Tag Archives: SPSS

November 13, 2025 · 10:22

Labels

That is the setting and I introduce the readers to this setting yesterday, but there was more and there always is. Labels is how we tend to communicate, there is the label of ‘Orange baboon’ there is the label of ‘village idiot’ and there are many more labels. They tend to make life ‘easy’ for us. They are also the hidden trap we introduce to ourselves. In the ‘old’ days we even signify Business Intelligence by this, because it was easy for the people running these things. 

And example can be seen in

TABLES
 / v1 v2 v3 v4 v5 BY (LABELS)
 / count.

And we would see the accommodating table with on one side completely agree, agree, neutral, disagree and completely disagree, if that was the 5 point labeling setting we embraced and as such we saw a ‘decently’ complete picture and we all agreed that this was that is had to be.

But the not so hidden snag is that in the first these labels are ordinal (at best) and the setting of Likert scales (their official name) are not set in a scientific way, there is no equally adjusted difference between the number 1,2,3,4,5. That is just the way it is. And in the old days this was OK (as the feeling went). But today in what she call the AI setting and I call it NIP at best, the setting is too dangerous. Now, set this by ‘todays’ standards.

The simple question “Is America bankrupt?” Gets all kinds of answers and some will quite correctly give us “In contrast, the financial health of the United States is relatively healthy within the context of the total value of U.S. assets. A much different picture appears once one looks at the underlying asset base of the private and public economy.” I tend to disagree, but that is me without me economic degrees. But in the AI world it is a simple setting of numbers and America needs Greenland and Canada to continue the retention that “the United States is relatively healthy within the context of the total value of U.S. assets”, yes that would be the setting but without those two places America is likely around bankrupt and the AI bubble will push them over the edge. At least that is how I see it and yesterday I gave one case (or the dozen or so cases that will follow in 2026) in that stage this startup is basically agreeing to a larger then 2 billion settlement. So in what universe does a startup have this money? That is the constriction of AI, and in that setting of unverified and unscaled data the presence gets to be worse. And I remember a answer given to me at a presentation, the answer was “It is what it is” and I kinda accepted it, but an AI will go bonkers and wrong in several ways when that is handed to it. And that is where the setting of AI and NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) becomes clear. NIP is merely a 90’s chess game that has been taught (trained) every chess game possible and it takes from that setting, but the creative intellect does an illogical move and the chess game loses whatever coherency it has, that move was never programmed and that is where you see the difference between AI and NIP. The AI will creatively adjust its setting, the NIP cannot and that is what will set the stage for all these class actions. 

The second setting is ‘human’ error. You see, I placed the Likert scale intentionally, because in between the multitude of 1-5 scales there is one likely variable that was set to 5-1 and the programmers overlooked them and now when you see these AI training grounds at least one variable is set in the wrong direction, tainting the others and massing with the order of the adjusted personal scales. And that is before we get to the result of CLUSTER and QUICKCLUSTER results where a few more issues are introduced to the algorithm of the entire setting and that is where the verification of data becomes imperative and at present.

So here is a sort of random image, but the question it needs to raise is what makes these different sources in any way qualified to be a source? In this case if the data is skewed in Ask Reddit, 93% of the data is basically useless and that is missed on a few levels. There are quality high data sources, but these are few and far in-between, in the mean time these sources get to warp any other data we have. And if you are merely looking at legacy data, there is still the Likert scale data you in your own company had and that data is debatable at best. 

Labels are dangerous and they are inherently based on the designer of that data source (possible even long dead) and it tends to be done in his of her early stages of employment, making the setting even more debatable as it was ‘influenced’ by greedy CEO’s and CFO’s and they had their bonus in mind. A setting mostly ignored by all involved. 

As such are you surprised that I see the AI bubble to what it is? A dangerous reality coming our way in sudden likely unforeseen ways and it is the ‘unforeseen way’ that is the danger, because when these disgruntled employees talk to those who want to win a class action, all kinds of data will come to the surface and that is how these class actions are won. 

It was a simple setting I saw coming a mile away and whilst you wandered by I added the Dr. Strange part, you merely thought you had the labels thought through but the setting was a lot more dangerous and it is heading straight to your AI dataset. All wrongly thought through, because training data needs to have something verifiable as ‘absolutely true’ and that is the true setting and to illustrate this we can merely make a stop at Elon Musk inc. Its ‘AI’ grok having the almost prefect setting. We are given from one source “The bot has generated various controversial responses, including conspiracy theories, antisemitism, and praise of Adolf Hitler, as well as referring to Musk’s views when asked about controversial topics or difficult decisions.” Which is almost a dangerous setting towards people fueling Grok in a multitude of ways and ‘Hundreds of thousands of Grok chats exposed in Google results’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrkmk00jy0o) where we see “The appearance of Grok chats in search engine results was first reported by tech industry publication Forbes, which counted more than 370,000 user conversations on Google. Among chat transcripts seen by the BBC were examples of Musk’s chatbot being asked to create a secure password, provide meal plans for weight loss and answer detailed questions about medical conditions.” Is there anybody willing to do the honors of classifying that data (I absolutely refuse to do so) and I already gave you the headwind in the above story. In the fist how many of these 370,000 users are medical professionals? I think you know where this is going. And I think Grok is pretty neat as a result, but it is not academically useful. At best it is a new form of Wikipedia, at worst it is a round data system (trashcan) and even though it sounds nice, it is as nice as labels can be and that is exactly why these class cases will be decided out of court and as I personally see it when these hit Microsoft and OpenAI will shell over trillions to settle out of court, because the court damage will be infinitely worse. And that is why I see 2026 as the year the graded driven get to start filling to fill their pockets, because the mindful hurt that is brought to court is as academic as a Likert scale, not a scientific setting among them and the pre-AI setting of Mental harm as ““Mental damage” in court refers to psychological injury, such as emotional trauma or psychiatric conditions, that can be the basis for legal claims, either as a plaintiff seeking compensation or as a criminal defendant. In civil cases, plaintiffs may seek damages for mental harm like PTSD, depression, or anxiety if they can prove it was caused by another party’s negligent or wrongful actions, provided it results in a recognizable psychiatric illness.” So as you see it, is this enough or do you want more? Oh, screw that, I need coffee now and I have a busy day ahead, so this is all you get for now.

Have a great day, I am trying to enjoy Thursday, Vancouver is a lot behind me on this effort. So there is a time scale we all have to adhere to (hidden nudge) as such enjoy the day.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

August 4, 2025 · 13:16

Saudization

A term I got introduced to last week. It stands for “the Saudi nationalization scheme and also known as Nitaqat, is a policy that is implemented in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by the Ministry of Labor and Social Development, which requires companies and enterprises to fill their workforce with Saudi nationals up to certain levels” I think it is a great idea. I think more countries need to embrace such a scheme for a few reasons. I believe it is essential that skills are moved locally to avoid being at the massive risk of an American need and that is a bad idea on a few levels. Now, this is not an anti-America sentiment, but the media (America too) have left us with the notion that we cannot be certain of almost anything and there is the larger setting that it goes to other countries too. Perhaps there is an Emiratization, an optional Indonesization (these two words might not exist) and several others (Pakistan, Bangladesh) and so on. So why is there not an open video channel with options on both YouTube and TikTok handing these skills? If I merely push this to myself. There is the option to train people (non-Arabic) in IBM Statistics (formerly known as SPSS) I trained people for over a decade and that is a skill that can be taught. Edit the movie with a localised soundtrack and you have a solution to optionally train dozens of people.

If we create a few hundred videos we could optionally train a whole legion of people and as the elder generation (including me) could leave a footprint handing this knowledge out to others we continue training people after we are gone. I also worked in call centers and whilst the world is filled with silliness and chases after AI, the skills that are out there will be lost soon enough. As such we (read: some)  need to create the stages for the next generation. Whilst all are on the AI train we might see a setting of dwindling down sources and in a decade when AI misses its target the world will suddenly see that they lost more than they bargained for. As such a video station that allows Saudization to grow into the people who cannot see what they need and can freely learn to grow their own future is a proper way to harvest talents where they freely grow.

So you might think that this comes for free and that might be the case. Yet the older generations feels that they can contribute to any setting that will listen. As such these skills will require verification so that quality will prevail. Yet is it such a hardship on the older generation? They contribute to all kinds of non profit organisations. Is it so hard to believe that they would assist in creating the future generations? The world is not what big corporations believe it to be, it is what the next generation wants it to be and as such this idea stands a chance. In the setting we see now it might benefit Saudi Arabia. Yet when these movies get a larger setting in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Uruguay and other places, we grow the knowledge in all kinds of directions and as it should be offered free knowledge will emboss all people, not just the ones who can afford it. 

It is just a little idea I am playing with, but I reckon that some governments will embrace what hundreds of people could contribute to their national causes.

Have a great day

Leave a comment

Filed under Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 26, 2025 · 22:06

The tradeoff

That is at times the question and the BBC is introducing us to a hell of a tradeoff. The story (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0kglle0p3vo) is giving us ‘Meta considers charging for ad-free Facebook and Instagram in the UK’, the setting is not really a surprise. On April 10th 2018 we were clearly given “Senator, we run ads” and we all laughed. Congress is trying to be smart over and over again and Mark Zuckerberg was showing them the ropes. Every single time. There was little or no question on this on how they were making money. Yet now the game changes. You see, in the past Facebook (say META) was the captain of their data vessel. A system where they had the power and the collective security of our data in hands. There was no question on any setting and even I was in the assumption that they had firm hands on a data repository a lot larger than the vault if the Bank of England. That was until Cambridge Analytica and in March 2018 their business practices were shown the limelight and it also meant that Facebook no longer had control of their ship of data, which meant that their ‘treasure’ was fading. 

So now we get “Facebook and Instagram owner Meta is considering a paid subscription in the UK which would remove adverts from its platforms. Under the plans, people using the social media sites could be asked to pay for an ad-free experience if they do not want their data to be tracked.” It makes perfect sense that under the guise of no advertising, the mention of paid services make perfect sense. This is given to us via the setting of “It comes as the company agreed to stop targeting ads at a British woman last week following a protracted legal battle.” I don’t get it, the protracted legal battle seems odd as this was the tradeoff for a free service. Is this a woke thing? You get a free service and the advertising is the process for this. As such I do not get the issue of “Guidance issued by the regulator in January states that users must be presented with a genuine free choice.” This makes some kind of sense, so it is either pay for the service or suffer the consequences of advertising. And lets be clear the value of META relies on targeted advertising. What is the use of targeting everyone for a car ad when it includes the 26% of the people who do not have a drivers license. There is the addition that these people need to have an income of over $45,000 to afford the 2025 Lexus RX $90,350 which is about 30%. We can (presumptively) assume that this get us a population of about 20%-25%, so does it make any sense for Lexus to address the 100% whilst only one in four or one in five is optionally in the market? Makes no sense does it? As such META needs to rely on as much targeted advertising as it can. And as you can see, The advertising model, known as “consent or pay”, has become increasingly popular. And at some point they were giving the people “But it reduced its prices and said it would provide a way for users not willing to pay to opt to see adverts which are “less personalised”, in response to regulatory concerns.” That is partially acceptable, but I have a different issue. You see, I foresee issues with “less personalised”, apart from gambling sites, there is a larger concern that even as Facebook (or META) isn’t capturing some data. There is the larger fear that some will offer some services and now care about capturing collected data. For example sites outside the EU (or UK). Sites in China and Russia like their social sites that collect this data and optionally sell it to META. You see, there is as I currently see it no defense on this. Like in the 90’s when American providers made some agreement, but some of them did not qualify the stage of what happened to the data backups and those were not considered, when they were addressed it was years later and the data had left the barn (almost everywhere). 

There is a fear (a personal fear) that the so called captains of industry have not considered (I reckon intentionally) the need of replacing and protecting aggregated data and aggregated results. Which allows for a whole battery of additional statistics. Another personal fear is the approach to data and what they laughingly call AI. It is hard to set a stage, but I will try. 

To get this I will refer to a program called SPSS (now IBM Statistics) so called {In SPSS, cluster analysis groups similar data points into clusters, while discriminant analysis classifies data points into pre-defined groups based on predictor variables.}

So to get data points into a grouping like income to household types, this is a cluster analyses.

And to get household types onto data points like income to household types, is called a discriminant analyses. Now as I personally see it (I am definitely not a statistician) If one direction is determined, the other one should always fail. It is a one direction solution. So a cluster analyses is proven, a discriminant analyses to income ill always fail and vice versa. Now with NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing, which is what these AI firms do) They will try to set a stage to make this work. And that is how the wheels come of the wagon and we get a whole range of weird results. But now as people set the stage for contributing to third party parsing and resource aggregation, I feel that a dangerous setting could evolve and there is no defense against that. As I see it, the ‘data boys’ need to isolate the chance of us being aggregated through third parties and as I see it META needs to be isolated from that level of data ‘intrusion’. A dangerous level of data to say the least.

There is always a downside to a tradeoff and too many aren’t aware of the downside of that tradeoff. So have a great day and try to have a half cup of good coffee (data boys get that old premise)

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , ,

December 30, 2024 · 17:38

Return of DM

You have probably seen it, I definitely have and they all call it “A call to AI arms” or something of that sort. It started an hour ago. I saw a security guard and I said “That shop is deceiving us, they say 50% of everything and they are still wearing all their clothes”, the guard was not amused, or perhaps his sense of humour doesn’t go that far. It might not have been overly funny, but at that moment a few things clicked together. And I was of to the races. You see, a few things clicked together and it started yesterday, but my subconscious had figured a few things out that my brain was still working on. 

Part 1
Part 1 woke me up to what some laughingly call AI. It was shown to me as a YouTube video. The video (at https://youtube.com/shorts/Kt_oGa4jLik) gives us an “AI” version of the statue. 

Screenshot

There is a setting that could work. Consider the increase of interest in Latin and Roman ways of life. To get these statues ‘brought’ to life has advantages. In the first we would not need to rely on actors for all of it and it would be one way to give more impact to the work of Edward Gibbon (1776) published the first volume of his The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Decline and Fall has been the theme around which much of the history of the Roman Empire has been structured. And it doesn’t click with too many of us, but when these statues come to life and as they give life to the writings something more comes to us, especially when it is in Latin. Now you see the first constraint. To see a few seconds of LLM on a statue is one thing, to get people to watch 24 times 45 minutes the constraint will become visible to all. Constraints are seen when the technology just isn’t ready and the utter bull we see on LinkedIn on a daily basis that our future is AI, when it doesn’t exist (yet) gives you a clear pause. But some people need this bubble to exist, their livelihood actually depends on this.

Part 2
Part 2 is LinkedIn. You see, I get a regular image on whether I am hiring. And the options are Yes and Not right now. This isn’t AI, or any kind of AI. This is Direct Marketing and that is what you resort to when you have no data. In 1998 I got a nice taste of that. Someone told me “You either bombard someone with DM, or you start getting clever about who you address the marketing to” it was a clever setting because that was when SPSS launched Answertree. The selected choice for those who wanted to waste as little as possible and when the penetration is a mere 4%, being clever will pay off nicely.

The setting we see now is a combination of constraints and abilities. We have no AI abilities and neither do the computers. As such certain people are trying to sell you a concept, an idea on how things will go and as such they create models that learn everything. So as such they are trying to WOW you with examples on YouTube and LinkedIn on how to do that, but the constraints are there and when you see the constraints you will try to get off that train and the people will have gotten you invested at boarding that train. As such you are hooked and then the limits become visible. 

Part 3
The third part came yesterday in a dream, but the setting was seen at least a month ago. I saw it somewhere in November when I stumbled upon it, but it never clicked, because I wasn’t looking for it. But yesterday in that dream I saw the interaction of SPSS (AS400 version) with an export via EXCEL into SAP Dashboard. I had not used that combination in over a decade, but the image was there. Now, I get that these numbers aren’t ‘inspiring’ to anyone else than investors and the board of directors at ADNOC, but to create traction you need inspiring views and the report (added below) doesn’t have that and that is not on ADNOC, you need a better setting for that and that is usually where the car sinks (or strands). 

As I personally see it, constraints are surpassed when you give free reign to data to create interest and one place to do this is using SAP Dashboard to create this (originally called xcelcius). That is when market research used the combination to create visible waves in a new setting that people had not seen before and that creates the traction they needed. So what about the numbers shown via a dashboard? It isn’t just oil that requires presentation. You see Abu Dhabi has International Holding Company (IHC), Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA), ADNOC Gas L.C. and First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB). These four represent 1.5 trillion in revenue. I reckon that they could use a more visible setting in presenting self and that is merely in one location. And no AI was needed here. A mere look at presenting different and showing themself in other ways. When you realise what dashboard can achieve, they will achieve more all whilst AI is still being created. So whilst we applaud the LLM (and DML) of statues, the moment one person states that Julius Caesar can give voice to his work (for example Commentarii de Bello Gallico) and the constraints make it fall short, you will realise that there is some length to go until AI is an actual reality. 

That was the parts my dream didn’t give me and a simple sign that bustled with inaccuracies (of everything) that was when my brain clicked the part together. OK, I can be slow too. Yet I take pride in my slowness, especially when my brain refuses to wake up, which it did to me today.

So have a great day and remember that tomorrow is the last day to learn what sex 2024 was about.

ADNOC Distribution_Q3 2024_FS_ENGDownload

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

December 29, 2024 · 22:00

At the close of a year

This might be the last article this year (no promises). I have been haunted by a weird dream, but that is not what this is about. You see, the army recognition group gave us yesterday (at https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2024/saudi-arabia-eyes-up-to-100-turkish-kaan-fighter-jets-as-us-made-f-35-remains-inaccessible) ‘Saudi Arabia eyes up to 100 Turkish Kaan fighter jets as US-made F-35 remains inaccessible.’ I know nothing of this plane, so I am not going in that direction. The setting that the US set the inability of the F35 being handed to Saudi hands is worthy of responding to. You see, the pricing of the F35 is set to “$102.1 million for the F-35C.” This means that America lifted their nose at 10 – 25 billion of hard needed income. The planes, the support and engineering surplus and a few other options. I expected that China would ‘swoop’ in to get that money. It is decently plausible that their were more reasons. I am merely setting that this could also mean the end of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), you see, airbases on foreign ground are meant for allies and America has priced them out of that corner. As I see it Anthony Blinken has done away with that option. You see, only two months ago we got “US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday sought to make headway with Saudi Arabia on” whatever ‘his’ administration is ‘worried’ about. You need to have an ally for that and the fact that the F35 has been ‘unavailable’ since 2012. That is over 12 years, so as the F35 faces being optionally phased out by 2030, they lost one of their biggest customers and provisional ally in the Arabic peninsula as I personally see it. 

And America? Well, who needs an ally who is never there? That is the short and sweet part of this all and for Turkey this might be the sweet deal of the century. At some point the UAE and Egypt will also require 5th gen stealth fighters. This will make it harder for America and China to get traction. I never expected that Turkey was on that level, but that shows you what I know of this field.

And this is not the first time America, Europe and China enter behind the fishnet only to end up with nothing. This potential purchase follows Saudi Arabia’s $3.1 billion agreement with Türkiye in 2023 for the acquisition of 60 Baykar AKINCI unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), set for delivery in 2025 and 2026.

So, when was the last time major governments walked away from a potential 15 billion deal? America might shout tariffs and the upcoming said expansion with their 51st state (Canada), but they forget that Canada is part of a Commonwealth and in their views (the Commonwealth) it amounts to a direct assault on the Commonwealth. So when was the last time a nation was engaged with the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, India, South Africa and at least two dozen more. If they reject all imports from America, the American economy goes the way of the dodo a lot faster than the dodo did. For China it sounds like a prolonged Christmas. You see, if they get traction with the Commonwealth, a desire they never thought realistic, but going after their largest member Canada might set that deal to nominal.

That as the rejection of billions set a dangerous premise for America and Saudi Arabia can play hard to get in that instance. So the next threat by the president elect Trump will set a minefield around (presumed) Marco Rubio making his job next to impossible. 

But we will see what will happen. In the meantime we should send a congratulatory card to Turkey for this achievement.

And of course the card for the next tenant of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), but that is likely to follow in 2025/2026. As I see it, the next two years are close to essential for the next administration to avoid a governmental garage sale. But what do I know?

Still, in retrospect the dream still bugs me. The dream was a job at ADNOC, in Abu Dhabi. They had an AS400 running SPSS 6.1.3 and it had been gathering dust. It wasn’t working and the people at IBM said it was the fault of ADNOC. In the dream I merely had to remove 2 lines (reading ASCII data), two variables Alphanumeric were making a mess of things and removing the two lines solved 96% of the issue. 96% was fixed in the first hour (well for one job). I needed two additional hours to align the alphanumeric fields. And that took two hours to work out, I used Excel for that (the one Microsoft program Microsoft got right). And with that the first month was back on track. A weird setting, as I know next to nothing of ADNOC, I know that they are in oil, and that is all. I haven’t thought of that program in over 2 decades, so what gives? Well, in part technical support at SPSS was perhaps one of the most fulfilling jobs. But the powers that be didn’t see me as IBM material. O well, such is life. 

Time to head to the end of the year and see what 2025 will bring. 

Have a great day and the optional conclusion of a great year.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

July 15, 2023 · 22:07

A 2 minute warning?

Yes, we can relate. Yet some will think it is about the 1976 movie, and they are not entirely incorrect. It has a different relationship. It is about a BBC article (at https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230712-consumer-brands-leave-social-media-meta-threads) where we see ‘Why your favourite brand may be taking a social media break’. It is here where the speculations start. We are given “Like many of us, big companies are struggling to keep up with the number of social media platforms vying for their time and attention. They’re faced with the important choice of which apps to choose, in a market where social media can be an important brand-building tool and enable them to target consumers where they are most active.” You see there is more than one stream in motion. It goes beyond sniping (or shotgun marketing for that matter). It is about amount of considering versus smart considering. It was never far of my mind. You see my IP was set on a premise and even as it had options for advertising, or sniping. It was never about the timeline. Facebook overplayed its hand. Not initially, but over time people are starting to resent this approach. And like that 1976 movie, you could take a sniper rifle into the LA Colosseum and seek your target. One building with packed people, the chance to find your target is decently high. Now consider that Facebook was the Gatling gun and people started to shy away from that building you see that building holds 77,500 people. The Gatling gun (modern version) shoots up to 6,000 rounds a minute, as such the entire stadium is covered in 13 minutes. A sniping rifle can never get there, but its usage is different, each shot is a kill. It is precise and takes time. Sniping advertising is the same. It take time and effort (and causes less alarm). Yet the return on investment is almost always there and that was the approach I had in my new solution. It allows the ‘target’ the choice and that is the operative word. I do not think that brands are taking a social media break. They are (finally) figuring out that you can either market more and more, or you can start being smart about how you market your brand (almost like SPSS Answertree, 1998). And brands are figuring out that they start need to become smart about there approach (which would work out nicely for me as well). The article mentions Lush cosmetics and “The beauty company initially dropped off the platforms in 2019, due to concerns about fighting with ever-changing social media algorithms as well as the company’s worry about the potentially negative impact of social media on young people.” I reckon they were ahead of the pack when they decided that and they were considering what was wise, what was clever and how to be smart about it. Meta cares about its own bottom dollar first and that is where the users see the impact of a free service. I got there in 2021 and my models are looking very awesome, and their view is improving by the month. As such I mentioned a few months ago that I would indirectly be taking business away from Meta (and others), now if Amazon wakes up, they could end up with the home and away advantage all at the same time. If not it will fall to Tencent Technologies. I reckon that they are about to realise what I found and my mind would be worth a lot overnight. Apple is still not out of the race I reckon (if they have the answer to the qualifying question) but it is too much speculation. This is about marketing and that is only the start. You see, no matter how we see it. Whether we consider shotgun marketing, sniping marketing, blanket marketing and a few other methods. In the end these are the old ways and when the new ways come to pass a lot of granular discussions go out of the window. You all saw Meta (or Facebook), YouTube and Instagram marketing as the next wave, it was never that, it was a digital approach to Direct Marketing and SPSS shot that to smithereens in 1998 when they gave the audiences on global level Answertree. When you realise the simplicity and the connected improved results of that solution, that is when you realise that the age of Meta is nearly over. They had a good run mind you. They ran marketing into new directions for 19 years, just like Direct Marketing did 2 decades before and whatever came before that. This doesn’t mean that Meta is ending, but it will see a reduced interest and others will push the next wave. Who it will be? I have no idea, I am not tapping the vein of marketing. I merely saw another option that could have benefits for me, merely a benefit and that was enough for me. The next marketing wave is for whomever has a life dedicated to marketing, it is not me.

So there might be a 2 minute warning, although in marketing terms it is most likely a 2 years warning, as such someone will be raking in new solutions somewhere in 2025 and I reckon that this is when other options will be drowning out the voices of fake news and real news and create a new setting of what consolidates the marketing and advertising surrounding it. But that is my speculated view on the matter.

Enjoy the weekend, just 48 hours at best to go.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 11, 2023 · 23:00

One bowl of speculation please

Yup, we all do it, we all like to taste from the bowl of speculation. I am no different, in my case that bowl can be as yummy as a leek potato soup, on other days it is like a thick soup of peas, potato with beef sausages. It tends to depend on the side of the speculation (science, engineering or Business Intelligence) today is Business Intelligence, which tends to be a deep tomato soup with croutons, almost like a thick minestra pomodore. I saw two articles today. The first one is seen (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-64917397) and comes from the BBC giving us ‘Meta exploring plans for Twitter rival’, no matter that we are given “It could rival both Twitter and its decentralised competitor, Mastodon. A spokesperson told the BBC: “We’re exploring a standalone decentralised social network for sharing text updates. “We believe there’s an opportunity for a separate space where creators and public figures can share timely updates about their interests.”” Whatever they are spinning here, make no mistake. This is about DATA, this is about AGGREGATION and about linking people, links that too often Twitter has and LinkedIn and Facebook does not. A stage where the people needs clustering to see how to profiles can be linked with minimum connectivity. It is what SPSS used to call PLANCARDS (conjoint module). In this by keeping the links as simple as possible, their deeper machine learning will learn new stage of connectivity. That is my speculated view. You see this is the age where those without exceptional deeper machine learning, new models need to be designed to catch up with players like Google and Amazon, so the larger speculation is that somehow Microsoft is involved, but I tell you now that this speculation is based on very thin and very slippery ice, it merely makes sense that these to will find some kind of partnership. The speculation is not based on pure logic, if that were true Microsoft would not be a factor at all.

But the second article (from a less reliable source is giving us (at https://newsroomodisha.com/meta-to-begin-laying-off-another-11k-employees-in-multiple-waves-next-week/) so they are investigating a new technology all whilst shedding 11% of their workforce. A workforce that is already strained to say the least and this new project will not rely on a dozen people, that project will involve a lot more people, especially if my PLANCARDS speculation is correct. That being said, if Microsoft is indeed a factor, the double stump might make more sense, hence the larger speculative side. Even as the second source gives us ““We’re continuing to look across the company, across both Family of Apps and Reality Labs, and really evaluate whether we are deploying our resources toward the highest leverage opportunities,” Meta Chief Financial Officer Susan Li said at an Morgan Stanley conference on Thursday. “This is going to result in us making some tough decisions to wind down projects in some places, to shift resources away from some teams,” Li added.” Now when we consider the words of Susan Li, the combination does not make too much sense. The chance of shedding the wrong people would give the game away, yes Twitter is in a bind, but it will add full steam in this case and they will find their own solutions (not sure where they will look), a stage that is coming and the two messages make very little sense. Another side might be pushing it if Meta is shedding jobs to desperately reduce cost, which is possible. I cannot tell at present, their CFO is not handing me their books for some weird reason.

Still, the speculation is real as the setting seems unnatural, but in IT that is nothing new, we have seen enough examples of that. So, enjoy your Saturday and feel free to speculate yourself, we all need that at times to TLC our own ego’s.

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , ,

June 15, 2022 · 20:48

Is it IP? Is it not?

Introduction
This is a story in parts, so lets begin with the introduction. In the old days (90’s) a company named SPSS (now part of IBM) came with a product called Answertree. It set the premise that Direct Marketing companies could either mail more or mail more clever. Th program allowed for the second part. So normally to get 15% more, you would have to mail 25% more, yet what happens when you get that result mailing 10% less? The system allowed for looking at the population you had, the population that responded and the two allowed you to see a tree, a tree with branches and connections. Soon you would see where to prune the tree, the parts that were not worth the squeeze wee pruned away and as you continue to prune this tree, you got a decent set of elements that were profitable. You learned that some elements are essential and others were not, you had a set of parameters to work with and in the old days you had 3.2% response, you got a new set where you only set out a mailing that was 80% of the first size and now you had a 6.8% response, it as clever mailing.

This reflects on Netflix and their ‘Netflix To Spend $17B On Content In 2021’, so what will they do in 2022, in 2023? That is the setting and there we get a new stage. What can be reused and what needs a rewrite, two settings that are still a lot cheaper than creating from scratch.

Prologue
Today I was thinking of an old hero. A Dutch actor named Joop Doderer. Those from my generation and the previous generation will all know him if they spend months in the Netherlands between 1955 and 1975. Joop gave view to the vagrant ‘Swiebertje’ and in those years there was not a Dutch person who did not know that name, a branding that could now not be matched by the Game of Thrones. As such I kept eyes on his work and knowing he was in something always brought a smile to my face. That is until today when I learned that there was one movie I actually never saw. In it were also Derek Jacobi, John Gielgud, and Richard Attenborough so several reasons to know this movie, and I missed it. It was The Human Factor (1979), the story was by Graham Greene all good reasons, and that is one side.

The next part is the view on intelligence. You see in this day and age there is practically no difference between state players and corporate players. Do you think that a fictive player like Zoogle will rely on the FBI to keep their AI safe? 

Business Intelligence is no longer simple data analyses, it has not been that for years. Now we get 

1. planning, 
2. identifying decision makers’s intelligence needs, 
3. collecting and analysing information, 
4. disseminating intelligence products and services, 
5. evaluating intelligence activities, 
6. promoting intelligence services among a client base,
7. additional industry-specific issues. 

Competitive Intelligence Division members concentrate on developing their competitive intelligence skills to assist them in functioning more effectively as intelligence professionals within their respective organisations. Combine these two elements and you could have the making of one hell of a killer thriller. You see we know that places have traitors, and nationally seen it is to black and white. I know as an Australian I am still bound to an oath to the Dutch Royal family, this oath stays in place until the day I die. As such I have no issues (and never had any) regarding the execution of a traitor. And there is a part I left out, you see, the Traitor Manning did something far worse, I saw it and some others saw it, but the bulk missed it, and that is good, because it links to all this.

Yet in the corporate stage this is a lot more grey, there is no white which is merely less dark grey and black which is merely less light grey and at that point the story could go in all kinds of directions. The good part is that the foundation written by Graham Greene is top notch and that quality of material should not be left to waste. 

Part 2
This is not directly related. I was watching  remake of the Creedence Clearwater Revival hit ‘Have You Ever Seen the Rain’. In it I saw Jack Quaid (the dude from the Boys) and his love interest Erin Moriarty, so I looked up what I could in case the hit was connected to season 3 somehow (it is not). I also learned that his dad was the Astronaut wannabe Dennis Quaid from the movie InnerSpace. You know the movie where he tries to get to the girlfriend of Martin Short (Meg Ryan). OK, I took some creative liberties here, but lets be honest, Jack could have been the son from that pilot from Independence day named Randy Quaid. But he is not and these elements all play because I suddenly remembered another gem by daddy Quaid. It was D.O.A. I never saw the original so this was what I had and consider that story, same premise but the poisoning is clear and in the beginning, and Jack needs to find out who robbed the IP of a place like Zoogle before the toxins overwhelm him (they all think he did it). As such we see a steeple chase of events where we see more grades of grey and in the end as he dies, we see that it was his lady who switches the ring with a duplicate and walks off towards the competition. Under the ember was a reflective side making a minuscule chip invisible and the chip fits into a holder showing billions in IP, and the two movies are connected by a hand with one small element (like a pearl bracelet) which we do not see until the final moment in movie two. Two good movies that become great as each population will entice each other to see the other movie. So each movie is no longer seen a X and Y but as 2*(X+Y), a nice little bonus is it not?

And it seems like the players in stream land are not seeing that, they are not seeing the benefit of remaking a good movie (regardless of revenue) and remastering it to the setting we see today, the corporations are all in their own right governments and we all seem to dance around that. Oh and there is a reason for the prune story, but that is something you will have to work out, life is just not rewarding without a decent challenge.

It bears thinking, does it not?

Leave a comment

Filed under IT, Media, Military, movies, Stories

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , ,

February 1, 2022 · 00:12

Vein tapping

Yes, I do that at times. It is not a junkie term, it is a data term and it comes from mining. Tapping the vein is to see if anything is up yet. With my 5G IP in place there is still a setting that I can tap and like many other people I would like to tap that vein, especially as retirement is approaching. So as I was watching and seeking certain top line sources I stumbled upon “wireless internet will be faster and more abundant, even in rural locations. This means that digital ads could appear in more areas, providing a seamless and consistent branded experience for your customers. The visuals and media in each ad could also be improved, advancing due to high network speeds”, it is the mot iterative version of delusional. It is not a lie all what you see is true, but it is for the people who look towards yesterday. Those who look to tomorrow will see a massive shift in the approach towards marketing, as I personally see it, the mass approach is close to over, it will last, but those who look towards tomorrow see that marketing will b a very different beast, it aligns to the one, it aligns to retail and to the shopper. In the 90’s SPSS brought a program called AnswerTree. It was a good and direct idea to marketing. You see, if we are to approach 4% of the people we need to market to over 15%, that was the old way and the people at SPSS already saw that to market to more, you either spend a linear amount more, or you market more efficient. The second one was ALWAYS better, the researcher pruned their marketing tree and a smaller bonsai version of marketable people remained. This has served a lot for close to 20 years, but that time is gone now. You see, you can use that approach and seek the largest clusters, yet over all smaller clusters are lost and why? Tomorrow will be about location and that is a different kettle of fish, at least two of my IP address that and the stage is rapidly getting larger, and the largest station hit me with some surprise. It seems that Google is not on that page yet, or if they are they are playing that card very very close to the chest. 

It is my believe that they are not completely on that page and for me that is a great feeling. It should be for Amazon too, they have a few lines out and I doubt Microsoft has a clue. You see Amazon marketing and advertising is set to Amazon and that is a fine run, yet I believe that they can reach more, as can Google. If they change the dimension of WHERE they are, they could approach the location of where everyone WANTS to be and that is all about tomorrow. Google and Amazon have the inside track and that is illuminating for a few reasons. You see, for 20 years it was all Google and now another is getting close on the next setting, neither are there yet but they could be. For me (and my IP) it is good news, because when they launch, I could release my IP and suddenly see 6-8 clusters there and it matters because it makes my IP a lot more valuable. 

Amazon will give you “Ad solutions to help you reach and engage millions of Amazon customers at every stage of their journey” and that sounds nice in the industry of today, but that is about to change and that system will not accomodate, not in time at least. Google has its system and has a few more options, but not the one they both need and that makes me happy (actually very very happy). So as I see the designs and failings (like Bing) I see a set of players all going in a similar direction, whilst they are all looking in the wrong direction. You see, the definition given earlier is good, but we should realise “wireless internet will be faster and more abundant, even in rural locations, offering a much larger pool to scammer and spammers”, and until the funnel is inverted that problems remains, and will remain to a limited degree after that and the stage is set to shopkeepers, that change will the stage completely and I am already ready with that IP. So when Neom in Saudi Arabia launches, certain players will suddenly realise what they missed and that is when my solution starts gaining traction and value fast, just as I hoped. The question is will it be in 2023 or will I have to wait until 2024 to make it all public domain. Such exciting times coming my way. Yummy!

Leave a comment

Filed under IT, Media, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , ,

November 25, 2021 · 21:25

Height of the threshold

We all have thresholds, one allows for choices, one bars choices, one allows, one denies. You can go on with that premise for a long time to come, it is how we roll. I saw (on YouTube) some of the NHL22 video’s. I also saw a few complain video’s and a few other videos. I understand the complaints, they do not bother me (I am no NHL player, alas), but I get that some of the issues are there and they will not be resolved any day soon. 

I gave my largest attention to the PS5 version of NHL22. Now I need to be clear. I am not certain if this was a final release version, or a beta. What one states is not always the case. But the thought came to mind as I was considering a few items.

Pro
The look and feel is awesome, presentation has taken a large foundation and it looks good. The previous version I has was NHL19, so over three years there is bound to be some improvements. And as we see the way things present, it looks good.

Con
I saw a whole heap of glitches. Now, I might have missed them if I was playing, but compared to NHL19, the glitches are a lot more profound and ugly I might add. The unnatural skate movements that players make, the way the fallen player gets up and the unnatural skating done at that point. It was riddled with glitches and that is why I wonder whether this was a final version. The look of the players is really good, the rink looks good and the names are nice, but no everyone will like them. I cannot vouch for controls as I was watching and not playing. 

I saw more video and more complaints about puck dynamics and puck response, I also saw a few more glitches and a few that are not really glitches, but it did not add up. This can be my view on the matter and I prefer to say that upfront. The game on the PS5 did look decently amazing. So it did not quite blow me away, but it did impact. And I have not seen all the modes, so there might be more good news that I missed out on.

Threshold?
For me there was a threshold. You see my team (Capitals) won the Stanley cup. So I was eager to get the new edition with Ovechkin on the cover, but EA Sports decided that for Australians, it was digital only (bloody bastards). I am not paying $89 for a digital product and I am not interested in some digital subscription. As such, a threshold of frustration was reached. 

What will happen to NHL22? Well, apart from budgets in play. There is still the issue of a physical copy. I get it, NHL is not on the Australian mind, it might have something to do with water not turning solid in almost all of Australia, so I get it. But the fact that it cannot be ordered, that it is digital copy only is a problem (for me). This is how it is, plain and simple. 

It also related to another setting. As I was brooding over two pieces of IP, a third option came forward. Now, it is too early to comment on it, because there are a few sides that need ironing out, especially on the privacy side of the matter. Yet an idea is starting to take shape and depending how it irons out, I will put it online too (too busy with other options at present). 

It is how we see the digital world that matters. Or perhaps not see it, experience and feel it at present. I have been brooding on making domotics and wearables a larger stage, but that too is fraught with obstacles. We want to have it all, we want to offer it all, but how long until a third party exploits it? As the law fails its citizens, I feel that the threshold of publication rises and raises a lot more questions than I am happy with at present. Can we in all honesty fight for revenue in domotics when it endangers the privacy and safety of people? I feel that it is wrong to push for one setting whilst ignoring another side of that very same coin. As such we see thresholds. 

You see, to get back to the beginning I need to push towards a program called SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). They had a procedure called PLANCARDS. The simplest stage is “PLANCARDS produces profiles, or cards, from a plan file for a conjoint analysis study”, this is all fine. But the problem is that today that data is used in very different ways, often in ways that the ‘targets’ were never made aware of. An optional context could be “By using a fractional factorial design such as this it was possible to get the information for each of the sixteen sport event product profiles displayed”, now we need to see this as a clever way to get insight, but it can nowadays be warped. You see, the setting of Fractional Factorial design is seen as “A fractional factorial design allows for a more efficient use of resources as it reduces the sample size of a test, but it comes with a tradeoff in information”, the problem here is that ‘efficient use of resources’ still relates to the 80’s-90’s setting of computer resources. These computations would take hours. Now it becomes a very different field, but the people using that often forget the part ‘a tradeoff in information’, or even more accurately stated ‘a tradeoff in lack of data’ one glove washes the other would be cruel and unjustified, but that setting is actually the one that matters. You see people with a less clear intent towards your good choice, they will be all about exclusion, not inclusion which was the initial PLANCARDS setup. The intentional creation of thresholds. Almost what Microsoft did by buying Bethesda. That amount was the hope that their failed console would be bought by Sony players who were missing out of the next Elder Scrolls and the next Fallout. It is a brilliant strategy, but I decided to make a new RPG, an optional new way of playing RPG’s online and make it public domain for Sony and Amazon Luna. The reality is that this approach does not really stop Microsoft from using this, but the visibility that they paid for Bethesda whilst the new game has many parts that were online and free would be a decent reason for firing the board of directors of Microsoft. Yet that is not the point, the point is that any iteration or innovation towards inclusion can also be used to do the opposite and push for exclusion, a side we all (including me) seem to forget until it is too late. It is for that same reason that I published a way to sink the Iranian fleet, whilst not putting online the solution to melt down their reactor. Not because it shouldn’t be done, but because I figured out that the ramification are a lot larger than I initially considered (I was happy that I did in time). 

We can look at what exclusion does and what inclusion does and see how our solution impacts all. And I for one failed that considerations a few times in the past. We all do because it is in our nature. It is (as programmers state) the dangerous setting that THROUGH and THROUGH TO tend to have a little different impact, but do that a few times and you end up losing an entire population cluster. We all faced that and when we do we go ‘Oh bollocks!’ We can redo the setting, or if we were stupid we get to redo it all, it is not that you make a mistake, it is the impact of forgetting about rolling back data, that is when you end up getting royally stuffed. 

Thresholds are a way how we keep issues we care about in check and they are personal thresholds, yet in domotics it is not merely about your house, it will be (for the wrong kind of people) to learn where YOUR thresholds are, we all have them and for the revenue greedy people it will be about finding the exclusion threshold, because that is when they can offer THEIR package and you will vacate your old provider. As I see it large players have seen them and they are looking at the setting where they are most likely to entice you and that is in part on what makes you dump your current solution and select THEIR solution. In this domotics and wearables will change the game as the larger true 5G network rolls out on the global plain and its solutions are accepted by most of the people looking at more ease, more comfort and less hassle. Yet there is the danger, like the tradeoff we saw in one part, here the tradeoff is less hassle means more outspoken data of what you want. Did you consider that?

Leave a comment

Filed under Gaming, IT, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , ,