Tag Archives: Finance

October 22, 2025 · 04:30

The bubble to end all bubbles

That is what I saw mere minutes ago. It was yesterday’s piece at the Financial Review. An opinion piece by Gita Gopinath. Now normally I tend to ignore opinion pieces, but due to the fact that over time Financial Review has shown a good back on several matters and I picked up on the title ‘The crash that could torch $US35trn of wealth’ (at https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/the-crash-that-could-torch-us35trn-of-wealth-20251016-p5n31w) gives pause for alarm. As America has its tourism issues, its economy issue and its technology issues a $35,000 billion write-off would be nothing less than a disaster in the making. I wrote about this a few times, but even I shudder to think of how large this bubble has become. The 2008 crash was half of that and the documentary Inside Job does a great way to explain this. Take this movie together with the movie Margin Call and you get a picture of what was done to the people of the world.

This is more than 100% worse and it started with the delusional setting of salespeople taking the easy road and giving the rest of the world how amazing AI was going to be. The quote “I calculate that a market correction of the same magnitude as the dotcom crash could wipe out over $US20 trillion ($30 trillion) in wealth for American households, equivalent to roughly 70 per cent of American GDP in 2024. This is several times larger than the losses incurred during the crash of the early 2000s. The implications for consumption would be grave. Consumption growth is already weaker than it was preceding the dotcom crash. A shock of this magnitude could cut it by 3.5 percentage points, translating into a 2-percentage-point hit to overall GDP growth, even before accounting for declines in investment” should stop you in your tracks. With the additional “Foreign investors could face wealth losses exceeding $US15 trillion, or about 20 per cent of the rest of the world’s GDP. For comparison, the dotcom crash resulted in foreign losses of around $US2 trillion, roughly $US4 trillion in today’s money and less than 10 per cent of rest-of-world GDP at the time. This stark increase in spillovers underscores how vulnerable global demand is to shocks originating in America” was not unknown to me, but I did not figure on the damage exceeding 10 trillion, here I see I was off by 50% (which comes due to a lack of an economic degree on my side), but data I know, in and out. I saw some of this and I tried to warn people and especially the Emirati people (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/20/the-start-of-something-bad/) in ‘The start of something bad’ only two days ago. And the reason why it would be worse is seen in the next setting of the Financial Review. We are given “Historically, the rest of the world has found some cushion in the dollar’s tendency to rise during crises. This “flight to safety” has helped mitigate the impact of lost dollar-denominated wealth on foreign consumption. The greenback’s strength has long provided global insurance, often appreciating even when the crisis originates in America, as investors seek refuge in dollar assets. There are, though, reasons to believe that this dynamic may not hold in the next crisis. Despite well-founded expectations that American tariffs and expansionary fiscal policy would bolster the dollar, it has instead fallen against most major currencies.” I kinda saw that two days ago, but not to this degree (the Financial Review writes it better) When that bubble burst it will not allow for shelter and the people involved will be hit massively. As I see it Nvidia will survive by will see its value decreased by 90%. Oracle will get hit less but it will still take a beating. Microsoft will be up for sale in the bargain basement and after builder.ai, the bubble will stick to them like gum in hair and they will not be able to shake the event. Others (Google, IBM, Amazon) will be hit, but they will get through this. As I see it, the only high standard that is maintained will be Adobe. Their “AI” options are soundly set in Deeper Machine Learning. As I see it, they will tend to be the shelter of choice if at all possible. 

The only part I disagree with is “Although this does not mark the end of the dollar’s dominance, it does reflect growing unease among foreign investors about the currency’s trajectory. Increasingly, they are hedging against dollar risk – a sign of waning confidence.” As I see it, the dollar comes to an end with this bubble. I do not know what people will rush to, but the dollar is no longer the place to be. As I see it there will be a flock going towards the Yuan, the Dirham and the Bitcoin, but personally I have no idea if the Bitcoin survives. You see, a $35,000 write-off will come from some currency and those hiding in Bitcoin will lose a lot, no telling how much, but it will be close to astronomical. The Financial Review gives us “Perceptions of the strength and independence of American institutions, particularly the Federal Reserve, play a crucial role in maintaining investor confidence.” That independence is close to obsolete. This administration took care of that with all the tariffs, all the tourist settings and the economy is also shaky. It might not be but someone took the trouble of not reporting the ‘goodness’ of their setting. The labour statistics are nowhere to be found and that is shaking investor confidence. All that whilst Paramount is shaking thousands of people of their employment tree, this year alone Microsoft shed 15,000 jobs, IBM is said to have fired 21,000 jobs, making Google’s 100 job losses trivial in comparison. In this setting and with the missing labor statistics the investor confidence would be in the basement and even if the Federal reserve doused that paper in the scent of Luis Vuitton it would not matter much. At present Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the best places for these investors and America knows this. They have oil to fall back on and as I see it, no matter how the AI bubble bursts, they can retrench this into service roles and data acquisition roles. That is what Europe fears, American held data used to safely drip the economy to health using IP values from everywhere. And this is not the first time I wrote about this in ‘That one flaky promise’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/01/29/that-one-flaky-promise/) where I saw the dangers of America ‘annexing’ whatever it had and that was BEFORE AI and the bubble it created. I swear that danger almost 4 years ago. That setting will implode the rest of what America thought they would have. As I see it, a strong setting of IP and storage of it could help both Saudi Arabia and the UAE (a likely preferred choice) to evade to (those who can afford it) because when this bubble goes it will wipe out whatever most of us hold for dear and those who had their patents in the US. This is mere (intense) speculation, but do you think that this American administration will not do this? It had no trouble with tariffs and the setting of THEIR ‘big beautiful America’ at the expense of everything. They even tried to make Canada and Greenland part of America. I don’t think so and as I see it, when that bubble goes America is pretty much done for. All because Americans believe that Cash is King. So their salespeople live by the dollar and will waste it at a moments notice for their personal needs. Should you doubt that please watch Inside Job and see what they did there. I reckon that Iceland is now getting back on its feet al will enjoy the view on the impact crater that Wall Street leaves behind. 

I need to end this with a word of caution. This was base on an opinion piece, so as that is wrong, so is my view. But I based it on the data I had available and the prediction that I saw in 2022, so there was no AI bubble at that time. So is my view more accurate now? That cannot be said and it is based on what desperate people do and as I see it America is about to become really desperate. So enjoy your coffee today, which I will do also and I will assist a young woman named Aloy help her defeat some machines. They were not Microsoft products, so they should work. Now lets make them a lot less functional and that Deathbringer looks like a right monster.

Have a great day and try not to get too depressed by the not so good news I am partially bringing.

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October 13, 2025 · 07:06

Just like Soap

Perhaps you remember the 80’s series soap. Someone made a sitcom of the most hilarious settings and took it up a notch, the series was called soap and people loved it, it did nearly everything right, but over time this bubble went, just like all the other soap bubbles tend to go and that is OK, the made their mark and we felt fine. There is another bubble. It is not as good. There is the mortgage bubble, the housing bubble (they were not the same), the economy bubble and all these bubbles come with an aftermath. Now we see the AI bubble and I predicted this as early as January 29th of this year in ‘And the bubble said ‘Bang’’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/29/and-the-bubble-said-bang/) and my setting is that AI does not yet exist, as I saw it, for the most, it is the construct of lazy salespeople who couldn’t be bothered to do their work and created the AI ‘Fab’ and hauled it over to fit their needs. Let’s be clear. There is no AI and when I use it I know that ‘the best’ I am doing is avoid a long discussion about how great DML and LLM are, because they are and it is amazing. And as these settings are correctly used, it will create millions if not billions in revenue. I got the idea to overhaul the Amazon system and let them optionally create online panels that could bank them billions, which I did in ‘Under Conceptual Construction’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/10/under-conceptual-construction/) and ‘Prolonging the idea’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/12/prolonging-the-idea/) which I wrote yesterday (almost 16 hours ago). I also gave light to an amazing lost and found idea which would cater to the needs of Airports and bus terminals. I saw that presentation and it was an amazing setting in what I still call NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) in ‘That one idea’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/09/26/that-one-idea/) these are mere settings and they could be market changes. This is the proper use of IT to the next setting of automation. But the underlying bubble still exists, I merely don’t feed that beast, so when the BBC last night gave us all ‘‘It’s going to be really bad’: Fears over AI bubble bursting grow in Silicon Valley’ almost 2 days ago (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz69qy760weo) I saw the sparkly setting of soap bubbles erupt and I thought ‘That did not take long’. My setting was that AI (the real AI as Alan Turing saw it) was not ready yet. The small setting that at least three parts in IT did not yet exist. There is the true power of Quantum computing and as I see it quantum computers are real, but they are in the early stages of development and are not yet as powerful as future versions should be and for that, so as IBM rolls out their second system on the IBM Heron platform, we are getting there. It is called the IBM’s 156-qubit IBM Quantum Heron, just don’t get your hopes up, not too many can afford that platform. IBM keels it modes and gives us that “The computer, called Starling, is set to launch by 2029. The quantum computer will reside in IBM’s new quantum data center in upstate New York and is expected to perform 20,000 more operations than today’s quantum computers” I am not holding me credit card to account to that beauty. If at all possible, the only two people on the planet that can afford that setting are Elon Musk and Larry Ellison and Larry might buy it to see Oracle power at actual quantum speed and he will do it, to see quantum speed came to him in his lifetime. The man is 81 after all (so, he is no longer a teenager), If I had that kind of money (250,000 million) I would do it to, just so to see what this world has achieved. But the article (the BBC one) gives us ““I know it’s tempting to write the bubble story,” Mr Altman told me as he sat flanked by his top lieutenants. “In fact, there are many parts of AI that I think are kind of bubbly right now.”

In Silicon Valley, the debate over whether AI companies are overvalued has taken on a new urgency. Skeptics are privately – and some now publicly – asking whether the rapid rise in the value of AI tech companies may be, at least in part, the result of what they call “financial engineering”.” And the BBC is not wrong, we had a write-off in January of a trillion dollars and a few days ago another one of 1.5 trillion dollars. I would be willing to call that ‘Financial Engineering’ and that rapid rise? Call it the greedy need of salespeople getting their audience in a frenzy 

I merely gave a few examples of what DML and LLM could achieve and getting a lost and found department set from weeks into minutes is quite the achievement and I reckon that places like JFK, Heathrow and Dubai Airport would jump at the chance to arrange a better lost and found department and they are not alone but one has to wonder how the market can write off trillions in merely two events. So when we get to

“In recent days, warnings of an AI bubble have come from the Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund, as well as JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon who told the BBC “the level of uncertainty should be higher in most people’s minds”. And here, in what is often considered the tech capital of the world, concerns are growing. At a panel discussion at Silicon Valley’s Computer History Museum this week, early AI entrepreneur Jerry Kaplan told a packed audience he has lived through four bubbles. He’s especially concerned now given the magnitude of money on the table as compared to the dot-com boom. There’s so much more to lose. “When [the bubble] breaks, it’s going to be really bad, and not just for people in AI,” he said.”

He is not wrong. Consider the next one amounting to a speculated two trillion (or $2,000,000,000,000) when it hits, it could wipe out retirement savings of nearly everyone for years. So how do you feel about your retirement being written off for decades? When you are 80+ and you have millions upon millions you are just fine and that is merely 2-5 people, the other 8,200,000,000 people? The young will be fine, and over 4 billion will be too young to care about their retirement, but the rest? Good luck I say.

So what will happen to Stargate ($500B) when that bubble goes? I already see it as a failure as the required power settings will not be able to fuel this, apart from the need of hundreds of validators and their systems require power too, then we see Microsoft thinking (and telling us) it is the next big thing, all whilst basic settings aren’t out yet. Did anyone see the need for Shallow Circuits? Or the applied versions of Leon Lederman? No one realizes that he held the foundational setting of AI in Quantum computing. You see (as I personally see it) AI cannot really work in Binary technology, it requires a trinary setting, a simple stage of True, False and Both. It would allow for trinary settings, because it isn’t always True or False, we learn that the hard way, but in IT we accept it. That setting will come to blow when we get to the real AI part of it and that is why I (in part) the AI coffee being served in all places. And I like my sarcasm really hot (with two raw sugar and full cream milk)

That is the setting we face and whilst some will call the BBC article ‘doom speak’ I see it for what it is, a reminder that the AI frenzy is sales driven and whilst people are eager to forget the simplest setting, the real deal of Microsoft and Builder.AI is simply the setting that at present we are confronted with IT engineers making the decisions for us and the amount of class actions coming to the world in 2027 and 2028 (optionally as early as 2026) and as some cases are drawn out even yesterday (see https://authorsguild.org/news/ai-class-action-lawsuits/ for details) you need to realise that this bubble was orchestrated and as such I like the term ‘Financial Engineering’ so be good and use the NIP setting properly and feel free to be creative, I was and gave Amazon an idea that could bank it billions. But not all ideas are golden and I am willing to see that I am not the carrier of golden ideas, the fact that someone saw the Lost and Found setting is proof of that.

Have a great day, I am 30 minutes from breakfast now, so off I go to brekkyville.

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September 23, 2025 · 11:30

The time has come

I have been sitting on a story for about three days. I have been hesitant as it is a field I am thoroughly unaware off, but it could hit me in the future and as we are given (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-19/first-guardian-shield-collapse-asic-and-superannuation-flaws/105783328) the setting of ‘First Guardian, Shield superannuation disasters expose deep flaws in Australia’s $4.3 trillion retirement system’ we see that ABC is giving us not only cause for pause, but also cause for alarm we are set in a stage of almost desperate inability to protect our retirements. And lets be clear if Australia is set to a $4.3 trillion danger, what is the dangers towards America, Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Germany? 

I tried to illustrate dangers like this in ‘Wages of fear’ which I wrote in May 2023, two years ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/05/02/wages-of-fear/) and there I wrote “Lets be clear, this was NOT his fault, but the point where we cannot avoid what comes next was achieved. If only people had woken up a lot sooner. But there we got past a point where the problems would accelerate and now we are almost at that point. And the banks will be no help. I tried to warn you a few times over. Some of their risk and liquidity is in US bonds and when the US forfeits payment your 401K and many other things will become worth close to nothing” Now the fair question is, is this the same? I don’t think it is, but there is a larger failing into the retirement systems as it is not a hands on pathway. ABC in another story hands us “Ms Wohlers is one of about 12,000 Australians haunted by the loss of more than $1 billion of retirement savings after the collapses of First Guardian and Shield.” As well as “ASIC deputy chair Sarah Court, who has commonly described the First Guardian and Shield cases as “industrial-scale misconduct”, says the regulator acted as soon as it could. “We don’t think we missed red flags,” she told ABC News ahead of ASIC’s appearance at a parliamentary hearing on Thursday, when she was grilled by politicians about whether it was a tough cop on the beat properly identifying financial misconduct.” And it relates to the story we are given with ‘140 targeted by ASIC on Shield, First Guardian’ as I see it, a mess of a disastrous kind. Where the latter gives us “So, for example, the financial advisers are saying to us ‘you can’t hold us accountable for this because the ratings house had rated the Shield Master Fund as of investment grade’, while superannuation fund trustees are telling us the same – ‘well, we relied on the ratings houses’, or ‘we relied on the fact that these members had financial advice’,” (Source: Financial Newswire) I see it as a setting where there is a ring setting with no beginning and no end. I am in a setting where Microsoft could steal my IP and my only defense would be to convict 280,000 Microsoft employees to death and kill them myself. I get that this is utter madness, but that would be the result of one party just playing a game with other whilst that party knows that they cannot be held to account. I remember the rating houses in 2008 and they got away whilst millions lost it all. I see the simpler setting “You take from me, I take from you” and the setting that Microsoft losing over 45% of its staff (I am utterly destined to fail) making it implode on itself. Now take that to the setting of rating houses and the the truth comes out (if it ever does) the people need to react and react harshly. It is not ‘business as usual’ it will become business at the cost of souls and that is a harsh reality to face.

So whilst some will lawyer up and that is their right, they should not be allowed to walk away with even a dime. I reckon that they will sue the rating houses and those rating houses will need to get sanitized (to some extent) because losing billions is a larger setting and when Australia with their billions in losses (up to 4,300 billion) the setting for America and Canada is a lot more severe. And America up to ten times as much as Canada faces. And about a month ago we were given ‘ASIC takes further action against Ferras Merhi over First Guardian and Shield superannuation advice’ where we are given “ASIC has sought leave from the Federal Court to expand its existing proceeding against former financial adviser Ferras Merhi to allege he engaged in unconscionable conduct, failed to act in the best interests of clients, gave conflicted advice, and provided defective statements of advice whilst receiving millions of dollars.” Yet my question becomes did Ferras Merhi do anything illegal? You see, in my setting I would be, but did he do anything illegal? The setting revolves around “provided defective statements of advice whilst receiving millions of dollars”, so what makes a statement ‘defective’? You see, I am not protecting Ferras Mehri. I am looking at the following:

s12CB of the ASIC Act – engaging in conduct in connection with the supply or possible supply of financial services, which was in all the circumstances unconscionable.

So, what makes the setting of “all the circumstances unconscionable” an economist looks at this in one way and I as a law graduate and IT technician in another way. 

Then we get:
s952E of the Corporations Act – providing defective disclosure documents. As such, what makes the documents “defective disclosure documents”, I do not know and I look at them separately as that is what the law does and when merely one law falters, it all collapses (it matters later on).

Then we get:
s961B of the Corporations Act – failure to act in their client’s best interests, and what is that at the start? Most clients are ‘greed’ driven, they want the highest return and that is ‘their’ best interest. It is a hard lesson to learn that looking back the client gave the wrong advice to the advisor. I myself only work a balanced portfolio, I will never make large leaps but then again I am unlikely to lose a lot either. 

So in that setting we see:
the Court made interim freezing orders over Mr Merhi’s property. These orders remain in place until 12 December 2025 (25-024MR).
ASIC cancelled the AFSL of FSGA, effective 7 June 2025 and permanently banned its responsible manager (25-102MR).
In July 2025, the Court made travel restraint orders against Mr Merhi. Those orders prevent him from leaving or attempting to leave Australia until 12 December 2025, or until further order of the Court (25-024MR).

That is fair enough I reckon. But now we get to the settings that ABC at the top gave. We see there “In all of these cases, no criminal charges have been laid, but ASIC is heading to court to make allegations against the people at the centre of the Shield and First Guardian funds — those involved in managing and promoting the schemes.” The no criminal charges gives pause to consider that no criminal acts have transpired and when we look at some of the allegations the two that take the cake (a Tiramisu cake) is that the settings of “defective disclosure documents” must be proven and the lawyers will fight that. Then we get “all the circumstances unconscionable” and that is the ballgame, ‘unconscionable’ is not per se illegal and it is about the legality of the matter in court and that is the setting we see. So when I made a statement two years ago saying “Some of their risk and liquidity is in US bonds and when the US forfeits payment your 401K and many other things will become worth close to nothing” we see what bonds were worth 5 years ago. There we see “For the year, long-term U.S. Treasuries were by far the best-performing fixed-income investments, with a nearly 17% gain,” (source: Reuters) at present they are “the 10-year yield settled around 4.36%” that represents a loss of 13%, so who pays for that bond? This was a danger I saw 5 years ago (as uneconomical as I am) and 10 years ago I heard people to buy bonds as the interest is like free money and I stopped. There is no free ride and this is almost pushed into the AI field all whilst there is no verification in place. All settings that are interconnected and we now see the ABC giving us “expose deep flaws in Australia’s $4.3 trillion retirement system” so, what do you think you will end up with because as I see it, there is the chance that these people can do what they like all whilst there is no criminal accountability. Yes, he is stopped for now, but Ferras Merhi is about to walk away with more than $19 million in payments. As such he is willing to sweat it out for a few months. It is a lot more (like 79.2581 times more) than I ever made in my lifetime. 

So I see this case that ABC alerted me to with some suspicion. These people live by the setting of walking the edge of legality, there is no risk at that edge and I expect that Ferras Merhi is doing just that not doing anything illegal. As such 12,000 Australians are about to learn that they could lose it all without any illegal actions transpiring and I fault it to two settings (mentioned above) and we all considering setting the clocks to Islam where we see “Islamic banking prohibits the use of interest, speculation, and excessive risk. It emphasizes profit and loss sharing, fairness, honesty, and transparency in financial dealings.” By the way this setting was in place for hundreds of years. 

Have a great day and see that Statista gives us “Robusta, named because it can grow at a wider range of altitudes and temperatures, sold for 1.87 U.S. dollars in 2018, projected to sell at 5 U.S. dollars per kilogram in 2026” did you predict in 2018 that you would be setting your retirement to pay 267% for your coffee?

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September 5, 2025 · 06:14

The alternative way

I was contemplating the issues of Data privacy and particular the issues around US customs and their intrusion on your data issues. I had a few issues with that and as America is now the least reliable side of the matter I decided on a few techniques that might allow evasion of this. This morning I decided to look a few things up and I paused at Wired (at https://www.wired.com/2017/02/guide-getting-past-customs-digital-privacy-intact/) and I got to ‘How to Enter the US With Your Digital Privacy Intact’ where my suspicions were greeted with the ideas that had not been thought of. You see I am a great fan of ‘non-repudiation’ and that gave me the idea. What if you had the greatest of data insights? What if part of this locking and unlocking the data is for example your library card? This gave me two settings. The first is the magnetic strip, you see, you never think of this and it is what YOU make of it. The first setting is that a bank card has three tracks on a magnetic strip and they are for the most employed by banks when they need it (like ATM), but that setting could be altered for YOUR needs. The second part is what the card looks like. We can use these two elements to take a new page out of a book. 

So this leaves us the corporate way and the personal way. 

As a first, we get to copy the details you need (like a contact list, app list and personal lists). The second part becomes copying hat you need to a corporate server, encrypted data that is merely there, like a backup. So how is that dat secure? Well we get to the next stage, we take one or two cards you have on you. One with a magnetic strip, one as a card (could be business card, could be staff access card, or even your library card). You will keep it on you at all time. And third a personal access number (up to 12 digits) This gives you the setting of non-repudiation.

Now we travel to a ‘no one cares where’ place in America and you pass through customs, without phones or laptops. Just a regular joey. And in the American office you go to the security office and download the essentials. Now this merely makes sense for the people who needs this. So it is not for everyone in the first stage.

You pass the credits to a scanner and there is your data, your essential data that is. Kept safe from peeking eyes, and there is a growing concern that this is becoming more and more essential. We seemingly are ‘held’ to the dangers of YOUR data, but I reckon that America is now gaining an essential need of Digital IP that they can ‘embrace’ for their broke settings soon enough. Only for you to lose the fact that your IP was hijacked and no one knows who or where. But that is the setting that I am seeing now. They need IP to survive the next year and why should they be allowed your data? At present we see nearly everyone giving us “Chinese theft of American IP currently costs between $225 billion and $600 billion annually.” But I am not so sure. We get the ‘victims’ that Nokia and other brands, all whilst Huawei is far beyond what players like Nokia and others can produce. Is there IP theft? Yes, I know there is but from fashion brands like Gucci (it might be IP brands) but the markets are making a killing on $15000 Gucci bags, now for sale in the markets at $179 dollars. As I see it, the new settings allows for America to steal what they need to avoid having to not pay their interest bills. Now this is allegedly, I have no evidence. But the setting as I see it is quite real, as such I devised a way to avoid becoming a victim. The best option is to avoid America all together. Possible for me, but not for everyone and should I get that decently paying technical support job, then I will end up working for a US firm (hopefully avoiding the US altogether) but I am not holding my breath on that. 

As such I came up with this, a first in this task. There are two settings. The first is the data and the second is the hardware. The data I describes and I am a firm believer in non-repudiation. The hardware is different. You se, the movies have this nice clean crisp solution, but we are barely there. There was Ultraviolet (2006) where we see a foam phone printed and folded. We are already at that stage where we can do that. The printed foam cover is possible, there is still the setting of the battery, but that could be overcome. We merely set the LCD print board to include the display, you won’t have a camera setting, but that wouldn’t be needed. We get the setting that the devices go back to their original platform. So you have (if needed) a camera, a battery, and whatever more you need. The printed phone will interact with it all if needed. And wouldn’t it be nice if Huawei gives you all that? American stupidity forces China to give us the next need to innovate. That is irony the size of the Titanic (in action). 

You get one republican idiot forcing the world to turn to its life long enemy (President Nixon doesn’t agree with this statement), but that is for tomorrow. There is of course the real setting. Do we still need America? They are so in denial about what is real that the current tourism news is given to you by YouTube (optionally TikTok too). 

As such my mind went wandering into the data safety setting and as the article is giving you, others have preceded me. But for now, corporations will need to adapt that same policy before they lose the data they have and personal data is currency, one that America shouldn’t possess. As such I wonder at what point these firms will avoid America altogether, setting offices up in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. And now that it seems that India is turning to Russia and China for their oil, they are likely the first to change venue towards their BRICS partners. The EU and the Commonwealth are next. As such Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom will result into making these jumps, to what extent is impossible to predict. I reckon that it depends on how they are depending of America as such. It will be a fluctuating field. But what is true is that more and more people are seeing the hardships that American corporations faces. GM has shed nearly 20,000 staff from 2018 onwards. ‘Tesla to cut 14,000 jobs as Elon Musk aims to make carmaker ‘lean and hungry’’ and that is merely in the last year. In the last 2 months we were told that Microsoft is shedding 9000 jobs. That’s over 40,000 people in merely three corporations and when we seek harder answers. Only Yesterday did Fortune give us ‘Ray Dalio says ‘most people are silent’ because they’re afraid to talk about what’s really happening with the U.S. economy’, I saw this setting months ago and the media is avoiding the issues as they are allegedly being held hostage by advertisement revenues. We aren’t given the real deals and I am not sure where the real deal stands. According to the media the setting is ‘US economy has likely stalled, with 50% risk of recession in 2 years, says Barclays’ in the meantime we are also given ‘US Economy: Jobless Claims Rise, Trade Gap Widens’ and ‘Stagflation & Recession Risks Loom Large Over US Economy’ with sources like UBS (allegedly relying on hard data), UBS gives us a 93% recession risk. If this is true, how does the Barclay setting make sense? I get it, talking about issues in two years time doesn’t mean that the risk is low in the next few months (it could be 100% by November). UBS gave three red flags, so there are all indicators. And the setting of Stagflation becomes the ‘norm’ Which gives us that growth is slowing, but the prices are rising. I am merely voicing what others are saying as I am not an economist. I reckon this is the second bullet that Canada is seemingly dodging as they elected Mark Carney (formerly Marky Mark of the British Bank). I’ll take his word over President Trump’s claims any day of the week. Moody’s speaker Mark Zandi gives us “we aren’t in a recession, but on the precipice of this recession”, OK, I am willing to go along with that, but merely as it seems sincere and I have no economic degree (Mark Zandi apparently has a stack of them). The problem is that these two sources highlight a rather large issue and the media is skating around them, they are avoiding the issue to get their alleged hands on advertisement revenue. It becomes an issue to see the real data and that is where you want to pass your IP through the borders? Not in my lifetime. I am likely to get a nice bonus if I just hand my IP to China, which sounds a lot more promising than trusting that America will do right by me. According to Zandi a third of America is already in recession or close to it and when we add the Tourism numbers I am seeing a grim picture, one that makes me plan my next vacation (whenever I can afford that one) on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE and not in America (ever). The Bank of America is blaming this on Tariffs (what a surprise). As such you might wander what one thing has to do with the other. The principle we are currently seeing at the America borders is the identification of HVT’s (High Value Targets), the second setting is IP. America needs trillions and one way to get these is by hijacking IP (making America the sole distributor of YOUR IP) Is that rally the way to go? Why don’t we ask the EU, Commonwealth and China on that issue? I think this is the one case where these three sides will speak (agree) in unison and I saw the setting coming over a decade ago and it is all over my blog. So why wasn’t the media this informative? I will let you decide.

But believe me that your IP and your personal DATA require protection and in a non-repudiating way. As such my mind went tinkering to what is possible and securing and keeping your data online was a first stop. I call it alternative way and that has a way of becoming the only or main way soon enough. 

Have a great day, I’m now a mere 90 minutes from breakfast.

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August 26, 2025 · 16:59

When the masses start slipping

That is at times the boulder we are waiting to see and today Reuters is giving us just that (at https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-consumers-with-prime-credit-are-starting-slip-payments-2025-08-25/) with ‘US consumers with prime credit are starting to slip on payments’ was given to us a mere 10 hours ago. And for the non-alert this implies “Borrowers with prime credit scores tend to pose relatively little risk to lenders and creditors. With a prime credit score, you may qualify for more favorable loan or credit card terms, interest rates and reward programs” and when this group starts slipping, the financial world will be a matter of upheaval and that will drown the people of mortgages and other settings. This was a mere matter of time. I saw this danger about a year ago and when tourism fell down I alerted you all that the bed and breakfast people will be up soon. Now consider that California and Florida have at least 200,000 of such arrangements and 10% is now slipping. This implies that over the next year we can see this group grow to about 20%-40%, it all depends on who faithfully set the charters to repay as much as possible. Those who set a second setting towards more beds or a larger stage are truly screwed. Now consider that 20,000 up to 70,000 of these mortgages are now in disarray and likely collapsing on itself. The story gives me the benefit of the doubt. With “Late repayments over 90 days were up 109% year-over-year in the VantageScore superprime segment, while the prime segment posted a 47% increase year-over-year.” Sets the larger stage, where places are dwindling down on tourism, we see the setting change speculatively towards “Late repayments over 90 days were up 183% year-over-year in the VantageScore superprime segment” that point is what I see the point of no return. At that point bank and financial institutions are getting hammered as is the American economy. I reckon that this point will be reached by spring 2026. And with the quote “Even though in absolute terms the increase is modest, it shows that even consumers considered the most credit-healthy are also beginning to see some stress with regard to repayments.” The issue here is that these settings are on a 90% filled charter, as these regions are facing a lapse of over 10%, their food bills are up in the air. As I see it, you cannot gain momentum on an engine running on 100% all the time. This who had their repayments as high as possible and considered the chance of ‘bad weather’ are most likely to sit it out and that is the group that is way to small at present.

As such the expectations I had for America is starting to add up in the real world. As I see it Florida and California are up first, Las Vegas has had a tendency to make due with what they have, but the cracks are showing there too. California was until now one of the most economic viable situations in America, that is now ending and I reckon that after the fires and other altercations Los Angeles will not be a great place to live, crime will overtake the police there in mere months. But that last part is a speculation on my side.

Have a great day, Vancouver is just now coming into Tuesday (as is Los Angeles).

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June 12, 2025 · 03:24

Just grabbing two ideas

Yup, I’m gonna go there. Two ideas, one I already discussed and as I couldn’t find it I might want to re-discuss and the second one I came up with seeing something last night. That second one is the first one I discuss. It will give developers for Android, iOS and HarmonyNext the option to spread their wings and make a few millions. You see, I am not much of a programmer, I was on databases, but I left that game decades ago. So I can sit on the idea, or give you programmer lot a nice setting of millions and that is the stage where you merely charge one dollar for the app per sold installation. Wouldn’t it be nice to get a few million by being adhering to the need of others?

So as I was watching some walkthrough video of the Carrefour in Dubai, It hit me that the people at vacations and business travel have needs, they need stuff, but at times you need to keep your mind in the game and that is where you come in. Consider that you are shopping for razorblades, sparkling water, fruit juice and perhaps  piece of meat as you are in a place where there is a kitchen. So what to get? Well this is where your mobile comes in. As you place the camera on the item, it will scan the sticker on the camera, the text is seen (it is already possible to do this), but the setting that is not done is that the local price is set to your local currency so you will see what everything costs. As I see it, you will have your local currency, say Australian dollars and the price we see is 6.99 (which would be Dirham in Dubai), the app will tell you that this is A$ 2.92, so now you know. And as I see it, there is a setting page which can give you the two currencies and at that point the scanner will give you the transfer almost immediately, not head scratching on what it might be, you will see immediately. As far as I can tell Android doesn’t have it, so likely the other two don’t either. And you are merely catering to the millions of tourists the world have. The calculations of two currencies are out there already and you merely need to get the connection working and million of tourists will be grateful. All these people ready to hand over a dollar for your hard work and they will be there in the millions. You might want to make it $2, but I reckon not much higher. You see, when the price goes up too much people will hesitate. From the $1 idea of it being a great deal to the $3 when people start considering ‘do I really need this’ and that is the path you want to avoid. Also the coming in after you don’t get the vibe ‘I can do this cheaper’ and before you know it, you are in a digital armistice race and you don’t want that. 

A simple app that apparently no one sees and people need it. Consider any tourist that has been in a shop. They all thought “What does that cost in my currency?” I have had it and if you have been on vacation you did too. Even if it is as simple as the price of Beer/Wine.

See if you can make it work and have a nice day making the next app people need on their mobiles. 

In September 2024 I wrote ‘Your (starting) fame on timing’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/09/05/your-starting-fame-on-timing/) where I gave the readers a similar idea for time. You see, what people forget is that when they travel, or have international contacts they need to be in touch with people outside their time zone and there the issue is seen when you don’t have direct view of these timezones. A simple app (or faceplate) optionally using the widget on the phone to set those times to the watch. I reckon that those who need it might also pay a dollar for that idea, especially if it synchs mobile settings. The idea is in that story, so have fun with that. It is merely a giveaway as I don’t have the setting to do it myself. Oh, and feel free if you make over 10 million, to ‘donate’ up to 20%, a mere request not a demand. As I have no grounds of demanding anything. I put this on my blog, as such it becomes freeware. 

Two ideas, optionally making you an instant millionaire. Who doesn’t want that? You gotta start at some point and it might as well be here.

Have a great day all. 

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January 8, 2025 · 00:57

Dens, first name Evie

That is the setting where I am. It was the BBC that gave me (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9q78wn9g8zo) where we see ‘US designates Tencent a Chinese military company’ and my first question is “By what evidence?” You see, we can go back to the European tour by Colin Powell, armed with a silver briefcase where he travelled around Europe like a rockstar and that is how we got into the Iraqi war. They had graphics (probably a powerpoint presentation). Then we got the accusations against Huawei. We never got to see any evidence and as I saw it America was afraid to lose the 5G war and they basically still did. Now we get that Tencent is on route to basically throw Microsoft in the dirt and now they are a military complex? To do what? Unite gamers all over the world? And what evidence do we get? The simplistic line “including gaming and social media giant Tencent” Where is the evidence? Then we are given “The list serves as a warning to American companies and organisations about the risks of doing business with Chinese entities. While inclusion does not mean an immediate ban, it can add pressure on the US Treasury Department to sanction the firms.” Funny, Tencent was offered my gaming solution that would bring them 6 billion a year in phase one, after that the numbers become interesting. You see, Amazon had no interest (they never contacted me) and as such the Amazon Luna seems to be out of consideration, Google placed themself outside the scope as they deleted the Google Stadia and I will not let Microsoft near any of my IP (as I personally see them, they are losers that rely on the gods of mediocrity) which leaves Tencent. As I see it, the first stage would get them a nominal annual revenue of up to 6 billion, which is set to 50,000,000 consoles. After that with up to 200 million consoles the ride becomes exciting. I offered it also to Saudi Arabia and Kingdom Holding as they have larger concerns in this and There is a hidden pleasure in me to see Saudi Arabia end up above Microsoft, they are that irrelevant to me. It would also impact Facebook (Meta) revenue, but I cannot say to what extent (lack of numbers and achievable timeline)

A simple setting I saw 3 years ago and no one seemingly caught on. 

As such we see all kinds of wannabe players, but there is no evidence, at least it is not clearly given. And when we get to “In response to the latest announcement Tencent, which owns the messaging app WeChat, said its inclusion on the list was “clearly a mistake.” “We are not a military company or supplier. Unlike sanctions or export controls, this listing has no impact on our business,” a spokesperson for the company told the BBC.” Some might catch on that America is merely trying to to prevent Microsoft to go several steps closer to bankruptcy. So they are setting (in my personal believe) the status for Europe to shun Chinese firms. Yet the larger setting is that they are merely setting up the shop for Tencent to become close to an Arabic and Asian provider to entertainment. So in 2-3 years when Tencent, TikTok and Huawei grow beyond their borders we will see the scared Europeans go overboard and let them into their areas and as I see it Tencent is on the brink of shutting Microsoft out of a population of close to 3 billion people (Asia, India, Arabian nations, Indonesia and Bangladesh) and as such as they get the people on their side Europe with over half a billion people will be joining them as well. Microsoft might be a 3 trillion company but I reckon that in a year with failure after failure, their vaults and coffers will look rather slim-lined. 

And for the people thinking I am bluffing, well, you are allowed to think that, but consider a small setting. Microsoft lost to Nintendo and Sony and all we get all the junk news like that they are working on a handheld computer. The problem is that Nintendo is already there and Tencent is coming as well (exact time unknown to me). So Microsoft is already in third place and it will get worse from there, because you need people in the end and they are somewhere else and now that they are ‘advocating’ cloud gaming with TV’s we need to realise that this require too much bandwidth, as such that ship is sailing fast towards the abyss of failure (as I personally see it). Then we get their Surface pro and the short and sweet is that it is nowhere as useful as what Apple has. I see that as another failure. You see in the 11 years that contraption was around, it did not push Apple from the winning pedestal. No matter how much they spin the story. And when you consider that gaming and tablet as well as the fact that Blizzard and Bethesda were bought for 75 billion. So how much did they make? Nowhere near that much and Starfield was a bust from the beginning. Billions in the Surface pro and that is not paying off either. So how many failures can they survive? And now Tencent is entering gaming with the option to create serious waves. It is the impact of innovation. As I see it, spin gets you nowhere and now the new spin for players like Microsoft is to let the administration deal with the Chinese and with the return president elect Trump Microsoft is cheering as President elect Trump is anti-Chinese. But the trouble isn’t what they have. It is that over 4 billion do not see America as the centre of the universe. Which gives Tencent an option and when (speculative) Tencent will adhere to the stage of Harmony OS, the setting for Microsoft and Google goes down a mot more. You see HarmonyOS joined iOS and Android on the world stage. Yes, it is a mere third place, but every step they make is one that Apple and Google lose and Google has more problems because of the stupidity of the American legal system. They are just slicing pieces of the revenue pie for Huawei to take a bite from and as Huawei grows Google and Apple will lose some market share. And as Huawei and Tencent connect they will both grow stronger. How strong? That is not easy to say, but the small beginning will endure over time and America pushed for this and now it is too late. As the market changes Huawei and Tencent will robustly grow to some effect. Now we get the ‘accusation’ that Tencent is part of the Chinese military companies, which is formally known as the Section 1260H. And that is a nice game, but the others (pretty much all others) want to see evidence as Europe and the Commonwealth will demand evidence. They are seeing what revenue these two players bring and Microsoft merely brought failure after failure. As I see it innovation talks and failure walks alone and when someone will consider the turncoat metrics of Microsoft trying to get whatever they can as their console and tablet fails to do. As for Azure? It is lagging behind AWS (Amazon) by 50%, so don’t get your hope up. Another failure as I see it. So how much revenue is lost over these three parts only? So as the secretary of the Pentagon is not too busy (Miss E Dens) we would like to see the evidence that Tencent is part of the Chinese military. I don’t say it is not, I merely want to see evidence for a change (we never saw the WMD evidence, or the Huawei evidence), just for argument sake.

Have a great day, my Wednesday started 3000 seconds ago.

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December 16, 2024 · 18:57

The statistics are against me

Yup, that happens and I don’t believe it is a worrying issue. You see, it started a little over a year ago and I created my first (sort of) script. It is called ‘How to assassinate a politician’ which I later ‘reset’ to ‘Essay’. MY first script was meant specifically for an islamic audience which could have graced the walls of the UAE or the Saudi media bosses. I saw the story and it was my response to an Islamophobe population. And how to better serve it than to assassinate the biggest European islamophobic of all Geert Wilders (now PM of the Netherlands). I thought it was an excellent idea (a pure personal thought). Yet now I am confronted with ‘How the creative economy drives growth in the Middle East’ (at https://economymiddleeast.com/news/how-creative-economy-drives-growth-middle-east/). Here I see “In the UAE, a global creative hub, Dubai Media City is home to a talent pool of over 40,500 creative professionals”, so what was I thinking? Well, the short of this is that I write to feed the creative beast in me. I was unaware of just how large the Media City population was, and if you go by that setting you will never get anything done.

And whilst you are mulling over “The UN Trade and Development Creative Economy Outlook 2024 highlights the crucial role of creative industries in global trade and economic growth. According to the UNCTAD survey, the creative economy contributes between 0.5 percent and 7.3 percent of GDP and employs 0.5 percent to 12.5 percent of the workforce in various countries. “The creative economy has the right forces pushing its sails. This is not just art. It is an economic powerhouse that we must harness together, leaving no one behind,” stated Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of UNCTAD.”” You see, it is nice to hide behind numbers at one setting, but the source of the numbers matter a well. I find a little worrying setting behind the statement “The creative economy has the right forces pushing its sails. This is not just art. It is an economic powerhouse that we must harness together, leaving no one behind” my issue is in one direction “leaving no one behind”, which is nice, but that is a political statement and Grynspan was in the past Grynspan was a professor and researcher at the Economic Science Research Institute at the University of Costa Rica. This is not some anti statement. I always wonder and become ‘skeptical’ when a politician makes a “leaving no one behind” in their setting. Because that tends to rally towards “We were however forced to make choices” and that always goes at the expense of Art, especially when dollar numbers are involved. That and the setting of “employs 0.5 percent to 12.5 percent of the workforce in various countries”, which is quite the distribution. So where is it 12.5%? Hollywood with its 153,859 villagers? Some other consideration would be ‘the UNCTAD survey’, which I am not attacking now, as I have never read it. But the stage of a survey calls with me the setting of data. What data? What was filtered? How was it collected? What nations participated? Indonesia has around 277.5 million people, how many does its media (online and other) have? Simple questions really. 

When we dig into the matter, we see “Middle Eastern countries recognise the potential of the creative economy. In the region, the intersection of the digital and creative industries, in particular — encompassing the use of artificial intelligence (AI), Web3, and virtual reality — is driving innovation and economic diversification.” I still shiver at the notion that AI does not yet exist, no matter how many players boom the bubble of the AI vibe, it does not yet exist and we need to take notice of this. It might be fuelling the desire for it to be here, but it isn’t and when the world starts wondering the simple equation of “LLM’s vs AI” and true data parsing, its verification process and programmers with its algorithms the statement “According to a white paper by Dubai Design District and Dubai Media City, the global digital creative economy could grow by 11 percent annually, reaching a staggering AED27 trillion by 2030.” I fear for the fallout it precedes. And like the other papers the question of population, collection and reading the data will get a much higher priority. I winder how certain power players will address and respond to “a staggering AED27 trillion by 2030”, you see, joy of a revenue is nice, but the fear of it falling short in 5 years will be on the forefront of nearly every mind who depended on this fuelling stage. 

There is a side I fully agree with. It is seen in “In November, Dubai Media City underscored the essential role of multicultural creativity at this year’s Global Media Congress held in ADNEC Center Abu Dhabi.” I believe that true creativity can only be seen in a multicultural setting as such the UAE has a jump on all other nations as I personally see it and even as I shiver at the 40,500 setting (I am not debating or attacking it) I understand that my script had very little chance to begin with. I am still proud I wrote it and there are three more coming (not with Islamic values in mind), but that is the state of the world. Creativity is where our thoughts take us. And we respond as we would or as we can. The first one was islamic in nature, but that doesn’t mean all will be and multicultural is the first step of being truly creative. What matters to me are a few things and the stage of the numbers is one, articles rarely spell that out and as such it becomes my setting that I wish I knew more of UNCTAD and their numbers, because it is at the heart of the matter here. And here is the spiller (or killer). You see, the UN Trade and Development has a UNCTADstat Data centre. I took a look (at https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/) where I found “International trade in creative services: estimates for individual economies” an experimental part that has data from 2010 to 2018 and shows us Saudi Arabia, but not the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as such I wonder where the numbers are coming from. The article does not give us that part. I saw the Creative Economy Outlook 2024. The word ‘Statistics’ is given to us 23 times, and always with references like {Key Statistics and Trends in Trade Policy 2022. UNCTAD/DITC/TAB/2023/2. Geneva.} Yet the report gives us no real numbers (like raw data) or the reference to raw data has exactly 0 hits. As such I tend to have a more skeptical view on such a presentation. As such when ‘confirming’ the survey, I see another ‘hitch’ the fact that the phrase ‘in countries where data is available’ is missing from the article. It happens, but as I see it, it is kinda sloppy. With the rather large setting shown (in the UN pdf) that we see “inputs received through the 2024 UNCTAD Survey on the Creative Economy from the following countries: Albania, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Benin, Cambodia, China, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Libya, Malaysia, Mauritius, Montenegro, Mozambique, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Seychelles, Slovenia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Uzbekistan and Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.” And here we get the other shoe dropped. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are not mentioned at all. This is not on these countries, but as I see it The editorial of the Middle East economy has a little explaining to do (as I personally see it), it might be merely semantics, but that is at times how I roll.

And there is more on the graphics, one pie chart merely shows Saudi Arabia and the UAE as part of the EMEA region, as such I wonder which part of the 21% is Europe, because that sets a much larger premise of advertisement per region and population. There is no real way that Saudi Arabia and the UAE can compete in advertising against a population of 742 million europeans. As such I start to develop questions (as I would).

Well that was it for now, I’ll add the United Nations PDF at the bottom, it took me less than 10 minutes to scope out the questions you see here and if I took a little more time I will find a lot more. But that is the setting of a political brief (as I see it), I also didn’t see (I might have missed that) on the definition of the media and what sources are set to what medium. You see, there is a chart on Global video games revenues, and predictively set (based on data) this is always an upward spiral because there are no sources (or data) available for the Playstation 6, the Nintendo Switch 2, or the Tencent handheld. They are the tomorrow systems and there is no data on any of that a present. But the larger audiences are already looking into these parts. So what gives on the data?

A mere simple question that has no easy answer, I get that, because presumption is always on what is known, but take the simple setting in 2012 the PS4 was released. It got more than 50 million consoles out and obliterated the Microsoft product. In 2016 Microsoft merely gave us all Xbox live numbers. So when we see that, what numbers does UNCTAD have to set the Total video games revenue from 225 to 312 billion and Video games advertising from 75 to 137 billion between 2023 and 2027? A lot higher than Traditional games which went from 55 to 62 billion? The numbers do not reflect each other. As you might guess that sets gaming in a dead drop against advertisement, a bad business practice as I personally see it. And I could go on but when you see it was a forecast based on PwC’s Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2023-2027 (so based on what numbers?) This is merely what I found in under an hour. As such question all numbers that have no accompanying response setting (aka N). 

Also when we get the Countries with the most significant art markets by value of sales in 2023 and we see USA, France, UK, China and other with France at 7% and other at 15%, where do the UAE and Saudi Arabia end up? Consider that a place with 40,500 members do not surpass France and are part of the 15% What is the setting for them? I wonder if the Middle East Economy had those questions in mind when they released that story. As I see it a simple question really.

1416030-ENDownload

Have a great Monday.

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December 5, 2024 · 17:07

The price of debt.

That is what I am looking at, the price of debt. You see, they are all hailing that the US economy is strong. One voice (Goldman Sachs), the one that lost it all in 2007 told the world that America would be strong at 2.5% (somewhere I read it). To all it sounds nice and I like nice, but I also query a system that is to my (non-economic view) is rigged. As we see images all over the place on how good things are supposed to be, consider:

We see the setting as tax collected. For 2023 is was “The US government collected nearly $4.7 trillion in gross taxes during the 2023 fiscal year, which is a 15.5% decrease from 2022. The IRS collected taxes from a variety of sources”, now for some it is a little more then milk money. And that sounds nice, but the other side has “As of October 2024, the United States government’s monthly interest rate on its debt is 3.3%. The average interest rate for 2024 is 3.32%, and the total debt is $35.46 trillion.” Consider the simple setting of 3.32% of $35.46 trillion. This gives us $1,170,180,000,000 dollar annually. Which would be ‘liveable’ were it not for the simple fact that this is ONLY interest. The debt remains. And now we have a problem. You see the interest is is a simple 24.89% of the entire taxable revenue and it was 15.5% less from 2022. Do you now see the problem? 25% of all taxable revenue goes to the banks that carry the debt. The federal government spent $6.75 trillion in FY 2022. This means that they spend over 30% to much, more than they had and if there was no debt we could argue, but at this setting we are faced with the simple fact that $6.75 trillion was spent over an available amount of $3.5 trillion, which is getting worse and worse. As such we could surmise that the debt will increase with a little over 3 trillion over spending over last year alone. As I see it America is done for. And the setting worsens with the optional crushing of Google in 2025 (by breaking up that firm) which give Huawei their first global win. Then the defence industry is losing more and more revenue to China and this sets a larger premise. In that setting we see on one hand “The A&D industry generated $425 billion in economic value, representing 1.6 percent of the 2023 nominal GDP in the U.S.”, yet in this we already seeing revenue shifting to China in this year alone and more revenue goes to Europe. For Saudi Arabia alone this sets the bar at “In 2024, the Saudi Arabian defense budget is worth $71.7 billion and will grow at a CAGR of more than 8% during 2025-2029.” Yet other sources give us that “Saudi Arabia estimates military spending will be 15 percent lower than budgeted this year” as such we could surmise that this implies that Saudi Arabia by itself would spend $10 billion less. Not a biggie you say, but the other side is that China now has a little over 10% on that slice of delicious gunpowder baked pie. Making the loss for America more. As such we see an annual loss of $16 billion in one year alone from one customer. As such, what would be the books on India, Japan, Taiwan, Pakistan and Indonesia? If we see these picture, we see a dangerous escalation towards some fictive nil revenue for America. Fictive because that will never happen, but as the largest players seek economic stability they will spend less and take other jobs ‘in-house’ as the expression goes and America has been too reluctant to appease to that state of mind. And now China will step in to offer just that. As I see it, the question on the dollar setting was wrong. We are given “As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD” against the tariffs threat by president elect Trump. The actual question would become “How long could the US Dollar keep standing?” You see, as the debt becomes a millstone around the neck of the US administration, we need to consider that some nations will seek shelter from the fallout that this setting. In 2017, on March 17th I wrote ‘The finality of French freedom’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/), I set the comparison of the Euro like a barge kept in balance by 4 strong economies. UK, France, Germany and a combined economic anchor. The UK was lost and there was a setting when the French anchor would be lost too. The Euro could not survive a setting with two anchors. A simple equation. Now with the Dollar under attack the Euro could face near certain scuttling. As such the Dollar has an influence there. China seemingly doesn’t care, but the other players who make up a combined anchor might switch sides when they merely look at their own currency. And the debt? They will not care. And as such the dollar faces a lot more than the bully tactics of choice. They will need to up the game by a lot, because when one goes, so will the other and that puts the livelihood and liveability of 784 million people at the markers. 100,000 of them will do fine, but that represents a simple 0.01275348% of people who are likely to make it (outside of the EU and USA), so when were that good statistics? 

The price of debt was always there, but the media has been eager and willing to hide those facts through BS and spin and soon when the people catch on (the other 99.987% of people), the live of playing the media courtesan will be one of the most dangerous of them all. People remember. And it was a simple equation for the media. “You can fool all the people some of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time but you can never fool all of the people all of the time” A simple setting I knew to be true as early as the early 80’s. So how long did they have at most? Some are already falling in the bad light and when the people realise that they weren’t eating potatoes, but turnips. They will become massively enraged. 

A simple setting I have known to become reality at some point. So when are we given the goods? When the interest of the debt of America is shown as a setting against the budget and at this time it is around 25%, Americans need to realise that budgets need to diminish by at least 30%, so at what point do the people realise that the simplicity of the matter is that their money is about to be gone?

Have a lovely day.

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December 3, 2024 · 22:58

Bully tactics

The BBC (LinkedIn also) gave us a story. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgrwj0p2dd9o) is giving us ‘Trump threatens 100% tariff on Brics nations if they try to replace dollar’. We are given “US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on a bloc of nine nations if they were to create a rival currency to the US dollar. “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” Trump wrote on social media on Saturday.”Now we can shout high and low, but the simple setting is that this is merely the second setting on the line that the good times are over in the US and things are about to get a lot worse. The simplest setting to consider is that if these facts present themselves the first hurdle will crash the little economy that they have. Let me explain. If President elect Trump goes through with that. Stuff in a place called Walmart will become close to twice as expensive. This implies that Walmart will drop all goods from China and India. As such others will have to provide, which will turn out to be close to impossible. Consider that Walmart employs 2,100,000 people and as I see it close to 60% will be out of a job then. Walmart has a net income of 16 billion dollars. It comes from $648 billion dollars. Now all these Chinese and Indian goods would get a 100% Tarif. So what happens when all those goods get a 100% surcharge? The American administration will drown Walmart into oblivion. Add to that the Google issues and China will get near clean run on running the global economy. So why wouldn’t they push for a Yuan to become the new central currency? And in that process slam the American administration as well? I reckon that China is chomping at the bits to get started on that. With the hardships given to Google, Huawei gets a smashing option to take market shares from Google in Europe the Middle East and Asia. Apple will get hit, but not as much. Then we get the Walmart and its wannabe’s who rely on cheap goods from China and India and they will all pretty much lose whatever they had. When we see Walmarts closing all over America many will realise that the game for America is up. I did mention this danger for well over a decade. When you let the debt run out of control with no exit strategy there is no real solution coming. I saw that a mile away, so why didn’t these overpaid economists? Now we get the new AI bubble and soon people will realise that it is merely another gimmick. When the revenue stays away from the books, when these revenues get pushed back again and again the third step will be reached. So president elect can bully as much as they can, but the pole position was missed and whomever is in control have no solutions to offer other then austerity that goes beyond anything Wall Street could ever have predicted and the party is over now. Don’t worry the family members to Sam Walton and Bud Walton will be fine. They can relocate to a nice place where they can spend their money. The other 2.1 million are royally screwed. I will not blame any Walton. They played the economy game and they played it well, they have options. The bulk will not. And when the dollar is replaced, banks, retirement companies will as I suspect buckle as well. The impact of a $36,000,000,000,000 debt. The impact will go slow but it would be undeniable. As BRICS decides on another currency they will attract several other players and the European parties will consider the change and they will do what is in the best interest of their Euro, they will not care about the US dollar for one second. That is the reality that was pretty much spelled out half a decade ago. I get that America will try to do what is best for America, but that option was nulled when parties decided to break up Google. That was the first step towards the end. And now Huawei will be the best option for many players. So as the economic map will be redrawn, we will see a new horizon with India, China, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia at the head of this new horizon. In that new map there is no longer a mention of America, the US dollar will remain a little while longer until all other nations have dumped trillions in dollar bonds. That will be the trigger that ends the world economy as it currently is. 

Have a great day today, tomorrow is the midweek and a mere three weeks until Christmas.

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