There are a few issues, I could sum them all up, but that is actually counter productive. You see, time does not adhere to anything, it is the big brother of nature, it creeps up on you and just when you think you have time left, it pulls the rug from under you and you have run out of time. The first example is ‘Energy shortage warnings across US’ the source does not matter (they are too busy using news as advertisement tokens) but the news can be found all over the field. And it is not merely the US, the EU (a Dutch example was given by me this year), the UK as well as several other places. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, Russia and a few other players, most are running out of energy options. There is a solution and Elon Musk and his energy solutions are part of the solution, I even gave a limelight on ‘Darkness through inaction’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/10/10/darkness-through-inaction/) on October 10th 2021 and even more around June 2020 with ‘Musings’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/06/18/musings/) there was more before that. I know Time, I have seen its many sides so I do know what running out of means. I reckon Elon Musk and others too. Driven to the next milepost they give the world more and more, but the governments and the greedy wannabe’s are making deals to take a sliver of that pie, willing to sink whatever saves them, because living in poverty is worse than death, so they will do whatever they can to stop the process, but now the energy shortages are adding up. We are running out of time and we might merely have 2 summer seasons left where EVERYONE can afford energy, after that all bets are off. So when we see the BS jerking around COP26, when we realise that we cannot evade oil and petrochemical solutions for now we see that those trying to bring us solutions are getting hindered by those who want to be in charge of it all, because energy becomes the next currency. Feel free to doubt this, but Saudi Aramco is now worth $2.3 trillion dollars making it the richest corporation on the planet. In less than three weeks it grew 15%, you still think I am full of it? And the Ukrainian mess does not help, as the EU and others refuse and ban Russian oil and gas, their situation bites more. A setting that was out in the open before the Russian situation started and it was out in the open. We merely ran out of time faster and I reckon that if the media does not openly expose those hindering some solutions are not given the limelight they deserve you will learn the hard way how expensive 2023-2024 will get. As I grew up I saw prices rise, but I never considered that essential needs like power, heating and food would become unaffordable. Time learned me that lesson the hard way. No matter how we look, we cannot see all elements coming for us and I like many (unless I sell my IP) will see heating, food, and electricity needs and like many others I will only be able to pay for two of them, so what will become out of reach for me? I cannot tell, it will be a roll of the dice.
Tag Archives: USA
Restoring Redacted Recognisance
I have been in a bit of a trance, wondering on a few items that were nagging me, that is until I saw some flamboyant article. The article is a little too Simpson tainted to be taken seriously, but there was a grain of possibility there. My What if procedures started to crush the options. It did not make me happy, because for the most, I hate the ‘What If’ statement, it is something in second grade salespeople and telemarketers. As such I tend to avoid using it, but in this case there is almost no avoiding it. In a stage where there is an optional stage of revenue that could be anywhere between $400,000,000 and $17,500,000,000 the players Amazon and Google stay away? In the first it is more tailored to Amazon, but the stages include 5G, as such Google would be equally chomping at the bit.
Now the stage is about to move to Saudi Arabia, and I do not object. In two settings they have an advantage over the other two, but that is only in two of the settings. So I was puzzled, but then a few items from LA Times to UK papers hit me and the ‘What If’ setting came back.
What If
So what if Google and Amazon just no longer have the manpower and the seniority to see what is about to escape them, it seemed so far fetched, but there was supporting evidence (of a sort) and there is no way in hell I would let Microsoft anywhere near it, I would accept a 35% payment from Saudi Arabia before I would consider a 175% from Microsoft, I am that disappointed and angry with them. And as I refocus towards Saudi Arabia I see a larger stage, one that could fir them taking a larger stake in either Amazon Luna or the Google Stadia, even as the Amazon Luna is a better fit, either will do and that solution alone should be worth well over $350,000,000, as such there is some benefit in having one buyer. Of course the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia might see that different, but that is not a given and as they get more options to diversification.
So we have an alternative stage, but the idea that the resources and brainpower of both Amazon and Google had dwindled to that degree is a little baffling. This has nothing to do with Covid. It has nothing to do with abilities. It dwindles down to two powerhouses, not taking a much better inventory of what is possible and letting it slip again and again until it is too late. Could that be the case? To be honest, I cannot tell, in the first because Sundar Pichai and Andy Jassy did not call me updating me on their HR woe’s and sorrows (and I never expect them to do that). So I am in the dark, but some others should not be and we have not heard from them have we?
So what gives? Why would either player ignore that much revenue after getting hit to such a degree? It does not make sense, but that was before we see that they face a lot of grievance in the UK, EU and US. The Republicans are willing to slice Disney whilst destroying up to 60,000 small business owners with the attacks on Disney and their IP, Google has a few issues of their own to deal with, so a holding pattern is not the weirdest idea, but in this case revenue could go to China, Saudi Arabia and other players, how does that help any of them in the US, EU or UK? And that is before someone takes a hard look at Canada, with the top 10 of wealth being occupied by banks, but that is the hidden trap, without powerful businesses these banks will falter, time has shown that again and again, so what will be left when the redaction of recognisance is takin its toll? Restoration is the one path left, but that is a window with a limited timespan, I wonder if the UK and Canada realise that there is a point of no return and the US waited too long and now when there is a stage of restoration, the republican party is having a go at one of the most powerful IP holder in history, Disney. A setting that can have only one ending and it is not a good one, as such when Disney loses its protection, the cheap solution bringers in India and China will bring their options cheaper, not better but cheaper and all whilst well over 40,000 small business owners are left with nothing, because the IP kept their business safe and that is about to change, so when that happens and other resources do not grasp the business, what do you think will happen to that $25,000,000,000,000 debt? The interest alone will pull the entire US economy under with absolutely no options to restore any option to breathe. A setting I saw coming a mile away 5 years ago when there was an option, so when the US also losses its IP and more important the two powerhouses that create IP because they no longer have resources, what happens then?
There is no what if setting here, we can just watch it unfold and I will be watching as well, because to be honest, I never expected these two players to have the IP resource lack they are currently showing. I honestly was caught be surprise (you see, it is possible to surprise me).
I wonder what Sunday brings, a hail Mary and a ZX Spectrum?
Blackmail as premeditation
These is a side to everything. Peace, War and everything in-between is in the eye of the beholder, in the wake of political needs some will say, but that too is a side of a mere point of view. So when I saw the Bloomberg article (at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-28/manchester-city-s-owner-helps-usher-more-russian-tycoons-to-uae) titled ‘Manchester City’s Owner Helps Usher More Russian Tycoons to UAE’ we see the side that many shy away from. It starts with “Sheikh Mansour also has a behind-the-scenes role that’s become increasingly important in recent months: Helping manage relationships with wealthy Russians looking to move money into the UAE, according to several people familiar with Abu Dhabi’s engagement with Russians, who requested anonymity as the information isn’t public.” With the added “Even as the U.S., EU and other countries have blitzed Russia with thousands of new financial restrictions, making it the world’s most-sanctioned nation, the UAE hasn’t imposed any. Officials in the Middle Eastern nation have taken the stance that Abu Dhabi respects international law but isn’t required to follow measures implemented by specific countries and that the UAE has the right to adopt its own policies, several people familiar with their thinking said.” It is supported by “That approach, though, has fuelled concern among some Western officials who are worried about holes in their own sanctions programs. Earlier this month, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo voiced Washington’s worries about Russian tycoons moving assets to the UAE in a call with UAE officials, two people with knowledge of the discussions said”. You see, the setting is even more different from what we see. You see, some places cannot be touched, some ships are unattainable and other material matters cannot be touched as the owners identities are hidden from view. There are two parts in all this.
In the first there is the matter of his highness Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan. He is from the UAE, he does what is best for the UAE, a Emiratian as it were (is that the right pronunciation?) The larger setting is not what he does, it is that there is no war with Russia in the UAE, more important, the blackmail grip on these oligarchs is not entirely legal. Lets look at the clear evidence. These oligarchs are Russians, they therefor embraced friendships with the ruler of that place (Vladimir Putin), this was never a crime. Then the Ukrainian issues started and the oligarchs were split in two teams (as Roman Arkadyevich Abramovich most likely would say) those who openly support Putin and those who do not. Take Roman Arkadyevich Abramovich he is also a philanthropist and the former owned of Chelsea FC (they might be the same). So are the acts against him valid? Consider what he did in the BEGINNING of the war. It casts a shadow over the acts against the oligarchs. And the demented statement by President Biden “We’re going to seize their yachts, their luxury homes, and other ill-begotten gains”, really? What laws were broken, what prosecution was not correctly made? I do not care either way, but there are laws and yes, Russia has to pay for EVERY kopek of damage that they created in Ukraine. But should the oligarchs? Perhaps those in Russia, but those abroad? Those who openly supported Putin’s war in Ukraine perhaps, the rest? I feel uncertain.
And when we reconsider “some Western officials who are worried about holes in their own sanctions programs” we see the folly of their taxation laws, the holes are large enough to park a 500 feet yacht in. Failure after failure and the entire emotional setting does not help any, mainly because the emotional setting is not a legal one and now we see that Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan has a case to present to his nation. And if this works the UAE will see another wave of long term investments. Long after the US is deserted by too many players, the UAE will hold on. Is it fair? Fair does not come into it. These oligarchs are not involved in a war, they are not involved in bombing the Ukraine. That is the Russian government, the Russian army, navy and airforce. If an oligarch is part of those, then yes, he (or she) become fair game. And should the American government object, then perhaps they can pull the papers on a place called IG Farben and certain people that were given options in the US. So how come that BASF and Siemens were allowed to continue AFTER WW2? Did they not have factories in Auschwitz? As I see it, the US does not have a billionaire problem, it has a hypocrisy problem and the refusal to overhaul tax laws is pretty much a top 3 item in American economy. As I personally see it Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan found a way to propel his nation (as a citizen), is he to blame? I do not believe that he is. Yes, some people and a lot of Ukrainians have an issue with that and I accept that the Ukrainians are not happy, they have every right to be, but laws are laws and there is a dangerous line that the west is trying to avoid. It is a dangerous line as it leads to WW3 and these nations are either fully committed or they are not. I cannot judge here, because war is a dangerous play, a World War even more so and there could be nuclear repercussions, we need to accept that and that is the red line that a lot of nations are trying to avoid. It makes perfect sense. If there is on upside to all this (the UAE) it will be that the harbour that they hand the oligarchs is also the roof that stops them from becoming a nuclear target. It could be seen by some as premeditated blackmail. Can we blame them, or blame anyone for having that thought? The UAE must do what is best for the UAE and as I see it, that is exactly what Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan seems to be doing.
Stop Stupid Spending
In light of my previous article (at https://lawlordtobe.wordpress.com/2022/03/29/a-dangerous-ploy/) ‘A dangerous ploy’, we now see the BBC giving us ‘Can the super-rich solve America’s budget problem?’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60904900) the simple short direct answer is ‘No, they cannot!’ You see, it is the American administrations who clearly overspend. When you create a $1,900,000,000,000, all whilst it represents double the amount you collect through taxation, you are the losing member of a losing party. And all the clever calculator games you play will not help you. It is a sliding scale from the decline of a decent amount of wealth deep into the debt and depth of bankruptcy is all you have to look forward to ad there is no going back from this path, the US is too deep in debt already. When it was clearly visible that the overhaul of tax laws was the only real path for over two decades, the superrich will not help them overcome anything, not even their own stupidity. So when we see “The proposal aims to capture more of the wealth created by the soaring stock market of the last few years. It targets the roughly 20,000 taxpayers in the US worth more than $100m (£76m). Investor Warren Buffett, Tesla boss Elon Musk and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos would be among those affected.” Yes you can try that approach, but in light of the money you are spending, money you do not have, it will amount to nothing. The first thing that they face is to reduce their annual budget to no more than $730,000,000,000 that is the the first thing that needs to happen, reduce it by well over 50%, that is the impact they need to face. And then those additional taxations will need to be used for 100% to reducing debt. Even then they will come up short for close to 12-15 years. Should any millionaire and billionaires have remained in the US, they could have a chance, but only if US spending goes down by well over 50% until well over 2037. That is the reality of the plight they face. So when you consider the harsh reality of “Mr Biden’s budget also calls for raising the income tax rate on households earning over $400,000 from 37% to 39.6% and increasing the tax on companies to 28%, partially reversing cuts made under the Trump administration.” It merely works if the overspending of budgets is stopped, if not this is a waste of effort and when the Americans run away from their land to try and keep what they have, we will see that zero tax havens will suddenly get an investors infuse of 200%, all whilst all this was clearly out in the open from 1999 onwards. So whilst you all consider “For the 2022 financial year, the annual deficit is projected at more than $1.2tn. Overall debt passed $30tn last month.” All whilst this administration wants to spend an additional $700,000,000,000, you see the first reality out there and it is not taxing the rich, it is controlling stupid politicians spending money they never had in the first place and it goes back to the age of Clinton, it has been going on for that long and now we see some knee jerk action that has no impact, not until the US budgets are under control. But go on, spend billions on some joke (aka USS Zumwalt class) for the amount of $4,400,000,000. And whilst we think it is cheap, consider
That it was delivered in 2016 and from then on it faced a trial of break downs and repairs, it required redeployment of weapons, the smart guns never worked and it is now a missile launcher at 500% of the price of such a ship. That is where the budgets fall short again and again and that is merely the defence budget, a budget that has shown failure after failure. All this beside the infrastructure requirements that have not been met in close to half a decade, and they now want some lame ‘tax the rich’ approach to fix it all, all whilst the spending tap is not closed by 55%-70%. And as such, the super rich will never solve this problem. Not until Washington DC wakes up and smells the junk they shovel in. So whilst we see think tank after think tank contribute colourful mentions like “America’s 400 richest families have more wealth than all 10 million of the country’s black families combined, according to a 2020 analysis by the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.” No one is asking how large the price tag of that analyses was. We see a group of people blaming a group of people all whilst they enabled all this by not overhauling tax laws, it is now well over 20 years that spending needed to be overhauled, but no, even this administration overspends by close to $1,700,000,000,000 and it does not stop with the $1.2tn deficit, the interest of $30tn is also due and there is no solution for all that, the previous leaseholders of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue made that mistake and it is about to get a hell of a lot worse, that much seems clear and when the brain drain starts in the US, whatever is left there will not be suitable or liveable, that too is a clear consequence. And it was not rocket science. When you spend more than you collect, when you spend more than you have, this happens and it is happening now and the superrich were never part of any solution, their spending and their own tax system was, and it has been clearly out there since 1999.
And when you wonder why I mentioned the USS Zumwalt? Well Yesterday we got “With political and economic stakes possibly riding on a defense project that saw a 17% cost overrun from $12 billion to $14 billion and the number of vessels being dropped from 32 to only three, besides a raft of nagging flaws in the overtly advanced system, the USS Zumwalt series of warships will not be scrapped” three overpriced dinghy’s and they are about to refit them for “Advanced Gun System (AGS) will be replaced by another defining weapon of our times – hypersonic missiles.“ A collection of ships, not a decade old will face billions in cost for refit, its stealth hull no longer doing what it was designed to do. On the other hand, I designed a weapon to sink it for a mere $250,000 per deployment, so who was stupid enough to sign that contract at $14,000,000,000 per vessels setting the stage from 32 ships to a mere three of them? You really think the super rich were the problem or these overspending politicians with their heads in the clouds? Someone OK’ed spending $14,000,000,000 on something that never properly worked and they are about to spend more.
A dangerous ploy
Today, we see President Biden play a dangerous card. It is his version of ‘tax the rich’. Now lets be clear, I have nothing against it, I find it unfair, in stead of ‘properly tax everyone’ he goes after one group, a populist approach to this issue. A setting we see but do we see it correctly. Presidents going back decades have been unwilling to overhaul tax laws in the US. The difference here is that it comes with an added bonus. The article (at https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens-budget-boost-military-raise-taxes-billionaires-2022-03-28/) gives us ‘Biden’s budget boosts military, raises taxes on billionaires, companies’ it comes with the added text “U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday submitted a $5.79 trillion budget plan to Congress that calls for record peacetime military spending while raising taxes for billionaires and companies and lowering government deficits.” In 2021 the US estimates that they expect to collect $3.86 trillion. Expected does not mean achieved, it is an educated guess. In 2019 they collected $3.46 trillion. The 2020 numbers are also expected. So in this, how does the US give us a $5.79 trillion budget, $1,930 billion more than they will collect. Money the US does not have and the billionaire fix get them nothing more than about $360 billion in the next decade, according to the document. So $360,000,000,000 in a decade does not tell us how the US will survive $1,930 billion more than they expect to collect. An additional of $1.9 trillion more and there is no space to wiggle, the chance is that those with more than $100,000,000 will more completely to the zero tax havens like Dubai, Bermuda, Bahamas, Monaco and a few other places. It will start an economic brain drain and a wallet drain to boot. It is a dangerous play, especially as (again) no proper tax overhaul follows.
As I see it, this dangerous play will make the rich avoid the US like the plague, for a lot of them it no longer pays them to stay there and the moment this administration figures that out, the danger will overwhelm them.
What I do not get is why the overhaul of tax laws are avoided to this degree. You see, it has always been about proper taxing people. A setting that might not make people like Elon Musk, George Soros, Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos happy, but it is an essential one. As such the overall quality of life in the US will slip and slide to lower levels still. And when it does the average person will see no real reason to stay there, the exodus will start and it will stops the US industrial machine to a near standstill position.
So when we see “Called the “Billionaire Minimum Income Tax,” it would assess a 20% minimum tax rate on U.S. households worth more than $100 million. Over half the revenue could come from those worth more than $1 billion.” We need to realise that ‘Tax the rich’ is dangerous. I have nothing against taxing billionaires (I am not one, and the next 3-4 years I do not expect to become on and I am not American), but when it is unfair taxation, it merely means that the courts will overflow with cases and if the next republican president stops that setting the US will be nearly $2 trillion out of pocket yet again and no achievements were made.
That is the danger of the play and that is the case that will stop the US. Yes, the Americans are so much better off than the previous fellow, are they not?
Work to live, live to enjoy
It is the proper setting, work to live is now no longer added by live to work but live to enjoy and it is setting a different coil in the US. With 28,000 jobs gone, the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/24/us-unemployment-lowest-level-since-1969) reports ‘US jobless claims fall to lowest level since 1969 as states float rebate checks’, it is a good step for the us, you see as jobless claims fall to such low levels, there is an option to actually reduce debt, one millimetre at a time and there are yards to go, so it will take some time. If only the tax laws were overhauled it might become centimetres at a time, but all administrations had found excuse after excuse why not to do that and it will take decades to get a chunk out of the $30,000,000,000,000 debt. You still think that overhauling US tax laws is not essential?
But that is the bad news, for now this administration can report that “Jobless claims fell by 28,000 to 187,000 for the week ending 19 March, the lowest since September of 1969,” and with all the bad news, that is one piece of good news that they can really use. On the other hand, as the IT structures change it might be a short lived gain. I am not stating that this good news will follow bad news, but as I see it over the next 18 months Microsoft will be in serious problems on three areas, it will force to lay off staff, on the other hand these people will be able to get a job almost immediately with IBM, Google, and Amazon. And with the laster changing station it will push revenues to new heights in several places (except Microsoft that is). And with the news ‘Amazon to create over 1,000 jobs with first logistics hub in Turkey’ Amazon sets another foundation, the first of three new cluster allowing them to gain even more revenue in 2023/2024. It will also work towards those 50,000,000 additional consoles and that is merely the start for Amazon and the beginning of much larger losses for Microsoft. Too bad they already handed over the $87,000,000,000 they could have used it to invest in innovative products, oh wait. That was what they wanted to do, what a shame they walked into the wrong direction and when you see that and realise the news (three days ago) gives us ‘Amazon further accelerates investment in Egypt, creates 2,000 new jobs’ the second of three clusters is set and the last two (the fourth is optional but decently essential) Amazon has taken steps to push Microsoft out of the gaming world (well, the most powerful console in the world becomes obsolete before it could shine), but the Nintendo Switch shines a little brighter than Microsoft, the least powerful nextgen console in the world defeated the most powerful one and soon a bookstore (read: Amazon) will add to the defeat of Microsoft and push it to fourth position after that the sliding scale will go a lot faster. The only crunch is that I would prefer that Amazon buys my IP before they can work out what was missing. (I am not greedy, merely hungry for a nice retirement) So soon we will see all the steps Microsoft missed and whilst they could have been going back to the n top position, their delusional side would not allow for it, their Azure and lack on several fronts got them here and should Adobe get involved. The fourth loss for Microsoft would be close to disastrous, but I already wrote about that and even as we see all the news, we also see that Amazon is getting ready to push back and they will push harder and more successful and too many will see Microsoft bleeding, after that the game of spin is on and spin only works if the people are willing to believe you and that group is shrinking rapidly. Yet it also reflects back on the 187,000 unemployed. For now there is no issue. As the Microsoft employees see the hard setting they face, they will all move to the other three, optionally places like Oracle and a few other places that will need people and the rush will start. In the end I do not know where the numbers end, but at present there is no negativity to be expected (if you aren’t Microsoft), and that starts a whole new stage. Even if we are alerted to the fact that unemployment is the lowest since 1969, the US will soon face a new challenge, a workers shortage and that is the larger station that follows, it will drive incomes up by a lot and even as the hungry sharks will focus on the Microsoft cadaver, it will not be enough and commerce needs the influx. Where it will come from? Your guess is as good as mine and beyond all this there is still China to consider. It too needs tech people, where they will come from? I honestly do not know, but there is every chance that some will come from the US. So whilst some will Ive to enjoy some will see an option to fill there pockets so that they can retire a few years earlier and enjoy more and longer. Which will drive up worker shortage even more and push the limits further, so when you see another ‘positive Microsoft story’ wonder where it comes from and what else is out there. At present Amazon is in place to push Microsoft down the hill straight into the basement only one tier remains missing (for now) and that will set the larger gains for Amazon.
Amazon apparently is ready works to live and lives to become a ruler on more than one hill.
The internal battle
We all have them and I am no different, yet there is also a stage of awe, not to me, to President Zelensky. You see, here I take the backstage (happily and willingly), a nation that is not widely known (other than it had a nuclear reactor that melted down), a stage Iran could face in the near future. The Ukraine stopped the Russian war machine, the Russian war machine is now entering the second month. Not bad for a nation that has a president who sounds remarkably like Paddington bear (according to some children). So basically the Russian bear was stopped by Paddington bear. (Hunney anyone?) A nation with the size that amounts to 21st position in military power stopped the nation who is the second largest military on the planet and conventionally, logistically and communicatively the Russians are coming up short by a lot. What was first considered a milk-run is now an absolute failure for Russia. It is like watching the The Detroit Red Wings going up to the Cleveland Lumberjacks and the Red Wings are at present losing 1-4, a stage no bookmaker could have ever predicted. So why is there an internal battle?
This battle is twofold, in the first setting the absence of hardcore support by all other nations is a bit disappointing. Yet we saw the list of stuff on route to Ukraine, but we can clearly see it is not enough, the other side of this battle is that sending more could spark a less nice stage, should we fear that? I believe we do, not because it is spoken from fear (it might be a little), it is because the escalations in the Kremlin might make the hardcore people there support one person to push a red button (I am guessing it is red). That would change the stage for all time and nearly all would be hit, optionally the only speculative safe place on the planet might be New Zealand. That is not a good place to be and we all know this. On the other hand the nuclear winter will take care of whatever global warming issues we have, so there is that to look forward to.
So we can on one hand not give way to a bully, but this bully does not wield a bat, it wield a nuclear arsenal and that will end everything. No matter what happens after that, Russia will be done for, it will be isolated and it will be hunted by EVERY nation on the planet for all eternity and no amount of political BS by whatever Russia has left will be accepted anywhere. They were the ones who pushed the button, almost like an 80’s think-tank scenario. A stage we never thought would happen. All whilst some give us ‘NATO ready to threaten Putin with ‘far-reaching consequences’ if Russia uses chemical, nuclear weapons’ we seem to forget that Russia has 6257 Nuclear missiles, should they all be fired not much will be left, so what far reaching consequences will be done? If Russia fires theirs, there is every chance that NATO will fire the 6200 and some responses (USA, France, UK), so what in the end will be left to give consequence to? If it comes to blows, the planet will remain in the hands of China, India, 5 million kiwi’s and 25 million New Zealand sheep. With the chance that only New Zealand could supply the world with vegetables and mutton that does not make you glow in the dark.
So yes, there is an internal battle and even though I refuse to give in that it is all fear, there will be fear because I remember the 1983 movie ‘the Day after’ and I do remember some of the inserted parts being NATO training movies. So the impact will be close to total. Should we worry? I believe we do (to some degree), we always believed that the US and Russian leaders would be solid, but the invasion of Ukraine (by Russia) proves me wrong on the very first count, which makes the rest a speculation at best.
What happens next? I have no idea, but then the rest of the world does not either know at present.
The intelligence nightmare
Yes, that is how I see it. You think that you have seen it all? It is about to get worse and the BBC actually is showing us the start of it. With ‘Thousands of pro-Russia Serbs march in Belgrade’ we are merely scratching the surface. The article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60630351) does not give much, but it gives us “Friday’s march was a show of support for Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine. Serbia has religious, ethnic and political ties with Russia that have existed for centuries” You see it is a lot worse, Serbian arms dealers are all over Europe. Paces like Rotterdam, London and Paris come to mind, but there are more and now as we see all the pro Russian events starting, we see a stage where Serbs could destabilise most of western Europe. They can fuel lone wolves tying hands all over the place and they sit back and watch the chaos unfold. A setting Moscow really likes. So how speculative is this? Well the issues with arm dealers in these three places alone are worrisome and they have been for the longest of times seeing a lot more visibility in 2020. Now with this BBC article it is still speculative to connect the two, but I am not sure that it is merely speculation. There have been issues for the longest of times and it is merely brought to the surface and a more visible pedestal now.
The problem is that a lot was not monitored for the longest of time and now the intelligence organisations are lacking information on too many sides. Some sources (unconfirmed ones) give rise to activities in Denmark, Sweden, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Luxembourg, USA, Norway, Montenegro and Austria. Do you really think it is all speculation? They have been busy under nearly everyones noses for over a decade and now that Russia is pushing the buttons, some are claiming allegiance, some are waking up and some are set to set Western Europe on fire. Which is which? I cannot tell, but there are connections on all kinds of levels. Did no one consider why Russian weaponry was relatively easy to get in Amsterdam and Rotterdam? In 2020 the Times gave us “While Serbia had a glut of Cold War-era stockpiles and a robust but underused defence industry, the Iraqi government was ill-equipped to battle an insurgency. So in late 2007 the two countries struck a £190 million deal to bring Serbian assault rifles, machine guns, anti-tank weapons, ammunition, explosives and other ordnance to Iraq”, I personally believe that these pipelines were there to also get Russian weapons into Iraq, and not merely the ones they have, to a larger degree the Russians provided hardware and that sets a new station, the station of storage. The Netherlands has been (for the longest time), a transitional port of arms, but there is also the speculation (never proven) that at times a container was ‘misplaced’ and ended on Dutch soil, a container filled with arms. So, how much of this is speculation? There is a fair amount of it, but I worked in the harbours of Rotterdam, when I was young and gullible, so anything is possible. Yet in this day and age, when serbs are ‘proclaiming loyalty’ do you want to take that chance? I will let you figure it out.
And whilst you do the Intelligence organisations of Europe will have to take a harsh look at what they have on the Serbs in their domain, because they really do not get to have a choice in that matter, not anymore.
And me? I have found a few more cogs to add to the previous story, I like to remain creative.
Where are we heading?
That is the stage we comment on and most comment on events in Europe, most would and that is not bad. But something happened in Lebanon that got my attention (something is always happening there). You see, many might have noticed ‘UAE set to be put on money laundering watchdog’s ‘grey list,’ report says’ (source: CNBC), we are given quotes like “The Financial Action Task Force, an intergovernmental organisation dedicated to combatting money laundering and illicit cash flows, is set to put the United Arab Emirates on its “grey list” over concerns that the Gulf country isn’t sufficiently stemming illegal financial activities”, now I am not debating it, it might be true, it might not. I cannot lay claims to events I have no data on. But whilst we see that, Reuters also gives us (at https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/lebanese-bank-closes-over-30-british-held-accounts-after-uk-ruling-depositors-2022-03-04/) ‘Lebanese bank closes over 30 British-held accounts after UK ruling-depositors’ group’. There we see “A Bank Audi official told Reuters the bank was “asking that the UK residents apply the terms applicable to anyone opening a new account: no international transfers, no cash withdrawals””, so just to help me out. You create a bank account and you are not allowed to withdraw cash? How does that make the bank a bank? And we also get “More than $100 billion remains stuck in a banking system paralysed since 2019, when the economy collapsed due to decades of unsustainable state spending, corruption and waste”, as such my question becomes what on earth is the Financial Action Task Force doing monitoring banks? First Credit Suisse, through state sponsored hacking and now we see Bank Audi. Two elements showing a massive cash stage running into the hundreds of billions. So what the hell is the Financial Action Task Force doing? Why are they not investigating banks? We see the mention of Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, the mention of nations, not banks. Banks are seemingly flying below the radar and we see an alleged flaccid response from action groups. Oh and it would be nice to see specifics. Not some journo’s BS approach towards emotional garbage. I discussed this in ‘The presumption is mine’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/02/21/the-presumption-is-mine/) where I wrote “so all that space on what amounts to 0.03% of the entire amount. Just like the ICIJ, shortsighted and a waste of time. So we get repeated invitations to explain 0.03% of what is such a massive leak? Is anyone waking up yet?”, now if the FATF did its job and also gives us why the UAE needs to be on a grey list and NOT the bank it becomes a different story, optionally an acceptable one. That same setting applies to Switzerland, home to 242 banks and Credit Suisse. Oh, and before I forget the data leak never explained (it never will) why such harsh methods needs to be applied to the other 242 banks. No one ever asked that question, not other authorities, not the wannabe journalists either. Is that not weird too?
We need to see where we are going and what games certain parties are playing. I saw the Credit Suisse for nothing but a simple fishing expedition. A chumming exercise by the NSA (most likely culprit) to get some of the fish out there. And no one saw that? I am clever, but I am not that clever (compared to self proclaimed clever people), which (as I personally see it) implies orchestration.
Am I right, am I wrong? I also ask that question from myself. The Switzerland setting alerted me to weirdness of it all, the UAE draws the setting to the surface. The UAE and its 20 local and 30 foreign banks. Yes that is also the case, so the FATF better come with a very good and very large folder with evidence on a whole range of banks. And before you think the UAE does nothing, we saw a week ago “The government confiscated assets worth $625m last year.” As such I hope that the FATF can prove its setting of “concerns that the Gulf country isn’t sufficiently stemming illegal financial activities” it seems that the UAE has proven activities, so is the FATF merely blowing its own horn? Perhaps it needs to look into the Audi bank and a few other banks too and several of them are not in Switzerland or the UAE. When we see quotes like “About $227.8 million money laundering in USA in 2020 according to our calculation that based 2020 Money Laundering Offense Report”, so how much did the US confiscate? Just asking.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 