Tag Archives: Goldman Sachs

December 8, 2025 · 22:58

A Peter Sellers world

That is what hit me when I saw ‘How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bubble’ (source: Bloomberg) which comes from Dr Strangelove where we get “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb” it started a larger set of thoughts. 

I didn’t use that article as Bloomberg uses a paywall. And it starts with yesterdays article in FXLeaders (at https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/12/07/oracles-ai-bubble-bursts-peak-glory-at-345-now-a-217-hangover/) where we see ‘Oracle’s AI Bubble Bursts: Peak Glory at $345, Now a $217 Hangover’ we are given “ORCL ended the week at $217.58, up 1.52 percent, but it still had a 37 percent hangover from its 52-week high of $345.72. This is a microcosm of growing concerns about debt loads, AI infrastructure spending, and whether the “infinite demand” narrative for AI compute can withstand real-world economics.” As well as “Oracle’s recent decline in stock value reflects broader market concerns regarding the high valuations of AI-related companies, as its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio exceeds 33. The company projects revenues of $166 billion from cloud infrastructure and $20 billion. Investors adopted a “sell the news” mentality, raising questions about the sustainability of these forecasts. Oracle’s fundamentals remain solid. The company experienced  52% growth in cloud infrastructure and has $455 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO), largely due to its partnership with OpenAI. Currently, the stock is trading at 13.9 times projected earnings for the end of this decade, leading some investors to view the decline as a potential buying opportunity.”

As I see it Oracle passed their burst bubble setting. And whilst we see ups and downs, I would unreservedly trust the Oracle stock to be a beacon of steadiness. It might not be sexy, but it is a trustworthy sign for those who need a decent return on investment.

Or as Peter sellers would say:
“As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden. Yes! There will be growth in the spring!” (Source: Being there) it was a better time and weirdly enough the age of Peter Sellers applies to the days that 2025 brings. And from that setting we get to MyNews (at https://sc.mp/ihj4g) where we see ‘Why 2026 will be the year AI hype collides with reality’ an opinion piece that gives me “The reckoning ahead for the AI bubble promises to reprice expectations, force economic trade-offs and call out circular deals” but the stronger setting is given with “Speculative assumptions guiding trillions of US dollars in AI investments are colliding with real-world obstacles. Escalating costs, stratospheric stock valuations, tenuous collaborations and energy bottlenecks are compounding the inevitable challenges when new technologies struggle for profitability. Many are worried the bubble may be bursting. Morgan Stanley projects that the cumulative amount spent worldwide on data centers could exceed US$3 trillion by year-end 2028. China’s AI investment could hit 700 billion yuan (US$99 billion) this year, 48 per cent more than last year, according to Bank of America, with the government supplying US$56 billion.” There is a setting for both ‘AI investments are colliding with real-world obstacles’ and ‘worldwide on data centers could exceed US$3 trillion by year-end 2028’ the weird feeling I have that it will not get this far, this entire setting will implode before the end of 2027, investors will stop feeling lovingly towards the boom that is not coming and will start feeling pressured that the terms required that will grow erratic setting for the need for greed and that is the setting that comes along long before 2027 is reached. 

Then we get to AOL who gives us (at https://www.aol.com/finance/goldman-sachs-issues-warning-ai-103249744.html) where we are given ‘Goldman Sachs issues a warning to AI stock investors’ where we are given ““Our discussions with investors and recent equity performance reveal limited appetite for companies with potential AI-enabled revenues as investors grapple with whether AI is a threat or opportunity for many companies. While we expect the AI trade will eventually transition to Phase 3, investors will likely require evidence of a tangible impact on near-term earnings to embrace these stocks. Unlike Phase 2, there will likely be winners and losers within Phase 3,” Goldman Sachs US equity strategist Ryan Hammond wrote in a new note on Friday. Hammond thinks AI investment as a percentage of capital expenditures could be nearing a climax. In turn, that sets the stage for overly upbeat AI investors to be let down if earnings don’t come in strongly in future quarters.” As I see it, when we are given these settings everyone seems to get concerned, so when we get in addition “Salesforce (CRM) and Figma (FIG) got drilled on Thursday after their earnings reports didn’t wow. It’s clear that the hype on their earnings calls wasn’t enough to paper over soft areas of the earnings reports. Growing concern on the Street centers around the pace of AI demand by corporations, given what looks to be a slowing US economy.” As I stated this before, the need for greed overwhelmed everything. When the setting of NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) is not clearly laid out and it is caught in the waves of board of directors and Investors believing that they have the AI solution everyone is looking for you gets a larger setting, consider that and consider what happens when OpenAI “fails to wow” the investors, or even a delay and it all comes to a large shutdown and that is even before we see 9 News giving us “A Sydney data centre that will host ChatGPT is being hailed as a win for Australia, but an expert warns the country lacks the energy supply needed to power it reliably” I gave a few months ago that there would be an energy problem on numerous levels and now we are seeing that whilst we are dealing with the the fallout of other settings. And less than an hour ago Deutsche Welle gives us ‘Google raises AI stakes as OpenAI struggles to stay on top’  with “Given those strengths, Adrian Cox sees “a very high probability” Google will have the leading model at least into next year — not OpenAI. OpenAI’s priority, he says, is identifying a business model capable of funding a user base that could soon approach a billion people per week.” This is not about OpenAI, I did that already, the larger frame is set in the perception of whatever the bubble is and I believe that there are two factors that the media doesn’t want or is avoiding to include. First there are the doom sayers trying to early burst confidence in favor of short gains and then there are people trying to short on whatever they can so that they can get another jolt of profit and they are all out trying to set social media on their side. 

So if this is the prologue of what is about to unfold we are in for a jolly good time, and as I see it, there is a chance that Christmas for some will be a disaster.

I wanted to include more of Peter sellers, like the Party or the Pink Panther but I am running out of juice. But there was one more thing and I got it from the Independent about an hour ago. It states ‘OpenAI rushes out new AI model in ‘code red’ response to fears about Google’ (at https://ca.news.yahoo.com/openai-rushes-ai-model-code-105822611.html) that was the snippet I was hoping for. With “The ChatGPT creator will unveil GPT-5.2 this week, The Verge reported, after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a “code red” situation following the launch of Google Gemini 3 last month. Google’s latest AI model surpassed ChatGPT in several benchmark tests, including abstract and visual reasoning, as well as advanced knowledge across scientific disciplines.” But that comes in a setting, you see, I stated in ‘TBD CEO OpenAI’ two days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/12/06/tbd-ceo-openai/) “in a software release any of a hundred things can go wrong and they all need to go right at present.” And when things are rushed out things will go wrong. But there is a snag, for this to happen The Independent article had to be correct and as they are the only one giving us this, there is no real verification available. But when you are in a stage when bubbles go boom (or plop) all the available facts become important. And I massively wish that a Peter sellers setting would help me out. And perhaps in view of this, his classic phrase “It’s no matter. When you’ve seen one Stradivarius, you’ve seen them all.” Especially when looking at NIP software. But that is also the snag. I have seen excellent applications and I have seen lesser ones. I reckon that it amounts to who plays the violin, if it is a creative person that person will find new life in whatever that person. applies NIP to, if it is a salesperson it will be about maximizing greed and that setting tends to have limitations on several degrees. In addition we are given “The new model was originally scheduled to launch in late December, but will now be released as early as 9 December.” I understand the pressures that come with this but they better understand that early launch bring dangers and investors don’t really like to be spooked (they also don’t like them) What we see is open to interpretation and it is a valid thought that my views are also open to interpretation. 

So in this I leave you all with a presenting view not unlike Peter sellers would say “To see me as a person on screen would be one of the dullest experiences you could ever wish to experience” and 

As you I have never been in a movie (at least I don’t remember being in one) you are spared that dull experience. So have a great day and don’t forget to love the bubble (if you haven’t invested your wealth there).

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November 4, 2025 · 10:05

At the benefit of Riyadh

That is what I saw a few days ago, but as with all matters, the people who see the advantage do not always see what they have. You see, almost 3 years ago I wrote ‘Girdle your loins’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/11/30/girdle-your-loins/) where I have both Kingdom Holdings, Saudi Arabia and Amazon the stage where they could set the stage of an additional 6 billion a year with optionally enlarging this to about 15 billion a year (a cautious conservative estimate) and that was merely the beginning. I tried to hand it to Google, but the person I had to seal to was not in the office (it was in the Covid lockdown stage) and 2 days later they dumped the Google Stadia. So, I was depending on Amazon (and Andy Jessy), or the Kingdom Holding, but there I had to deal with   Prince Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud. And he has never heard of me, so I was up going nowhere. And I get it, a billionaire gets thousands of ‘pleads’ in a daily basis and I don’t amount to much. I get that. But that doesn’t take away the anguish of having the idea of a lifetime (well 50 million dollars plus change) and as it holds billions of revenue, I was in a decent position, but over the last three years my changes has dwindled, even Tencent was leaving the idea in the ground and for the life of me I cannot understand why these so called ‘self made billionaires’ leave this much revenue one the floor. I get the idea that if it isn’t AI, it is worthless, but the sentiment behind that is flawed as AI doesn’t exist and the issues I raised with energy and validation and verification of data are showing a much larger setting now (see yesterday’s blog). 

But as Saudi Arabia bought Electronic Arts the issue changes. You see the second pillar on the story ‘Girdle your loins’ has a new lease on life as Electronic Arts brought some of the highest rated games during 1985-1999 and that is the focal point of a lot of games and as Saudi Arabia owns the IP now, the games that are published as Bullfrog will be worth a massive amount. 

We had Magic Carpet (1+2), Dungeon Keeper (1+2), Populous (1+2) and there is another upside. These games can be released in the original setting (with upgraded sound and graphics) and there is the setting that these games can be ‘islamiphied’ giving a game like Populous the setting to add the graphics of an Arabic themed land, with optional setting that added libraries can be unlocked in the game as you conquer the lands it adds a cauldron with a graphic theme and that gives the player a new stride on the game. And that is one house who had additional titles, as such the setting for Riyadh increases to a larger setting and one that brings in the money. Wouldn’t it be nice if (as I personally see it) that the investment of $55 billion will earn itself back in under a decade by additional means? That is what Google, Amazon and others left on the floor. And only 20 hours ago the Guardian gave us ‘Boom or bubble? Inside the $3tn AI datacentre spending spree’ with the byline “Investment in these vast warehouses is huge but some worry the debt-fuelled exuberance will backfire” with the setting of “Google’s owner Alphabet has reported revenues of $100bn in a single quarter for the first time, helped by growing demand for its AI infrastructure, while Apple and Amazon have also just reported strong results.” And still the media avoids certain matters as we are given “Goldman Sachs expects it to double by the end of 2030. This carries a further infrastructure cost of its own, according to Goldman, with $720bn of grid spending needed to meet that energy demand.” So double the effort by 2030? Is that a critical holding, because as I personally see it, the American economy doesn’t have that long and the energy setting is critical as is validating and verifying the Deeper Machine Learning data sets, an issue that is ‘circumvented’ by nearly all. As such I personally feel that my solution as a way around shortage of funds was seemingly (a personal view) a good idea to have in the back pocket and I was eager to hand it to Google (just to keep it out of the hands of Microsoft) but alas, I was not that fortunate. And make no mistake. I wanted to cash in on my ideas as anyone would, so there is no altruistic setting here. I am not better than all (just better than most) and now it seems that Saudi Arabia and through it I reckon Kingdom Holdings have the inside track on billions left on the floor. I wonder if they will make a deal with Tencent to make it work. 

Have a great day. I will dream of icy cold water (it is 28 degrees celsius now) and the taste of refreshing icy cold water appeals to me at present.

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September 8, 2025 · 10:53

Setting to lull

That is not a setting I usually entertain, but the stage is now that I am. In the first the alcoholic across the hall decided to play his music 50 dB over the allowed limit and the land lord does nothing. He is the guy who casually mentioned that he went to school with the Beatle (he does not have a Liverpool accent) and he filmed President Putin topless on a horse. He is that kind of useless. 

In the meantime I could bash the idiots brain in, but then I go to prison and I am hoping that some of my irons will result in revenue making this place a massive part of me immediate past. So I need to suck it up, which in this setting of ageism is not easy. I am still working on two other scripts, but my lack of Final Draft exposure makes it a little hard. Redesigning blog articles into script parts is not a clear cut as it should be. I might redo part in pages and then import it into Final Draft, but that is for another day. As I was looking into these scripts (I have currently 4 scripts), one has been submitted to Channels in Saudi Arabia and the UAE as this script would appeal to an Islamic population. I might want to learn the setting of Indonesia, but I reckon that these two will also show my work to the audiences in Indonesia, Bangladesh and Egypt. That is the first. The second one is Vitam Exhauriens which played in part in New Orleans and in part all over the world. Then there is Keno Diastimas which is in an undisclosed location under water. And that has a few lovely twists. That one is an open-ended three seasons part with the open ending (I thought it was better that way and a wink in the direction of Terry Gilliam A director I have admired for a long time. The fourth one is the one that is ‘now’ in season three and is called Engonos. That one is in part in London, in part in Greece and in part in Turkey (so these parts need to be found in one locations), but that is not my problem, my ‘challenge’ is the story and these three are on my plate. I have progression in both Vitam Exhauriens and Keno Diastimas, but they have different ‘challenges’ the second one is pretty complete, but I am still uncertain about some of the elements, to make it fit better as a story and as a TV show, but that is my challenge.

The second setting is about making some issues work (not the scripts). As I see the world going to hell in a hand basket, I can merely look at what happens and see how it unfolds. There is nothing I can do about it. As Reuters is giving us ‘US unemployment rate near 4-year high as labor market hits stall speed’ as well as ‘Wall Street Week ahead inflation data looms for markets’ and that happens whilst we also get Goldman Sachs as Reuters gives us ‘Goldman takes $1 billion stake in T. Rowe to tap retirement money’ and there we get “Big financial firms such as Goldman, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley are making a big push into alternative assets, an area dominated by private equity firms, to capitalize on their growth potential and attract new clients.” And that has to go at the cost of retirement money? I am not an economist and I do not claim to be one, but there is something ‘shoddy’ (in my mind) that a bank would invest a billion dollars. It usually is to get more in return. So how does this help retirees? I made mention that the BIGFIN and government would shake the retirement tree at some point. Is this the beginning?

I do not know, but it makes me uneasy. You see, if this is happening in America now, then soon enough (I have no idea when) it will happen to the United Kingdom, Australia and Europe as well. When? That is anyones guess and I reckon that the American setting is dire enough to do this now, but it takes a lot more knowledge to confirm or scuttle the setting we see here. The Financial Times is hanging the question whether the America economy is already in recession and the should know, so it seems like the economists at large are playing musical chairs. All that whilst the Economist comes with ‘What if the AI Stockmarket blows up?’ With the byline that “We find that the potential cost has risen alarmingly high” I could have told them that over a year ago and the entire builder.ai with the setting of Microsoft pumping it up to a billion dollars wasn’t a nearly dead giveaway? 

It is now as we approach Q4 that the ‘high’ costs are ‘suddenly’ getting the forefront news. And this happens in a time when America is getting hit with negative news after negative news. I saw most parts of this coming, but now we seemingly get it all in one quarter and I reckon that is the moment the larger companies start shedding more and more jobs whilst hiding behind the nonexistent AI wall. Yup, that will give several people a bloody nose to begin with and when the media wakes up from all this screaming “What’s this, how could this happen?” You know you’ve been had because they (the media) merely care about their digital dollars. So whilst we get all this, The Financial Times also gives us ‘Peter Mandelson warns US and UK must unite to halt Chinese tech supremacy’, I could not read the article as I am not a member, but here is a thought. How about becoming an actual ‘innovative’ force. Not claiming that you are, but becoming one. I am hoping that Peter Mandelson refers to the British Ambassador to the United States. You see, China is at least a furlong ahead of the rest and when we see a race that is merely 5 furlongs you are already losing that race. If the race is 12 furlongs you are less likely to become winner, at best you can hope to come a contender and I have shown that Amazon and Google dropped the ball a few times leaving billions on the floor. Al claiming that they had the AI field in hand. But there is no AI field, not yet and that realisation gives the setting. I basically handed the open victory to Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud as well as Tencent. Whether they would grab that open ball for the win is anyone’s guess, but that is where we stand. So whilst we see all kinds of places shedding thousands of people, I cannot vouch for Google doing that. There is talks that thousands were shed, but it is specific (and I do not know all the details), so whilst we see that these people are shed, we see ‘their’ reasons for shedding sales people and being replaced by AI agents. That is out in the open. I am not judging as DML is a setting that can be applied to advertising. So how that goes will be in the corridors of awaiting judgment.

Still we see a massive change happening and I am (fiercely) hoping that people like Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud see the wisdom that I bring (it would make my retirement a decent certainty). But that too is out in the open. I do know that if my retirement depends on the American setting that I end up working until the day I die in hunger. Not a setting I relish mind you.

So I end up in a waiting pattern for now. Have a great day. My Monday is off to a rocky start.

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August 16, 2025 · 16:51

The BBC woke up

That is the setting I was given this morning. After I have been saying for a few weeks now that the pieces aren’t fitting in regards to a few things. The BBC now gives us (12 hours ago) ‘The US economy is a puzzle but the pieces aren’t fitting together’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypgx90243o) where we are being told “They say his tariffs and crackdown on immigrants risk a return of 1970s-esque “stagflation”, when a sudden oil shock prompted stagnant growth and spiraling prices, except this time the crisis would be self-inflicted. The White House has just as steadfastly dismissed those concerns, attacking the experts – and, in the case of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, firing her”, as well as “A few days later, Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi declared on social media that the economy was “on the precipice of a recession””

We then read “On Friday, the US government reported that spending at retailers and restaurants rose 0.5% from June to July – and that spending in June had been stronger than previously estimated. “Consumers are down but not out,” wrote Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, which is predicting a modest recovery in spending in the months ahead, as tax cuts and a stock market recovery boost confidence.” And as I see it, there is someone adhering to specialized requests, on the go at the setting of someone. The article then states the setting that is ‘perceived’ as “forecasters expect price increases to widen in the months ahead, as firms sell down pre-tariff stock and raise prices, now that they have more confidence about what the tariff policies might be. That’s why there was so much focus on the producer price index, which measures wholesale prices commanded by US producers before they hit consumers, offering a clue to what’s coming. It accelerated at the fastest pace in more than three years in July.” I saw this in a few ways. Consider the tourism industry. We see clear fall down issues. And would luck have it, the other are responding in a very similar way. Forbes gives us ‘New $250 Visa Integrity Fee Will Cost US $11 Billion, Say Tourism Officials’ the story goes repeated by MSN, and others. At the same time we see TTW (Travel and Tour world) release over a dozen articles in the last day on other places doing other things, like giving us ‘Vermont Unifies New Hampshire, Maine, New York, Wisconsin in Boosting Tourism Industry Attracting US and Canada Tourists During This Fall’ All whilst the larger picture is that “Canadian tourism to the US has declined due to tariffs and anti-Canadian rhetoric, with a 38% drop in road trips and 24% drop in air travel in May.” And the same numbers seems to apply for June, July and likely august too. So the picture is distorted and someone with larger fingers is juicing the numbers in different stages and states. All whilst TTW used to give us a limited number of views, someone is thrashing the typewriters there giving us a large amounts of ‘debatable’ data sources. Someone does not want us to see the setting that things are a lot worse for America than the media is willing to make us realize and that it merely part of it all. 

All whilst NPR radio gives us ‘Trump is tightening the screws on corporate America — and CEOs are staying mum’ which comes (at https://www.npr.org/2025/08/14/nx-s1-5501591/trump-corporate-america-capitalism) with “Corporate America doesn’t want to fight with President Trump in public. But as a result, it’s ceding him an unprecedented amount of control over the shape — and future — of U.S. business. In the past week, the president has turned up the heat on big companies and their CEOs to an extent that is unprecedented even by Trump’s norms-shattering standards. He has publicly attacked companies and their executives throughout his political career — but now he’s demanding firings of executives who aren’t even household names, such as a corporate economist at Goldman Sachs.” Bad news is not allowed in America, not even a little. As I see it, the puzzle pieces don’t fit because the willing minority doesn’t want to give yo the goods, they want to get the jobs they aren’t qualified for or they don’t want to lose their jobs and that is because there are three more years of Trump and Elon Musk is likely the only one to be able to survive this setting, and because he is likely to be sitting on another trillion dollars of value. So why haven’t we heard from Jerome Powell? And CNN gave us (three days ago) ‘Trump is considering suing Jerome Powell, White House says’ (at https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/12/economy/trump-lawsuit-fed-chair-powell) with the setting of ““Fortunately, the economy is so good that we’ve blown through Powell and the complacent Board. I am, though, considering allowing a major lawsuit against Powell to proceed because of the horrible, and grossly incompetent, job he has done in managing the construction of the Fed Buildings,” Trump wrote on his social media platform”, as well as “Firing Powell would be a legally complicated endeavor, given that Senate-confirmed members of the Fed’s board can only be fired “for cause.” However, Trump seems keen on homing in on the Fed’s multibillion-dollar building renovation as a possible reason that would merit a “for cause” firing. The president claimed the renovation should have been a “$50 Million Dollar fix up. Not good!”” A setting that could erupt in a messy situation. I ‘personally’ don’t like the guy, but as far as I can see, he’s done a really good job with the pawns and issues he could have played. He has been enormously good for America and that needs to be said. Whoever would replace him would not likely be able to do better and that would be another iron in the fire giving President Trump a heartache all over the financial setting. As I see it, Canada is lucky to get the Former British Bank governor as Prime minister of Canada. That man can slice and dice whatever America throws the way of Canada. At present Canada created new channels of income with Mexico and Europe whilst depriving America of these settings. There never will be be a 51st state for America. 

Oh, and how is America’s economy good? China has been able to stranglehold (America’s way of putting it) on rare earths minerals. So how much of these rare earths come from China? The Pentagon gave us “The Department of Defense has made a substantial commitment to domestic rare earth production by acquiring $400 million in MP Materials preferred stock. This investment converts to common shares, giving the Pentagon a 15% ownership stake and positioning it as the company’s largest shareholder, surpassing previous major stakeholders including BlackRock Fund Advisors.” So where are these materials precisely coming from? 

Small questions that have a larger impact on business. At Present China has opened new Channels to the UAE and (speculatively) Egypt as well. Egypt is looking forward to getting its fingers on the Chinese J-35A Stealth Fighter. I’ve been told that it is a cheaper version of the J20 mighty dragon that is at present not seen outside of China.

But these parts are all a setting of a larger debate, a debate that gives us that America is losing defense contracts all over the globe, and China is ready to give it a go. How accurate these ‘facts’ and numbers are are currently not on the minds of western media. Still defense is merely one angle that is sowing the trend of recession. As others are ‘silenced’ on the settings and it merely on the front of AI, we see debatable settings. Which in light of energy flaws is a super hilarious setting. These systems need electricity (and a lot of it), so how that plays out is anyones guess. 

So it is nice of the BBC to wake up, but a lot more is required to give us the goods. So Auf Wiener Schnitzel everyone and have a great day, its 16:39 and as such I have mucho food on the brain at present. It is still Friday in Vancouver, so they have some time to wait until they can have this German delicacy themselves.

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April 20, 2025 · 23:27

Rollback

That is the word of the day, I have always had that word in my vocabulary. The setting that any solution o programmed in Clipper had the setting for a rollback. This is how I grew up (growing up in the Clipper age was a little weird). You see, I had two settings. The first was the data didn’t change and as I was a ‘little’ verbose with my data creation there was the option of registering a data version, so that was the setting. We needed a rollback in several situations and that is where the setting ends. You see, today I got to see a few news lines. 

First there was Reuters (at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-jet-returns-us-china-victim-trumps-tariff-war-2025-04-20/) giving us ‘Boeing jet returns to US from China, a victim of Trump’s tariff war’, now that is a scrumptious hotdog to say the least. At almost $100 million, according to one source, that is a delicious snack to say the least and as we are told. China send it back. The tariff could cripple Xiamen Airlines as the tariff is 125%, and even as Reuters give us that the plane is a mere $55 million, we can say that the price difference is a little too much to be acceptable, the larger setting is that several players are trying to dam in the losses that are projected to become American losses. 

Most of us will have seen the trade agreements that China made with Mexico, so there is that. Then there is the setting we see at where Business Insider gives us the setting that ‘Some Canadian Stores Are Labeling US Imports With a T for ‘Tariffs’’ (business insider put it behind a paywall, so that’s all you get. And only three days ago I saw the headline ‘China’s Strategic Pivot from US to Canadian Oil Imports’ (at https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/chinas-pivot-canadian-oil-imports-2025/) I cannot vouch for this source, yet in that setting we are given “Data reveals Chinese refiners have slashed US crude purchases by approximately 90% between 2023 and 2025, redirecting roughly 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) toward alternative suppliers, with Canada capturing a substantial portion of this market share.” So the first step to a change has been given and I foresaw these changes even as I never knew about the oil. So as I see it, these changes show billions upon billions in losses for America whilst we see damage to their export, their revenue making defense industry, their tourism and we can go on a little longer. Wouldn’t it have been great if America had a rollback setting for their elections? 

So as Goldman Sachs gives us “The decline in the world’s reserve asset during an episode of elevated volatility comes as investors are increasingly focused on the US’s growing debt burden and other countries are also increasing their borrowing. “Markets are dealing with a lot of competing factors right now — fairly significant drivers where it’s hard to trade all of them at once,” says William Marshall, head of US rates strategy in Goldman Sachs Research.” Really? Only now do we see “investors are increasingly focused on the US’s growing debt burden”, that’s about 4 years too late, but whatever. I saw (and reported on this danger for a few years at least). If the EU, Japan and China dump their bonds (that will be an expensive exercise) the value of the Dollar doesn’t just drop, it ends up having getting a CCC− grade (to give a mere view on the matter). At that point the imminent suicide risk will spike all over Wall Street (a clear but reliable speculation).

I reckon that the one dropping them first gets the best value for it, but after that it will be a quick fall to the luxury value of zero. But it is not just America, the bonds of the EU and Japan will face a similar risk, America is merely the highest as someone thought it was a great idea to introduce the tariff game to their economy. Global News told their Canadians ‘Avoid U.S. travel if possible, Canadian academics are being urged’ with others following in similar settings. The Detroit News gives us ‘Avoid U.S. or take burner phones, Canada executives tell staff’ and there are more sources that give us that, with the added “Arrivals of noncitizens to the United States by plane declined by nearly 900,000 people, almost 10%, in March from a year earlier, according to data from the U.S. International Trade Administration. Travelers are reacting to President Donald Trump’s trade war and to stories of harsh detentions at U.S. airports. Border figures show 4,970,360 came to the U.S. from Canada in March 2024. That number dropped to 4,105,516 travelers a year later. More visitors reportedly traveled from Canada to the U.S. in March 2022 under pandemic-related travel restrictions than they did last month.” I think that Canada is the most likely of number drops, but I reckon that it is not the only one. So as I see it, the danger is not only to Tourism, but business travel too and in that case, hotels in all the major cities in the United States will report on losses of 10% or more, so what does that mean for the value of Marriott International, who operates 9,361 hotels worldwide as of 2024. In addition there is Hilton who operates over 8,400 hotels worldwide. I have no idea how many they operate in the USA, but these are merely the two larger players, especially in the business travel setting. So how many businesses are under the hammer because of this situation? And now as Canada is growing closer to the Commonwealth and they will protect their bigger brother (Canada is 9.985 million km² and the UK a mere 243,610 km²) OK, Australia is 7.688 million km², away highly smaller brother than the United Kingdom. But that setting now gives us that these business meetings are likely to be held in the United Kingdom or Australia. Hilton and the Marriott will still get their coins, but the underlying issues will hurt America to a much larger degree. And as this escalates over the next month or so, the damage to America will increase. Additional damage as China and India rolls in as expecting ‘saviors’ to Saudi Arabia and the UAE will change global politics and global economics to a much larger degree. India will get new options to get additional Pharmaceutical products sold to Saudi Arabia and that is another slice of a billion dollars. Then we get the UK, Australia and Japan hammering on improving their slice of Optical, photo, technical, medical apparatus, as such the American slice of $1.39B will decrees a lot more. All this started with tariffs and basically this setting was staged by President Trump. I merely wonder what got into him to drive America to the edge of insanity (and bankruptcy). What a miss that politics don’t have rollbacks and I reckon that the lawmakers in America will push for a larger change of settings, because I am certain that the Republicans are desperate to see this damage undone and it is me personal believe that they will accept any other politician, even a democrat to undo the damage they are seeing right now.

A mere 21 hours ago we got (at https://jakartaglobe.id/business/indonesia-seeks-stronger-trade-ties-with-eu-australia-to-offset-potential-us-export-losses) that Indonesia Globe gives us ‘Indonesia Seeks Stronger Trade Ties with EU, Australia to Offset Potential US Export Losses’, which is fine by me as I love the Indonesian version of Bami Goreng with Saté Ajam with peanut sauce. The best dish I ever had, even now after a decade, the scent penetrates my nose, even as I haven’t had it in over a decade. So I am looking forward to stronger ties with Indonesia and I kinda miss the spices we had in Batavia (my weird sense of humor). But the stage is drawn as more countries seek replacement for America, their tariff becomes their setting for isolation and Australia will be happy to have ties with a country that has 281.2 million potential consumers. I already gave the premise to Saudi Arabia as they have access to something Indonesia desires. As such there are more players to take over the places that America is about to lose and lose more of them. Next in line are the international students who will seek safer places to be. In this Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia have good chances as they all have great places Oxford, and Cambridge might be the first you think of, but not everyone can afford these places. There is till the University College London, University of Melbourne, University of Sydney, University of New South Wales, University of Toronto, University of Manchester, University of Technology Sydney, University of Southampton. These are merely a Commonwealth grasp of those who are in the top 100 and I reckon that the losses for America start to add up now. And that was merely the Ivy League, America has more good universities and now that the international students will seek education elsewhere, the economic picture of America will deteriorate more and more. 

Wouldn’t it have been great to have some kind of political rollback in place? 
Have a great day and consider where you need to set your focus to next. 

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April 1, 2025 · 01:46

Accused, Bluff, Carney

It is a regular A,B,C. And at first I let it slide but then I got a response from the most ignorant stupid Canadian on the planet, I kid you not. As such I had to pick this up. 

Mark Carney (formerly known as Markie Mark of the British Bank) is now at present the PM of Canada and there is an election coming up. So now we get the accusation (as far as I can see) from the National Post. A magazine who is on the side off whomever opposes Mark Carney (conservatively minded), and will you believe it, they are pushing for plagiarism, weirdly enough, the article is well written making the setting a larger problem and all the other sources basically repeat what the National Post gave its readers. 

Two stood out
First there is the Independent (at https://www.independent.co.uk/politics/mark-carney-canada-prime-minister-plagiarism-oxford-b2723812.html) here we also see ‘Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney accused of plagiarism in his Oxford thesis’, now the issues I had was that the accusation came right when there is an election, the larger setting is that this happened 30 years ago and it was at Oxford and academics take plagiarism as the big booboo. As such there is a larger look at Plagiarism (I remember my days in Uni and there is a frightening fear for that word). 

The independent gives us “The accusations were reportedly made by three academics chosen to assess the liberal leader’s 1995 theses for his doctorate by the conservative newspaper the National Post.” More important we were given ““As an academic of nearly 40 years, I see no evidence of plagiarism in the thesis you cited, nor any unusual academic practices,” she emphasized.” This is given to us by Margaret Meyer, an American economist and an economics fellow at Nuffield College in Oxford University. In addition she gives us “Mark’s thesis was evaluated and approved by a faculty committee that saw his work for what it is: an impressive and thoroughly researched analysis that set him apart from his peers” added to that we get “A spokesperson for the Liberal campaign, Isabella Orozco-Madison, called the allegations an “irresponsible mischaracterization” of Carney’s work.” So far, so good. I believe that a thesis would not be unattended for 30 years, not from a place like Oxford. You see, Oxford is surrounded by close to a thousand reporters in any given day, and they have Cambridge looking over their shoulders, just like Oxford is watching Cambridge like a hawk. As I see it, there are issues to some degree and as such we get to the second piece. It comes from 

Where we are given “In my January 2024 blog post, “Plagiarism Witch Hunts Cause Harm,” about the case of former Harvard University President, Dr. Claudine Gay, I pointed out that we appear to be in an era where plagiarism is increasingly weaponized against public figures. Following the resignation of Dr. Gay amid plagiarism allegations, we have seen a troubling pattern of using academic integrity as a political weapon rather than an educational concern.” And this is followed by “There is no singular or universally accepted definition of plagiarism. Oxford University defines it as “presenting work or ideas from another source as your own.” However, interpretations of definitions, as well as the definitions themselves can vary from one university to the next, as I have pointed out elsewhere. In Carney’s case, his doctoral supervisor defended his work, stating she saw “no evidence of plagiarism in the thesis,” whereas academics consulted by the National Post disagreed. One professor, Dr. Geoffrey Sigalet, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia Okanagan (UBCO) stated that the unattributed quotes are “what we call plagiarism.” According to the National Post article, Dr. Sigalet is a member of the UBCO’s institutional president’s advisory committee on student discipline, “which handles cases of plagiarism for the university”. This disagreement underscores the subjectivity in evaluating academic integrity.” With the added question that gives weight to a few issues I have being “Upon reading the National Post article, one question that I had was: was Mr. Carney informed of the allegations before they were investigated?” My issues was that the media could be in hotter waters than they think. As I see it they propagated this setting by basically whaling whatever the National Post handed down to their audience. The added setting given to us is the one why I basically rejected the article, especially as Markie Mark is an Oxford graduate, on a personal note it isn’t the University of Technology Sydney, but they are a larger lead in university educations. And as such when we are given “Investigating work completed nearly 30 years ago raises questions about motives and impact. As I have pointed out previously when I commented on the Dr. Claudine Gay case, “a retroactive investigation into a person’s academic work while they were a student is often an exercise in discrediting someone in their current professional role.”” I basically rejected the stance as I presumed the clarity of the “using academic integrity as a political weapon”, yet I personally would want to call it “abusing academic integrity and misaligning it as a political weapon” A setting that one raised probably in favor of their Conservative Leader (I believe that in Canada it currently is Pierre Polivicious) and that setting we get to the last part given to us by Sarah Elaine Eaton, PhD, a Professor and Research Chair in the Werklund School of Education. She gives us the cherrie of the pie. It is given through “So, Did Mark Carney Plagiarize or Not? The answer is, I don’t know. When I conduct an analysis of text for possible plagiarism, it is a meticulously in-depth and detailed process. I start with the allegedly plagiarized text and I go through it line-by-line comparing it to the original sources from which text has been allegedly lifted without attribution. That can show whether or not there is a potential ‘text match’. There are examples of possible text matches in the National Post article, but they are selective. I cannot make a call on whether or not there was plagiarism based on excerpts. I would want to see the full texts (original and allegedly plagiarized), not bits and pieces.

If we can identify a possible text match, then we need to look for additional evidence. Was this sloppy scholarship or poor academic literacy? For example, were the original sources perhaps listed in the bibliography, but the direct quotations were not attributed in the main body of the text? In the context of the entire thesis, would it appear as though the student was deliberately trying to deceive their supervisor or academic advisory committee. (Intent to deceive is difficult, if not impossible to prove in many cases.)” This is the cherrie as it allows to ask the media to ask these questions, especially the media that merely copied what the National Post gave us. And these publications gave us lacking settings in addition. Who talked to the supervisor of Mark Carney? Who took the questions to Nuffield College, Oxford? Seems like two essential sources for these articles. I see several sources lacking. 

As such I have said my piece and I do not believe that there is a case for plagiarism against Mark Carney. Not because I got the paper (I basically lack economic knowledge), but for the simple setting that a place like Oxford will slap down any student who pushes Plagiarism, intentional or not. Such plagiarism cases hurt Oxford as much as the student. Then there is the timeline. Do you think that the Bank Of England takes on a student who attempts plagiarism? The timeline includes Goldman Sachs (that place is loaded with economy guys) and his work would have been scrutinized by dozens of people and 30 year later, just at the upcoming election someone makes a breakthrough? It smells like yesterdays diapers as Baby Herman told Roger Rabbit. 

Have a great day and enjoy the smell of coffee today.

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December 5, 2024 · 17:07

The price of debt.

That is what I am looking at, the price of debt. You see, they are all hailing that the US economy is strong. One voice (Goldman Sachs), the one that lost it all in 2007 told the world that America would be strong at 2.5% (somewhere I read it). To all it sounds nice and I like nice, but I also query a system that is to my (non-economic view) is rigged. As we see images all over the place on how good things are supposed to be, consider:

We see the setting as tax collected. For 2023 is was “The US government collected nearly $4.7 trillion in gross taxes during the 2023 fiscal year, which is a 15.5% decrease from 2022. The IRS collected taxes from a variety of sources”, now for some it is a little more then milk money. And that sounds nice, but the other side has “As of October 2024, the United States government’s monthly interest rate on its debt is 3.3%. The average interest rate for 2024 is 3.32%, and the total debt is $35.46 trillion.” Consider the simple setting of 3.32% of $35.46 trillion. This gives us $1,170,180,000,000 dollar annually. Which would be ‘liveable’ were it not for the simple fact that this is ONLY interest. The debt remains. And now we have a problem. You see the interest is is a simple 24.89% of the entire taxable revenue and it was 15.5% less from 2022. Do you now see the problem? 25% of all taxable revenue goes to the banks that carry the debt. The federal government spent $6.75 trillion in FY 2022. This means that they spend over 30% to much, more than they had and if there was no debt we could argue, but at this setting we are faced with the simple fact that $6.75 trillion was spent over an available amount of $3.5 trillion, which is getting worse and worse. As such we could surmise that the debt will increase with a little over 3 trillion over spending over last year alone. As I see it America is done for. And the setting worsens with the optional crushing of Google in 2025 (by breaking up that firm) which give Huawei their first global win. Then the defence industry is losing more and more revenue to China and this sets a larger premise. In that setting we see on one hand “The A&D industry generated $425 billion in economic value, representing 1.6 percent of the 2023 nominal GDP in the U.S.”, yet in this we already seeing revenue shifting to China in this year alone and more revenue goes to Europe. For Saudi Arabia alone this sets the bar at “In 2024, the Saudi Arabian defense budget is worth $71.7 billion and will grow at a CAGR of more than 8% during 2025-2029.” Yet other sources give us that “Saudi Arabia estimates military spending will be 15 percent lower than budgeted this year” as such we could surmise that this implies that Saudi Arabia by itself would spend $10 billion less. Not a biggie you say, but the other side is that China now has a little over 10% on that slice of delicious gunpowder baked pie. Making the loss for America more. As such we see an annual loss of $16 billion in one year alone from one customer. As such, what would be the books on India, Japan, Taiwan, Pakistan and Indonesia? If we see these picture, we see a dangerous escalation towards some fictive nil revenue for America. Fictive because that will never happen, but as the largest players seek economic stability they will spend less and take other jobs ‘in-house’ as the expression goes and America has been too reluctant to appease to that state of mind. And now China will step in to offer just that. As I see it, the question on the dollar setting was wrong. We are given “As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD” against the tariffs threat by president elect Trump. The actual question would become “How long could the US Dollar keep standing?” You see, as the debt becomes a millstone around the neck of the US administration, we need to consider that some nations will seek shelter from the fallout that this setting. In 2017, on March 17th I wrote ‘The finality of French freedom’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/), I set the comparison of the Euro like a barge kept in balance by 4 strong economies. UK, France, Germany and a combined economic anchor. The UK was lost and there was a setting when the French anchor would be lost too. The Euro could not survive a setting with two anchors. A simple equation. Now with the Dollar under attack the Euro could face near certain scuttling. As such the Dollar has an influence there. China seemingly doesn’t care, but the other players who make up a combined anchor might switch sides when they merely look at their own currency. And the debt? They will not care. And as such the dollar faces a lot more than the bully tactics of choice. They will need to up the game by a lot, because when one goes, so will the other and that puts the livelihood and liveability of 784 million people at the markers. 100,000 of them will do fine, but that represents a simple 0.01275348% of people who are likely to make it (outside of the EU and USA), so when were that good statistics? 

The price of debt was always there, but the media has been eager and willing to hide those facts through BS and spin and soon when the people catch on (the other 99.987% of people), the live of playing the media courtesan will be one of the most dangerous of them all. People remember. And it was a simple equation for the media. “You can fool all the people some of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time but you can never fool all of the people all of the time” A simple setting I knew to be true as early as the early 80’s. So how long did they have at most? Some are already falling in the bad light and when the people realise that they weren’t eating potatoes, but turnips. They will become massively enraged. 

A simple setting I have known to become reality at some point. So when are we given the goods? When the interest of the debt of America is shown as a setting against the budget and at this time it is around 25%, Americans need to realise that budgets need to diminish by at least 30%, so at what point do the people realise that the simplicity of the matter is that their money is about to be gone?

Have a lovely day.

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October 24, 2023 · 01:23

Digital coins anywhere?

Two articles came to my attention, all about the same subject. The first one was from the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67161638) where we see ‘Top crypto firms named in $1bn fraud lawsuit’ this article includes the two favourite in the Facebook (or META) realm. They are Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss. There we see the accusations by New York attorney Letitia James who gives us “Gemini, a crypto exchange, had lied to customers about the risks of an investment account it offered, which paid high interest rates on crypto.” To be honest, I have yet to see any honest presentation of digital currency, but that is another discussion and we aren’t having that one today. It was the partial setting “Genesis, a crypto lender, and its parent company Digital Currency Group were also involved in the programme. It was halted last November, cutting off customer access to funds. That came shortly after the collapse of FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange run by Sam Bankman-Fried, who is now fighting fraud charges of his own. Genesis, which had loaned heavily to his companies, filed for bankruptcy a few months later.” You see, the term ‘heavily loaned’ is loaded. How much EXACTLY was loaned to Bankman-Fired? It is the stage of “In the lawsuit, prosecutors said Gemini was aware that Genesis had shaky financials from the start of the programme.” It implies that there was some under the table dealings between Genesis and Gemini. It doesn’t say so outright, but that is what I am picking up on this. So when we get to “Prosecutors said Genesis and DCG tried to hide the situation with financial manoeuvring and false reports, including to Gemini, while claiming publicly that its balance sheet was strong” we see a second cog in action. It is seen with “false reports, including to Gemini” if true enough it could allow Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss play the victim card. We get more emotion as w usually see in these kind of cases, but the chocolaty centre is there. It is when you consider the second article from Financial News London, who (at https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/goldman-sachs-crypto-firm-bitgo-dubai-hiring-expansion-20231023) gives us ‘Goldman Sachs-backed crypto firm BitGo eyes Dubai expansion’. They aren’t related, but when you consider the amount of issues that digital currency has, the stage changes. I reckon that neither Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss or Sam Bankman-Fried would accept extradition to the UAE if they get to be investigated for fraud or something as trivial as misplacing a few billion? So when we get to “The crypto firm, which is headquartered in the US, has applied for a Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority licence to operate in the Middle East’s key financial hub.” I tend to worry. You see, the moment things go pear shaped and they will, there will suddenly be a lot of tug and pull issues with getting extraditions being completed. These people (the three mentioned) will cry foul, will cry victim and they would not want to face Emirati courts. But that setting will come to full fruition when Goldman Sachs will have to face the music, so when we see “We do have some hiring to do in Dubai as well” I merely wonder if people like Mike Belshe have any clue what they are in for. When you see the FTX setting, the crazy setting that now involves Genesis and Gemini the entire setting is a disaster waiting to happen and no matter how many media will play orchestra for alleged criminals, there will be a larger play in motion and as such when the United Arab Emirates will demand the extradition of the board of directors of Goldman Sachs, how many will have left the firm hours before that request hits the tables of the Department of Justice in America (or London for that matter)? 

And when you consider that the US and the UAE do not have a formal written extradition treaty, we see why people want to skate on that ice rink, but until America can actually successfully prosecute these people I wonder if it is a good idea to allow this evolution to begin with. I don’t think that anyone in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is willing to hand over real created revenue to American cowboys in the setting of billion dollar frauds. There is a fool born every minute and the UAE people don’t strike me as fools. Personally I would never allow this to happen, or at least not until we see proper prosecution and a real extradition treaty in place, but that is just me and as always, I could be wrong.

Enjoy Monday. 

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August 19, 2023 · 23:50

It started with television

To get the entire mess I will start with a television episode.

The line was “Not that I don’t appreciate the sentiment behind your nightmare scenario” it was linking a conversation between President Bartlett and Dr. Takahashi. The episode was ‘A good Day’ season 6 episode 17. Yes, this part is fiction and some of the mentioned elements were too, but not all and that is the striking part. This episode aired in March 2005. You think that would be the end of it, but you would be wrong. Lets take a look at reality.

The Financial Times gave us ‘Saudi Arabia cuts holdings of US Treasuries to 6-year low’ on august 17th (at https://www.ft.com/content/2925952d-1e20-4748-8fa4-05b3605fc46a). There we are given “Saudi Arabia sold down its holdings of US Treasuries in June to the lowest in more than six years, as the kingdom directs more funds to foreign equity and domestic investments. The kingdom held $108.1bn of Treasury securities in June, down $3.2bn from May and below the $119.7bn it held at the end of last year, according to data from the US Treasury department.” This is merely part one, the second part is seen with ‘China likely to cut more US debt holdings’ (at https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202308/16/WS64dce79ba31035260b81c880.html) this is not the end, this is merely the beginning of what was described in the West Wing as the nightmare scenario. You would think that the EU and Japan would come to the aid of the US, but you would be wrong. Mario Draghi overspend trillions in the past and now the EU credit card is stretched to the max. Japan had in March 2023, a Japanese public debt is estimated to be approximately 9.2 trillion US Dollars, or 263% of GDP. Japan has no place to go and that is the beginning of systems collapsing. The US is in its endgame towards becoming an economic third world nation. 

Yet there is more tom come. We also get (at https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-entire-financial-monetary-social-180841464.html) ‘‘It’s The Death Of The Entire Financial, Monetary And Social System’: This Market Expert Warns The U.S. Dollar Is Quickly Losing Its Reserve Status.’ I do not know Jing Pan and I do not know whether she is correct, but she gives us one part that struck a nerve. She gives us “In March, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank grabbed major headlines. After the bank sold its Treasury bond portfolio, it incurred a substantial loss, causing depositors to question its liquidity and leading to a bank run. Amid this market upheaval, Silvergate Bank, First Republic Bank and Signature Bank failed as well. “This banking crisis is not over,” she said. “Maybe they’ve been able to paper over it, and so everybody is calm, and you have consumer confidence going up and all of this other kind of garbage. But it’s built on a house of lies.”” It struck a nerve because I got there through different means. You see when the SVB issues was playing out, we suddenly get a news article with Janet Yellen who is keeping tabs on the situation. Janet Yellen, United States Secretary of the Treasury. Not some governor from California, not someone from the banking industry. No, it was El Jefe from the treasury herself. It was overkill. I had issues and I wrote about them earlier (not sure when). I wondered why the SVB was in that setting and why Yellen personally took notice. I wondered who was holding the US bonds. Because banks had some of the bonds, but no one had a list of how much and no one had a clue (or remained silent) on how much the SVB was holding. 

As such I had an issue, things weren’t adding up. And now the two largest finders of the planet are shedding the US debt. As I see it the US has painted themselves in a corner and things will go ugly soon enough.

This is where the next article comes in. The article (at https://tickernews.co/u-s-credit-card-debt-levels-just-surpassed-1-trillion/), which is not the only source gives us ‘U.S. credit card debt levels just surpassed $1-trillion’, as such 300 million people have a collective debt of over on thousand billion. This amounts to the degree that every American has a debt well over $3,000. So how will this unfold when the dollar drops? Now, I am generalising but the larger stage is now set. Bonds are going nowhere and in 2022 long-dated U.S. notes lost 39.2% in value. So how safe are those bonds now? We know about the inflation and that it is rising, but CNN reports that ‘US banks sitting on unrealised losses of $620 billion’. This came to us in March, as such the SVB issues are rising, are they not? So where are those bonds? Who is reaping the losses on that one and the nightmare scenario that a television series gave to us in 2005 is about to become a very real issue in 2023 and 2024. 

We might have thought 20 years ago that bonds were the safest place to be, but only 20 years later and this is no longer a reality and moreover the allies of the USA are shedding them, or cashing in to reduce the damage from them. This leaves America in a very vulnerable position. As I personally see it, they painted themselves in a corner and the windows on the two adjacent walls are soon out of reach to anyone in that corner. To add to this, the paint is red and massively toxic (as I see it), so no release unless someone can find a little over 20 trillion to help the US, the usual suspects are out of cash and I reckon Russia will not offer help either. Consumers have a total accumulated debt that surpasses a trillion and the bad news keeps on stacking up. All because politicians were playing the ‘screw it’ card. Now that the ledgers are up for grabs the US is sitting in the worst spot it has been in in well over a century and corporate and business America is looking for any way out of the US at present. 

When you see that image and you add the failures of Microsoft a different image comes to mind and it is not a pretty one. So why Microsoft? Because it is part of the Dow Jones Index. It might only be for 4.9% but when that goes south the DJI will see a much larger problem. You see it is not merely Microsoft, it becomes an issue for Goldman Sachs as well and when the dollar collapses. What do you think that places like UnitedHealth Group, Johnson & Johnson, VISA, American Express and Walmart will be left with? When over 150 million will have no money left the consumers pushing the aforementioned companies up will also fade pushing rates and results down. All things that could have been seen will over 2-3 years ago. And there is no blaming the Russian-Ukrainian war, this would have happened no matter what. Optionally it happened sooner, but not much sooner. 

Even if ‘A good day’ was the start, the settings have been in place for years. I believe the media merely looked the other way, because the other view was sexy and optionally offered more digital dollars, another funny money business. 

So am I wrong?
That is the question. I could be and relating articles like I am is to some degree folly, but it was all I had at the time. And if there is an economic person (I am not one) giving us a clear answer why I am wrong, I would accept that, but there are too many issues in the field and there are too many issues out in the open. I wonder if anyone could counter them all. But I will keep my eyes open to see if someone goes that way.

Anyway, have a great day and I am about to start the final day of the weekend.

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July 3, 2022 · 21:51

Appeal to the lazy

There was a man who suddenly reached out. Making claim that he was wealthy and important, which was the first red flag. You see important people assume that others know that they are important. The only thing I had to do to get $10 million was to admit that my IP wasn’t real. Well there are two problems, one is that people offering me $10M usually do not have two coins to rub together, the second part is that I am not some grifter. I worked hard to get the IP I have (if brainpower represents hard work), the second part is that if I would be willing to send over the IP, he would sign an NDA and give me free of charge a value estimate. So how stupid does that dodo think I am? This is why I set the IP to encryption and place it on 4Chan, in the first I can prove that I uploaded them and if it gets to October 1st, well over a dozen people will see the puzzle and if they solve it, the IP is theirs. If I can’t cash in, I will make it public domain and let the fates show who is worthy. And with close to a million people a day posting, my posts (which I put there with a  Japanese profile) will welcome the stuff of legends. The 5G, the setting of consoles and several other IP are there and protected. It is like trying to find a needle in a mountain of needles and as the encryption is one that requires a human touch, I doubt any AI (or claimed AI) can find it. The first step in avoiding a trap is to know what the trap looks like and no AI faced this before, so whomever tries to dissect EVERY picture will face a task with billions of images and that is if you do not stumble upon some Russian encrypted images first. It will be fun watching the witch hunt from a distance, way distant as my systems have never been on or will go on 4Chan, to avoid some trail. 

What is interesting is the approach they made, like it was their bread and water, like it is all they live for. I actually do not know anyone (at last not alive) who makes their cash swindling. They are usually caught early in whatever scam they perform. So it might be a new player, or someone only pretending to be a grifter, there is option three that this person is really good, but the talk I had did not reveal a person overburdened by intelligence. And going by the setting that I put a niche market valued at $1B-$5B online for the quick Public Domain players, his setting is even weirder. He was apparently not aware of what I had done. This basically means that this man had not done his homework. And speaking of homework, I saw some news that involved Saudi Arabia. In one place we see ‘Mizkif cancels Saudi Arabian sponsorship deal after Twitch conversation with Hasan’ and it is here “Fans were quick to criticise Mizkif for initially agreeing to the sponsorship.

Going live on Twitch mere minutes after the information leaked, Mizkif claimed he knew nothing about any country’s controversies.” Now I have no issue with anyone cancelling getting paid, but consider “Hasan filled Mizkif in on Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Yemen Civil War, along with its various domestic conflicts.” The few facts:

  1. Iran is actively involved.
  2. Houthis have stopped UN support to people.
  3. Houthi’s use children in their war.

And in finality, Saudi Arabia only got involved when their help was called for by a legitimate elected government. Are there errors that involve Saudi Arabia? Most likely this is a war, errors will be made on both sides, Yet the western media have trivialised Houthi drone attacks on Civilian targets in Saudi Arabia. They trivialised the actions by both Houthi and Iranian players on Yemen and on Saudi Arabia. I wonder if this Hasan told Mizkif all that. I would accept a sponsorship and create these news-cycles on YouTube, but I reckon that Google and the media would make sure that almost no one ever saw them. The game is rigged and it implies that some players have a bigger goal in mind and it is not the Yemeni people. After 8 years not that many Yemeni people remain. And the article ended with ““I’m not doing it, I didn’t know the realities of what it was,” Mizkif proclaimed.” Another player not doing his homework. And that I all I have on this situation. Mizkif made a choice and changed his mind. Fine! Whether I agree does not matter, it was his choice to make. An other person, named Asmongold from that environment gave us “After learning more about the Saudi Arabia Fortnite sponsorship that fellow OTK founder Mizkif accepted but later backed out of, Twitch streamer Asmongold says he would take the deal regardless of the controversy—as long as he didn’t have to travel.” You see, Mizkif loses out now and Asmongold optionally steps in. I do not believe that this has anything to do with ethics, or standards. If that was true, several banks would lose billions in revenue, Wall Street would have to bar Goldman Sachs and a few other players. Yet that does not happen, does it? So why do we attack Saudi Arabia at every turn? Because they are an Islamic nation? Islamic nations represent well over 25% of the planets population, in addition christian nations have committed genocide 15 times over, how many cases of genocide can you show for islamic nations? Not that many I guess. Yet in the meantime I will continue creating more IP. I will show show this man who called himself Arthur that being a grifter is the loneliest and least rewarding stage of life. And whilst we wonder what one does with the other, consider that the media seemingly decides who is worthy, a choice that you were denied, as such my 4Chan solution is just fine. They can only stare in the distance when it slips by and that is more rewarding than the fake $10M offered. Remember a promise and an empty sack is worth the empty sack. A crude but decently wise stage we should consider.

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