Category Archives: Finance

October 8, 2024 · 23:53

Making money

Yup, you can make money in three ways. You create it, you steal it, or you can make the government reimburse you. The third one is one that has its own risks. Yet the BBC informs us ‘Customers of failed crypto firm FTX set for refunds’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0qz3dg21vqo) Where we are given “Creditors of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX are poised to receive up to $16.5bn (£12.6bn) under a bankruptcy plan approved in the US on Monday.” And we get more with “Last year, former boss Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted of stealing customer funds ahead of the collapse and later sentenced to 25 years in prison. The deal will allow former customers to recover a sum worth about 119% of what they had in their accounts at the time of bankruptcy, according to FTX.” As such it seems that these customers get 19% on top of what they had in their accounts. There are ups and downs. We are also given “Some have suggested the repayment in cash will not match the loss of crypto holdings that would be worth far more today had they not been stolen. The value of bitcoin has more than tripled since November 2022.” As such I would surmise that someone went shopping with an approximate 180% of the total of sums. As the outstanding bill was set to “$8bn in customer funds were reported missing, not including debts to investors and others. Mr Ray’s team has since recovered assets worth $14.7-$16.5bn” As such 8 billion was found missing, Roughly double was retrieved and these customers only get 119%? I think there is a stinky fishy smell coming from the realm of banks. They might small consolation that Sam Bankman-Fried is convicted to 9125 days in Hotel Sing-Sing, but that might be merely the impression some feel. You see, the larger premise might be that we are given “the approval of the plan was a “significant milestone” in the firm’s efforts to repay the money to people and firms in more than 200 jurisdictions around the world” but the underlying issue that the BBC seems to ‘ignore’ is that people like Elisabeth Holmes and Sam Bankman-Fried (aka SBM) are given way to much leeway. Holmes was given 11 years imprisonment, where the Guardian on May 8th gave us that her sentence was reduced by two years and four months before original date. As such her sentence is reduced by almost 20%, so what reductions is SBM looking forward to? If is is a similar 20%, he could be out by 2044 and if he plays nice (good behaviour) he might be out even sooner that that. As such we might surmise that crime pays nowadays. And the media will milk these two for whatever they can be milked for. 

Enjoy the day ahead of you.

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October 6, 2024 · 20:05

Is it merely political?

That was the thought I had. It came from Politico, as such I would believe that it was political. Yet the larger premise is on the setting of circumstance. This sounds weirdly spooky, but it is the best I can offer. The story (at https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-war-economy-pain-saudi-arabia-sink-global-oil-prices-energy-russia-opec/) starts with ‘Putin’s war economy faces pain if Saudis sink global oil prices’ which is a partial truth, but it goes further then that. We are given “A Saudi move to grab market share will squeeze the Kremlin’s finances, experts argue” which is only a partial truth. The entire part is followed by “Riyadh is increasingly frustrated with other petrostates’ failure to coordinate on cutting supply to raise oil prices to about $100 per barrel — up from the current $70. Oil traders say Saudi Arabia is now set to respond by flexing its muscles and turning the tables on smaller producers, exporting more oil itself to grab market share and profits, even as prices fall.” We are also given “The Financial Times reported last week that Saudi Arabia could abandon its long-held ambitions to limit the crude supply to push prices to around $100 a barrel. Oil market experts have little doubt that Saudi Arabia has the enormous production and export capacity to change tactics and gun for market domination through volume instead.” In this view I need to align a few positions. What is missing is that America (the United Kingdom also) are depending in keeping oil cheap. So that is missing. Hanging it on the Russian needs is a bit dorky. Yes, they both matter, but the US an EU need for cheap oil missing as a pre-made need, is just dorky (I can’t find a better word for this). You see when there is a lack of a commodity prices go up and now this fails? The world requires (at present) that 2.4 million barrels per day pumped more than now and that is not done. I actually speculated this a year ago when I stated that we can pump 4 barrels at $3, or 3 barrels at $4. The amount gained is still the same but at 25% less oil. It is a simple equation (and an incorrect version) but the the premise remains. I went through to the next stage that Saudi Arabia could pump 2 barrels as the price goes up to $6, still the same revenue but now at half the oil delivered. This is how commerce works on commodities. I still doubt the statement that the $100 per barrel cannot be reached, I merely believe that certain stakeholders want the premise to keep their pockets lined. How? I cannot tell, I am not an oil person, I merely use it through various means. So what gives? 

When we get to ““The global economy is fairly sluggish and oil demand is not as high as the Saudis would want,” said Ajay Parmar, director of oil markets analytics at commodities intelligence firm ICIS.” I have issues here. You see, this means that the Russia delivers all oil. There is not a lack of demand, some people are playing a high end game to keep their pockets lined. If I had it my way (pretend that I am the new CEO of Aramco, a very fake one) I would stop 5.5 million barrels a day from reaching the US, EU and UK, in the combination 3,2 and .5 it would take less than 90 days for it all to implode. As Tesla is more and more lacking is quality, the other nations will need 2-3 years to overcome their downfall and in that time China is the new superpower with America stumbling over the edge of the abyss. That is clear in my (optionally wrong) point of view. The setting that Politico gives is too partial and slightly too flawed. 

Yes Russia has a problem and they are welcome to the problems they get to harvest now. A second problem is “Russia’s fossil fuel profits have also risen by 41 percent in the first half of this year alone, according to Moscow’s finance ministry, despite Western sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.” I don’t doubt these numbers, but who paid for that oil? I doubt is was merely China, North Korea and India. Although these countries were involved. I saw last year that India was buying some of the oil, China is a definite and I guess that North Korea had to pay for their weapons and it seems like a logical choice for them to accept oil as payment. So who more? 

Politico should have stated “Russia’s fossil fuel profits have also risen by 41 percent (from 1M barrels to 1.41M barrels)” but they didn’t if Russia only sold 50,000 barrels it will not be an issue, but that is not the case, is it?

Now if you doubt my reasoning. That is fine. But we have seen plenty of issues where prices go up the moment that commodities has a higher demand. Yet the article does not give us that does it? And who is Ajay Parmar? This article leaves me with plenty of questions and no answers. So in all this, Is Russia in actual trouble? To some degree, but I see this as an alternative way for Saudi Arabia to give in to the west requiring cheap oil. I personally believe that Politico missed their mark and as such loses credibility as such. The one part that I do see is “A loophole allows middlemen in countries like Turkey, China and India to refine Russian oil in petrol and diesel before selling it elsewhere — exempt from sanctions. According to a report first seen by POLITICO, Western countries spent $2 billion on this rebranded fuel in the first half of 2024” As such that should be the story and the story is that more and more nations are fuelling Russian revenue through refining Russian oil and filling their pockets. As such there is a momentum being built, one that is not addressed and one that is trivialised as such I expect that plenty of newspapers will fuel their revenue by posting this story. The 41% is now shown to be big business, especially when we see Turkey and India and how they are short on cash pretty much all of the time.

So we are seeing a larger stage. In the first on where is Russian oil going to and in the second what countries are fuelling their demands for cheap oil? A nice spreadsheet would have been nice, but that was a part that Politico oversaw (I guess).

Still as we see one part, we also see the part that some want us to see, appointed awareness. A combination of social awareness and the influence of appointing. A formal arrangement to create a designed social awareness. The ability to understand a situation as the offical parties would like others to see them. But as I see it, this will be at the expense of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Is that fair all whilst Russia is handed loophole after loophole, as long as the west gets its oil cheap. How is this not exploitation? 

Consider what is being done and at what expense? The question is simple enough. 

Enjoy the Sunday you have left to you.

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October 4, 2024 · 21:11

Accepted doubt

This is on my, or better stated my view on matters. In this case it is the Reuters article ‘Exclusive:  Kushner has discussed U.S.-Saudi diplomacy with Saudi crown prince’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/kushner-has-discussed-us-saudi-diplomacy-with-saudi-crown-prince-2024-10-04/) which was released less than 30 minutes ago. I have had serious doubt on the media on a near global stage and at this moment Reuters has gained several points towards doubt. Yet, in this case I am willing to put doubt on my ability to see things clearly. 

So, lets take a look.

“The news that Kushner and Saudi Arabia’s de-facto leader discussed a peace accord”, here we see the statement “de-facto leader”, we know that Saudi Arabia still has a king, but what stops Reuters to state “The news that Kushner and Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud discussed a peace accord”, both are in principle correct. Yet the Reuters statement comes across as Saudi bashing. ‘To put a person in its place’ might be the interpretation as many would see it, especially in the Middle East. Then we get “renew questions about whether Kushner’s financial ties with Riyadh could influence U.S. policy under his father-in-law”, so what is the issue here? It is a serious question because the article does not give us a complete report on what those ties are, we get a link to the Hill, there we see ““crossed the line of ethics” by accepting a $2 billion investment from the Saudi government in his private investment firm six months after he left the White House” my question in this is were laws broken? You see, the investment was done AFTER he left the White House. So were laws broken, or were they not. 

Then we get “To encourage Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel, the Biden administration has offered Riyadh security guarantees, assistance with a civilian nuclear program and a renewed push for a Palestinian state. The deal could reshape the Middle East by uniting two long-time foes and binding the world’s biggest oil exporter to Washington at a time when China is making inroads in the region” How come that China is diminished with “when China is making inroads in the region” and what is this about “assistance with a civilian nuclear program”. My issue is that China has been making inroads for the better part of two years. As such making inroads, comes across as a joke, massively inaccurate. So why was the civilian nuclear program added? Could be true, could be anything. But the media at present has a massive credibility issue and whilst space on a webpage is nearly free, Reuters is a little stingy on using it.

Last we get to “The Saudi relationship with Trump was notably close. Trump’s first foreign trip as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, accompanied by Kushner. After Saudi expatriate opposition journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Trump stood by the crown prince in spite of a U.S. intelligence assessment that he had authorised the killing. MbS denied involvement.” Is filled with inaccuracies. No clear evidence has been produced that Khashoggi was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Turkey, there was an assumption and the setting that “U.S. intelligence assessment that he had authorised the killing” is even more inaccurate. The document A/HRC/41/CRP.1 which was given to the world by the Human Rights Council does not give us that either. In that report U.S. Intelligence is mentioned twice. In one case we are given “The Directive states that if a U.S. intelligence agency “acquires credible and specific information indicating an impending threat of intentional killing, serious bodily injury, or kidnapping,” that agency has a duty to warn the intended victim.” No mention of authorisation or anything regarding an order by Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. I am adding that document at the bottom. As such I have issues with the Reuters article. 

There is more but read the article yourself. The article hands us a pice of evidence that Reuters is losing credibility. 

I am not a Trump fan, but at present there is a larger stage and the Biden administration of fumbling the ball, and as issues go at present, China will be a large bigger inroad in the Middle East (Saud Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) in 2025 and I have to wonder how much inroad they will make in Egypt in 2025.

But I hope that the message comes across. And in the second stage, what laws did Kushner break? Because in the end that is what matters. 

Have a great day

a_hrc_41_crp.1Download

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October 3, 2024 · 21:35

When books are more

That was the setting I saw myself in this morning. As you (optionally) read this morning, I had given a walk down on a piece of IP by Meta, with the reference to stories more then two years old on my view on what is now the Orion with references to tourism advertising and a few settings towards creating awareness. But whilst I was writing that setting, I thought of another stage. The stage that reverts by to books. 

Consider the TV series I, Claudius. A drama that is the best drama ever written. Now I had the ‘initial’ version released in the 80’s, now it’s a Penguin title. The nice part of Penguin is that it is cheap. But my mind took it to a new direction and with augmented reality it is possible. Consider the story (which plays in ancient Rome) but now add augmented reality and at that point we have access to artwork like the statues of the old Romans like Augustus (Brian Blessed), Tiberius (George Baker), Caligula (John Hurt), Sejanus (Patrick Steward) and many more. Not the actors (or optionally included), but the art work, the statues, the places like the Colosseum, the royal palace and many more places that we might have seen. Draw the reader in with the art and references of how those people likely looked with ‘A.I.’ as the sculptures are drawn the the living version of these people. The stage is never ending. We could enable a much larger realm that some books give us. I, Claudius might show us how that world might have looked. Even as there are still issues to be resolved (Meta does little for free), but the sights could open a much larger world and Orion could bring that to the living room of anyone who has an Orion, the spectacle that brings a spectacle to the living room (to coin a phrase). 

I for one would like a little more spice with some of my books. It is OK if this title has these views added to a new version (like a limited edition), but the art still needs to be initially created. And there is no reason that these works of art cannot be accessible by the Orion glasses. Especially if one grows the tourism stage with these places and items. Consider if you are at the Colosseum, you put on your glasses, or see though your mobile art and stages of places at the simple connections? Wouldn’t that be great? I took this example as this is the best series the BBC ever created. But in my writing of ‘The opportunity for 2022’ on February 1st 2022, I used the option of Monte Carlo, through QR codes the people saw a much larger stage using a mobile. There is no reason that the Orion glasses couldn’t be used. I reckon that these glasses paired with your mobile wouldn’t do the trick too (a lot more comfortable) and with that we see the new tier of these glasses as it fuels tourism. Seeing the augmented reality of the winner William Grover-Williams driving his Bugatti Type 35B on 14 April 1929 on the track (which in Monte Carlo still exists), it gives the people more then they had and now we are literally off to the races. Augmented Reality is merely constraint by the limitation of the creative thinker and Meta removed several borders. That is the larger stage we need to embrace. I get that some people will state that there is enough tourism there. But the early bird will gain access to the revenue worms that are out there. Like the malls they need to push borders to engage the people and the malls are now feeling the pressure to create engagement and you merely need to see the amount of people who attended the malls in 2019 versus 2024 to see that places like Eaton centre mall (Toronto) and Dubai Mall (Dubai) have lost visitors (Dubai not that much) but the keep on top of matters is done by offering people more then before. That has always been proven (again and again).

America had 116,000 malls and there is no real list where I could read the numbers. But the Dubai Mall has a good amount of visitors. Now the top three malls in Dubai are the Dubai Mall, the mall of the emirates and Nakheel mall. Still there is (or soon will be) the Dubai Hills Mall. So how will you keep people engaged? By offering more and optionally something that the others do no have, as such there is apace and place for augmented reality and I saw that years ago. Now that Meta has the Orion there will be space and a place for growing that market. Funny, this was out in the open for years and both Google and Amazon were both asleep at the wheel. Now Meta has a new realm to grow a few markets and could end up being the game changer in certain fields.

Have a great day and for the Vancouverians out there, nothing will happen at 21:21 in the evening. I just learned that. I love my time based jokes, like photo bombing, it is an acquired guilty pleasure.

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October 3, 2024 · 08:41

As history catches up

On the first of February 2022 I wrote ‘The opportunity for 2022’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/02/01/the-opportunity-for-2022/) where I set a stage for augmented reality, at a later stage I also set it for glasses and windows (an actual window pane) and with that I started a thought process that could revitalise malls on a global scale. I initially covered tourism, but soon thereafter I covered commerce, advertising and awareness creation. The focus for me was the Eaton centre (Toronto) as it was a clear case of awareness improvement. There were a few other sides for mobiles, but this stage was explored by my mind and last week I was given a jolt of energy as Meta (at https://about.fb.com/news/2024/09/introducing-orion-our-first-true-augmented-reality-glasses/) gives us the Orion, previously codenamed Project Nazare, as I kind of envisioned it. I thought that Google and/or Amazon would have picked it up, but no, it was Meta. So as I see it Meta now has a clear advantage over advertising and a new realm of awareness creation. So whilst Amazon and Google were cutting staff, cutting all kinds of enablements Meta now has more than the inside track. They can whisk advantages in advertisement, tourism, awareness creation and a few other directions. This is what sets them apart from the wannabe innovators. And I left all the evidence all over the internet, as such I can truthfully see myself as an innovator. As I see it, the one part not grabbed by Meta is the mobile layer where they can grab the attention of jewellers on a global scale. I am not merely talking about the small players, I am talking about Pandora, Harry Winston, the Swiss Richemont Group, Bernard Arnault and his LVMH scoundrels (as the expression goes) and a few other players. They all become very willing players in this realm. A stage that wan’t open to many of us, now becomes a new stage of revitalisation. And the malls need them and as such Meta gets to surpass Google with YouTube and Amazon with whatever they have. I actually didn’t think to be this ahead, I was in some believe that this was 5-10 years away. History catches up with me. Oh, and I was thinking also a bigger picture. You see this could work well for publishers and book shops as well. As the jeweller has its domain, the domain of books could equally profit from augmented reality. 

Meta already has the skills to put in place the technology to set the domain for advertisements and with that the malls could revitalise soon enough. For me it is another moment of bliss. Whilst several people made claims that I was nuts, the technology now exists to make larger parts of my ‘delusion’ a reality. I feel awesome, those shouting I was a nutcase have just exposed themselves to be nothing more than wannabe’s with a lack of creativity. 

And later today I will add another story, it will be all about books. Well one in particularly. Have a great day.

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September 30, 2024 · 11:48

Co inky dink

Yup, my previous article on comic films preceded a BBC article. Or perhaps better stated I saw the article after I wrote my article. As coincidences, go a nice one. The BBC article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6er83ene6o) gives us ‘Hollywood’s big boom has gone bust’, I have some issues here. The first is seen with “the good times ground to a halt in May 2023, when Hollywood’s writers went on strike” I resent the implied status that this was up to the writers going on strike. And as we are given both “The actor and aerial cinematographer turned his hobby of flying drones into a profitable business in 2012 just as the streaming wars were taking off. For a decade, he was flying high above film sets, creating sleek aerial shots for movies and TV shows on Netflix, Amazon and Disney” and “But rather than roaring back, in the one year since the strikes ended, production has fizzled.” This story isn’t giving us the goods. You see there are a few elements. One is saturation of business. First there was Netflix, and not we have in addition Disney plus, Hulu, Paramount, YouTube TV, Sling, Fubo and Amazon prime. Several more to follow but these are the better ones. What was one is now eight and it doesn’t end there, there are all kinds of digital boxes who keep tabs on it all. The problem is that income levels are still the same as they were in December 2019, pretty much in synch with the first Covid setting. In 5 years most incomes are either the same or ridiculously close to that and in the meantime the cost of living has gone through the roof. Housing has been raised in many places by as much as 50%, that is hundreds of dollars a week. Food has risen by about 5% per year. There is the larger set that most people can at best afford 1 digital channel (if at all), as such all eight channels competed for the same customer at the same time. As such it isn’t merely that production fizzled, or that projects were cancelled. There is a dwindling population that cannot even afford one channel. And to relate that to the present, Disney projected it would spend between $8 billion-$9 billion on content for its premiere streaming service. Now see that investment all whilst less people could afford that TV channel. This isn’t merely America, this is a global problem. Hollywood has relied on the old Roman principle “Give the people bread and games” and now the people cannot afford the games and more and more of them are falling short for buying bread and this is happening all over the world. So whilst we get “Projects have been cancelled and production was cut across the city as jobs have dried up, with layoffs at many studios – most recently at Paramount. It had a second round of layoffs this week, as the storied movie company moves to cut 15% of its workforce ahead of a merger with the production company Skydance.” We see that there is a lull in the setting of projects and the attainment that people are in the mindset of “things will go better soon” but that is not the case. America and Europe wasted at least two years on their ego all whilst the ‘customers’ who had the cash have vacated to China. I saw this happen two years ago, which is why I created a script that could entertain the Muslim population. And I was right that SBA (Saudi Broadcasting Authority) and Dubai media are growing like crazy, all whilst the American players are merging and buying each other out. I saw the same happen in the IT in the early 90’s with a Dutch company called Infotheek. On the edge of bankruptcy, they bought the smaller players and take that revenue as your own. It didn’t work then, I doubt it will work now. And in that light America has a second problem. Many players will divert to Canada as it could be an option. Many actors and actresses are Canadian, so that works for some. Vancouver is a new powerhouse in this and the more the capture the smaller the American pie becomes. As such the article is right, Hollywood big boom has gone bust, as could be the case for Hollywood fairly soon. And there lies the problem, an over bubbled industry, A premise of channels that ned to invest billions, all whilst there is doubt that the revenue in 2026 could have diminished by 20% (at least), as such who gets the money? Then in the past 300% on investment was achievable, soon it will merely be between break even and perhaps 50%, so how many investors will leap the fence to optionally Arabic channels? I made it clear in 2020 that you cannot bite the hand that feeds you, but did the American defense industry listen? Nope and now the Chinese defense industry reports a growth of 25% year-on-year. That is money that is not going to America and now the streaming channels are optionally seeing a similar move towards Arabic nations and India. So how long until the boom turns into a gap that implodes implodes? 

All things that have been out in the open, but the BBC overlooked it. It is a good story and it gives some of the goods, but it overlooked the attached factors and these are a lot more disastrous. Well, that’s it for now. It is almost lunch time for me, have a great morning wherever you are.

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September 29, 2024 · 22:58

For desert we have this

The second part is lighter, a lot lighter. I saw a video on YouTube a mere hour ago, it is an abandoned movie, namely the Jetsons.

I remember the comic books and I loved the Jetsons. Now I see that a Panasonic version was abandoned. Why? And that is when the thought occurred that in the age of Unreal Engine 5 and what some call AI, this movie (or series) could be done without actors. All set in a ‘futuristic’ stage.

And as we realise that these abandoned projects could be given life in new ways and that could be done for a whole range of comic books and old cartoons. Considering that the streamers need all kind of projects and they are running more and more quickly out of ideas. I am amazed that this hasn’t been handed a larger thought by all kind of streamers. 

And with the three simple ideas above, there are hundreds of comic books that could optionally be done in the same way. Some of them were never turned into a cartoon and as such it could offer the graphic designers a new age of creativity, not to mention those works who lost their makers as well as a host of IP rights. I wonder why no one gave that any serious thought. You see, the cartoon world is so much larger then Marvel and DC Comics. For the first 20 years I saw almost no Marvel and in the DC world only Batman (from 1967). As such, I tend to wonder why a player like Netflix let that option slip by. 

So graphic designers. What are you waiting for. There is a whole pool of options out in the open. Spread your wings and seek your fortune.

Have a great day.

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September 29, 2024 · 22:23

The first stage in a setting

This is the first of two, the second is of a much lighter sense, as such I am leaving this for desert. The first one (this one) is heavy and will offend a whole lot of people. I have stated this opinion before, but that stage got back in my mind after I saw this article (at https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-crown-prince-personally-doesnt-care-palestine-issue) where we are given ‘Saudi crown prince said he personally ‘doesn’t care’ about Palestinian issue’, it sounds nice. We are then given “Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that he does not personally care about what he referred to as the “Palestinian issue”, according to a report in The Atlantic.” I do Care and as the foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia (Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud) tells us “Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat on Thursday announced the launch of a new initiative to establish a Palestinian state and garner support for the implementation of a two-state solution after decades of international efforts failed, leading the region to the brink of an all-out war”, which several sources told us including Al-Arabiya (at https://english.alarabiya.net/News/saudi-arabia/2024/09/27/saudi-arabia-announces-new-global-coalition-to-establish-palestinian-state).

My view is that I have nothing against the establishment of Palestine, but it does urgently require the eradication of Hamas. Hamas is a hate only party and sooner or later they will abide by the ‘requests’ of Iran and hit Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran wants to be at the head of the table, or they will ensure that no one will sit there and destabilisation continues. That time has passed and Iran still depends on Houthi and Hamas to bring their point across in the most violent way possible. Now that Hezbollah has been carved into pieces by Israel, Houthi terrorists will think twice on continuing on a path where they ‘assist’ Iran in any way possible. And sooner or later (probably sooner) Iran will find a way for Palestinians or Yemeni’s to find a low paying jobs just to throw wherever they are (in the KSA or UAE) to foul things up. In simple ways that will demand long term repairs or even reconstructing parts that were already done and soon (either Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates) will through ‘anonymous’ sources to get a larger seat for Iran at the table. This is not speculation, it is presumption based on the actions of Iran over the last 20 years. And as such The eradication of Hamas is a given need. When they fall away Iran has merely Yemen to fall back onto and that stops Iran (for now) in its tracks. As Yemen (read Houthi terrorists) sees what damage Israel did to Hezbollah and Hamas next, they will choose a non-violent path, especially when Iran stops taking their calls. 

I believe that there are options especially as Iran loses the two terrorist allies they have. I don’t think it will be the end of it, but I believe that stability in the middle east is essential to a better world and too many power players think that destabilisation is key to their wealth. That needs to stop. I know that it is merely my view and many will state that I am wrong, but as I see it, there are too many people having blind faith in Iran turning a page to a better future, all whilst this path has been walked by administrations for 3 decades. It is time to call it quits. We need solutions there and they need to be made by the right people. Oh, and for those that think that this isn’t essential. Remember that Hamas on 7 October 2023 initiated a sudden attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip. As part of the attack, 364 individuals, mostly civilians, were killed and many more wounded at the Supernova Sukkot Gathering, an open-air music festival during the Jewish holiday of Shemini Atzeret near kibbutz Re’im and they took 40 people hostage. As far as we know from those 40 hostages, 14 of the hostages are still being held captive. That has been the focal point for Israel. And the setting that we see with the ‘proclaimed’ 40,000 deaths and it was clear months ago that Israel stated ‘Let our people go’ that is what Hamas pushed for and now that Hezbollah has lost pretty much the complete top of their structure (pager by pager) Iran is worried and so should Hamas be. I get that Saudi Arabia wants to stand by Muslims and that is something a lot of people understand, but it does require the eradication of Hamas. Hamas did this to themselves on October 7th 2023. Saudi Arabia (as well as the UAE) need to focus on stability for the middle east and in this case I count Egypt as a middle eastern player. Egypt will be important to Saudi Arabia down the line with 5G advancements as well as the fact that 111 million Egyptians are a great goal for the Saudi Broadcasting Authority, they could largely increase their visibility, moreover, it would allow Egypt to broadcast to Muslims in Spain, France, Italy and Greece. And from there, optionally to more nations in Europe. But that is merely my insight lacking view on the matter. OK, it has a personal view. As more islamic people get connected to streaming TV and streaming solutions, my script ‘How to assassinate a politician’ might actually be released at some point (my ego tends to seek solutions too).

It is almost Monday now. So have a great day and you will hopefully enjoy this Sunday.

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September 28, 2024 · 22:22

How I fall short

That is the stage, that is the setting. I do not know everything (too boring anyways) and even as I see how things develop and are optionally staged. The fact that I do not know everything gets in the way of some things. Now, I know very little about oil. It is a commodity everyone needs, it is a commodity only some countries have and the two biggest players in that field are Aramco and ADNOC, oil is black and it is needed for the production of petroleum. That’s about all I know. The current price is about $68 dollars per barrel. So when I saw ‘Oil price drops, and BP and Shell shares slide, as Saudi Arabia ‘prepares to abandon $100 crude target’’ I didn’t think too much of it. The story comes from the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/sep/26/european-reconstruction-bank-cuts-growth-forecasts-energy-ukraine-elon-musk-uk-investment-summit), there were more sources, but I am handing you this one. We get “Saudi Arabia is reportedly ready to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 a barrel for crude as it prepares to increase output” yet Oil&Gas journal gives us “Saudi Arabia is preparing to abandon its informal target of $100/bbl for crude oil as it plans to increase production, signalling the kingdom’s acceptance of a period of lower prices and intentions to take back market share, according to sources cited by the Financial Times”, now in my book the shortage of one commodity means prices go up. I do understand that any player will protect market share, as such I get the increase of product to protect your market share. That makes sense. And as such we see Saudi Arabia deciding an increase for about 1 million barrels per day as per December 2024. There are a few players on this field and I like the idea that the increase will make sure that Russia has less customers to get it from Russia is not happy. And as several media are giving us the goods, there is no other way for me than to agree with the setting. In overall there is still a larger concern I have. Oil is a commodity with a finite supply, so how much supply is there? I believe that the middle east has the bulk of it, but the finite session gives us the dangerous setting that at some point, the three countries with supply will be Russia, Iran and Venezuela. That is not a setting I want to wake up to, although at present it is highly unlikely that I will be around the morning we get that piece of news. In the meantime there is a larger issue at stake. How will Aramco increase its creation of oil with an additional 159,000,000 litres of that black fluid. You see everyone is looking at the end result and no one is looking at the how. What is required to that level of increase? I feel certain that it will require a lot more than one pump. It is the increase of 10% (near to that) and comes from 300 rigs. The simpleton in me sees this as an additional 30 rigs. It takes 18 months to five years to commission a rig, the construction timeline for an oil rig can vary significantly depending on several factors and that is if the oil comes from rigs. Saudi Arabia has one hundred oil and gas fields, so if it comes from there, other means are needed. The largest oil field is the Ghawar field. So how can you increase the production there? And is that the only place? We are so desperate for oil that the basic security is overlooked and there is at present Iran, Houthi forces and a few others who are very willing to hurt Saudi Arabia. So what more is needed, because when by November that increase is realised, some will take offence to this and that problem will possibly create all kinds of new problems. And we do not see enough information on that side of the equation.

And advice from me? Nope, I know next to nothing on that topic. I can merely see hurdles and optionally a personal belief that I see options, but that is not what the actual expert on the topic has. And the media? Solutions do not make their digital wallet fat, flames do that and in that view it is not a good idea to put flames close to oil, a mere personal view on the matter.

Have a great weekend.

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September 24, 2024 · 22:59

Two sides of technology

There are always two sides on any technology. The question is whether they are aligned or not. The first story is found at (at https://www.edgemiddleeast.com/ai/tsmc-and-samsung-consider-100-billion-uae-chip-projects) where the Edge Middle East gives us ‘TSMC and Samsung Consider $100 Billion UAE Chip Projects’, it all comes across as straight forward. We are given “Semiconductor giants TSMC and Samsung are in early talks to establish massive chip-making facilities in the UAE, potentially marking a significant expansion in global production.” It seems to me that this is a straight forward option, especially for the UAE. We are also given “develop potential chip projects in the United Arab Emirates, with investments that could exceed $100 billion. The discussions, which are still in the early stages, were first reported by The Wall Street Journal on Sunday” and this article ends with “Should these plans move forward, they would mark a significant milestone in the UAE’s efforts to position itself as a global technology hub.” The second article was initially from the Financial Times (but they are behind a paywall), as such I I cannot give the link, but the headline reads ‘UAE president meets Joe Biden in push for more US AI technology’ where we are given “Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan seeks to formalise fledgling partnership between both countries” as well as “The United Arab Emirates’ leader met US President Joe Biden in Washington on Monday to advance artificial intelligence co-operation as the Gulf nation tries to secure easier access to US-made technology” and “The UAE is one of the US’s most important allies in the Middle East, but relations have been strained at times in recent years. Talks for a formal security pact with Washington have stalled, and Abu Dhabi was infuriated by what it saw as a lukewarm US response to attacks on the UAE’s capital by Houthi rebels from Yemen in 2022.” This is a dangerous time for America. The trivialisation of the Houthi terrorists will cost America dearly, it has before and it will cost America more than they imagined. You see, as I personally see it. There is a bigger fish. The option that China will play nice with Taiwan when there is a larger part of the $100,000,000,000 could give China the edge they need. And in this setting China will have several bonus options that would fall away from American. That alone would entice China to play nice with Taiwan to a whole larger degree. Is it viable? I honestly cannot say as the media is massively anti-China. Ask Huawei is you doubt my view on this issue. 

How could this happen?
There are several options, but if I were a betting man China would offer Taiwan independence UNDER China. Would Taiwan accept this? I don’t know, but if China would enable a diplomatic solution via the United Arab Emirates it could happen. China is more interested in the collapse of America sooner and will hand an independence ‘option’ to Taiwan. And the setting with Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan gives China a larger option to manouver. It is my believe that the Biden administration is driven to not make my speculation happen and for that it needs a slice of the UAE AI business and America will offer whatever it has to to make their entrance a done deal. On the positive side if Microsoft gets involved there is every chance that their affinity to mediocrity will blow up in their faces and the American stance becomes a whole lot weaker. This is not ‘fear mongering’, this is merely the view I have on Microsoft and the blunders they have made in the recent past. The UAE embraces perfection, as such Amazon (AWS) or Google would be a much better fit. But this is not about bashing Microsoft (it is fun though). The AI investments that could be coming the way of the UAE, there is a larger field. We hear all about ‘AI’ and the developers (Amazon, Apple, Google, et al) but most forget that Huawei has its own system. The FusionMind AI platform. I don’t know how good it is. Whatever the media tells us, once Huawei gets to demonstrate their system. No matter what others think, if the UAE considers it good enough, the American race for revenues goes in the wrong direction (for America that is). Don’t ask me how good or how bad the Huawei system is, because I have never seen it, but I know about it and the media is doing its best to ignore Huawei, but I am not convinced that this is a good move to make. The IT people (like me) want to assist people with solutions that WORK. I do not think it is a good idea to ignore the Huawei system. And I believe that neither Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates are ignoring the Huawei technology side of it all. For me the larger setting isn’t merely what works, but it is the dim witted view of accusing Huawei whilst not offering ANY clear evidence. That is the larger stage and if Huawei, or the Chinese government can convince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan to allow Huawei to present their case, American will have additional worries to deal with. I personally think that Google AI with Mandiant would be personally the better option. That is merely because I have have limited exposure to AWS and no exposure to Amazon security solutions. So my view is slightly biased. In all this, Google needs to convince the UAE that they have what the UAE needs. After that Saudi Arabia should be shown these solutions too (likely they have already seen them).

When we see these sides, one side is the technology, the other side is the software and when we optionally see these chip solutions the bigger winner becomes whomever sets the premise of their software to the hardware provided. I personally hope for Google (I am biased here), but the end game is nowhere near concluded at present. I reckon the Biden administration is hoping for a memorandum of intent, but that is something we might see on Wednesday. So keep looking.

It is almost Wednesday here and Vancouver is following in 18 hours. So anything is possible. Have a great day.

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