billion in revenue seems clear. And a smuggling game emerged from my brain. The setting is around the interstate bridge ad connect that to a classical game named Frogger and the setting is near complete.

In this setting we get the frog to make it to the other side. Now we change the setting to:

Here we see the interstate bridge, like frogger (now in a north south setting) we move from truck/car to truck/car, the slow vehicles get its there and the fast vehicles get us there faster. And there seems no real challenge and the blue rectangle is the part we see in the game, so the game scrolls. 

Now we get to the border, the guards move from left to right (the don’t care about the Canadian side), if the guard spots you you are royally screwed and you are out $800, if not you pass and you gain $1500. Now on the way back you get by taxi, but here you can skip from taxi to taxi as they pass, if there is a Maga cap in that taxi, it is yours and when you wear the cap for a second trip the border patrol ignores you when you wear a Maga cap. The task is to smuggle as many as Switch 2 consoles as possible. And you can team up, each their own game, but the scores are shown I reckon 2 (or 4 in true Switch 2 mode). In higher levels the guard move faster and the gaps between cars/trucks increase a little. So, we should thank President Trump to give us a lovely smuggle game. We can improve the game in many ways, like adding fentanyl shipments, which gives us a bonus bump (like times 5), so that the profit goes to $7500, however if you are caught you are stopped for 30 seconds and that is where the opponents get 30 seconds of optional gains. There are a few other things you can do, but I leave that to you. I hand over this idea to the clever Canadian with programming skills. It is an Australian ‘Gudday’ to our Canadian brothers and sisters (the she-form of the male can program just as good as the man can). 

How life can throw you a bonus? Well here you have it and there is not a Trump in sight to stop you. And as I go to enjoy the weekend now, I dream of desperate traders throwing themselves off buildings as their fortunes melted away among the trillions in market value. Trump might have stated ““Hang tough,” he urged his followers on social media. “We can’t lose.”” (Source: BBC), but the desperate and greed driven never hang tough, when the reaper comes reaping, the greed driven become suicidal. A simple lesson from life (1929 to 1939, the great depression where 7% committed suicide). 

So have a great day and when the stocks bite, pray you have a Canadian son/daughter who can program. This me having a spell of additional dark humor.

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April 4, 2025 · 23:24

When is the cure worse than the disease?

That is the question that is haunting me. I see ideas in several media and they make sense, they really do. Yet I am still haunted with the ideas in my head, realising very well that I could be wrong. So is it about right and wrong? No, in the first instance it has become about the unreliability of the press. There are too many signals out there. Then the ‘influencers’ came. With their need for digital gratification, digital reinforcement and the other settings, the conspiracy theorists. As some see me as one of those, I offer the idea that I am merely looking for evidence and that requires a reliable press, one that too often no longer exists. Whilst we look at the signals, we often ignore the spreader of the news and the channels they are moved to. 

There are noises that some republicans are deserting President Trump and stop the tariffs on Canada. It is a first setting, but is it enough?

I believe the damage was already done, and whilst you think that this is a joke, consider the other one. 

So, is the joke a mere meme? Is the meme real? Well, the data can be checked and as such why exempt Russia and not Canada? Fentanyl? The data show that Canada is hardly a bump on the scales. Then we get the classification of Fentanyl. According to the United States Sentencing Commission 86.4% were United States citizens. So what gives? According to their statistics

  • Southern District of California (229);
  • District of Arizona (177);
  • Western District of Texas (128);
  • Southern District of New York (94);
  • District of Massachusetts (90);
  • Eastern District of Missouri (90).

As such, the direct route from Canada into the US, we get from Vancouver into Seattle and the state of Washington doesn’t get to that list, which is what I would expect. It can be reached by bridge, the Interstate Bridge to be exact and it takes 130,000 vehicles daily. So as I see it, the numbers do not match the crime and the accusations. 

So what is this really about? In my version is is a distraction on how bad the finances of the United States really are. With 36 trillion in debt, the interest is about 1 trillion a year. We don’t get to much on that do we? So why slap the tariffs on the Commonwealth? The only think that kinda makes sense is that America is on the verge of defaulting its loans and it needs to prevent this, but that idea (the one I am having) is flawed. So is President Trump merely doing a distraction? The reason for this setting is that the press should have been all over this, but they are (by my reckoning) too busy for the grabbing of digital dollars. If the other nations economically collapse America stands a chance, but I agree the evidence to this is flimsy at best. But the other versions are even less likely, still they do have merit. And in all this, Russia gets no tariff? Not even pro forma? It makes no sense to me, but then I was never an economic.

On March 10th the US markets get to write off 4 trillion dollars, so when was that a good thing? As I personally (and possibly wrong) see it, when the markets lose value, the debt of America goes down as well (shake statement), or at least America gets to make deals, because when holding the debt is all that remains, the larger powerbrokers want to hold on to what they can. It gives America time to find a solution (not that there is one). As I personally see it, the real money is in Saudi Arabia and the UAE for staters, but they are the largest jewels in any crown and whilst America gets rid of any competitors through tariffs, their options open up. In the end America gets to compete with the Commonwealth, the EU and China. Three in stead of 30, it makes tactical sense. And the first issue is that all wars are set in deception following that premise the acts of President Trump make perfect sense. But is my vision on what happens right? That is what I wonder about, because I recognise that I might be wrong and the press is less help than usual.

That is merely my view on the matter and as such I stand behind PM Mark Carney and Canada, because Canada is a Commonwealth brother as are the other Commonwealth nations. So feel free to deny my vision, it is OK to oppose this or ignore this. But see what the evidence shows you and take it from there. That is all I can tell you, make up your own mind.

Have a great day, it’s almost Saturday for me (in about 40 minutes).

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April 1, 2025 · 01:46

Accused, Bluff, Carney

It is a regular A,B,C. And at first I let it slide but then I got a response from the most ignorant stupid Canadian on the planet, I kid you not. As such I had to pick this up. 

Mark Carney (formerly known as Markie Mark of the British Bank) is now at present the PM of Canada and there is an election coming up. So now we get the accusation (as far as I can see) from the National Post. A magazine who is on the side off whomever opposes Mark Carney (conservatively minded), and will you believe it, they are pushing for plagiarism, weirdly enough, the article is well written making the setting a larger problem and all the other sources basically repeat what the National Post gave its readers. 

Two stood out
First there is the Independent (at https://www.independent.co.uk/politics/mark-carney-canada-prime-minister-plagiarism-oxford-b2723812.html) here we also see ‘Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney accused of plagiarism in his Oxford thesis’, now the issues I had was that the accusation came right when there is an election, the larger setting is that this happened 30 years ago and it was at Oxford and academics take plagiarism as the big booboo. As such there is a larger look at Plagiarism (I remember my days in Uni and there is a frightening fear for that word). 

The independent gives us “The accusations were reportedly made by three academics chosen to assess the liberal leader’s 1995 theses for his doctorate by the conservative newspaper the National Post.” More important we were given ““As an academic of nearly 40 years, I see no evidence of plagiarism in the thesis you cited, nor any unusual academic practices,” she emphasized.” This is given to us by Margaret Meyer, an American economist and an economics fellow at Nuffield College in Oxford University. In addition she gives us “Mark’s thesis was evaluated and approved by a faculty committee that saw his work for what it is: an impressive and thoroughly researched analysis that set him apart from his peers” added to that we get “A spokesperson for the Liberal campaign, Isabella Orozco-Madison, called the allegations an “irresponsible mischaracterization” of Carney’s work.” So far, so good. I believe that a thesis would not be unattended for 30 years, not from a place like Oxford. You see, Oxford is surrounded by close to a thousand reporters in any given day, and they have Cambridge looking over their shoulders, just like Oxford is watching Cambridge like a hawk. As I see it, there are issues to some degree and as such we get to the second piece. It comes from 

Where we are given “In my January 2024 blog post, “Plagiarism Witch Hunts Cause Harm,” about the case of former Harvard University President, Dr. Claudine Gay, I pointed out that we appear to be in an era where plagiarism is increasingly weaponized against public figures. Following the resignation of Dr. Gay amid plagiarism allegations, we have seen a troubling pattern of using academic integrity as a political weapon rather than an educational concern.” And this is followed by “There is no singular or universally accepted definition of plagiarism. Oxford University defines it as “presenting work or ideas from another source as your own.” However, interpretations of definitions, as well as the definitions themselves can vary from one university to the next, as I have pointed out elsewhere. In Carney’s case, his doctoral supervisor defended his work, stating she saw “no evidence of plagiarism in the thesis,” whereas academics consulted by the National Post disagreed. One professor, Dr. Geoffrey Sigalet, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia Okanagan (UBCO) stated that the unattributed quotes are “what we call plagiarism.” According to the National Post article, Dr. Sigalet is a member of the UBCO’s institutional president’s advisory committee on student discipline, “which handles cases of plagiarism for the university”. This disagreement underscores the subjectivity in evaluating academic integrity.” With the added question that gives weight to a few issues I have being “Upon reading the National Post article, one question that I had was: was Mr. Carney informed of the allegations before they were investigated?” My issues was that the media could be in hotter waters than they think. As I see it they propagated this setting by basically whaling whatever the National Post handed down to their audience. The added setting given to us is the one why I basically rejected the article, especially as Markie Mark is an Oxford graduate, on a personal note it isn’t the University of Technology Sydney, but they are a larger lead in university educations. And as such when we are given “Investigating work completed nearly 30 years ago raises questions about motives and impact. As I have pointed out previously when I commented on the Dr. Claudine Gay case, “a retroactive investigation into a person’s academic work while they were a student is often an exercise in discrediting someone in their current professional role.”” I basically rejected the stance as I presumed the clarity of the “using academic integrity as a political weapon”, yet I personally would want to call it “abusing academic integrity and misaligning it as a political weapon” A setting that one raised probably in favor of their Conservative Leader (I believe that in Canada it currently is Pierre Polivicious) and that setting we get to the last part given to us by Sarah Elaine Eaton, PhD, a Professor and Research Chair in the Werklund School of Education. She gives us the cherrie of the pie. It is given through “So, Did Mark Carney Plagiarize or Not? The answer is, I don’t know. When I conduct an analysis of text for possible plagiarism, it is a meticulously in-depth and detailed process. I start with the allegedly plagiarized text and I go through it line-by-line comparing it to the original sources from which text has been allegedly lifted without attribution. That can show whether or not there is a potential ‘text match’. There are examples of possible text matches in the National Post article, but they are selective. I cannot make a call on whether or not there was plagiarism based on excerpts. I would want to see the full texts (original and allegedly plagiarized), not bits and pieces.

If we can identify a possible text match, then we need to look for additional evidence. Was this sloppy scholarship or poor academic literacy? For example, were the original sources perhaps listed in the bibliography, but the direct quotations were not attributed in the main body of the text? In the context of the entire thesis, would it appear as though the student was deliberately trying to deceive their supervisor or academic advisory committee. (Intent to deceive is difficult, if not impossible to prove in many cases.)” This is the cherrie as it allows to ask the media to ask these questions, especially the media that merely copied what the National Post gave us. And these publications gave us lacking settings in addition. Who talked to the supervisor of Mark Carney? Who took the questions to Nuffield College, Oxford? Seems like two essential sources for these articles. I see several sources lacking. 

As such I have said my piece and I do not believe that there is a case for plagiarism against Mark Carney. Not because I got the paper (I basically lack economic knowledge), but for the simple setting that a place like Oxford will slap down any student who pushes Plagiarism, intentional or not. Such plagiarism cases hurt Oxford as much as the student. Then there is the timeline. Do you think that the Bank Of England takes on a student who attempts plagiarism? The timeline includes Goldman Sachs (that place is loaded with economy guys) and his work would have been scrutinized by dozens of people and 30 year later, just at the upcoming election someone makes a breakthrough? It smells like yesterdays diapers as Baby Herman told Roger Rabbit. 

Have a great day and enjoy the smell of coffee today.

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March 30, 2025 · 06:45

The need for a credit card

That is what we all think at times. There are two stages that stop us for getting one, or to get the credit limit upgraded. The first is work. It is hard to tap into that ‘virtual’ resource when you are out of work. The second stage is that if you have a job and it pays, the future of the company you work for makes upgrading limits a genuine problem. Even if the bank approves it, you yourself at times wonder if you should make that jump. Rightfully so as you soon realise that you are merely working to pay the interest bills.

So where is this going?
Well America is in that situation right now. It failed to ‘bolster’ its size by claiming Canada and it is now in a bullying stage then there is Greenland, which is funny because no one wanted Greenland for the longest of times and now it get ‘courted’ by America. Of course the courtship (like any courtship) is usually based on lies and on presentations in a different direction. Like most men, the first notion of a courtship is to push his dick onto her vagina no matter the cost to her. This reminds me of a joke Jack Whitehall stated: “We all look at the village idiot in some way, here in the UK we put him on the street, In America you love village idiots. They end up in the White House” and that is basically the setting they face. His bully tactics are coming up short and for the most part the skeptics are watching what is coming next. I considered the options and as I have been keeping an eye on the American economy, I see the play they essentially need to play. You see, America has run out of Credit Card Space and they need to upgrade their credit card. So first they talk trash on Canada and try to make it their 51st State. But now that it is failing they need alternatives. 

But the cause is worse than the need, they now face massive changes as Canada, part of the Commonwealth is seeking alternatives with Commonwealth nations. Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom seem to be on board to support each other and that is what America never counted on. Then there is the EU and some of these nations (two at present) are dumping their F35 aspirations and they are looking elsewhere for their planes. It might not be large customers, but it is a beginning and that gives rise to alternatives.

Getting back on point.
We see news by several channels, ABC for one gives us “Mr Trump iterated that the island was important for US national security. The US president has not clarified how or when he aims to annex it, but he has not ruled out using military or economic power.” As I personally see it, the real reason is “Greenland has rich untapped mineral resources and oil and gas, but development has been slow” that same setting exists for Canada and the US desperately needs to upgrade its Credit Card and that is one way to set it to a reality. As I see it, as a Courtesan truly worthy of the name village idiot he sets the trash talk to stellar to make these two ladies drop their briefs and that isn’t happening. Moreover (I for one) and plenty of others feel very protective of Canada. Greenland less so, but that is a Danish/EU setting. The method employed is just too icky. And now as American debts are surpassing thirty six trillion dollars with no handle on spending, the credit card needs to be upgraded before America has to default on things. As such Canada needs protection from the Commonwealth nations or it gets dragged into that hole named America. And that debt is shown as $36,000,000,000,000 and two elements will hammer America. The first is that the debt is now higher that its GDP, this might not seem like it is a big thing, but these are trillions and there is no stop spending in effect. Also the larger issue is interest. You see, then we look at that we see that Australia has a 3.28% debt setting. I cannot say exactly what America’s is but it should be over 2%, this means that 720 billion dollars interest will be due every year (a little over simplified) and seeing that the American tax office collected $4.9 trillion in FY 2024, we see that 14.693% of the taxation is lost on interest payments and it is getting worse. So a nation that is spending in all the wrong places gets to live of 85% of its budget and last year (2024) it was dealing with a deficit of $1.8 trillion (or 1800 billion dollars). So what happens when you have to do this on 85% of your budget?

This is why America needs to upgrade its credit card and it is falling short. Especially as nations rally against the baboonic trash-talking bully tactics of the president of the United States. As well as national interest, particularly Canada and Denmark.

There is but one larger solution in play. When America defaults before it resorts to military options, the game is over for America. It would become a third world nation over night. If not than we have a non-preferred option and that is to run into the arms of People’s Republic of China. There is the chance that the world will react to a larger degree all American items, which is bad news for Apple and Microsoft, but that is the stage that is evolving.

I have the stage (personally fueled) that America collapsing is not the worst thing, but all those enjoying retirement plans that they saved up for their whole life, they can rejoin the workforce until they die. I reckon the ultra rich will lose a chunk of their value and they will evade to Bermuda, Monaco or the UAE to life out their lives. The rest will learn that the vote of 2024 was the worst day in their life but that is what we face. The rest of the nations have no reason to celebrate. When the dollar goes, so do the Yen and the Euro. As I see it, President Xi was ready for this by playing the waiting game. He will gain the economic options of 27 EU nations and up to 56 Commonwealth states. On the upside, Canada might get an infusion of cash as they build several airbases on their southern border (a presumption of me). The irony is funny, to pretend to serve national interests, president Trump caused the creation of Chinese airbases on their northern borders.

As Wall Street fixes on what is likely to happen, they need to set the shores of financial options and as I personally see it, those shores remain under attack for the better part of a decade and the is bad news for Wall Street as the economy doesn’t have that much time anymore. Im actually not sure how America survives 2026 at present. 

Well, have a nice day and consider where you are and where you are likely to be soon enough.

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March 28, 2025 · 01:36

The old frame of thought

Today I had a small meeting (read: presentation to watch) and I got struck with an idea that would give that person 10,000 customers. She hadn’t thought of it, so now she has a new focus on clients. If she can solve one idea, she will have access to millions of users. That is all I have to say about that. You see this evening I was brooding (like I usually do) and I suddenly thought of an old idea. I haven’t seen anyone using this setting in today’s world and I had to giggle. You see, perhaps some have thought of the idea, but I had worked it out. And it is no longer a focus of mine. It is perhaps my weakness. I like to work out puzzles. When I have solved it the drive slows in me, it becomes a typing exercise and that is not what I am about.

The original idea (and it was programmed) in Clipper. A DBA’s faithful companion, the Nantucket Clipper compiler. And it was something I revered doing. So what was the puzzle. In the Netherlands, pub owners need to pay BTW (their version of VAT) over all the drinks they sell. A such I took a different path. You see, a bottle of booze is a known amount, each bottle represents X amount of drinks. And over the quarter they represent a set amount of VAT. As such I went with the setting of every bottle. Now to make the calculation, 17 drinks of spirits go out of a 750ML bottle. Now a bar gets their delivery of certain amount of booze. That ticket gets implemented in the system and you know what is due, now at the end of the quarter you do a stocktake and we get drinks minus stock equals VAT due. There was a second upside in this. As you get the list per brand, should the staff steal and ‘replace’ a few bottles. The equation sees that and you know you have a problem. 

So as the proprietor enters each receipt duly when it arrives, they would know ahead of time what is due and you won’t need an accountant to make the calculations, you merely hand over the printout and the setting is known. As such I made the program and that proprietor saved himself hundreds of dollars on accountant costs every quarter. In addition that you get a nice setting of revenue streams and you know where your settings are. So feel free to use this idea and get additional income streams. I did it decades ago and it is no longer interesting to me. I have other fries to fry. 

I just saw another puzzle, but as I am no longer a programmer, I might place it here is a few days (or I might hand it over to someone I like). Life is all about balancing points. So as I am listening to David Sylvian, I might brood a little more. Most likely on the setting I presented a few days ago (might have been a week) on the application of Eki stamps outside of Japan in all manners (I made a theme park mention) and I also made mention on another setting of Disney park and personal amateur video settings. For some reason my mind goes back to that, there seems to be more there. It seems that my mind is trying to alert me to unseen stuff. Not sure yet what to make of that, but I’ll work it out somehow. 

At present there is a gap from what I see and what I am missing, but there is enough time. At least I have given Amazon, Google and Microsoft a run for their money and they seem to come up short. Not really my problem, my mind keeps on creating, so off I go with a sample of snoring partially through the night. If I only could see what my mind is trying to tell me. Ah well. Such is life. So feel free to mould the idea I had decades ago into something you can sell. It is all yours.

Have a great day, i’ll be brooding a little while longer.

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March 26, 2025 · 22:06

The tradeoff

That is at times the question and the BBC is introducing us to a hell of a tradeoff. The story (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0kglle0p3vo) is giving us ‘Meta considers charging for ad-free Facebook and Instagram in the UK’, the setting is not really a surprise. On April 10th 2018 we were clearly given “Senator, we run ads” and we all laughed. Congress is trying to be smart over and over again and Mark Zuckerberg was showing them the ropes. Every single time. There was little or no question on this on how they were making money. Yet now the game changes. You see, in the past Facebook (say META) was the captain of their data vessel. A system where they had the power and the collective security of our data in hands. There was no question on any setting and even I was in the assumption that they had firm hands on a data repository a lot larger than the vault if the Bank of England. That was until Cambridge Analytica and in March 2018 their business practices were shown the limelight and it also meant that Facebook no longer had control of their ship of data, which meant that their ‘treasure’ was fading. 

So now we get “Facebook and Instagram owner Meta is considering a paid subscription in the UK which would remove adverts from its platforms. Under the plans, people using the social media sites could be asked to pay for an ad-free experience if they do not want their data to be tracked.” It makes perfect sense that under the guise of no advertising, the mention of paid services make perfect sense. This is given to us via the setting of “It comes as the company agreed to stop targeting ads at a British woman last week following a protracted legal battle.” I don’t get it, the protracted legal battle seems odd as this was the tradeoff for a free service. Is this a woke thing? You get a free service and the advertising is the process for this. As such I do not get the issue of “Guidance issued by the regulator in January states that users must be presented with a genuine free choice.” This makes some kind of sense, so it is either pay for the service or suffer the consequences of advertising. And lets be clear the value of META relies on targeted advertising. What is the use of targeting everyone for a car ad when it includes the 26% of the people who do not have a drivers license. There is the addition that these people need to have an income of over $45,000 to afford the 2025 Lexus RX $90,350 which is about 30%. We can (presumptively) assume that this get us a population of about 20%-25%, so does it make any sense for Lexus to address the 100% whilst only one in four or one in five is optionally in the market? Makes no sense does it? As such META needs to rely on as much targeted advertising as it can. And as you can see, The advertising model, known as “consent or pay”, has become increasingly popular. And at some point they were giving the people “But it reduced its prices and said it would provide a way for users not willing to pay to opt to see adverts which are “less personalised”, in response to regulatory concerns.” That is partially acceptable, but I have a different issue. You see, I foresee issues with “less personalised”, apart from gambling sites, there is a larger concern that even as Facebook (or META) isn’t capturing some data. There is the larger fear that some will offer some services and now care about capturing collected data. For example sites outside the EU (or UK). Sites in China and Russia like their social sites that collect this data and optionally sell it to META. You see, there is as I currently see it no defense on this. Like in the 90’s when American providers made some agreement, but some of them did not qualify the stage of what happened to the data backups and those were not considered, when they were addressed it was years later and the data had left the barn (almost everywhere). 

There is a fear (a personal fear) that the so called captains of industry have not considered (I reckon intentionally) the need of replacing and protecting aggregated data and aggregated results. Which allows for a whole battery of additional statistics. Another personal fear is the approach to data and what they laughingly call AI. It is hard to set a stage, but I will try. 

To get this I will refer to a program called SPSS (now IBM Statistics) so called {In SPSS, cluster analysis groups similar data points into clusters, while discriminant analysis classifies data points into pre-defined groups based on predictor variables.}

So to get data points into a grouping like income to household types, this is a cluster analyses.

And to get household types onto data points like income to household types, is called a discriminant analyses. Now as I personally see it (I am definitely not a statistician) If one direction is determined, the other one should always fail. It is a one direction solution. So a cluster analyses is proven, a discriminant analyses to income ill always fail and vice versa. Now with NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing, which is what these AI firms do) They will try to set a stage to make this work. And that is how the wheels come of the wagon and we get a whole range of weird results. But now as people set the stage for contributing to third party parsing and resource aggregation, I feel that a dangerous setting could evolve and there is no defense against that. As I see it, the ‘data boys’ need to isolate the chance of us being aggregated through third parties and as I see it META needs to be isolated from that level of data ‘intrusion’. A dangerous level of data to say the least.

There is always a downside to a tradeoff and too many aren’t aware of the downside of that tradeoff. So have a great day and try to have a half cup of good coffee (data boys get that old premise)

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