September 11, 2019 · 11:45

A gaming shift

I am watching on how Google and Apple are starting their stream service. I don’t expect to sign up (no way will I get to Apple), but there is also another side to it all and I am not sure whether we realise this.

I might be outspoken not into Apple Arcade, yet this is largely because I am an android man. I still have my very first iPad, the anonymous one, without camera’s and such and it has done its job for over 8 years. Yes, I have games on it and foremost, the one game I still play is Blockheads, even after all these years. Like Minecraft it is fun escapism playing whilst my mind works out puzzles in the background. On the iPad 1 I also still play Sudoku and a few other games, on Android my life limits me to a few games, Gems of War being the most outspoken one.

The use of problem would be the wrong word, there is no problem, and the limitation that these systems show is the stage of real gaming. The bulk of people might be happy with Candy King, or some equivalent, the bulk might like Pokémon Go, yet is it gaming or connected mini games?

The question is more important than you might think; the question becomes what is real gaming to you? For a lot it is FIFA, NFL, NBA and NHL games and that is fine, for me it will be RPG’s. I consider Minecraft to be a game that I really love playing, yet true gaming is more and we forget the elements that we loved when we go for the short term. The Nintendo Switch makes games truly mobile, yet until I played some of the streaming games to confirm this, they might be the only one that still embraces real gaming on the go. You see, it only hits you when you see (or see again) the cut scene movies of games like God of War 4 and Horizon Zero Dawn to realise the massive journey you took to get to the end. You do not comprehend the journey until you have been on it, and Guerrilla games made more than an effort, it created an origin story so titanic in size and so overwhelming in completeness that you wonder who could ever equal it. The Horizon Zero Dawn (HZD) movie journey is well over 5 hours and that is merely the cut scene and stories that are part of a hundred hours of gameplay. I reckon it can be done sooner, but you might lose out on seeing just how amazing that world was. Santa Monica Studio did the same with God of War 4, it was a story well done and when you get to the end and see the twist [no spoiler given], and you end of merely sitting back in amazement giving yourself a loud ‘What the fuck?‘ Excelling games do that, Bethesda games do not give us that to the degree the previous two did and they still make excellent games. There is a balance in place in high level gaming, there is a balance, yet it seems to be like a seesaw, what one side gets the other loses. We might have all kinds of issues with like of Ubisoft, yet their graphics and stories have always been really good. Yet it is the other side where they lost largely on gameplay. The earlier mentioned two had both right, both gameplay and story, making the seesaw a much larger version than the one Ubisoft, EA and Rockstar Games have.

Don’t think this is a negative thing; we do not always want RPG games. Even now, lacking storyline, I would not be able to resist playing MediEvil again as it comes to PS4, that game was the reason I bought the PSP when it launched in 2005, I loved the game on the first PlayStation and thoroughly enjoyed it again on the PSP. It is the rewarding feeling of gaming you get making you want to play it again, if that did not exist, we would not have 8 versions of Mario Kart, yet they are not the only one offering that game. I still miss the challenge and fun that Wacky Races on the Dreamcast gave us 19 years ago. In equal measure from that same year there was Fur Fighters, also on Dreamcast (the PS2 version was a disaster). So there is more than a storyline in play, the satisfaction of gaming goes in several directions. It is the challenge of gaming that has a few packages, for RPG story is the overwhelming one, yet without challenging gameplay the game falls flat. In shooters and platform games it is more than the challenge, the shooters offer it most often through multiplayer. For Honor is an excellent example, it is below par on single player due to the lack and often repetitive mission gameplay in single player mode, yet the multiplayer mode is an amazing almost unparalleled experience.

This is where we stand in gaming and I fear that both google and Apple will fall short of that. Even as Apple Arcade comes out in 8 days, it seems that the list of 100 games will remain hidden for those same 8 days, yet there is also the challenge, I do believe we will find games we love, but when you consider the Australian price of $8 a month, would you pay that every month just to keep one game you care for? The games are said not to be sold individually and the 100 games might sound nice, yet what happens in month 3? There lies the issue for both Apple and Google, to entice a population not to play games, but to become gamers and I wonder if they can pull it off beyond year 1, that applies to both Apple and Google. Part of it was exactly what I predicted a long time ago two years ago and Beneath a Steel Sky (a 1994 original) was good gaming and with the reduced resources needed, the game would work well on any mobile or system. My issue is not with newly released golden oldies, it is the ability to embrace those playing games and turn them into actual gamers, they are not the same goal and both Google and Apple will have to rely on the growing number of actual gamers to do better than merely survive. Even as we see that Ghost Recon: Breakpoint comes to Google Stadia, so there are larger games coming to cloud based streaming and here we get the initial issue. So far I personally have had at least one hiccup a day on Netflix, even as it was merely a second it was not an issue, yet in gaming it is a much larger issue, it becomes almost literally the death of you. How will you react then? I believe that congestion is going to be a much larger issue until 5G is truly deployed to the largest extent. One could argue that overall at present the Microsoft Game Pass is too good value for the price and at that point is becomes the break on the acceleration for streaming games.
So what is the issue?

I believe that we face a larger lag soon enough, I believe that there is a danger that the increase of high end RPG gaming will take a hit, as people embrace Google and Apple, the development of games will be towards gaming that includes both new systems; and there is where I see the negative impact. Yes, the two earlier mentioned game makers will still make their games, but a whole range of other developers will try to find a solution that includes all systems and I feel that there is a danger to the development of excelling RPG games; it will decrease and that makes me sad.

Still, the streaming world does have its own challenges and that is where we see the benefit, whenever a challenge is met and surpassed games benefit and that is the trade-off that works on our behalf, there us a whole range of games that were originals and most are now forgotten, yet streaming games could bring them back. 7 cities of gold, Sentinel returns, Fur Fighters, Wacky Races, Shadow man, System Shock 2, Millennium 2.2 and this list goes on for a while. Games that will never be forgotten and could also lead to new game innovation. Even later games like MGS4, guns of the patriot showed innovation at the very end of the PS3 life cycle. People like Richard Garriott who innovated RPG gaming via the Ultima series. People like Peter Molyneux who started with Magic Carpet and Dungeon keeper a new age of gaming, they inspired some of the game makers that followed; the past is full of game makers who inspired others. Yet, this is not the end; these games could also inspire the next phase of gaming. I believe that through limitations we see the creation of new options. If there is one lesson learned from the CBM64, then that would be the one. We embrace gaming because we get to a place we did not think would be possible, Ubisoft showed that when they created Assassins Creed 2, we embraced the first one to some degree because of originality, the second one because we never believed it possible. I believe that this is the part we forgot about when Xbox360 went to Xbox One and PS3 when to PS4. Even now as PS5 and Xbox Two are coming, we still see merely a larger version of what was. It is games like Cyberpunk 2077 that will show what would be possible, in the same way that MGS4, guns of the patriot did on PS3.

With Streaming we will see new hurdles and we will meet innovative game designers that will get past that boundary showing us something we never saw coming, that is the stage the true gamer embraces, it goes beyond we thought we could and that is also why we look with eager eyes to Santa Monica Studio who surpassed itself three times over with every God of War release, the same we hope to see with Guerrilla games and a new Eloy story (the ending game ample consideration there), yet in the end we do not merely want to see more, we want to see more and something entirely new. In that regard CD Projekt RED delivered beyond amazing in Witcher 3 and is as far as we can tell, surpassing excellence again with Cyberpunk 2077. These few makers all delivered 90%+ games, games for true gamers.

And true gamers like junkies need their 90%+ games to stay alive (to coin a phrase), it does not make other games unwanted, it does not make a game like the crew bad (well it does make it below par), yet it does make us wonder how far that game could have been taken, or perhaps what would be possible when it was upgraded to the max, or perhaps what happens when a 97% game like GTA5 is no longer merely is based in the fictional state of San Andreas, but has the ability to cover the entire USA, how many thousands if not millions more gamers would it attract? Streaming might make that possible, and as such streaming will be here to stay when it becomes a serious piece of work, yet in that when we see the wrongful (not incorrect) quote in the Guardian “Arcade, which was demonstrated during the unveiling of Apple’s latest iPhones on Tuesday, is an attempt to turn the mobile gaming industry on its head and add an extensive new revenue stream to the company’s books” (at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/sep/10/apple-arcade-launch-netflix-for-games-will-cost-499-a-month) there is a danger that a lot of people forget what streaming could offer, the question becomes to what degree are either Apple and Google aware that this playground for true gamers is equally open for them to dig into?

In a lot of places we see: “Bethesda Softworks is providing a gaggle of titles for Stadia’s launch later this year: “DOOM 2016,” “Rage 2,” “The Elder Scrolls Online,” and “Wolfenstein: Youngblood.”” which is merely a new place to play games already released, yet the corner of what was not done has not been turned yet and I hope that we will see more than merely more of the same, streaming could potentially open a market and give a game that PC’s and consoles cannot offer. Yet until those are actually released, we will have to wait to see just how rewarding that platform actually is, we will know the initial in a week, but it is the second wave that decides on just how successful these platforms will be, it is where the consoles cannot go, that is when streaming services will prove their worth and their place in the gaming community.

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September 10, 2019 · 11:31

The die is cast

it started Yesterday (well, it started earlier), the Guardian gives us ‘British-Iranian relations strained as oil tanker is seen off Syria‘, with the by-line “Adrian Darya, previously called Grace 1, photographed near Russian navy facility“. the starting quote “Britain is seeking to establish whether Iran has sold oil to Syria in breach of written undertakings given by Tehran to authorities in Gibraltar“, we can go with the speculative ‘yes’ on that answer, but it is not a given at present. The quote “Since leaving Gibraltar the ship had taken a peripatetic route towards Syria, but was last photographed off the Russian navy port of Tartus in Syria. TankerTrackers, a firm that monitors oil tankers, has seen no evidence that its 2.1m barrels of oil have been discharged” is no guarantee that it is not happening, or that it will not happen.

The issue is not the oil, the issue is what Al Jazeera reports (at https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/saudi-arabia-enrich-uranium-190909144444127.html), I tend to be in favour of ‘Saudi Arabia wants to enrich uranium but the US may not like that‘, I support the setting as the EU and the US no longer have any balls in dealing with Iran and Saudi Arabia has no choice but to be ready to deal with Iran. It is the consequences of inaction. We see the quote: “Saudi Arabia wants to enrich uranium for its nuclear power programme, the kingdom’s new energy minister said on Monday, potentially complicating talks with Washington about an atomic pact and the role United States companies might play in the arrangement.” We might think that this is the barricade that works, but you would be wrong, both Russia and China are chomping at the bits to deliver high technology power plants that can work with enriched Uranium, this is a billion per place and Saudi Arabia would need 4 straight off the bat. Two power plants to power the growing power needs of Neom City and One for Riyadh power needs and one for other power needs. Do you think that in this age where American and European abilities are downgraded time after time that both Russia and China do not stand a chance? The fact that in both the EU and US larger discrimination and anti-Saudi needs have been fuelled for almost two years, the Saudi government needs to find a solution that is best for Saudi Arabia, not a solution that makes them seem the nicest. That time has gone, that time was 2017, the actions of media since have shown that the anti-Saudi rhetoric is slightly too strong and the Saudi government knows that. In light of all information available, it is the Chinese government that has the strongest position of the three (when we include the US) giving them another benefit. The US has downplayed several parts and now that we see that the Chinese government is ready to step in, we also take notice of an earlier stage in October 2018 where the SCMP gave us ‘China may seek to boost ties with Saudi Arabia but it ‘can’t fill US arms sales gap’‘, I was never certain that it was ever completely true. I believe that China needed time to set things in motion, I also believe that in the gap between July 2018 and August 2019 they have been able to set that stage to a much larger degree and within a year that gap can completely be filled. One issue that was resolved was the Chengdu J-20, the Chinese answer to the F-35. the rumour is that the three weaknesses Canopy, fuselage and engines have been resolved, there was still some questions on the stealth coating, yet that would not prevent them from starting, there would merely be an upgrade of a delay in fulfilment of foreign orders.

With that larger issue out of the way, China is seemingly ready to hand out larger contracts, they might be in the running to aid Saudi Arabia in getting them on the road to keep the 50% promise of making SAMI products export ready, the question is which arms are the most viable ones at present. With the growing concerns and the fact that Saudi Arabia is ready to deliver gives a much larger concern that the US has been playing the wrong game for well over 2 years at present. Even now, less than a day ago, CNBC gave us ‘US wants energy dominance regardless of what happens to oil prices, deputy energy secretary says‘, a quote and a claim that is both flaccid and exaggerated. As such the quote: “The U.S. deputy energy secretary told CNBC Monday that America wants to achieve energy dominance regardless of what happens to oil prices” falls short on a few levels. It falls short not merely because of the additional “It just simply means that we are going to produce as much energy as we can, as cleanly as we can and as affordably as we can“, there is seemingly a line that goes from the US to all other nations, that is besides the issue that ‘clean‘ and ‘affordable‘ tend to be opposite in scope, clean power is not cheap and affordable power tends to be not clean. In there the balance is already out of whack when they want power creation dominance and if China is affirmative to the 4 nuclear power plants, the need for US power will fall to some degree, so the option of dominance goes out of the window. Not dealing with matters is what got the US in this stage, not dealing with Greece (via Wall Street), not dealing with Brexit (through arrogance), not dealing with Iran (through indecision) and not standing strong with their claimed ally (Saudi Arabia) has pushed them on a sliding scale of mind over matter. It is becoming more and more clear that nobody minds because the US no longer matters. As the EU and the US are downplaying the impact and chances of the next recession, or as the recession is used to create Brexit fear, we see a population that has had enough. That is the setting the US is facing and all the non-evidentiary stance on Jamal Khashoggi was not helping, that journalist’s missing cadaver has been milked for anti-Saudi media coverage for far too long.

In this stage, as we realise the factors we look at the stage where we see: ““We are proceeding with it cautiously … we are experimenting with two nuclear reactors,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said, referring to a plan to issue a tender for the Gulf Arab state’s first two nuclear power reactors. Ultimately, the kingdom wanted to go ahead with the full cycle of the nuclear programme, including the production and enrichment of uranium for atomic fuel, bin Salman told an energy conference in Abu Dhabi.” and his royal highness has to, he has little choice, it is not only because of the power requirements of the kingdom, Iran is still a threat and that threat can only be countered by having equal solutions at the kingdom’s disposal and in all this, the total lack of actual actions against Iran by both the EU and the US do not help matters. In this, when we consider “The tender is expected in 2020, with US, Russian, South Korean, Chinese and French firms involved in preliminary talks about the multibillion-dollar project” we need to realise that the US and the EU nations now have a disadvantage to this tender. So whoever wins the multi-billion dollar tender, the losers are going to get confronted on how their tender fell flat due to inaction. It also made me wonder on some of the processes and I know that the World Nuclear Association is the best source.

So I had a look at some of the information, and the stage is set at: “Uranium-235 and U-238 are chemically identical, but differ in their physical properties, notably their mass. The nucleus of the U-235 atom contains 92 protons and 143 neutrons, giving an atomic mass of 235 units. The U-238 nucleus also has 92 protons but has 146 neutrons – three more than U-235 – and therefore has a mass of 238 units“. With the centrifuge principle of “The counter current flow set up by a thermal gradient enables enriched product to be drawn off axially, heavier molecules at one end and lighter ones at the other” and when you consider the image I wonder if it is the most efficient path. I wonder what happens, when we consider “heavier molecules at one end” it seems to me that the outer part (heavier molecules) when it is siphoned off, more uranium could be processed making the process faster. It was just a thought I was having, I remain in a creative stage. There is equally the option to see other solutions when we consider the Roman bath houses and 2 phase compressors. They did not get to their destination in one step, the compressor goes from zero to 5 atmosphere, the second stage takes 5 atmosphere and pushed it to 25 atmosphere, in the old days it was a lot more effective, even now we see the path where the centrifuge at its speed can do it in one go, yet consider a centrifuge park with 50% more units, yet creating enriched Uranium at twice the speed. I am not sure if it works, but I do know that we need to upgrade the technologies to make the Iranian technology obsolete, making the Iranians stop their intended steps, or being able to take the steps to end their actions altogether. People might not like that approach, but the stages we now see involving the Syrian delivery, the Houthi arms and drone supplies, it is clear that Iran has no peaceful intent in any direction. It is our responsibility to choose, either we support Saudi Arabia, or we move out of the Middle East altogether. Either way

This matters, because if we are to stop Iran, we need processes that are more advanced to give the clear signal that the actions of Iran should no longer be tolerated. There are two options in any war approaching disagreement, either you overwhelm them or make their solution obsolete. We have seen that advancing stronger gives the option for a peaceful edge and that should always be embraced, that is as long as you are willing to use that advantage effectively, the EU and US have shown that they are unwilling to do that. So another option is required. That path is seen in the Al Jazeera article with “Reuters has reported that progress on the discussions has been difficult because Saudi Arabia does not want to sign a deal that would rule out the possibility of enriching uranium or reprocessing spent fuel – both potential paths to creating a nuclear bomb“, whilst the intent might sound noble, it isn’t. This solution will not work because no one has a handle on Iran and no one is willing to deal with Iran and that is where the problem lies. As long as Iran is around the problem remains that much has been shown several times in several direction, only the arrogant and delusional political players in the EU and the US are still of the mind that a nice solution can be found, the problem is that Iran has been most effective in tailoring to those ego’s and it is time to give light to those tools and find a way to stop Iran, we have to because their willingness to transgress on nuclear limits has now been shown three times over. That is seen as the New York Post gives us less than a day ago: “The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog confirmed Monday that Iran has installed advanced centrifuges and is moving toward enriching uranium levels — another violation of the 2015 nuclear deal brokered by world powers”. I believe that the best solution now is to make sure that Saudi Arabia gets to the Iranian destination faster, or we allow an open war with Iran, what would you chose? I believe that war is a last resort, yet I am willing to go there if needed, which makes me a better and more ample decider than either the EU or the US, indecision is the only agenda point they procrastinate on, a stage that is too dangerous for anyone at present.

 

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September 9, 2019 · 11:59

An Intellectual Property example, Part 2

Yesterday I gave you part of the introduction in story form, yet an RPG is far too large for story form (outside of the main quest), and when you consider that the Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition: Prima Collector’s Guide Hardcover is well over 1100 pages, you see the impact. I wanted to double that (at the very least) not merely through missions, but by adding additional forms of gameplay.

Premise

As the game’s introduction ends, we get the call to go home, or to just wander. The nice part of an RPG is that it is up to the player. No matter which call you make, there is now an added incentive to sleep. It was not there in Skyrim to the degree Oblivion had it and I called that back. In addition, too long without sleep gives the fatigue icon, yellow means 10% orange 15% and red 20% loss on power delay to regain magic, longer to hit with strength, diminished strength, speed, become slower and so forth. Fatigue is diminished 25% per hour of sleep, allowing for small naps until you get home, and when sleeping for over 8 hours fatigue goes to -10% (instead of 0%), in addition to that, when fatigue is red fast travel deactivates (just like when you are emcumbered).

Part 1

Part one towards the main quest happens when you sleep. In the dark, the black the void, your dreamless sleep is the introduction by Sithis himself. The Daedric lords are all gone, the oblivion plane is no longer connected which is due to the followers of Stendarr. Stendarr and its hatred of Daedra and all magic were able to almost completely sever the link with Oblivion, but Sithis is not of Oblivion, Sithis is of the void and there the choices start. He still sees in Valenwood where magic has links, but the rest is dark.

Your kills made him aware of you and now he reaches out. It is your choice to let the new world be, or to restore the old connections, but to do that you must recreate all the shrines to all the Daedric princes, balance can only be maintained when they are all there and one had been missing for too long [spoiler]. To regain the first shrine a new night mother needs to be sanctified, a new dark brotherhood chapter must be opened and the power of Stendarr must be diminished.

A this junction you can ignore that quest, you will not be contacted again, it was the last offer by Sithis. You will learn more, but it is up to you.

Lay of the land

Restoration is a lot larger than ever before. To make this work I needed to look on a larger scale. The Oblivion map was close to 6 by 6 miles giving us 36 square miles. To make this work we need to change Cyrodiil. Basically I changed the parameters to be 300%, making the map 18 by 18 miles, giving us 324 sqm. This is important as the map of Skyrim needs to become twice the size. The cities change partially accordingly, the imperial city due to placement becomes 900% larger, Skingrad 400% larger, Cheydenhal, Leyawiin and Anvil 200% larger, Bravil remains a village, a mere 50% larger. The lay of the land is important for the story as the quests will besides Valenwood and Elsweijr include the previous lands. There are larger changes and smaller changes.

In darkness we prevail

The Dark Brotherhood has a lot of quests, the story is that the brotherhood was no more when the night mother was destroyed, Sithis will give signs to find the knowledge to create a new one. Yet before that can be done, you need to find people. The first quest is the ring of souls, a person can only wear two rings and a necklace, which is important as magic is directly linked to imbued magical objects in the game and the danger of having no magic at all, is a disadvantage (or a challenge) on a few levels. People are more susceptible to magic (until more oblivion links return), and you are more protected against magic, yet you can still be killed. The ring of souls resides with Olava the Feeble in Whiterun (your first trip to Skyrim), the ring needs to be retrieved from her grave in Falkreath. It will also give rise to visit the old brotherhood sanctum where a dark brotherhood outfit awaits (her grave gives the information). With the ring of souls we can see the darkness of a person and only the true dark will help us find those people. In this case the people are randomly distributed (8 in total), because of population the best option is the imperial city to find at least one, but that is the new stage, I want to prevent people of merely making a run to completion, not everything is set in stone making the fun to replay the game again interesting. It also opens up more venues to track down.

When a person is contacted and found, the ring will trigger the conversation that person has seen it in his dreams and we see the first connection. The dark brotherhood needs a new home and none of the places will be available, the sanctum in Falkreath collapses when you leave and the others are no longer there. Your new disciple had always been a mason in the past, and can turn a house into the entrance to a sanctum, providing the right house is owned.

[Venture part] The venture part is there to do other things (essential to progress in a few ways).

Once we have enough serfs, enough cash and a place the serfs will start creating the sanctum with the mason.

The sanctum once, properly sanctified in blood (I had to go there) will open the new chapter, recreating a night mother Ocheeva (from Oblivion) will become the new Night Mother to serve Sithis again. The body needs to be found (a Blackwood mission) and that is merely the beginning.

Locations

The game is set in many locations and the stage is that if you choose the Daedric restoration path, you will learn that the guilds need to return to keep balance, there is also another part. Cyrodiil can have two guilds, the other places only one, and the mages guild will ALWAYS be in the Imperial city, the other guilds however are open to choice, One in Skyrim, One in Valenwood, one in Elsweijr and another one in Cyrodiil. The fact that you decide where also influences the games economy system. So we have the Mages, the Thieves Guild, the Dark Brotherhood, the Fighters Guild and the Guild of Necromancy (destroyed by Arch Mage Traven before Oblivion) [has spoiler links].

Each area has at least three options and more important, the stage of creating a den also has options (see later in this story). I set that stage so that people could find joy in playing this game again and again. As the games progress you will also learn that you have choices towards where a Daedric shrine is placed, there are however exceptions, the shrine of Azure is ALWAYS in Skyrim (it was a lovely statue), the shrine to Nocturnal is always underground and in the same area as the Thieves guild. Some shrines must be above ground, some underground and some are uip to the player. The stage is that 17 shrines need to be created/completed: Azura, Boethiah, Clavicus Vile, Hermaeus Mora, Hircine, Malacath, Mehrunes Dagon, Mephala, Meridia, Molag Bal, Namira, Nocturnal, Peryite, Sanguine, Sheogorath/Jyggalag, Vaermina and Mannimarco.

Mannimarco was not a Daedric Prince, but he gets ascended to the Oblivion plane in the Necromancer quest, the former actual prince was destroyed by Traven, and the Colossal Black Soul Gem contains both souls, but can only function with one. Another choice whether you want to clean Mannimarco and destroy the Necromancers, or clean Traven and create the Guild of Necromancy. The stage is also tiled in another direction. There are connections that do not work, for example you cannot be in the Mages guild and the Guild of Necromancy, or the Thieves guild. A dark Brotherhood member will not be accepted by the Thieves guild or the Mages guild, the fighters guild will not allow thieves either. It created the stage where you at best can be in three guilds at one time; it also sets a stage where some guilds are created much later, so the opponents you face will be stronger (optionally much stronger). At the end you are removed as a member and like Oleeva you become a revered elder or a similar title in any of the guilds you complete with an added bonus and in some cases a new place to live.

Home is where you can afford a mason

As you progress you can again buy places, but there is also a small hitch [unrevealed spoiler], so be careful of the choices you make, some houses can connect to a guild, some guilds are on their own and some places can be vacated. More importantly depending on the mason you have (there are 8-12) and the upgrade books you find you will be able to add look to a place you upgrade. And this is where the large red quest starts, it is like a red line through the game and even as you are only involved at the very beginning, you will be introduced to the term serfs. Serfs or slaves are a bounty in this game, as you complete quests you are optionally rewarded a servant. A servant is also a financial responsibility, so you can only get it when you have a bank mark, some can be made house servants, most are workers, some can become an assistant mason (roll of the dice) and masons in your service can become Grand Maesters. That requires upgrade books. The large quest is the creation of New Kvatch and you need to lay the foundation for the gate with your bare hands (and pick and shovel). The creation of that place will take up to 600 days and cannot be started until you have 10 work serfs. The mission is offered through the commerce chapter, or if you walk to where Kvatch was, there is a notice that preambles the quest.

Upgrade books are like skill books, but the text is in another colour and has images. There are several, one is always with the Kvatch gate (Iron portcullis and stone wall), there are the gates, Iron and Steel portcullis, Iron gates, reinforced wood gates, Steel gates, Dwemer gates, Elven gates Moonstone/Silver, Silver/steel portcullis, Malachite Silver gate and the Ultra Rare Aylied gate. They are required to complete works and get a much nicer and more imposing city, two books are required to create a Grand Maester and becomes unavailable for the rest of the game unless you find another mason to head your workforce (or train one that has a minimum skill level).

The books are dispersed in places, whilst the easier ones could end up in a book store, the higher ones are in heavy boss chests, or in undefined locations with a 1% chance. The impact is that as you get a different gate, New Kvatch will also look different, more importantly its economic value will increase by a lot, when the gate is completed there can be no change, so the choice is almost final, you can change your mind if the gate has not been completed, however change also means a restart of the gate and all used resources are lost.

As the economic stage of time played and money earned impacts you get a more stretched value of the game and there will be rewards too, in New Kvatch you always get a house and a statue, there are optionally additional rewards [unrevealed spoilers].

The Powers that be (in you)

There was a liking in Skyrim, but also a linear flaw and I tried to address this. Your power needs to be retained in new ways and additional ways (like in Oblivion), Strength is in Melee, in travelling (not fast travel) and mining. Mining is a new skill, as we need a lot of resources and this you get to do in your own time (literally so), to get stone you need to bash proper rock 20 times, when you increase a skill it will be 19 and so on. whenever you level up, you have the option to put a point into Mining, Mining will go from 20-19, yet you also get a Strength point, you can gain in total 20 points this way, which also translates to 200 health as well, whilst normally you merely gain 5 health. In addition, a serf needs twice the time of your skill, so as you upgrade they all upgrade as well.

Physical

Block, Heavy Armor, One-handed, Mining, Smithing, Two-handed improve Strength, only 20 points and only if at least four skills have one skill increase, except Mining and Smithing, which always results in a strength point of two skill levels were gained, endurance will auto level by one if Block or Smithing increased by +2 in total (one each suffices) and no more than one point.

Magical

The beginning has a lack of Magic and optionally the gamer is almost without magic. Yet here too we see: Alteration, Conjuration, Destruction, Enchanting, Illusion, and Restoration. Magica always increases as Destruction or Conjuration increases, or 4 others do. Magica is linked to Intelligence; however illusion and alteration will increase willpower +2 in will be required to get +1 willpower (automatic)

Stealth

Stealth gives us Archery, Alchemy, Light Armour, Lock picking, Pickpocket, Sneak, Speech. Here we increase both Stamina and Agility Light armour and Archery leads to Stamina, auto upgrades are Agility and Speed (Archery, lock picking, pickpocket and Sneak +5). Here too is a little snag, Agility and Speed, Archery is for both, lock picking and sneak only add to Agility and pickpocket is only towards Speed. You must have +4 in either one to get one, and +6 in both to get one additional point in both.

Generic

Stamina auto upgrades through walking, swimming, Archery and Light armour, it is harder to increase Stamina, yet the influence is stronger at is adds a truckload of options to Endurance

Speech is the only one that influences personality and is linked to successful conversations, in addition if at least three auto upgrades are a fact (from either: Endurance, Willpower, Agility, and Speed) luck goes up by one as well, still with a limit of +30 in total over the game.

This means that he gameplay results in a much more fluid person. You can try to manage the perfect person, but as levelling up becomes harder, the auto levelling also becomes more challenging.

This change was essential as I saw that over time the Skyrim increases became slightly less rewarding. This keeps the chase towards excelling skills much more intact.

I made no changes to the skills as such, merely added Mining with the added option that when your mining skills are above level 10, you can teach (for a price) the skills to your staff members (read: servants) and as such more resources are gained, and the rule from half speed is overcome to some degree. So as your skill is plus 10, serves will be at plus 5 and in addition any additional skill you bought them, additional new serfs down the game will still start at level 0, however whenever you add a skill, they add 2 per level until they are at par with all the other serfs.

New locations

To facilitate to the new set, another location is needed, there are Stone and ore quarries. The mining for gold, silver, moonstone malachite and so on still exists, but they are more rare to find and every location will yield a lot more (up to 2500 per location). Buying a quarry will be very expensive, findin one and not acquiring it (with guards) imply that it will be taken over and the bosses there tend to have a much higher threat and skill level.

Main Quest

There is little on the main quest, I do not want to hand out too much information. Yet the beginning is a given, there is only magic remaining in Valenwood, and the system also differs from the beginning, magic people are distrusted (speech -40, with 10 as minimum value) anywhere but in Valenwood and non-magical characters get -40 speech in Valenwood, again with 10 as a minimum value. The correction is that you need to resolve the mistrust and solve the actual main puzzle and as you progress in the game, each mission will remove one distrust point per complete quest. The mistrust also mean that guards and others watch you more closely (sneak skills gets reduced) and any wrongful action is punished more strongly, discounts fall away and so on. As certain situations are resolved, you will be regarded better and travel becomes easier, also there is a chance to increase in one way and decrease in another. Serving Stendarr will get you less trusted in Valenwood and additionally trusted everywhere else. There is a need to find balance which also influences gameplay, going all out being good or bad has benefits, but also gets punished in other places.

All this was devised in mere hours, it took 500% more time to type it all out and create tables and so on. I wanted to give a much larger option to halls (artisan halls) so that not going into the Daedric restoration would still have a much larger impact on gaming and give you a real truckload of challenges. That choice would not affect the New Kvatch or a range of other choices. The fact that the larger story is designed to be independent of other choices grants a player with much more exploration. Even though all the locations (cities) are there, the game was designed not to have EVERY location in place. For example there would only be 10 of each Ayleid Ruin (Cyrodiil and Valenwood only), Cave, Fort, Mine and so on and via the Season pass there would be a truckload more in Skyrim and Oblivion, it also would enable to get more created matter to be acquired (or offered). I also considered that Battlehorn Castle comes back with the added option that every guild completion also adds a bonus to that place as well as the option to overhaul the castle in other ways. So as you find enough better rated bows, the defending archers would be more powerful, swords and shields for guards and so on. As you gain more in one way, you also lose in other ways; less money means more hunting for goods to afford the workers. A system that includes more checks and balances makes the entire RPG game more rewarding as well as more challenging.

The Intellectual Property example

The example is not merely about how I devised IP; the power of real IP is a stage where you are able to give the reigns of your mind to your imagination. All the BS you read on discipline and excel based bullet points sound nice when you work for someone else, but your IP comes from the stage where they never had a clue to let creativity reign. When I gave my bosses in the late 90’s the idea of a website server where people can get their space and talk to one another with us in the middle was laughed away as it had no business function and it was not part of the mission statement. Interesting how Facebook did exactly THAT 4 years later (and more). Your imagination can get you the rewards you wished for as long as you are willing to let that part of you take control of you when you can guide it (usually out of office hours). It is that part that too many people lost, or never gained and that stops innovation a lot more than you realise. It is not a coincidence that I came up with close to a dozen markers on new IP, I merely learned not to trust those around me to give me a fair deal, most often by those with a ‘what if’ setting. Those people are merely selling what they have or acquiring at zero cost (a lesson I learned too late twice over).

 

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September 8, 2019 · 15:01

an Intellectual Property example, Part 1

There have been some messages regarding my claim to IP, fair enough! So let’s take a look at a few parts (it’s not all in one part) on creating IP. First off, this is no longer my IP, I gave it to Bethesda, yet as a creator I still get to work with it, especially as I never received any acknowledgement. That is fine; I do not blame them, as they are always busy. Anyway, I created this after the initial Skyrim release on 11/11/11, it came to me after I had completed the game twice, this was created late 2012 and it took me less than 2 hours to think through and several hours to type it all (around 10,000 words). I will spread it over two blogs and it not all the IP I sent to them will be there, but it will have a fair bit.

Introduction

It was a nice evening; the sun was starting to set on a farm that was on the border with Valenwood, half way between Verkant Hills and Ein Meirvale. The boy looked out over the garden, he saw that the crops needed a little more watering, yet there was no rain in sight. His parents would be away for another two days and he knew that he was supposed to water the garden. He got up from his chair to walk to the well and started to lower the bucket and fill the bucket, as he felt the weight of the water added to the bucket as it sank he started to turn the lever to get the bucket back, it took a minute when the bucket was back at the top. He grasped the bucket to put it on the ledge and suddenly his foot gave way a little, still holding the bucket he lost his balance and down he went, straight into the well, as he hit the water the cold water revived him and then he hit something hard and he lost conscience.

When the boy woke the first thing he realised was that it was not dark, the light that went down the well showed the water, but in the well he saw that the well was a lot larger. There was a walkway around the well, more important, some of the stones in the wall were luminescent, lighting up the room ever so slightly. He looked around and saw 4 doors. He relaxed for a moment and tried to get his bearings. As he walked in the shallow part of the well he looked up and was able to se the top of one tree, he realised that the tree was to the north, so the four doors each was in one direction. He decided to explore and saw that only one of the 4 doors did not have a lock, he entered. The room was relatively small with a table with a lock in the table; on the table was a book, and there was a piece of metal. He opened the book and saw the text. The book was about locks and it explained that he was looking at an iron lock pick. it told him that the lock pick could be used to open simple locks, as the lock was made from the same metal the pick would only damage to the smallest degree if he did something wrong and not be hurt if he did things right. He looked around and saw hat thee were much more light giving stones in this room, he could see decent details. The room was filled with symbols that he did not recognise, and there was the lock. The book showed several locks and made reference to steel, Dwemer metal, orsinium steel, Elven silver steel and Oblivion picks, more important on how some picks can only be used on some locks with the exception of magical locks that required arcane glass picks. He tried to apply the knowledge and on the second attempt and the lock it opened and he heard a sound, he looked on the floor and there was a steel pick on the floor. He looked around and saw nothing else. He left to return back to the well. He looked up and there was a lot less light coming down now. He looked at the room and noticed that as he stayed close to the wall that the room was more visible. He looked around and inspected the 3 doors, all showing the same lock. He opened the second door on the first attempt, it opened, yet he saw that the iron pick showed marks, he pocketed the iron pick and kept the steel pick ready. In the next room was merely a chest, a locked one and the steel pick had no issue opening it. in the chest was an outfit, the outfit was meant for a woman, so he left it, what was interesting were the bright green colours and the weave was really pretty, he had never seen a dress this pretty, not on his mum or one anyone, so rethought his action and pocketed the dress for his mum. There was also a chain, a necklace. He pocketed that one as well. The next room was the same, but now the outfit was for a man, It looked really nice and it also looked brand new, which was odd as they lived on the farm with their grandparents, they never had anything like this before. There was also a small knife which was not iron or steel, it was more orange and really sharp, he attached the knife to his belt and left the room. The last door was the same but the room was different. It was more like a long corridor. He walked through the room whilst observing it, at the end was a trapdoor. The trapdoor had a text “you will fall twice your height and you cannot return, it is the only exit“, he considered a few seconds and decided to take that fall, waiting two days in a place without food was not a nice idea. He landed on stones and the fall was not hard as he knew what had been coming. In this room there were all kind of weapons, there were swords, maces, axes and bows. There were quivers with arrows and on the table was a small box and there was a note, the box only had a ring and when he touched the ring he felt weird, he felt more, and more important he sensed a level of confidence. He read the note.

Honoured reader,

This is the ring of Mana, the ring still has magical properties even as magic has seemingly waned for the longest time. I remember my life in the Imperial city where magic was common, yet over time as I grew older the magi all lost their powers, magic fell away. I was a mere merchant, yet I was never treated wrongly by those with magic. I once held in pawn this ring who was owned by an altmer named Faelian. There was a rumour that he died, but the ticket is still out, and the ticket if paid the total of 150 coins must be honoured. He was once a nice man falling on hard times. I remain a man of honour. The ring instils a person with magic, now that there is no magic left and the fact that this ring still works makes it very powerful and very expensive. Do what you please; if you are here in this room, it is yours.

I took the ring and the moment I put it on I suddenly noticed a book, it was weird as I did not remember the book to be there. I read the book and as I read it I felt my hand growing warm, I did as the book instructed and from my hand came a long flame, it merely hit the wall but I was amazed, I was able to send flames flying. I looked around and as I noticed the door, I also noticed that there was a plank locking the door in place. I removed the plank and entered the next door, it was no longer a room, it seemed to be a grotto and there was very little light, there were torches by the door. I grabbed a few and moved on. I remembered how to sneak, but I did not know whether I was doing it correctly. I moved on slowly. There was the odd rat down here, they were a lot larger, but the sword was really good at dispersing them. I could see decent with a torch, but it gave away my position. I walked on slowly trying to use my ears as much as possible. It took an hour, the grotto was winding yet always in one direction. I came to the end with no option, yet in the corner of the end wall was a hole. I looked down and saw nothing; I dropped a torch and saw that it was almost the same distance as the initial drop. I listened and dropped down the hole. This was larger, but still going in a direction. It was close to 5 minutes down the new grotto when I heard talking. There was light up front and I dropped my torch losing the flames. It was hard to see anything, but I moved forward. As the voices grew louder I started to make things out. There was a tent with two men, one was wearing a uniform. They were talking about proceeds. There were coins on the table and a dead woman on the floor. They were stripping her of all her goods. The men were laughing and separating valuables. a few coins and a jewel went on the table, the rest was discarded. Then the men separated, they were bad man, one walked to the entrance of the grotto, the other one went into the tent, he was lying down, going to sleep. I sneaked slowly making sure not to make any sound. I also went to the entrance slowly, I had switched to the bow, it felt comfortable and I kept an arrow ready. I moved slowly and then I head the man at the entrance say “You were right there was someone else. Kill him!” I suddenly heard commotion in the tent as the man got up fast. I released the arrow and the man looked really surprised as the arrow went into his skull, I turned around to deal with the other man and he had already thrown an axe. I missed me but made short work of my bow. As he was closing in fast I acted in instinct, raised my hand and let flames rip, he screamed in agony as he was set ablaze. When he was dead I looted what I could and as I inspected the tent, I saw and opened the book the Firmament.

This is where we enter the final parts of the character.

Where we are

Welcome to Elder Scrolls Restoration, in this game you get the option to make change to Tamriel. The world has changed, several generations after magic left us, even more after the age of the returned dragons we are in a world where almost all are equal. The magi are not above us, the imperial city is no longer ruled by the mages guild. There is apparently still magic in Valenwood, but non magic people do not venture there, the rumours are just too awful. We were all given equality by Stendarr, Stendarr be praised, we can all become merchants, artisans and artists. The guards of Stendarr keep the street clean, the brethren of Stendarr kept the people healthy, the give medicine and they feed the poor who cannot care for themselves. It is a lovely world and we can do whatever we want to do.

It is here where you take your first steps and the first option where you can decide what to do next. You just have to go home and get some sleep and tell your parents in the morning.

Unless there is breaking news that is really important, part two tomorrow, where you learn more about how things started.

 

 

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September 6, 2019 · 12:09

Focal points

I am in a slightly darker stage, I got there myself and I will get myself from it as well. The first issue is the United Nations,

The Yemeni Jam

I never considered that I would one day be ashamed of the existence of the United Nations. The article (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/05/australia-may-be-complicit-in-war-crimes-if-it-supports-saudi-led-coalition-in-yemen-un) gives us: “a Saudi-led coalition that has starved civilians, bombed hospitals and blocked humanitarian aid as tactics of war, may be complicit in war crimes“, I will not go any deeper into it, as I reported on this in my article: ‘Unemployed or UN employed?‘, (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/09/04/unemployed-or-un-employed/), so doing that again is just doubling up (there is more in the article as well). The media has not released that report yet and I will dig into that one deep the moment I can. Part of this problem was given to the people by the Human Rights Watch in an article giving us: “The May 2019 report of an independent investigation by a Guatemalan diplomat, Gert Rosenthal, raised serious concerns about the UN’s handling of the human rights crisis in Myanmar. The secretary-general should promptly carry out reforms to prevent what the report called the recurrence of the “systematic” failures and “obvious dysfunctional performance” and to ensure individual accountability for those failures“, the problem is larger, even as the articles are all about showing just how exposed the allies of Saudi Arabia are, the word ‘Iran’ is only seen twice in the entire article. There are a multitude of acts that Iran is involved in and they do not reach the media to the largest extent, the unmentioned actions by Hezbollah in Yemen are cause for further worry in all this. Even as we get ‘The UN leadership has taken an important step to learn from its failures in Myanmar‘, we see only a part; the failure of the UN is seen all over the Middle East. Yemen, Syria, Jordan are only three of the places where UN actions fall short, or better stated they fall far too short.

Let’s also see the larger issue, the UN needs more resources and it needs the ability to act, both are presently in short supply. It is important to see that the entire matter is larger than presented, there are more issues. This does not absolve the connected parties, but the accusations become one-sided. There was enough doubt on some of the accusations against Saudi Arabia, but not all accusations are without merit, they need to be looked into, yet in that same setting there is an abundance of issues on the opposing sides to the Saudi coalition, less than 10 hours ago houthi forces fired a ballistic missile into Saudi Arabia, it never got that far and crashed in the al-Safraa region, as well as in Saada (both Yemeni), yet that is a part that does not make the news, in addition, the established fact that houthi forces have no options to create the ballistic missiles imply that Iran is still delivering them and a lot of that had not been mentioned by the media, and as such I want to get my fingers on that UN Report (especially after seeing that essay from Agnès Callamard).

The Conveyance of GGGGG

We see that the US s still playing its trade war game and it found a new tool. That tool is named Poland. Now, let’s be fair, any nation can use whomever or whatever they desire, need or demand to get their business done and there is nothing out there that Huawei is the only player, because they are not.

So why did I call them a tool?

That part is seen in a news article that gives us: “It was signed by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who’s visiting Warsaw for a ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of World War II, and Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. “We believe that all countries must ensure that only trusted and reliable suppliers participate in our networks to protect them from unauthorized access or interference,” according to the declaration, which doesn’t single out China or any companies“, you do not send the Vice President to Poland to implement a 5G solution, you do not send that man to introduce new technology; this was done. The article is all about implied and accusation towards Huawei on “prevent the Chinese Communist Party from using subsidiaries like Huawei to gather intelligence“, which still has not been proven after a few years and the one issue from 2011 was settled and adjusted for. In addition to all this, Mike Pence comes across as an absolute hypocrite when we see “using subsidiaries like Huawei to gather intelligence“, whilst places like Facebook have been spreading data like a prostitute with an STD to anyone willing to listen and store data (Cambridge Analytics anyone?)

The issue becomes even more hilarious when we consider the source FierceWireless. There we get ““Polish counterintelligence have detected certain actions, which might have been an espionage nature”“, a quote given by Poland’s president Andrej Duda, Apart from Polish counterintelligence being too stupid, I meant untrained to shut down the FSB/entrepreneur silver acquirers in Gdynia being one example and those individuals have been active since before 2002. I am basically stating the speculative situation where Polish intelligence could not find a clue unless it was spoon-fed and is it my speculative view that Mike Pence fed the Polish president some CIA reports of a highly dubious nature. so whilst we see the operative ‘which might have been‘, there is a 87.332% likelihood (roughly) that Polish Intelligence can too often not differentiate between FSB, Chinese MSS, Polish Students and Russian Entrepreneurs (Russian Mafia is such an overused term). I have to admit that I have not bothered to look into Polish abilities after 2003, yet in those days SIGINT in Warsaw really did not add up to anywhere near the needed level they needed to be.

The problem for the US is not that they have 5G equipment; the issue is that it is too inferior at present. It is the price of iterative technology versus innovative technology (a fact I highlighted on numerous occasions) and Huawei has been the innovator for several years now. In this setting we see the accusations of US being nothing but a bully going up against a tech giant that has at present shipped over 200,000 base stations and the delay that some governments are creating (because they know not what they do) will hinder them as per 2021 a lot more than they realise. There is now an additional shift happening. There are early indicators that the Huawei offices in Saudi Arabia have been part of a larger group that are making progress on getting Pakistan on 5G using Huawei, even as the sources are unconfirmed (read: not super reliable), the stage that India now has it that the 3 year delay because of the Huawei issues would give them additional set-backs as well. Not to mention that certain new 5G IP that is openly for sale will also foster additional speed for Huawei in other ways. Huawei now has the created stage to directly instigate advancements to a global community of over 400 million small businesses whilst these players all get to have a larger stage on their own creation of awareness, visibility and marketing. That power directly to the business will leapfrog business in places like India faster and faster (the largest beneficiary when they get it), when that door opens places like IBM and Google will see a loss of revenue growth and a dip in their data soon thereafter, with the Princeton Digital Group (PDG) now in the stage of building their data centres in China and Singapore, more options will open up outside of the US, more important the connections that the joint venture has created with 21Vianet will change a lot more heads in the coming year. I doubt that the centre will be ready before the end of 2020, but there are larger clusters now being made ready outside of the US and Huawei will benefit a lot more than anyone else at present. In addition to that the Colocation Saudi Arabia Data Centres (19) as well as the Google Data Centre (upcoming) changes the cloud even further, with the US losing the monopoly it once had we see a shift and the consideration that data becomes a currency. That seems outlandish, but it is not, it is merely the next step and 5G is essential to that part of the racetrack, a racetrack that the US tried to grease, making it a slippery place to be and the consumer market is waking up to that danger. These elements are visible out there via a whole range of openly visible sources and published agreements.

In the end the conveyance of 5G is starting to get an additional pool of players that are openly out there growing business ventures and those ventures are not in the US. That what the US feared the most is now slowly becoming reality.

The larger concern is not merely these focal points, it is how they take resources away from places where focus needs to be, the actual and proven transgressions by Iran, even as it is removing more and more limits on their nuclear programme, we see Forbes giving us the part that matters to the US, or better to US corporations. the headline ‘War With Iran Would Be Disastrous And Enormously Costly‘ is true on both sides and even as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and  National Security Advisor John Bolton are all for military actions (to some degree), we need to see two parts. The first is that corporations want a peaceful settlement and the media is not mentioning large issues with Iran on several levels, the second is that with a debt of well over $22 trillion ($22,500,000,000,000,000) there is no money for a costly war. The US is playing the paper tiger and the slowdown that they are creating in the US-China trade war is having a much larger issue, so the US is depending on tools to do the work for them and even as Poland is on their side, Greece is ready to embrace Huawei with 5G because of the economic momentum they gain. These are merely two of a much larger pool of issues, basically the US needs to fight a war on two fronts (China and Iran) whilst they are out of money, options and technology, a setting that seemingly implies a war but without soldiers and without weapons. It is funny, but this reminds me of a Star Trek episode from 1967 called A Taste of Armageddon.

There the two players have decided on a virtual war to keep their cultural heritage safe. The problem is that both need to agree on the rules, so we see in the translated reality a UN SC versus UNIFIL setting. The United States Security Council intervenes when two parties agree (MFO), the United Nations intervene when two parties disagree (UNIFIL). I personally was in the first force in 1982 (Sinai). In this game we see the US trying to play a virtual game, whilst the evidence is not there, so they rely on tools. In addition this virtual game is not played because China and Iran both disagree on matters and the US cannot afford to send troops and wage a super expensive war.

All elements come to blow in the two given focal points, so until the other players are willing to deal with Iran, there will be no action leaving the pressure on Saudi Arabia, the UAE with Yemen in the middle. Until the US gives actual and factual evidence the 5G stage is moving towards China (Huawei) more and more and all those who support the US will see a slowdown on their future economies and it making more governments reconsidering the Huawei solution. It is optionally seen as a war on two fronts (US vs Iran and China) as well as two dimensions (economy and technology) whilst at present it is almost a given that the US will lose both of them.

The second part was given by the South China Morning Post in July when they reported ‘Nearly 60 per cent of Huawei’s 50 5G contracts are from Europe‘, 28 out of 50 chose Huawei. All in all there is a tactical problem in the US and it is getting worse, the moment that they act against Iran too late is the day that whomever is in the Oval office will have to publicly admit that they would decide to signing an economic trade agreement with Iran. I wonder how Israel and Saudi Arabia will react that day, because it will redefine a lot of global lines that day.

 

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September 5, 2019 · 14:50

The new politics

I still feel shivers lately when people like Jeremy Corbyn refer to the UK as a democracy. We could overly vocal voice that leaving democracy to an anti-Semite is slightly too uncomfortable. To illustrate this I refer to the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45030552), The quote: “In April 2019, the Sunday Times reported that Labour had received 863 complaints against party members, including councillors. The newspaper claimed leaked e-mails it had seen showed more than half of the cases remained unresolved while there had been no investigation in 28% of them. It said fewer than 30 people had been expelled while members investigated for posting online comments such as “Heil Hitler” and “Jews are the problem” had not been suspended. Labour disputed the reports while Jewish Voice for Labour, a newly constituted group supportive of Mr Corbyn, maintained the number of cases being investigated represented a tiny fraction of Labour’s 500,000 plus membership.” is central here. I would accept ‘the number of cases being investigated represented a tiny fraction of Labour’s 500,000 plus membership‘, yet in political places, this is too much headway and too much festering, as such there is a debilitating level of mistrust when these issues are not investigated, and with almost one third not being investigated, the issue is a rather large one. Then we get to BBC Panorama’s “Mr Corbyn’s communications chief Seumas Milne – had interfered in the process of dealing with anti-Semitism complaints“, which in itself is a clear indication that the stage is much larger than we are led to believe. The BBC In August 2018 gave additional visibility not merely to his links with Terrorism, the quote: “critics have pointed out that a photograph from the event appears to show him standing opposite the graves of Atef Bseiso and Salah Khalaf, two senior PLO officers who were accused of links to the Munich attack and were assassinated“, we now have two options. Either Corbyn was played, or he is too sympathetic towards terrorists, in either case this is not some path to peace as the quote: “he had attended the event in Tunis as part of a wider event about the search for peace” was given. So either he got played (which I would accept to some degree), or he has too strong ties to extreme anti-Israel groups, either way the man should not be allowed in UK politics.

This is not merely about Jeremy Corbyn; this is a much larger setting. The setting is European. You see there is a shift going on and it is a very dangerous one. The UK is and should always be a Monarchy, as a monarchy the UK looks after ALL its citizens, rich, poor, well off and anyone not well off. This is opposing the European model which is overwhelmingly a Corporatocracy, more dangerously, it has in the last three years instilled a much stronger stage of corpocracy and these two are not the same. Let me explain.

A corpocracy is a corporate bureaucracy, characterized by ineffective management (EU Gravy train anyone?)

This is important, because this is a very dangerous stage, it affects democracy and more important deflates the long term chance that any democracy can be effectively applied. This is pushed by three parts; corporations, interest groups and what I call the Jackal gang.

I do not have to explain the corporations. The interest groups is another matter, here in one example we see in the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/no-deal-brexit-food-shortages-brc), in the example we get Andrew Opie, the director of food and sustainability of the British Retail Consortium telling us: “Our assessment is based on discussion with our members, who move fresh food every day, and the likely disruption“, as well as “We modelled that with our members who have told us there will be disruption to fresh food“, these statements were casually accepted. Yet WHO checked and critically investigated ‘We modelled that with our members‘, modelling implies algorithms, modelling implies a state of data analytics, dash boarding and optionally clear reports. Who checked those? Andrew Opie? He has one goal, to keep markings for his members as high as possible and Brexit gets in that way. He is not alone; there are dozens if not hundreds who have been playing that game playing the fear monger card again and again in the last three years. How much famine was there in the UK in the 70’s and before? This is not about supply, this is about expedited margins and the media is not telling the people this, they are not investigating this to the degree they should. The people are merely pushed into fear towards remaining in the EU and that gravy train is too expensive for all of us. The EU has well over €3 trillion debt and there is no path that leads to any exit, not for generations and this benefits the banks, it benefits the people on the EU gravy train, it does not benefit small businesses, it does not benefit the people and there is no end in sight. Brexit was the first clear step to make things better for the British people and the people in the commonwealth in the long term, yet the US, corporations and the IMF will not entertain it, they have too much to lose.

And this is not over, it is about to get worse. We see this in the Financial Times (at https://www.ft.com/content/0ff70e24-cef8-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f) even as it seemingly starts low key with “Christine Lagarde has called on European governments to co-operate more closely over fiscal policy to stimulate the stuttering Eurozone economy” which changes tune as we get: “aimed at rich economies like Germany and the Netherlands, she said governments who “have the capacity to use the fiscal space available to them” should spend on improving their infrastructure“, she did not mention some balance of infrastructure and reducing debt, no reducing debt is off the table. And as we get: “The central bank could “direct” its corporate asset purchases towards green bonds once the EU and other regulators have agreed on a common framework for green finance“, which is the foundation for another Stimulus, a plan that failed twice is now again being used to create more debt and pushing what seemingly was once a democracy into a corpocratic Corporatocracy, a stage where nations are no longer in charge, corporations are and we see that push more and more, the fact that freedom of choice in the UK is no longer honoured, as well as the fact that freedom of choice is now regarded as a natural disaster is a clear stage on that road.

Voicing it into a stage where it’s called ‘fiscal stimulus‘ creating the regard that the ECB needs to be to be ‘agile’ in facing economic trouble is merely a relabelled stage where Wall Street and its banks are deciding what Europeans and Brits are allowed to do and short sighted politicians are actually handing them the national keys to do just that. In the age of an aging population that is even more dangerous, for the mere reason that the debts cannot continue a stage of retirement, making the validity of aged people almost obsolete. Again this is all in the view of Corporatocracy; for them the bottom line is margins and profits, to get that 100% needs to be an enabler or a consumer, the rest has no value and we are pushing more and more in this direction.

The Washington Post (at https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/lagarde-defends-european-central-bank-stimulus-at-hearing/2019/09/04/17abb148-cf10-11e9-a620-0a91656d7db6_story.html) gives us part of the Corporatocracy setting.

In the line “uncertainty over tariffs has sideswiped the 19-country Eurozone as businesses delay investments and new orders“, the fact that any delay has that much of an influence on American needy people is almost too unacceptable. This is more than just the ‘turmoil from the U.S.-China trade conflict‘. We can (speculatively) consider the line: “it could disrupt business dealings between the U.K. and the 27 remaining members“, which in light of “Britain is currently scheduled to leave the European Union. If that happens without a divorce agreement to smooth trade” is not about ‘smooth trade’ at all, this is about managed maximised margins, something Wall Street relies on very fucking heavily, so the entire stage where the new ECB ruler is not one of the other banks, but the previous sceptre wielder of the IMF is a much larger issue, it is also a case that the US is a lot more in charge of Europe that we think. Consider the amounts of debts and the fact that no one has that much money. A stage where two banks lend each other on paper $2 trillion, whilst neither has the funds. It is one situation that will lose control more and more and the important questions are not being asked. When we see Francois Villeroy de Galhau (Governor of the Bank of France), Klaas Knot (ECB policy maker) and Madis Muller (ECB policy maker) are a few of a growing group of people opposing stimulus (read: massively sceptical), whilst the one in favour (former IMF) is now President elect of the ECB. The one doesnot imply the other, yet the stage where we see “resumption of bond purchases now would be disproportionate to economic conditions” is merely one option, there might be more, but stimulus is what the US and a corpocratic Corporatocracy requires to keep the margins and the people get to pay that invoice. More importantly the lack of oversight and the lack of transparency gives sway for the ECB bank to do whatever it wants, whenever it thinks it needs to.

In what kind of a democracy did Europeans sign up for that?

Corporatocracy

I mentioned that in an earlier blog, it is a state where corporations decide on matters and that is what we see to the much larger extent at present. It is an age where social securities collapse, housing is close to redundant and the age of age discrimination is at an all-time high. All issues visible to a larger extent. I mentioned a few other parts earlier in this article and that is merely the beginning. I needed to make this mention because it is time to explain another phrase I threw your way.

The Jackal gang

This is a group of facilitators and exploiters. The Jackal gang is pretty much everywhere, the problem is that the intentional ones are not the same as the beneficiary players. Let me explain the difference. There are vultures, which are pure carrion eaters, they devour whatever is no longer living (or too close to death to see the difference), with vultures we see a group of people who drop down on companies pronounced dead, or basically no longer serving and they take the pickings. This is the foundation of Vulture funds as well, Argentina being an excellent example in the past and they are about to become a repetitive example soon again. The 2001 default is one stage where Vulture Funds swept in to get nice pickings. Let’s face it, the Argentinians decided to go this way (no one else was offering). Opposing the Vultures are the Jackals, they are like Vultures carrion eaters, yet there is another side, Jackals also take on the sick and the weakened, in a pack they can take down a larger opponent and because the opponent was not dead the pickings are a lot better. In this example the Gravy Train (a first class experience that is always on the road with all the amenities); the gravy train is a large behemoth, it has all kinds of connections. There are subsidised needs, there are research and grant needs and there are logistical needs as well as operational ones. In this stage we see the beneficiary ones; they are merely offering a service like a hotel, lunch services, dry cleaning and so on. They are merely services that a person needs to rely on, yet in another stage when it is a catering service that is ALWAYS called on, or a mother organisation that gets all the contracts, we see the Jackal group. These people are all linked in one way or another and that is how the Gravy train operates and there are large amounts of money involved. To get you a more apt example, we look at the ECB and its part in the Greek financial tragedy (definitely not written by Sophocles).

Here we need to consider that the Securities Market Programme threatens the ECB’s legitimacy as the potential fiscal role is an inappropriate activity for an independent central bank. Some actions are valid as well as appropriate. when we see “In the event of a wholesale creditor run based solely on self-fulfilling expectations, it is reasonable for a central bank to intervene and act as a lender of last resort to financial institutions that would otherwise be solvent” we see an appropriate act. Yet in case of “The failing of the institution is that it is not credible that it is willing to purchase enough of the debt to contain the run. Unfortunately, the ECB’s insistence on secrecy with respect to the programme is particularly damaging. It is widely believed that the average discount to face value paid for the Greek debt acquired (prior to August at least) was no more than 20%. The national central banks appear to have sought out the lucky counterparties. And, the ECB won’t say who they are or how much they paid” is a stage where there is no transparency, the gains are not disclosed, there is a failing on managing the debt and the matter goes from bad to worse (source: CEPR’s policy portal, Anne Sibert). The issue was also illuminated in ‘Buiter, Willem (2009), “Recapitalising the Banks through Enhanced Credit Support: Quasi-Fiscal Shenanigans in Frankfurt”, Maverecon, Financial Times, 28 June‘.

A matter that should have been dealt with to a much larger degree now as this goes all the way back to 2011, the fact that another stimulus is coming lacking transparency is a huge deal, it implies that trust in the ECB needs to be revoked and written off (read: discarded).

I grant you from the very beginning that the this is a very complex matter (and I am all out of Economic degrees as I never had one), yet I know data and a lot of it is not adding up, questions that should be on the front of everyone’s mind are seemingly not openly asked or the existence of the questions are denied. The entire issue of Brexit as it is playing out is less about democracy and too much about the politics of pleasing large corporations, there are too many questions and quotes are merely copied by the media and not questioned and that is a democratic failing of the largest degree. Jeremy Corbyn with: “Jeremy Corbyn became the first Opposition leader in history to block a general election on Wednesday night” (source: The Telegraph) might be the most visible example, but he is not alone, there are scores of MP’s playing the ‘remain’ card and as I personally see it they should all be investigated. Consider the direct description of treason: ‘the crime of betraying one’s country, especially by attempting to overthrow the government‘, is that definition and that is what we see here. It is the stage we see now and many sources in the media are all about ‘quoting’ and not about investigating, it is the failure that must be fixed. Well, perhaps the option is to award certain politicians with the William Joyce medal. I am offering the thought that Jeremy Corbyn is to be reviewed to see if he should get the first one, who is with me?

The new politics are not about claiming and presenting, but the need to show allegiance and give proper explanation on why exactly things were done. Would that not make political life a lot more transparent? The ECB could learn from that, so two herrings caught with one rod.

 

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September 4, 2019 · 11:36

Heaven is coming

Last weekend some (including me partially) decided to look at the Deep Dive Video of the upcoming Cyberpunk 2077 release. The video (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FknHjl7eQ6o) gives fair warnings, and to be honest, I initially decided to not watch all of it. Not because of anything negative. What I saw blew me away in several ways. If you think that CD Project Red broke the mold with Witcher 3, think again, I am watching something that could establish a totally new level of gaming excellence in RPG, optionally an entirely new level of gaming experience altogether. The video gives two play styles, direct and brutal, as well as stealth and hacking. It also gives caution that footage was edited to minimise spoilers, you get to see an advanced stage of the game, seeing characters ahead of schedule, and so I stopped watching soon thereafter the first time around. The little I saw overwhelmed me. This is what gaming excellence looks like; this is what EA, Ubisoft and several others never learned. To get a game this perfect takes time and even now in pre beta mode, this game surpasses anything brought to gaming before. If the story surpasses God of War 4 (and I have no doubt it might) this could optionally be the game of the decade.

The little I saw was that amazing at present; I watched a little more second time around and saw a little more and a lot I never expected. It is in part the Netrunner side that has so many options and both sides that have so much freedom that this game is not merely a game; it is what some might regard replay heaven, two different sides with different ways to get from one place to another. It seems that CD Project Red has taken time to maximise this world.

I would love to know how William Gibson values this game (the writer of the original Neuromancer), I wold love to see him play this game anywhere and comment on the game and how it aligns with his cyberpunk vision (he is after all the father of cyberpunk). I got into his book when EA created Neuromancer, that game on CBM64 was my introduction to Cyberpunk, so to see that concept mature in Cyberpunk 2077 into something beyond I thought possible, and the fact that any game could surpass the expectations of the imagination of any person to this degree is pretty much unheard of.

Yet, that is how it seems to unfold. For the most I will avoid spoilers to the max and I will when commenting on the game, it will be to the engine and control of gameplay and avoid (whenever possible) leaving any spoilers untouched. I believe that games like this require that as a game unfolds shaping the story, the way I saw it as an option also implies that one person’s spoiler is not another one, the implied impact of solo person (visceral combat) versus netrunner (hacker stealth) could be that large and it is rare to see that unfold. There is one additional part and that makes me happy. Cyberpunk is expected to be released 5 months after Death Stranding and that makes me happy (I feel certain that Kojima agrees), never before has Kojima faced an opponent on his level of gaming experience. The fact that there is genuine concern whether Death Stranding (Kojima) or Cyberpunk 2077 (CD Project RED) is the best is a new level of gaming. Never before was there any competitor going up against Kojima at the same time. The fact that CD Project RED could seemingly equal and optionally surpass Japanese gaming excellence is a new bar on gaming standards and it has been set to the highest possible level, the final days of XB1 and PS4 are going to be awesome, especially in 4K, what a way to end a console cycle!

Be properly alerted that only non-gamers and those who cannot game would avoid these two titles, or better stated the titles that will be on their system only (Death Stranding is exclusive PS4), and let’s not forget that as it seems to be now, the makers of Witcher 3 surpassed what they did there and that game ended up being a 93% result. A stronger message towards Ubisoft to focus more clearly on gaming excellence could not exist.

 

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September 4, 2019 · 11:26

Unemployed or UN employed?

I got hit by the news last night and I had to sit down to settle a little. Now, I already had plenty of issues with the UN, the first one is Eggnog Calamari (aka Agnès Callamard) with her essay, several parts of that being debatable (as I personally see it) and too much on speculation and what might have been. OK, besides that point there are plenty of other issues, yet the news yesterday takes the cake. The news (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/france-britain-complicit-yemen-war-crimes-190903103122355.html) giving the headline ‘US, France, Britain may be complicit in Yemen war crimes: UN‘ makes the UN now come across as a joke. Even as we get the same approach with their ‘secret list’ the quote: “The United States, United Kingdom and France may be complicit in war crimes in Yemen by arming and providing intelligence and logistics support to a Saudi-led coalition that starves civilians as a war tactic“, it is the ‘as a war tactic‘ that is the part that bothers me. There has been enough news and enough mentions that Houthi forces took food from the people. In addition there is enough evidence that Houthi forces stopped the flow of food and medicine. There is equal sources (unconfirmed) that Hezbollah set that stage, in addition the Iranian part in all this remains unmentioned. Apparently the report also gives us: “The Houthis for their part have shelled cities, deployed child soldiers and used “siege-like warfare”” yet no mention of the famine actions that have been reported on a few occasions instigated and pushed through by Houthi forces. I am clearly not stating that Saudi Arabia and the UAE did the same tactics, the acts that the report accuses them of. I am not aware of this part and I am not saying that this is not so, yet there is now allegedly (because the Al Jazeera article is the source) more than one piece of evidence missing, as such the UN can no longer be trusted at present. The intentional absence of Iranian actions, the absence of Hezbollah mentions, as well as the fact that UN volunteers earlier this year reported that Houthi force claimed and blocked food supplies is a large issue and as it is unmentioned now gives rise to the UN becoming a questionable presence.

The quote “Its appendix lists the names of more than 160 “main actors” among Saudi, Emirati and Yemeni top brass as well as the Houthi movement, although it did not specify whether any of these names also figured in its list of potential suspects” is equally debatable. By trying to steer clear through: “it did not specify whether any of these names” implying that Houthi forces are less guilty. Still the actions of Iran supplying arms, drones and missiles are seemingly not mentioned. And if there is truth to the quote: “the information in these reports is absolutely crucial to build cases in the future“, the absence of Iran and Hezbollah become even more interesting. The question with me is whether the person behind that report is UN employed, or should that person become unemployed immediately.

When I take a helicopter rise (or a magic carpet ride) I can agree that there are no real innocent sides, all sides will transgress, make mistakes and so on. Did Saudi forces refuse to feed people, or were the food supplies already seized by Houthi forces? It is not a case of bias; it is active strategies on a theatre of war that was active. The fact that Houthi forces were mostly unmentioned is a much larger issue; the absence of Iran makes the entire Al Jazeera article optionally worthless. I will wait for the actual report to come out and nit-pick that report to death. Yet the article in France 24 gives us: “US, Britain, France, Iran and others that they “may be held responsible for providing aid or assistance for the commission of international law violations if the conditions for complicity are fulfilled.”” gives an optional first stage where the bulk the question is larger, Al Jazeera voiced it as: “while also highlighting the role Western countries have played as key backers of the Arab states and Iran has played in support of the Houthis“, yet it is the only mention of Iran and no mention of the acts of Hezbollah at all, which is still an issue on several levels.

There is one additional failing in the article, and optionally in the report as well. the quote: “it found that a Joint Incidents Assessment Team set up by Saudi Arabia to review alleged coalition violations had failed to hold anyone accountable for any strike killing civilians, raising “concerns as to the impartiality of its investigations”“, the quote shows a larger failing in the train of thought here. It is the task of a Joint Incidents Assessment Team to see of proper procedures were adhered to, that is not an impartial task, that is a clear task whether military protocols were ignored. The Human Right Watch (at https://www.hrw.org/report/2018/08/24/hiding-behind-coalition/failure-credibly-investigate-and-provide-redress-unlawful) gives us a few parts, but the quote: “JIAT originally consisted of 14 individuals from the main coalition members. It has a mandate to investigate the facts, collect evidence, and produce reports and recommendations on “claims and accidents” during coalition operations in Yemen” is seemingly accurate. The task is to initially investigate whether proper military procedures were adhered to. This is important as this sets-up the investigation through the chain of command. At that point SIGINT can determine whether communications were passed on correctly, it is there where I believe that one additional independent member would be required to investigate ALL the raw data. It is a time consuming job, but that is the path to find out what happened. And anyone thinking that this is simple, think again any event could take months to investigate if ALL the data is available. Yes, I agree it might seem partial, but it optionally is not. If anyone accuses this JIAT to be partial, than there might be a case for that, but it is still edged on the need for the Saudi Government to investigate whether they did something wrong. A defence attorney is not impartial, he or she opposes the prosecution to find all the evidence and applies the law to show innocence (or better stated an absence of guilt); it is a military approach, a Judge Advocate General (JAG) job to investigate. They apply the law and at present I have not seen any evidence clearing or properly accusing Saudi Arabia and the UAE from being actually guilty. Yet the other HRW parties are eager to ignore Iran’s part in all that. In addition, as the HRW gave rise 6 months ago with ‘Yemen: Houthi Landmines Kill Civilians, Block Aid‘ (at https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/22/yemen-houthi-landmines-kill-civilians-block-aid) where we see: “Mines have also prevented aid groups from bringing food and health care to increasingly hungry and ill Yemeni civilians“, gives a larger truth. The article in Al Jazeera (and France 24) give no rise to that given, Houthi involvement was minimalized and that is a much larger crime (as I personally see it) giving rise to my premise that this person behind the report should not be UN employed, that person should be unemployed.

That took less than 20 minutes to figure out, I wonder why Al Jazeera made no clear mention of that failure, where is their head at and where is their media allegiance at?

 

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September 3, 2019 · 11:05

Anacusis through silence

This is about an article I wrote on June 2nd 2018, the title ‘Cheese Pizza with Oregano‘. The story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/06/02/cheese-pizza-with-oregano/) looks at the finance situation that the big 4 face. With Brexit 7 weeks away that premise is becoming a lot more important. You see the big 4 (including the UK) had a lot of debt, now the issues for the UK do not dwindle, yet the other three are in a less savoury position. As sources gave us then we see: “Spain will have refinancing requirements that exceed €300 billion per annum before 2022. In 2018, 41.2 billion euro, in 2019, 82.4, in 2020 83.9 and in 2021 58.5 billion euro, with 60.4 billion maturing in 2022“, the second part is not Spain, it is Italy where we see: “4 billion euro maturities in 2018, 161 billion in 2019, 164 billion in 2020 and 172.5 billion euro in 2021“. Bloomberg (at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-29/conte-s-five-star-democrat-coalition-offers-italy-respite) gave us last week ‘Italy’s Unlikely Allies Offer a Brief Respite From Crisis‘, a brief respite is not a solution and there well over a quarter of a trillion Euro to refinance in Europe alone. Where is that coming from? You see Italy is merely one of three players that is in the deep waters, I have no numbers on Germany, yet Spain is in a similar place and whilst we thing that there is no issue, there is. Two nations represent an outstanding invoice totaling €250,000,000,000 due in three months and there is no real solution (as far as I can see it). Refinancing is fine by the banks; with the added interest these two nations will sign an addition burden of no less than €2,500,000,000 and optionally close to twice that amount. This implies that in the two nations every person adds between €24 and €50 to their debt (read: taxes) just to pay for the increased interest. You might not think this is a lot and over a year it seems little but EVERY person in Spain and Italy must pay it, no exceptions and it is merely to pay for the additional interest on the debt, not the debt itself and next year it will be about twice as much and with the outstanding debt still there (I am ignoring the debt of 2018), in 2019 people will have to pay between €75 and €150 each, young, old, it will not matter. So how large is the percentage of people that have to face this invoice and have no means to pay it? Those having to live below the current poverty line is clearly one of these groups and it is not a small group. We all are placed in denial of outstanding bills because the media seemingly ignores it. I gave warning to this in 2017, I reiterated it in 2018 and now the issue is on the doorstep, pushing it forward one more year will make it all come apart. It is the clear stage of deafness through silence. If we keep silent, it goes away. Well, there is some news for you. Anyone who ever faced a debt collector can tell you, it never goes away and that feeling of hardship can follow you up to a quarter of a century. And all this is negating the French situation. Germany is in a much better place, but when the recession hits it will deteriorate and in addition, Germany is seemingly tired of carrying the burden of irresponsible politicians. And when it comes to France, I personally wonder how much Credit Agricole gets to pocket this time around (perhaps you remember the Libor scandal). I agree that Credit Agricole was not alone in this, yet this time around Deutsche bank and Credit Suisse have additional problems and they are not in a position to get caught with their fingers in the cookie jar (or is that fingers in the cocky jar?)

the problem is that these people tend to not learn, in addition, the wealth tends to outrun the fine by a fair bit and that is where the problem lies, the issues of debt needed to have been negated harshly a lot sooner and these governments pushed it forward again and again and this now directly interacts with any additional stimulus, because Spain, Italy, France and Germany (Germany a lot less) will get to feel the pinch on both ends of the pliers, the Stimulus branch and the refinancing branch. The UK is not out of reach of it all, but as it is on the way out it cannot be held responsible for a lot of these upcoming cost and the remain group just does not realise how much money is added to the debt in that way. It was the biggest issue that mattered and it has arrived at the front door of the UK, The Brexit door avoids that issue that was part of the larger problem all along. And now 12 of the 27 nations are eager to say yes to whatever infusion they can manage also becomes a worry, as they now face a much larger share of that expense, so they are complaining as loud as possible.

Even now as we see the Coup D’état message of: ‘Brussels would reluctantly agree Brexit extension if rebel MPs succeed in preventing no-deal‘, and other messages of delay, the delay is essential for Europe because they decided to remain in denial of Brexit, for three years these EU people got fat wages and remained possum, so now we see a larger issue. What use is the EU when it cannot contain any control over the irresponsible spending of the ECB? What use is the EU when the players have shown an inability to get a proper budget? The problem is actually a lot larger. You see the next part is speculative and I cannot prove it, but bare (or bear) with me. It connects to the IMF Data produced for the year 2018. Now we can agree that there is always an interaction. There is expected positive and actual positive. My issue is that EVERY nation in the EU gained (actually except Turkey). All are gaining, now we can agree that most might have had a positive impact, yet when we look back at the news we see: “The weaker end to the year weighed on the economy’s performance in 2017 overall, with growth revised down from 1.8% to 1.7%” (the Guardian), “Britain’s economy slowed to a virtual standstill in the first three months of 2018” (the Guardian), “It felt as though the sector was losing its lifeblood this month as Brexit worries continued to claw away at confidence, new orders and business margins” (the Independent) all these bad news linking Brexit, all whilst the IMF data shows that nominal GDP numbers for the UK went up by 7%.

IMPORTANT

Now there are two important parts here. The first is that the metrics are not the same, yet the premise of one side claiming that there are losses, the positive is down, yet the year before the IMF showed that the UK GDP went down by 0.011% the numbers make no sense, we are thrown between different metrics and those different metrics do not reflect the battering news again and again. The people are being handled with data that is not reliable and that part is obvious not reported on. Just like the news three years ago that the IMF reported that UK austerity was a really bad idea, something that they had to retract later on. The second danger is that the GDP is a lot more complex, yet the premise that the UK economy is so bad, so less good and growing so much less so than before the Brexit ‘threat’ is not seen in a -0.011% versus a plus 7%. Even I agree that 7% is way too positive, but these are the reported numbers and they do not add up, not compared to the media and all the anti-Brexit reporting.

This comes to blows when we see the issues in the other large three European players. In addition, the setting ignores the fact that the medium economies (Netherlands, Belgium, and Sweden) had been doing a lot better. Their economies might be ‘too’ small, yet their good venture might reflect to Eastern Europe to a much larger degree. Merely agreeing with the big four is seemingly folly too.

Oh, and before I forget, we can now also consider the forceful removal of any politician in the European economic field if so desired. They can be fired without any legal repercussions at present. The EU enabled us to do that when they decided to label the no-deal Brexit as a major natural disaster. This works for the remain as well as the Brexit group as the ECB was the biggest flaw in all this. When the Coup D’état works in the UK, we can demand the immediate firing of Mario Draghi and his ECB associates (read: cronies). If the economy is seen as a natural disaster, those setting and prolonging the stage of a natural disaster are wielders of that natural disaster and as such should be pushed out of office without pay.

I wonder if they thought that through, I guess not. I hope I did not oversimplify matters here 😉

 

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September 2, 2019 · 11:23

Funny Money, Amusing Thickheads

There are two issues and they do not link, but they are supportive of one another. I made notice of this situation 5 months ago in my article (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/04/27/then-the-hard/) called ‘Then the hard‘, in the article I give “Now we get to the part where the €2.5 trillion mark matters, as the ECB is trying to find new ways to convince others that the continued provision of stimulus to the economy matters“, as I see it the stimulus protects banks, makes them more powerful, it allows for political stupidity, yet the economy has not been saved (not in the two attempts), it has not been jump started, and it has not been a positive impact for its citizens, merely the industrial executives and the rich CEO’s (OK, that was a more biased view from yours truly, the writer).

As Bloomberg gave us on Saturday (at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-31/more-ecb-officials-pile-into-stimulus-debate-as-economy-wilts) ‘More ECB Officials Pile Into Stimulus Debate as Economy Wilts‘, and when we see: “the ECB should keep all options on the table to reinvigorate inflation and growth, including a relaunch of quantitative easing“, it is at that point that the EU citizens are getting screwed (again), more debt (again) and no resolution because the ECB is about the gravy train and not about resolutions. Yes that same article gives opposing voices, yet I would not be surprised that (by a narrow margin) the stimulus people win. This is why Brexit was so important!

In the end the retirees get hammered for those debts, the ECB officials have too fat wallets to care. At this point the debts have surpassed €3,000,000,000,000 and it seems that the end is nowhere near, yet the stage of bankruptcy is there. Even at 0.1% (no debt interest is ever that low) implies that the interest is €3 billion a year. A payment that is way beyond the budgets of any of the EU nations, payment due every year whilst the bulk of them have overextended themselves with budgets that should have been shrunk by well over 5%, so pretty much all the EU nations are running an economic deficit whilst the Mario Draghi Posse is handing out more money, printed money, for a lack of a better term funny money.

What the ECB is not telling anyone that most stimulus options fall flat when the UK officially leaves the EU that is the despair there. Their options melt away when the UK is out and that is why everyone is suddenly in a panic, that is why we get these moronic acts and even UK Labour is all about remain now. And with that part we move to the second part of this.

Now we get to the Chief of Grief, the Duke of Fluke, the one and only real loser in history (as I personally see it) Jeremy Corbyn. When we see headlines like ‘No-deal Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn vows to ‘pull Britain back from the brink’‘, or ‘Final sovereignty on Brexit must rest with the people‘ we see the idiot he is. There was a referendum, there was a voice and Brexit won, the issues with the ECB shows us that we are a lot better outside then inside that mess. There is no brink of Brexit, there is an economic mess and we will enter a stage of recession, anyone telling you that it can be presented is lying to you, or they are wielding massive amounts of money, amounts that no one has. This has been shown by people more intelligent than me and by people with actual economic degrees; they all are on the ‘remain’ fence, merely because it butters their bread. It gets worse when we see that the Hysterical Remain groups that have become violent, abusive and out of control, more important, to a larger degree the media isn’t even covering it. How is that for balanced information?

I have heard one or two actual ‘remainers’ who made a really good case, yet in the end, they have no control over the ECB and the ECB is in Europe at present the great evil. What they claim is good for Europe is to a much larger extent merely good for big business. When we look at those companies leaving the UK, these are all companies hiding behind taxation options, or facilitating to really large players and to some degree that is fine, but the ECB forgot that the well over 150 million small business owners see nothing of any of that and more important, they will see the impact of the 3 trillion euro of debt that the ECB created, things are that much out of whack and I do not get why people accept the presented BS that people like Jeremy Corbyn have been presenting to the masses. I am aware and I also believe that Brexit had its own waves of BS presenters. I made up my own mind and for the most I was leaning towards Remain, Mark Carney (the Marky Mark of the British bank) and especially his speech to the House of Lords was the setting of that stage. Yet he too had one flaw (if you want to call it that), there was no controlling the ECB and they are out again making some lame excuse on the essential economic need for more stimulus, whilst we already know now that it will not save the economy and they are willing to wager another trillion euro and spend it up front.

These people are not held accountable in any way and I say: ‘Enough is enough!‘ The UK is better off by itself steering the economic waters as it had done for centuries. Oh, I almost forgot the second part on sovereignty, sovereignty does not rest with the people, it rests in Buckingham Palace with HRH Queen Elisabeth II. There was a referendum and the Brexit group with a little over 51% won. And to those people still in doubt, you only have yourself to blame with the mess you are creating. There were 46 million votes, representing a 72% group, so 28% did not even bother to vote! Those 13 million votes were invalid straight of the bat, with only 25,000 invalid or blank votes we see no real impact, it they were all remain voted it would not have mattered. When you consider all this and you see the hooligan masses being remain people, we see two parts, the first is that they are moronic (worthy of UK Labour), yet the larger issue is that a lot are in anger because they are not getting properly informed. Stories like: ‘UK government officials told the food industry that supplies of liquid egg could run out in a no-deal Brexit‘, yet the operative word is ‘could‘ we just do not know, and not knowing is adamant in a lot of this, yet the people have faced two years of fear mongering, all large consortiums that see a danger to their margins, not the margins of the shop, the margins to executives and their bonuses, and the people are eating the fear hook, line and sinker. There will be actual issues, but the foundation of all this is that this has never happened before and the EU and the ECB did this to themselves. We all forget how this started, this all started when Greece in 2009 had misrepresented itself and we saw issue after issue, debt after debt and the politicians that caused it merely walked away. Then we were told stories on how Greece might be evicted from the EU, the news was all over that yet the truth was that we were misled (or is that made Miss Led?) The Guardian (in 2015) gave us: “As Athens will be unable to satisfy its financial obligations after a default, many hardliners expect Greece to leave the Eurozone, and printing as much neo-drachma as necessary. Some see this as the only solution to the Greek crisis: it would allow Greece to devalue its new currency, supposedly making the country competitive and resulting in economic growth and the ability to repay its debt“, in addition we get: “while only article 50 of the EU treaty regulates how a state can leave the union. And a mechanism for leaving only the Eurozone or for expulsion even has not been provided for at all“, basically the stupidity of the EU was that they stated that every member will always be up front and do what must be done, which was deceptive in its own rights. So a group that is merely inclusive and under stringent rules can they leave, yet in addition other sources gave us that NO MEMBER can be expelled. This is called a Corporatocracy, not a democracy. Corporations decide on what happens and that is what we basically see at present. The problem here is that any Corporatocracy will limit its actions towards enablers and consumers; the rest is pretty much screwed. In a monarchy all citizens matter and the people do not seem to be able to grasp that, the UK (and the Netherlands, as well as Sweden, Belgium and so on are monarchies within a Corporatocracy and that is a very different setting, that stage can only be made profitable where debts are soaring and the banks not the government decide where you can be at, a situation we see all over Europe. this is not new, I did not invent it, other voices going back to 2014 say pretty much the same thing, I merely have a lot more data available at present. The media relies on advertisement money from any Corporatocracy, so you cannot expect them to actually inform you, it is a double edged blade and both sides are pointed at YOUR guts, it is that detrimental a situation.

So as Greece made a few issues clear in the wrong way, people like Nigel Farage went with the notion of ‘Better Out than in‘, I agree with him, yet I remained on the fence for the longest of times. It was the second ECB stimulus who would put us so much deeper in debt that got me across. The first stimulus was fine, it was an option and even as it did not work out, it gave Europe time, yet the second one the best we could hope for was time and that is where the problem started and now as stimulus 3 is on the table the setting is too unacceptable, the UK needs to get out and fast, deal or not.

Let’s not make a fairy tale, this will not be a nice time and things will get worse for a little while, anyone telling you different is lying to you. The issue is that with the ropes cut the EU cannot force debts on the UK to the degree it is doing now, more important the UK gets to make a few other choices and it will down the road (3-4 years) turn the economy in something stronger. It will result in an actual better quality of life over time, but it will not be immediate. This is why the ties and economic options with players like Huawei (5G), nations like Saudi Arabia (all kinds of goods) and a few other players become important (optionally India with generic medication). Anyone with the misguided notion that Human Rights are the optimal route better stay at home. If Human Rights were an actual power there would be no age discrimination, there would be actual better (and more) housing and there would be a better social security. All missing and mostly because in a Corporatocracy, corporations are largely tax exempt, exactly what we see today. In that stage we now see the rumblings, even as players like Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple and others are all making noises on leaving, they do so at the risk of losing 69 million consumers. Facebook is truly global, so is Google to the largest extent, yet for Apple we get Huawei, ASUS and HP, Amazon leaving would give the people a slimmer HMV and optionally small businesses come back (my preferred solution), and even as corporations are shouting, screaming, streaming and threatening, they all realise that you cannot walk away from 69 million consumers. Not when they need to share the smaller EU pool with 3-4 competitors at every corner. That is the part we all forgot, consumer power is actually power and we listened to the likes of Jeremy Corbyn for far too long. To be honest, I never thought that it would be possible to be more dim than Nick Clegg (LIBDEMS), yet I was wrong, Jeremy Corbyn pulled it off nicely. I am not stating that Boris Johnson is without flaws (his barber being the obvious one). I am stating that the UK has been in a dangerous position for far too long and as long as the ECB does the way it does it, the danger stays, getting away from that danger is an immediate need at present.

 

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