Tag Archives: China

November 11, 2024 · 18:19

The unspoken truth

That is a setting we relish and fear. There is no escaping it. When some people relish the setting of total freedom, they also fear how some people might abuse that same level of freedom. We applaud the freedom of speech, but we also fear the people that abuse it, like ‘Just Stop Oil’ for example. There was an advertisement the other day. The setting was an art exhibit and two “oilers” step up to defile a work of art. Then we see a middle aged man walk up to them and shoot them in the head, a simple execution. And for a lot of them (including me) there was a sense of calm, a satisfying feeling. These abusers of ‘freedom’ were dealt with. The future innocent art was saved. The art defilers were dealt with. That is the consequence of ‘freedom of speech’, you need to be held accountable. It refers to the very beginning of my blog. On June 19th 2012 I wrote ‘The accountability act – 2015’ in this I wrote “Why 2015? Well an act like this does not grow out of a goose feather and ink jar over night. If we think of a law that could make a real change, and would be a real stop to some of the acts of greed, then it will take time and a lot of effort too.” I gave the powers that could be 3 years to get their act together. As far as I know they never did. And this reverts to a new case, an act that happened that happened on 7 October 2023. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4vw1l8xvdo) gave us ‘Gaza’s top Islamic scholar issues fatwa criticising 7 October attack’ where we see “Professor Dr Salman al-Dayah, a former dean of the Faculty of Sharia and Law at the Hamas-affiliated Islamic University of Gaza, is one of the region’s most respected religious authorities, so his legal opinion carries significant weight among Gaza’s two million population, which is predominantly Sunni Muslim.” 

The world no matter how it is tweaked by the greed driven need for digital dollars, has had enough of the media at large. There is a (seemingly) staged setting that the world of Sunni Islam is seeing the fallout the world is having. It is happening in nearly all countries in the world. Shia Islam has embraced Terrorism in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Gaza (Hamas) and Yemen (Houthi) and the world is basically fed up with this path. Now we see the BBC story and there is a chance that Sunni Islam is isolating Shia Islam and this stage could be used to isolate and invalidate Iran. So as we are given “A fatwa is a non-binding Islamic legal ruling from a respected religious scholar usually based on the Quran or the Sunnah – the sayings and practices of the Prophet Muhammad. Dr Dayah’s fatwa, which was published in a detailed six-page document, criticises Hamas for what he calls “violating Islamic principles governing jihad”.” There is a chance that the Gazan population have had enough of Hamas to the larger degree and this paper might push them to the curve of decisions. Lets see the impact On October 10th we were given “An estimated 75,000 tonnes of explosives have been dropped on Gaza with experts predicting it could take years to clear the debris amounting to more than 42 million tonnes, which is also rife with unexploded bombs. Gaza’s Media Office estimates direct damage caused by Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip at $33bn.” Now as I personally see it, the Gaza Media Office is not impartial and their data is debatable. But we also get from Unitar on September 30th we were given “Those 66% of damaged buildings in the Gaza Strip account for 163,778 structures in total. This includes 52,564 structures that have been destroyed, 18,913 severely damaged, 35,591 possibly damaged structures and 56,710 moderately affected.” I feel that this needs to be scrutinised to a much larger degree. The media uses it for digital dollars, they are willing to obfuscate the data as much as they can, but clarity could resolve a lot of issues and Dr Dayah’s fatwa could be a first step to do just that. For the people in Gaza it is imperative that they get clarity. Hamas will not give that. How many people were living in these 163,788 buildings? And this Fatwa was the one thing Iran did not count on. The Iranians are in a bind. They opened the door for Israel to attack them directly, attack their oil reserves. The oil reserves enable the terrorist acts of Iran and when these are gone Iran is in a stale mate with no option but to handover all they thought they gained. The first being the isolation of three terrorist organisation. It will isolate Iran to the largest of degrees and with that gone so do their ‘allies’ China, India and Russia. Russia might hold on as they have other needs, but without oil India and China are pretty much out. It is my personal view on the matter, however this could start a new wave. One that invalidates Iran and give the stability and powers for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to create a new foundation of stability. And lets be clear (and optionally honest) do you really want Iran, the country that embraced terrorism for decades to the largest degree at that table?

This is the setting we are pushed into and lets all hope that it works out for the best. Have a great Monday.

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November 8, 2024 · 21:00

All the way from Ottawa

Yup, that was the question mark that I had. I saw it at the CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/guilbeault-china-saudi-arabia-climate-1.7376007) where we get ‘China, Saudi Arabia should pay up to help the planet cope with climate change: Guilbeault’ OK, I like my sarcasm with plenty of Maple Syrup (a personal choice). A wholesome breakfast as it says. We are given “Guilbeault wants emerging economies to contribute to a new climate goal”. This sounds nice on paper, but it doesn’t hold the pastrami. I feel uneasy as the idea sounds nice, but it seems to have all kinds of unforeseen complications. And as we consider “Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said Wednesday he wants China and Saudi Arabia to contribute money to international efforts to help poorer countries struggling with the worst effects of climate change.” You know, America and Europe take its own share of decades of looting in wealth the established setting of the commodity of oil. Oh, and why give OPEC and China that bill? Where is Am Erica for that bill? I am pretty sure that some president of the US give Steven Guilbeault the finger the moment he states that out loud. There is a larger setting. You see, we could decrease the allowed oil for any nation by 10%, then there is my favourite, decrease global flights by 15% (taken in account that there are way too many flights happening). You see, the last 15 years we have seen a million flights per year more. I did a calculation once (in 2021) where I stated “That amounts to 41,000 flights a day, every single day.” I did this on November 13th 2021 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/11/13/a-cop26-truth/) in ‘A COP26 truth’ As I see it, this will have a better result. But Steven Guilbeault does not want that. He merely want to point the finger at China (to get the blessing of some president), he’ll also point the finger at Saudi Arabia which will not go anywhere. As I personally see it, this is a limelight piece. Get the shiny lights thrust upon him whilst the solution goes nowhere, and those poor poor emerging economies? Ad when we consider ““China will become, in fact, one of the biggest historic polluters in the coming years,” Guilbeault said.” What data does he have? In the coming years is speculation, as I see it, Russia will have to become a much larger polluter to get any fingers over the edge of disaster at present. There is no real data to consider that China will be anything like that. I wonder where he got the data, as the ‘data’ in march gave us all “India was declared as the third-most polluted country in 2023, after Bangladesh and Pakistan, according to a report released by Swiss air quality monitoring body, IQAir.” Which is interesting as they have a significant loss of longevity They went from eight position in 2022 to third position in 2023. Of that list of 50 cities 42 are in India. As such I call his bluff and wish him a nice day with what he has. Yes something needs to be done, pretty much everyone agrees with that. What it is, remains the question. Giving the Ace of Spades to China and Saudi Arabia is folly as I see it. The issue with any fire is to take away the air for a fire to breath, take away the fuel that propels the fire or put out the fire (the third is the lamest idea). As such you can limit oil to everyone, which will drive the price up, or take away the air for oil to burn (extremely hazardous to people). As such we are in a bind. Making this about emerging economies is just a bad option, or we lessen EVERYONE’S access to oil and the the emerging countries get their 100% and the largest economies get that limit decrease as well. I wonder how long it will take for everyone to ‘diminish’ the emerging economies. You see Steven Guilbeault blasted his statement to ‘merely’ include China and Saudi Arabia. In 2021 the United States used 20.4% of the petroleum-consuming countries it was number one with 5% more then number 2 (China), as such why didn’t Steven Guilbeault mention America? Oh, and Saudi Arabia isn’t even in that top 5. India (4.8%), Russia (3.8%) and Japan (3.5%) had those positions. As such it makes kinda sense to hand the spade to China, but not before America gets the spade as well. They both Amount to 36.1% of the petroleum-consuming countries. As such, when you consider these numbers. Is he anything more than a windy politician (like the ones from Chicago)?

It’s not all seemingly bad news. We are also given “According to one estimate, $2.4 trillion US in climate finance is needed by 2030 for investments to meet the Paris Agreement targets and related development goals.” Yes, that works with any nation with a gross federal debt surpassing $35,000,000,000,000. That really seemingly works and don’t blame President-elect Trump for that, Harris wouldn’t have been able to do that either. This is the result of sitting on your hands and too many presidents have done that going all the way back to President Clinton, which was 21 years ago. The easiest option is that we allow climate change to kill 27.8% of the population, making the decrease of 49,000 flights a day and 24.1% less oil used a manageable achievement. You see, the solution is very simple if you see the problem as simple as an arithmetic problem. Take away the people using oil and you get the same result. Oh, as a bonus consider that less food is required at that point. All simple solutions towards a conundrum that people aren’t willing to see as a real problem. Did I oversimplify the problem for you?

Have a lovely day and consider how much oil you used this week. 

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November 6, 2024 · 00:24

iRan is not an Apple product

There is a larger setting in the world (predominantly the middle east). We are given by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3yqzx72zno) ‘Iran’s supreme leader says enemies will receive ‘crushing response’’. I left it to the left at first (three days ago) for the reason that the entire Iran debacle is like hauling water to the sea. Where the text starts with “The US and Israel “will definitely receive a crushing response”, Iran’s supreme leader has said, following an Israeli attack on Iran a week ago.” It sounds nice, but Iran is limited to deliver attacks through terrorist fractions. It is too scared to attack directly. In the beginning it was about deniability, but that is gone now and Iran is on the verge of be labelled “a terrorist nation” by pretty much all nations. And it is scared of that as such it is trying to kiss up to Antonio Guterres. Yet Israel decided on October 13th “Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz reinforced on Sunday his decision to declare U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres persona non grata over what he described as a failure to condemn Iran’s missile attack and antisemitic and anti-Israel conduct.” There are other nations thinking that Guterres has outlived its usefulness as a UN tool (I speculate that Ukraine is one of them). So when we see the BBC give us “The threat comes as Iran assesses whether and how to respond to Israel’s attack last month, that Iran said killed four soldiers, which was in retaliation for an Iranian missile attack against Israel earlier in October.” There is only so much Iran can get away with and whilst the US is begging to leave the oil fields alone (they get a slice of that revenue I reckon). Iran is now losing whatever options they had. As I see it Robert F. Worth said it best “‘The Iranian Period Is Finished’. Hezbollah’s losses have led some in Lebanon to imagine a future without it.” You see Hamas might seen shelter behind civilian bodies there, but Hezbollah is merely a small part of the 5.5 million population and Israel has had enough. 

Now that U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has been called a persona non grata, the options for the UN will diminish a lot more and Hezbollah has none left. Their only option is for Iran to engage in a full scale war and Iran is hesitant to do so. With the attacks on Saudi Arabia (via Houthi proxy) they only stand the smallest of chances if other Arabian nations support them and those nations are not willing to do that (as I personally see it). And the issue continues (and worsens). The BBC also reported “Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” is an alliance of Tehran-backed groups that include Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and well-armed groups in Iraq and Syria. Most have been designated as terrorist entities by some Western states.” Let me be clear, they merely voiced the words of Iran and there is the problem. Do you think that the BBC would have given Germany the ‘respect’ by calling it the third kingdom? (1933 – 1945) And the larger option becomes that ‘their’ axis of resistance is in shambles. The Hamas terrorists are hiding behind the population they claim to protect. Hezbollah terrorists are relying on exploding pagers and the rest of Hezbollah has no clue what to do and Houthi terrorists are in a dangerous position. Lloyds reported yesterday “Houthis’ reported to be earning an estimated $180m a month from illegal safe-transit fees paid by unnamed shipping agents to secure safe passage through the Red Sea” as well as a report from ynet news that ‘Houthis turn to social media to raise funds for war’, this tells me that they are now cash strapped and here the UN is close to useless. They might talk a nice talk but it seems to be finally falling on deaf ears. In the meantime a report a mere 15 hours ago gives us that Houthi forces are trying to align themselves with Al-Qaeda forces. This happened whilst one source gives us “the two terrorist groups agreed to put aside their differences and focus on weakening the Yemeni government” the beginning of all kinds of escalations. And that is the setting for Iran, or as the American voices state “Become Al-Qaeda’s bitch or fall alone”, I cannot vouch for that, but Iran depended on deniability and now that this is gone Iran faces the reality of going to war. So how long until that goes wrong? In all these settings the United Nations might be out of options as well (until a new CEO is elected). You see on October 24th we got to hear “UN Secretary-General António Guterres reiterated in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that his country’s on-going invasion of Ukraine violates the United Nations Charter and international law.” ‘Reiterated’? This has been going on for 10 years and now we see ‘reiterated’? I reckon that the insertion of North Korean troops is making this a larger stage. Basically it is now a world war. You see, there is no real definition, one that aligns with todays setting of “In order to qualify as a world war, at least one of three criteria must be met: the conflict takes place between multiple nations across the globe, battles are fought in many different locations, and the war must be fought against great powers with significantly advanced technology.” It now involves Russia, Ukraine and North Korea. At this point I believe that the setting of a World War is reached. You see one criteria was met and this reflects back unto Iran too. Because in this setting, Iran might be getting cozy with Russia, but Russia has its own brand of troubles and that is setting the grind in another direction. As such Iran loses whatever friends they thought they had. As such we are given “Saudi Arabia, Jordan and United Arab Emirates unite against Iran, with support from the United States.” A statement that is presumptuous, but lacks clear evidence (as I see it). It is likely to be true, but I have not seen that evidence. And in this setting Iran has two options, the first is to engage is all out war, the other is to drop the terrorist organisations Hezbollah and Houthi, leaving them to fend for themselves. 

I could be wrong but this is as I see it the political chessboard where we have three players. I would personally see a different stage where the board is used with the chess pieces of Chinese chess. It would be a decent challenge to get any player to actually win whilst the other two are hacking on the pieces and that applies to all sides in this equation. If we get a ‘dopey to dollars’ equation I reckon that Israel has a lead because Iran is about to lose two thirds of its ‘axis’ and that results in less pieces to move around and more exposure of its own pieces. And the number one weakness for Iran is that they cannot move their oil fields or oil infrastructure. That is the bottleneck for Iran, and they have less and less options for securing that financial option.

As I personally see it Iran is about to become ‘I ran’ and they now have no place to run to.  

Have a great day.

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October 23, 2024 · 06:14

The tightening belt

What I foresaw is now coming to pass in more than one way. ECNS China gives us ‘Saudi Arabia aims to attract up to 5 million Chinese tourists by 2030’ there was always a shift coming and as we see it, Saudi Arabia becomes more and more driven to see what the Chinese markets can deliver. We saw this last week in the Saudi Tourism Festival held in Beijing on Oct 17, 2024. We are given “Saudi Minister of Tourism and Chairman of the Saudi Tourism Authority Ahmed Al-Khateeb said that Saudi Arabia is China-ready and welcomes all Chinese travellers with increased connectivity, customised products and strategic partnerships.” Now some of you will respond with ‘so what?’ And that might be fair in one way. But this number represents a much larger issue. As I see it, one third is goal driven tourism. People will decide on Saudi Arabia as a destination for a job, or as a cheap tourism destination. Two third will go as tourist with optional goals, but these three million tourists will go to Saudi Arabia and not to their ‘normal’ destinations. That will show in diminished numbers all over Europe (France, England, Spain and Italy) and America. These people will also attract optional tourists who will change their initial destination. The other 2 million will optionally retrench their optional ‘cheap labor’ destination from Australia and places like the Netherlands, Belgium and the nordic countries. You will think that it does not matter, but consider all these coffee places that ‘allowed’ for these people, optionally in other areas too. They will come short of their usual numbers. These tourists also spend all they earn in that country. As such there will be a shift, an initial shift that seems small but could grow over time. These 5 million will spend their money somewhere else (in Saudi Arabia) and that facilitates to more, it always does. You might not think much of this, but the Saudi job market is booming. There are (allegedly) at present a little over 10,000 jobs outstanding. A fair deal are out reach of a lot of them, but consider this job “Digital Marketing Specialist. Average Salary: SAR 9,500-35,000 per month” and consider that they have the Beijing University of Technology and over a dozen more universities where these young crackers would like to see options in their first 2 years. They have just graduated University, they have spend almost every waking hour working on digital solutions like TikTok, broadcast experience and on the other hand we see places like Huawei making waves in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These two places will see an increase of Chinese workers with an option to fulfil their dream a lot faster, so yes, Saudi Arabia will become a swing location for these people. All options that are shutting doors on Europe, Australia and America. 

We are also given “the country is preparing to launch its winter season tourism attractions, which will provide a range of experiences filled with entertainment, luxury, adventure and natural beauty, running from October to May”
Now consider that Oxagon, Trojena, Magna and Sindalah now suddenly will have a grasp of a thousand more affordable workers, bringing both a digitally active workforce as well as language skills to their regions. Yes, the cheaper groups will also infuse the wealth group from China to their shores because these people will encounter others with their language skills. As such the people who depend on these rich tourists will endure a lessened impact as they will all want to go to the newest places in Saudi Arabia. I reckon that in the 5,000,000 people will be at least 500,000 people who are beyond well-off and they will go to Saudi Arabia in the space of 2026-2028 (at least) and that is a kick to the heads of economy in the aforementioned countries. The top 1% of wealthy Chinese who are making over $80,000 are expected to spend that money in Saudi Arabia. And I am referring to the people who would have spend their cash in London, Paris and Orlando. Merely these three places will see a drop of income in the next few years. So how much more is needed? You might think that the small setting of “France is the most visited country within Europe, attracting an impressive 81,411,000 foreign sightseers each year”, but that would not be entirely correct. It includes all nations, including Europeans and a bunch of them will be attracted to Saudi luxury as well and consider that 1% is still 814,110, even if they merely lose 1%, that amounts to quite the drain on revenue and that is in part already heading towards Saudi Arabia. Already we are seeing messages on Free tourist visas, the one element that partially blocks choices is in the process of being removed. And all this is piling up against Europe and America. All whilst we were given ‘Tourism trips by residents of EU in 2023 up close to 6% y/y’ we ignore the drop that a mere 1% drop wouldn’t be much, but these tourists have beckoned billions in investments all over Europe and now I expect to see the Chinese drop as well as the ‘local’ tourists now dialling Saudi Arabia for their upcoming destination. Add to that whatever business bookings we see and you know these sales types, how they like to be known to go to new and luxurious destinations, the punch packing trips all over Saudi Arabia will be handing several body blows to Europe (America as well). We might merely see that the effort is on 5,000,000 Chinese tourists. But the overall impact will be a lot higher. That is the one part that everyone forgets about. The overly large population of tourists can only spend their money once or perhaps twice a year and the appeal of Saudi Arabia is overwhelming with at least three locations appealing to a lot of tourists. Add to this Riyadh and the impact of Saudi tourism will be felt in most of the tourist places of Europe and America. I reckon that if Disney and Universal sets a theme park in these places the damage will be near complete. Not a mere 2-3 years. But an impact over the next decade at least. Whatever we think of these parks in Orlando, they are overpacked and soon there will be an alternative of the same making. We see (at present) “With over 58 million annual tourist visits, Disney World averages approximately 159,000 visitors per day across all its parks” as well as “In 2023, 10 million tourists visited Islands of Adventure, a decrease of 9%” and consider that these two places could lose close to 15% more, people that have had enough of these massive queues and they want an alternative. Well Warner Brothers is already seeing an increasing populous enjoying Abu Dhabi and I reckon that these are all people contemplating Saudi Arabia as an optional destination.

Tourist destinations in Europe and America will see the need to tighten their belts. And this is not new. I floated the idea on September 27th 2023 in ‘As the belt tightens’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/09/27/as-the-belt-tightens/) so this is not news to me. I saw it coming a mile away (well, actually a year ago), and that is all before the glamour of Vision 2030 hits the tourists on the retina. I think I made my case 2 times over and the impact should be seen all over Europe in the time 2026-2028, after that? That depends how Saudi Arabia plays it cards. I made one other prediction (presumption) on what would be needed and that could put Europe and America in a bind, they either invest and make ready for 2025 or they might lose a lot more.

Have a great day and contemplate the view from the Aedas ski resort. Can America match that view? Now consider that Saudi Arabia could simultaneous hit 5-10 tourist attractions at the same time in 2026.

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October 21, 2024 · 11:34

What is the real deal?

That is the question I have. I am not saying that I have ‘evidence’ but you can judge the information I will hand you now. Early yesterday morning I stumbled upon ‘Saudi Arabia ‘comfortable’ venue for talks to end Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin’ where we are given (at https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/saudi-arabia-comfortable-venue-for-talks-to-end-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin/article68773948.ece) “Saudi Arabia will be a ‘comfortable’ venue for talks to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, said Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the BRICS summit on Saturday (October 19, 2024).” With the ‘supporting’ text ““I repeat once again: we are ready to return. We didn’t interrupt the negotiations. I want to remind you: it was the Ukrainian side that said that it would not continue negotiations with Russia. First. Second. A decree of the President of Ukraine has been issued prohibiting negotiations with us,” said President Putin accusing Ukraine of preventing a solution from emerging.” To be honest, I do not put much faith in the words of Vladimir Putin, as I see it, he is nothing more than a mass murderer of Women, children, aid workers and more. The bombing of the Ukraine might be one of the most disgusting acts against a people since long before the Crusades. An act that makes the acts of Genghis Khan sound like a simple sniffle. 

Then we get the Kyiv Independent (at https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-has-lost-672-850-troops-since-feb-24-2022/) handing us ‘General Staff: Russia has lost 672,850 troops since Feb. 24, 2022’, we knew that the Russians were losing a lot of people and we see this below

Apart from the 678,520 soldiers who went the way of the dodo, they also lost 26987 vehicles, 9047 tanks, 369 aircrafts, 329 helicopters, 17,050 drones and a submarine and a few other items. Beside this Russia seems to be toting North Korean hardware and troops. The once mighty Russia is now relying on North Korean troops and weapons. As I personally see it Russia is on the threshold of defeat. The once mighty country that had the west shaking in its boots is now relying on a nation Russia once looked down on is sending troops and hardware. Yes, President Putin is looking for a comfortable place to talk about any solution that sees Russia in an alternative route towards non-defeat. The latter part is not really an option, but he might want to keep the hope up. I personally see that there is another side. China sees the war as a hindrance and they like Saudi Arabia as a winner in any political solution at present. But that is merely my view on the matter. 

Russia needs a scapegoat in all matters and as President Putin made sure all his adversaries have  committed suicide out of windows. He is now left massively out of options and the Saudi setting is now his (presumably) only way out. At this point he might get away with a working military in about a decade as it will take time to replenish 9000 tanks, 369 aircrafts, 329 helicopters and a submarine, preferably in a 21st century setting. As such the Russian steel mills will need to be repurposed and it can afford nothing more until at least 2030. And that is all presuming that Russia wants a working solution at this point, it will cost them dearly as well as the Russian ‘blemish’ that they lost to a global army in 20th position, that is the defeat and larger political loss they face. With the setting in Saudi Arabia he could possibly avert an expulsion from BRICS. At present China and India are considering the gains they make on the global stage if Russia becomes isolated. China gains defence contracts all over the world, India will get several boons all over the commercial field and that is the premise that Russia is now looking at. 

As such the Saudi premise works for Russia, but only if they play nice. Any act that is seen negatively by the Ukraine will be taken harshly and if the Ukraine walks out of these talks Russia’s goose will be cooked, peppered and marinated. As such I have the question. What is the real deal here? I have faith that Saudi Arabia sees this as an opportunity, as does China. But in this instance it depends on what game President Putin will be playing. Not only does he know that he is with his back to the wall, will he embrace the small options of a massively greater loss is heading his way? I cannot tell, because that requires an insight of a mass murdering mind I do not have.

Have a great day wherever you are.

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October 19, 2024 · 17:26

Kettle, pot and colouring

Yup, that is the setting for today. I saw the news yesterday or the day before and it angered me. The article (at https://cpj.org/2024/10/saudi-arabia-sentences-cartoonist-mohammed-al-ghamdi-to-23-years/) from the CPJ (committee to protect journalists) is as misguided as it is hypocritical. In the first instance I do not know Mohammed al-Ghamdi, I never saw his cartoons or red anything from him. As far as I am concerned as long as the CPJ does not hold its western journalists and editors up to any kind of standard, it needs to shut up. Yesterday I touched on the Politico article regarding Prince Khalid bin Bandar al Saud and it opened up some issues for me. There is more, the media neglects the interesting ‘good’ Saudi Arabia does and trivialises the harm that Saudi Arabia gets from Houthi terrorists. As such I say that the CPJ needs to shut up.

We are given that “a Saudi cartoonist for the Qatar-based Lusail newspaper, who was sentenced on an undisclosed date in 2024 to 23 years in prison on charges that his cartoons were sympathetic to Qatar and insulted the Saudi government” Saudi Arabia has laws, they might not be the laws the west heralds, but this is a Saudi event. I might not agree, but if I am in Saudi Arabia I would have to adhere to Saudi Laws and there is the chance that my articles fall in bad waters with Saudi Arabia. I do not know as I am not privy to those laws. As far as I know I never known and intentionally insulted anyone in the Saudi government (I might be wrong in this).

Countries have laws, the west (Commonwealth and Europe) for the most on the issue of freedom of speech and as such I tend to use that freedom of speech, yet in that instance I try to maintain a civil tongue. And when Charlie Hedbo was killed, I also supported France, I stood at a vigil in Sydney. I was not aware to the stage that drove someone to kill Charlie Hedbo, but I was in agreement that we had to protest this because Charlie Hedbo was not anti-Muslim. He drew on several occasions images that would have offended the church (the Vatican), as such he was equally ‘diplomatic’ on all faiths. 

Yet this is not about Charlie Hedbo, this is about the double standard the CPJ uses and until they hold western media to a serious level of account, they need to put up or shut up. 

This is pretty much it. I did not check some of the claims made and I am not saying these claims weren’t true. We get “It is time to break this longstanding pattern of imprisoning journalists. Saudi authorities must release al-Ghamdi and drop all charges against him” and I am not opposing this, but I find it interesting that numbers and reasons for imprisonment aren’t given. It this is about less then 5 journalists, it seems a trivial matter (compared to Turkey and a few other places). And lets not forget these Saudi Laws are all documented and as such these ‘journalists’ (optionally a mere one cartoonist) might have decided to leave the country, was that done? 

The CPJ gives us that 50 Journalists were killed in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory in 2024. So, where is the stink on these 50 journalists? Oh, and why is it “Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory” and why do we not see the segregation between “West Bank and the Gaza Strip” and “Israel”? It was a simple setting, but the CPJ seems to use a simplistic brush for that. And between 2018 and 2024 we see merely one seemingly killed and I raised plenty of articles between 2018 and 2024 shedding doubt on that setting. Another article gives us that 10 people were imprisoned all whilst the 2023 numbers have a top 10 (Saudi Arabia wasn’t there) and the top is China with 44 imprisoned, Russia with 22, Iran with 17, and Turkey with 13 imprisoned. Yet in all of these cases, we see an absence of reasons and there is the issue. The (western) press has in the last 10 years lost pretty much all credibility, as such a reason for imprisonment is required. I have an issue with the CPJ because a population with less credibility than a drug pusher in a school yard has several issues and I do not think the CPJ is in a position to demand any kind of charge drop until the status quo of journalists is re-established with a level of credibility that most of us find acceptable. The chase for digital dollars in the last decade pretty much diminished their right for a ‘protected’ status. 

People might not like my view on the matter, but that is my preview on the matter. Perhaps the CPJ would like to rewrite the article in something more palatable?

Have a great Saturday.

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October 15, 2024 · 17:18

Approximately 929 years ago

Here we are today (somewhere in 2024) considering the setting of a revamped old game. This train of thought all started when I saw all the messages on the Crusades on social media. We can speculate on the fear of Christians becoming second place after a thousand years, we can think it is a collection of Christians trying to address the wokeness of people. There are all kind of reasons. Is this one of them? I cannot tell. But it got me started. You see, a streaming game platform is the solution in the middle east and that comes with perks. Over time there is a much larger field that comes to pass and Google had options, now there is merely Amazon, yet Tencent is also on its way and as I see it Tencent has the larger gain with adding millions of gamers to their fold and that is merely the beginning. I saw several games that could help this transition. And just now I had another game on the sharp of the blade. 

In 1984 Mike Singleton designed a game called the Lords of Midnight. In its time it was decently awesome and we can tweak this idea into something (much) more. 

The ‘old’ muslim lands reached from the western side of Africa until the borders of Turkey (then named the Byzantium lands). We can resize the game set the markers to a near real 3D setting and change the premise to make it more time based. As such you have a certain amount of time (based on where you are and unite the tribes to set the premise of an assault on any Crusader taken place.

There was (not in chronicle order)

Battle of Aintab, August of 1150
Battle of al-Babein, March 18th, 1167
Battle of Adramyttium, March 19th, 1205
Battle of Agridi, June 15th, 1232
Battle of al-Buqaia, 1163
Battle of Al-Sannabra, June 28th, 1113
Massacre of Ayyadieh, August 20th, 1191
Battle of Azaz, June 11th, 1125
Battle of Ba’rin, 1137
Ambush at Jacob’s Ford, June of 1157
Siege of Jacob’s Ford, August 23rd, 1179
Siege of Arsuf, March and April of 1265
Capture of Haifa, 1265
Battle of Harim, August 12th, 1164
Battle of Harran, May 7th, 1104
Battle of Lake Huleh, June of 1157
Battle of Al-Uqab, July 16th, 1212
Siege of Mahdia, July through October of 1390
Battle of Makryplagi, 1263
Battle of Muret, September 12th, 1213
Battle of Neopatras, 1273
Battle of Nicopolis, September 25th, 1396
Battle of Pelagonia, September of 1259
Battle of Prinitza, 1263
First Battle of Ramla, September 7th, 1101
Second Battle of Ramla, May 17th, 1102
Third Battle of Ramla, August 27th, 1105
Siege of the Isle of Ruad, 1302-1303
Battle of Shaizar, 1111
Battle of Yibneh, May 29th, 1123

There are a few more, but this is the gist of it. The map should reflect the stages of the battles, as such there are several maps. On the ‘normal’ and the ‘expert’ level there comes a larger premise. If every army can optionally merely used one, or even if there is a second time, the second time that army will likely be smaller. It becomes a much more challenging stage.

The C64 version was limited by technology, now we have a much stronger hardware setting and more is possible, even more in the cloud game setting.

Then there is the stage of finding all the flags and shields of the muslim players is another part of the game, not all the towns and tribes had them (as I suspect) and as such the army will lack strength. There are several ways we can add more elements to this game and it could invigorate the pull to Islamic players. There are hundred of millions of optional islamic gamers and the west ignored them and now there are new players and they want an interesting game and the past can be interesting. In less than an hour I saw a collection of upgrades that could be added to a game and as such we can see another element showing us all how some are asleep at the wheel and I just placed another piece of possible gaming into the public domain. Microsoft eat your heart out.

Oh, and to make matters worse. I just came up with two other games that could be intertwined with this game making for a much stronger experience. Whatever will I think of next.

Vancouver will join us in this day in 45 minutes, the rest have a great Tuesday.

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October 13, 2024 · 18:01

What is real?

That is at times the question. There was an image on LinkedIn (see below) and I had taken notice of it. Yet today on LinkedIn we were given a rather large recruiting drive which seems odd, but it doesn’t need to be. The line “Amazon plans to cut 14,000 manager positions by 2025” directly opposes the recruitment drive on which 150 people applied for (as a presented fact).

We see all the big boys dumping staff around 120,000 of them and the others are planning to dump a significant amount of people (numbers unknown). One of them I know ‘personally’, it is the Swedish telecom company Telia. We were given a month ago “Swedish carrier Telia is set to cut 3,000 jobs this year as part of cost reduction measures. The proposed cuts would equate to around 15 percent of its workforce, and deliver annual savings of 2.6 billion Swedish crowns ($253 million), the operator said today (September 4)” the larger issue is not that they are dwindling down staff, a 15% decrease is significant. It is the other side of the coin that I cannot see at the moment. That 15% might be all over the place, but the turnover is that a company with 15% less staff tends to have issues all over the board. Perhaps it works out, perhaps not. But the issue that I see with 3,000 persons saving them 2.6 billion Swedish crowns is a more significant issue. You see that amounts to a personal saving of 866K per person and no one in Sweden makes that much (well almost no one) this means that Telia is downsizing a lot, as such we need to take a look at “As of 2023, the company had a market share of roughly 31.5 percent” This implies (implied does not mean factual) that Telia is downsizing a few more branches and that now leads us to a much larger setting. Another source on this gives us “I envisage that this intended approach will not only result in a Telia that is simpler and faster in decision-making and commercial execution, but also help us to grow our business and generate enough cash so that we can make necessary investments and cover our dividend, as we remain committed to our dividend policy” I feel uneasy on this. Especially the statement “we remain committed to our dividend policy”, now this might (and likely is) merely me, but it could also mean that Sweden is ripe for players like STC (Saudi Telecom Company) and Huawei (Ren Zhengfei) to take up the baton to wave a much larger change in Europe. I expect that Huawei might show links to China Telecom (a speculation, not a fact). You see, as these companies all dwindle down, these staff members (requiring a job) might be a nice niche for these two players. Saudi’s STC is already in Europe “Saudi Telecommunication Company’s subsidiary TAWAL officially began operations in Europe in August of that year. In September 2023, it was announced STC Group had acquired a 9.9% stake in the Madrid-headquartered multinational telecommunications company, Telefónica, S.A..” When you consider this stage, and Sweden is the next target, Finland and Norway are not far away. I saw some data on STC entering Slovenia (might have been Slovakia) and that puts the option of Poland on the table, at that point Saudi Arabia has a clear path from the South of Europe all to the far north. And with that on the road, Huawei will have negated a much larger win, it took them some time but with this in place America is out of the race in Europe. All that bantering of fear mongers (never showing any evidence) and now these players will succumb to a much larger setting. Mind you, I am speculating. I have no evidence of this. And when we consider that IBM and Cisco are also on the list, the internet overhaul could become a lot larger. We say ‘it won’t get this far’ but the stage where they could be replaced by other players There is a Chinese version of Cisco (not sure how that words), but the stage becomes that Huawei and STC would have a clear path taking over servicing the European population of 449 million people in the EU. It is what I would attempt to do and America losing 120,000 people to ‘streamlining’ businesses will not help. So what happens next? Well if this impacts Telecom in Europe, especially a well maintained network, America will lose more and more and now they have no data to look into, that implies that Google, Meta and Microsoft will get less data and that will hinder their actions in the long run as well, especially as the Department of Justice is seeking to slice and dice Google. In that setting Huawei and their Harmony OS NEXT will get a great option and as that vibrates through the Middle East and Asia, Huawei will get the sweetest revenge on America to start. In this setting (as I personally see it) Germany and France will soon count the chickens they have and the eggs coming from this setting. I feel that Germany will turn first, but that might merely be my view on the matter. 

What is a given is that this is merely a setting as I see it (optionally very wrong), but as Saudi Arabia via BRICS makes more inroads into Europe, America will essentially lose these income streams. And that is the beginning of the end for America and its $35,000,000,000,000 debt. There is every consideration that more then 20% loss of revenue implies that America can no longer pay the interest bill. A setting I saw coming a mile away (5 years ago), so I do not see any hindrance to this scenario (which doesn’t make it correct).

And in all this China is seeking ‘revenge’ on the accusations America spouted and Saudi Arabia is aiming to become a technology hub and they are well underway to make that so.

So in this day and age of redundancies, there is a larger group of people almost desperate to find a new gig and there these two players can find all kinds of people ready and willing to give their new employer the best that they had. Will it be so? Time will tell. 

I want to congratulate Vancouver as they join us on this Sunday and the rest on having an equally fine day.

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October 9, 2024 · 23:48

Personal perception

It is always funny to see greed and stupidity in one compact package. In this instance I am introducing you to the American department of Justice. The one that will not prosecute Microsoft, the one that hands their economy to China and the one that throws away whatever economic options they have. Hobbled by ego trippers without a clue, chastised by a failing religion, one nation under the league of flaccid atheists. 

Is that clarity enough? In comes the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62504lv00do) giving us ‘Google threatened with being broken up by US’ where we see “The US government is considering seeking the break-up of the world’s biggest search engine, Google, which it accuses of causing “pernicious harms” to Americans.” Really? The US government is accusing Google of “irreparable harm done through evil or insidious corrupting or undermining”? Who is the idiot making that accusation? Lets have a rundown

It was founded in 1998 by Sergey Brin and Larry Page. They released Google search and they were clever they had the IP properly patented. Two clever dudes designed something that Microsoft never considered. Microsoft who was licking the rear end of the CFO’s of the fortune 500 were outsmarted by two students who gave people a system they needed, they handed system the people needed. So in this daytime and age, who would you rather appeal to? 500 persons who think they know it all, or a few million who are happy to be grateful? One implies money, the other gives you clusters of happy workers. In 2010 they improved the search engine making it twice as fast. At that point they had the cornerstone of modern telecom electronics. And  that is when 4G came out. And Google became the power player it is today. The story is a little more complex but this is the gist of it. The power player who proclaimed to be innovating were surpassed by two students who actually were innovative. Apple took the option of letting the innovators be and offered their technology for a large payout. 

There is more to all this, but the lowdown is that innovators recognise other innovators (YouTube) and they came up with Google Ads and in all that time the so called innovators (Microsoft) couldn’t even get close to what Google designed. They failed to offer a decent search engine (Bing) and they had nothing to offer against Google Ads (Microsoft Advertising) they failed 4 times over. And now we get stakeholders to push for breaking up Google. So let’s see how stupid that is.

In 2019 Huawei created HarmonyOS. In 5 years it created a decently worthy opponent to Android. It is now available in 77 languages. Last year it created HarmonyOS NEXT. It allows several smart devices to talk to one another. We can speculate that Harmony OS NEXT is more than a worthy opponent to Google. It will allow Huawei to hand the people in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East with mobile solutions that will be happily accepted in the houses there. That is what the DoJ is achieving. And this is not the first time they are interfering where they seemingly have little knowledge. And for me it could open another door (yay me). 

All this matters because Huawei Harmony OS NEXT will enable seamless interactions among a wide array of device forms, from earphones and automobile head units to smart TVs and mobile phones. Google does this with the devices they have, but until now they had no real competitor, Microsoft was too soft and not enough micro and beside that they are spread too thin. Now that the DoJ is seemingly planning to break up Google Huawei gets a nice clean playing field to promote their brand outside the USA and with that America loses more and more market share. So whatever deceitful claim America makes They are about to be sliced and diced in the mobile industry by Huawei, TikTok (ByteDance) for video and on the electronic field by Tencent. Three companies that have real innovators and the one innovator that needs the space to continue their work is hobbled by “If the DOJ pushes ahead with the proposed remedies – and they are accepted by the judge in the case – it would represent arguably the biggest regulatory intervention in the history of big tech” which hands a clear victory to Chinese entrepreneurs. How silly they are.

As I see it, they are about to lose seven times over with the losses they have and looking at timeline of the innovators, the stakeholders as I personally see it are handing Chinese companies massive victories and I reckon that those ‘siding’ with America will change sides to the Chinese corporations before the ink dries of whatever bankrupt statement America gives the world and with the 35 trillion dollars they have less then 4 years to avoid that and I have no idea what happens to whatever Wall Street will side with. This is my personal perception of what is about to happen. Many will say that I will be wrong and I could be, but there is too much data siding with me and whilst these stakeholders get politicians to side with the need to line their pockets America keeps on losing more and more. 

In 2022, Saudi Arabia signed $4 billion worth of arms agreements with China, including deals for armed drones, ballistic missiles. In 2024 it has grown to $50 billion. This is partially important as I wrote on the 21st of February 2021 ‘How to miss out on $20,000,000,000’ And I was wrong, I stand corrected. Their revenue grew to $50 billion a mere three years later. I saw it coming a mile away and now it is happening. And the DoJ is making it worse. As I see it Google, Adobe, IBM and Oracle are the last of the real innovators and the DoJ is about to hobble one of these four, it will soon be that bad. 

As such, is my perception wrong? It might be, but my presumption has been a lot more correct than it has been wrong. No matter how you view it the entire Google mess is being mishandled (as I personally see it) pretty much from the beginning. 

And now America gives the option for a much larger win to Huawei Technologies. It will not impact  America, but Google is very likely to lose market share on several fronts. There is a much larger loss if Huawei would include TikTok on every Huawei mobile. Should these mobiles come with HarmonyOS NEXT the damage would increase and with their multi sharable sides Apple revenue would also be impacted as well as a loss of revenue to all kinds of accessories. These losses of revenue will hit Apple as well as Google. As I see it a simple creation of imbalance by people who (by my reckoning) have no clue on the internet of things. What a lovely present ego makes for others.

Enjoy the coming day.

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October 6, 2024 · 20:05

Is it merely political?

That was the thought I had. It came from Politico, as such I would believe that it was political. Yet the larger premise is on the setting of circumstance. This sounds weirdly spooky, but it is the best I can offer. The story (at https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-war-economy-pain-saudi-arabia-sink-global-oil-prices-energy-russia-opec/) starts with ‘Putin’s war economy faces pain if Saudis sink global oil prices’ which is a partial truth, but it goes further then that. We are given “A Saudi move to grab market share will squeeze the Kremlin’s finances, experts argue” which is only a partial truth. The entire part is followed by “Riyadh is increasingly frustrated with other petrostates’ failure to coordinate on cutting supply to raise oil prices to about $100 per barrel — up from the current $70. Oil traders say Saudi Arabia is now set to respond by flexing its muscles and turning the tables on smaller producers, exporting more oil itself to grab market share and profits, even as prices fall.” We are also given “The Financial Times reported last week that Saudi Arabia could abandon its long-held ambitions to limit the crude supply to push prices to around $100 a barrel. Oil market experts have little doubt that Saudi Arabia has the enormous production and export capacity to change tactics and gun for market domination through volume instead.” In this view I need to align a few positions. What is missing is that America (the United Kingdom also) are depending in keeping oil cheap. So that is missing. Hanging it on the Russian needs is a bit dorky. Yes, they both matter, but the US an EU need for cheap oil missing as a pre-made need, is just dorky (I can’t find a better word for this). You see when there is a lack of a commodity prices go up and now this fails? The world requires (at present) that 2.4 million barrels per day pumped more than now and that is not done. I actually speculated this a year ago when I stated that we can pump 4 barrels at $3, or 3 barrels at $4. The amount gained is still the same but at 25% less oil. It is a simple equation (and an incorrect version) but the the premise remains. I went through to the next stage that Saudi Arabia could pump 2 barrels as the price goes up to $6, still the same revenue but now at half the oil delivered. This is how commerce works on commodities. I still doubt the statement that the $100 per barrel cannot be reached, I merely believe that certain stakeholders want the premise to keep their pockets lined. How? I cannot tell, I am not an oil person, I merely use it through various means. So what gives? 

When we get to ““The global economy is fairly sluggish and oil demand is not as high as the Saudis would want,” said Ajay Parmar, director of oil markets analytics at commodities intelligence firm ICIS.” I have issues here. You see, this means that the Russia delivers all oil. There is not a lack of demand, some people are playing a high end game to keep their pockets lined. If I had it my way (pretend that I am the new CEO of Aramco, a very fake one) I would stop 5.5 million barrels a day from reaching the US, EU and UK, in the combination 3,2 and .5 it would take less than 90 days for it all to implode. As Tesla is more and more lacking is quality, the other nations will need 2-3 years to overcome their downfall and in that time China is the new superpower with America stumbling over the edge of the abyss. That is clear in my (optionally wrong) point of view. The setting that Politico gives is too partial and slightly too flawed. 

Yes Russia has a problem and they are welcome to the problems they get to harvest now. A second problem is “Russia’s fossil fuel profits have also risen by 41 percent in the first half of this year alone, according to Moscow’s finance ministry, despite Western sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.” I don’t doubt these numbers, but who paid for that oil? I doubt is was merely China, North Korea and India. Although these countries were involved. I saw last year that India was buying some of the oil, China is a definite and I guess that North Korea had to pay for their weapons and it seems like a logical choice for them to accept oil as payment. So who more? 

Politico should have stated “Russia’s fossil fuel profits have also risen by 41 percent (from 1M barrels to 1.41M barrels)” but they didn’t if Russia only sold 50,000 barrels it will not be an issue, but that is not the case, is it?

Now if you doubt my reasoning. That is fine. But we have seen plenty of issues where prices go up the moment that commodities has a higher demand. Yet the article does not give us that does it? And who is Ajay Parmar? This article leaves me with plenty of questions and no answers. So in all this, Is Russia in actual trouble? To some degree, but I see this as an alternative way for Saudi Arabia to give in to the west requiring cheap oil. I personally believe that Politico missed their mark and as such loses credibility as such. The one part that I do see is “A loophole allows middlemen in countries like Turkey, China and India to refine Russian oil in petrol and diesel before selling it elsewhere — exempt from sanctions. According to a report first seen by POLITICO, Western countries spent $2 billion on this rebranded fuel in the first half of 2024” As such that should be the story and the story is that more and more nations are fuelling Russian revenue through refining Russian oil and filling their pockets. As such there is a momentum being built, one that is not addressed and one that is trivialised as such I expect that plenty of newspapers will fuel their revenue by posting this story. The 41% is now shown to be big business, especially when we see Turkey and India and how they are short on cash pretty much all of the time.

So we are seeing a larger stage. In the first on where is Russian oil going to and in the second what countries are fuelling their demands for cheap oil? A nice spreadsheet would have been nice, but that was a part that Politico oversaw (I guess).

Still as we see one part, we also see the part that some want us to see, appointed awareness. A combination of social awareness and the influence of appointing. A formal arrangement to create a designed social awareness. The ability to understand a situation as the offical parties would like others to see them. But as I see it, this will be at the expense of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Is that fair all whilst Russia is handed loophole after loophole, as long as the west gets its oil cheap. How is this not exploitation? 

Consider what is being done and at what expense? The question is simple enough. 

Enjoy the Sunday you have left to you.

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