Tag Archives: Oracle

December 8, 2025 · 22:58

A Peter Sellers world

That is what hit me when I saw ‘How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bubble’ (source: Bloomberg) which comes from Dr Strangelove where we get “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb” it started a larger set of thoughts. 

I didn’t use that article as Bloomberg uses a paywall. And it starts with yesterdays article in FXLeaders (at https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/12/07/oracles-ai-bubble-bursts-peak-glory-at-345-now-a-217-hangover/) where we see ‘Oracle’s AI Bubble Bursts: Peak Glory at $345, Now a $217 Hangover’ we are given “ORCL ended the week at $217.58, up 1.52 percent, but it still had a 37 percent hangover from its 52-week high of $345.72. This is a microcosm of growing concerns about debt loads, AI infrastructure spending, and whether the “infinite demand” narrative for AI compute can withstand real-world economics.” As well as “Oracle’s recent decline in stock value reflects broader market concerns regarding the high valuations of AI-related companies, as its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio exceeds 33. The company projects revenues of $166 billion from cloud infrastructure and $20 billion. Investors adopted a “sell the news” mentality, raising questions about the sustainability of these forecasts. Oracle’s fundamentals remain solid. The company experienced  52% growth in cloud infrastructure and has $455 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO), largely due to its partnership with OpenAI. Currently, the stock is trading at 13.9 times projected earnings for the end of this decade, leading some investors to view the decline as a potential buying opportunity.”

As I see it Oracle passed their burst bubble setting. And whilst we see ups and downs, I would unreservedly trust the Oracle stock to be a beacon of steadiness. It might not be sexy, but it is a trustworthy sign for those who need a decent return on investment.

Or as Peter sellers would say:
“As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden. Yes! There will be growth in the spring!” (Source: Being there) it was a better time and weirdly enough the age of Peter Sellers applies to the days that 2025 brings. And from that setting we get to MyNews (at https://sc.mp/ihj4g) where we see ‘Why 2026 will be the year AI hype collides with reality’ an opinion piece that gives me “The reckoning ahead for the AI bubble promises to reprice expectations, force economic trade-offs and call out circular deals” but the stronger setting is given with “Speculative assumptions guiding trillions of US dollars in AI investments are colliding with real-world obstacles. Escalating costs, stratospheric stock valuations, tenuous collaborations and energy bottlenecks are compounding the inevitable challenges when new technologies struggle for profitability. Many are worried the bubble may be bursting. Morgan Stanley projects that the cumulative amount spent worldwide on data centers could exceed US$3 trillion by year-end 2028. China’s AI investment could hit 700 billion yuan (US$99 billion) this year, 48 per cent more than last year, according to Bank of America, with the government supplying US$56 billion.” There is a setting for both ‘AI investments are colliding with real-world obstacles’ and ‘worldwide on data centers could exceed US$3 trillion by year-end 2028’ the weird feeling I have that it will not get this far, this entire setting will implode before the end of 2027, investors will stop feeling lovingly towards the boom that is not coming and will start feeling pressured that the terms required that will grow erratic setting for the need for greed and that is the setting that comes along long before 2027 is reached. 

Then we get to AOL who gives us (at https://www.aol.com/finance/goldman-sachs-issues-warning-ai-103249744.html) where we are given ‘Goldman Sachs issues a warning to AI stock investors’ where we are given ““Our discussions with investors and recent equity performance reveal limited appetite for companies with potential AI-enabled revenues as investors grapple with whether AI is a threat or opportunity for many companies. While we expect the AI trade will eventually transition to Phase 3, investors will likely require evidence of a tangible impact on near-term earnings to embrace these stocks. Unlike Phase 2, there will likely be winners and losers within Phase 3,” Goldman Sachs US equity strategist Ryan Hammond wrote in a new note on Friday. Hammond thinks AI investment as a percentage of capital expenditures could be nearing a climax. In turn, that sets the stage for overly upbeat AI investors to be let down if earnings don’t come in strongly in future quarters.” As I see it, when we are given these settings everyone seems to get concerned, so when we get in addition “Salesforce (CRM) and Figma (FIG) got drilled on Thursday after their earnings reports didn’t wow. It’s clear that the hype on their earnings calls wasn’t enough to paper over soft areas of the earnings reports. Growing concern on the Street centers around the pace of AI demand by corporations, given what looks to be a slowing US economy.” As I stated this before, the need for greed overwhelmed everything. When the setting of NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) is not clearly laid out and it is caught in the waves of board of directors and Investors believing that they have the AI solution everyone is looking for you gets a larger setting, consider that and consider what happens when OpenAI “fails to wow” the investors, or even a delay and it all comes to a large shutdown and that is even before we see 9 News giving us “A Sydney data centre that will host ChatGPT is being hailed as a win for Australia, but an expert warns the country lacks the energy supply needed to power it reliably” I gave a few months ago that there would be an energy problem on numerous levels and now we are seeing that whilst we are dealing with the the fallout of other settings. And less than an hour ago Deutsche Welle gives us ‘Google raises AI stakes as OpenAI struggles to stay on top’  with “Given those strengths, Adrian Cox sees “a very high probability” Google will have the leading model at least into next year — not OpenAI. OpenAI’s priority, he says, is identifying a business model capable of funding a user base that could soon approach a billion people per week.” This is not about OpenAI, I did that already, the larger frame is set in the perception of whatever the bubble is and I believe that there are two factors that the media doesn’t want or is avoiding to include. First there are the doom sayers trying to early burst confidence in favor of short gains and then there are people trying to short on whatever they can so that they can get another jolt of profit and they are all out trying to set social media on their side. 

So if this is the prologue of what is about to unfold we are in for a jolly good time, and as I see it, there is a chance that Christmas for some will be a disaster.

I wanted to include more of Peter sellers, like the Party or the Pink Panther but I am running out of juice. But there was one more thing and I got it from the Independent about an hour ago. It states ‘OpenAI rushes out new AI model in ‘code red’ response to fears about Google’ (at https://ca.news.yahoo.com/openai-rushes-ai-model-code-105822611.html) that was the snippet I was hoping for. With “The ChatGPT creator will unveil GPT-5.2 this week, The Verge reported, after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a “code red” situation following the launch of Google Gemini 3 last month. Google’s latest AI model surpassed ChatGPT in several benchmark tests, including abstract and visual reasoning, as well as advanced knowledge across scientific disciplines.” But that comes in a setting, you see, I stated in ‘TBD CEO OpenAI’ two days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/12/06/tbd-ceo-openai/) “in a software release any of a hundred things can go wrong and they all need to go right at present.” And when things are rushed out things will go wrong. But there is a snag, for this to happen The Independent article had to be correct and as they are the only one giving us this, there is no real verification available. But when you are in a stage when bubbles go boom (or plop) all the available facts become important. And I massively wish that a Peter sellers setting would help me out. And perhaps in view of this, his classic phrase “It’s no matter. When you’ve seen one Stradivarius, you’ve seen them all.” Especially when looking at NIP software. But that is also the snag. I have seen excellent applications and I have seen lesser ones. I reckon that it amounts to who plays the violin, if it is a creative person that person will find new life in whatever that person. applies NIP to, if it is a salesperson it will be about maximizing greed and that setting tends to have limitations on several degrees. In addition we are given “The new model was originally scheduled to launch in late December, but will now be released as early as 9 December.” I understand the pressures that come with this but they better understand that early launch bring dangers and investors don’t really like to be spooked (they also don’t like them) What we see is open to interpretation and it is a valid thought that my views are also open to interpretation. 

So in this I leave you all with a presenting view not unlike Peter sellers would say “To see me as a person on screen would be one of the dullest experiences you could ever wish to experience” and 

As you I have never been in a movie (at least I don’t remember being in one) you are spared that dull experience. So have a great day and don’t forget to love the bubble (if you haven’t invested your wealth there).

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December 2, 2025 · 18:09

Aftermath

That is a setting I never really contemplated, but the Guardian did and they did a terrific job, they even had a reference to the 49’ers, which will make Jeremy Renner happy. The article ‘The question isn’t whether the AI bubble will burst – but what the fallout will be’ by Eduardo Porter (at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/dec/01/ai-bubble-us-economy) hands us a few sides, a few I never considered as I was looking at the techno stuff, but here we see: “300,000 people flocked there from 1848 to 1855, from as far away as the Ottoman Empire. Prospectors massacred Indigenous people to take the gold from their lands in the Sierra Nevada mountains. And they boosted the economies of nearby states and faraway countries from whence they bought their supplies.” 

Which gives root to the expression 49’er and it continues giving us “Gold provided the motivation for California – a former Mexican territory then controlled by the US military – to become a state with laws of its own. And yet, few “49ers” as prospectors were known, struck it rich. It was the merchants selling prospectors food and shovels who made the money. One, a Bavarian immigrant named Levi Strauss who sold denim overalls to the gold bugs passing through San Francisco, may be the most remembered figure of his day.” 

And then we get the first sliver “How else to explain Nvidia’s stock price, which more than doubled from April to November, based entirely on the expectation, nay hope, that AI will produce a super-intelligence that can do everything humans do but better. Nvidia – like Levi Strauss back in the day – is at least selling something: computer chips. The valuations of many of the other AI plays – like Open AI or Anthropic – are based largely on the dream.” 

But there is a missing cog, this technology needs dat storage and that is where I saw the failing of others and the failings of those overlooking data technologies. Oracle is intrinsically connected to that, Azure needs it, Snowflake prefers it and pretty much every data vendor is connecting to Oracle to get it all done in the background, and that is the sliver. Oracle is intrinsically connected to it all and it is the tamer of the data beast or better stated the data demon. As Oracle brings out tools and optionally data settings within their AI storage settings to handle validation and verification, all others will need to adhere better and deeper to the Oracle foundation to even survive. Pretty much all the sources that see the dangers of what some call AI and is clearly nothing better than a DML/LLM engine will see that these two elements are essential to get the LLM engine to do anything that matters and that is where the bonus of Oracle currently resides (as I presumptuously see it) To show this, I will take you back to 1984

User comments

See here, this is what chess computer’s looked like. You press the chess piece you want to move and you push the square where it lands. That is the foundation of the chess computer. In the ‘underground’ of that chessboard are (figuratively speaking) two chips. One had the knowledge of chess, the second chip (mainly memory) has every chess match known to mankind (basically all games all grandmasters have ever played), the program sees what moves are made and that setting is translated to a ‘position base’ and it will look at all the matches who it can foresee what moves are coming. This is great for the player, as it now needs to make an illogical move to throw over the thinking of the computer and make it their bitch. This was pretty much the fist stage of Machine Learning and as todays computers are more clever, there resolution is no way better, It can only set foundation of what it learned, that is the simplicity of knowing that AI doesn’t yet exist.

So back to the story “As I pointed out in my last column about AI, Gita Gopinath, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, calculated that a stock market crash equivalent to that which ended the dot-com boom would erase some $20tn in American household wealth and another $15tn abroad, enough to strangle consumer spending and induce a recession.” And I have no way of knowing that setting, but as I see it, like Levi Strauss and the makers of bubbles (like in image one) someone has to supply the soap water and more important the jeans to not put once ass out to frolic and in that second setting Oracle comes in and even as I see the ‘panic drivers, saying that Oracle is dangerous’, there is another setting. Whatever comes out of this, whatever survives, most only survives on Oracle solutions. And that is what is left unspoken. Should Oracle add the Validation and Verification tables, they will be the only one raking in the gold when True AI comes, because it is not merely the missing part I discussed earlier, someone needs to set the record straight on what is optionally to be trusted and that is where Oracle sets the mark.

Which leads to “AI could produce a similar landscape. A critical determinant is how much debt is at stake. It wouldn’t be such a problem if the bubble were financed largely from the cash pile of Alphabet and Amazon, Microsoft and Facebook. They might lose their shirt, but who cares. The worrying bit is that it seems they are increasingly relying on borrowing, which means the prospect of a bursting bubble would again put the financial system at risk.” These systems are using the data as currency, as I see it, Oracle is putting its technology up for usage and that is a pretty safe way to do this. This is whyI have faith in Oracle, that is why I see Oracle as the one surviving the goldfish like a champion, because they are doing what Levi Strauss did. These data vendors are relying on data to clothe them, but if that data is not properly managed, they end up having nothing. Yes, Microsoft will survive, but at a level that is likely 2 trillion lower than it is now. And that is mainly because it wanted to be on top of things and they got (I think it was) 24% of OpenAI, but as that bursts, Sam Altman will have even less than I have now (and I am ridiculously poor) and that cargo train of debt will hit Microsoft square in the face, Oracle will get some damage, but not nearly as much and the world will need their data solutions. Why do you think everyone wants to connect to Oracle? It is the Rolls Royce of data collecting and data storage. And that is perhaps the only issue with that article, there is zero mention of Oracle.

So as we get “Big Tech has raised nearly $250bn in debt so far this year, according to Bloomberg, a record. Analysts at Morgan Stanley suggest that debt will be needed to fill a $1.5tn funding gap to ramp up spending on data centers and hardware. Problematically, it is getting hard to follow the money, as Nvidia, Open AI and others in the ecosystem buy into each other, clouding who, in the end, will be left holding the bag.” And there is one think wrong with this. Stargate is said to be $500bn, so there is a gap in all this and I reckon that the damage will be significantly worse, that is beside the small non mentioned fact that America at present has 5,427 data centers, how many of them and to what degree are they all set to ‘their version of AI’? So what is set in what some call Blue Owl solutions (like Meta) and what happens when those solutions ‘bubble out’ (collapse might be a better phrase) so when that happens, how much damage will that bring, because as I see it (not wearing glasses) the $1.5tn funding gap won’t even be close what is required. But that is just me speculating, so feel free to (I insist) that you get your own verifiable numbers. I reckon that between now and 2029 the return of a backlogged $4 trillion return on investment is required. So taking “a banks perspective”, an inaccurately amount of $292,500,000,000 in revenue needs to be shown for that bubble not to come and that is out of the question, but the setting that Eduardo Porter gives us, is what comes next and he gives it to us as “the Superhuman – can only come about by dropping LLMs – which are essentially massive correlation engines – and switching to something else called a world model architecture, where machines develop a “mental” model of the outside world.” It is a nice sentiment, but I do not completely agree with that. Correlation engines have their use and there is use in a DML/LLM setting, but identify it as such, not claim ‘AI does it’. Because it won’t and it can’t, but there are options in Oracle to upgrade the data you have and that is instrumental in surviving this bubble burst. And I have seen the folly in several places and that might set a better station down the road, because when true AI cones, it still needs data and if that data was managed, validated and verified in Oracle (preferably), half the war of that solution bringer is solved. 

So I need a different hobby, slapping Microsoft and AI evangelists is nice, almost a public service but I need a new idea for gaming IP, because that makes me happy and I like feeling happy. So whilst some think that “Nvidia, Open AI and others in the ecosystem buy into each other” is the hard core evil stuff (and it might be) there is a setting it reminds me of, it was in the 90’s and these ‘consultants’ were all into the need of funny money in the form of assignments, the issue was that when they had to show results they immediately took another job and took their ‘knowhow’ to greener shores and all the time this happened the shores were all becoming less and less green. This has the flair of that setting and to some degree the feel. 

I might be wrong on that last part, but that is what I feel on this, especially as the big players are buying into each others solution and handing each other pieces of paper that in the end has as much value as a roll off toilet paper.

It might not be eloquently phrased, but there is a time for that and this is not it, as speculated shit is about to hit the walls and if you are lucky it happens after Christmas (that is almost certain) but in the end, the invoice is due and that is where the CFO’s will show that as they embraced the Blue Owl solution, their company is saved. I would depend on and side with whatever Oracle has, it is not based on facts, it is a feeling and that feeling is strong at present. And in support I see (9 minutes ago) ‘Ooredoo Qatar announces strategic partnership with Oracle to deploy Oracle Alloy sovereign cloud and AI platform’, they didn’t go towards Microsoft, AWS of a few other settings, they trust Oracle and that is what plenty of others need to do.

Have a great day, I am now 8 hours from midweek, not a bad deal for me today and as the sun is shining brightly, I might hide in a winterly Hogsmeade whilst playing Hogwarts Legacy. Gaming is not a bad hobby to have in this case. Because the bubble is out of my control and I am happy to watch it all explode a day later (of whenever that is), most of the garnish news has been drowned out by real news at that point.

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November 25, 2025 · 12:56

The Rock of stars

That is the setting we see and it matters. The BBC gives us (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2ek2d9y61o) ‘Carney says trade talks with Trump to resume ‘when it matters’’ with the underlying “Asked when he last spoke to Trump, Carney responded: “Who cares? It’s a detail. I’ll speak to him again when it matters.” The prime minister’s remarks come after trade talks were derailed last month when Trump took offence at an anti-tariff advertisement featuring Ronald Reagan, which was aired by the province of Ontario.” It is the “Who cares?” That mattered. It had the Canadians in stitches, but the underlying truth is also there. America is done for under this administration. We all have heard how ‘Canada’ does not mean anything to President Trump except as a 51st state. And the Canadians are pissed and that is merely the beginning. But as the American administration thought that they had an upcoming minion and under Prime Minister Mark Carney Canada is showing itself to be the one nightmare you do not want to mess with and It is costing America nearly everything they have to stop this doom-setting from unfolding. 

In other news we are given (by CBC at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa-alberta-mou-energy-pipeline-9.6990768) ‘Ottawa, Alberta agree to broad outlines of energy deal, including support for pipeline’ where we see “Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have agreed to the broad outlines of a memorandum of understanding that would give Alberta special exemptions from federal environmental laws and offer political support to a new oil pipeline to the B.C. coast, CBC News has learned. The deal is set to be formally announced at a joint Carney-Smith news conference in Calgary on Thursday.” In this setting there is no America and with this there is an additional setting that gives Vancouver additional revenue streams and none of it is going to America. And hours ago CBC gives us ‘Carney, Modi agree to launch negotiations on new Canada-India trade deal’ with the text “In a social media post published Sunday afternoon, Carney said a trade deal could double Canada-India trade to $70 billion.” This comes after the UAE deal made and that puts Canada as the front runner for a massive revenue gain in several ways and whilst the Canadian Conservative Party gives us (via CTV) “Conservative MPs slammed Prime Minister Mark Carney Monday over dismissive comments he made recently when asked about stalled trade talks with U.S. President Donald Trump. While taking questions from reporters in Johannesburg on Sunday, Carney was asked when he last spoke with Trump and replied, “Who cares?” “I look forward to speaking with the president soon, but I don’t have a burning issue to speak with the president about right now,” he said. “When America wants to come back and have conversations on the trade side, we will have those discussions.”” This comes even as the latest information is given that another impeachment trial is awaiting President Trump before Christmas. As such the ‘who Cares’ seems spot on, whatever deal can be made will not happen this year and in the meantime Prime Minister Carney has already two victories and whilst the Star (that one from Toronto) gives us (at https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/while-an-erratic-trump-ignores-canada-carney-quietly-cements-international-investments-elbows-up-indeed/article_bdbeeb99-7691-4118-8c09-dff12fa0927e.html) ‘While an erratic Trump ignores Canada, Carney quietly cements international investments. Elbows up, indeed’ where we see “It’s been about 10 months since U.S. President Donald Trump declared economic war on Canada, and there has been no progress in ending the debacle. That failure is not Canada’s fault. Trump is playing another of his games with us, this time giving us the silent treatment.” In the meantime Canada and its Prime Minister got to work (elbows up they call it) and made deals with world leaders attending the G20, that is that trade show that President Trump ignored, or he misplaced his invitation. But he is not there, as such Canada is making deals. So whilst the haters and devoted ‘Conservative Party members’ call ‘Wasting money’ This PM is making deals that will push new boundaries in revenue for Canada, making it a profitable country for its citizens. So whilst the the Trump administration is currently keen to scrap the trilateral trade deal among the U.S., Canada and Mexico, Canada is making new deals with Mexico that makes America (kinda) irrelevant. Its all in a days work for the formerly known Marky Mark of the British bank. And as a former Governor of the British Bank he knows who is guarding the coffers of their respective nations and Canada is making headway to nearly all of them. Another loss for America.

And the Financial Post (at https://financialpost.com/news/carney-world-us-stresses-new-ties) gives us ‘Carney says world can move on without U.S., stresses new ties’ with the supporting text “Prime Minister Mark Carney said the world can make progress on a range of issues without the U.S., and that consensus reached at a Group of 20 leaders’ meeting in Johannesburg this weekend carries weight despite a boycott by United States President Donald Trump’s administration.” And as I personally see it, the G20 that could have ‘saved’ America in more than one way is now the stage where America is made irrelevant. OK, irrelevant is perhaps a bit strong, but the setting that these 18 world leaders are happy not having to dance with President Trump is almost the centre stage as the media gives this to us. As such we are given “After a Nov. 20 meeting in Abu Dhabi with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, the Gulf country committed to investing $70 billion in Canada, Carney said, without providing specific details. That’s the biggest investment pledge Canada has ever received. “We’re signing new deals and finding new investors to fuel our plans for Canada’s economic ambition,” he said. “We’ll expand trade and catalyze investment in increased partnerships across a range of areas from AI to energy in the Indo-Pacific and Europe.”” As I see it, it is the better part of a $140 billion deal that America missed out on, and they could really afford losing this much (that part was sarcasm for those who fail to recognise it). As I personally see it, Mark Carney came at the right time and now Canada is the frontrunner as an investment partner. As investments I can see one other place. Oracle, as I see it Oracle has only 2 data centers and they will need a third one if I understand the settings from America correctly. Microsoft has to open its data-gates to Federal authority and when that really happens many will scream and seek other venues outside of the US and Oracle might be the better solution there too. So as I see it, there is plenty of investment to come and that would never have happened under Pierre Poilievre, so he can campaign all he wants, but the Canadian people are on to him and he doesn’t stand a chance against Mark Carney. So there is a larger setting where America is becoming irrelevant and mostly done by there own actions and Mark Carney saw the opportunity for Canadians and he is grabbing that with both hands. 

So the haters can throw whatever they want on social media, but we all know better (even the Commonwealthian people outside of Canada) Carney is gold, he is the Rockstar of Canada, even Stevie Nicks and Celine Dion agree (my presumption) and as we see this, he is also becoming the Rock of Stars in the global political community, they all want their selfie with him.

Have a great day, I am closing in on the midweek, a mere 11 hours to go.

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November 24, 2025 · 20:46

The call of reality

That is what seems to be happening. The first one was a simple message that Oracle is doom headed according to Wall Street (I don’t agree with that), but it made me take another look and to make it simpler I will look at the articles chronologically. 

The first one was the Wall Street Journal (4 days ago), with ‘Oracle Was an AI Darling on Wall Street. Then Reality Set In’ (at https://www.wsj.com/tech/oracle-was-an-ai-darling-on-wall-street-then-reality-set-in-0d173758) with “Shares have lost gains from a September AI-fueled pop, and the company’s debt load is growing” with the added “Investors nervous about the scale of capital that technology companies are plowing into artificial-intelligence infrastructure rattled stocks this week. Oracle has been one of the companies hardest hit” but here is the larger setting. As I see it, these stocks are manipulated by others, whomever they are Hedge funds and their influencers and other parties calling for doom all whilst the setting of the AI bubble are exploiters by unknown gratifiers of self. I know that this sounds ominous and non specific, but there is no way most of us (including people with a much higher degree of economic knowledge than I will ever have) And the stage of bubble endearing is out there (especially in Wall Street) then 14 hours ago we get ‘Oracle (ORCL): Evaluating Valuation After $30B AI Cloud Win and Rising Credit Risk Concerns’ (at https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nyse-orcl/oracle/news/oracle-orcl-evaluating-valuation-after-30b-ai-cloud-win-and/amp) where we see “Recent headlines have only amplified the spotlight on Oracle’s cloud ambitions, but the past few months have been rocky for its share price. After a surge tied to AI-driven optimism, Oracle’s 1-month share price return of -29.9% and a year-to-date gain of 19.7% tell the story: momentum has faded sharply in the near term. However, the 1-year total shareholder return still sits at 4.4% and its five-year total return remains a standout at nearly 269%. This combination of volatility and long-term outperformance reflects a market grappling with Oracle’s rapid strategic shift, balance sheet risks, and execution on new contracts.” I am not debating the numbers, but no one is looking to the technology behind this. As I see it places like Snowflake and Oracle have the best technology for these DML and LLM solutions (OK, there are a few more) and for now, whomever has the best technology will survive the bubble and whomever is betting on that AI bubble going their way needs Oracle at the very least and not in a weakened state, but that is merely my point of view. So last we get the Motley Fool a mere 7 hours ago giving us ‘Billionaire David Tepper Dumped Appaloosa’s Stake in Oracle and Is Piling Into a Sector That Wall Street Thinks Will Outperform’ (at https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/11/23/billionaire-david-tepper-dumped-appaloosas-stake-i/) we see “Billionaire David Tepper’s track record in the stock market is nothing short of remarkable. According to CNBC, the current owner of the Carolina Panthers pro football team launched his hedge fund Appaloosa Management in 1993 and generated annual returns of at least 25% for decades. Today, Tepper still runs Appaloosa, but it is now a family office, where he manages his own wealth.” Now we get the crazy stuff (this usually happens when I speculate) So this gives us a person like David Tepper who might like to exploit Oracle to make it seem more volatile and exploit a shortening of options to make himself (a lot) richer. And when clever people become self managing, they tend to listen to their darker nature. Now I could be all wrong, but when Wall Street is going after one of the most innovative and secure companies on the planet just to satisfy the greed of Wall Street, I get to become a little agitated. So could it all be that Oracle was drawn into the ‘fab’ and lost it? No, they clearly stated that there would be little return until 2028, a decent prognosis and with the proper settings of DML and LLM finding better and profitable ways by 2027 to find revenue making streams is a decent target to have and it is seemingly an achievable one. In the meantime IBM can figure out (evolve) their shallow circuits and start working on their trinary operating system. I have no idea where they are at present, but the idea of this getting ready for a 2040 release is not out of the question. In the meantime Oracle can fill the void for millions of corporations that already have data, warehouses and form settings. Another are plenty of other providers of data systems.

So when we are given “The tech company Oracle is not one of the “Magnificent Seven,” but it has emerged as a strong beneficiary of artificial intelligence (AI), thanks to its specialized data centers that contain huge clusters of graphics processing units (GPUs) to train large language models (LLMs) that power AI.

In September, the company reported strong earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2026, along with blowout guidance. Remaining performance obligations increased 359% year over year to $455 billion, as it signed data center agreements with major hyperscalers, including OpenAI.”

So whilst we see “Oracle is not one of the “Magnificent Seven,” but it has emerged as a strong beneficiary of artificial intelligence (AI)” we need to take a different look at this. Oracle was never a strong beneficiary of AI, it was a strong vendor with data technologies and AI is about data and in all of this, someone is ‘fitting’ Oracle into a stage that everyone just blatantly accepts without asking too many questions (example the Media). With the additional “to train large language models (LLMs) that power AI”, the hidden gem is in the second statement. AI and LLM are not the same, You only partially train real AI, this is different and those ‘magnificent seven’ want you to look away from that. So, when was the last time that you actually read that AI does not yet exist? That is the created bubble and players like Oracle are indifferent to this, unless you spike the game. It has stocks, it has options and someone is turning influencers to their own use of greed. And I object to this, Oracle has proven itself for decades, longer than players like Microsoft and Google. So when we see ‘Buying the sector that Wall Street is bullish on’ we see another hidden setting. The bullishness of Wall Street. Do you think they don’t know that AI is a non-existing setting? So why go after the one technology that will make data work? That setting is centre in all this and I object those who go after Oracle. So when you answer the call of reality consider who is giving you the AI setting and who is giving you the DML/LLM stage of a data solution that can help your company.

Have a great day we are seemingly all on Monday at present. 

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November 23, 2025 · 10:29

Driving the herds

OK, I am over my anger spat from yesterday (still growling though) and in other news I noticed that Grok (Musk’s baby) cannot truly deal with multidimensional viewpoints, which is good to know. But today I tried to focus on Oracle. You know whatever AI bubble will hit us (and it will) Oracle shouldn’t be as affected as some of the Data vendors who claim that they have the golden AI child in their crib (a good term to use a month before Christmas). I get that some people are ‘sensitive’ to doom speakers we see all over the internet and some will dump whatever they have to ‘secure’ what they have, but the setting of those doom speakers is to align THEIR alleged profit needs to others dumping their future. I do not agree. You see Oracle, Snowflake and a few others offer services and they are captured by others. Snowflake has a data setting that can be used whether AI comes or not, whether people need it or not. And they will be hurt when the firms go ‘belly up’ because it will count as lost revenue. But that is all it is, lost revenue. And yes both will be hurting when the AI bubble comes crashing down on all of us. But the stage that we see is that they will skate off the dust (in one case snow) and that is the larger picture. So I took a look at Oracle and behold on Simple Wall Street we get ‘Oracle (ORCL) Is Down 10.8% After Securing $30 Billion Annual Cloud Deal – Has The Bull Case Changed?’ (At https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nyse-orcl/oracle/news/oracle-orcl-is-down-108-after-securing-30-billion-annual-clo) With these sub-line points:

  • Oracle recently announced a major cloud services contract worth US$30 billion annually, set to begin generating revenue in fiscal 2028 and nearly tripling the size of its existing cloud infrastructure business.
  • This deal offers Oracle significantly greater long-term growth visibility and serves as a major endorsement of the company’s aggressive cloud and artificial intelligence strategy, even as investors remain focused on rising debt and credit risks.
  • We’ll examine how this multi-billion-dollar cloud contract could reshape Oracle’s investment narrative, particularly given its bold AI infrastructure expansion.

So they triple their ‘business’ and they lose 10.8%? It leads to questions. As I personally see it, Wall Street is trying to insulate themselves from the bubble that other (mostly) software vendors bring to the table. And Simply Wall Street gives us “To believe in Oracle as a shareholder right now is to trust in its transformation into a major provider of cloud and AI infrastructure to sustain growth, despite high debt and reliance on major AI customers. The recent announcement of a US$30 billion annual cloud contract brings welcome long-term visibility, but it does not change the near-term risk: heavy capital spending and dependence on sustained AI demand from a small set of large clients remain the central issues for the stock.” And I can get behind that train of thought, although I think that Oracle and a few others are decently protected from that setting. No matter how the non existent AI goes, DML needs data and data needs secure and reliable storage. So in comes Oracle in plenty of these places and they do their job. If 90% business goes boom, they will already have collected on these service terms for that year at least, 3-5 years if they were clever. So no biggy, Collect on 3-5 years is collected revenue, even if that firm goes bust after 30 days, they might get over it (not really). 

And then we get two parts “Oracle Health’s next-generation EHR earning ONC Health IT certification stands out. This development showcases Oracle’s commitment to embedding AI into essential enterprise applications, which supports a key catalyst: broadening the addressable market and stickiness of its cloud offerings as adoption grows across sectors, particularly healthcare. In contrast, investors should be aware that the scale of Oracle’s capital commitment brings risks that could magnify if…” OK, I am on board with these settings. I kinda disagree, but then I lack economic degrees and a few people I do know will completely see this part. You see, I personally see “Oracle’s commitment to embedding AI into essential enterprise applications” as a plus all across the board. Even if I do believe that AI doesn’t exist, the data will be coming and when it is ironed out, Oracle was ready from the get go (when they translate their solutions to a trinary setting) and I do get (but personally disagree) with “the scale of Oracle’s capital commitment brings risks that could magnify if”. Yes, there is risk but as I see it Oracle brings a solution that is applicable to this frontier, even if it cannot be used to its full potential at present. So there is a risk, but when these vendors pay 5 years upfront, it becomes instant profit at no use of their clouds. You get a cloud with a population of 15 million, but it is inhabited by 1.5 million. As such they have a decade of resources to spare. I know that things are not that simple and there is more, but what I am trying to say is that there is a level of protection that some have and many will not. Oracle is on the good side of that equation (as is Snowflake, Azure, iCloud, Google Gemini and whatever IBM has, oh, and the chips of nVidia are also decently safe until we know how Huawei is doing. 

And the setting we are also given “Oracle’s outlook forecasts $99.5 billion in revenue and $25.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on annual revenue growth of 20.1% and an earnings increase of $12.9 billion from current earnings of $12.4 billion” matters as Oracle is predicting that revenue comes calling in 2028, so anyone trying to dump their stock now is as stupid as they can be. They are telling their shareholders that for now revenue is thimble sized, but after 2028 which is basically 24 months away, the big guns come calling and the revenue pie is being shared with its shareholders. So you do need brass balls to do this and you should not do this with your savings, that is where hedge funds come in, but the view is realistic. The other day I saw Snowflake use DML in the most innovative way (one of their speakers) showed me a new lost and found application and it was groundbreaking. Considering the amounts of lost and found is out there at airports and bus stations, they showed me how a setting of a month was reduced to a 10 minute solution. As I saw it, places like Dubai, London and Abu Dhabi airport could make is beneficial for their 90 million passengers is almost unheard of and I am merely mentioning three of dozens upon dozens of needy customers all over the world. A direct consequence of ‘AI’ particulars (I still think it is DML with LLM) but no matter the label, it is directly applicable to whomever has such a setting and whilst we see the stage of ‘most usage fails in its first instance’ this is not one of them and as such in those places Oracle/Snowflake is a direct win. A simple setting that has groundbreaking impact. So where is the risk there? I know places have risks, but to see this simple application work shows that some are out there showing the good fight on an achievable setting and no IP was trained upon and no class actions are to follow. I call that a clear win.

So, before you sell your stock in Oracle like a little girl, consider what you have bought and consider who wants you to sell, and why, because they are not telling you this for your sake, they have their own sake. I am not telling you to sell anything. I am merely telling you to consider what you bought and what actual risks you are running if you sell before 2029. It is that simple.

Have a great day (yes Americans too, I was angry yesterday), These bastards in Vancouver and Toronto are still enjoying their Saturday. 

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November 19, 2025 · 16:47

I lost my marbles

Like Poodles, I seem to have misplaced my marbles. AKA I lost them completely. Now only 9 hours ago I shouted that I am sick of the AI bubble, but a few minutes ago I got called back into that fray. You see, I was woken up by an image.

This is the image and it gives us ‘Oracle’s $300bn OpenAI deal is now valued at minus $74bn’ there is no way this is happening. You see, I have clearly stated that the bubble is coming. But in this, Oracle has a set state of technologies it is contributing. As such, where is the bubble blowing up in the face of OpenAI and Microsoft? In this, the Financial Times (at https://www.ft.com/content/064bbca0-1cb2-45ab-85f4-25fdfc318d89) is giving us ‘Oracle is already underwater on its ‘astonishing’ $300bn OpenAI deal’. So where is the damager to the other two? We are given “OK, yes, it’s a gross simplification to just look at market cap. But equivalents to Oracle shares are little changed over the same period (Nasdaq Composite, Microsoft, Dow Jones US Software Index), so the $60bn loss figure is not entirely wrong. Oracle’s “astonishing quarter” really has cost it nearly as much as one General Motors, or two Kraft Heinz. Investor unease stems from Big Red betting a debt-financed data farm on OpenAI, as MainFT reported last week. We’ve nothing much to add to that report other than the below charts showing how much Oracle has, in effect, become OpenAI’s US public market proxy:” There might be some loss on Oracle (if that happens) and later on we were given (after a stack of graphics, see the story for that) “But Oracle is not the only laggard. Broadcom and Amazon are both down following OpenAI deal news, while Nvidia’s barely changed since its investment agreement in September. Without a share price lift, what’s the point? A combined trillion dollars of AI capex might look like commitment, but investment fashions are fickle.” And in this, I still have doubts on the reporting side of things. From my own feelings (not hard core numbers) that Oracle and Amazon are the best players to survive this as their technology is solid. When AI does come, they are likely the only two to set it right and the entire article goes out of its way to mention Microsoft. But in all this Microsoft has made significant investments in OpenAI and has rights to OpenAI’s Intellectual Property (IP). This comes down to Microsoft holding a stake in OpenAI’s for-profit arm, OpenAI Group PBC, valued at approximately $135 billion, which represents about 27% of the company. So how is Microsoft not mentioned? 

As such how come Oracle is underwater? Is it testing scuba gear? And if the article is indeed true, what is the value of OpenAI now? Because that will also drown the 27% of it (holding the name Microsoft) and that image is missing from that equation. If this is the bubble bursting, which might be true (a year before I predicted it) then it stands to rights that this is also impacting Amazon, Google, IBM, Microsoft and OpenAI. As such this article seems a little far fetched, a little immature and largely premature by now naming all the players in this game. I personally thought that Oracle would be one of the winners in all of this, or better stated a smallest loser in this multi trillion bubble.

So what gives?
And in this I might be incorrect and largely missing the point, but a write-off to the amount of nearly half a trillion dollars has more underwriters and mentioning merely Oracle is a little far fetched, no matter how fashionable they all seem to be and for that matter as Microsoft has been ‘advocating’ their copilot program, how deep are they in? Because the Oracle write-off will be squarely in the face of that Nadella dude. As he seemingly already missed the builder.ai setting, this might be the one ending his career and whatever comes next might want to commit suicide instead of accepting whatever promotion is coming his way. (I know it is a dark setting) but the image is a little disconcerting at present. And the images that the Financial Times give us, like the Hyperscaler capex, show Microsoft to be 3 times in deeper water than Oracle is, so why aren’t they mentioned in the text? And in those same images Amazon are in way over their heads and that is merely the beginning of a bubble going sideways on everyone. As such, is this a storm in a cup of water? If that is so, why is Oracle underwater? And there is ample reason to see me as a non-economist, I never was on wanted to be one. But the media as gives raises questions. And I agree, Oracle is on a long way to break even, but if they do not, neither are Amazon, Microsoft and OpenAi and that part is seemingly missing too. If anything, Larry Ellison could pay the shortcomings with his petty cash (he allegedly has 250,000 million) that is how own die and the others won’t even come near that amount. 

So whilst we wait for someone to make sense of this all, we need to walk carefully and not panic, because these settings tend to be the stage where the panicky people sell what they can for dimes to the dollar and that is not how I want to see players like Microsoft jump that shark. This is not any kind of anti-Microsoft deal, it is them calling the others not innovative whilst there isn’t a innovative bone in that cadaver. So whilst we want to call the cards. The only thing I do is calling the cards of the Financial Times and likewise reporting media calling out the missing settings of loss towards Microsoft and OpenAI. It is the best I can do, I know an economic major who could easily do that, but he is busy running Canada at the moment.

Have a great day and I apologize for causing an optional panic, which was not my intention.

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November 11, 2025 · 17:58

TYS squared

That is the setting, but before we go there, a little reminder from past blogs. Just so you know I wasn’t kidding. On January 29th I wrote ‘And the bubble said ‘Bang’’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/29/and-the-bubble-said-bang/) as well as ‘What do bubbles do?’ on November 1st 2025 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/11/01/what-do-bubbles-do/), so this is not out of the blue. Yet several facts were revealed which requires me to give you the setting of power shortages which I raised in ‘As limits are reached’ on June 29th 2024 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/06/29/as-limits-are-reached/), so this are the settings I warned people about and now we see

So, it started today with a person named Torben Hansen on LinkedIn giving us “Oracle just shelved a €2 billion Al datacenter project. Amazon paused €7 billion in investments. Not because of tech limitations or lack of capital – but because they can’t get electricity. In Frankfurt – Europe’s digital heartland – new Al data centers face 8-13 year wait times for grid connections. Here’s the brutal reality:” as well as “Germany’s electricity: €0.25-0.30/kWh vs €0.05-0.07 in Asia (3-6x more expensive) GPT-4 training consumed 51,773+ MWh of energy One datacenter powering Al needs 4 gigawatts
Additional cost per training run: €500M+
Germany’s Al ranking: Dropped from #3 to #9 globally in 2 years
Imagine having world-class talent, billions in investment, and world-leading research – then telling companies “sorry, we don’t have the power lines.” That’s Germany in 2025.
While the US adds 400+ MW of Al capacity annually, Germany accepts ZERO new data centers until 2030. The result? Our brightest minds migrate. Research stays. Jobs leave.”

So, the ‘presentation’ reflects what I foretold. But now the sad part, there is no news on any of this. There is even a ‘Google set to reveal “largest ever” investment plan for Germany – report’ a mere 4 days ago (at https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/google-set-to-reveal-largest-ever-investment-plan-for-germany-report/) this is why I check EVERYTHING. The setting from both Amazon and Oracle cannot be vetted, but a mere 4 days ago (as well) we are given “But Oracle stock is now trading down around 25% from its 52-week high as investors grow critical of artificial intelligence (AI) spending. Oracle is not alone. Last week, Meta Platforms sold off because investors didn’t like how its operating expenses were outpacing revenue growth.” That too was predicted and it is the effect of a bubble, so to say the stock is going bubblelicious. But that does not reflect on who is giving us the facts and who is giving us the runaround. I am trying to give you the facts. The second fact that seems to ‘contradict’ the ‘facts’ by Torben Hansen as the DCD gives us (at previous given address) “Amazon Web Services (AWS), meanwhile, committed some $9.44bn to its Frankfurt cloud region in June 2024, and a further $8.47bn to establishing a European sovereign cloud in the country, which was launched as a separate entity earlier this year.” So something is amiss. I still believe in the predictions I gave you all, but a bubble tends to be presented at the moment it goes boom. Yet a week ago (at https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/lacking-grid-access-major-obstacle-germanys-energy-transition-technologies-associations) we are given ‘Lacking grid access major obstacle for Germany’s energy transition technologies – associations’ with “Germany needs to “significantly improve access to grid connections” for electric vehicle charging stations, storage facilities and large heat pumps, a group of 13 associations from the energy, housing and consumer protection sectors said in a joint appeal. “Industry, commerce and private households are ready to invest, build and transform,” the group wrote. “But without access to a modern grid infrastructure, many projects remain unimplemented.”” As well as “Germany’s lagging electricity grid expansion remains a key hurdle for the shift to renewables. Electricity retailers have warned that significant delays in connecting EV charging points and solar PV installations to the local power grid are putting the brakes on the country’s energy transition.” So there are issues, but I do not see any shortages that would halt data centers and Oracle gave us in may that millions are invested in both Germany and the Netherlands. I reckon that there would be clear signals if the presented facts were actually true. So whilst I am really reeling for a “told you so” setting, even a squared setting of told you so, there is a larger setting that requires all our attentions. The verification and validation of presented facts requires checking at nearly every bend, curve and turn of the way. So whilst the cartoon image is highly entertaining, it is all it is, entertaining. 

But I do like to check all the ins and outs of statements thrown my way and in this case I though I would get to loudly go ‘told you so’ and in the end I cannot yet do that and that is the setting that I face today. I till believe that this bubble comes crashing down, but in its own right, not by presenting (what I perceive to be) false settings towards at least one titan in the IT business who has always steered a straight course. 

And in the final setting we see that “hyperscale centers requiring 100 megawatts or more”, how much more is really depending on the centre, but to set the power ‘demand’ to 40 times that for an AI centre becomes debatable, especially as both the Netherlands and Germany have a good grasp on the energy they have and what is required. So I am seeing all kinds of red flags at present. And I still have the ‘told you so’ setting because verification and validation are pretty important markers in the AI field. So the next move is on the Media and to run down the truth of both German energy as well as Amazon and Oracle, but that is merely my point of view. Have a great day.

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October 23, 2025 · 04:51

AI at whose footstep?

That is the setting I saw mere hours ago. Should you think it is all a ‘fab’ you might be right. I haven’t ben able to verify this, but the setting is too large to explain in mere thoughts. You see, the story starts with ‘The US Should Reconsider Its AI Chips Deal With The UAE’ (at https://www.eurasiareview.com/22102025-the-us-should-reconsider-its-ai-chips-deal-with-the-uae-oped/) where we are given “In October 2025, the U.S. government granted Nvidia the export license to ship tens of billions of dollars of cutting-edge AI GPUs to the UAE, the deal was finally agreed upon after long debate about its impact on the U.S national security, because of the fear that these chips could be leaked to China, and was also surrounded by a controversy of the UAE using its financial networks to influence Trump to move on with it.” I personally think it is a silly setting, but who am I? But that wasn’t the whole story, it is ‘enhanced’ with “Given the UAE’s poor human rights record and its destabilizing role in the Middle East, it poses serious risks when providing it with this powerful technology. It’s morally imperative for the U.S. to reconsider this deal and place limits on it to ensure it will not be utilized to harm innocent people.” Huh? Poor Human Rights? On what evidence? The UAE is one of the safest countries in the world. Tourism is at an all time high and crime is at an all time low. We are given these settings as there are accusations against Sudan as per 2023 and at present no evidence has been given, the media seems to love the HR records, but it is nearly always devoid of factual evidence. 

Yet the overwhelming abuse (by America) is shown with “While the deal makes it clear that these chips will not be handed to the UAE but will be operated by U.S. companies that have data center in the country, the U.S. should still ensure that this deal—aimed at helping the UAE establish the largest AI campus outside the United States—does not contribute to further human rights violations or war crimes. To prevent misuse, the agreement should include binding conditions prohibiting the use of U.S.-supplied chips in developing AI systems or military technologies for unlawful or unethical purposes, and in particular, blocking the reach of this technology to the UAE’s allied militias.  Furthermore, an independent oversight mechanism is urgently needed to monitor compliance and hold the UAE accountable to these standards.” I have a problem with “to further human rights violations or war crimes” so what EXACTLY is America thinking it is doing? As I see it, America is setting up dat centers in the UAE, letting the UAE pay for them whilst they are American ‘Data Forts’, so at what point will people consider that America is selling the UAE an Edsel? And what about that (so called) “independent oversight mechanism is urgently needed to monitor compliance and hold the UAE accountable to these standards” There is something amiss in this equation and I am not sure if I can stomach such activities (especially as America is currently trying to annex Canada) then there is the deployment of national guards all over America as well as deploy ICE like bank robbers going at their own population. So where is the Human Rights watch in this setting?

So as I see it, the following passage should be read ‘differently’, it is “AI chips are considered essential hardware for training AI models and conducting research in the field of AI. Previously, the U.S. adopted the AI diffusion rule, balancing national security and human rights, and placed strong restrictions on exporting chips to countries with poor human rights records. This rule, which was previously rescinded, is not included in the recently issued America First AI action plan.” As I personally see it, the setting of “AI chips are considered essential hardware for training AI models” which is a truth, but the lager setting is that this so called training data requires verification and at what point is this data ‘accidentally’ transported to America grounds? As I see it this UAE data is the property of the UAE, optionally set in UAE population or economic data. So what assurances does the UAE have that this data remains in the UAE? So whilst the UAE pays for it all, America corporations grow and handle more and more foreign data? No wonder Microsoft wants in (a speculative jab) and at present I see no handles on keeping the UAE data safe in the UAE and the setting of “the Abu Dhabi-based sovereign wealth fund with over $280 billion, and G42, the AI hub founded in 2018, owned and chaired by the National Security Advisor of the UAE, Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who is also its controlling shareholder” does not inspire confidence in this setting. This is not in any way a reflection on Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, but does he realise that the UAE data is the real treasure that America is speculatively after?

As I personally see it, the Human Rights part was part of the deception to put people on their defense and it has no bearing on the deal. There is even a ‘reference’ to a story in the Africa report and whilst were might take it seriously (you shouldn’t) the reference that “a private security firm based in the United Arab Emirates” with a simple setting pointing towards a passport stamp. Is that the foundation of this Mohamed Suliman? He might have an Engineering degree from the University of Khartoum, but the setting of evidence is as I (personally) see it rather alien to him. I blew that part apart in under 10 minutes and what does matter is that there are questions on what the UAE is allowing for and the fear that the stage of leaked to China is merely limited to the way America is conducting business. It should have China howling with laughter as it basically shows how desperate America has become. Just a small setting that is overlooked here.

As I personally see it, if it was about the UAE than the story would have reflected on how this IT dealer by the name of Larry Ellison (Oracle) had come to the UAE taking Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan on a personal tour of his AI Rolls Royce at 100 Milverton Drive, Mississauga (an assumed location where it could be held), did this happen? The story does not show this, and it neither show what AI settings were shown (a prerequisite that an AI engineer) would cherish, none of that. A mere dubious Human Rights setting, a setting that might have been left to a non-engineer. 

So whilst we like to mull over the stage of “could readily be transferred to support its regional allies and militias to wage more wars and massacres” all whilst China is already decades ahead of others and it could not be served with evidence, merely assumptions. So did I give you enough food for thought? So what does this story serve? As I see it a lot of references without evidence of the level it might require. The only thing I see is “operated by U.S. companies that have data center in the country” so at what point are the needs of the government of the UAE being served? Especially as it is handed to us with the $280 billion price tag, but how much of this setting is actually charged to the UAE? Even that is missing, so what are we supposed to think? 

Have a great day and consider that American coffee is optionally served in the UAE with a massive markup.

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October 20, 2025 · 12:52

The start of something bad

That is how I saw the news (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/tech/dubais-10000-ai-firms-goal-to-redefine-competitiveness-power-uaes-startup-vision) with the headline ‘Dubai’s 10,000 AI-firms goal to redefine competitiveness,  power UAE’s startup vision’ there is always a risk when you start a new startup, but the drive to something that doesn’t even exist is downright folly (as I see it) and now it is driven to a 10,000 times setting of folly. That is what I perceive. But lets go through the setting to explain what I am seeing.

First there is the novel setting and it is one that needs explaining. You see AI doesn’t yet exist, even what we have now is merely DML (Deeper Machine Learning) and it is accompanied at times with LLM (Large Language Models) and these solutions can actually be great, but the foundations of AI are not yet met and take it from me it matters. Actually never take my word, so lets throw some settings at you. First there is ‘Deloitte to pay money back to Albanese government after using AI in $440,000 report’ and then we get to ‘Lawyer caught using AI-generated false citations in court case penalised in Australian first’ (sources for both is the Guardian). There is something behind this. The setting of verification is adamant in both, You see, whatever we now call AI isn’t it and whatever data is thrown at it is taken almost literally at face value. Data Verification is overlooked at nearly every corner and then we get to Microsoft with its ‘support’ of builder.ai with the mention that it was goo. It lasted less than a month and the ‘backing’ of a billion dollar went away like snow in a heatwave. They used 700 engineers to do what could not be done (as I personally see it). So we have these settings that is already out there. 

Then (two weeks ago) the Guardian gives us (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/08/bank-of-england-warns-of-growing-risk-that-ai-bubble-could-burst) ‘Bank of England warns of growing risk that AI bubble could burst’ with the byline “Possibility of ‘sharp market correction has increased’, says Bank’s financial policy committee” now consider this setting with the valuation of 10,000 firms getting a rather large ‘market correction’ and I think that this happens when it is the least opportune for the UAE. This take me to the old expression we had in the 80’s “You can lose your money in three ways, first there are women, which is the prettiest way to lose your money, then through gambling, which is the quickest way to lose your money and third way is thought IT, which is the surest way to lost your money” and now I would like to add “the fourth way is AI, which is both quick and sure to lose your money” that is the prefix to the equation. And the setting we aren’t given is set out in several pieces all over the place. One of them was given to us in ABC News (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-20/ai-crypto-bubbles-speculative-mania/105884508) with ‘If AI and crypto aren’t bubbles, we could be in big trouble’ where we see “What if the trillions of dollars placed on those bets turn out to be good investments? The disruption will be epic, and terrible. A lot of speculative manias are just fun for a while and then the last in lose their shirts, not much harm done, like the tulips of 1635, and the comic book and silver bubbles of the late 1980s. Sometimes the losses are so great that banks go broke as well, which leads to a frozen financial system, recession and unemployment, as in 1929 and 2008.” As I personally see it, America is going all in as they are already beyond broke, so they have nothing to lose, but the UAE and Saudi Arabia have plenty to lose and the American first are good to squander whatever these two have. I reckon that Oracle has its fallback position so it is largely of, but OpenAI is willing to chance it all. And that is the American portfolio, Microsoft and a few others. They are playing bluff with as I see it, the wrong players and when others are ignoring the warnings of the Bank of England they merely get what is coming for them and it is a game I do not approve of, because it is based on the bluff that gets us ‘we are too big to fail’ and I do not agree, but they will say that it is all based on retirement numbers and other ‘needly’ things. This is why America needs Canada to become the 51st state so desperately, they are (as I personally see it) ready to use whatever troll army they have to smear Canada. But I am not having it and as I see “Dubai’s bold target to attract 10,000 artificial intelligence firms by 2030 is evolving from vision to execution, signaling a new phase in the emirate’s transformation into a global technology powerhouse. As a follow-up to earlier announcements positioning the UAE as the “Startup Capital of the World,” recent developments in AI infrastructure, capital inflows, and global partnerships show how this goal is being operationalised — potentially reshaping Dubai’s economic structure and reinforcing its competitive edge in the global digital economy.” I believe that those behind this are having the best interests at heard for the Emirati, but I do not trust the people behind this drive (outside of the UAE). I believe that this bubble will burst after the funds are met with smiles only for these people to go out of business with a bulky severance check. It is almost like the role Ryan Gosling played in the Big Short where Jared Vennett receives a bonus of $47 million for profits made on his CDSs. It feels almost too alike. And I feel I have to speak up. Now, if someone can sink my logic, I am fine with that, but let those running to this future verify whatever they have and not merely accept what is said. I am happy to be wrong but the setting feels off (by a lot) and I rather be wrong then be silent on this, because as I see it, when there is a ‘market correction’ of $2,000,000,000,000 you can consider yourself sold down the river because there is a cost of such a correction and it should 100% be on the American shores and 0% of the Arabic, Commonwealth or European shores. But that is merely my short sighted view on the matter. 

So when we get to “Omar Sultan Al Olama, Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence, Digital Economy, and Remote Work Applications, said the goal reflects the UAE’s determination to lead globally in frontier technology. “Dubai’s target to attract 10,000 AI companies over the next five years is not a dream — it is a commitment to building the world’s most dynamic and future-ready digital economy,” he said. “We already host more than 1,500 pure AI companies — the highest number in the region — but this is just the beginning. Our strategy is to bring in creators and producers of technology, not just users. That’s how we sustain competitiveness and shape the industries of tomorrow.”” I am slightly worried, because there is an impact of these 1,500 companies. Now, be warned there are plenty of great applications of DML and LLM and these firms should be protected. But the setting of 10,000 AI companies worry me, as AI doesn’t yet exist and the stage for Agentic programming is clear and certain. I would like to rephrase this into “We should keep a clear line of achievements in what is referred to as AI and what AI companies are supposed to see as clear achievements” This requires explanation as I see whatever is called as AI as NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) and that is currently the impact of DML and LLM and I have seen several good projects but that is set onto a stage that has a definite pipeline of achievements and interests parties. And for the most the threshold is a curve of verifiable data. That data is scrutinized to a larger degree and tends to be (at times) based on the first legacy data. It still requires cleaning but to a smaller degree to dat that comes from wherever. 

So do not dissuade from your plans to enter the AI field, but be clear about what it is based on and particularly the data that is being used. So have a great day and as we get to my lunch time there is ample space for that now. Enjoy your day.

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October 13, 2025 · 07:06

Just like Soap

Perhaps you remember the 80’s series soap. Someone made a sitcom of the most hilarious settings and took it up a notch, the series was called soap and people loved it, it did nearly everything right, but over time this bubble went, just like all the other soap bubbles tend to go and that is OK, the made their mark and we felt fine. There is another bubble. It is not as good. There is the mortgage bubble, the housing bubble (they were not the same), the economy bubble and all these bubbles come with an aftermath. Now we see the AI bubble and I predicted this as early as January 29th of this year in ‘And the bubble said ‘Bang’’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/29/and-the-bubble-said-bang/) and my setting is that AI does not yet exist, as I saw it, for the most, it is the construct of lazy salespeople who couldn’t be bothered to do their work and created the AI ‘Fab’ and hauled it over to fit their needs. Let’s be clear. There is no AI and when I use it I know that ‘the best’ I am doing is avoid a long discussion about how great DML and LLM are, because they are and it is amazing. And as these settings are correctly used, it will create millions if not billions in revenue. I got the idea to overhaul the Amazon system and let them optionally create online panels that could bank them billions, which I did in ‘Under Conceptual Construction’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/10/under-conceptual-construction/) and ‘Prolonging the idea’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/12/prolonging-the-idea/) which I wrote yesterday (almost 16 hours ago). I also gave light to an amazing lost and found idea which would cater to the needs of Airports and bus terminals. I saw that presentation and it was an amazing setting in what I still call NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) in ‘That one idea’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/09/26/that-one-idea/) these are mere settings and they could be market changes. This is the proper use of IT to the next setting of automation. But the underlying bubble still exists, I merely don’t feed that beast, so when the BBC last night gave us all ‘‘It’s going to be really bad’: Fears over AI bubble bursting grow in Silicon Valley’ almost 2 days ago (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz69qy760weo) I saw the sparkly setting of soap bubbles erupt and I thought ‘That did not take long’. My setting was that AI (the real AI as Alan Turing saw it) was not ready yet. The small setting that at least three parts in IT did not yet exist. There is the true power of Quantum computing and as I see it quantum computers are real, but they are in the early stages of development and are not yet as powerful as future versions should be and for that, so as IBM rolls out their second system on the IBM Heron platform, we are getting there. It is called the IBM’s 156-qubit IBM Quantum Heron, just don’t get your hopes up, not too many can afford that platform. IBM keels it modes and gives us that “The computer, called Starling, is set to launch by 2029. The quantum computer will reside in IBM’s new quantum data center in upstate New York and is expected to perform 20,000 more operations than today’s quantum computers” I am not holding me credit card to account to that beauty. If at all possible, the only two people on the planet that can afford that setting are Elon Musk and Larry Ellison and Larry might buy it to see Oracle power at actual quantum speed and he will do it, to see quantum speed came to him in his lifetime. The man is 81 after all (so, he is no longer a teenager), If I had that kind of money (250,000 million) I would do it to, just so to see what this world has achieved. But the article (the BBC one) gives us ““I know it’s tempting to write the bubble story,” Mr Altman told me as he sat flanked by his top lieutenants. “In fact, there are many parts of AI that I think are kind of bubbly right now.”

In Silicon Valley, the debate over whether AI companies are overvalued has taken on a new urgency. Skeptics are privately – and some now publicly – asking whether the rapid rise in the value of AI tech companies may be, at least in part, the result of what they call “financial engineering”.” And the BBC is not wrong, we had a write-off in January of a trillion dollars and a few days ago another one of 1.5 trillion dollars. I would be willing to call that ‘Financial Engineering’ and that rapid rise? Call it the greedy need of salespeople getting their audience in a frenzy 

I merely gave a few examples of what DML and LLM could achieve and getting a lost and found department set from weeks into minutes is quite the achievement and I reckon that places like JFK, Heathrow and Dubai Airport would jump at the chance to arrange a better lost and found department and they are not alone but one has to wonder how the market can write off trillions in merely two events. So when we get to

“In recent days, warnings of an AI bubble have come from the Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund, as well as JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon who told the BBC “the level of uncertainty should be higher in most people’s minds”. And here, in what is often considered the tech capital of the world, concerns are growing. At a panel discussion at Silicon Valley’s Computer History Museum this week, early AI entrepreneur Jerry Kaplan told a packed audience he has lived through four bubbles. He’s especially concerned now given the magnitude of money on the table as compared to the dot-com boom. There’s so much more to lose. “When [the bubble] breaks, it’s going to be really bad, and not just for people in AI,” he said.”

He is not wrong. Consider the next one amounting to a speculated two trillion (or $2,000,000,000,000) when it hits, it could wipe out retirement savings of nearly everyone for years. So how do you feel about your retirement being written off for decades? When you are 80+ and you have millions upon millions you are just fine and that is merely 2-5 people, the other 8,200,000,000 people? The young will be fine, and over 4 billion will be too young to care about their retirement, but the rest? Good luck I say.

So what will happen to Stargate ($500B) when that bubble goes? I already see it as a failure as the required power settings will not be able to fuel this, apart from the need of hundreds of validators and their systems require power too, then we see Microsoft thinking (and telling us) it is the next big thing, all whilst basic settings aren’t out yet. Did anyone see the need for Shallow Circuits? Or the applied versions of Leon Lederman? No one realizes that he held the foundational setting of AI in Quantum computing. You see (as I personally see it) AI cannot really work in Binary technology, it requires a trinary setting, a simple stage of True, False and Both. It would allow for trinary settings, because it isn’t always True or False, we learn that the hard way, but in IT we accept it. That setting will come to blow when we get to the real AI part of it and that is why I (in part) the AI coffee being served in all places. And I like my sarcasm really hot (with two raw sugar and full cream milk)

That is the setting we face and whilst some will call the BBC article ‘doom speak’ I see it for what it is, a reminder that the AI frenzy is sales driven and whilst people are eager to forget the simplest setting, the real deal of Microsoft and Builder.AI is simply the setting that at present we are confronted with IT engineers making the decisions for us and the amount of class actions coming to the world in 2027 and 2028 (optionally as early as 2026) and as some cases are drawn out even yesterday (see https://authorsguild.org/news/ai-class-action-lawsuits/ for details) you need to realise that this bubble was orchestrated and as such I like the term ‘Financial Engineering’ so be good and use the NIP setting properly and feel free to be creative, I was and gave Amazon an idea that could bank it billions. But not all ideas are golden and I am willing to see that I am not the carrier of golden ideas, the fact that someone saw the Lost and Found setting is proof of that.

Have a great day, I am 30 minutes from breakfast now, so off I go to brekkyville.

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