Tag Archives: China

May 21, 2025 · 19:28

What’s in a brand?

That is at times the question. Most of the world was to sink their claws into Saudi Arabia and we see all kinds of settings, some speculative, some going for the worst. The truth is that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is on the rise. Not merely because they are doing well (they really are), but the massive secondary reason is that they are a no-debt zone, just as the UAE is. So as we se that America is $46 trillion in debt, the EU has a debt of 14 trillion euro and Japan has a $9 trillion debt. Yet as the Telegraph a mere three hours ago gave us all ‘‘Worse than Greece’: The debt crisis threatening to blow up the global economy’ (at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/21/trump-sparked-debt-crisis-could-blow-up-global-economy/) the truth is (speculative) that I personal believe that America is in a worse state, even as the America administration is in denial and the media is massively avoiding reporting on it. I personally think that the network of Stake holders is con spiritually involved as well. As I see it (based on the work of Cathryn van Kessel) that ‘(Con)spirituality as a curriculum of immortality’ is set to “If we are listening to marketing hype, it seems that—with enough money—we can live longer, healthier lives. These products, however, are often no more than consumerist swindling steeped in pseudo-science and pseudo-spirituality. When viewed through the lens of terror management theory (TMT), mitigating the harms of (con)spiritual grifts is more than a problem of a lack of scientific literacy, anti-consumer education, and media literacy.” My personal view is set to the premise of “mitigating the harms of (con)spiritual grifts is more than a problem of a lack of scientific literacy, anti-consumer education, and media literacy, it is a (sort of) given setting that the stakeholders are dwindling the settings of parameters and changing the premise of given values, creating confusing hype settings” This is merely a personal view, but it seemingly fits the patterns we see, or tend to recognise.

So as such we see “Because the assets that the country holds are still far more valuable than the debts. All the land, mineral rights, water, etc.” and this shows the pressures to add Greenland and Canada to America, as such they wouldn’t be considered bankrupt. Another version is “Because debt payments are still manageable” but here time is running out, as such the Trump administration is playing the bully card on Canada and Greenland. But here the dance becomes a problem as Canada is not giving in as it is part of the Commonwealth. And that is why Keir Starmer as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is being catered to by the EU as the WU is in a similar predicament and the UK ‘re-joining’ the EU, the EU ends up with a credit card that gets renewed value. But the larger truth is that time for these three are running out and as such they are courtesan themselves to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. And now we see the larger setting that the article ‘Saudi brands reach $116.8 billion in value fueled by energy, banking, and telecoms sectors’ (at https://brandfinance.com/press-releases/saudi-brands-reach-116-8-billion-in-value-fuelled-by-energy-banking-and-telecoms-sectors) gives us, and the values we see are “STC (brand value up 16% to USD16.1 billion)”, it is number two. Number one is Aramco (of course) and that is oil and I didn’t want to ‘taint’ the setting. After that we get “Almarai (brand value up 20% to USD4.7 billion)” but the third one is the kicker “Saudia (brand value up 34% to USD1.1 billion)” and here is the setting of three out of the ten that these are brands that have a 16%, 20% and 34% growth, totally unheard of in western settings and as such everyone wants in. Wall Street pretty much demand these new settings, but this is not on Wall Street, as such several brands (including me) are pretty desperate to get in. And I have made a few unsuccessful moves and I will totally try to do so again and again. I told a previous boss a few years ago that they had to get there now, now the going is good. But alas, it fell on deaf ears and now as brands in the EU, US and Japan are getting desperate we will see a total new stage of in-fighting and spading their opponents. But as they diminish one another, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will get the cream of the crop at a mere 65% of the total value, because the desperate will sucker themselves to get into the game as early as possible, hoping that the going is good early in the game. I get that, I would feel the same way (as a non-captain of industry that I merely my view) and now that China is entering these fields as well, the west is desperate to get in.

And at present we see little to no evidence how three players can have a cumulative debt of $70 trillion dollars. This is $70,000,000,000,000. Did you ever consider that the debt of these three is more than all the gold in the world? How is that possible? Is it because these three have the assets, because the debt is manageable? We think that we can all be a millionaire as long as we can couch up $55,000 in interest every year, but that is a debt without an end date, you pay as long as you live and that is not a realistic setting but these governments are telling you that story with the assistance of stakeholders (who get their own revenue out of that), yet at that point we ned to consider that you are a millionaire at $55,000 plus whatever the stakeholder charges and now it get to be a little iffy (aka yucky). It is a setting that is delusional, as such they all (desperately) need to be part of the Saudi branding, yet as I see it the Saudi’s have another view, you see STC gave us in 2024 “In 2023, we expanded our global footprint even further by acquiring a 9.9% interest in Telefonica and launching TAWAL operations in three European countries. Over the past year, STC Group has focused on diversifying our global offer to connect people across countries and continents.” They gave us that in March 2024, and the sphere of influence of Saudi Arabia is expanding. So whilst by an expected 2029 we might see brand X, but it is fueling STC for a larger and larger slice of the pie. As such it will all be co-owned by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and this is not white washing. It is merely business and these stakeholders will turn to the needs of their own paychecks more and more.

And this is not a dream story, it is not a nightmare story. It is about to become the reality of things and as such our paychecks go in part not to Telefonica, it will go to Tawal and through that to the STC. A simple business setting and for the most the media is will not inform you, it adheres to the needs of shareholders, stake holder and advertisers.

This is the power of branding and whilst we think that Nike, Lululemon and Jaguar are great brands, there is an underlying setting that the cool car is owned by Natarajan Chandrasekaran (chairman and Managing Director) and Saurabh Agrawal (CFO) (to some degree). And now we see the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expanding in all kinds of directions. In this I kinda set that stage in ‘An altering stage’ which I wrote on October 2nd 2023. I used the word ‘kinda’ as the focus was China and I wrote “It is a summary and you should read it. It shows several elements that are taking the world by storm. It is not “As shown in the latest IMF annual review of the country’s economy, progress has been most notably reflected in non-oil growth, which has accelerated since 2021, averaging 4.8 percent in 2022. Despite lower overall growth reflecting additional oil production cuts, non-oil growth will remain close to 5 percent in 2023, spurred by strong domestic demand.” We get the goods here, but it is “The economy’s non-oil growth has been spurred by strong domestic demand, particularly private non-oil investment. Sustaining this performance requires pursuing sound macroeconomic policies and maintaining the reform momentum, irrespective of developments in oil markets.” Even if the stage is not revealed, when combined with other views we see that ‘strong domestic demand’ is merely one string from the harp of economy, the harp of Saudi economy. What matters is that larger streams involving defence, technology, construction, tourism and services are ALL moving towards Chinese shores. We see some of it now, but that list is rapidly expanding and the next US vote is 45 days away with them having to brood on a loss of billions and it will be a lot more than 1 billion.” Which was a slightly different setting than the IMF reported on and I saw that two years ago. It is the story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/10/02/an-altering-stage/) which gives the goods, so consider that I had this at that point, so why didn’t the media see this over the last 17 months? Consider that before you lash out and wonder who you should blame.

Too many of us are kept in the dark and you should wonder why. You see I am not an economist or some savant. Yet I know data and I have parsed data for decades, and I saw a long time ago that the numbers didn’t add up. So wonder how the media could have missed it all. You were merely given slithers of data and until you consider the larger picture (which the bulk of the media will not give you) wonder why and it is not that it was to complex. As I personally consider the setting is that stake holders are part of the deception. Their cheques are too fat, so they like this game how it is played and they have been playing it for years.

Have a great day and remember, don’t trust all you read, verify the data you are given, even my data. I am not telling you to trust my data. If anything I am a little like Fox Mulder (from the X-Files) and trust no one, not even me.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, movies, Politics

Tagged as Almarai, America, Aramco, brand finance, Canada, Cathryn van Kessel, China, Commonwealth, economics, economy, Eu, Fox Mulder, Greenland, IMF, Japan, Keir Starmer, Lululemon, Nike, politics, Saudi Arabia, Saudia, STC, TAWAL, Telefonica, UAE, USA, Wall Street, X-Files

May 20, 2025 · 18:41

The issue that nags

Yup, it happens and that its fine. But to face a bug at the 11:58 on a clock that merely goes to 12 is intensely nagging. There is a setting that we face and it is due to the blundering achievements of Virtuos. Don’t get me wrong, a game the size of Oblivion will always have a few settings that go awry and at that point it is a mere setting of fixing that problem. There is another setting they face and that is the simple fact that testing would have brought it to the attention of the development team. I refuse that the setting was ‘overlooked’, this was blatant stupidity.

To paint you picture at the very end you are to go to Paradise (quest name) and you face a few settings and it is all fine. Even Eldamil, a high elf that will help you to allow you to continue. He even tells you that he is immortal. As such as we get to go further, you will forever face his cadaver down the road to stop you in your track. So, we get essential NPC’s always becoming ‘unconscious’ and NOW we get the dead High Elf? Virtuos, you stupid idiots. Fix this.

It isn’t that I never faced this, well I didn’t on Xbox360 and Playstation 3. But here at twice the price and a 125GB download, I would have expected things to be better and for the most it is, but this stops me from getting the last two achievements and when you are waiting for 23:59:59 midnight celebrations and the clock crashes at 23:59:00 stress levels tend to rise.

So when will we see the fix? I get that they are trying to fix glitches, but to fix this bug that shouldn’t have passed development in the first place is a rather large dum dum setting.

Well, I had to vent this, as it is irritating as hell and it is the second real bug that I get. So overall a true great achievement. Now the option to replay the game (as I had some plans there), or wait until this issue is fixed. The issue of irritating is boggling.

So as we are out on issues, lets face the one we might see as a rather large issue from our assisting sneaky sneaky people at the CIA. This one was brought to my attention with gratitude to the CBC who (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-china-foreign-source-recruitment-1.7531667) give us ‘The CIA is openly calling on Chinese officials to spy for the U.S. Will they listen?’ So what is going on? To be honest I was considering that the CIA was now controlled by the Keystone Cops, with Commissioner Ben Turpin leading the bunch. But then I remembered the first law of warfare and considered there is a lot more going on. So what is the setting? I have no idea, the fact that CBC has this makes me wonder the first law of warfare, but the quote “American spies are saying the quiet part out loud to Chinese officials: Their knowledge of Beijing’s secrets would be welcome in Washington.” So is it really that, or is Washington hungry for Chinese IP? Then there is the subsequent quote “The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has taken to social media to publish slickly produced videos in Mandarin with Chinese subtitles. One features a senior Chinese official making the dramatic decision to contact the U.S. spy agency, seemingly after watching two colleagues be disappeared by the communist government. It’s all part of a bold public pitch by the CIA to lure disaffected bureaucrats to spy for the U.S.” This has me wondering what is going on. Going to social media? I get the mandarin part with subtitles, but this path is in my opinion a game to get stress levels up in the Chinese bureaucracy. And the end quote “lure disaffected bureaucrats to spy for the U.S.” it kinda reminds me of the setting of two hotdog vendors at the Chinese National Stadium (Bird’s Nest) and the National Aquatics Center (Water Cube) proclaiming that a free hotdog and cash is due to any new spy for the CIA. With optional an American passport after 3 years of handing a wealth of knowledge (and IP) to the Americans. So how long will such a person last? That person will face the Ministry of State Security at No. 100 Xiyuan, Haidian, Beijing, China as well as a largely disgruntled Nie Furu, not to mention the colleagues that person have because there is every chance that this person is surrounded by people who does accept and love the Chinese way of life. I am just guessing (read: speculating) that China has plenty of those who embrace the Chinese way of life.

So at this point reading at the CBC that “CIA Director John Ratcliffe has confirmed the videos are “aimed at recruiting Chinese officials to steal secrets.” Links are provided with instructions on how to contact the spy agency in a secure manner”, as such is it really about “recruiting Chinese officials to steal secrets” or is it a hidden ploy for people at Huawei and Tencent to bag IP for America? I reckon that list is a lot bigger than these two, but they are way ahead of the rest of them. So is this an actual spy setting, or is America desperate to get their fingers on IP? I am just asking as the CIA (until recently) was unwilling to hire ‘foreigners’ and as such they got the stage of limelight seeking Bradley Edward Manning (2013) and Edward Snowden (2013). So what is this? I have no idea, but if it was a recruitment setting, it doesn’t seem to be a very intelligent one. As we get the Chinese ‘response’ that “China’s foreign ministry has labelled the initiative “a naked political provocation,” and the country has warned it will take steps to confront “infiltration and sabotage activities” accordingly.” And in this I have no idea what a “a naked political provocation” is, but I guess that nudity is not part of the setting. As my personal setting is that it is a play to see where the stress levels are in China, more important that ‘disgruntled’ people are more likely to be found in American staged businesses in China, as such I would presume that it is about IP and CIA Director John Ratcliffe better realise that this could be turned around. I reckon that with the dismissals all over tech America, China could play the same game. Perhaps my (personal speculated) setting would give the stage that Microsoft with its 280,000 people have a lot more disgruntled people per square inch than most other companies and the dog eat dog mentality show to be the usual operating setting to be more viable to get this settings. At present people are all ‘undone’ by Microsoft, Google, IBM, Amazon and META. So how is that for a shot across the bough John?

Well time for me to crunch down on a plate of pasta. Time to resolve that hunger feeling in me. Have a great day.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Politics

Tagged as Amazon, Beijing, Ben Turpin, Bethesda, Bradley Edward Manning, CBC, China, CIA, Edward Snowden, Eldamil, google, Haidian, Huawei, IBM, John Ratcliffe, Keystone Cops, Meta, Microsoft, Nie Furu, Oblivion, Tencent, Virtuos

May 17, 2025 · 10:09

Death is nigh

Yup, a bit gloomy and perhaps a little too doom speaking, but the news is there and I for one saw this coming a mile away. I mentioned this in the article ‘Utter insanity’ on October 4th 2020 (https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/10/04/utter-insanity/, aka World Animal Day), I mentioned in there the few articles where I also made mention of the US debt, one as early as 2020. So why now?

Well, Reuters (at https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/moodys-downgrades-us-aa1-rating-2025-05-16/) gives us that the credit rating of America has been downgraded. It went from AAA to AA1, this might not be a big thing, but it is, especially in current conditions. You see, Moody also gives us “Moody’s cites rising debt and interest costs” and with that one line the die is cast. Even if it is merely a rise of 0.1%, the implied setting of $36 trillion ($36,000,000,000,000) gives us an additional interest of $36,000,000,000 or $36 billion and the Americans cannot keep their budget as is. So how much larger will this debt become? You can all say that Saudi Arabia is now investing, the AI is coming. But the investment over years will not even pay for the interest increase and at present the top 10 least risky investments hold 10 countries and none of them is America. Makes you think doesn’t it? Then there is the second stage, the stage where some players might think that holding US Bonds might be a tat too risky for them and banker being the cowards that they are learned from the 2008 credit crises and they will be bailing at the first opportunity, especially as the UAE is a much safer and seemingly more rewarding venture at present.

So is death really nigh?
That is a fair question and I am hesitant to answer either way because the reliability of the press is nowhere to be found (perhaps in a dozen places). So they cannot give us the goods and I saw this going as far back as 2011, as such we cannot see any press reasonably credible, especially when they quote market wannabe’s. And this is not on President Trump, although his actions did speed up the process. The World Travel & Tourism Council gave us “THE U.S. IS projected to lose $12.5 billion in international travel spending this year, falling to under $169 billion from $181 billion in 2024”then there are the losses in defense projects, the losses from allies regarding Canada and Greenland and that showed me that America is desperate, and it seems now that the hammer falls down on people realising that I have been right for over a decade, but bury your heads in the sand. All these presented ‘wins’ are a cloth covering the larger losses. The AFR gave us yesterday ‘China slams Trump’s new chip ban, reigniting trade tensions’ with “The US Commerce Department issued guidance this week that Huawei’s Ascend AI semiconductors are subject to export controls anywhere in the world on the basis that they were developed using American technology.” What a way to piss off your allies. We see this when we critically look at the statement “For Washington, restricting Beijing’s access to cutting-edge processors is a way to blunt China’s rise in artificial intelligence and military applications.” In the first, Huawei is using its own chips, making it doubtful that it is ‘cutting edge’ and in the second, you just tried to ‘beg’ Saudi Arabia for more money, do you think that they as well as the UAE will take that warning? Huawei already has a decent grip on that region with cutting edge development and Oracle is about to go there too. So is this the best way for the American administration to hedge their bets? Now that their credit rating dropped, I reckon the floodgates are no longer sealed, whatever they let through will cost America close to billions and there are people holding trillions in American debt, as such they are likely to get out while the going is good.

So what if I am wrong?
It is doubtful, but it is a fair question. Look at all the economy that America lost in this year and add the losses of next year too, because as I see it, tourism and all the connected spendings are close to gone until at least 2027. Then in 2029-2031 Saudi Arabia has its 2030 setting with all the new resorts (which was always going to happen) and as such you see, the strangling interest of 36 trillion on American and their dream settings. The fact that Tourism at present is “This significant shortfall represents a 22.5% decline compared to the previous peak” as such their current setting is a lot less than 2019 before COVID, it is that bad and we might not care for the income of Disney, or Warner Brothers but this also impacts all the places around them as people cannot afford it all in these places. These places will share in those losses, as such I reckon that Florida will have a few massively bad years (compared to the present). Do your own researching and never accept anyones word as gospel (not even from me), know that data, know your area and see where the losses can be seen.

I reckon that Oracle is doing fine and will be doing fine for some time to come, but they too have shed employees in 2024 and 2025.

As I see it, when the masses get the insight of how bad America is doing, that coffin will basically bury itself. So have a great day and don’t let the recession hit you in the head, it is an expected two weeks away at present and there is the setting we all received there hours ago ‘Why France, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Finland, UK, Netherland, Belgium Issuing Travel Advisories to US, Making a Big Dent in American Tourism Revenue, The One Detail That Changes Everything’ as such the bulk of the EU is turning away from America on tourism, as you can see, I remained optimistic, it seems the news is pushing ahead of the settings we now see and when they catch on regarding bonds and America quality of life going down too, the panic will hit wall street and several other markets

So enjoy this Saturday.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Politics, Science, Tourism

Tagged as AFR, America, Ascend AI semiconductors, Australian Financial Review, Beijing, Canada, China, Covid, credit rating, Disney, Greenland, Huawei, Moody, News, Oracle, politics, President Trump, reuters, Saudi Arabia, Trump, UAE, Warner Brothers

May 12, 2025 · 16:58

America’s shifting phase

This morning Arab News (at https://arab.news/9hjca) gave us ‘First Saudi-made THAAD system parts completed in Jeddah’ Saudi Arabia has been aiming for the need of internal national interests to have this done. We are given “Saudi Arabia has completed the first domestically manufactured components for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system launcher in Jeddah, marking a significant step forward in the Kingdom’s ongoing efforts to localize its defense industry.” And as we are given “Tim Cahill, president of missiles and fire control at Lockheed Martin; Nawaf Al-Bawardi, assistant deputy of the General Authority for Military Industries; and Wasim Attieh, president of AIC.” We seemingly are all OK with this, this is not really news. Saudi Arabia was aiming for this all along. In this case the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system launcher (THAAD) was on show. But the story goes beyond that. I reckon that the FEINDEF 2025 (Spain) as from today was the second initial kick off, but there were other symptoms. There was the (DSA 2024) in Kuala Lumpur and the International Defence Exhibition and Conference (IDEX/NAVDEX) in Abu Dhabi, UAE. I personally believe that Saudi Arabia kept close eyes on the ready date of this system as it allows them to gain interest from Bangladesh, Egypt and Indonesia, they might not be ‘big league’ material, but Bangladesh and Egypt represent almost $5 billion each and Indonesia represents $11 billion. Now, they don’t spend it all in one go, but Saudi Arabia is said to get a speculated part of that and even with a mere 200 million (over all three) that becomes a massive boost for the Saudi Defence industry, even more so, it would be revenue that America and Russia loses. Gives the expression “when two dogs fight for a bone, the third runs away with it” a new side to that equation. So as Lockheed Martin is locking in their services and consultancy for close to another decade, Saudi Arabia’s first delivery system is gaining strength in the defence industry. Bangladesh being 35th, Egypt 19th and Indonesia 16th. They are giving strength to the Saudi Defence industry. So as I saw that market evolve in February 10th 2022 in my story ‘Oh darn, I am missing out’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/02/10/oh-darn-i-am-missing-out/) with those decrepit tea grannies, it took Saudi Arabia a mere 3 years to evolve their own market. They now have their own industry. So cry “stop arming Saudi Arabia” all you like, the only thing they’d hurt was the British defence industry. And as I see it, they are about to do a lot more than hurt ‘the British business’, they are gaining political power by giving the Arabian nations and Asian nations their own voice, not hindered by America, Russian or British political powers. Now they (meaning Saudi Arabia) become the global political power player.

As I see that, I am reminded of the old setting that my granny complained about the essential need of the young to rely their technology, so I switched off her life support. How’s that for fun?

The world is getting smaller and the reach of every nation is increasing and now we see clear settings (not through alleged sport washing) that Saudi Arabia is becoming the larger power in the global arena. In the 2025 edition of “The Military Balance” from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is currently on the 7th place, yet if this takes off Saudi Arabia will be in a position to become 5th, optionally 4th and their defence industry will be making a profit as the Arabian nation will see that Saudi Arabia is the ‘friend’ to hold in esteem, as that starts happening Pakistan might also change vendor it is at present a mere $10 billion, but as it is only 12% of India, it might see reason to switch if Saudi Arabia is willing to talk shop and that is another slice of pie that will not end in America’s or England’s budget. As I personally see it a start has been made for Saudi Arabia to become less dependent on their oil industry. Starting ‘small’ is a beginning, so as Saudi Arabia creates more options. I reckon that they would likely evolve their drone industry next, Saudi Arabia is becoming a much larger industry. Only 5 years ago we would have seen an industry with America, Russia, China and the United Kingdom as players. Now even at 5th place, Saudi Arabia becomes the new player in town and that sets a new premise for global economies. Russia and America never had to share that revenue pie and I guess they will have to content with less as per 2026 onwards.

A nice setting for Saudi Arabia who is likely to seek more revenue from Pakistan as it is outmatched to India at 2:1 in the best settings they can hope for and that allows for larger business benefits for Saudi Arabia. We tend to forget that war is business and their business is war. A little outdated setting, but we forget that it isn’t ugly to some, it is a payday. An essential need for any nation is to defend itself from enemies hostilities and that setting is over 2000 years old. It was given to us by Julius Caesar (that Italian dude). He did so in Commentarii de Bello Gallico at 50BC.

I reckon that the Saudi defence industry will be more than a simple blip by the time we get to 2027, still three years ahead of the schedule we saw 5 years ago.

And as I personally see it, these tea grannies (CAAT) are still drinking tea, but the option for a biccie with that tea will soon be done for, because the revenue you hurt also impacts what you can have and they vied for less, so they will have less. I take my learning from someplace else. America decided to hurt Huawei as they were a threat, now we have HarmonyOS entering version 5.0, and Reuters gave us last November that ‘Huawei wants 100,000 apps on Harmony OS within a year’, and set that against Alphabet (Google) had announced plans to cut 12,000 jobs, or 6% of its global workforce In January 2023, Amazon laying off 14,000 people in name of efficiency? (Source: MSN) and in 2023 Microsoft laid off approximately 10 000 employees followed by an additional 4 000 roles being cut in 2024. So with these big three ‘decimated’, who will counter Huawei? As I see it no one and now Huawei will have another industry to set foot in. Because all these Saudi systems require automation (as well as other options) as such HarmonyOS will be seen almost everywhere and that is only the beginning. Those who push to limit others, merely limit themselves and we have plenty of evidence there.

As I see it the shifting space of America is seeing that they never wanted other to be in certain places. This sounded like an idea in the 80’s when America was a global power, but they no longer are. They are mere steps away from becoming a third world country. You cannot remain a 3.4% military spending of GDP whilst being seen as a 37% of global spending. A 997 Billion invoice where in the fiscal year 2024, the U.S. federal government collected $4.92 trillion, not whilst you have $36.21 trillion in federal debt (and they cannot pass a budget either), it just cannot be done. As such the America setting will implode all whist their tech is set to impossible markers.

As we consider this and we consider that the Russian stage merely sounds better (whilst it isn’t) there is every possibility that be 2027/2028 Saudi Arabia could become 4th or 3rd as a defence industry by that time. The idea that Saudi Arabia surpasses or equals America in three years is making me giggle. How the mighty fall, so how’s that for looking great, President Trump? It started on your watch in 2020 and almost a decade later you become allegedly surpassed by Saudi Arabia by 2027, a nice footnote in your memories and I reckon you will blame everyone but yourself in that writing. I am curious what the World Defense Show 2026 in Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center will give us. I reckon that Saudi Arabia will have a few nice surprises in that show. I am willing to bet that Huawei will have a stand there to in showing us what the Internet of things driven by HarmonyOS will give the world. I reckon you need to reserve tickets for the event on February 8-12, 2026 now. As I see it the first day will be for the larger customers, so February 8th has been sold out to preferred customers. So, when will you optionally go?

I won’t be invited, so let me know how the snacks were, they tend to be magnificent at these events. Now I’m hungry, time for some peppered crackers. Have a great day.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as Abu Dhabi, AIC, Amazon, America, Arab News, Bangladesh, CAAT, China, Defence Industry, Egypt, google, HarmonyOS, history, Huawei, IISS, Indonesia, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Jeddah, Julius Caesar, Kuala Lumpur, Microsoft, Middle East, MSN, Nawaf Al-Bawardi, Pakistan, politics, Riyadh, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, THAAD, Tim Cahill, travel, UAE, us debt, Wasim Attieh, World Defense Show 2026

May 4, 2025 · 03:24

The nature of things

It was about to weeks ago that I wrote ‘Regarding that joke’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/04/19/regarding-that-joke/). In that article I wrote “A setting we all saw coming (even though the media seems to ignore this and merely keeps on shouting tax the rich) and the interested parties who are supposed to keep the people informed are merely shouting that Haley Joel Osment was intoxicated instead of working on the news, the media is pretty much on the discarded bundle of wannabe news”, as well as “As one source told me (and others) “China could theoretically weaponise the US Treasury holdings – by dumping it – meaning that it would sell off treasury holdings for less than they are worth. By doing so, China would then, because of the amount it owns, devalue the US dollar” so what happens when the dollar gets devaluated to this degree?” That was two weeks ago. In the meantime “Trump had demanded of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that Japan eliminate its $70 billion trade surplus with the US. He claimed it would be easy. He repeated the demand during April 16 negotiations in DC. In response to all this, Japan tried to placate Trump, refused to cooperate with other nations suffering similar abuse, and asked for special exemptions for Japan at the expense of others. In fact, one of the reasons Trump chose Japan for the first round of trade talks was his belief that Tokyo would cave within a few weeks, thereby inducing others to do likewise.” (Source: several). Yesterday I thought I saw water burn (which is pretty freaky to say the least). Axios (merely one source) gives us ‘Japanese finance minister says selling U.S. bonds a “card on the table”’ with the yowza response “Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Friday that the country’s $1.13 trillion in Treasury holdings were a “card on the table” in trade talks, The Associated Press reported.” Talking about the tiger that feeds himself with your hand, and the added text becomes “Japan is one of the five largest U.S. trading partners, as well as a rock-solid ally in the region, so there was some surprise when the U.S. hit the country with a 24% reciprocal tariff in early April.” And now Japan puts the US bonds they have on the table and with more than one trillion in hand they could flood the market and push the dollar straight over the edge. If that happens no run on the bank will save people and America cannot come up with that much money to feed the hungry vultures, as such America now has a massive problem and it is not China pushing the cart, it is Japan itself who will not go gently into that good night. So on one hand we see “As U.S. Treasuries sold off last month and yields spiked, there was speculation foreign governments might be dumping bonds”, as well as “J.P. Morgan Private Bank, in a research note last week, said there were signs of foreign selling pressure, but from private holders, as opposed to governments “weaponizing” their holdings” which is fun as my blog article preceded the two by one week, so its not merely a sign of the day time reference, the planet moved 89,292 kilometers in the time that lapsed between me writing the blog and J.P. Morgan Private Bank coming to that same conclusion (it’s actually nice to use NASA metrics to make a case). All that and AP News giving us (at https://apnews.com/article/japan-treasurys-trump-tariffs-44b9b37bf7a290701201322f69bade2e) yesterday ““It does exist as a card, but I think whether we choose to use it or not would be a separate decision,” Kato said during a news show on national broadcaster TV Tokyo. Kato did not elaborate and he did not say Japan would step up sales of its holdings of U.S. government bonds as part of its talks over President Donald Trump’s tariffs on exports from Japan.”” The words from Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato to live by I say and when you combine this with the article I wrote two days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/05/02/saudi-arabia-goes-hiragana/) ‘Saudi Arabia goes Hiragana’ where we see that Japan basically has a way out to prevents its economy to become scuttled as well. As such the noose around its economical neck is diverted to a working solution. As I see it, America now gets that additional noose around its neck to double the efforts of the economy strangling itself (what a security measure).

As the grand vizier of Agrabah (in Aladdin) states “The idea has merit”, get economical advice from a Disney character? Oh, kill me now (I is havening to be laughing out loud at present) or as Monty Python states: ‘Howls of deriving laughter’ are mine and the tears are falling over my cheeks. I haven’t laughed this hard since my fathers funeral.

So this must be the most original way that a politician ever shoot its own foot

Americans might not be laughing as this is actually is devastatingly serious. The (as some call it) bully tactics are now starting to bite back and the bigwigs in Wall Street will be seriously moving assets with an additional passports to zero tax nations, perhaps one that also doesn’t have an extradition treaty with America. So if any of those get plane tickets out of America (people like Jerome Powell or Alan Greenspan), you get the idea. When people take that move, the setting is all over for America, there will be no more moves to make. And these people have been ‘diversifying’ their income for decades. They moved small amounts around the planet and they could survive on their millions and they might vacate their consultancy firm from Davos in the Desert to Davos, Switzerland (a mere example). So they were ready from the get go and with this situation they might have larger consultancy jobs in several nations (including Switzerland, Monaco and the UAE). So these people will just vacate Idiotville as some call it (that place between Canada and Mexico) as quick as their Beechcraft Premier can carry them. No lines, no waiting.

So, will Japan do this? I reckon it will depend on who controls President Trump, because as I see it, the man is basically a loose canon at present and with that level of knee jerks the financial world is pretty hesitant and frightened on what he might do next. That’s is basically what I personally see.

A setting that is a lot less nice than my weird personal dream I had on Friday involving a mall, a coffeeshop and me meeting Matt Damon and Ridley Scott (seeking a replacement voice for someone with a perfect Dutch accent), the weird snoozes and snores I tend to have.

The nature off things that we embrace, some will walk the path away from bully tactics, some are on the market for having financial independence and some are about getting out of the line of fire (or a location about to get carpet bombed). Whatever we do, we look out for number one (ourselves) and optionally (read: preferably)with improved comfort levels. What that is tends to differ from person to person and in the words of the great man Tony Curtis (Operation Petticoat) “In confusion, there is profit” a very acceptable stage for a lot of people with a calculating nature.

So have a great day and enjoy your coffee today (I had mine with a cookie this morning).

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Media, Politics

Tagged as Alan Greenspan, Axios, Beechcraft, Canada, China, Davos, Davos in the desert, Disney, economy, Haley Joel Osment, J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Japan, Jerome Powell, Katsunobu Kato, Matt Damon, Mexico, Monty Python, Operation Petticoat, politics, President Trump, Ridley Scott, Shigeru Ishiba, tariff, Tony Curtis, TV Tokyo, US Bonds, Wall Street

May 3, 2025 · 02:25

Where is the gem?

That is the setting I am faced with. You see, like McCarthy had his Russian phobia, Trump is now delivering the Chinese phobia, also known as the yellow fear. We can argue how right McCarthy was in light of the events from the last few years (and a decade before that), But as the yellow fear is grasping America, the question becomes, is it a valid one? I am not denying that there are issues, the larger setting is now on big tech. You see Apple known for its multi trillion dollar value is now under the hammer. The article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86jx18y9e2o) gives us ‘Apple says most US-bound iPhones no longer made in China’ the issue is not that they aren’t made in China. The stage becomes where are they made now? At present Apple is giving us that “It comes as the technology giant estimated that US import taxes could add about $900m (£677.5m) to its costs in the current quarter, despite Trump’s decision to spare key electronics from the new tariffs.” Yet as I see it, the focus is in the wrong area. It is not where it is build now, the question becomes “At what loss?” And it is not money I am speaking of. These plants are Chinese in nature (as far as I can tell), and now we get a very new stage. No matter where they are set. China might not like it that certain IP manufacturing settings will leave China, which would be an acceptable move. Not for Apple and the losses they will receive because of it, and there the tariff war takes another bite out of the meat that is American Revenue. I am not stating that this will be great, but even at a mere 2% loss of quality it will impact numbers and it will hit Apple’s customer satisfaction. A simple setting that will impact the Apple revenue bottom line and it will be more than dollars. This could (could being the operative word) impact customer care numbers too. A whole new area for Apple to maneuver against the economic currents it is fishing in.

As Timmy the Cook gives us “He also said Apple is shifting its supply chain for US-bound products away from China, but it is India and Vietnam that are poised to be major beneficiaries of that move.” It is the setting that I fear, as China is pushed out, whomever gets the new ‘victory’ is likely to be no more than 95% of what China delivered and that impacts, so even if there is merely 1% impact (I fear it is larger) it impacts numbers of produced iPhones, as well as the QC of the product. So not only will Apple see less results, if this holds up the loss of quality (with an impact of more service patches) will upset its customers to no end and the speculative result is that this more merely impacts the need for a Huawei phone (I would be OK with the jump from Apple to Google), which will feel good for Google, but Apple will not be pleased.

So as we consider “China will remain the country of origin for the vast majority of total products sold outside the US, he added.” With the setting that Made for America will not have the rosy stage that President Trump is hoping for. I might think that Apple will not like it either. And with “However moving production lines to India will take time and significant investment, costing billions of dollars”, with the added “Apple have said they want to invest $500B over the next few years.” And that still comes with my speculated expected loss of quality, a setting that Apple never wanted, or never opted for.

So what is the real threat? Is it China or has it become President Trump?

Even as the Financial review gives us ‘Apple and Amazon have no idea what’s coming’, I myself don’t agree. They are very much aware that they know. The American Administration howling like little puppies that Amazon was making moves to give their customers a look at what the tariff was doing to their goods with ‘Donald Trump slams Amazon’s rejected plan to display cost of tariffs on goods’ (source: ABC News) I wonder when people will figure out to ask questions from an administration bend on hiding additional charges (to customers) and consider that the quote “US President Donald Trump has labelled a reported plan by online retailer Amazon to display the cost of US tariffs on its products as a “hostile and political act”.” Is clear evidence that this America Administration is all about a lack of transparency. It is the statement from Shanti Kelemen, chief investment officer at M&G Wealth where I have issues. I do not deny that her statement is true, but lacking “There will still be tariffs that impact the supply chains [for Apple] and a cost to move them and build new factories” It took years to get the Chinese factories to work at the level they are now working at. The other factories will have to go through all these pains to get them running and that is before you consider that there would also be staffing issues. China and India have different settings in mental achievements. So the pain for Apple is merely beginning.

A setting that the bulk of people are overlooking, I wonder why.

So as Amazon scrapped the tariff mention on its pricing, the call was heard by a lot of people and they are now looking at Temu and Alibaba. Alibaba mentioned a net income up by 237.53%. Today the Alibaba group is up by 3.83%. I cannot say how much of an impact the tariff has had there, but as others are merely scraping by and some are even reporting losses, the view on Alibaba might not be seen as a good thing, yet Wall Street seems optimistic about Alibaba (not that I know anything about that).

So this is where the gem requires seeking. Is it still Apple? And there is a second setting. Will there be a larger call to reject the Apple for American markets? This is not easily answered because it is all depending on what is yet to happen. But Americans might be required to smuggle their new Apple devices into America. All because of a setting that the American administration itself is hunkering down on the lack of transparency. The one weird thing I am noticing is that the tariff solution is setting the minds of others towards what is the right path and at present it is not an American First item. And there is more bad news on the horizon (for America) as we seek gems we should be aware that Huawei is a much larger gem than expected. You see, Huawei is making larger captures revenue that expected. The headline ‘Indonesia is hooked on Huawei’ (Source: ASPI) is important as Indonesia is 3% of the planet. This might not seem much, but it gives Huawei larger importance to get into Bangladesh which gives them another 2%, so in a few short weeks Huawei gets an improved 5% goalpost. They already had visibility all over the Arabian peninsula and as Egypt is becoming a larger slice of their business, we see that America basically lost out of a 7% market share. As I see it America First is having a few corners they slice off from themselves. As these stages are evolving and the setting for Europe changes, as America is fumbling the ball. They are now ready to ignore American ‘advice’ and reopen doors with Huawei (likely with conditions) and as I see it Huawei is likely to respond favorable to that. As I see it, the game is changing andAmerica is losing several base stations in delivered ‘revenue’, a state that was almost unimaginable less than a year ago. That was shown a mere two months ago with ‘German telcos pool efforts to retain more ‘open’ Huawei – sources’ and as this is realised, the rest of Europe is likely to follow, at least the EU is.

The gem were not the tech companies, they are found where these companies were not, mainly through the pains given to these companies. Apple was not the focus, the companies that profited by the pain given to Apple. The moment you see that, is the moment that you realise that this chaotic setting is giving Chinese companies the open doors they were waiting for. I have no idea what Russia is up to, but this reminds me of the Toshiba settings. I wonder if this is what was supposed to happen, but no matter what. It seems that Huawei is profiting because of this. And with HarmonyOS now at version 5, Apple and others don’t only have to deal wit Android, they now have a competitor in HarmonyOS devices. This is a time to remember the words of Richard Yu who stated that all Huawei devices the company will launch in 2025 will be powered by HarmonyOS Next. You might have forgotten that, but I did not. So as Apple and Google were given settings of diversification, Huawei combined all the strengths they had and that will also impact market share.

So as some will be given and accepted that the gem is America First. Others might not agree with that and as some sources are diverted Chinese corporations are now focussed on Asia, Arabian countries and Europe (through TAWAL). A setting I warned for almost two years ago and now it is seemingly happening. So where were these captains of industry?

Have a great day and enjoy the smell of coffee in the morning.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Science

Tagged as Alibaba, Amazon, Apple, ASPI, Bangladesh, BBC, China, economy, Egypt, Eu, Europe, Germany, google, HarmonyOS, Huawei, Indonesia, iPhone, M&G Wealth, politics, President Trump, Richard Yu, Saudi Arabia, Shanti Kelemen, tariffs, TAWAL, Tim Cook, Toshiba, Trump, UAE, Wall Street

April 30, 2025 · 04:03

Omitted resources

That is the exercise of this morning. As Reuters treats us to a story (at https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uaes-adnoc-supply-us-lpg-india-following-china-us-tariffs-sources-say-2025-04-29/) giving the reader ‘UAE’S ADNOC to supply US LPG to India following China-US tariffs, sources say’ A setting I saw coming a mile away. As we are given “The move will enable ADNOC to ship more of its own LPG to China, where buyers are paying higher premiums to replace U.S. supply after Beijing imposed steep tariffs on U.S. goods, and reduce LPG costs for India, the world’s No. 2 importer”, so I saw this and the high payed economists in America did not? In my story ‘War of trades’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/02/01/war-of-trades/) I gave on February 1st (almost 3 months ago) “We set the same to India who exports oil to the United States. Set that to Europe (to a much larger degree) and all its Commonwealth allies and America suddenly gets a much larger problem. Well they can import it from Venezuela and Russia I reckon. So, how is that going now President Trump?” This setting was oil and it was from India, so now we see that the UAE is replacing America with India as a new destination. So for America it is no longer about revenue, it becomes a lack of resources as the UAE is now shipping more of its own LPG to China (via India). It is the cumbersome situation involving tariffs. It almost seem like a new puzzle game, not unlike mixed currency deals on the internet. And now (as I see it it) America is losing more than one side in this. So as we read “ADNOC, through its trading units, has agreed to supply some U.S. LPG cargoes to India refiners under the annual contracts from June-July, said sources” as I see it, America is losing tariff revenue that ay and this is merely one step towards a new setting where America is replaced as a resource, and this also means that the political and diplomatic powers of America is dwindling down. In this way the UAE is gaining power both political and diplomatic as India is reassessing what allies they have and who no longer seems to be an ally. In this tariffs will get cumbersome on more ways then one. Soon America is losing additional revenue streams, because this setting is merely a first step. When China sets up new stages with Europe and the Middle East America can go bobbing for apples all they like, but it seems that the apples are being replaced and that sounds a lot like the old premise of murder. Segregation, Separation and Assassination. The stage that we see was made by America, they merely didn’t consider that it could be used against them and as I see it, both China and Russia like the new setting immensely. As I wrote lately that the interest on debt is costing the annual tax revenue to be 15% less, so the belt was already being tightened and now the revenue streams are missing the point they needed to make and another 10% will diminish. So how long until the American economy can no longer afford it? We can believe what Irwin Stelzer (The Times) told us that America’s economy is good. But as CNBC gave us yesterday ‘Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to a summer recession in Apollo’s shocking trade fight timeline’, then we also got a few hours ago ‘Port Of Los Angeles Warns ‘Difficult Decisions’ Ahead As Shipments From China Cease’ (source: Investor’s Business Daily) and 17 minutes ago CNBC gives us ‘Pfizer CEO says tariff uncertainty is deterring further U.S. investment in manufacturing, R&D’ as such, how much more bad news do we need to see before people in media start considering that the economy of America has gone topsy turvy?

And in the meantime as the Commonwealth is strengthening their walls the group of five might soon have one less member (yes, it is America). As such the new costings for the CIA will drastically alter and as the NSA is equally losing access to international intelligence the stage becomes how much money is America willing to pay for less reliable data?

As such we get a new stage of omitted resources. America is losing revenue in several settings and the outcome of that is not really visible, but it will cost a bundle. A lot more than the tariffs are bringing in. In addition to that they pissed of the largest ally they had for decades and as such are losing more ‘friends’ as they are equally hurt and these ‘friends’ are willing to row it alone without the two dinghies called CIA and NSA. As such more power, revenue and friends are lost. But feel free to think it is all honky dory. And that changes when oil will g missing, so will America keep on selling their own oil, or is that a new revenue stream that will become largely lost soon enough.

You know, I am hesitant to blame President Trump for this setting. The question becomes who pushed this agenda? Are these elected officials blind, or will we see soon see articles with titles like ‘He bullied us and we were afraid’, I have no idea. Just floating an idea here. And when we have added these facts as well as add the fact that the The Arab Weekly gave us yesterday ‘Trump further strains Egypt ties by calling for US ships to cross Suez canal ‘free of charge’’ the story (at https://thearabweekly.com/trump-further-strains-egypt-ties-calling-us-ships-cross-suez-canal-free-charge) gives us ““American Ships, both Military and Commercial, should be allowed to travel, free of charge, through the Panama and Suez Canals!, ” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.” Its was the only source I saw, so keep that in mind. And the response in the same article was “Egyptian MP Mustafa Bakri criticised the remarks, describing them an “attempt at blackmail.”” Do you still believe that America isn’t close to default on all their loans? I wonder who will survive that 36 trillion bad bank setting.

So, you all have a possible great day and relax if there is still coffee on the shelves. And don’t forget the former governor of the Bank of England works for the Commonwealth, well, actually he works for Canada, not America. Ciao!

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Media, Politics

Tagged as ADNOC, Arab Weekly, Bank of England, China, CIA, CNBC, Commonwealth, economy, Egypt, Eu, Europe, India, Irwin Stelzer, LPG, Mark Carney, Mustafa Bakri, NSA, politics, President Trump, Russia, Saudi Arabia, tariffs, Trump, UAE

April 28, 2025 · 12:09

Is it reality?

That is the question I am faced with as I saw the article at CBC which I cannot continue as CBC screwed up its site giving us advertisements every inch of the article, as such Brodie Fenlon clean up your freaking site, and fire the idiot responsible for this. Yet the BBC came to the rescue and gives us (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2v37z333lo) ‘Trump deep sea mining order violates law, China says’ in earnest, that article is three days old and I preferred the CBC article as it shows a little more clearly how desperate America has become for funds. I reckon that the interest on 36 trillion of debt is gnawing on the bones of America, more prevalent that gnawing has gone beyond the bones as it is starting on the bowels of America. The BBC article gives us “Donald Trump has signed a controversial executive order aimed at stepping up deep-sea mining within US and in international waters. The move to allow exploration outside its national waters has been met by condemnation from China which said it “violates” international law.” I tend to agree with China, but merely as it allows a setting where the desperate poor countries who cannot counter America and these nations are left with baubles. A setting they learned from the slave traders around 1768. You have to hand it to trump. He is giving the old scriptures a chance to prove themselves. The issue I partially have a problem with is “The administration estimates that deep-sea mining could boost the country’s GDP by $300bn (£225bn) over 10 years and create 100,000 jobs”, in the first there is no clear setting for the $300,000,000,000 revenue. If they ‘mine’ in a few wrong sports, the price if mining and the revenue of staff will cost them an easy $50,000,000,000 which implies a lost revenue base of 16%, the second part is that these jobs are mostly given to people they just evicted. Only the higher levels will get a nice dime, the rest will be done by Americans who didn’t want the job anyway and that breeds errors and often mistakes. A non-committed employee screws up the daily routine a lot more than you are happy with and that will be dozens of people. The part that I never gave the right attention is seen in ““The harm caused by deep-sea mining isn’t restricted to the ocean floor: it will impact the entire water column, top to bottom, and everyone and everything relying on it,” he added in a statement released on Friday.” The he in that quote is Jeff Watters of Ocean Conservancy, a US-based environmental group. The fact that Jeff merely got one quote implies that he has a whole lot more to say and I wonder if we will ever see that part of the equation. The larger setting is that America is now ready to start bullying its way through international waters. So what will they call those who want to intervene on their waters (or too close to it), will they suddenly be branded pirates? A larger setting that America has lost the plot and I warned for this a decade ago. Deal with your debt unless it deals with you and that seemingly seems to be happening now. It also opens a new setting. These little nations will now be ready to side with China, which is another headache for America. And that setting will give China (as a protector or these nations) an options to scuttle these miners. So $300 billion largely lost and American lives lost (at present no one cares about those). Now we get the added cost of these mining platforms and as such America gets into deeper waters.

So the end of the BBC article gives us “A recent paper published by the Natural History Museum and the National Oceanography Centre looked at the long term impacts of deep sea mining from a test carried out in the 1970s. It concluded that some sediment-dwelling creatures were able to recolonise the site and recover from the test, but larger animals appeared not to have returned.

The scientists concluded this could have been because there were no more nodules for them to live on. The polymetallic nodules where the minerals are found take millions of years to form and therefore cannot easily be replaced.” As such we have a (non proven) stage for the desperation of Americans. This was shown half a century ago. And the fact that America is willing to ignore “larger animals appeared not to have returned” as well as “polymetallic nodules where the minerals are found take millions of years to form and therefore cannot easily be replaced”. As I personally see it, to ignore these two facts implies that America doesn’t care (or cares less) about marine life and that it will act like a carrion eater in regards to the ocean floor and take now what needs millions of years to form whispers (to me) that America is decently beyond broke and it falls to President Trump to default the larger part of 36 trillion of debt. I’m pretty sure that I made mention of that chance in the past and as I am likely proven right yet again, the question becomes why didn’t economics signal clear levels of dangers? The news now, as the Times writer (and American economist) Irwin Stelzer gives us that the economy of America is in rather good shape. So is it really? Please give us the goods on how America is doing well? It might be that the America Economy is seemingly hanging tough, but they lost billions of revenue all over the field from retail to defense contracts. They might be in denial, bit as I see it only two years ago we would never have seen ‘Italian defence and aerospace giant Leonardo has signed a new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’ a mere three months old. So how much did America lose here? I cannot set the valuer of that contract, but the quote “multiple areas of collaboration to include space industry, airframe MRO (Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul), localisation of electronic warfare systems and radars and assembly of helicopters, a focus on Combat Air and Cross-Domain Integration fields, industrialisation processes and human capital development, national supply chain in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the country’s role for Leonardo in the region as well as the global value chain.” (Source: www.leonardo.com) leaves me to believe that it is a serious amount of money, now add the new European slices and with the tariffs the loss of America is now on a threshold to fuel a larger recession than ever speculated on before, the larger players (read: Bloomberg) set this chance at the moment at 40%, as America scuttled their own retail houses (like Walmart) of cheaper goods, they need to continue without the goods, you might think it is nothing, yet 1% of the American population works there, now take out the thousands of shoppers (read: immigrants) and that 2025 revenue of US$680.99 billion will topple by at least 10%, 30% if they are not careful and what remains of that Net revenue of US$19.436 billion? You see, they either fire a whole lot of them or lose close to 40% of their business. These are personally considered numbers, so I might be wrong here to the amount of loss, but not the intention of loss and this is merely Walmart. There are several other chains facing this setting. So how good is that shape of the economy?

I wrote a few years ago that we need to see where all these bonds are, no serious journalist ever looked into that matter it was the time around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023. I wondered how the could have happened and it was a much bigger thing. The acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS gave me pause to ponder, I figured that several banks had over swallowed on bonds which left them not dissolvent, but left their funds largely frozen as such I speculated that Credit Suisse and SVB had too many bonds and at that time the loss of value of these bonds were crippling them. At present no one really looked at this, even to debunk my train of thought and now we also see some are selling their debt of the US. The BBC touched on that on April 10th (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yrr0e7499o), so feel free to think I am crazy (always a decent stance to have) but there is ruffling in the economic oceans and the stage that the economic times are decently horrendous is not a bad thing.

I just thought of something, did America rename the Gulf of Mexico for mining purposes? Now a bad stance, if it not for the tiny fact that the Bermuda Triangle is there too, as such how many mining platforms will operate in that region and what remains a few weeks later is anyones guess. Just me having fun with the situation. 😛

Have a great day and feel free to enjoy a coffee, it leaves you with a warmer feeling than a US bond at present will.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Media, Politics, Science

Tagged as America, BBC, bloomberg, Brodie Fenlon, CBC, China, Credit Suisse, Irwin Stelzer, Italy, Leonardo, Mining, National Oceanography Centre, President Trump, Saudi Arabia, Silicon Valley Bank, SVB, The Times, UBS, US Bonds, USA, Walmart

April 20, 2025 · 23:27

Rollback

That is the word of the day, I have always had that word in my vocabulary. The setting that any solution o programmed in Clipper had the setting for a rollback. This is how I grew up (growing up in the Clipper age was a little weird). You see, I had two settings. The first was the data didn’t change and as I was a ‘little’ verbose with my data creation there was the option of registering a data version, so that was the setting. We needed a rollback in several situations and that is where the setting ends. You see, today I got to see a few news lines.

First there was Reuters (at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-jet-returns-us-china-victim-trumps-tariff-war-2025-04-20/) giving us ‘Boeing jet returns to US from China, a victim of Trump’s tariff war’, now that is a scrumptious hotdog to say the least. At almost $100 million, according to one source, that is a delicious snack to say the least and as we are told. China send it back. The tariff could cripple Xiamen Airlines as the tariff is 125%, and even as Reuters give us that the plane is a mere $55 million, we can say that the price difference is a little too much to be acceptable, the larger setting is that several players are trying to dam in the losses that are projected to become American losses.

Most of us will have seen the trade agreements that China made with Mexico, so there is that. Then there is the setting we see at where Business Insider gives us the setting that ‘Some Canadian Stores Are Labeling US Imports With a T for ‘Tariffs’’ (business insider put it behind a paywall, so that’s all you get. And only three days ago I saw the headline ‘China’s Strategic Pivot from US to Canadian Oil Imports’ (at https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/chinas-pivot-canadian-oil-imports-2025/) I cannot vouch for this source, yet in that setting we are given “Data reveals Chinese refiners have slashed US crude purchases by approximately 90% between 2023 and 2025, redirecting roughly 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) toward alternative suppliers, with Canada capturing a substantial portion of this market share.” So the first step to a change has been given and I foresaw these changes even as I never knew about the oil. So as I see it, these changes show billions upon billions in losses for America whilst we see damage to their export, their revenue making defense industry, their tourism and we can go on a little longer. Wouldn’t it have been great if America had a rollback setting for their elections?

So as Goldman Sachs gives us “The decline in the world’s reserve asset during an episode of elevated volatility comes as investors are increasingly focused on the US’s growing debt burden and other countries are also increasing their borrowing. “Markets are dealing with a lot of competing factors right now — fairly significant drivers where it’s hard to trade all of them at once,” says William Marshall, head of US rates strategy in Goldman Sachs Research.” Really? Only now do we see “investors are increasingly focused on the US’s growing debt burden”, that’s about 4 years too late, but whatever. I saw (and reported on this danger for a few years at least). If the EU, Japan and China dump their bonds (that will be an expensive exercise) the value of the Dollar doesn’t just drop, it ends up having getting a CCC− grade (to give a mere view on the matter). At that point the imminent suicide risk will spike all over Wall Street (a clear but reliable speculation).

I reckon that the one dropping them first gets the best value for it, but after that it will be a quick fall to the luxury value of zero. But it is not just America, the bonds of the EU and Japan will face a similar risk, America is merely the highest as someone thought it was a great idea to introduce the tariff game to their economy. Global News told their Canadians ‘Avoid U.S. travel if possible, Canadian academics are being urged’ with others following in similar settings. The Detroit News gives us ‘Avoid U.S. or take burner phones, Canada executives tell staff’ and there are more sources that give us that, with the added “Arrivals of noncitizens to the United States by plane declined by nearly 900,000 people, almost 10%, in March from a year earlier, according to data from the U.S. International Trade Administration. Travelers are reacting to President Donald Trump’s trade war and to stories of harsh detentions at U.S. airports. Border figures show 4,970,360 came to the U.S. from Canada in March 2024. That number dropped to 4,105,516 travelers a year later. More visitors reportedly traveled from Canada to the U.S. in March 2022 under pandemic-related travel restrictions than they did last month.” I think that Canada is the most likely of number drops, but I reckon that it is not the only one. So as I see it, the danger is not only to Tourism, but business travel too and in that case, hotels in all the major cities in the United States will report on losses of 10% or more, so what does that mean for the value of Marriott International, who operates 9,361 hotels worldwide as of 2024. In addition there is Hilton who operates over 8,400 hotels worldwide. I have no idea how many they operate in the USA, but these are merely the two larger players, especially in the business travel setting. So how many businesses are under the hammer because of this situation? And now as Canada is growing closer to the Commonwealth and they will protect their bigger brother (Canada is 9.985 million km² and the UK a mere 243,610 km²) OK, Australia is 7.688 million km², away highly smaller brother than the United Kingdom. But that setting now gives us that these business meetings are likely to be held in the United Kingdom or Australia. Hilton and the Marriott will still get their coins, but the underlying issues will hurt America to a much larger degree. And as this escalates over the next month or so, the damage to America will increase. Additional damage as China and India rolls in as expecting ‘saviors’ to Saudi Arabia and the UAE will change global politics and global economics to a much larger degree. India will get new options to get additional Pharmaceutical products sold to Saudi Arabia and that is another slice of a billion dollars. Then we get the UK, Australia and Japan hammering on improving their slice of Optical, photo, technical, medical apparatus, as such the American slice of $1.39B will decrees a lot more. All this started with tariffs and basically this setting was staged by President Trump. I merely wonder what got into him to drive America to the edge of insanity (and bankruptcy). What a miss that politics don’t have rollbacks and I reckon that the lawmakers in America will push for a larger change of settings, because I am certain that the Republicans are desperate to see this damage undone and it is me personal believe that they will accept any other politician, even a democrat to undo the damage they are seeing right now.

A mere 21 hours ago we got (at https://jakartaglobe.id/business/indonesia-seeks-stronger-trade-ties-with-eu-australia-to-offset-potential-us-export-losses) that Indonesia Globe gives us ‘Indonesia Seeks Stronger Trade Ties with EU, Australia to Offset Potential US Export Losses’, which is fine by me as I love the Indonesian version of Bami Goreng with Saté Ajam with peanut sauce. The best dish I ever had, even now after a decade, the scent penetrates my nose, even as I haven’t had it in over a decade. So I am looking forward to stronger ties with Indonesia and I kinda miss the spices we had in Batavia (my weird sense of humor). But the stage is drawn as more countries seek replacement for America, their tariff becomes their setting for isolation and Australia will be happy to have ties with a country that has 281.2 million potential consumers. I already gave the premise to Saudi Arabia as they have access to something Indonesia desires. As such there are more players to take over the places that America is about to lose and lose more of them. Next in line are the international students who will seek safer places to be. In this Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia have good chances as they all have great places Oxford, and Cambridge might be the first you think of, but not everyone can afford these places. There is till the University College London, University of Melbourne, University of Sydney, University of New South Wales, University of Toronto, University of Manchester, University of Technology Sydney, University of Southampton. These are merely a Commonwealth grasp of those who are in the top 100 and I reckon that the losses for America start to add up now. And that was merely the Ivy League, America has more good universities and now that the international students will seek education elsewhere, the economic picture of America will deteriorate more and more.

Wouldn’t it have been great to have some kind of political rollback in place?
Have a great day and consider where you need to set your focus to next.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Law, Media, Politics, Tourism

Tagged as America, Australia, Batavia, Cambridge, Canada, China, Clipper, Commonwealth, economy, Eu, European Union, Global News, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research, Indonesia, Jakarta, Jakarta Globe, Japan, Mexico, Oxford, politics, President Trump, reuters, tariffs, The Detroit News, Trump, United Kingdom, University College London, University of Manchester, University of Melbourne, University of New South Wales, University of Southampton, University of Sydney, University of Technology Sydney, University of Toronto, UNSW, UTS, William Marshall, Xiamen Airlines

April 19, 2025 · 18:46

Regarding that joke

It all started with a BBC article a few hour ago. I sat on the ideas that came forth as the story was a mere 21 minutes old and as there is so much hatred towards President Trump, I decided to wait to see what else we were getting. The story (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20x5xn1g92o) gives us ‘Trump says US will ‘pass’ on Ukraine peace talks if no progress soon’ where we get “Donald Trump has said the US will “take a pass” on brokering further Russia-Ukraine talks if Moscow or Kyiv “make it very difficult” to reach a peace deal. The US president told reporters in the Oval Office on Friday that he was not expecting a truce to happen in “a specific number of days” but he wanted it done “quickly”.” This is quite the turnaround. You see, about a month ago (source: Reuters) we got ‘Trump threatens Russia with sanctions until Ukraine peace reached’, in that time Russia never got any tariffs, not even pro forma and the penguins at McDonald island got plenty. Then three weeks ago (source: ABC News) we got ‘Trump says he’s ‘pissed off’ with Putin, threatens bombing of Iran’ and now we have a situation. You see, the bully talks a lot, but either he has someone doing the work for him, or that person tends to back down, unless he has a superior battle position and America seemingly doesn’t have that, even though Russia is getting slapped silly by the 20th strongest army onboard the planer (yes, it’s the Ukraine).

This reminds me of a joke, A Masochist walks up to a sadist and say ‘Beat me!’ The sadist in response wrings his hands, smirks and says ‘No!’. Funny as hell and if you get the premise, you get to see who the sadist and who the masochist is in this joke.

As we are given “Trump’s direct diplomacy with Putin and sharp criticism of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky have raised concern among Nato allies, who argue that support for Kyiv must be maintained.” And in addition to that, the Commonwealth clearly stands with the Ukraine in their time of need and America is nowhere to be found. As I personally see it, it is the consequence of being broke. The lack of funds (or the massive amount of debt) is setting the degrees of freedom to nothing. They can merely hope to sing out the setting until the next president comes into office. A setting we all saw coming (even though the media seems to ignore this and merely keeps on shouting tax the rich) and the interested parties who are supposed to keep the people informed are merely shouting that Haley Joel Osment was intoxicated instead of working on the news, the media is pretty much on the discarded bundle of wannabe news.

The bully always want quick results because it ingratiates his position. The long fight is not for him and that is the setting we need to accept. The Ukraine was attacked, it was invaded and that is seemingly the ignored setting, American politicians are merely duplicating the Russian position that they are in defense of and that is brutally wrong. Canada, the United Kingdom, NATO, Australia all see this. So why doesn’t America? In addition, we are presented with evidence that Chinese soldiers are now part of the Russian Armed Forces. This was given to us by the Guardian with the headline ‘Ukraine war briefing: Captive Chinese soldiers appear before the press in Kyiv’ and with the byline “Republicans increase pressure on Trump after 35 killed in Sumy, with US president calling for ‘death and destruction to stop’. What we know on day 1,147”

So as we wonder what is left of the ‘commie’ hating Republican Party, we need to address the elephant in the room. How could things have become that bad. I warned of the dangers of this debt over a decade ago in at least a dozen stories. It is currently set to “The national debt ($36.21 trillion)” it comes from the source that is called “An official website of the U.S. government” (read: Fiscal data) and the biggest holders of that debt are Japan and China. Did you think the tariff hands against China was a good deal? If they take the hit and push all that debt on the exchange tables, the debt could become a massive setting for America to pay back these IOU’s (also known as bonds) and that will implode Wall Street entirely (as I personally see it), but for Americans it will not be good. As one source told me (and others) “China could theoretically weaponise the US Treasury holdings – by dumping it – meaning that it would sell off treasury holdings for less than they are worth. By doing so, China would then, because of the amount it owns, devalue the US dollar” so what happens when the dollar gets devaluated to this degree? As I see it, it would topple the Yen and the Euro in that same instance as they have trillions of debts as well and the banks who own these IOU’s will go down with the good ship lollypop (aka America).

None of this is the fault of the Ukraine, but the larger setting is that America is quickly losing the little degrees of freedom they seemingly had and there is only so much that the global setting will accommodate too. Consider that Palantir Technologies Inc. is now a mere (+1.15%), a month ago it was 124.62 against today 93.78 and that was ‘the’ hot ticket, so how many hot tickets are lost and how many firms are considering moving away? Consider that Palantir is still a hot item in the Commonwealth, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They could seek a setting elsewhere. So as these tariffs bite and some of them will relocate to other places America is now getting the short end of the stick and that is merely one firm, this who cannot relocate will end up losing what they had built over years all because one president thought that tariffs were the way? Reuters gave us a mere 9 hours ago “White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett on Friday said President Donald Trump and his team were continuing to study if they could fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a sign that such a move, a matter of great consequence for the central bank’s independence and for global markets, is still an option.” Yet ABC news gave us yesterday “Donald Trump has hit out at the chair of the US Federal Reserve for not lowering interest rates, stating Jerome Powell’s “termination cannot come fast enough”.” Now, I am not an economist (I’ve said it often enough) and in what universe are the crashing of markets, stocks and bonds reason to lower interest rates? Especially as 36 trillion is in the hands of others? Now, I am no fan of Jerome Powell, but he does know a bit about economics (both micro and macro) and he knows a lot more than I do and I guess he knows (a lot) more then President Trump does. So is the solution by this president to fire anyone who disagrees? Is that the act of a democracy? And in the larger setting (which I obvious evaded with intent) is the setting the Ukraine gives us and what the stage means for Russia versus NATO, because that is where this is heading. I personally prefer the setting of NATO and the Commonwealth versus Russia. In that setting China wants to get a Chinese wall between themselves and Russia as fast as possible. And the likely implications for Taiwan are big and numerous. But that is another stage. With Russia in disarray to the degree that it currently is, Russia must take careful steps because Ursula von der Leyen is no President Trump, she might be overlooked at times, but she is ready for whatever President Putin puts on the table and as I see it, she is getting ready for a possible forced war, as are the larger EU nations. And this will set a new premise as the Commonwealth and the EU possibly unite for this. At that point no one is willing to deal with America and the Americans and with India they might not have to and as such it will become a powerhouse for retail and commerce for China Europe and the Commonwealth, when America is discarded from consideration the American tariff war becomes a larger setting one that they are no longer part of. And there is a setting for this too and as the Ukraine gains 17.1 million km² possibly split with China, where the Ukraine will now have Sevastopol on their Southern border and Zapolyarny in the north, the end of Russia is at that point a near certainty, a nation that started around 862, it becomes the first largest modern nation to end itself around 2030, a mere 1168 years old, which means that they didn’t beat the record of the Roman Empire which lasted 1480 years.

At that point the end of America seems to become self evident and that lasted a mere 260 years at most. Now that still puts them ahead of Canada, but that place will continue a long time after that because it is part of a Commonwealth and that will continue strong and even stronger as American greed goes under, it is a sinkable context. Still the larger setting for the Ukraine will remain and it will take NATO and the Commonwealth to keep it going, no matter what America does (which isn’t much at present). The larger setting here is the Republican Party, if someone told me 2 years ago that they would be fueling the larger Russian setting, I would have called them barking mad, but the is where we are heading and I personally believe that it is the Debt that America has as the larger premise here. Weird that a Credit Card reading minus 36 trillion would do that. OK, I believe that no Credit Card should ever be allowed to have this much debt, but that was never my call.

What is the larger resetting is what this will push for. You see 340 million desperate citizens will be the larger setting for any bordering nation to be fearful of and that is where Canada might end itself. Is this all ‘wishful thinking’? That is a fair question and I am tempted to say “Yes”, but the numbers are on my side, so I feel uneasy to answer this. I might have made a mistake, there might be some hidden wisdom in President Trumps path, but I fail to see it and the media isn’t reporting on this. If we account for the pauses and knee jerk reactions by President Trump there is little likelihood in any kind of wisdom and I did mention that the media is at present no longer a reliable source. Some are, but the bulk is chasing digital dollars. And with one source telling us ‘Unusual sell-off in the dollar raises specter of investors losing trust in the U.S. under Trump’ gives me the setting that I might actually be correct and the Wall Street Journal gave us a week ago ‘Will the Last Investor to Leave America Please Turn Out the Lights’ that sets the premise that Adobe, Google and Apple might seek other waters, waters outside of America. This is not a given, but these three will chose safety and security before they consider America a safe haven and that could topple the dollar entirely.

I cannot say who would like that idea, but Russia and China might like that, Russia because the American Defense placement would be disastrous if it is added to the Commonwealth or NATO. China because for them it would mean that their believes in their Chinese Communist Party would have been the right path. There is nothing as satisfying as a defeated enemy that needs to realise that they were banking on the wrong ‘ideals’ and as I see it for America the time that signifies 2030-2075 would introduce a century of hell, worse than the great depression and I reckon a lot more lethal as well.

So regarding that joke about the United Nations.

“A worldwide survey was conducted by the UN. The only question asked was: “Would you please give your honest opinion about solutions to the food shortage in the rest of the world?” The survey was a huge failure. In Africa they didn’t know what “food” meant. In Eastern Europe they didn’t know what “honest” meant. In Western Europe they didn’t know what “shortage” meant. In China they didn’t know what “opinion” meant. In the Middle East they didn’t know what “solution” meant. In South America they didn’t know what “please” meant. And in the USA they didn’t know what “the rest of the world” meant.”

I get to have the last laugh here. As I had to do a presentation at the UN and I got a nice reward if it lasted over 30 minutes. I started the presentation at 13:35, I started with “So, where are you all from?” And they started, I showed them my five slides and I ended the presentation at 17:55. So, Sergey Brin, where is my ‘nice reward’? 😛

All warfare is founded on deception, as such, what deception is America currently entertaining? Have a great day and a happy Easter bunny to all of you.

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as Adobe, America, Apple, BBC, Canada, CCP, China, Chinese Communist Party, google, Japan, Jerome Powell, Mark Carney, Mark Rutte, NATO, Palantir Technologies, politics, President Putin, President Trump, President Zelensky, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sevastopol, UAE, Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, Zapolyarny

Tag Archives: China

Recent Posts

Archives