Tag Archives: NEOM

March 7, 2022 · 14:05

What we hope for

IP is a tricky thing, it is usually where we hope the people will be when it is ready, some are continuation of ideas and some are a wishful thinking approach to what might be, or become.

I understand this part. You cannot sell if people are never going to go into that direction. It is wishful thinking that they will get there. In all this, I am no different. I expect the world to evolve (or become extinct) towards the 5G stage that Neom city stages it to be. It might merely be Neom at first, but it will throw the bough of marketing into a different heading and my IP will be ready when they do. It was not rocket science. It was always going to change. There was no other way and no matter how many marketeers catch up, or try to turn the dial to THEIR advantage. It was always going to happen and the marketeers that were not ready for the shift, they merely seize to be. The market was always going to reroute because scammers, spammers and criminals stopped the current direction, 5G is enabling them more and more and we see this Wild West corral approach to ‘cyber safety’, doing whatever they can, the reality is that there will be no real relief until 2025, and that sets the stage even more to my advantage (yay me). Yet it is not about me, or my IP. It is about the stage that I set in motion. I am merely in the right place as will a few others. I foresaw a massive crash of Microsoft. Spin only get you so far, but they are so driven to Azure, Spin and ‘their’ great innovations, all whilst iteration is the best they can get. It opens up a drive in a few directions. As I personally see it Microsoft is about to lose the gaming platform to Sony, Nintendo and Amazon. They are losing more and more tablet grounds to Apple and Adobe could set the sails to take a huge chunk out of the Office market. All that and a global Azure outage. The last one might be really bad luck, but to go out globally is rattling the cages of too many and there lies the rub. GaaS and SaaS are setting a larger stage, a stage where people look to what they can TRUST, and there is my open IP connecting to a lot of it. (Yay me). Instead of looking for spin, looking for hype, the offices of GaaS and SaaS required updating and stabilising. So in this Microsoft is in a bad place. Even as we were given 3 weeks ago “Microsoft is in talks to acquire cybersecurity research and incident response company Mandiant, according to people familiar with the discussions, a deal that would bolster efforts to protect customers from hacks and breaches”, you see, it is not merely “bolster efforts to protect customers”, it is about preventing and protecting the customers you have and as we are seeing several Microsoft issues and close to none from the Amazon, IBM and Google area, Microsoft could lose this side as well making them a loser three times over, but no fear. They paid $68.7 billion for Blizzard and it will not be enough. Me (and my sense of humour) attacked that deal by handing out IP and gaming ideas as freeware for Sony and Amazon developers. It is my ‘subtle’ way of telling Microsoft to wake the fuck up. And that is merely the beginning. When my IP comes through to certain parties Amazon and Google will cut Microsoft game revenue in slices, not all mind you, but well over 30% and that is before I show them a new direction they ignored for a decade and they will lose acquiring more. I reckon that it is in the air where the SaaS will go, but IBM, Amazon and Google have equal chances. OK, Google has a better chance. But as I wrote earlier, not reality but a dream, I saw adobe evolve and take a massive chunk out of the Microsoft office population and that would hurt the most. And the Office issues in the last two years were not the greatest for Microsoft, so that field could open up and some are on the Apple trail, some prefer the Google trail and yet it is not enough, a player with the proven track record of Adobe in SaaS could overtake and shoot Microsoft to rubble. It sounds violent, but that is the SaaS field. And Microsoft has had too many issues in too many places at the same time and trying to hide behind Mandiant might not be enough this time around. I admit that I could be wrong, but I can wait to be proven right and those believing the Microsoft spin will end up with a larger mess than they are ready for, but that was the choice they made. With gaming and 5G IP I will hopefully be in a place to step in and at some point either Google or Amazon will have to reconsider the station of selling 50,000,000 consoles to a population that could be a lot more, could open a lot more and that bill fits Amazon better then Google, but Google needs to make choices at some point, with the SaaS and GaaS in such a volatile setting Google might not have a choice and losing more ground to Amazon is not in their best interest. 

Yes, it is all based on what we (read: I) hope for, but it also sets the choices we see now, the choices that some reporting channels ‘trivialise’ and that some ‘minimise’. The consumer at some point catches on and as such Microsoft is in a not so good place on several channels where they boast good times. Reality does not give them that pleasure and it will take more from them soon enough.

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February 7, 2022 · 08:10

The street we know

It is a different setting, we tend to relate to the streets we tend to know. Any technology is set upon a familiar setting. The benefit is that we know where we are and as such we get to where we think we want to go faster. The negative part is that this is a problem when it is true innovation, we cannot continue an iterative line if we want true innovation. 

So when I saw ‘Saudi Arabia announces $6.4 billion investments in future tech’ (at https://www.reuters.com/markets/funds/saudi-arabia-announces-64-billion-investments-future-tech-2022-02-01/) I took notice last week but merely that, it was to be expected. So when I looked at it again this morning, I noticed “include a $2 billion joint venture between eWTP Arabia Capital, a fund backed by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Alibaba, and China’s J&T Express Group, minister Abdullah Alswaha said”, I had overlooked that initially. But it makes sense, as ties with China grow, the Chinese IT sector would come in. It spells bad news for the US, for Amazon in particular. The options that were there are shrinking, they are not gone, but China is now in position to take the cream from the barrel and become the new fat cats. My IP still has options, but it might not go the highway I had hoped for (we all have that), still I do have the innovation advantage and when others fail I can step in. 

There is another side, a side that Amazon had in hands, you see with Neom and Vision2030 Amazon had a larger option if there was a data centre in Saudi Arabia, not a simple online store, but a real data centre, they would need one for a few reasons and even as the media gives us “showing its continued business interests there despite a public dispute between Riyadh and the company’s chief executive, Jeff Bezos”, we can see the hindrance there, we can see that there are issues (I am ignoring the FTI Consulting issues here), but in a larger stake worth billions, the need to find solutions are clear for Amazon. They could walk away and leave it all to AliBaba and the J&T Express Group yet who profits then? Not Amazon, not the US and it is another spark that goes into the direction of China. It is a problem for the US for two reasons. The first one is simple revenue, the US desperately needs that. The second one might not be that clear. You see Saudi Arabia has at present a full fletched 5G network, so those there can do all kinds of prototyping to a much larger extend and see the impact of congestion in a complete 5G network. You see at present we see assumptions via 4G LTE and other settings, this implies that other issues will not be captured when things go wrong. And with all the transgressions we have seen in 2020 and 2021 these systems need proper adjustment. Saudi Arabia has the advantage and now it seems so does China (outside of China), another step not to the advantage of the west (as expressions go), so how many steps do we all need to fall behind before people take this disadvantaged setting seriously?

Even now, the aftermath of Davos will be in favour of both Saudi Arabia and China. Al Jazeera reported “Observers see the high-profile conference as a way for the kingdom to redeem itself in the eyes of US President Joe Biden and the wider international community”, yet my question becomes ‘Why?’ You see, the EU and the US have shown themselves to be unreliable, all setting concepts to presentation in stead of evidence. Now that China is showing themselves to be a much larger player and a willing player could spell a massive loss in revenue. 3 billion here, 6.4 billion there, and several more billions left, right and hither. How much longer until we face the direction that we are losing out? Now this would not be a problem when we have alternatives, but there aren’t that many are there? And consider that one side gives us ‘Deficit shrinks in the first year of Joe Biden’s presidency’ (around $500,000,000,000 less loss), it is a joke when you consider that the deficit is still $2,500,000,000,000,000. And less than a months later the people are given ‘Biden’s $1.7trn social policy will send deficit soaring’, it is another setting of managing bd news and on top of that they lose revenue option after revenue option. So how does that look? The US debt has now surpassed $30,000,000,000,000,000, you have that kind of money? I do not and none of the others have it and an additional problem for the US is that the EU wants to dig into the Saudi revenue pie as well, yet at present China has the upper hand. A setting we ignore because we are lulled to sleep, and that time is gone, when the US debt comes crashing down the EU will join a massive loss and no amount of promise will aid anyone at that point. All because certain players underestimated the impact of innovation and innovation like some are marketing it is not innovation, it is a presentation nothing more. We all tend to keep to the street we know but when that street is on fire, will you merely stop the fire or see what resources are available in the next street? 

China did just that and now we see the fallout of political stupidity. Oh, and when Iran does not come across with promises that they made to some middle man, when the unfortunate adjustments come, the middle man will not care, he got his oil barrel bonus, he is just fine, but those who were behind it will get to say ‘Oops!’ Just as I expected them to do. At that point we will see another advantage to China, good going! And what happens in May/June when Iran has enough nuclear materials? What then?

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February 1, 2022 · 00:12

Vein tapping

Yes, I do that at times. It is not a junkie term, it is a data term and it comes from mining. Tapping the vein is to see if anything is up yet. With my 5G IP in place there is still a setting that I can tap and like many other people I would like to tap that vein, especially as retirement is approaching. So as I was watching and seeking certain top line sources I stumbled upon “wireless internet will be faster and more abundant, even in rural locations. This means that digital ads could appear in more areas, providing a seamless and consistent branded experience for your customers. The visuals and media in each ad could also be improved, advancing due to high network speeds”, it is the mot iterative version of delusional. It is not a lie all what you see is true, but it is for the people who look towards yesterday. Those who look to tomorrow will see a massive shift in the approach towards marketing, as I personally see it, the mass approach is close to over, it will last, but those who look towards tomorrow see that marketing will b a very different beast, it aligns to the one, it aligns to retail and to the shopper. In the 90’s SPSS brought a program called AnswerTree. It was a good and direct idea to marketing. You see, if we are to approach 4% of the people we need to market to over 15%, that was the old way and the people at SPSS already saw that to market to more, you either spend a linear amount more, or you market more efficient. The second one was ALWAYS better, the researcher pruned their marketing tree and a smaller bonsai version of marketable people remained. This has served a lot for close to 20 years, but that time is gone now. You see, you can use that approach and seek the largest clusters, yet over all smaller clusters are lost and why? Tomorrow will be about location and that is a different kettle of fish, at least two of my IP address that and the stage is rapidly getting larger, and the largest station hit me with some surprise. It seems that Google is not on that page yet, or if they are they are playing that card very very close to the chest. 

It is my believe that they are not completely on that page and for me that is a great feeling. It should be for Amazon too, they have a few lines out and I doubt Microsoft has a clue. You see Amazon marketing and advertising is set to Amazon and that is a fine run, yet I believe that they can reach more, as can Google. If they change the dimension of WHERE they are, they could approach the location of where everyone WANTS to be and that is all about tomorrow. Google and Amazon have the inside track and that is illuminating for a few reasons. You see, for 20 years it was all Google and now another is getting close on the next setting, neither are there yet but they could be. For me (and my IP) it is good news, because when they launch, I could release my IP and suddenly see 6-8 clusters there and it matters because it makes my IP a lot more valuable. 

Amazon will give you “Ad solutions to help you reach and engage millions of Amazon customers at every stage of their journey” and that sounds nice in the industry of today, but that is about to change and that system will not accomodate, not in time at least. Google has its system and has a few more options, but not the one they both need and that makes me happy (actually very very happy). So as I see the designs and failings (like Bing) I see a set of players all going in a similar direction, whilst they are all looking in the wrong direction. You see, the definition given earlier is good, but we should realise “wireless internet will be faster and more abundant, even in rural locations, offering a much larger pool to scammer and spammers”, and until the funnel is inverted that problems remains, and will remain to a limited degree after that and the stage is set to shopkeepers, that change will the stage completely and I am already ready with that IP. So when Neom in Saudi Arabia launches, certain players will suddenly realise what they missed and that is when my solution starts gaining traction and value fast, just as I hoped. The question is will it be in 2023 or will I have to wait until 2024 to make it all public domain. Such exciting times coming my way. Yummy!

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January 25, 2022 · 23:36

Not just America

This train of thought started when the BBC gave us ‘Inflation surge sends UK interest payments higher’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60117150). In the past, to be a little more specific with ‘Utter insanity’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/10/04/utter-insanity/) on October 4th 2021, with ‘How stupid are we?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/09/17/how-stupid-are-we/) on September 17th 2021 and even before that going back to 2015 and 2016 I made it clear that debts have interest. The US (now at 28 trillion), Japan (well over 14 trillion) and the EU with several at €5,000,000,000,000 as well as the UK with well over £2,000,000,000,000 now sees (via the BBC) the quote “The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said interest on government debt hit £8.1bn last month – up from £2.7bn a year earlier.” Is anyone even surprised? It was always going to be worse, but I admit that was before Covid took centre stage, as these elements unfolded, debts all over the planet is soaring and the interest is due. And if you think the UK is in a bad setting, consider that France and Germany have a similar setting, but with a larger debt. Germany has options, yet I am not sure how many France has and as I am taking notice of it the article more thoughts come to mind. You see, I wrote with some degree of speculation “The US laughed and sniggered when Wall Street offered vulture solutions to Argentina in 1998, now the vultures are ready and set to rip the US carcass apart. Is it a fair view? That is not in question, yet the stage is now that it is becoming a likely view the only people treated fair are the hard workers who just tried to get by.” And this view is not taking into consideration what the US will do to regard their registered patents and IP to be part of the debt leverage. It made me consider where to put my IP. In all this Canada was the safest bet, more important, Amazon could set the market upheave with securing up to $15 billion in IP, IP that is still unsecured. And as I notice a few articles in the BBC, there is ever chance that one of the IP settings could well over double. Another IP (a concept IP setting) could well exceed that if the IP for the printable displays takes hold. You see, power needs are exceeding massively what is available and the idea that we could optionally reduce power requirements to one device by well over 60%, the idea of doing that to up to 100,000,000 devices will count, the optional military setting (as their is a notion that this solution is speculatively EMP proof, would exceed the expectations by a lot more, by more than even I could imagine. But I will accept that DARPA is a much better source then I ever would be. 

So as debts and power needs rise to way above the acceptable norm, there could be a partial union between Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos (or whomever runs Amazon). And in this Reuters news from December 18th telling us ‘U.S. to face increasing power reliability issues over next 10 years’ merely fuels my IP value. There is optionally a larger stage that has everything to do with people moving from California to Texas and I wrote about it in the past. It doesn’t just set the environment with not enough power, it also sets the available power in the wrong place, giving places like Texas a few more headaches. In this the solution that Elon Musk has will be essential and needed almost immediately. 

But this is not about him, it is about Amazon and Amazon has as per today an optional solution for issues in the UK, issues in a few places in the EU and that is all before someone realises that Neom (Saudi Arabia) requires a very different approach to marketing and retail visibility. I based part of my IP on that shift in 2019 and now that it is closing in, someone will realise that whatever is set there could influence and strengthen it position in Egypt and Israel as well. This relates to the previous part because the US has done almost nothing in that regard other than alienate Saudi Arabia, the EU is in a similar position as they cater too much towards Iran and Saudi Arabia can together with Huawei set the 5G base to include Egypt which brings close to 100,000,000 subscriptions and they all want to do marketing. And in all this I have been right again and again and now that the UK is realising that an interest increase from “£8.1bn last month – up from £2.7bn a year earlier”, the need for commerce is overtaking all other considerations and Amazon has the inside track on several options. At that point do you think the US will be about fair play? They will take what they can and they will leverage IP as required to not fall over, because if the UK is facing this, then so are Japan and the US to some degree and none of them has the stamina to wage a long fight with debts drowning them, especially when the interest is too much too handle. In all this Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have the option to be saviours (at a price), especially when the short sighted governments should have seen this coming a mile away. Why? I saw this point as early as 2015, thus I was aware of the danger 7 years before the BBC informs its audience and this is not merely ‘speculation’, this was always going to happen, only through covid there is a chance that the UK will beat the US and Japan to that point of drowning. And when that happens it will the the one marker where all retirement funds will dry up faster than oasis in the Sahara. Feel free to doubt me, but I leave it up to you to await the bad news from your retirement funds. Some studies were made that in the US 40% will run out of retirement funds due to all kinds of risks and governments running out of cash is a big one, that is why (for them) patents and IP are so important, they are the leverage some companies prefer not to give them. They might prefer to call it ‘Leveraging Federal Resources’ but in the end that is where it is heading and it will not merely be the US, it will be a lot more places who play that game, so in the end, those who own their IP are in an exulted place of negotiating. Hence the benefit that Amazon and Musk will end up having and should either be a larger part of Neom, their value will merely go up, because it is not (merely) about  Neom, it is the strategic place it has for Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel. From there a whole range of options open up and the first one there gets to serve all the others. 

It is not about the US, it is not merely the US. You need to see that before it is too late to act, it might still be too late to act, but there is an option to reap some rewards in that mess and that is all up to you, I placed my IP in a strategic place, outside of government reach. It was a good as I would be able to steer it, now it is up to others and I might still miss out, but I gave it one hell of a try. 

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September 12, 2021 · 20:37

Where the grass is greener

It is a question that comes from an expression, which also has the answer. And we will look into that later. It seems that the US is taking larger steps in ending the friendship with Saudi Arabia. Politico reported yesterday ‘U.S. pulls missile defences in Saudi Arabia amid Yemen attacks’ (at https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/11/missile-defense-saudi-arabia-511320), now we can understand that some are not willing to sell arms, but a defence system that stops terrorists sending drones and missiles on civilian targets? It seems that the actions are a prelude for the US to get into bed with Iran (highly speculative) and that is a concept worthy of laughter, but I am not laughing. 

The setting that is given is “the perception is very clear that the U.S. is not as committed to the Gulf as it used to be in the views of many people in decision-making authority in the region” we get this from Kristian Ulrichsen, a research fellow at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. I think there is more to that, but it lacks evidence. I for one have believed for years that the US (NATO allies too) were playing a one step destabilisation game in the middle east. A game where destabilisation is a mere one step away and that is no longer the case. Until thee is a direct blow between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the larger stage is not maintained and the US is getting out of there. For China it is good news, now that they are looking at another customer for the HQ-9 and a few other options. Yes, we see the western press all shouting on ending arms deals, but in the end Saudi Arabia should be allowed to defend itself and the need to defend against Houthi terrorist attacks is a prime concern for a lot of people there. So is there an alternative? Well, there is the Russian alternative, but they are shipping that to Iran, so to buy those as well is a bit of an issue on a few levels, but those objections work for China. Consider that China now has a direct setting to sell well over $17,000,000,000 in hardware to Saudi Arabia, the same will now be lost to the US in an age where they are absolutely broke. It never made sense to me, it is all nice to have high morals, but in an age where you cannot afford to buy bread and healthcare high morals just leads to more hunger in a day and age where most cannot afford such luxuries. And let’s be clear, this is not some banana republic, this is a well established monarchy. And whilst we see “From the Saudi point of view, they now see Obama, Trump and Biden — three successive presidents — taking decisions that signify to some extent an abandonment.” We merely see more and more options for China and that is merely the beginning, once the stage is set the US will lose more ground and that also leads to a stage where they are completely dependent on Israel to give them intelligence.  A stage that could have been prevented from the start and no matter how they see it and I am accepting that it is their policy, it also comes with the new policy that the OPEC nations might have a new consideration, oil to China and not to the US or Europe (mostly reduced amounts of oil to Europe) And it will not aid Strasbourg to start crying foul here, it is the consequence of closing settings and in all this I personally prefer China and not Russia to get these options, it is a personal matter (NATO related). The larger stage will also hit Egypt, should Saudi Arabia continue with Huawei to set 5G connections in Egypt, the economic footprint of Saudi Arabia will change, all whilst the US ends up with a reduced footprint and that is a stage that is now escalating over the next 12-18 months. 

Will I be right?
That is open to interpretation and it is open to a few factors that are not given, untested and lacking evidence, but there is a larger stage that this could play out and that is really bad news for anyone not relying on Huawei hardware, with the US pulling out of areas that stage will also lose a few more settings, so as Chinese hardware comes in, US consultants will lose more and more traction in larger areas and that is the stage some players (seemingly) overlooked. So when Analysys Mason and Boston Consulting Group start missing deals and getting less appointments you know it will be too late for a few options. There are a few more players there, but they have a much larger stage with more nations and more options, they might end up with a few projects that are China based. 

So why would Saudi Arabia move to Egypt?

It is a fair question and it sets a much larger stage where Neom city will be all 5G and to stretch out towards Egypt makes perfect sense, one large network that stretches from Cairo to Jeddah, to Mecca and via Riyadh to Dammam, a network that also includes Neom, one of the biggest 5G networks in the world and it would be all Saudi, now consider the lack of credibility that the west has in a place like Egypt and now a fellow Islamic nation offers to include Egypt, what do you think Egypt will do? And lets not forget with all the band and embargo’s and collateral damage the US has in its name, Egypt is ready to seek a telecom alliance with Saudi Arabia and their numbers look really good compared to the US, it is partially speculation yet in this the Huawei announcements in 2019 give validity to my train of thought, Now add to that the media rollover I discussed a week or two ago and you see a much larger stage and the promise that Saudi Arabia made on having more than oil as a form of income is now coming to pass with a rollout that could be ready long before that deadline hits in 2030, there is a stage that should see a larger readiness in 2025, long before the US has anywhere near that level of 5G completion. In May of this year we were given “All of the major U.S. wireless carriers say they have nationwide 5G service, but industry analysts say that service is largely indistinguishable from 4G LTE service.” This implies that the Statista numbers we saw last year remains accurate for at least two more years, implying that the Saudi 5G is well over 700% faster than anything the US has and that is just embarrassing. So when we see Telecom and defence falling away from the west, how much more losses do we need to see before someone realises that we are cutting ourselves. Morality is nice but the hungry need food and they do not care how they get it. A stage where the middle east becomes the tech centre is weird, completely unexpected and whilst we see stories on Silicon Valley, I wonder if they have anything left? When the middle east is driving tech innovation the west becomes a mere iterator trying to keep up. I personally see it as the result of concept selling, it is all good and nice but the customer wants a product, it needs to get working and as we see hype after hype on AI all whilst it is merely machine learning and deeper learning, we need to consider how long this can continue until the stage implodes on itself? 

So where is the grass greener? On the other fellows yard! (Billy Jones, 1924)

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June 13, 2021 · 19:03

Perceived stupidity

Yes, hard to see that is it? It is perceived, perceived by me, by you, by people who are clueless and by people who are basically mindless. Perception is a dangerous thing, but the US is trying to get a handle on it. This issue starts with that I am not making any claims, I am not stating or implying that I am wiser than the US House Judiciary Committee (wiser is not the same as more intelligent). Yet the US House Judiciary Committee (via Al Jazeera) is giving us “if passed, would bar Amazon from selling its own branded products, Amazon Basics, for example, or Apple from offering Apple Music, or Google from providing specialised search services in travel, local businesses and shopping”, In addition we see “The proposal could also threaten Google’s $23 billion display-advertising business. Google runs an exchange for ad transactions and provides the technology used by website publishers and advertisers to buy and sell digital advertising, but it also competes in the marketplace as a buyer and a seller”. As such this article was aired two days ago, which I initially missed, but when I read it (about three hours ago), I fell over laughing and I did not stop laughing for an hour. The absolute irony of the issue is that my IP avoids all that and in addition creates new waves too. So, not only am I feeling great, there is every chance that Google and Amazon will be vying for my affection (Apple is not a consideration at present). So not only is my IP valuable, it now in addition optionally negates the $23,000,000,000 Google business giving it another avenue of release and that one is one the US House Judiciary Committee cannot attack, my setting was founded on decentralisation. 

So am am I perceived to be stupid, or are they (Not judging)? Consider what we see (at https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/11/us-tech-titans-would-have-to-exit-key-businesses-under-house-plan), the text “Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc. and other U.S. technology giants would have to sell or exit key businesses under sweeping antitrust legislation proposed by House lawmakers”, is this anything less than the US government trying to take control of a business they have no business being in? They will call it something like “Let the little fish grow”, yet the flaw is that any business is entitled to go where it wants and now we suddenly see the larger stage where Canada and the UK could reap massive rewards, just because some people were discriminatory against the FAANG group. Consider laws and bills to discriminate against 5 players. I stated yesterday that this would not go well, and I believe I am correct (we all believe we are correct), but in a stage where not only am I proven correct, the stage soon becomes that my IP will flourish even more than I had ever thought possible. 

Granny in sights

So, even though the bear is not killed yet, someone gave me an Accuracy International .50 sniper rifle (with 3 rounds) and I get to take down my target from 100 metres, and if I hit that target I will become a multi millionaire, so yes, that granny with her walker will not have a chance to cross the road alive. I reckon one bullet is quite enough.  And there I was thinking that I would end up with a paint-gun with metal pallets. 

So the old setting of “prohibit tech companies from owning a business that competes with other products or services on their platforms, among other measures”, a stage that players like Microsoft and IBM enjoyed for decades is out of the way. Yet it also muddies the water. Consider that Microsoft bought Bethesda ($8.5B) and Minecraft ($2.2B), which was their way of giving Sony the finger, now we will see a very different stage and that might work, but it also means that these player will hire all the talent out of other software houses and dim the lights in other ways. Did they even consider the impact of their plan and if they can do it, players like Chengdu Nibirutech Inc, Augegame Network Technology Co., Ltd., GamesUnion Technology Co.,Ltd and several others, so when they start tinkering on the other fence, what happens then? Too many people lost faith in players like Ubisoft, they might give nice presentations, but so far too many of their products are bug ridden, the gamer have had enough and in that stage we see that the US government is tying the hands of big tech as they compete with China and Russia. How was that ever a good idea? Oh and that is before independent developers consider an upgraded Neom as a place of development. Especially as Fierce Wireless 2 days ago gave us “Users on Verizon’s 5G network in mature deployment areas don’t yet notice much difference in performance than 4G users, according to new analysis from Tutela”, in a stage where Saudi Arabia has a 5G that is 700% faster than the US, is this really the time to have a pissing contest when one is lagging on a technology field, a economic field and a manufacturing and project field? But that is all good news for places like Canada and the UK, as such the economic field will adjust and it will take the sails out of Wall Street as I personally see it, but in that regard I might be wrong. These elements matter, If you think of it Amazon was a book seller, so is all to be sold off? In this how much more expensive will your lives end up being? Google might be in a better place, but when we see “Google runs an exchange for ad transactions and provides the technology used by website publishers and advertisers to buy and sell digital advertising”, when that goes into the air, do you think the scam and phishing era is gone? No, it will go from one a week to several a day and you will not block them all, more important, if you see places like Twitter, we already get the issue there, advertisers trying to call in the ‘click bitches’ hoping to get revenue of dozens of pages, all whilst that EVERY PAGE there is a trojan danger by people they never knew, but the advertisement money os too appealing, especially if they get a dime a page per person. Do you think that these advertisers are doing it out of the goodness of their hearts and matters will go from bad to worse and that same US House Judiciary Committee is clueless how to stop what comes next, they never explored the dangers there. 

So when we get to David Cicilline, a Rhode Island Democrat, who was so about the power of big-tech, yet the Boston Globe (at https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/06/11/metro/unemployment-fraud-hit-one-rhode-islands-congressmen/) gives us “In March, the Rhode Island Department of Labor and Training (DLT) reported that 43 percent of claims turned out to be suspected and confirmed fraud during the pandemic, and about $37.6 million was paid out to confirmed fraudulent claims. Another $209.6 million was paid out to suspected fraudulent claims. The good news is that it could have been much worse. The state believes it stopped at least $3.2 billion in payments to suspected fraudulent claims between March 2020 and March 2021.” The article also gives us that 15 Rhode Island residents were charged in a nationwide unemployment scheme, yet do you think that these 15 were responsible for the $209 million, or the alleged thwarted $3,200,000,000? I personally believe that he has no clue what is about to hit the US when these big tech bills becomes a reality. And as I said it yesterday, a tax overhaul is decades late.

I saw the fake tunnel in the distance in 1998, that is almost a quarter of a century ago, it has been that long that US politics decided to remain inactive and now they are making matters worse by overreacting, but that will works out nicely for other nations, so if Amazon and others relocate to Toronto (CAN) or Ipswich (UK) the US will have done it to themselves.

 

In some cases I say ‘Time will tell’ yet here the phrase ‘Surprise, surprise. Time is here!’ seems more apt.

We will all know soon enough.

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January 23, 2019 · 14:56

Why the objection?

We all have it, we all object at times. I am not stating that an objection is irrelevant, wrong or short sighted, because as we might not know all the fact, no conclusion can be due to a lack of data. Yet, the objection of Jordan seems wrong to me, especially when we consider the quote ‘Jordan’s state-run media said the new Israeli airport near its border violates the kingdom’s sovereignty‘. The article (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/israeli-airport-open-jordanian-border-190121102753669.html) gives us the goods on the newly opened airport, soon also to be an international airport is from my point of view a really good idea in more than one way. You see, Ramon Airport gives people a direct option to Eilat, a wonderful place to behold (I was there in 1982). It has the views, the water, some entertainment, a nice aquarium and a few other parts that make it to be a very nice holiday destination.

In addition, it opens up tourism dollars to Aqaba (Jordan), as well as dollars to Taba (Egypt). Las but not least, the new city of Neom, which end just to the south of there will be easily reachable. It will further growth to Neom and Eilat, as well as commerce in that region going all the way to Sharm-El-Sheikh. There is close to no valid reason to oppose it. There might be unknown reasons to me, I just cannot tell at present.

Ben Gurion airport needed an alternative for the longest of times, and now there is one. In light of the activities by Hamas, Ramon airport is a good thing to have. To be quite honest, whilst I am typing this, i am thinking back to the lovely days I had there as well as the great shoarma’s I had at a gas station near the aquarium. It has been 36.5 years and I still remember those shoarma’s.

There is another matter that will rear its head soon enough. As the completion of construction continues, the need for a new digital marker in visibility is of equal importance to Eilat, Neom, Aqaba, Taba and Sharm-El-Sheikh. You see, they will only get visibility if they raise awareness and that is seemingly not happening.

To get the two at the top when we seek “Eilat Tourism” is nice, but nowhere near good enough, your business is only as good as the awareness you create and or the most, and there is not a lot of awareness. the fact that there is an Irish place there (at http://www.paddys.co.il/), and they are not above the fold and not bidding on the keywords is quite honestly a mistake, in addition, the website looks good on desktop, but well over 50% is searched via mobile and at that point there website requires an overhaul on a few levels. The switching to the English site was amazingly slow and that is just for starters. As tourism grows it will be about who knows you and how easy people can find you, awareness is everything. It is not too late, it is merely January so they have time to repair what is there, but it needs to be done and this is the one that was visible. There are many that are not even visible and for the life of me, I cannot figure out why.

There is a lot more, but that is not important right now.

The message for Aqaba is not much better, we can argue that Aqaba was never intended as a touristic place, which makes perfect sense, but why not profit on the back of all this? This proclaimed jewel of the red sea is there to be an asset for Jordan, and as such people need to know that this is an important place to consider, especially as they are a short bus ride from Eilat. I found their Tourism site more appealing, yet also slower. The webmaster was trying to be clever about it and basically shot himself in the foot in the process. If it is slow on the desktop, it will be a nightmare on the mobile (and it was) and as such they lose a lot more visibility. As stated before well over 50% is sought via mobile and these places are mobile unfriendly. I get that they might not have been ready in 2015, yet in 2018 it is an essential path to consider, especially in tourism, the digital footprint is close to everything there.

Both Aqaba and Eilat know that the digital life is important, yet why they failed to the degree that they have remains a mystery for now. In all this, it is my view that Taba scores to low to have an actual digital footprint, I reckon they could have done better and have a better tourism return, yet with Taba being in the Sinai, there might be additional problems for them. Almost the same could be said for Sharm-El-Sheikh, but they started to grow visibility in the early 80’s, it also had other hardships to deal with, yet as they are opening themselves for business, having a proper digital footprint is essential and they do not have one. So even as ABC news gives us: ‘Egypt welcomes back tourists after seven years of political instability despite security concerns‘, it seems to me that they are nowhere near ready at present and there is no direct consideration whether this is due to ‘security concerns’ or if there is another cycle of changes required. No matter what they are waiting for, the digital footprint will be essential to gain growing levels of awareness in that region. I know from others and from the past that diving and water activities used to be decently high, so regaining that footprint should be an essential first step. In addition, even as we agree with the ABC headline ‘Any help on tourism front is a positive for Egyptians‘ without a growing awareness element, it will not matter too much down the road. They can hope for a large infusion as Neom grows, but that would be disastrous too as we see a much more eager growth in both Aqaba and Eilat, if people need to make a choice, the size of Sharm-El-Sheikh dwarves to the visibility in offers that the other two have at present. Even as we saw Reuters treat us in mid-2018 to: “an 80 per cent increase in revenues from the previous year“, the direct reality is that 80% more of little is still not a lot. It is more visible when we consider: “However, for many working in the industry, including in South Sinai, the official increases are not quite paying off yet, as direct flights from places like Russia to Sharm El-Sheikh are yet to resume“, I see the lack of a digital footprint as a direct result of the lack of growth for the moment (I am not ignoring the security issue).

What is lacking in one will benefit the other and that is where larger options for growth in both Aqaba and Eilat become apparent and both could profit. Also, as the entire region is linked more and more to Neom, we see additional options for growth for all concerned, yet none of it matters when awareness is kept to a minimum. No matter how we slice it, the tourism will be on the rise in Eilat soon enough, it will rise enough for Jordan to find cooperation there and grow tourism to both Aqaba and Wadi Rum, both are within 35 Km and as such taking an additional day to see both places will be well worth the effort for all tourists visiting the Gulf of Aqaba. When that starts happening, Haql, who will be on the northern border of Neom City, which is only 30 Km from there would benefit greatly in that regard. Consider any tourist and the option for them to go home stating that they went sightseeing in Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia within a week, remaining close to the beaches and enjoying the sunshine almost every moment in this, who would not be envious hearing those words?

From my point of view, growing the business will take time and it all starts by having a clear digital footprint, without it these places will remain lost and unfound, it is a solution that could be done by most web designers and proper SEO consultants overnight. I merely wonder why no one looked at this before; because there is no way that I was the only one noticing this.

I wonder which of the three will catch on the quickest in 2019. I am not dismissing Sharm-El-Sheikh, I merely remain aware that they have a lot more elements to overcome at present.

 

 

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January 17, 2019 · 11:07

Mining Rites

We all have these moments that we think we know, we are certain to know what we face, yet the truth is we do not. It happens to us all, you, me and those around us. This is not a new thing, this has been happening for the better part of 30 years. Most Americans ignore it and hide behind the ‘Fake it till you make it’ slogan, whilst they jump left, right and backwards to give the imaginative view that they know what they are doing. The setting is merely hilarious when we look at the events knowing that they do not know anything at all. That is the moment you can watch the train wreck move forwards whilst you relax and watch the collateral damage unfold. Weirdly enough it is not unlike Super 8 (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL_6gA_BVtA, from 04:00), one scene that sets the stage for the entire movie. I think it is the greatest train wreck ever produced and we are viewing what happens, knowing what happens, yet until the end, the actual reason why we faced it in the first place remains a question mark.

This all shows the stage that we have faced in the last 10 years in IT, as well as what the car makers face now in the stage of ‘Stricken car makers stall at the crossroads of a radical future‘. It is not merely the stage of cars, there is (what I personally would call) some case of delusion that people are actually waiting for 27 models. I agree that there are some who feel that way, but the bulk of people are clueless of what makes a good car, they merely want a car that looks really nice (and is safe, and is regarded as cool). Yes, most of us all want the Jaguar XF or the Maserati Gran Turismo, but it is not financially feasible. So some go the route of the Japanese model, some seek American and some go in another direction (there are so many), and still we see the fight by offering dozens of models, most will never ever be the great model we were all seeking. It does open doors and at times we do see a niche, like the Abarth, a modernised Fiat 500 (personal opinion) and for functional reasons it is a great choice to get quickly in the city and find a place to park, which is still the number one villain in the life of a car.

But it is not about cars, the jump will make sense a little later. You see last week we saw the escalations of some Saudi Teenager and the news was all over it, The Washington Post gives us the new life of escaped ‘Rahaf Mohammed’, with ‘For teen who fled Saudi Arabia, a new life in Canada starts with a new name‘, oh it is all over the news on how evil Saudi Arabia has lost a victim to freedom. We see the news with papers in nearly every country giving light to the plight of this poor young lady. She escaped! So, when the dust settles and we realise that she got on a plane to somewhere else, whilst I was not able to afford a plane ride until I was close to 23, in a place where I was never in danger, when you realise that and you also realise that the news is steering clear of Yemen, where we learned in the last week that “Houthi rebel and Yemeni government representatives did not meet face-to-face in the port city of Hodeidah over the past week“, and that the simplest part where we are notified of: “Since MASAM was launched in June, 2018, a total of 26,609 mines planted by the Iranian-backed Houthi militias in the territories, schools, and homes across Yemen were removed“, in addition sources inform us of: “the project – launched with an initial budget of $40 million with an aim to achieve a landmine-free Yemen – still has to tackle a total of 600,000 mines planted in liberated areas by the Houthi militias. This includes 130,000 internationally banned sea mines, 40,000 mines in Marib and 16,000 mines on the island of Mayon alone“. This is what we get from Dr. Abdullah Al-Rabeeah, the Supervisor General of KS Relief. So as we are seemingly all about bashing Saudi Arabia through misrepresentation, we seem to also bash people, without actual evidence mind you, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia regarding the events surrounding Jamal Khashoggi, even as no evidence has been presented to the people. The media has been hiding behind ‘seemingly‘, ‘inside sources told us‘ and ‘according to the latest information‘, the bulk of the matter does not hold up to scrutiny in any court of law, our laws mind you!

The media whoring like second hand car salesman (and sales woman) all voicing the news according to populist belief. It seems that the world is now afraid of Saudi Arabia. Not because of their might, or military options, but because in the first, Saudi Arabia is making moves to technological advances that is leaving the United Stated behind, and as US players are hiding behind fake 5G options (AT&T) as Forbes gives us: ‘CES 2019: AT&T CEO Hypes ‘Fake’ 5G Evolution Network Causing Confusion Among Consumers‘ (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeanbaptiste/2019/01/15/ces-2019-att-ceo-hypes-fake-5g-evolution-network-creating-confusion-among-consumers), where we are treated to more and more deception, Even as the article gives us “To make matters worse, AT&T is currently in the process of deploying two real 5G networks, branded “5G” and “5G+”, the latter being faster than 5G. Confused? Wait, there’s more. A little known regional wireless carrier, Redzone Wireless launched over a year ago “5Gx” (no, it’s not 5G, just branding like AT&T), a fixed wireless service in Maine” at the end, we need to realise that some parties are done for, stupidity got them there and that is where we see a different setting in Saudi Arabia (as well as the UAE). We see that the auctions of true 5G are in place, the market is growing and now we see that true 5G, not the AT&T or the Redzone version are set to technologically boom the stage in the Middle East, the nations that the Western European nations have been looking down on for generations, is now equaling and surpassing that so called free western world. This also is the fear of Iran, who seemingly has a deal with the western world to not be mentioned, to be given a clear pass, the entire landmine debacle and how the western media is avoiding covering it is clear evidence of that. Consider that Yemen is roughly the same size as Germany, when we are told that there are still ‘600,000 mines to tackle‘, when we see that, every newspaper in the world would be all over it, but no, it is Yemen, no one actually cares, especially now that Lady Diana Spencer is dead. The media cannot get a nice image of that, can they?

so now see the ‘plight’ of a Saudi Teenager versus the plight of King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre, via the services of Doctor Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Rabeeah who is truly trying to make life in Yemen better by trying to remove another 600,000 mines, after they had already removed thousands of mines, making Yemen at least safe to walk in, mines planted by Iranian supported Houthi’s. Because the clear message is not that the Houthi forces planted the mines, the fact that they never had the resources or funds to get them in the first place, the Iranians were part of that entire mess, but the media is not asking those questions either, how is that acceptable? Has the world gone Anti-Saudi Arabia? What right do we have to be Anti-Saudi? So far they are proving to be more innovative, better prepared and more eager to be the main player in a technological world that is now based on deception and marketing in America. How should we accept a sliding scale of value of this size and nature? And should you doubt my news (always an option) then please Google ‘King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre’ and see how many western publications have given any notion of the trucks filled with relief goods for the people of Yemen, aid to Jordanian refugee centres and heating fuel and gas cylinders for cooking distributed to ten thousand refugees, as well as 2100 tonnes of food for displaced Nigerian refugees. It seems to me that the western world as well as the Christian world is lagging in many places, on many levels, all this whilst the transgressors are not held to any account. So when was the last time that you considered the death of Jamal Khashoggi in a nation where that nation leads the world list in jailed journalists in the first place and let’s not forget that this is the nation that jailed Pelin Ünker for well over a year for looking into the Panama Papers, she was found guilty of ‘defamation and insult’ for writing about companies owned by former PM. Is that it? Were the allegations true, were the Panama Papers correct? Was Tax evasion proven, or was it merely illuminated tax avoidance?

We seem to give a clear path to the wrong people, the wrong ideals (like Tax Avoidance) and we see to be painting the wrong parties all whilst the western world is desperate to make a deal with Iran, a deal that could optionally be proven to be the worst investment in the history of the world soon thereafter.

A place that is making future history by building a city 32 times the size of New York, a feat never attempted before in history. So how do we react? Do we cheer these people for trying the impossible? No, we try to burn whatever relations Saudi Arabia has, so that it could never ever surpass the achievements of America, a place in lockdown over a bloody wall between America and Mexico, give me a break please!

Yet the EU still tries to keep some EU ties with Turkey, the EU still wants some nuclear deal with Iran, two bad ideas in a place where the evidence is showing us that these two are never to be trusted, that these two are all about breaking deals, and in all this the EU also slams Saudi Arabia every chance it gets whilst keeping Iran and Houthi connection under illuminated, just like they keep silent on Iranian and Hezbollah connections, Perhaps you have heard about Hezbollah, the terrorist organisation. So why keep that out of the news whenever they can? In that Rahaf Mohammed al-Qunun, a teenager who apparently still had the money to fly to Sydney Australia via Bangkok. Yes that news did reach the press in every newspaper. I do not judge Rahaf for her actions, I merely show you all that the media is using whatever they can to fill the space of media so that they can misrepresent the world for the needs of the large corporate needs, like bad second hand car salesman, they are voicing merely what they think that we want to hear and the actual news? That is a fairy tale for those who seemingly do not matter.

Also consider the final part of Ernest Moniz, who in October 2018 was quoted with: “Former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said on Wednesday he has suspended his role on the board of Saudi Arabia’s planned mega city NEOM until more is known about the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who disappeared on Oct. 2 after visiting a Saudi consulate in Turkey“, an action that seemingly made sense at the time, whilst a mere three days ago we see: “Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization on Sunday highlighted his country had started taking initial measures to develop a 20%-enriched fuel for use in nuclear reactors, Tansim reported“, Ernest Moniz is happy to be part of a mining community like Iran who provided the 600,000+ mines that Saudi Arabia is trying to clear is evidence of that. Now also consider that ‘all HEU can be used to make nuclear weapons‘, and the threshold between LEU (Low enriched) and weapons grade starts at 20%, so in this we see a (what I would personally regard) as a hypocrite like Ernest Moniz (my personal view on the matter) who is willing to stand in Iran stating (in posture and theory) that there is no danger with 20% enriched Uranium, making him the new Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, who in 1933 came back from a meeting with Adolf Hitler stating: ‘Peace for our time‘, do you remember how that ended?

We are focussing on fictive dangers and the real ones are at all of our doors, we need to consider the actions that we allow our politicians to make in our names, in an age of unemployment, in an age of technological impasse, we are listening to greed inclines car salesman who have no clue, merely the knowledge that they need their bonus, their bonus shares and personal profit and we all forget that there are real dangers and real people like Doctor Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Rabeeah trying to deal with those dangers, but the media won’t allow us to find out those truths to a larger degree.

You tell me who is right, you merely have to properly Google these searches and they are out in the open for anyone curious enough to learn more.

 

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December 14, 2018 · 13:07

Fight the Future

Mark Bergen gives us a Bloomberg article. The Sydney Morning Herald took it on (at https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/inside-huawei-s-secret-hq-china-is-shaping-the-future-20181213-p50m0o.html). Of course the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Huawei Technologies is the introduction here. We then get the staging of: “inside Huawei’s Shenzhen headquarters, a secretive group of engineers toil away heedless to such risks. They are working on what’s next – a raft of artificial intelligence, cloud-computing and chip technology crucial to China’s national priorities and Huawei’s future” with a much larger emphasis on “China’s government has pushed to create an industry that is less dependent on cutting-edge US semiconductors and software“, the matters are not wrong, yet they are debatable. When I see ‘China’s national priorities‘ and ‘Huawei’s future‘ we must ask ourselves, are they the same? They might be on the same course and trajectory, but they are not the same. In the end Huawei needs to show commercial power and growth, adhering to China’s national needs are not completely in line with that, merely largely so.

Then we something that is a lot more debatable, when we get: “That means the business would lap $US100 billion in 2025, the year China’s government has set to reach independence in technological production” and by my reckoning, China could optionally reach that in 2021-2022, these three years are important, more important than you realise. Neom in Saudi Arabia, optionally three projects in London, two in Paris, two in Amsterdam and optionally projects in Singapore, Dubai and Bangkok. Tokyo would be perfect, yet they are fiercely competitive and the Japanese feel nationalistic on Japanese and at times more important, driven towards non-Chinese goods. In the end, Huawei would need to give in too much per inch of market share, not worth it I reckon, yet the options that Huawei has available might also include growing the tourist fields where they can grow market share through data service options, especially if the can Google to become part of this (in some places). In the end, the stage is still valid to see Huawei become the biggest 5G player in the field.

Then we get the first part of the main event. With: “It started working on customised chips to handle complex algorithms on hardware before the cloud companies did. Research firm Alliance Bernstein estimates that HiSilicon is on pace for $US7.6 billion in sales this year, more than doubling its size since 2015. “Huawei was way ahead of the curve,” said Richard, the analyst.” we see something that I have tried to make clear to the audience for some time.

June 2018: ‘Telstra, NATO and the USA‘ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/06/20/telstra-nato-and-the-usa/) with: “A failing on more than one level and by the time we are all up to speed, the others (read: Huawei) passed us by because they remained on the ball towards the required goal.”

September 2018: ‘One thousand solutions‘ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/09/26/one-thousand-solutions/) with: “we got shown 6 months ago: “Huawei filed 2,398 patent applications with the European Patent Office in 2017 out of a total of 166,000 for the year“, basically 1.44% of ALL files European patents were from that one company.”

Merely two of several articles that show us the momentum that Huawei has been creating by stepping away from the iterative mobile business model and leaping technologically ahead one model after the other. If you look at the history of the last few years, Huawei went from P7, Mate 10, Nova 3i and Mate 20 Pro. These 4 models in a lifecycle timeline have been instrumental for them and showing the others that there is fierce competition. The P7, a mere equal to the Samsung Galaxy 4 in its day, yet 43% cheaper for the consumer, and now they are at the Mate 20 Pro, which is 20% cheaper than the Samsung Galaxy Note9 and regarded as better in a few ways. In 4 cycles Huawei moved from optionally a choice to best in the field and still cheaper than most. That is the effect of leaping forward and they are in a place where they can do the same in the 5G field.

We are confronted with the drive with the statement: “Huawei is throwing everything into its cloud package. It recently debuted a set of AI software tools and in October released a new specialised chip, called the Ascend. “No other chip set has this kind of capability of processing,” Qiu said.” This viewed advantage is still a loaded part because there is the fact that China is driven towards growing the AI field, where they, for now have a temporary disadvantage. We might see this as a hindrance, yet that field is only visible in the governmental high end usage that there is and consumers like you and me will not notice this, those who claim it and create some elaborate ‘presentation’ into making the water look muddy. When your life is about Twitter, LinkedIn and Facebook, you will never notice it. In the high end usage, where AI is an issue, they are given the cloud advantage that others cannot offer to the degree that is available to non-governmental players (well, that is what it looks like and that is technologically under consideration, yet it does look really nice).

When we look towards the future of Huawei we clearly see the advantages of the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, UAE and optionally Qatar if they play their cards right. Latin America is an option, especially if they start in Argentina, where they could optionally add Uruguay overnight, branching out towards Chile and Paraguay will be next leaving the growth towards Brazil. Yet in that same strategy add Venezuela and Colombia first would enable several paths. The business issue remains, yet being the first to have an additional appeal and if it pisses off the Americans Venezuela gets on board fast often enough. The issue is more than technological. The US still has to prove to the audience that there is a 5G place for them all and the infrastructure does not really allow for it at present, merely the metropolitan areas where the money is, driving inequality in the USA even further.

If visibility is the drive than Huawei is very much on the right track and they are speeding that digital super highway along nicely. Yet in opposition to all this is the final paragraph in the SMH. When we see: ““As long as they stick to the game plan, they still have a lot of room to grow,” he said. “Unless the US manages to get their allies to stop buying them.”” This is a truth and also a reassurance. You see the claim ‘Unless the US manages to get their allies to stop buying them‘, gets us to an American standard. It was given to us by the X-Files in the movie with the same name, or perhaps better stated Chris Carter gave it to us all. The end he gives us: “He is but one man. One man alone cannot fight the future“, it equally applies to governments too, they might try to fight the future, yet in the end, any nation is built from the foundation of people, stupid or not, bright or less so, the larger group can do arithmetic and when we are confronted with a Huawei at $450, or an Apple iPhone at $2350, how many of you are desperately rich enough to waste $1900 more on the same functionality? Even when we add games to the larger three (Facebook, LinkedIn & Twitter), most phones will merely have an optional edge and at $1900? Would you pay for the small 10% difference that 1-3 games optionally offer? And let’s not forget that you will have to add that difference again in 2 years when you think that you need a new phone. The mere contemplation of optimised playing free games at $77 a month makes total sense doesn’t it? So there we see the growth plan of Huawei, offering the top of the mountain at the base price and those in denial making these unsubstantiated ‘security risk’ claims will at some point need to see the issue as Verizon is the most expensive provider in the US, So when I see $110 per month for 24 GB of shared data, whilst I am getting 200GB for $50, I really have to take an effort not to laugh out loud. That is the 5G world, the US faces and whilst there was an option for competitive players in the US, the Huawei block is making sure that some players will rake in the large cash mountain for much longer and there others are making fun of my predictions, and now that I am proven to be correct, they are suddenly incommunicado and extremely silent.

As such, when I predicted that the US is now entering a setting where they end up trailing a field that they once led, we will see a lot of growth of Chinese interests. In all this, do you really think that it will stop at a mere 5G walkie talkie? No, with 5G automation and deeper learning, we will see a larger field of dash boarding, information and facilitation to the people and Huawei will optionally rule that field soon enough, with a few non Americans nipping at their heels for dominance because that is the nature of the beast as well. Progress is a game for the hungry and some players (specifically the US) have forgotten what it was like to be hungry. Australian Telstra made similar mistakes and moved their Share price of $6.49 to $3.08 in the stage of 3 years, a 52% loss of value, and when (not if) Huawei pushed the borders all over the place, those people with a Verizon Protective State of Mind will end up seeing Verizon going in a similar setting, because that is also the consequence of adhering to what I would consider to be a form of nationalistic nepotism. The UK already had its ducks in a row for the longest of times (and that island has less ground to cover, which is a distinct advantage), so there BT has options for now and over time they might adhere to some of their policies as is required, the US is not in that good a position and Huawei merely needs to flash a medium purse of cash to show the people in the US that a place like Buenos Aires can offer the masses more and faster than those on better incomes in the US, because the pricing model allows for such a shift.

In this the problem is not a short term one, even as US giants are supposed to have the advantage, we also see that the workforce is not properly adhered to, the US (and the UK) have a massive, not a large, but a massive disadvantage when it comes to STEM students, a disadvantage that China does not have. The AI field is not something that is solved over the next 3 years, so as those with educations in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics is dwindling to some degree in commonwealth nations and America, China can move full steam as the next generation is pushed into high end ambition and careers. As such the entire AI shortfall against America can be overcome much easier by places like China and India at present. It is not merely the stage of more graduated students; it is about groups of graduated students agreeing on paths towards breakthrough solutions. No matter how savant one student is, a group is always more likely to see the threat and weakness of a certain path and that is where the best solution is found faster.

Will we ‘Fight the Future’?

The issue is not the American polarised view, it is the correctly filtered view that Alex Younger gave us initially, it is not incorrect to have a nationalistic protective view and Alex gave the correct stage on having a national product to use, which is different from the Canadian and Australian path proclaimed. We agree that it is in a national required state to have something this critical solved in a national way (when possible that is), in this the path to have a Huawei 5G stage and then reengineer what is required is not wrong, yet it is optionally with a certain risk and when that path is small enough, it is a solution. The UK is largely absolved as it had BT with the foundations of the paths required, just as Australia has Telstra, yet some countries (like Australia) become too complacent, BT was less complacent and they have knowledge, yet is it advanced enough? We agree that they can get up to speed faster, yet will it be fast enough? I actually do not know, I have no data proving the path in one direction or the other. What is clear is that a race with equal horses provides the best growth against one another, the competitiveness and technological breakthroughs that we have seen for the longest time. That path has largely been made redundant in the US and Australia (I cannot say for certain how that is in Canada).

Even as Huawei is gaining speed and being ahead of it all is still a race by one player, the drive to stay ahead is only visible on the global field, and it is an uncertain path, even if they have all the elements in their favour, what is clear is that this advantage will remain so for the next 5 years and unless certain nations make way for budgets growing the STEM pool by well over 200% their long term disadvantage remains in place.

The versusians

In this stage we need to look in the pro and con Huawei field. In the pro field, as Huawei set the stage for global user growth, which they are seemingly doing, they have the upper hand and they will grow to a user base that grows from servicing a third of the internet users to close to 50%, that path is set with some certainty and as such their advantage grows. In the opposition of that, players like need to step away from the political empty headed failure of enabling the one champion stage of Verizon and Telstra, diversity would give the competitive drive and now it is merely Telstra versus Vodafone/TPG, is means that there will be a technological compromise stage where none of the two surges ahead giving players like Huawei a much larger advantage to fuel growth,

How wrong am I likely to be?

So far I have been close to the mark months in advance compared to the big newspapers only giving partial facts long after I saw it coming, so I feel that I remain on the right track here. The question is not merely who has the 5G stage first, it will be who will facilitate 5G usage more complete and earlier than the others, because that is where the big number of switchers will be found and players like TPG and Vodafone have seen the impact of switchers more than once, so they know that they must be better and more complete than the other brand. Huawei knows it too, they saw that part and are still seeing the impact that goes all the way back to the P7, and that is where Apple also sees more losses, We were informed a mere 9 hours ago: “Piper Jaffray cuts its Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) price target from $250 to $222 saying that recent supplier guidance cuts suggest “global unit uptake has not met expectations.”” another hit of a loss to face, optionally a mere 11.2% yet in light of the recent losses, they faced, we see what I personally feel was the impact of the ridiculous stage of handing the audience a phone of $2369, optionally 30% more expensive than the choice after that one, even if the number two is not that much less in its ability. The stage where marketeers decide on what the people need, when they all need something affordable. It personally feels like the iMac Pro move, a $20K solution that less than 0.3% of the desktop users would ever need, and most cannot even afford. That is driving the value of Apple down and Huawei knows that this egocentric stage is one that Apple et al will lose, making Huawei the optional winner in many more places after the first 5G hurdles are faced by all.

Do you still think that Apple is doing great? A company that went from a trillion to 700 billion in less than 10 weeks, which is an opportunity for the IOS doubters to now consider Huawei and Samsung, even as Huawei will statistically never get them all, they will get a chunk and the first move is that these users moved away from IOS, and as Android users they are more easily captured towards user hungry players like Huawei by its marketing, that is the field that has changed in the first degree and as people feel comfortable with Huawei, they will not consider getting more Huawei parts (like routers for the internet at home) and that continues as people start moving into the 5G field. You see, we can agree that it is mere marketing (for now), yet Huawei already has its 5G Customer-premises Equipment (as per March 2018). this implies that with: “compatible with 4G and 5G networks, and has proven measured download speeds of up to 2Gbps – 20 times that of 100 Mbps fiber“, that they can buy their router now, remain on 4G and when their local telecom is finally ready, 5G will kick in when the subscription is correct. It is as far as I can tell the first time that government telecom procedures are vastly behind the availability to the consumer (an alleged speculation from my side).

Do you think that gamers and Netflix people will not select this option if made available? That is what is ahead of the coming options and that is the Future that some are fighting. It is like watching a government on a mule trying to do battle with a windmill, the stage seems that ridiculous and as we move along, we will soon see the stage being ‘represented’ by some to state on the dangers that cannot (or are ignored) to be proven.

The moment other devices are set towards the 5G stage, that is when more and more people will demand answers from industrial politicians making certain claims and that is when we see the roller-coaster of clowns and jesters get the full spotlight. This is already happening in Canada (at https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/12/13/huawei-and-5g-experts-clash-on-the-risk-to-canadas-national-security/), where City News (Ottawa) gives us: “I can’t see many circumstances, other than very extreme ones, in which the Chinese government would actually risk Huawei’s standing globally as a company in order to conduct some kind of surveillance campaign“, something I claimed weeks ago, so nice for the Canadian press to catch up here, in addition when we are given: ““This can be used for a lot of things, for manipulation of businesses to harvesting of intellectual property,” Tobok said. “On a national security level, they can know who is where at any given time. They can use that as leverage to jump into other operations of the government.” those people knowingly, willingly and intentionally ignore the fact that Apps can do that and some are doing it already. The iPhone in 2011 did this already. We were given: “Privacy fears raised as researchers reveal file on iPhone that stores location coordinates and timestamps of owner’s movements“, so when exactly was the iPhone banned as a national security hazard? Or does that not apply to any Commonwealth nation when it is America doing it? Or perhaps more recent (January 2018), when Wired gave us: “the San Francisco-based Strava announced a huge update to its global heat map of user activity that displays 1 billion activities—including running and cycling routes—undertaken by exercise enthusiasts wearing Fitbits or other wearable fitness trackers. Some Strava users appear to work for certain militaries or various intelligence agencies, given that knowledgeable security experts quickly connected the dots between user activity and the known bases or locations of US military or intelligence operations.” So when Lt. Walksalot was mapping out that secret black site whilst his Fitbit was mapping that base location every morning job, was the Fitbit banned? Already proven incursions on National security mind you, yet Huawei with no shown transgressions is the bad one. Yes, that all made perfect sense. I will give Wesley Wark, a security and intelligence specialist who teaches at the University of Ottawa a pass when he gives us: “Still, Canada can’t afford to be shut out of the Five Eyes or play a diminished role in the alliance, and if Britain decides to forbid Huawei from taking part in its 5G networks, Canada could not be the lone member to embrace the company“, OK that is about governmental policy, not unlike Alex Younger there is a claim to be made in that case, not for the risk that they are or might be, but the setting that no government should have a foreign risk in place. This is all fine and good, but so far the most transgressions were American ones and that part is kept between the sheets (like catering to IBM for decades), or leaving the matter largely trivialised.

It is pointless to fight the future, you can merely adhere to swaying the direction it optionally faces and the sad part is that this sway has forever been with those needing to remain in power, or to remain in the false serenity that status quo brings (or better stated never brings). True innovation is prevented from taking grasp and giving directional drive and much better speeds and that too is something to consider, merely because innovation drives IP, the true currency of the future and when we deny ourselves that currency we merely devaluate ourselves as a whole. In this we should agree that denying innovation has never ever resulted in a positive direction, history cannot give us one example when this worked out for the best of all.

 

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December 3, 2018 · 11:15

Heating at what price?

We all know it; in winter it is about the heating, in summer about the quality of the fan, in addition, we need to make sure that apart from food, and drinks that we have the proper attire. We have known this for almost a lifetime. So even as this is known in the US, President Trump decided to have a conversation with Saudi Arabia to increase production to keep prices down. It seems really nice that Saudi Arabia came forward, yet they had no practical reason to do that did they? Not in an age of bullet points, business cases and maximised profit.

Oil is a commodity, and in the professional world of business, you have to go for the buy low, sell high equation if you want to be in business. So I was surprised to the extent that Saudi Arabia was facilitating towards America.

Yet this is seemingly coming to a halt when Bloomberg treats us to: ‘Putin Says Russia and Saudi Arabia to Extend OPEC+ Oil Pact‘. In itself the title does not give the US the warning that they need to read, the text does however give us: “OPEC, which pumps four-in-ten barrels produced worldwide, will convene in Vienna on Dec. 6 to discuss output cuts after oil prices in November suffered the largest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008” the article also gives us “an advisory group to OPEC told ministers the market is oversupplied, with a need to cut about 1.3 million barrels a day from October levels“, apart from Bloomberg, there were several others showing the news, adding their own political flavour towards facilitation and that will be discussed soon enough. The shape here is not merely that there is oil in the Al Saud family, it is the fact that they are (as any good business does) trying to maximise what they have. People seem to forget that. It might seem a buyers’ market, but that is merely the presentation, once production stops for 12% or more that balance will change really quickly. Let those who want it somewhere else, go somewhere else. The direct impact is that it merely drives prices faster. Even as there is an oversupply, the entire setting seems to be focussed on getting past this winter, the players are in error not to focus on the next winter, for that part will be impacted and it will be a large impact.

As the conversation between Russia and Saudi Arabia continues, whether or not it is some OPEC+ setting, the setting that is evolving is one that I mentioned in ‘Two issues in play‘ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/11/20/two-issues-in-play/). The day after we saw Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) giving the statement that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was “unstable and unreliable”. So as we were treated to ‘Putin says Russia, Saudis agree to renew OPEC production cuts‘ mere moments ago. How much reserve is there? How long until the prices are raised, optionally just before Christmas as a speculative Ebenezer Scrooge bonus to your household?

The entire matter was just waiting for an opportunity to happen, as we see this unfold over the next few days, we will see additional parts too. The best example that anyone who served knows is that there are three people you do not mess with. The first is your Supply officer, the second is the payroll officer and the last one is the cook. These three are sacred and you leave them alone. So why push the person who is a supply officer, that impacts your payroll officer (as you end up with a fair amount less) and that in turn unbalances what the cook gives you as you cannot afford a full meal. As the price of food goes up, as we see clear data from several sources (Washington Post and HILDA) that larger groups of workers have been on stalling incomes for years now, have I made a clear enough point? When the total income is the same and food prices go up, what would you surrender to the currents of loss, once you realise that fuel prices will be on the rise as well?

In anticipated opposition, don’t give me that ‘ethics regarding Jamal Khashoggi‘ routine, because the bulk of the US senate and US congress have not made any noise regarding all those journalists (well over 240, with over 140 wanted) in Turkish prisons, several of them for life. Not much noise is there? The fact that Turkey isn’t getting slammed for being an ally of Iran is still a mystery, yet there might be some European need there, especially around some ‘nuclear accord’.

Even as I anticipate some reaction in all this, we must also heed the opposition in this. Here I call for Oilprice dot com. Martin Tillier gives us (at https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Output-Cuts-May-Be-Coming-But-Dont-Bet-on-It.html): “Crude oil has been in freefall, with both Brent and WTI having lost around a third since hitting highs in early October. There are some demand related worries involved as trade wars threaten to slow global growth, but the biggest reasons for the drop are supply related. A couple of months ago, those highs were achieved in anticipation of a disruption to global supply as the Trump administration’s abandonment of the Iran nuclear deal with Iran and the resulting sanctions took effect. Since then though, a few things have become clear. Firstly, U.S. production has been stepped up by more than imagined. In addition, the Saudis increased their output to help offset the expected loss from Iran but, most importantly in that context, that loss doesn’t look likely to materialize“, he goes on giving us the tough talk part and he is right. Whether we see it as political windbags or perhaps merely a storm in a cup of tea, the impact is not merely some good needed, it is a larger issue that goes beyond supply and demand. Just like the predicted shortage of concrete for the building of Neom city. Those who saw it have been upping their ability for production. Several have doubled it and there is a chance that the UAE will have its own large concrete facility soon enough. As Saudi Arabia could decide to cut production, it could in addition merely seek to seel part of it elsewhere. The end result is the same, yet that trajectory will be much slower. For the current administration it is about getting past this winter, with the next winter being a larger impact on the elections, so it will also impact the cost of living all over the US.

CNBC gives support here (at https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/28/expect-a-saudi-first-policy-on-oil-production-cuts-regardless-of-trumps-demands-analysts-say.html). It is early days and what we anticipate or expect does not usually happen, yet with “Analysts believe that despite Washington’s geopolitical leverage over the kingdom, after its staunch defense of the Saudi monarchy amid accusations over its alleged role in the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Riyadh will still pursue its own economic interests rather than abide by the wishes of President Trump. The pivotal question hanging over oil markets remains that of production cutbacks. Who will tighten their taps, and by how much?” This is the game for now and even as it is all set in common sense, the one part we cannot anticipate is ‘by how much?‘, I predicted a rough 12% a week before this article came out and so far, the fact that it is still likely to happen before the end of the year, optionally before before Christmas, it does remain to be a the speculative part for now. I expect Russia to try and get a consensus with Saudi Arabia to go well over 12%, optionally closer to 20%. It is essential for Russia, it will be good to the super wealthy oil friends that President Putin has and it will also bring joy to the coffers of the Saudi Monarchy. The question is who can pick up that slack and how fast. The US has its own facilities in it, yet could they keep up? Leave it to the US to piss off 3 of the top 5 producers, which leaves Iraq and they do not have the working infrastructure, moreover, volatility is still their middle name for now, as well as the fact that they merely produce 16% of the other three that the US insulted (more than once I might add).

So will oil prices go up? If the US is set on its current policy, the issue of oil prices is a given certainty, the fact that they will go up before winters end seems more and more likely, yet by how much is not to be anticipated. In this Saudi Arabia, merely needs to have a ‘technical glitch’ and the pumps go down twice for 2-3 days, and the damage is done. At that point, Saudi Arabia merely has to drop production for 15%-20% until the technical matter is ‘resolved’ and all the US can do is pray for Saudi Arabia to accept the assistance of their engineers. Although as Saudi engineers go, their knowledge might be (vastly) superior in all this, they have had plenty of time to get ahead of the curve for some time now.

Should this happen, what will the US do? Throw a tantrum; throw a curveball? I am eager to find out, because the entire journalist part is still a matter for discussion. You all seem to know Jamal Khashoggi. Yet how many of you know Mehmet Topaloğlu, killed by the Turkish police, as was Metin Göktepe. Then we see Önder Babat, Serena Shim, Rohat Aktaş and Yaşar Parlak. The Turkish authorities have shown less than 0.5% effort here when comparing it to Jamal Khashoggi and the silence from the US in these deaths (a few of many) have been deafening, we can ignore the European Union in all this as they seemingly do not care. So when I made the claim that Jamal Khashoggi is merely a convenient puppet to hit Saudi Arabia with, I knew what I was talking about. When we see that inaction is the natural state, the entire Jamal Khashoggi was a game of political players, emotions used to drive an audience, an audience giving Google search currently well over 72 million hits when we see for that JK journalist. Try that with one of the other murdered or imprisoned journalists in Turkey, they are not even a blip on the radar. It is my speculative thought that Neom and the future drive by Saudi Arabia scared the US as it did several European players. It is the first time in history that a Middle Eastern nation has the ability to put the US and EU to shame with their lack of technological progress. They claim to have it, yet Saudi Arabia is making a move towards ‘showing to have it‘, changing the game for both the US and Europe.

This is where we see the difference. China and Russia see this as an opportunity, whilst Europe and the US are seeing it as an inconvenience. In Europe it seems that only Salini Impregilo is taking the charge of that future, having scored already well over half a billion in contracts, the rest of the players are either under the surface or not there at all. Is that not odd either? When we see close to a trillion dollars in opportunities in Saudi Arabia, the noise should be deafening but it is not.

How does that matter?

Well, if oil fuels the coffers, the daily input is more than enough to warrant actions, yet I see not activity anywhere, not to the degree it should have. In all this, within a day I found a way to revolutionise information using 5G (designing a new device in the process), and there we see opportunity, a pilot the size of a city that could have global repercussions and no one is there. I cannot be the only player in town, my ego would never be that delusional, yet there is not activity at all. It makes sense that it is not out in the open, yet some people would have to file for concepts, optionally for patents and I see the light of at least 4 of them right there, yet there is no visible action, and believe me, as a Master of Intellectual property law, I do know where to look.

Karma kicks greed’s ass

We have all seen the news when it comes to Huawei and the list of those banning them is growing, there too we see that China has a vested interest in making a local company a true success and there we see the options too. So when we consider the Verizon offer: “As part of a 10-year agreement, Verizon will expand its wireless small cell infrastructure to build out its existing 4G LTE network and prepare for 5G deployment, with streamlined permitting from the City of Boston. TV licensing will also be amended to support an expansion of Verizon’s Fios TV service to more neighborhoods“, it came in 2016. So consider the actual wording ‘as part of a 10-year agreement‘ and ‘prepare for 5G deployment‘, by the letter, it implies that Boston will optionally not have 5G before 2026, in this it could optionally have been in the foundations of Neom by 2021 (depending on then the first buildings are completed). It would be a kick in the nuts for the US to have something operational after Saudi Arabia, does it not?

Karma bites like Piranha if need be.

This all impacts the oil price, because the Saudi Crown Prince is driven to get Neom right, it also impacts the coffers so whatever is done regarding the oil, would optionally not be allowed to endanger Neom. I cannot prove that, yet I am decently certain that this is the case. We can see this as an opportunity, that as the US seeks options, it can make other offers to offset the optional ‘loss’ to Saudi Arabia. If enabling can be done in money or goods, offering goods is still an optional path to take for the US, yet they too need to realise that the overly visible acts of playing the ‘Khashoggi blues’ whilst not making any noise on the ‘Turkey newspaper shuffle’ is going to be a debate soon enough, especially as there is enough evidence that Turkey has been facilitating for Iran.

In the end

In the end it is about the oil prices and I expect them to go up regardless of what happens, yet there is leverage to a small extent, the amount of price increase is one that could be under negotiation. The question is, will we see proper actions by the US and Europe to limit the price increase and the impact on their citizens? I expect to see an answer to that part within the next two weeks.

Have a fun Monday!

 

 

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