Tag Archives: China

January 12, 2025 · 05:58

Who’s funny now?

It was just after midnight when an article hit the retinals of my eyes. It happens and most of the time it is just as it is. Not this time, this time was different. You see, a few days ago on January 9th 2025 in my view (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/09/is-it-semantics/) with the title ‘Is it semantics?’ I wrote “I will let you decide, yet consider that America opened to door to grow China in near exponential size, because they could end up with options in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.” As some people laughed at my ‘sense of humor’ they ridiculed the setting from ever happening. Now the BBC gave me a mere 4 hours ago ‘Reeves defends China visit and hails £600m boost to UK’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqx9jggw9ndo), as I see it the die is cast and now you (Americans) get to ridicule the setting. Perhaps it was a simple joke to keep the mind of tariff changes, but that is not how it is playing out, is it? The article gives us “Chancellor Rachel Reeves has defended her decision to travel to China to improve economic ties at a time when soaring government borrowing costs threaten to squeeze UK public finances.” The added “The Treasury said Reeves’ visit to China delivered on a “commitment to explore deeper economic co-operation” between Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and President Xi, made last year. BBC economics editor Faisal Islam said other European nations such as Spain have encouraged China not just to set up factories but to transfer its advanced battery technology, for example, into Europe.” Brings another setting to the table. Is that why Elon Musk wanted Starmer out? The timeline makes sense. America would have known about this in advance and the noise we heard was around the time this was going down on plan papers. So Elon Musk was pushing his ‘ideas’ through the populistic channels available to him? I knew nothing of the sort, but I predicted the setting as an available one. And now we get “other European nations such as Spain have encouraged China not just to set up factories but to transfer its advanced battery technology, for example, into Europe.” This implies that Spain is also on the China horse of economic opportunity. This implies that China is making progress towards the UK (and optionally also into Australia, Canada and New Zealand) as well as direct opening moves by Spain (and others) into Europe. America is not really laughing now, are they? In opposition we see “Tory MP and former security minister Tom Tugendhat told BBC Radio 4’s Today program that the timing of Reeves’ visit to China was questionable. “She’s going at a time when her Budget has sacked the economy, we’ve got debt rates going up, and she looks like she’s going with a begging bowl, not with a trading deal,” he said. “That’s a real problem because actually it makes the UK look more vulnerable, and others around the world will see it too.”” 

Well, the UK doesn’t look more vulnerable. It is more vulnerable and it started 8-10 years ago when Mario Draghi decided to push his idea for spending in excess of €2 trillion. Yup, the invoice is due at some point and the UK is actively seeking solutions now, preferable before European nations do. As such I saw that dinner bell chime over 5 years ago. And as such Tom Tugendhat going for the adjusted Oliver Twist quote which was “Can I have some more please?” Doesn’t really hold water or slice the cabbage. It is reality in a nasty setting. It is the consequence of Wall Street and friends pushing hardship forward and now it is due harder choices will be made, but at this time these Wall Street friends are nowhere to be found and it comes down to Wall Street and its administration to figure it out and the Trump administration can no longer cry wolf (make China the nasty one). These administrations are in a deeper setting and are willing to give China a go, which will be good news for Tencent and Huawei in the first instance and first degree. Tencent will personally aid my need for coins and selling my idea, but that is not the issue now.

And whilst the article ends with “Liberal Democrat deputy leader and Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper urged the chancellor to return to the UK “to urgently address the ongoing crisis in the markets and announce a serious plan for growth”.” I wonder if the BBC relied on “Cooper urged the chancellor to return to the UK” instead of “Cooper urged the chancellor to return to the UK before the China vote is in”, there is of course the setting that this is not the case. I do not know Daisy Cooper, merely to a minimal degree. Yet at present, she has more in her stride than Australian labor PM Anthony Albanese. Yet for me the real ‘victory’ was that I optionally saw the backlash from President elect Donal Trump correctly, at least in part. And that days before the BBC gave me the rundown. So will the commonwealth unite with China? It is too early to say, but the start is here and now America starts its new administration with serious other problems. You see the group five eyes (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and America) is nice but as it seemingly goes this setting could be 4 members short in the near future and that creates a new setting. The CIA will lose eyes in several places and they will not have the budget to rectify that any way soon (they lack other resources too). Still happy about the 51st state ‘joke’? We have asian food centers all over the commonwealth and these people feel happily fed and don’t see China as a threat. I am not saying they aren’t a threat, as I see it, merely America and its devoted fans do. The problem is that the economic hardships are real and the people are willing to give China a chance. It isn’t right or wrong. It merely is and it is a direct consequence of games that Wall Street enabled, as they disregarded a long term policy. It is the direct consequence of what I call short term Excel policies (not blaming Microsoft in this case).

We can postulate all we want, but it depends on what Chancellor Rachel Reeves brings back to Number 10 and parliament. As I personally see it, President Xi (with aid from He Lifeng) gets the option to make a clean sweep into the hardship that America is ignoring for itself and with the settings as I observed it on defense spending in several places China can put pressure on America to a much larger degree. Life can throw us the strangest curveballs.

So enjoy the day and remember that in China, they will say “我可以再多吃一點嗎？”

Have a lovely day, only 120 minutes until breakfast for me.

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January 9, 2025 · 21:53

Is it semantics?

There is a question that the entire ‘annexation’ of Canada brings to light. Is it the setting of an unintelligent person to employ humor (I try to steer clear of the word stupid) or is there a larger setting? So what is the actual meaning of this?

The previous story gave you part of that, but CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-absorb-canada-response-1.7426177) gives us (optionally) more. It starts with ‘No longer a joke: Ministers say Trump’s threats to absorb Canada need to be taken seriously’ where we are confronted with “Trump said Tuesday he’d be willing to use ‘economic force’ to join countries”, we saw that and as such it would not be enough. 

But there is more, the setting of “Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Wednesday that U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s assertions that Canada should become the 51st state should be taken seriously, after he initially dismissed them as a joke. “The joke is over,” LeBlanc told reporters in French. “The president and his allies continue to repeat this — we know it’s not going anywhere — but the fact that he’s repeating it, it’s not very constructive.”” You see, this is true. But as we have surmised several times in the past, there is a need for any politician to seek the limelight (not that this is always wrong). As such we are given and shown that Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Immigration Minister Marc Miller and International Trade Minister Mary Ng all have their say. Yet, they all miss a few corners. You see we are overwhelmingly confronted with ‘influencers’ all seeking limelight and they ‘know’ that outbursts of Donald Trump give them the emotional rhetoric to flame settings. Now they all get the chance to drill into 40 million Canadians, all eager to grow their ‘momentum’ that is the lose for to a lot of this. And it is a lot like the setting in the Patriot (that movie with Mel Gibson). Why swap 1 political party 5800 kilometers away when you could have 58 political players 100 kilometers away? That would make no sense and Canadians need to be aware of this. What is the optional stage oil that people like Donald Trump and Kevon O’Leary (a Canadian no less) will opt for the direct marketing of 40 million Canadians to get the upper hand. Whatever O’Leary claims, he will be in it for the money. He wants to ‘secure’ his 400 million and preferably add some (hundreds of) millions to it and as I see it, anyway will do. The man is the direct opposite of Ryan Reynolds. He is in it for his money in his own way, but a lot more intelligent. Any party he engaged with enriched him and he enriched them by a lot. And there is a social/national pride in his achievements. That is the proper way enterprising and capitalism needs to work. I wonder why no one sees that. 

The larger issue is not that, it is the setting what the Commonwealth needs to do. At some point it is forced to bulk up their borders and that is the strapping setting. The UK, Australia and New Zealand will be forced to take a stance. Optionally not New Zealand, their Sopwith Camels don’t have the range to fly to the US. And I don’t think that they have an operational Army either, good enough for humanitarian jobs and rescue operations, but actual war on another shore? I doubt that.

So the Commonwealth could start crying foul and invite China to become the aid party of choice. China will love that, now it gets army and navy posts right at the front door of America. And now we get a new Cuban missile crises, but one at the front door of Los Angeles, Hollywood (the burning one), Chicago, New York and Washington DC. Yes, a real good sense of humor, mr. President elect. And let the influencers get the blame, it was his posts (allegedly) that is setting the flames sprawling and unlike the ones in California, these flames will have a national impact. Americans asked for this, they elected the man. So what comes out is on their own heads. As a commonwealthian I share the feelings of Justin Trudeau who said on January 7th (source: CBC) ‘Trudeau says ‘not a snowball’s chance in hell’ Canada joins U.S.’ And as that setting evolves I wonder if I should swap my optional future in Toronto with a more secure lifestyle in Abu Dhabi. The idea of having an apartment next to a mall (Yas Mall) and 4 tourist attraction becomes highly appealing especially if the Harry Potter universe is added in 2025 to the Warner Brothers Abu Dhabi park. Perhaps IBM needs IBM Statistics support staff in Abu Dhabi. With a (delusional) sign on bonus of $15 million I’ll be game to witch Australia for the United Arab Emirates. Still willing to move to Toronto (for the same amount mr Ellison), so what are my options? Unless something is done with the President elect, I merely see the UAE as an option. Consider that, that people are willing to leave Canada and the beauty it holds for a different kind of beauty (UAE, Abu Dhabi). And in the end it will merely delay the bankruptcy by 5 years, which gets Trump out of deep water and after that America will drag Canada into the same mess it created for itself, well done Wall Street.

All that for a sense of delusional humor? I will let you decide, yet consider that America opened to door to grow China in near exponential size, because they could end up with options in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. As Elon Musk has shifted his interest into ousting Keir Starmer from the post of PM of the United Kingdom (which is not the worst idea), however whatever he wants to replace him with will be a person HE can control and that is not on with me.

The last country will open doors all over Europe. How is the expensionarlism of Trump hitting you now? On the upside, these four nations will see a larger investment from China in their regions. Not the best option, but taking in account what America had in mind a optional preferable one.

Have an optional great day.

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January 9, 2025 · 02:13

When insanity is like desperation

There is always the setting of misjudging ones opponent. That happens of course, but what happens when the opponent is an ally? That is the premise of the BBC article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg9gvg3452o) where we are given ‘Europe will not allow attacks, says France, after Trump Greenland threat’. This is not the first setting. It started with the setting that America (President-elect Trump) stated that it was a great idea if Canada became the 51st state of America and we see the news handing us the setting that Kevin O’Leary gives us that it was a great idea if that would happen. Now at that point I had two issues. The first is that O’leary is a Canadian, and no less a multi millionaire to the amount of somewhere in the near half a billion range. He is known to be clever so my hairs in the back of my went up. You see, I am a commonwealthian and handing over land that is ‘ours’ to America is a big no no in my book. 

The issue however went from bad to worse. We now see that Trump has his eyes set on Greenland and the lands around the Panama Canal. As such I am in doubt of what s going on. I refuse to believe that it is the simple ramblings of a madman. I understand that he is merely throwing ideas around, but we are given (in that story) “Asked if he would rule out using military or economic force in order to take over Greenland or the Panama Canal, Trump said: “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two. “But I can say this, we need them for economic security.”” And then an idea hit me in the head (it did hurt). So what if America is so bankrupt that America (President-elect Trump) sees that this could be the final presidency of the United States? There is a lose thought that there is correlation between ‘expansion need’ and economic security. And America has $36.22 trillion debt. Even at a mere 2% that amounts to $722 billion in annual interest (the interest is higher than 2%) and that is the kind of anchor that ends any economy. To set this into other sights, if Greenland and Canada become part of the United States, the look and feel of debt goes down, or in better words, 40 million more taxpayers and the resources of Canada (and Greenland) become American resources. I just bet that Kevin O’Leary has his ideas on how to exploit that setting, no sharks required. 

There is every chance that Trump will voice in two weeks that he was just throwing ideas around, but that is not a given. Now that he realizes that the EU will go to war and the UK, NewZealand and Australia will stand next to the leader of the Canada against Trump that setting becomes dodgy to say the least. We will see an entirely new setting. And in that setting China will see it’s own needed promise of gaining economic strength on the global stage. So as we are given “Trump suggested the island was crucial to military efforts to track Chinese and Russian ships, which he said are “all over the place”.” He seemingly forgets that in that instance Europe will invite China for ‘support’ and in that setting the US military will have to vacate all European base settings. The problem is that this could invite Russia to expand to the west, unless China has already been invited and that is a new stage of poker for territory. Is that what will happen? I honestly don’t know. Yet, we also never saw the setting that America would seek expansion into their north and west, so all bets are off as I see it. 

How this plays out is anyones guess and for the most of it all, many see President elect Trump as a clown, so we tend to downplay his rhetoric, but in seriousness, he might be pushed due to the debts and the fact that America has close to no way of paying that debt in the coming three years. So in his presidency America is highly likely to go bankrupt. As I personally see it, that is good news for me, because when that hits all IP will gain value, especially if it is IP outside of America. Still, we need to see what the American administration does when the new president is in office. As I see how this evolves people like Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are giving their view on the ramblings of a elected president and that spells bad news for America. The question becomes how will China react? In other news, there is an upside for Saudi Arabia, as it seemingly is Lockheed Martin would come for sale and Saudi Arabia is willing to pay top dollar, as such the question becomes ‘Did James D. Taiclet consider relocating to Riyadh?’ Not the weirdest question to throw into the rink.

We will know within two weeks whether we will get some ‘Just kidding’ news article or whether we see countries in Europe sharpen their axes to start another conflict. 

Have a great day.

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January 8, 2025 · 00:57

Dens, first name Evie

That is the setting where I am. It was the BBC that gave me (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9q78wn9g8zo) where we see ‘US designates Tencent a Chinese military company’ and my first question is “By what evidence?” You see, we can go back to the European tour by Colin Powell, armed with a silver briefcase where he travelled around Europe like a rockstar and that is how we got into the Iraqi war. They had graphics (probably a powerpoint presentation). Then we got the accusations against Huawei. We never got to see any evidence and as I saw it America was afraid to lose the 5G war and they basically still did. Now we get that Tencent is on route to basically throw Microsoft in the dirt and now they are a military complex? To do what? Unite gamers all over the world? And what evidence do we get? The simplistic line “including gaming and social media giant Tencent” Where is the evidence? Then we are given “The list serves as a warning to American companies and organisations about the risks of doing business with Chinese entities. While inclusion does not mean an immediate ban, it can add pressure on the US Treasury Department to sanction the firms.” Funny, Tencent was offered my gaming solution that would bring them 6 billion a year in phase one, after that the numbers become interesting. You see, Amazon had no interest (they never contacted me) and as such the Amazon Luna seems to be out of consideration, Google placed themself outside the scope as they deleted the Google Stadia and I will not let Microsoft near any of my IP (as I personally see them, they are losers that rely on the gods of mediocrity) which leaves Tencent. As I see it, the first stage would get them a nominal annual revenue of up to 6 billion, which is set to 50,000,000 consoles. After that with up to 200 million consoles the ride becomes exciting. I offered it also to Saudi Arabia and Kingdom Holding as they have larger concerns in this and There is a hidden pleasure in me to see Saudi Arabia end up above Microsoft, they are that irrelevant to me. It would also impact Facebook (Meta) revenue, but I cannot say to what extent (lack of numbers and achievable timeline)

A simple setting I saw 3 years ago and no one seemingly caught on. 

As such we see all kinds of wannabe players, but there is no evidence, at least it is not clearly given. And when we get to “In response to the latest announcement Tencent, which owns the messaging app WeChat, said its inclusion on the list was “clearly a mistake.” “We are not a military company or supplier. Unlike sanctions or export controls, this listing has no impact on our business,” a spokesperson for the company told the BBC.” Some might catch on that America is merely trying to to prevent Microsoft to go several steps closer to bankruptcy. So they are setting (in my personal believe) the status for Europe to shun Chinese firms. Yet the larger setting is that they are merely setting up the shop for Tencent to become close to an Arabic and Asian provider to entertainment. So in 2-3 years when Tencent, TikTok and Huawei grow beyond their borders we will see the scared Europeans go overboard and let them into their areas and as I see it Tencent is on the brink of shutting Microsoft out of a population of close to 3 billion people (Asia, India, Arabian nations, Indonesia and Bangladesh) and as such as they get the people on their side Europe with over half a billion people will be joining them as well. Microsoft might be a 3 trillion company but I reckon that in a year with failure after failure, their vaults and coffers will look rather slim-lined. 

And for the people thinking I am bluffing, well, you are allowed to think that, but consider a small setting. Microsoft lost to Nintendo and Sony and all we get all the junk news like that they are working on a handheld computer. The problem is that Nintendo is already there and Tencent is coming as well (exact time unknown to me). So Microsoft is already in third place and it will get worse from there, because you need people in the end and they are somewhere else and now that they are ‘advocating’ cloud gaming with TV’s we need to realise that this require too much bandwidth, as such that ship is sailing fast towards the abyss of failure (as I personally see it). Then we get their Surface pro and the short and sweet is that it is nowhere as useful as what Apple has. I see that as another failure. You see in the 11 years that contraption was around, it did not push Apple from the winning pedestal. No matter how much they spin the story. And when you consider that gaming and tablet as well as the fact that Blizzard and Bethesda were bought for 75 billion. So how much did they make? Nowhere near that much and Starfield was a bust from the beginning. Billions in the Surface pro and that is not paying off either. So how many failures can they survive? And now Tencent is entering gaming with the option to create serious waves. It is the impact of innovation. As I see it, spin gets you nowhere and now the new spin for players like Microsoft is to let the administration deal with the Chinese and with the return president elect Trump Microsoft is cheering as President elect Trump is anti-Chinese. But the trouble isn’t what they have. It is that over 4 billion do not see America as the centre of the universe. Which gives Tencent an option and when (speculative) Tencent will adhere to the stage of Harmony OS, the setting for Microsoft and Google goes down a mot more. You see HarmonyOS joined iOS and Android on the world stage. Yes, it is a mere third place, but every step they make is one that Apple and Google lose and Google has more problems because of the stupidity of the American legal system. They are just slicing pieces of the revenue pie for Huawei to take a bite from and as Huawei grows Google and Apple will lose some market share. And as Huawei and Tencent connect they will both grow stronger. How strong? That is not easy to say, but the small beginning will endure over time and America pushed for this and now it is too late. As the market changes Huawei and Tencent will robustly grow to some effect. Now we get the ‘accusation’ that Tencent is part of the Chinese military companies, which is formally known as the Section 1260H. And that is a nice game, but the others (pretty much all others) want to see evidence as Europe and the Commonwealth will demand evidence. They are seeing what revenue these two players bring and Microsoft merely brought failure after failure. As I see it innovation talks and failure walks alone and when someone will consider the turncoat metrics of Microsoft trying to get whatever they can as their console and tablet fails to do. As for Azure? It is lagging behind AWS (Amazon) by 50%, so don’t get your hope up. Another failure as I see it. So how much revenue is lost over these three parts only? So as the secretary of the Pentagon is not too busy (Miss E Dens) we would like to see the evidence that Tencent is part of the Chinese military. I don’t say it is not, I merely want to see evidence for a change (we never saw the WMD evidence, or the Huawei evidence), just for argument sake.

Have a great day, my Wednesday started 3000 seconds ago.

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December 29, 2024 · 22:00

At the close of a year

This might be the last article this year (no promises). I have been haunted by a weird dream, but that is not what this is about. You see, the army recognition group gave us yesterday (at https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2024/saudi-arabia-eyes-up-to-100-turkish-kaan-fighter-jets-as-us-made-f-35-remains-inaccessible) ‘Saudi Arabia eyes up to 100 Turkish Kaan fighter jets as US-made F-35 remains inaccessible.’ I know nothing of this plane, so I am not going in that direction. The setting that the US set the inability of the F35 being handed to Saudi hands is worthy of responding to. You see, the pricing of the F35 is set to “$102.1 million for the F-35C.” This means that America lifted their nose at 10 – 25 billion of hard needed income. The planes, the support and engineering surplus and a few other options. I expected that China would ‘swoop’ in to get that money. It is decently plausible that their were more reasons. I am merely setting that this could also mean the end of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), you see, airbases on foreign ground are meant for allies and America has priced them out of that corner. As I see it Anthony Blinken has done away with that option. You see, only two months ago we got “US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday sought to make headway with Saudi Arabia on” whatever ‘his’ administration is ‘worried’ about. You need to have an ally for that and the fact that the F35 has been ‘unavailable’ since 2012. That is over 12 years, so as the F35 faces being optionally phased out by 2030, they lost one of their biggest customers and provisional ally in the Arabic peninsula as I personally see it. 

And America? Well, who needs an ally who is never there? That is the short and sweet part of this all and for Turkey this might be the sweet deal of the century. At some point the UAE and Egypt will also require 5th gen stealth fighters. This will make it harder for America and China to get traction. I never expected that Turkey was on that level, but that shows you what I know of this field.

And this is not the first time America, Europe and China enter behind the fishnet only to end up with nothing. This potential purchase follows Saudi Arabia’s $3.1 billion agreement with Türkiye in 2023 for the acquisition of 60 Baykar AKINCI unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), set for delivery in 2025 and 2026.

So, when was the last time major governments walked away from a potential 15 billion deal? America might shout tariffs and the upcoming said expansion with their 51st state (Canada), but they forget that Canada is part of a Commonwealth and in their views (the Commonwealth) it amounts to a direct assault on the Commonwealth. So when was the last time a nation was engaged with the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, India, South Africa and at least two dozen more. If they reject all imports from America, the American economy goes the way of the dodo a lot faster than the dodo did. For China it sounds like a prolonged Christmas. You see, if they get traction with the Commonwealth, a desire they never thought realistic, but going after their largest member Canada might set that deal to nominal.

That as the rejection of billions set a dangerous premise for America and Saudi Arabia can play hard to get in that instance. So the next threat by the president elect Trump will set a minefield around (presumed) Marco Rubio making his job next to impossible. 

But we will see what will happen. In the meantime we should send a congratulatory card to Turkey for this achievement.

And of course the card for the next tenant of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), but that is likely to follow in 2025/2026. As I see it, the next two years are close to essential for the next administration to avoid a governmental garage sale. But what do I know?

Still, in retrospect the dream still bugs me. The dream was a job at ADNOC, in Abu Dhabi. They had an AS400 running SPSS 6.1.3 and it had been gathering dust. It wasn’t working and the people at IBM said it was the fault of ADNOC. In the dream I merely had to remove 2 lines (reading ASCII data), two variables Alphanumeric were making a mess of things and removing the two lines solved 96% of the issue. 96% was fixed in the first hour (well for one job). I needed two additional hours to align the alphanumeric fields. And that took two hours to work out, I used Excel for that (the one Microsoft program Microsoft got right). And with that the first month was back on track. A weird setting, as I know next to nothing of ADNOC, I know that they are in oil, and that is all. I haven’t thought of that program in over 2 decades, so what gives? Well, in part technical support at SPSS was perhaps one of the most fulfilling jobs. But the powers that be didn’t see me as IBM material. O well, such is life. 

Time to head to the end of the year and see what 2025 will bring. 

Have a great day and the optional conclusion of a great year.

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December 12, 2024 · 17:44

Sheep to the slaughter

There was a view, I agreed but not for the same reasons. I agree that Brexit was needed but for different reasons. You see, I saw the EU corruption for what it was. A setting where banks had their own little club, the club of 22. And there we saw Mario Draghi was a welcomed sight. I was hesitant to see it for good. Even as Mark Carney had its own ideas, he was right. Brexit was the way and the way was going to be hard. Now we see the Guardian embraces the story ‘Majority of Brexit voters ‘would accept free movement’ to access single market’, the carrot for idiots. There was no free movement, there was merely what others would allow us to do and that free movement comes at a price. So as we are given “A majority of Britons who voted to leave the EU would now accept a return to free movement in exchange for access to the single market, according to a cross-Europe study that also found a reciprocal desire in member states for closer links with the UK.” Yes but at a price. Now that the ‘settings’ are reset, the stupidity of the EU opens up again. The EU was on the verge of collapse as they are in denial of the consequences. You see we are given “85% of the EU’s debt has been incurred since 2020” but the story was worse, much worse. The debt of the EU has been calculated at €14,300,832,000,000 it was that bad (still is), the breaking through Brexit made sure that the UK was no longer held to account to that debt. Now that the trolls and corrupt ‘friends’ of the Euro got their stories to account going on since 31 January 2020 they finally won and the reset is about to take place (the fact that the idiot Keir Starmer assisted in the matter was a great help to the EU). What is the matter? Well in part they are right, the UK benefits from the strength of the EU matters on one side, the opposing setting is also true. A family with 27 family members and I reckon that 6 or them are nothing less than a newer version of the village idiot. They have a voice, but they also were chomping at the bit to get access to the credit card of the EU and that is not a good thing. The second that the banks come in, the setting will be final. The Greeks are loving this. There is every chance that the Greeks will blow out their debt again. The reason is simple, they don’t have what it takes and they take what everyone else has. That was an I personally think is the remaining setting. They are not alone, but they were the most visible one in 2019. Now that stage will erupt again. The EU doesn’t have the checks and balances it needs to stop that level of idiocy. 

We are also given “The report found about half of Britons believed greater engagement with the EU was the best way to bolster the UK economy (50%), strengthen security (53%), effectively manage migration (58%), tackle climate change (48%), allow Ukraine to stand up to Russia (48%), and for Britain to stand up to the US (46%) and China (49%).” My issue becomes. What data? How was the data collected? When we see ‘effectively manage migration (58%)’ how many want to push their migration numbers to UK? How many are are anti China minded? As we are given ‘for Britain to stand up to China (49%)’, are they sure they meant ‘for Britain to stand up for China’ and in all this the new markers are presented and not given towards the Middle East. That becomes a nastier kettle of fish. In the end, when the tally is shaped there will be anger towards the media for not letting us know the truth. I reckon that at some point media moguls will go the way of Brian Thompson but now with a mere rope and a tree as support for their distrust of the media. We are almost at that tipping point and reversing Brexit will give us the stage in 12 months or less. At that point the finger pointing starts and the media will lose whatever support they had. As I personally see it, the largest issue is seen in the last paragraph. With: “The Brexit-era divisions have faded and both European and British citizens realise that they need each other to get safer. Governments now need to catch up with public opinion and offer an ambitious reset.” One side is the media “British citizens realise that they need each other to get safer” and this is largely because a false picture was given for years and as this is shown to be wrong, the people will go for the throat of the media. This is no longer the 90’s where the media had overwhelming powers. Now they are held to account and optionally with their lives. As for the ‘ambitious reset’ this is largely enabled by banks and their need for the reset of their credit cards. What comes next will be the stuff of nightmares. It won’t happen directly, it will be a soft landing, like landing in a pool of molten lead. Within a year the UK will get their new demands handed to them and that will be the game, the EU (Germany) will win and suddenly they will they will side with Russian demands. As such the Ukraine will suffer and the EU will suffer too. The Americans will hand Russia through the Republican Party. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to say the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine (42% vs. 13%) (source: Pew research Centre). And when that comes to blow, America will distance from the EU. It was too hard and they have too little cash left. A setting that was always come to pass. As such the anti-China sentiment was in favour of America, as they pushed their goods. So how long do you think that setting will last? In all this, the solution to embrace the Middle East and China was a larger option then anyone thinks. It gave the EU breathing space against Russia. Now the UK is in the mix and the only option (I believe they have) is to open the door to BRICS and China. It don’t think it is a good option, but it is better to see that then to see the new maps of 2040’s stating Netherlands Oblast (or more likely Holland Oblast). That danger is more and more real as America lets the Republican setting of “U.S. support for Ukraine” getting smothered to death.

As I personally see it, Europeans are leading themselves as lambs to the slaughter. What a disgusting end to the foundry of civilisation (1095 – 2040). 

Could I be wrong? I hope I am, but the wrong people got to speak at media events and I am keeping a list of media people who are leading the run towards the gallows. Like the Dutch writer Marga Minco who wrote Bitter herbs (1957). As the character in that book who through the personal inside of people decided who was handed to the devils and who went the way of angels. I reckon that not many media people are going the way of angels. And those howling that they merely viewed that the people had a right to know will see the digital age as the one serving them, not the people. There needs to be a tally, especially of the media.

Have a great day and if you are with the media, the gallows are down the lane to the left, overlooking the emptiness of the fields of bankruptcy.

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December 10, 2024 · 19:46

The revolving question

That is at times in almost everything the setting. We might all go nuts about ‘mismanaging’ settings and I am to a certain degree not impervious to that setting. But after writing ‘The losing bet’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/12/08/the-losing-bet/) I started to mull things over. You see, people like Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan are not stupid. But there is a dangerous calm as people are given the questions and are given ‘a kind of answer’ and Microsoft is massively adapt in setting the stage to THEIR advantage and I suddenly realised a simpler setting. When was the question asked of Microsoft ‘What is AI?’ And ‘What is the premise of what you call AI?’ With ‘What is the data setting of AI?’ In this I reckon that some eyes will open. We see all settings of Ai mentioned, but the clear definition and a comparison to the setting that Alan Turing gave us 1950, moreover together with John McCarthy gave us the Turing test. So how far did people dig into this part of the equation? You might disagree with me on my stance of AI and that is okay. We do not all see eye to eye on a whole range of matters. But in this, in a Texas Hold’em style of business poker it becomes increasingly important to set the stage of definitions and hold them up to the light. In that game Microsoft doesn’t get to spin out of the stage ad blame it all on miscommunication. In that stage Microsoft has to hide into the margins or come out into the light. The second stage is likely and very pleasing to my ego.

You see, when people are part of a $1.5 billion investment there are people who are not pleased with that fact and they will nitpick any document handed to them. One of the oldest settings was ‘What are the definitions?’ Was in older days the way to see what players were up to and that stage got a little lost in populism and ‘fast’ presentations appeasing to the spending player. You might think that it is Microsoft paying, but you would be wrong. The UAE and G42 are investing time and resources to make it all work and I foresee that players like Microsoft (not just them) are trying to play fast and loose with definitions so that they can bank the first agreements and then turn back and hide behind ‘miscommunications’ after that fact. Which is why we have the clear setting of definitions. As such making all players answer that question gives a first setting. You see, there is no AI at present and that comes out at that very start. And no matter how clever LLM’s and Deeper Machine Learning is, the setting becomes data and who is responsible of that data. Now we get different players out and in the full-grown light. People like Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan will then immediately see who is endangering the security of the UAE and they have no sense of humour at that point. No matter how some see the ‘opportunity’ of a life time, the moment the national pride comes into view of danger, the UAE will demand clarity on matters and I reckon some will ‘trivialise’ matters and when you ‘invest’ $1.5 billion there is an issue with trivialisation (which is why I referred to a Texas Hold’em style). Now some will say that I am bluffing and I want to be ‘inserted’ as a possible player. You would be wrong. I do not want to be linked to a player like Microsoft in any way. Google, Amazon, Adobe, IBM and Oracle definitely, Microsoft not at all. As such I am not anti-American (a claim that was thrown at me several times in the past). I am anti-stupid (mostly) and when you start trivialising $1.5 billion I see you as stupid, and no matter what I think of Microsoft, they are not overly stupid. In some things yes, in other things (like playing black letter law stages) not that much. 

But all that becomes moot when some players release the definition lists to all we will see how silly my thoughts are, because these definitions go through the entire project and there is no way they get changed unless all parties openly agree. Oh and before you think that this is a ploy. You might be right. You see, I do not know where China is at present ad I would live to find out. So what is better then Microsoft setting the entire definition list to paper and release it all? I reckon we will see a Chinese response less then 48 hours alter. 

The revolving question is an almost needed stage because definitions on paper is what matters, if it isn’t written down it doesn’t exist. That has been a matter long before the Prince by Niccolò Machiavelli. I reckon it goes back to the days of Gaius Julius Caesar Augustus (63BC-14). So this setting was known for 2000 years and with all the turbo presentations and innuendo I get the feeling it got lost in the woodwork of it all. As such I thought it was a great idea to remind people of that. 

Silly me, have a great day.

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December 8, 2024 · 22:46

The losing bet

That happens, we make bets. We all do in one way or another. Some merely hurt our pride and/or our ego. Some deals hurt others and there are other settings, too many to mention. But Reuters alerted me three hours ago on a deal that will have a lot of repercussions. The article ‘US clears export of advanced AI chips to UAE under Microsoft deal, Axios says’ (at https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/advanced-ai-chips-cleared-export-uae-under-microsoft-deal-axios-reports-2024-12-07/) is one that has a few more repercussions than you imagined it had. The global loser (Microsoft) has set up a setting where we see “The U.S. government has approved the export of advanced artificial intelligence chips to a Microsoft-operated facility in the United Arab Emirates as part of the company’s highly-scrutinised partnership with Emirati AI firm G42, Axios reported on Saturday, citing two people familiar with the deal.” Microsoft is as desperate as I think they are with this deal. They probably pushed the anti-China agenda and made mention of the $1.5 billion dollar investment deal. And as we are given “The deal, however, was scrutinised after U.S. lawmakers raised concerns G42 could transfer powerful U.S. AI technology to China. They asked for a U.S. assessment of G42’s ties to the Chinese Communist Party, military and government before the Microsoft deal advances.” And we are also given “The approved export license requires Microsoft to prevent access to its facility in the UAE by personnel who are from nations under U.S. arms embargoes or who are on the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security’s Entity List, the Axios report said.” In this I have a few issues.

In the first there is no AI, not yet anyway as such the investment is going the way like water under a bridge. Microsoft knows this as such they are betting big and they have the US government backing them. In the worst case it will be the US government putting up the $1.5 billion themselves and with the anti-China sentiment that is a likely result from this.

In the second the setting that Microsoft is banking on is a loop setting with multiple exists. Yesterday the Financial Times informed us ‘OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching ‘AGI’ clause with Microsoft’ (at https://www.ft.com/content/2c14b89c-f363-4c2a-9dfc-13023b6bce65) the events are piling up and as I see it Microsoft is on the edge if desperation. You see, it all hangs on the simplest setting that there is no AI (not yet at least). What we have is a setting with LLM’s and Deeper Machine Learning and it is clever and it is a ‘optional’ wholesome solution to a lot of paths. But it is no Artificial Intelligence. You see, as all the laws are part of ethics and ‘AI’ people look around and think that there is ‘awareness’ of solutions. There are not. It is all data managed, a somewhat clever solution to people seeking an aware-like solution in data and some kind of knowledge discovery mode. It all could be clever, but it is still no AI and at some point certain people will dig it out and I reckon the UAE will be ahead of it all. Microsoft and its Ferengi approach of ‘When you get their money you never give it back’ comes with nice loopholes. You think that Microsoft made the ‘investment’ now here is the cracker. There is nothing stopping Microsoft of putting it in a ‘bad bank’ approach and make it all tax deductible and then some. And when the “artificial general intelligence” (AGI) clause is dropped there will be all kinds of attention from all over the place and no one is looking at the details of whatever they consider AI and what Alan Turing clearly considered to be AI. When the people that matter start looking and digging the days of Microsoft will be numbered. Another bubble game created and now that they have ‘enticed’ the wrong kind of people they will want their pound of dollars. And as we are given “The Biden administration in October required the makers of the largest AI systems to share details about them with the U.S. government. G42 earlier this year said it was actively working with U.S. partners and the UAE’s government to comply with AI development and deployment standards, amid concerns about its ties to China.” And in that setting Microsoft decided to be the governmental bitch to say the least. And all these media moguls are so loosely playing along and what will happen when someone digs into this. They will play dumb and say “We didn’t comprehend the technology” and it wasn’t hard. I saw it months ago, if not nearly almost two years ago. And the media was stupid? No, the media goes the way of the digital dollar, the way of the emotional flame. So as the field opens, we see all kinds of turmoil with Microsoft claiming to be the ‘saviour’ all nice and kind (of a sort), but when you look at the setting, it is my personal speculated feeling that Microsoft wouldn’t have made this move unless they had very little moves left. And in this setting the one player is forgotten. China, how far along are their ‘designs’? And in all this what are their plans? We seem to be given the setting that it is all American, but as the media cannot be trusted what is the ACTUAL setting? I have no clue, but in a world this interactive, China cannot be far away. 

And if there are people who disagree, that is fair, but the actual setting is largely unknown. So when we get to the last paragraph which gives us “Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Company, the UAE’s ruling family and U.S. private equity firm Silver Lake hold stakes in G42. The company’s chairman, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, is the UAE’s national security advisor and the brother of the UAE’s president.” Consider this small fact. Microsoft seems to be ‘investing’ all whilst the anti-China rhetoric is given. Do you think that anyone who is the National Security Advisor (of the UAE) hasn’t seen through a lot of this? So what was the plan from Microsoft? I am at a loss, but with the AI setting the way it actually is none of this makes sense. Do they really believe that Microsoft is any kind of solution in this setting? Simply look at the accusation that Microsoft has also been criticised for the perceived declining quality and reliability of its software. That is your partner in so-called AI? Just a thought to consider.

Well, you all have a lovely Sunday. My Monday is a mere 80 minutes away.

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December 5, 2024 · 17:07

The price of debt.

That is what I am looking at, the price of debt. You see, they are all hailing that the US economy is strong. One voice (Goldman Sachs), the one that lost it all in 2007 told the world that America would be strong at 2.5% (somewhere I read it). To all it sounds nice and I like nice, but I also query a system that is to my (non-economic view) is rigged. As we see images all over the place on how good things are supposed to be, consider:

We see the setting as tax collected. For 2023 is was “The US government collected nearly $4.7 trillion in gross taxes during the 2023 fiscal year, which is a 15.5% decrease from 2022. The IRS collected taxes from a variety of sources”, now for some it is a little more then milk money. And that sounds nice, but the other side has “As of October 2024, the United States government’s monthly interest rate on its debt is 3.3%. The average interest rate for 2024 is 3.32%, and the total debt is $35.46 trillion.” Consider the simple setting of 3.32% of $35.46 trillion. This gives us $1,170,180,000,000 dollar annually. Which would be ‘liveable’ were it not for the simple fact that this is ONLY interest. The debt remains. And now we have a problem. You see the interest is is a simple 24.89% of the entire taxable revenue and it was 15.5% less from 2022. Do you now see the problem? 25% of all taxable revenue goes to the banks that carry the debt. The federal government spent $6.75 trillion in FY 2022. This means that they spend over 30% to much, more than they had and if there was no debt we could argue, but at this setting we are faced with the simple fact that $6.75 trillion was spent over an available amount of $3.5 trillion, which is getting worse and worse. As such we could surmise that the debt will increase with a little over 3 trillion over spending over last year alone. As I see it America is done for. And the setting worsens with the optional crushing of Google in 2025 (by breaking up that firm) which give Huawei their first global win. Then the defence industry is losing more and more revenue to China and this sets a larger premise. In that setting we see on one hand “The A&D industry generated $425 billion in economic value, representing 1.6 percent of the 2023 nominal GDP in the U.S.”, yet in this we already seeing revenue shifting to China in this year alone and more revenue goes to Europe. For Saudi Arabia alone this sets the bar at “In 2024, the Saudi Arabian defense budget is worth $71.7 billion and will grow at a CAGR of more than 8% during 2025-2029.” Yet other sources give us that “Saudi Arabia estimates military spending will be 15 percent lower than budgeted this year” as such we could surmise that this implies that Saudi Arabia by itself would spend $10 billion less. Not a biggie you say, but the other side is that China now has a little over 10% on that slice of delicious gunpowder baked pie. Making the loss for America more. As such we see an annual loss of $16 billion in one year alone from one customer. As such, what would be the books on India, Japan, Taiwan, Pakistan and Indonesia? If we see these picture, we see a dangerous escalation towards some fictive nil revenue for America. Fictive because that will never happen, but as the largest players seek economic stability they will spend less and take other jobs ‘in-house’ as the expression goes and America has been too reluctant to appease to that state of mind. And now China will step in to offer just that. As I see it, the question on the dollar setting was wrong. We are given “As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD” against the tariffs threat by president elect Trump. The actual question would become “How long could the US Dollar keep standing?” You see, as the debt becomes a millstone around the neck of the US administration, we need to consider that some nations will seek shelter from the fallout that this setting. In 2017, on March 17th I wrote ‘The finality of French freedom’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/), I set the comparison of the Euro like a barge kept in balance by 4 strong economies. UK, France, Germany and a combined economic anchor. The UK was lost and there was a setting when the French anchor would be lost too. The Euro could not survive a setting with two anchors. A simple equation. Now with the Dollar under attack the Euro could face near certain scuttling. As such the Dollar has an influence there. China seemingly doesn’t care, but the other players who make up a combined anchor might switch sides when they merely look at their own currency. And the debt? They will not care. And as such the dollar faces a lot more than the bully tactics of choice. They will need to up the game by a lot, because when one goes, so will the other and that puts the livelihood and liveability of 784 million people at the markers. 100,000 of them will do fine, but that represents a simple 0.01275348% of people who are likely to make it (outside of the EU and USA), so when were that good statistics? 

The price of debt was always there, but the media has been eager and willing to hide those facts through BS and spin and soon when the people catch on (the other 99.987% of people), the live of playing the media courtesan will be one of the most dangerous of them all. People remember. And it was a simple equation for the media. “You can fool all the people some of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time but you can never fool all of the people all of the time” A simple setting I knew to be true as early as the early 80’s. So how long did they have at most? Some are already falling in the bad light and when the people realise that they weren’t eating potatoes, but turnips. They will become massively enraged. 

A simple setting I have known to become reality at some point. So when are we given the goods? When the interest of the debt of America is shown as a setting against the budget and at this time it is around 25%, Americans need to realise that budgets need to diminish by at least 30%, so at what point do the people realise that the simplicity of the matter is that their money is about to be gone?

Have a lovely day.

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December 4, 2024 · 20:11

The premise was already set

There were some ‘noises’ on what I wrote yesterday and the ‘ludicrous’ setting of Huawei. Well, lets have a look then. The Corner (at https://thecorner.eu/news-spain/the-government-authorizes-saudi-stc-to-purchase-9-9-of-telefonica/117825/) gave us a few days ago ‘Government Authorises Saudi STC To Purchase 9.9% Of Telefonica’ It does not sound like much, but in that setting together with Egypt (as I reported in 2023) the Saudi Telecom Company was already aligning with Egypt and now as it is settling in Spain, Saudi Arabia has now a direct line of communications with the larger part of Europe. They already had Portugal and optionally also have parts of the United Group (details are not known to me).

Then when we see merely a day ago we get (at https://www.rcrwireless.com/20241202/featured/stc-huawei-5g-saudi-arabia) ‘stc, Huawei to enhance 5G connectivity in Saudi Arabia’ and now we get “Stc noted that this solution boosts operational speed by 200% compared to earlier models. Saudi telco stc and Huawei have announced the commercial rollout of SuperLink, a digital solution designed to enhance 5G connectivity across remote areas in Saudi Arabia.” So whilst we get the softer message from Nokia on 5G and we should forget 5G, because their 6G will be da bomb (slight personal tweaking). Yes, always look at the horizon whilst Huawei is upgrading 5G to something that resembles 5G+. Another fine mess the makers of yesterday’s technology bring us. There is however no timeline for 6G and whilst we hear all the wild stories, I have to argue that the organisations that remained in the dark for the longest of time, now has da bomb? I call that a dead mans bluff. Like what they had done before and nothing came from it. Now that China and Saudi Arabia are setting the new marker we see the setting I warned about in ‘The question remains’ on the 21st of December 2022, two years ago I warned of this setting and Now suddenly we get the Nokia news? (OK it has been out for some time), but we haven’t seen anything out in the open with tests and so forth. In that same time Huawei set the proof all over the place and with HarmonyOS they can go to town, especially if Google is forced to break itself up. And as others are forcing Huawei out, we merely see other telecom companies taking the Huawei lead and offering it to customers. We can see all the ‘bigger’ telecom brands heeding the words from the US and so far it lacked any evidence. New the stage will be set that Saudi Arabia could offer a cheaper solution to people in Europe, the Middle East and Asia a solution with Huawei. Now, we get the setting that the larger Telecom companies will have to compete for the same customers. And in that setting 33 million in Saudi Arabia, a slice of 115 million in Egypt and slices from Portugal and Spain giving them slices of 60 million people. And that is before we consider the fallout all over Europe. You see, in the end these other players need people to fuel part of their profits. The anti-China rhetoric from Trump with the added anti-Huawei rhetoric will fall flat. In the near future they have the numbers and now others are in trouble. I reckon that soon Saudi Arabia will make a play for other Vodafone areas. I have no idea how far they get, but any Telecom company that starts not making their numbers will jump on that churn bandwagon. All this whilst Huawei is breaking new boundaries. So whilst someone reported the great success Nokia is making others make mention that the new setting is coming in 2027 (a presumptuous setting as I haven’t see the full papers). So what of 2025 and 2026? A two year bluff sounds nice, but Huawei is giving us “Stc noted that this solution boosts operational speed by 200% compared to earlier models and significantly extends 5G reach without requiring extensive infrastructure, making it ideal for connecting remote regions efficiently. The solution also improves deployment efficiency by reducing antenna requirements by 67% compared to traditional single-band parallel link methods, lowering tower rental costs.” A more than normal cost efficient solution and it is being rolled out in Saudi Arabia. I reckon that the UAE will follow soon thereafter and in that setting Egypt, Portugal and Spain are likely next. This gives them slices of a multiple times the Saudi population and in that setting with Egypt in their banner the Saudi 5G solution will turn heads and put the other players to shame. It would be a world first that Saudi solutions are cheaper and outperforming other telecom companies for at least 2 years. And that is until the people figure out that the Nokia solutions becomes too expensive. The rot in an economy also implies that the people need cheaper solutions and Nokia is less likely to deliver at that time. As I see it all Saudi Arabia needs to do is to figure out how to add France and Germany to that pool and the Huawei battle will be decided in favour of Huawei. Oh, and whilst you are brooding on that. Consider “Huawei technology must be removed from the UK’s 5G public networks by the end of 2027 under legal documents handed to broadband and mobile operators today” I have NEVER ever seen ample documentation that Huawei was an actual danger. It was proxy tantrums from an American administration trying to bully others to hate Huawei too. Now that the stage changes and when it does (no if it does), Germany will have to turn the rudder in their decisions. I reckon that France will immediately follow suit (a speculation, I have no evidence). All that and now it comes with a directive from Saudi Arabia, who owns a stake in several telecom corporations all over Europe and Africa.

Do you still think I was wrong (or talking shit). The evidence has been out in the open since 2020. It is the tail-side of having no economy left at present. And as I see it, the telecom companies will go for each others throats and in the meantime the STC will keep on buying stakes in the other companies. So take that setting and introduce some unaffordable 6G future solution from Nokia. Are things adding up yet? And don’t forget, 6G might be actually da bomb but it is well over 2 years away, so how are your finances holding up in 2 years? Mine won’t survive, I reckon a lot of others will have a similar problem soon enough.

This gets me to the final push. It was seen in Satellite Pro Me (at https://satelliteprome.com/news/stcs-job-attachment-program-surges-by-72/) where we see ‘STC’s ‘Job Attachment Program’ surges by 72%’ that is even better then the bulk of telecom companies had 20 years ago. As I see it, Saudi Arabia will need a massive staff expansion and retrenching of current staff as we are given “The programme offers STC employees the opportunity to gain hands-on experience, explore career paths, and develop professional skills.” As I speculate to see it, is that the STC is going places and needs staff to do so. The countries I mentioned will need extensive upgrading and a much better service and call centre setting and that is just for starters. As I see it the STC is the largest Telecom employer before the end of 2025. Oh, and that is before we even see where France and Italy are in that setting. This could be the larger push into Europe and I reckon that this is fight that Huawei is happy to see Saudi Arabia do at present. I hope I haven’t oversimplified it for you too much.

Have a great day and good morning to Vancouver where it is now 01:10.

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