Tag Archives: Japan

June 9, 2025 · 20:23

At the right time

That is what we all seek (if we can afford it), that golden ticket that is out in the open and we are in time to grab it. I get it, it is not easy and you need to have feelers out, but that is at time the setting we face. For example, Disney Golden Oaks has had his new park settings with residences and houses out there for almost a year. This is nothing bad. The places look amazing and when you are approaching retirement, or a life setting where you get to enjoy life at least three months a year (basically before the Trump era) nearly everyone who has the money would grab something like that. They are still taking orders, so there is space. I am not criticizing the setting. Disney has made enormous strides with their Golden Oaks and these places are top notch. The setting that the Four Seasons is there as well, merely adds charisma and flavor to that place. So what gives?

You see, the Emirati News Agency WAM, gives us (at https://www.wam.ae/en/article/15l6shd-aldar-announces-launch-day-sell-out-all-133-homes) a simple setting. They give us ‘Aldar announces launch day sell-out of all 133 homes at Waldorf Astoria Residences’ a setting where we see a launch day sell out? Don’t get me wrong, I cannot afford living there, so I don’t feel sad. I had my eyes set on Sama Yas (which I cannot afford either) but at least it is more affordable than either two. And lets be clear onboard this, as America slides down to a near third world stage, would you want to live in Orlando? Yas Island will be the new Saint Tropez. With its 4 theme parks (soon to be 5) and Warner Brothers being busy to add the world of Harry Potter to their Arsenal, that place will be da bomb (as the expression goes). Ferrari World, The Yas Mall (not as big as the Dubai Mall), but a cracker of a mall. WaterWorld with slides, lazy river and all, SeaWorld which might be the most impressive water zoo you have ever soon and the Warner Brothers Theme park, soon to include these rascals from Hogwarts. And in (an expected) 2027 Disney will grace that place too. So what is there to hesitate over? Well the 133 new owners of their Waldorf Astoria Residences had that same idea and on launch day it all sold out. The first ever branded residential development on Yas Island generating AED 850 million in sales. That almost a billion amounts to $232 million, which amounts to a little under $2 million per unit, there are different sizes, so the small ones are cheaper, the big ones larger and Golden Oaks gave us the setting that they started at 5 million. So it is a win in several ways. And it gets better if you get the Yas Annual Diamond pass, which gives you unlimited Quick Pass Access at all Yas Theme Parks and offers unmatched benefits, such as 25% off dining, shopping, and more. Plus, you’ll receive early park entry, special events, and exclusive member-only experiences. And the price (at present) is $900 a year, with all these benefits you would be crazy not to get it, especially as it gives 25% on loads of stuff, even in the Yass Mall. For an entire year? That pass will earn itself back in less than a month. As such, I reckon that the price goes up when Disney is added to the flavour. And as there are free busses all over Yas Island, the need for a car becomes debatable.

So in that world where does Orlando stand? Nowhere as I see it and Abu Dhabi has a lot more to offer. As I personally see it theme parks in America are soon done and when the economy collapses (which is likely to be this year) there will not be any reason to go to America. So when you consider these news clippings that America is crawling up from the mud, consider that the Economic times gave us 4 hours ago ‘Adrian Mowat on why non-US assets are becoming more appealing than US equities & bonds’ you’re seeing merely a first and as the pressures on Yas Island to expand is clearly seen in many ways, we will need to consider that America is close to done for. 17 hours ago we were given ‘Half of the bond market is US Treasuries. Why it’s ‘not healthy.’’ Remember that I talked about the dangers of Japan or China dumping the bonds they have and the other one following suit as not too be left with (what I personally speculative see) as toilet paper. Well this is a first sign. The entire Waldorf Astoria setting was out in the open and it is gone on launch day. Orlando never pulled that off, not even when they were the luxury height of the residence markets. As such the oligarchs, the billionaires and others will soon get their own place there and perhaps several already have their place. In addition, the UAE is a zero tax nation, well not exactly, but you do not pay income tax, so the money you get is the money you get to spend and with a Diamond card it gets to be even cheaper. Don’t think you are stuck there. The high speed train ride takes you to either place in 30 minutes, so breakfast in Dubai and Dinner in Abu Dhabi (or the other way round) becomes a reality, although I was unable to find prices, but a normal train going at half the speed is also an option, as such you would be in a train for an hour.

As I see it the UAE is not merely making waves, they are an economic tsunami about to unleash their good times and as I see it America (Europe too) will face the economic onslaught it makes on both of them and as I see it, with the F1 also on Yas island, the setting gets to me almost embarrassing for America. And feel free to look at the Abu Dhabi videos on YouTube done by hundreds of visitors. A city that is clean, safe and spacious. What more do you need? The article ends with “Commenting on the sales performance, Jonathan Emery, Chief Executive Officer at Aldar Development said: “The sell-out of Waldorf Astoria Residences Yas marks a significant milestone for Aldar and highlights the attractiveness of Yas Island both as an investment destination and prime residential address. As the island’s first branded residential offering, its overwhelming success is a strong indicator of the rising demand for luxury, hospitality-led living in Abu Dhabi and the universal appeal of the Waldorf Astoria brand.”” As such I wonder what will come next, because the intake of wealthy residents is merely at a start this implies that Abu Dhabi is looking at 3-5 new settings and as the Satellite photos show, between Zayed International Airport and Yas Island are several large ‘plots’ that might be the setting of more. The influx of wealth and economic good times are setting a new era for the United Arab Emirates and Abu Dhabi. Did anyone consider that when billionaires see new grounds, they tend to go from other places? Where does that leave America? You see, you can spin all you like, but when the wealth walks away they might be left with merely a dozen wealthy people and President Trump is not that rich, so when Elon Musk leaves, the expression about rats leaving the sinking ship comes to mind. Oh, by the way, I am not calling Elon Much a rat, or implying that he is leaving. But I think the setting comes across to all my readers (and its not my mum, cause she is dead).

A larger setting is coming to the shores of America and I have stated that as warnings for over the last 2 years at least, so whilst we now get “‘‘Death spiral’ nears as US debt service costs reach ‘unsustainable’ levels’” (source: Sky News) consider that I stated this danger es early as October 4th 2021 in ‘Utter insanity’ referring back to an article I wrote in 2013, it has been this long that the media could have informed you. Did they? Oh and the fact that October 4th is also World Animal Day is merely icing on the cake. I like my irony with a sweet tooth. I am a victim of circumstance. Still, the setting was clear years ago, you merely needed to learn to use an abacus, something that has been around for over 3000 years, no super computer needed.

So have a great day and enjoy your morning coffee in Toronto this morning (it is 06:00 there).

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Tagged as Abu Dhabi, Adrian Mowat, Aldar Development, Asia, China, Diamond pass, Disney Golden Oaks, Dubai, Elon Musk, Emirati News Agency WAM, F1, Four Seasons, Japan, Jonathan Emery, Orlando, Sama Yas, Sky News, travel, UAE, Waldorf Astoria, Warner Brothers, Yahoo Finance, Yas Island, Zayed International Airport

May 31, 2025 · 12:46

All dressed up

Yup, that is an old expression, I heard it somewhere in the 80’s and if you know, you know. If not, you might figure it out during this article. The setting has been revised before, but now (at https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/north-carolina-and-oregon-unite-with-florida-new-york-nevada-arizona-california-alaska-as-canadian-travel-to-the-us-plunges-this-april-amid-political-backlash-and-tourism-boycott/) we get a more direct setting. We are told ‘North Carolina and Oregon Unite with Florida, New York, Nevada, Arizona, California, Alaska as Canadian Travel to the US Plunges This April Amid Political Backlash and Tourism Boycott’ it seems trivial and that site is, but it is merely one side of this. We are given “Canadian travel to the United States has plunged this April as North Carolina and Oregon unite with Florida, New York, Nevada, Arizona, California, and Alaska in reporting steep declines in visitor numbers from their northern neighbor—an alarming shift fueled by mounting political backlash, a growing tourism boycott movement, and rising disillusionment among Canadian travelers over the current state of U.S. affairs”, as well as “Canadians are now increasingly choosing alternative destinations, citing concerns over the political climate, cultural discomfort, safety perceptions, and dissatisfaction with immigration experiences.” And this is merely the start. Travel Tour World gives assisting data. We are given “According to official data, land travel from Canada to the U.S. dropped by 35.2% in April 2025 compared to the same time last year, while air travel declined 19.9%, marking one of the most significant cross-border travel retreats in recent memory” And it gets to be worse, for that we look towards the story (at https://www.cubaenmiami.com/en/expertos-temen-por-las-perdidas-economicas-que-pueden-traer-la-reciente-disminucion-del-numero-de-turistas-internacionales-en-estados-unidos/) there we get “According to a report by Oxford Economics, unfavorable perceptions regarding trade and immigration policies are causing international tourists to choose other destinations, which could result in an $8.5 billion drop in foreign visitor spending in the United States this year. The decline in travel, which represents a roughly 5% drop compared to the previous year, is due to a decrease in foot traffic. According to Aran Ryan, head of industry research at Tourism Economics, an affiliate of Oxford Economics, international visits to the United States are expected to decline by nearly 9% this year, according to a report released last week.” This is not all, in addition we see “The United States could experience a loss of $21 billion in tourism-related revenue this year if current trends continue, according to estimates by the U.S. Travel Association. According to the trade group, every 1% reduction in international tourist spending represents an annual loss of $1.8 billion for the U.S. economy. Furthermore, experts indicated that a strong U.S. dollar could be driving away international visitors.” Even though only Canada is ‘sifted’ out, the European losses could be close to equally large. I saw this yesterday in a YouTube video on the Epic Universe. The literal quote was “There is no-one here” and this is in the opening month of one of the most desirable theme parks I have ever seen. The damage could be a little bigger than the news we are getting. I saw two restaurants where little to no people are seen and in one case they were the only customer. This is a sight I have never have seen before in any theme parks and this one looks a lot better then most I ever saw with my own eyes. I don’t wish this on anyone and where are the people going? Well, my bet is that Abu Dhabi in the UAE on Yas Island will be raking in the cash. The people decided on another place and as Canada, Europe, Australia and New Zealand decide to seek greener grounds the sands of the United Arab Emirates might be the greenest grass of all. Even as we get one source giving us that “Walt Disney secures future of Euro Disney with €1bn refinancing”, I am drawn to the setting that this is not the destination of many who abandoned the idea of getting theme park rushes in America. I guessed that these people might be going towards Tokyo and its Universal, but the drop of 4% gives me pause to dig deeper there and I am considering that most went to the UAE and the numbers from Gulf Business (kinda) prove me correctly with “International visits to the theme parks also saw significant growth, with a 40 per cent, rise, led by a substantial increase from key markets, including India, China, the UK and Russia” and there I wonder if they investigated the stream of Canadian and European visitors. Yet 40% increase is not nothing, it is huge, especially as America is looking to a drop of well over $21,000,000,000 in business and that is not including all the bed and breakfast and fast food locations that usually see a much larger interest during these days. The tariff and 51st state mentions will be taking its toll on America a lot sooner than they think. I reckon that European (Australians too) will decide that Canada is a much better place to be than America, as such this coming winter Aspen will dealing with a zero minutes queue time at the slopes. This means that America is looking towards a two dreadful seasons, summer and winter. We can speculate how large this becomes, but there is no real data on this and the bulk of the people will not see these results until springtime 2026. Anything earlier is loaded with inaccuracies as the data they have been training on was never captured to the degree it needed and some form of forecasting analysis (the process of using historical data, trends, and statistical methods to predict future outcomes) as it is based on achieved data and this has never happened before in America going back to the before the 80’s, as such there is no forecasting settings and it needs to be done on actual data captured now, and these results are not looking good. Even if it is a ‘mere’ 21 billion, over 8-9 states the impact is nothing short of disastrous and America was never in that great a shape anyway. This is propagated by the real time risk of two nations dumping their bonds before they have the value of toilet paper (yes, China and Japan) and even whilst Japan has the largest amount and they are hanging on, they do know that if China is pushed to dumping their bonds, Japan will be racing to get there as son as possible, merely to safe some of their value. Considering the escalations that the BBC reported on a mere 10 hours ago, there is a chance (a small one) that China will respond by dumping the US Treasury bonds they have and that is pretty much a sequential set in ending the American economy. This America Administration will not be able to recover from that and whilst the Chinese portfolio is set to US$765.4 billion, which is 20 billion than a month ago. They might be gambling that Japan tries to drop their $1.13 trillion ($1,300,000,000,000) bond, especially as their own debt is now a debt-to-GDP at 260% and the Bank of Japan already owning more than half of outstanding Japanese government bonds, as it seems (according to people with the economic knowledge and foresight) that Japan is boxed in. Should China dump their bonds they could gain America and Japan at the same time. A sight never seen before in our history. So what does this have to do with tourism? Everything. You see if America cannot pay its debts, America becomes the third world country no one wants to visit and that makes it a nasty place within months. America has around 22 million millionaires. I recon that at least 15 million will get out in time, the rest is not ‘rich’ enough and those with a jet (around 15,000 of them) will go to any country that will take them and they will move fast. The rest? That is anyones guess. It reminds me of that B-movie where the wealthy and refuge in a theme park as it is the only one with enough food and security to make it last. But that is an overly dark (and unrealistic) setting. What is a given that these people will seek a safer haven, because America won’t be one for decades to come.

Still, the first setting is tourism and that setting is under increasing pressures. And as I personally see it, it wasn’t President Trump who set this of, it was the short sighted views (my personal take on this) of Governor Ronald Dion DeSantis who chased away $1,000,000,000 in investment settings in Florida, that was the start. We saw a whole lot of anti woke and anti LGTBQ settings making Europeans (and likely Canadians) weary of safety issues in Florida, which would have impacted both Disney, Universal and Warner Brothers. That was as I saw it the start and the tariffs merely escalated that setting. The damage would have been horrific if Warner Brothers Abu Dhabi had started their Harry Potter park expansion a year earlier, yet as it stands it is now kinda set for a late 2026 opening. And as Disney is coming there too the bad news for Florida keeps on adding to the larger picture. That and as the UAE is one of the safest places in the world, the appeal of the UAE is easily spotted. That is besides the fact that Abu Dhabi has 4 theme parts and one of the largest luxurious malls in the world (right behind the Dubai Mall). The additional setting that you can travel from Abu Dhabi to Dubai in a mere 30 minutes by train, the appeal is close to complete. The zero tax setting that the UAE offers is a mere cherry on their yummy pie.

That is what American tourism was facing all along and now with the tariff wars the escalations are debilitating whatever was left of American tourism future, because if you are willing to fly to Florida, the idea that flying to the UAE for close to the same amount would be a desiring call for any tourist that wants something new. So if you want to dress up, you might as well try an Emirati Kandura, looking good and looking different, having that real vacation feeling that you might never have had before.

Have a great day and consider where you might want to go and where you could go, especially for those who are sick of Americans referring to Canada as the 51st state and the Europeans who are not too happy on America annexing 2.166 million km².

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Tagged as Abu Dhabi, Australia, Bank of Japan, Canada, China, DeSantis, Disney, Disney world, disneyland, Europe, Governor Florida, Harry Potter, Japan, New Zealand, Oxford Economics, Sea World, theme-parks, Tourism, travel, Travel Tour World, UAE, Universal, US treasury bonds, Warner Brothers, Water World, Yas Island

May 30, 2025 · 15:34

The size of that

Something no woman has ever sad to me, but that is for another day. You see, the story (at https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/saudi-arabias-ai-co-humain-looking-for-us-data-center-equity-partner-targets-66gw-by-2034-with-subsidized-electricity/) In this DCD ( Data Center Dynamics) gives us ‘Saudi Arabia’s AI co. Humain looking for US data center equity partner, targets 6.6GW by 2034 with subsidized electricity’ and they throw numbers at us. First there is the money “Plans $10bn venture fund to invest in AI companies”, which seems fair enough. But after that we get “The company said that it would buy 18,000 Nvidia GB300 chips with “several hundred thousand” more on the way, that it was partnering with AWS for a $5bn ‘AI Zone,’ signed a deal with AMD for 500MW of compute, and deployed Groq chips for inference.” I reckon that will split and split again, the shares of Nvidia. Then we get the $5 billion AI zone and then the AMD deal for 500MW of compute and deployed Groq chips for a conclusion reached on the basis of evidence and reasoning. Yes, that is quite the mouthful. After that we get a pause for the “How much of Humain’s data center focus will be on Saudi-based facilities is unclear – its AMD deal mentions sites in the US.” As such, we need to see what this is all about and I am hesitant to mention conclusions for a field that I am not aware of. Yet, the nagging feeling is in the back of my mind and it is jostling in an annoying way. You see, lets employ somewhat incorrect math (I know it is not a correct way). Consider 18,000 computers draining the energy net of 500 watt per system per second. That amounts to 9,000 GW energy (speculatively), and that is just the starting 18,000. As such the setting will be several times the amount needed for fueling these AI centers. Now, I know my calculations are widely of and we are given “At first, it plans to build a 50MW data center with 18,000 Nvidia GPUs for next year, increasing to 500MW in phases. It also has 2.3 square miles of land in the Eastern Province, which could host ten 200MW data centers.” I am not attacking this, but when we take into consideration that amount of energy requirements for processors, storage, cooling and maintaining the workflow my head comes up short (it usually does) and the immediate thought is where is this power coming from? As I see it, you will need a decently build Nuclear reactor and that reactor needs to be started in about 8 hours for that timeline to be met. Feel free to doubt me, I already am. Yet the needed energy to fuel a 66GW Data centre of any kind needs massive power support. And the need for Huawei to spice up the data cables somewhat. As I roughly see it, a center like that needs to plough through all the spam internet it gets on a near 10 seconds setting. That is all the spam it can muster in a year per minute (totally inaccurate, but you get the point). The setting that the world isn’t ready for this and it is given to us all in a mere paragraph.

Now, I do not doubt the intent of the setting and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is really sincere to get to the ‘AI field’ as it is set, but at present the western setting is like what builder thought it would be and overreached (as I see it) and fraudulently set the stations of what they believed AI was and blew away a billion dollars in no time at all (and dragged Microsoft along with it) as they backed this venture. This gives me donut (which I already had) on the AI field as the AI field is more robust as I saw it (leaning on the learnings of Alan Turing) and it is a lot more robust then DML (Deeper Machine Learning) and LLM (Large Language Models), it really is. And for that I fear for the salespeople who tried to sell this concept, because when they say “Alas, it didn’t work. We tried, but we aren’t ready yet”, will be met with some swift justice in the halls of Saudi Arabia. Heads will roll intuit instance and they had that coming as I foresaw this a while before 2034. (It is 2025 now, and I am already on that page).

Merely two years ago MIT Management gave us ‘Why neural net pioneer Geoffrey Hinton is sounding the alarm on AI’ and there we get the thing I have warned about for years “In a widely discussed interview with The New York Times, Hinton said generative intelligence could spread misinformation and, eventually, threaten humanity.” I saw this coming a mile away (in 2020, I think) You see, these salespeople are so driven to their revenue slot that they forget about Data verification and data centers require and ACTUAL AI to drag trough the data verifying it all. This isn’t some ‘futuristic’ setting of what might be, it is a certainty that non-verified data breeds inaccuracies and we will get inaccuracy on inaccuracy making things go from bad to worse. So what does that look on a 66GW system? Well, for that we merely need to look back to the 80’s when the term GIGO was invented. It is a mere setting of ‘Garbage In, Garbage Out’ no hidden snags, no hidden loopholes. A simple setting that selling garbage as data leaves is with garbage, nothing more. As such as I saw it, I looked at the article and the throwing of large numbers and people thought “Oh yes, there is a job in there for me too” and I merely thought, what will fuel this? And band that, who can manage the see-through of the data and the verification process, because with those systems in place a simple act of sabotage by adding a random data set to the chain will have irreparable consequences in that data result.

So, as the DCD set that, they pretty much end the setting with “By 2030, the company hopes to process seven percent of the globe’s training and inference workloads. For the facilities deployed in the kingdom, Riyadh will subsidize electricity prices.” And in this my thoughts are Where is that energy coming from?” A simple setting which comes with (a largely speculative setting) that such a reactor needs to be a Generation IV reactor, which doesn’t exist yet. And in this the World Nuclear Association in 2015 suggested that some might enter commercial operation before 2030 (exact date unknown), yet some years ago we were given that the active member era were “Australia, Canada, China, the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom), France, Japan, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States” there is no mention of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and I reckon they would be presenting all kinds of voices against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (as well as the UAE) being the first to have one of those. It is my merely speculative nature to voice this. I am not saying that the Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR) is a passively safe generation III+ reactor could not do this, but the largest one is being build by Hitachi (a mere 4500MW) and it is not build yet. The NRC granted design approval in September 2014, and it is currently not build yet. That path started in 2011. It is 2025 now, so how long until the KSA gets its reactor? And perhaps that is not needed for my thoughts, but we see a lot of throwing of numbers, yet the DCD kept us completely in the dark on the power requirements. And as I see it the line “Riyadh will subsidize electricity prices” does not hold water as the required energy settings are not given to us (perhaps not so sexy and it does make for a lousy telethon)

So I am personally left with questions. How about you? Have a great day and drink some irradiated tea. Makes you glow in the dark, which is good for visibility on the road and sequential traffic safety.

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Tagged as AI, Alan Turing, Australia, Canada, China, Data Center Dynamics, DCD, deeper machine learning, DML, ESBWR, Euratom, France, Geoffrey Hinton, Groq, Hitachi, Japan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, KSA, Large Language Models, LLM, New York Times, NRC, Riyadh, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United Kingdom, United States

May 25, 2025 · 00:15

When the setting fits

That is at times the thoughts we have. Now, let me be clear. This is pure speculation. It is speculation because I am not in politics (not even the shady kind) and as such it cannot be presumption. There is no best educated guess, there is merely a best guess and the setting fits several thoughts I have had in the past. It all seemingly fits. It doesn’t make it more true or more reliable.

That is something you need to keep in mind from the start and this was all set in motion through Reuters, who gave me in the first instance (at https://www.reuters.com/business/apple-pay-25-tariff-if-phones-not-made-us-trump-says-2025-05-23/) with ‘Trump threatens new tariffs on European Union and Apple, reigniting trade fears’ and here we see “U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on Friday to ratchet up his trade war again, pushing for a 50% tariff on European Union goods starting June 1 and warning Apple he may slap a 25% levy on all imported iPhones bought by U.S. consumers. The twin threats, delivered via social media, roiled global markets after weeks of de-escalation had provided some reprieve in the tariff battle. Major U.S. stock indexes and European shares fell and the dollar weakened, while the price of gold, a safe-haven for investors, rose. U.S. Treasury yields fell on fears about tariffs’ effect on economic growth.” A few thoughts came to mind. In the first “The twin threats, delivered via social media”, as such why not in an official setting? Why via social media? Is it because the threats might get rolled back? Is it because of non-repudiation? Then we get the Apple setting, why in America? Why is this so essential? (I will get back to this later on). And a few other thoughts are to mind. Then the article ends with “The president’s attack on Apple is his latest attempt to pressure a specific company to move production to the United States, following automakers, pharmaceutical companies and chipmakers. The United States, however, does not mass-produce smartphones – even as U.S. consumers buy more than 60 million phones annually – and moving production would likely increase the cost of iPhones by hundreds of dollars” keep this latest quote on the forefront of your mind for now.

Then Reuters gives us (at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-justice-department-reaches-deal-with-boeing-allow-planemaker-avoid-2025-05-23/) ‘US Justice Department reaches deal with Boeing to allow planemaker to avoid prosecution’ the two are actually more connected than you would think. Even as we are given “The agreement allows Boeing to avoid being branded a convicted felon and was harshly criticized by many families who lost relatives in the crashes and had pressed prosecutors to take the U.S. planemaker to trial. A lawyer for family members and two U.S. senators had urged the Justice Department not to abandon its prosecution, but the government quickly rejected the requests.”

Then last we get yet again from Reuters (at https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-seeks-fast-track-new-nuclear-licenses-overhaul-regulatory-agency-2025-05-23/) ‘Trump seeks to fast-track new nuclear licenses, overhaul regulatory agency’ with the subtext “U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday ordered the nation’s independent nuclear regulatory commission to cut down on regulations and fast-track new licenses for reactors and power plants, seeking to shrink a multi-year process down to 18 months.” All this sets a premise of revenue. Boeing, the reactors and last (which I gave first) was the tariffs. America is desperate for revenue and I reckon the setting of the Microsoft linked firm going bust after being evaluated for a billion dollars didn’t help his need. He needs all revenue to come from America and all made there. It isn’t merely America First, it is the speculated setting that America is about to default on its loans. Well that Is how I see it and I might be wrong. The entire setting with the added setting of Greenland and Canada is that he cannot claim that America has plenty of resources making it a lot more wealthy, for that he needed Greenland and Canada. No, now he needs to move it all to America and that is where the problem starts. Because America wasn’t ready for that move, but that is as the America administration sees it, the problem on (and for) Apple. As I see it, this is a speculated final move before the American President has to admit that payment deals need to be made and they want to push it back as far as they can as the number one fear is that others will massively dump their US Bonds and that would instantly call for the near complete dismemberment of the United States of Bankruptcy.

Could I be wrong?
Yes, I can be wrong. But this image seems to fit the partial shorts we have been able to see. The second option is that President Trump has completely lost it, but I do not think so. Too many settings don’t fit that view of him. Yet the knee-jerk reactions to keep on being seen as an “able to make payments nation” seems to fit the bill more. I reckon that the news last week regarding that Builder.AI is now commencing insolvency proceedings was perhaps the drip that broke the camels back as the expression goes. It is before Saudi Arabia and others would be pumping money into the United States, so there is that to come as well. As they say money must flow and the actions done (especially regarding Boeing) is all about revenue, not about the family of victims. Then we loop back to January when President Trump announced ‘Trump announces a $500 billion AI infrastructure investment in the US’ here I speculate that this was all about some Microsoft setting, at least in part and now that Builder.AI has become insolvent and it was backed by Microsoft gives rise to the 500 billion being set on shaky grounds. It’s like looking at the Chrysler building seemingly coming closer to view until you realise that it was build on a quicksand. And they figure this out after the building was complete and now the top of that building is making the rest sink into the marsh. As I see it (which is presumption in this case), is as AI doesn’t exist, that they had made clever moves with DML (Deeper Machine Learning) and LLM (Large Language Models) and that requires programmers and some extended programming, but the deeper you set your teeth into the pie, the harder it is to open your mouth without coughing up the pie. And the bad decisions made with Builder.AI (I do not know what they did wrong, but that is what some media gives us, you can read that in yesterdays story).

When this goes wrong with 1 billion, what do you think that 500 billion gets you? There are only so many programmers who are adept in this form of programming and that is before all the data is validated, which if it fails makes for a totally new timeline and that is the crux of this setting.

But feel free to ignore these settings and see what happens. That I what I think is happening. Microsoft fell short and others might not be in the market for such a failure and when the 500 billion stays away foreclosure of the land of the forsaken and the home of the arrogant falls flat.

Here in all this I might be wrong, I admit that upfront. The question that comes to mind. What is it? Why do we get such a knee-jerk operation from left to right and from beginning to end. Now we get the news that is 15 hours old. ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) gives us ‘Reserve Bank on high alert for economic fallout as Donald Trump continues to spook investors’ If I am correct than this act is merely for the ones that holds these bonds will keep on holding on to them. And the second setting is “The bond market is now regularly questioning the value and stability of US government debt.” As I see it, the nightmare scenario for President Trump. He cannot pay anything over 10% of 36 trillion. When that happens America defaults on its loans. The nightmare that Wall Street fears. As we are given “In the lead-up to the passage of the bill through the US House of Representatives, the US Treasury Department tried to secure $16 billion of funding through the sale of 20-year bonds. It found the auction harder than usual to execute due to a lack of demand from investors.” And as I see it, making the other funds ‘more’ dodgy will work for the American administration and as such are the actions that I am seeing. Not because they are great actions. It is bullying not to go somewhere else and I admit that this is merely speculation.

I leave it up to you do decide if I am right or if I have a case for my train of thought. But this is what I see, merely because I have been looking in this direction all along. And Moody’s downgrade, US debt had become riskier for the lender. That is a simple conclusion you can all consider to get behind. But if that is the case, the outstanding bonds are a bad bet because these bonds do not get reassessed, that is the bad bet they went into and the next step we get is when Moody’s set the credit from AA1 to AA2. But what happens after? I don’t think that the holders of these bonds will wait that long. They will sell wit a loss as not to see there bonds become ‘Junk’ material and those people will lose a hell of a lot of money. Consider Japan as it is with the debts they have also have around $1.13 trillion in US bonds and China holds $784 billion. If China dumps their US bonds, Japan will be force to do the same as not to lose too much money, but the investors were already shy of the last auction and that was only for $16,000,000,000. Now we see that there is a risk that China sets 50 times that amount up for auction as such Japan is seeing the pressure to act before it is too late as it has almost twice the amount of China and the first of these two might get some money back. The one that flinches losses it nearly all.

How would you see such a risk? And that with the Reuters articles made me speculatively realise that America is in a lot oof hot water at present, but my view is speculative. I have no hard data to back my thoughts, be aware of that. By the way, there is a second reason for the reactors, but I’ll let you work that one out for yourselves.

Have a somewhat great day.

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May 21, 2025 · 19:28

What’s in a brand?

That is at times the question. Most of the world was to sink their claws into Saudi Arabia and we see all kinds of settings, some speculative, some going for the worst. The truth is that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is on the rise. Not merely because they are doing well (they really are), but the massive secondary reason is that they are a no-debt zone, just as the UAE is. So as we se that America is $46 trillion in debt, the EU has a debt of 14 trillion euro and Japan has a $9 trillion debt. Yet as the Telegraph a mere three hours ago gave us all ‘‘Worse than Greece’: The debt crisis threatening to blow up the global economy’ (at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/21/trump-sparked-debt-crisis-could-blow-up-global-economy/) the truth is (speculative) that I personal believe that America is in a worse state, even as the America administration is in denial and the media is massively avoiding reporting on it. I personally think that the network of Stake holders is con spiritually involved as well. As I see it (based on the work of Cathryn van Kessel) that ‘(Con)spirituality as a curriculum of immortality’ is set to “If we are listening to marketing hype, it seems that—with enough money—we can live longer, healthier lives. These products, however, are often no more than consumerist swindling steeped in pseudo-science and pseudo-spirituality. When viewed through the lens of terror management theory (TMT), mitigating the harms of (con)spiritual grifts is more than a problem of a lack of scientific literacy, anti-consumer education, and media literacy.” My personal view is set to the premise of “mitigating the harms of (con)spiritual grifts is more than a problem of a lack of scientific literacy, anti-consumer education, and media literacy, it is a (sort of) given setting that the stakeholders are dwindling the settings of parameters and changing the premise of given values, creating confusing hype settings” This is merely a personal view, but it seemingly fits the patterns we see, or tend to recognise.

So as such we see “Because the assets that the country holds are still far more valuable than the debts. All the land, mineral rights, water, etc.” and this shows the pressures to add Greenland and Canada to America, as such they wouldn’t be considered bankrupt. Another version is “Because debt payments are still manageable” but here time is running out, as such the Trump administration is playing the bully card on Canada and Greenland. But here the dance becomes a problem as Canada is not giving in as it is part of the Commonwealth. And that is why Keir Starmer as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is being catered to by the EU as the WU is in a similar predicament and the UK ‘re-joining’ the EU, the EU ends up with a credit card that gets renewed value. But the larger truth is that time for these three are running out and as such they are courtesan themselves to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. And now we see the larger setting that the article ‘Saudi brands reach $116.8 billion in value fueled by energy, banking, and telecoms sectors’ (at https://brandfinance.com/press-releases/saudi-brands-reach-116-8-billion-in-value-fuelled-by-energy-banking-and-telecoms-sectors) gives us, and the values we see are “STC (brand value up 16% to USD16.1 billion)”, it is number two. Number one is Aramco (of course) and that is oil and I didn’t want to ‘taint’ the setting. After that we get “Almarai (brand value up 20% to USD4.7 billion)” but the third one is the kicker “Saudia (brand value up 34% to USD1.1 billion)” and here is the setting of three out of the ten that these are brands that have a 16%, 20% and 34% growth, totally unheard of in western settings and as such everyone wants in. Wall Street pretty much demand these new settings, but this is not on Wall Street, as such several brands (including me) are pretty desperate to get in. And I have made a few unsuccessful moves and I will totally try to do so again and again. I told a previous boss a few years ago that they had to get there now, now the going is good. But alas, it fell on deaf ears and now as brands in the EU, US and Japan are getting desperate we will see a total new stage of in-fighting and spading their opponents. But as they diminish one another, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will get the cream of the crop at a mere 65% of the total value, because the desperate will sucker themselves to get into the game as early as possible, hoping that the going is good early in the game. I get that, I would feel the same way (as a non-captain of industry that I merely my view) and now that China is entering these fields as well, the west is desperate to get in.

And at present we see little to no evidence how three players can have a cumulative debt of $70 trillion dollars. This is $70,000,000,000,000. Did you ever consider that the debt of these three is more than all the gold in the world? How is that possible? Is it because these three have the assets, because the debt is manageable? We think that we can all be a millionaire as long as we can couch up $55,000 in interest every year, but that is a debt without an end date, you pay as long as you live and that is not a realistic setting but these governments are telling you that story with the assistance of stakeholders (who get their own revenue out of that), yet at that point we ned to consider that you are a millionaire at $55,000 plus whatever the stakeholder charges and now it get to be a little iffy (aka yucky). It is a setting that is delusional, as such they all (desperately) need to be part of the Saudi branding, yet as I see it the Saudi’s have another view, you see STC gave us in 2024 “In 2023, we expanded our global footprint even further by acquiring a 9.9% interest in Telefonica and launching TAWAL operations in three European countries. Over the past year, STC Group has focused on diversifying our global offer to connect people across countries and continents.” They gave us that in March 2024, and the sphere of influence of Saudi Arabia is expanding. So whilst by an expected 2029 we might see brand X, but it is fueling STC for a larger and larger slice of the pie. As such it will all be co-owned by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and this is not white washing. It is merely business and these stakeholders will turn to the needs of their own paychecks more and more.

And this is not a dream story, it is not a nightmare story. It is about to become the reality of things and as such our paychecks go in part not to Telefonica, it will go to Tawal and through that to the STC. A simple business setting and for the most the media is will not inform you, it adheres to the needs of shareholders, stake holder and advertisers.

This is the power of branding and whilst we think that Nike, Lululemon and Jaguar are great brands, there is an underlying setting that the cool car is owned by Natarajan Chandrasekaran (chairman and Managing Director) and Saurabh Agrawal (CFO) (to some degree). And now we see the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expanding in all kinds of directions. In this I kinda set that stage in ‘An altering stage’ which I wrote on October 2nd 2023. I used the word ‘kinda’ as the focus was China and I wrote “It is a summary and you should read it. It shows several elements that are taking the world by storm. It is not “As shown in the latest IMF annual review of the country’s economy, progress has been most notably reflected in non-oil growth, which has accelerated since 2021, averaging 4.8 percent in 2022. Despite lower overall growth reflecting additional oil production cuts, non-oil growth will remain close to 5 percent in 2023, spurred by strong domestic demand.” We get the goods here, but it is “The economy’s non-oil growth has been spurred by strong domestic demand, particularly private non-oil investment. Sustaining this performance requires pursuing sound macroeconomic policies and maintaining the reform momentum, irrespective of developments in oil markets.” Even if the stage is not revealed, when combined with other views we see that ‘strong domestic demand’ is merely one string from the harp of economy, the harp of Saudi economy. What matters is that larger streams involving defence, technology, construction, tourism and services are ALL moving towards Chinese shores. We see some of it now, but that list is rapidly expanding and the next US vote is 45 days away with them having to brood on a loss of billions and it will be a lot more than 1 billion.” Which was a slightly different setting than the IMF reported on and I saw that two years ago. It is the story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/10/02/an-altering-stage/) which gives the goods, so consider that I had this at that point, so why didn’t the media see this over the last 17 months? Consider that before you lash out and wonder who you should blame.

Too many of us are kept in the dark and you should wonder why. You see I am not an economist or some savant. Yet I know data and I have parsed data for decades, and I saw a long time ago that the numbers didn’t add up. So wonder how the media could have missed it all. You were merely given slithers of data and until you consider the larger picture (which the bulk of the media will not give you) wonder why and it is not that it was to complex. As I personally consider the setting is that stake holders are part of the deception. Their cheques are too fat, so they like this game how it is played and they have been playing it for years.

Have a great day and remember, don’t trust all you read, verify the data you are given, even my data. I am not telling you to trust my data. If anything I am a little like Fox Mulder (from the X-Files) and trust no one, not even me.

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May 9, 2025 · 11:54

The end of defense

That is the setting that SBS (at https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/australias-big-question-in-donald-trumps-movie-tariff-threat/apjiwwsr0) invites us to consider. You see, in the eyes of the ‘true blue’ democrats, the message becomes You cannot set the stage to an orange overtly bully baboon and perhaps they actually had the right notion. At some point it is pointless to merely play the defensive stage. In Pencak Silat I learned decades ago that defense without offense if pointless and offense without defense is useless. So it is time to up the game. No matter how stupid the actions of President Trump are seen, the game needs a boost and he gave us the perfect reason. And as ‘their’ presentations give us, California is at present the richest area. As such the link gives us ‘Australia’s $767 million question in Donald Trump’s movie tariff threat’ there is an upside and a downside. You see, the Commonwealth might see this as an opportunity, consider the Australian acting community (Hugh Jackman, Chris Hemsworth, Cate Blanchett, Rose Byrne and many more), the Canadian (Ryan Reynolds, Nathan Fillion, Sandra Oh, Sarah Polley) and many more and last but not least the United Kingdom (Tom Hardy, Idris Elba, Tilda Swinton, Kate Winslet, Emma Thomson) and many many more, Agree that they will no longer work in American productions. They will seed the field for each others areas. So how long until the investors back away from America and Hollywood? How long until DC, Marvel and other franchises build their own studios (likely in Canada) outside of the US?

It isn’t fair on these people, my view is that they made with one film more than most people will ever make in their life. (I should know as I hoped that Matt Damon would pay me $3,000,000 post taxation for one of my scripts and I have always prided myself of being a fair return on investment). Still it is not really fair on them, but it is an offensive move and it is one I just came up with. I reckon that Canada and Australia have the ability to mirror the English setting and create two distinct area of expertise. If America gets desperate they could always fund the Nigerian movie industry who is almost dying to expand.

At this time (if enough people agree) America will get the White House under control with their desperate tariff settings. Consider that this President has shown to be a dictionary of two words (golf and tariff), as such I believe the time has come to start becoming proactive, this defensive actions to knee jerk reactions from Washington is upsetting the balance of established settings. The world is in too much trouble. At times this seems to be set to a old premise that a comedian gave us (I forgot his name). “Lets put all the extremists in one room, the extreme right and the extreme left and let them expire each other”, it is slightly radical but in this day and age it might just work.

So consider “This week, Trump announced he would be pursuing a 100 per cent tariff on all movies “produced in foreign lands”” next, consider that the bulk of the American movies get over 50%, sometimes as much as 70% from foreign lands. So should that be lessened by these tariffs? It is easy to think that it is all America, but that isn’t true. When all these non-American movie theaters pull their American settings, California becomes less in income than most other states and they still have the producing costs coming their way. In that time Canada and Australia grow their business and grow with aid from the UK. Then consider all the movies based on non-American scripts and novels. The setting enhances against America. A setting I saw within 600 seconds, so why aren’t the game play makers in politics?

Is my plan flawless? Never a lessened truth was that obvious, there are flaws which starts with the national movie industry, but it might be a first step in getting President Trump of all our backs and that is never a bad thing.

So as we seemingly embrace ““The movie industry in America is dying a very fast death. Other countries are offering all sorts of incentives to draw our filmmakers and studios away from the United States,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform over the weekend.” Is that our fault, or is that the fault of free driven wannabe’s in Movieland? I seemingly might be one of them with my script (and 3 more on the road to completion, which is a story for another day). Consider that at present is set to “The number of movie scripts registered annually varies, but a rough estimate is around 50,000 screenplays registered with the Writer’s Guild of America each year.” All whilst a mere 350 make it to the screen. So is this a numbers game, or is it a quality game? 50,000 scripts implies 136 scripts a day are pushed to some producer pool and they are tired, going for amounts, not for quality. All hoping for a next dime, but there is always a snag hitting up and they wonder why America’s movie industry is dying? I reckon that Netflix, Disney plus, and others aided in that impeding death.

It is time to up the ante and nationalizing our acting guilds, movie producing guild and studio guild might be the way to go go about this (might is the operative word) but the tariff game is over, apart from the small fact that America might be already too broke to consider another matter. Oh, and I never took the Korean or Japanese market in consideration, so the problem is worse for America. As I see it, the offensive game might become the way to go, even if it is the only way to consider that whomever gets into the White House has a much larger vocabulary and ‘tariff’ is not one of them words.

So feel free to disagree, but consider the setting the UK market has had for decades, Canada and Australia has shown to grow it in the last few decades and consider the stars you revere, are they all American?

Have a nice day, a great one if possible and reconsider the setting you are confronted with, what is the actual solution? I am not sure what is.

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May 9, 2025 · 04:58

Seek it in the dark

Yup, that is coming to your favourite room in your very own house at some point in time in the nearby future. It isn’t that it was a secret, but today I saw a reminder of what is about to happen on a near global scale and as summer is coming to the northern hemisphere, I reckon that life there might become a bit of a challenge. The news was given to me by CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/small-modular-reactor-nuclear-power-ontario-construction-1.7529338) where we see ‘Ontario set to begin construction of Canada’s 1st mini nuclear power plant’ and I actually didn’t consider Canada in my first assessment as the focal point in 2022 was America and the UAE. It was in my story ‘It was never rocket science’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/06/27/it-was-never-rocket-science/) where I re-iterated stories I gave in 2021 that America would be having an energy crises all by itself. At that point it was the BBC who gave us ‘Japan urges 37 million people to switch off lights’, which was a little bit of a shock in Japan. They never considered that energy has a finite point? I saw this escalation coming to places like Austin (Texas), Paris, London, New York and a few other places. I came up with a general solution for places like Dubai and Abu Dhabi, but the setting was clear. Action was required and I saw it in 2022. Now we get CBC telling us “It would be the first of four such reactors that OPG aims to build on the site, at a total project cost of $20.9 billion, in an effort to meet what’s forecast to be a steep rise in demand for electricity in the province”, as well as ““As it stands today, we just don’t have the supply to meet that demand,” Lecce said” according to Stephen Lecce, Ontario’s minister of energy and mines that point is coming for Canada. On the upside, Canada only has 40 million people. As such the drain might not be as severe as America has, but Canada is doing something about it, which pretty much means that America better start being nice to Canada (as well as take the 51st State BS out of their vocabulary) As I see it, if the power consumption rises a little too fast, there is little for Ontario to do but switch off the 24% delivery to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota. I don’t think New York needs that power, do they? Wasn’t it President Trump who told the world “We don’t do much business with Canada”, well, as I see it, they didn’t need Canadian energy, as such Canada can scrap the deliveries of energy. And as Elon Musk has what the world needs (something I stated before) and it will make e-Musk (little giggle) and that will make Elon one the first trillionaires on this world. He can start making cash (by the boatload). And as places like the UAE, Saudi Arabia and a few other places have larger wallets and a dire need for the solutions America gets to be number three (optionally number two as Saudi Arabia might not need it immediately) in a few places right of the bat.

So, the question for you all becomes. If I saw this in 2021/2022 why didn’t the rest of the world (read: America) see this? I set it out decently detailed, so it wasn’t rocket science to begin with and now that Canada is moving seemingly ahead of schedule, why haven’t other places locked on the problem? Merely to say “it was a complex situation and we are looking into the problem and see where notifications fell short”? If a data-man (like me) can see this evolve years ahead of schedule with an abacus, why can’t those boffins do that with super computers and AI (little teaser, AI doesn’t exist at this time).

In America KUT News gave its audience “On anniversary of Texas blackouts, ERCOT forecasts potential energy shortages in coming years”, which is fun as I said that years ahead of schedule and Austin successfully luring business to Austin (mainly from California) should have been ready already. So when solutions are implemented way too late it is the new policy to be able to find your desk in the dark, and work with pen and paper as desktops will also require power that isn’t there. And I get to gloat because it is just another instance where I warned people years in advance. I never warned Canada as I never saw it as an immediate hindrance and as I saw this morning Canada was ahead of the flock and ready to implement a solution.

So, when will the others wake up? In particular Mayor Eric L. Adams of New York as they require a jug of power from Ontario. As such they should have been looking at this and optionally being really nice to Elon Musk for the simple need of a discount.

What a way to get to Friday Breakfast early, have a great day everyone.

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May 4, 2025 · 03:24

The nature of things

It was about to weeks ago that I wrote ‘Regarding that joke’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/04/19/regarding-that-joke/). In that article I wrote “A setting we all saw coming (even though the media seems to ignore this and merely keeps on shouting tax the rich) and the interested parties who are supposed to keep the people informed are merely shouting that Haley Joel Osment was intoxicated instead of working on the news, the media is pretty much on the discarded bundle of wannabe news”, as well as “As one source told me (and others) “China could theoretically weaponise the US Treasury holdings – by dumping it – meaning that it would sell off treasury holdings for less than they are worth. By doing so, China would then, because of the amount it owns, devalue the US dollar” so what happens when the dollar gets devaluated to this degree?” That was two weeks ago. In the meantime “Trump had demanded of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that Japan eliminate its $70 billion trade surplus with the US. He claimed it would be easy. He repeated the demand during April 16 negotiations in DC. In response to all this, Japan tried to placate Trump, refused to cooperate with other nations suffering similar abuse, and asked for special exemptions for Japan at the expense of others. In fact, one of the reasons Trump chose Japan for the first round of trade talks was his belief that Tokyo would cave within a few weeks, thereby inducing others to do likewise.” (Source: several). Yesterday I thought I saw water burn (which is pretty freaky to say the least). Axios (merely one source) gives us ‘Japanese finance minister says selling U.S. bonds a “card on the table”’ with the yowza response “Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Friday that the country’s $1.13 trillion in Treasury holdings were a “card on the table” in trade talks, The Associated Press reported.” Talking about the tiger that feeds himself with your hand, and the added text becomes “Japan is one of the five largest U.S. trading partners, as well as a rock-solid ally in the region, so there was some surprise when the U.S. hit the country with a 24% reciprocal tariff in early April.” And now Japan puts the US bonds they have on the table and with more than one trillion in hand they could flood the market and push the dollar straight over the edge. If that happens no run on the bank will save people and America cannot come up with that much money to feed the hungry vultures, as such America now has a massive problem and it is not China pushing the cart, it is Japan itself who will not go gently into that good night. So on one hand we see “As U.S. Treasuries sold off last month and yields spiked, there was speculation foreign governments might be dumping bonds”, as well as “J.P. Morgan Private Bank, in a research note last week, said there were signs of foreign selling pressure, but from private holders, as opposed to governments “weaponizing” their holdings” which is fun as my blog article preceded the two by one week, so its not merely a sign of the day time reference, the planet moved 89,292 kilometers in the time that lapsed between me writing the blog and J.P. Morgan Private Bank coming to that same conclusion (it’s actually nice to use NASA metrics to make a case). All that and AP News giving us (at https://apnews.com/article/japan-treasurys-trump-tariffs-44b9b37bf7a290701201322f69bade2e) yesterday ““It does exist as a card, but I think whether we choose to use it or not would be a separate decision,” Kato said during a news show on national broadcaster TV Tokyo. Kato did not elaborate and he did not say Japan would step up sales of its holdings of U.S. government bonds as part of its talks over President Donald Trump’s tariffs on exports from Japan.”” The words from Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato to live by I say and when you combine this with the article I wrote two days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/05/02/saudi-arabia-goes-hiragana/) ‘Saudi Arabia goes Hiragana’ where we see that Japan basically has a way out to prevents its economy to become scuttled as well. As such the noose around its economical neck is diverted to a working solution. As I see it, America now gets that additional noose around its neck to double the efforts of the economy strangling itself (what a security measure).

As the grand vizier of Agrabah (in Aladdin) states “The idea has merit”, get economical advice from a Disney character? Oh, kill me now (I is havening to be laughing out loud at present) or as Monty Python states: ‘Howls of deriving laughter’ are mine and the tears are falling over my cheeks. I haven’t laughed this hard since my fathers funeral.

So this must be the most original way that a politician ever shoot its own foot

Americans might not be laughing as this is actually is devastatingly serious. The (as some call it) bully tactics are now starting to bite back and the bigwigs in Wall Street will be seriously moving assets with an additional passports to zero tax nations, perhaps one that also doesn’t have an extradition treaty with America. So if any of those get plane tickets out of America (people like Jerome Powell or Alan Greenspan), you get the idea. When people take that move, the setting is all over for America, there will be no more moves to make. And these people have been ‘diversifying’ their income for decades. They moved small amounts around the planet and they could survive on their millions and they might vacate their consultancy firm from Davos in the Desert to Davos, Switzerland (a mere example). So they were ready from the get go and with this situation they might have larger consultancy jobs in several nations (including Switzerland, Monaco and the UAE). So these people will just vacate Idiotville as some call it (that place between Canada and Mexico) as quick as their Beechcraft Premier can carry them. No lines, no waiting.

So, will Japan do this? I reckon it will depend on who controls President Trump, because as I see it, the man is basically a loose canon at present and with that level of knee jerks the financial world is pretty hesitant and frightened on what he might do next. That’s is basically what I personally see.

A setting that is a lot less nice than my weird personal dream I had on Friday involving a mall, a coffeeshop and me meeting Matt Damon and Ridley Scott (seeking a replacement voice for someone with a perfect Dutch accent), the weird snoozes and snores I tend to have.

The nature off things that we embrace, some will walk the path away from bully tactics, some are on the market for having financial independence and some are about getting out of the line of fire (or a location about to get carpet bombed). Whatever we do, we look out for number one (ourselves) and optionally (read: preferably)with improved comfort levels. What that is tends to differ from person to person and in the words of the great man Tony Curtis (Operation Petticoat) “In confusion, there is profit” a very acceptable stage for a lot of people with a calculating nature.

So have a great day and enjoy your coffee today (I had mine with a cookie this morning).

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May 2, 2025 · 03:40

Saudi Arabia goes Hiragana

That is the word, as we read Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.jp/en/uncategorized/article_146218/) with the headline ‘The dawning of a new era in Japan-Saudi Arabia relations’, there is no real puzzlement. As America goes on with its “We’re doing great”, often merely repeated in all the media, the reality is different ‘Too many ‘life long allies and great friends’ are seeking greener fields as they are in deep fear of getting scuttled alongside the good ship fairytale (oops America). So this article was not really a surprise. As we are given “Based on the idea of leading the international community from division to cooperation, I have decided to visit Saudi Arabia, which plays a crucial role for peace, stability and prosperity not only in the Middle East but throughout the world. Saudi Arabia has achieved some remarkable developments under Vision 2030, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, through undertaking extensive economic and social reforms, such as the diversification of industries and decarbonization. I believe that it is of great significance that my first visit to the Middle East as foreign minister of Japan is marked by this visit to Saudi Arabia.” This is not a love letter, but a setting of recognizing that Japan requires a more stable friend and optional long standing ally and Saudi Arabia likes the market of 125 million people. Not as much as America or Europe, but nothing to be sneered at and Japan sees the need for this union, if only to do something about the $8.84 trillion debt as of January 2025. They haven’t reached the point of no return yet and whilst everyone merely swallows the “we’re doing great line” Japan knows better and Iwaya Takeshi, Japans current Minister for Foreign Affairs sees opportunity for Japan and as we are given “Japan and Saudi Arabia are strategic partners that are this year celebrating the 70th anniversary of the establishment of their diplomatic relations. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1955, bilateral relations have developed in various fields. In particular, the friendly relations between the imperial family of Japan and the royal family of Saudi Arabia have been an important pillar.” This is continued with “In February, I signed with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan a memorandum for establishing a strategic partnership council, which will be chaired by the leaders of the two countries. This will be a vital framework to further strengthen our cooperation for the future of our two countries under the guidance of our respective leaders.” You might think this is all simple coating the setting, but it is not. You see Japan imports approximately $84.95 billion a year from America, with as I see it $3 billion in Organic chemicals, half a billion in Articles of iron or steel and $124 billion in Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers. Items they can get from the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, optionally without tariff and I reckon that in the setting of Vision 2030 Saudi Arabia will be really happy to supply and the latter part will be discussed below. They will not get it all, but that is a setting where America loses another $20,000,000,000 in revenue and they have such a good economy, they can lose this setting, no worries. Well, can they really?

You see, the second article (at https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Is-Saudi-Arabia-Preparing-for-Another-Oil-Price-War.html) OilPrice dot com gives us ‘Is Saudi Arabia Preparing for Another Oil Price War?’ The setting deteriorates for America. When we see “US benchmark WTI crude is down nearly 4% as Saudi Arabia reports emerge that not only can the Saudis sustain today’s low oil prices, but output increases are likely to be announced next week, for June output, sources speaking to both Reuters and Bloomberg have indicated. On Wednesday, Reuters cited five unnamed sources as saying that the Saudis have no intention of boosting oil markets with further supply cuts, as Riyadh’s budget can tolerate sustained low prices.” This is bad news for America, you see, they rely on the ‘profits’ and resale from the Brent Oil range of profit making and that is about to come under fire, even if it is only 3%-5%, that is a drain of a lot. As we are given “Oil had dropped over 2% amid demand worries and expectations of increased supply from OPEC+, with Saudi Arabia signaling it can tolerate lower prices and may push for more output at the May 5 meeting. Additional pressure came from growing production in non-OPEC nations like Guyana.” (Source: Trading Economics), we need to realise that another drop in revenue will make people relying on this push the panic button (even as Douglas Adams told them: ‘Don’t Panic’), I reckon that is not a venue that America will follow. And as Japan moves more and more to Saudi Arabia, the chance is that more oil will come from Saudi Arabia, as well as a lot more than the three topics I raised. So how much will America lose from their long standing friend and Ally Japan? Even at 10% the slowdown of the $84.95 billion a year will be close to immeasurable. I reckon that it could go up to an estimate max of 30% (which is a little over 25 billion), but add to that the shift in oil, it becomes serious money. As I see it Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud earned his daily dose of lamb shawarma today. (It might be chicken shawarma). There is a massive shift happening and as I see it, according to Irwin Stelzer of the Times, America is going strong, so how are these simple ‘facts’ overlooked? Too far in the future? The new memorandum was drawn up in February, and as I see it, these two giants (meaning Japan and Saudi Arabia) could set a beginning to scuttle the good ship America. This is not a given, but in a trade war it will be more than about getting more revenue on one side, it is the other side that is overlooked and as I see it, this partnership could definitely set ill winds to the barometer of the America economy.

So have a great day and enjoy your Sushi with Japanese Sobacha tea today.

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Tagged as Al Saud, America, Arab News, crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, Douglas Adams, economy, Europe, export, import, Irwin Stelzer, Iwaya Takeshi, Japan, Oilprice.com, politics, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Saudi Arabia, The Times, Trading economics, United States of America, USA

May 1, 2025 · 05:00

Marky Mark (PMMC for short)

Yup, the man, the plan and the action. I got to (kinda) know Mark Carny when I named him Marky Mark of the British Bank. The simplest reason is that England sees the need for certain people to be made into pop stars and Mark Carney fit that bill. When Brexit was going on, I was for a long time on the fence and what I read (hat he evidently said) put me square in the Brexit field. He did nothing wrong, he made no promises, but together with the actions of Mario Draghi I held in mind that Brexit was the only way for England to get things done. Let’s not forget that the desperate political moves of the other nations is why in part things went from bad to worse for England. It showed to me that the EU was petty and vindictive, but in all they never set a foot against Mario Draghi who became Prime Minister straight after that. Mark Carney did a good job (better then most I reckon) as such he has my respect. So now it should become Marky Mark of the Canadian side of the Commonwealth. Yet Canada is not so much on the pop star frame of mind, so Prime Minister Mark Carney it is.

So, what is going on here?
Yesterday we saw the BBC give us two parts towards the setting that Canada is facing and after giving my issues with America these last few days, but is time to set the view to the Northern Border, the homestead of the Maple Leafs and the place where Ice Hockey largely shines. In the first article we see ‘Carney wants to lead a G7 fightback on Trump tariffs’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx27d89z0qdo) which is much better then Prime Minister Anthony Albanese giving us that he wants to ‘talk’ about exemptions on trade barriers (good luck getting reelected in two days). Here we see “The global significance of Mark Carney’s election as Canadian Prime Minister is he now sits at the centre of an alternative pole of global economic thinking. Everything but Trump. There was a half expectation here that Carney would immediately sue for peace with President Trump when the polls closed on the election. It has emphatically not happened.” That is the making of a real consigliere (in stead of a counselee) and he is the consigliere of Canada, the one nation who has been bringing the fight to America (being called the 51st state helped), the bulk of the people think that polite is a form of appeasing to bullies and perhaps it partially is, but America crossed the line and Canada had enough of that and the rest of the Commonwealth (mainly me here) agree. As we see a larger Commonwealth uniting we now see the larger impact (and my personal favorite thought is that FiveEyes, will soon be Commonwealth Eyes, the intelligence alliance consisting of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, now without the United States). My second thought is that this will push the corrupt all over the world to the top as America will scramble to not be blind to the situation, which means they have to overspend a lot. Still, PMMC (Prime Minister Mark Carney is too long) gives us “PMMC is also very adept at understanding the nexus between markets and headlines. He made a number of announcements as PM about rethinking the purchase of US fighter jets, slightly changing the purchases of US government debt, all of which would have quickly focused some minds in the US” which might not be bad, but I reckon that the Commonwealth needs to come across uniting behind Canada, to offer whatever America did and take America out of the equation for the whole of the Commonwealth. We need to realise that India is a powerbroker of retail power and we aren’t using that enough. In addition Canada can fuel our oil needs replacing America even more. The plus for the others is that all the consumer needs for Alcohol will be fueled by its Commonwealth neighbors, I wonder it we have the automotive parts that Canada needs, so that they can continue work without skipping a beat. The UK has shipping (to a degree) and here the connection with Europe becomes important, which allows Canada to remove more of American influence. The simplest setting is that you cannot tariff what isn’t there and even as we get the quote “Underpinning this approach is absolute conviction that the US is making a mistake that will primarily and visibly backfire on itself, its companies, and its consumers. The fact the White House is attacking Amazon for “hostile acts” in publishing tariffs is a cast-iron example of this. President Trump’s gun is pointed primarily at his own feet, the thinking goes.” Whilst Canadians own PMMC gives us ““We’ll have a partnership on our terms. There’s a win-win possibility there, but on our terms, not on their terms,” he said. A key part of that is forging new strategic alliances elsewhere, with Europe, and the UK. “One would assume” that Canada and the UK could do a free trade agreement that has been stalled, he told me. Co-operation on defence and Canada’s abundant critical minerals is also on the table. He also dismissed President Trump’s territorial ambitions not just for his country, but Greenland and Panama too.” I would like to offer that a setting that a free trade agreement with Australia and New Zealand should be pursued (if it does’t exit) as these two brothers of Canada is only separated by the Pacific River. A nice thought is that this could fuel the passion of the Hawaiians to become truly independent and here Australia and Canada might be of assistance (for me the giggle point is that it allows America to become 49 states) and that is hilarious as it directly backfires on Trump, a new setting he never saw before (he has missed a lot in the last two weeks). But the BBC saved the best for last ““America’s leadership of the global economy is over” and that was a “tragedy”. Implicitly, he is saying, with the help of the rest of the G7, he will step up. And by an incredible quirk of fate, it is he who will host the G7 summit in Alberta in June, just days before the expiry of President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs pause. Will Trump attend on the land he both tariffs and covets?” As such it is nice that PMMC is on my page, I mentioned that America as a global economy leader was over close to two years ago when the debt crossed the point of no return and with revenues faltering the good ship lollipop (oops America) is drifting straight for the abyss, no anchor on the planet will stop that move. As I see it as we (Australia and New Zealand) increase options for Vancouver and its harbors will increase, which will fuel work and better options. So with the G7 and Canada, All roads lead to Kananaskis in the middle of June and as such it is time for the Hockey ignorant population to meet the Calgary Flames.

And this is merely the start, as such I present to you the second BBC article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c14xydjzn5eo) giving us ‘Canada will deal with Trump ‘on our terms’, Carney tells BBC’ (my mind still goes ‘yay Marky Mark’) and here we see “Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said his country deserves respect from the US and will only enter trade and security talks with President Donald Trump “on our terms”. Speaking exclusively to the BBC as the polls were closing, Carney said he would only visit Washington when there was a “serious discussion to be had” that respected Canada’s sovereignty.” Which is probably better then my thought to take Hawaii away from America, but I am willing to kill the bear to save the salmon and I never had any use or respect for bullies. And with ““The leaders agreed on the importance of Canada and the US working together – as independent, sovereign nations – for their mutual betterment,” the statement reads.” Which is why he is PM of Canada and not me (I am also not Canadian, so that helps) as I was willing to throw America out of Five Eyes to make his reconsider the huge mistake he was making and as the bulk of the Commonwealth is furious about the tariffs I thought I could get this stage ‘my’ way. So as the one we love to [censored text] gives us ““The election does not affect President Trump’s plan to make Canada America’s cherished 51st state,” White House deputy spokesperson Anna Kelly said.” A setting that was dung, stupid and shortsighted all at once. And now with Mark Carney, this might go pear shaped in a short time. You see, it is true that “Canada accounts for a much smaller 17% of US exports.” But what are the numbers with the United Commonwealth nations of the world? Add the UK, Australia and New Zealand to that, how large is that number becoming? Logistical retrenching tends to be expensive and the Commonwealth is willing to go there as we are fed up with the bully (optionally bullies) on Pennsylvania Avenue and in our case, the business case needs to be done. The UK has a massive debt and when America falls the EU, UK and Japan are next, fortunately Japan is on that very same pacific river, so we have options that work for use come to think of it, so is Hawaii and wouldn’t it be nice to have them unite in this partnership? (My giggling way to loud).

So as we read the end of the article with “Canada is also America’s largest foreign supplier of crude oil. America’s trade deficit with Canada – expected to be $45bn in 2024 – was mostly driven by US energy demands.” Wouldn’t it be great if its brethren get to work on that deficit with local products in exchange for Canadian oil? It’s up to the PMMC to see if that fits the bill (I lack accountancy skills), but the idea has merit (a quote from an iconic Arabian person).

Have a great day. Today I am treating myself to a slice of Tiramisu.

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