Category Archives: Finance

What is it?

You know the setting that came (if I remember correctly) from the original TV-series ‘The Untouchables. The start was always “the names have been changed to protect the innocent”, what if it becomes “The names have been changed for the progression of greed”? As such we get:

This was a simple story, I am all about the stories and about the settings of an RPG. In that setting you cannot have a one track mind and as I see it the people forcing us into advertisements for the need of greed, need to be stopped. I am not against advertisements, I am against forcing it down our throats, which is why some of the IP I created will not allow advertisements and that is how I see it. Some will be fine with it, others are not (the greedy people). And I created this setting to fight the overwhelming setting of greed.

And I needed a hobby for this Sunday. What is more lovely than to create an offset to ‘Microsoft’s ad revenues surge 19% in latest quarter’ with this? So do I mind that they recorded Revenues were $64.7 billion, Net income was $22 billion. No, I do not. It is wrong to okay Google and say it is wrong for Microsoft to make that penny. I believe that it is wrong to force it down out throats. That where marketeers come into play. And they must be stopped, their hinger for advertising is insatiable and my idea stops it to some extent. When the world does something to stop insatiable greed we will have a chance, but I won’t hold my breath. So my creative mind selected an idea to stop them. Creativity yay. 

Have a lovely day.

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Calling a bluff

That happens, some people bluff and others tend to call the bluff. That is the setting that president elect Trump called on himself. We all heard how the upcoming Trump administration called the setting that they opened. They threatened the Canadian Trudeau administration on tariffs when “Trump threatened in a social media post to apply devastating levies of 25% on all goods and services from both Mexico and Canada, vowing to keep them in place until “such time as drugs, in particular fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country!”” As I see it, a larger setting that the US called upon itself. The war on drugs has been going on since June 17, 1971, during which President Richard Nixon declared drug abuse “public enemy number one”. I get that, drugs are the filth of any civilisation. Perhaps America could have changed tactics decades ago, when it was set to ‘the black population’, being white an wealthy enabled cocaine habits, all whilst crack users got the bulk of the heavy punishment. I cannot voice any opinion because it is too far from my bed. Yet the media used that setting to give us “New Jack City” and “Boys N the Hood” with an entertaining “Cocaine bear” for good measure. I reckon that “Traffic” is one of the best views on the subject (there are many I never saw).

So after half a century of failure the President elect Trump now blame the neighbouring countries. Well two can play at that. In the first I suggest any American arrested on drug charges (outside of USA) get the death penalty. No options, no trials, just point and click the gun. In the second we consider the stage that Ontario’s premier, Doug Ford is suggesting (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/12/canada-ontario-premier-trump-tariffs). With ‘Ontario leader threatens to halt energy exports to US if Trump imposes tariffs’. This is actually not a bad move (better than my idea). At present we have the idea that Canada’s revenue from electricity exports to the United States hit a record high of C$ 5.8bn. Quebec is the largest exporter, with Ontario following second at 13.9m megawatt-hours of power sent south. Of course the setback is that Ontario loses that near essential revenue. But consider that America loses 13.9m megawatt-hours of power which adds to the hardship America has at present and the next 2 quarters that hardship could be seen as close to debilitating. 

So should the Trump administration push the tariff bluff, the payback that follows is nothing short of a banger of a payback. I see all these bad press moments of Doug Ford, I cannot answer whether they are valid, but I reckon this one is on point and only 6 hours ago we were also given ‘Ontario premier suggests stopping US liquor imports over Trump tariff threat’ (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/13/ontario-trump-tariff-liquor) not a big thing for the non alcoholics and lets face it, Ryan Reynolds gives us Gin (perhaps soon Canadian Gin too), Dan Ackroyd (part Canadian) gives us Crystal Head Vodka and Canada also has its Whiskey types. As such, it will hurt America a lot more than it will Canada. 

There are other drinks that come from outside of the USA. There is Jenever (Dutch Gin, Netherlands), Gin (UK), Aquavit and Absolute Vodka (Sweden) not to mention the dozen of wines from the French speaking regions (like France). Oh, and Raki and Ouzo are Greek. As such plenty of non-American options. As I personally see it, the response to the Trump bluff will be countered in a few ways and it is my belief that the Trump Administration will be forced to do a 180 degree on the spot, that is if they would like to keep their other ventures running somewhat smooth. 

I personally think that Doug Ford called an upcoming bluff in several ways and all are promising answers to the situation that Canada is in no way to blame for. So what do they want? A 8,891 km wall? Who pays for that? As I see it, the war was essential for a long time, but as the ‘law’ unfairly differentiate the rich and the pour on drugs, this was never going in any direction fast. 

It seemed like such an easy solution but that was never go down well, because the complexities that American law allowed for made it way too complex (as I personally see it).

Have a great weekend, Toronto joins un on this Saturday in 2 hours.

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Demands from the people

That is what buzzed through my mind when I was confronted with ‘Australia wants to make digital platforms pay for news — even if they block it, like Meta did here’ a mere hour ago (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/australia-social-media-ban-1.7408426) You see, the media (and politics) are so willing to make social media the bad apple. It must come at a price. 

I have more issues with “The Australian government said Thursday it will tax large digital platforms and search engines unless they agree to share revenue with Australian news media organisations.” You see, soon others (like game makers) will rely on other means to get revenue and this is a handle that allows them to get a slice of it. Of course there are all kinds of ways that these are monitored and that will open even more doors. To be honest I look at Australian media less then a dozen times a year at present. They are that much trivialised by themselves. 

As such Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones and Communications Minister Michelle Rowland created a new problem (as I see it). How to police the media, because that is the second hurdle. There is at that point no longer “the people have a right to know”, it becomes all the people should get to know. The difference seems trivial, but it is not. And as a third base, it is no longer an option to filter the news. Stakeholders and share holders do not get to tell the audience that it is in their best interest. No, no, it all becomes available to everyone at that point. I wonder how long it will take for political parties to see that they tied their own shoelaces together. 

As such it will (I speculate) too long for the media to seek another path to managing their own news. And the bar will be set massively low when other parties hide behind ‘right to express yourself’ into a setting not unlike ‘we communicate our news to the world’ and that is merely the beginning. Soon thereafter every cause will have a ‘news’ cycle because they are given free money by the Australian government. I think that Meta, Google and TikTok are already aware of that danger. It seems like the media will soon see the demand from the people and some will see this as ‘newsworthy’ demanding a few coins from Google (et al) in the process. 

As I see it, there will soon be a rush for coins from nearly every location. Have a great Friday, I am about to gander to the breakfast table.

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Sheep to the slaughter

There was a view, I agreed but not for the same reasons. I agree that Brexit was needed but for different reasons. You see, I saw the EU corruption for what it was. A setting where banks had their own little club, the club of 22. And there we saw Mario Draghi was a welcomed sight. I was hesitant to see it for good. Even as Mark Carney had its own ideas, he was right. Brexit was the way and the way was going to be hard. Now we see the Guardian embraces the story ‘Majority of Brexit voters ‘would accept free movement’ to access single market’, the carrot for idiots. There was no free movement, there was merely what others would allow us to do and that free movement comes at a price. So as we are given “A majority of Britons who voted to leave the EU would now accept a return to free movement in exchange for access to the single market, according to a cross-Europe study that also found a reciprocal desire in member states for closer links with the UK.” Yes but at a price. Now that the ‘settings’ are reset, the stupidity of the EU opens up again. The EU was on the verge of collapse as they are in denial of the consequences. You see we are given “85% of the EU’s debt has been incurred since 2020” but the story was worse, much worse. The debt of the EU has been calculated at €14,300,832,000,000 it was that bad (still is), the breaking through Brexit made sure that the UK was no longer held to account to that debt. Now that the trolls and corrupt ‘friends’ of the Euro got their stories to account going on since 31 January 2020 they finally won and the reset is about to take place (the fact that the idiot Keir Starmer assisted in the matter was a great help to the EU). What is the matter? Well in part they are right, the UK benefits from the strength of the EU matters on one side, the opposing setting is also true. A family with 27 family members and I reckon that 6 or them are nothing less than a newer version of the village idiot. They have a voice, but they also were chomping at the bit to get access to the credit card of the EU and that is not a good thing. The second that the banks come in, the setting will be final. The Greeks are loving this. There is every chance that the Greeks will blow out their debt again. The reason is simple, they don’t have what it takes and they take what everyone else has. That was an I personally think is the remaining setting. They are not alone, but they were the most visible one in 2019. Now that stage will erupt again. The EU doesn’t have the checks and balances it needs to stop that level of idiocy. 

We are also given “The report found about half of Britons believed greater engagement with the EU was the best way to bolster the UK economy (50%), strengthen security (53%), effectively manage migration (58%), tackle climate change (48%), allow Ukraine to stand up to Russia (48%), and for Britain to stand up to the US (46%) and China (49%).” My issue becomes. What data? How was the data collected? When we see ‘effectively manage migration (58%)’ how many want to push their migration numbers to UK? How many are are anti China minded? As we are given ‘for Britain to stand up to China (49%)’, are they sure they meant ‘for Britain to stand up for China’ and in all this the new markers are presented and not given towards the Middle East. That becomes a nastier kettle of fish. In the end, when the tally is shaped there will be anger towards the media for not letting us know the truth. I reckon that at some point media moguls will go the way of Brian Thompson but now with a mere rope and a tree as support for their distrust of the media. We are almost at that tipping point and reversing Brexit will give us the stage in 12 months or less. At that point the finger pointing starts and the media will lose whatever support they had. As I personally see it, the largest issue is seen in the last paragraph. With: “The Brexit-era divisions have faded and both European and British citizens realise that they need each other to get safer. Governments now need to catch up with public opinion and offer an ambitious reset.” One side is the media “British citizens realise that they need each other to get safer” and this is largely because a false picture was given for years and as this is shown to be wrong, the people will go for the throat of the media. This is no longer the 90’s where the media had overwhelming powers. Now they are held to account and optionally with their lives. As for the ‘ambitious reset’ this is largely enabled by banks and their need for the reset of their credit cards. What comes next will be the stuff of nightmares. It won’t happen directly, it will be a soft landing, like landing in a pool of molten lead. Within a year the UK will get their new demands handed to them and that will be the game, the EU (Germany) will win and suddenly they will they will side with Russian demands. As such the Ukraine will suffer and the EU will suffer too. The Americans will hand Russia through the Republican Party. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to say the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine (42% vs. 13%) (source: Pew research Centre). And when that comes to blow, America will distance from the EU. It was too hard and they have too little cash left. A setting that was always come to pass. As such the anti-China sentiment was in favour of America, as they pushed their goods. So how long do you think that setting will last? In all this, the solution to embrace the Middle East and China was a larger option then anyone thinks. It gave the EU breathing space against Russia. Now the UK is in the mix and the only option (I believe they have) is to open the door to BRICS and China. It don’t think it is a good option, but it is better to see that then to see the new maps of 2040’s stating Netherlands Oblast (or more likely Holland Oblast). That danger is more and more real as America lets the Republican setting of “U.S. support for Ukraine” getting smothered to death.

As I personally see it, Europeans are leading themselves as lambs to the slaughter. What a disgusting end to the foundry of civilisation (1095 – 2040). 

Could I be wrong? I hope I am, but the wrong people got to speak at media events and I am keeping a list of media people who are leading the run towards the gallows. Like the Dutch writer Marga Minco who wrote Bitter herbs (1957). As the character in that book who through the personal inside of people decided who was handed to the devils and who went the way of angels. I reckon that not many media people are going the way of angels. And those howling that they merely viewed that the people had a right to know will see the digital age as the one serving them, not the people. There needs to be a tally, especially of the media.

Have a great day and if you are with the media, the gallows are down the lane to the left, overlooking the emptiness of the fields of bankruptcy.

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The revolving question

That is at times in almost everything the setting. We might all go nuts about ‘mismanaging’ settings and I am to a certain degree not impervious to that setting. But after writing ‘The losing bet’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/12/08/the-losing-bet/) I started to mull things over. You see, people like Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan are not stupid. But there is a dangerous calm as people are given the questions and are given ‘a kind of answer’ and Microsoft is massively adapt in setting the stage to THEIR advantage and I suddenly realised a simpler setting. When was the question asked of Microsoft ‘What is AI?’ And ‘What is the premise of what you call AI?’ With ‘What is the data setting of AI?’ In this I reckon that some eyes will open. We see all settings of Ai mentioned, but the clear definition and a comparison to the setting that Alan Turing gave us 1950, moreover together with John McCarthy gave us the Turing test. So how far did people dig into this part of the equation? You might disagree with me on my stance of AI and that is okay. We do not all see eye to eye on a whole range of matters. But in this, in a Texas Hold’em style of business poker it becomes increasingly important to set the stage of definitions and hold them up to the light. In that game Microsoft doesn’t get to spin out of the stage ad blame it all on miscommunication. In that stage Microsoft has to hide into the margins or come out into the light. The second stage is likely and very pleasing to my ego.

You see, when people are part of a $1.5 billion investment there are people who are not pleased with that fact and they will nitpick any document handed to them. One of the oldest settings was ‘What are the definitions?’ Was in older days the way to see what players were up to and that stage got a little lost in populism and ‘fast’ presentations appeasing to the spending player. You might think that it is Microsoft paying, but you would be wrong. The UAE and G42 are investing time and resources to make it all work and I foresee that players like Microsoft (not just them) are trying to play fast and loose with definitions so that they can bank the first agreements and then turn back and hide behind ‘miscommunications’ after that fact. Which is why we have the clear setting of definitions. As such making all players answer that question gives a first setting. You see, there is no AI at present and that comes out at that very start. And no matter how clever LLM’s and Deeper Machine Learning is, the setting becomes data and who is responsible of that data. Now we get different players out and in the full-grown light. People like Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan will then immediately see who is endangering the security of the UAE and they have no sense of humour at that point. No matter how some see the ‘opportunity’ of a life time, the moment the national pride comes into view of danger, the UAE will demand clarity on matters and I reckon some will ‘trivialise’ matters and when you ‘invest’ $1.5 billion there is an issue with trivialisation (which is why I referred to a Texas Hold’em style). Now some will say that I am bluffing and I want to be ‘inserted’ as a possible player. You would be wrong. I do not want to be linked to a player like Microsoft in any way. Google, Amazon, Adobe, IBM and Oracle definitely, Microsoft not at all. As such I am not anti-American (a claim that was thrown at me several times in the past). I am anti-stupid (mostly) and when you start trivialising $1.5 billion I see you as stupid, and no matter what I think of Microsoft, they are not overly stupid. In some things yes, in other things (like playing black letter law stages) not that much. 

But all that becomes moot when some players release the definition lists to all we will see how silly my thoughts are, because these definitions go through the entire project and there is no way they get changed unless all parties openly agree. Oh and before you think that this is a ploy. You might be right. You see, I do not know where China is at present ad I would live to find out. So what is better then Microsoft setting the entire definition list to paper and release it all? I reckon we will see a Chinese response less then 48 hours alter. 

The revolving question is an almost needed stage because definitions on paper is what matters, if it isn’t written down it doesn’t exist. That has been a matter long before the Prince by Niccolò Machiavelli. I reckon it goes back to the days of Gaius Julius Caesar Augustus (63BC-14). So this setting was known for 2000 years and with all the turbo presentations and innuendo I get the feeling it got lost in the woodwork of it all. As such I thought it was a great idea to remind people of that. 

Silly me, have a great day.

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To box office, or not to box office

That is the question and the question is valid as the movies opened up in 2018 with a revenue of $2.6m, seems little but in the few years that passed, annual revenue went up to a quarter of a billion, as such screen daily kept an eye on the Saudi market (at https://www.screendaily.com/features/is-saudi-arabias-box-office-boom-over-or-set-to-rise-again/5199910.article) in that same setting I created the script ‘How to assassinate a politician’ about the assassination of Islamophobe Geert Wilders (the current prime minister of the Netherlands) the alternative title was ‘Essay’ (I came up with that later). I aimed it for the Arabic (Saudi Arabia/UAE) market. I contacted 2-3 player, but I never heard back from them. I thought that through streaming they could also get to the Egyptian market (as well as the Indonesian markets) The ‘bad vibe’ feelings in Indonesian markets might be well received. A Dutch politician getting the Sukarno treatment might keep Indonesian people on their couch watching the demise of the Prime Minister five times over. Anyway, those were my thoughts and it seems that they didn’t agree with me. Still the setting remains. As we get “At least one of the major exhibitor groups operating in Saudi is said to be exploring a possible sale amid high debt levels incurred during its rapid expansion. Last year, AMC Entertainment Holdings, the world’s biggest cinema chain, exited the Saudi market in the face of intense competition, selling to Saudi Entertainment Ventures (Seven), which is operated by the government’s Public Investment Fund.” The intense competition was why I tried the streamers as a possible interested party. We can think box office all we want, but in the end, the people need to be entertained at home. The last time I went to the cinema, it was $19 for the movie and popcorn and a soda set me back another tenner. That’s three months of Netflix. I reckon we need to consider the home office and for a lot of Saudi’s (as well as Indonesians, Egyptians and people in the UAE) the same setting is looming. It is not that streaming is better, it is merely more affordable. Now that Apple is getting more into Saudi Arabia, it will be soon that Apple TV is coming too (or already there). And with the setting of “Bidding wars for titles from major US sellers were common, but less so now. Minimum guarantees have dropped as a result, reflecting the reality of a market that has levelled out. “When Saudi opened up, almost any film would work. But now audiences are a lot more selective,” says the executive.” Makes me feel that there is still a chance of my script making it to the screens of people. The movie plays part in the Netherlands and part in Dammam (no real reason why I chose it) and one scene in Iran. The setting of a movie that deals with islamophobia was appealing to me, because it is something nearly any Islamic person is exposed to (especially in Europe) and as such I created an idea with my copy of Final Draft (given to me for that reason) and a stronger view is given with “One bright spot is the market for Arabic-language content, particularly from Egypt. The figures underline the executive’s point: the top five box-office films of the year so far include two Egyptian titles (action drama Sons Of Rizk 3 and romantic comedy Gawaza Toxic) and one Saudi comedy (Shabab El-Bomb). According to Comscore, Egyptian titles now account for an impressive 25% of the Saudi market, while local Saudi features have a 7% share. US films, by comparison, take 53% of box office in the country.” My movie is not in Arabic, but it was designed with the stage of an Arabic version in mind. I merely lack the language skills to make it directly in Arabic. Now I see that this setting is given with “Egyptian titles now account for an impressive 25%” gives me hope that my final curtain call is not here yet. Yes, it is hope because I had never written a script before this and as I look at the tally where beside ‘How to assassinate a politician’ I am working on ‘Kenos Diastima’ (a TV series in the making), ‘Engonos’ (TV series in the making) and ‘Residuam Vitam’ (mini series in the making). I created these series partly to keep my writing skills up and it wasn’t until ‘How to assassinate a politician’ had formed more completely in my mind that I decided to make it in a script (in Final Draft) and when I started pushing that title did I start to set the blackboard for ‘Residuam Vitam’ which is still forming. 

And as we see this we also need to take notice of Adon Quinn, CEO of Saudi exhibitor Muvi Cinemas, believes that Arabic content can help drive future growth. I am willing to agree, but that is really in my favour. You see it is nice that things go to cinema (happy to help), but I reckon that the streamers in the UAE (Dubai Media) and Saudi Arabia (Aloula) will make the larger difference. The need for Egypt and Indonesia seem clear and Indonesia with a population of 277 million potential viewers should not be underestimated. As Quinn tells us “He points out the wider Saudi box-office slowdown echoes what has happened in markets around the world this year. Its main cause, he says, is the depleted supply of content caused by Covid and last year’s Holly­wood actors and writers strikes. “The strikes had a big impact on the first half of 2024,” he observes. “We’ve seen when the right content is there, the audience is there.”” But he also exposes a problem. The depleted supply is seemingly due to Hollywood. Still tapping the Canadian, Swedish and western European markets might not be a bad idea. Especially as California is about to get a few additional issues and they are not yet polarised into tinseltown (Hollywood). 

There are definitely options for the Arabic market, but I reckon that the streamers will have a much better time they do not need a movie distribution system and they can get a lot of traction roping in a potential viewing group of well over 400,000,000 people. You can fish in a barrel, but the same barrel holding either 400 million or a mere 35 million, that is the setting as I see it and as I have noticed Dubai Media is ready to get on board with that setting (I saw it was ‘proclaimed’ by certain individuals on LinkedIn). 

The market is where you cater to it and I thought it was a good idea to cater to the Arabic markets. Have a great day.

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The losing bet

That happens, we make bets. We all do in one way or another. Some merely hurt our pride and/or our ego. Some deals hurt others and there are other settings, too many to mention. But Reuters alerted me three hours ago on a deal that will have a lot of repercussions. The article ‘US clears export of advanced AI chips to UAE under Microsoft deal, Axios says’ (at https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/advanced-ai-chips-cleared-export-uae-under-microsoft-deal-axios-reports-2024-12-07/) is one that has a few more repercussions than you imagined it had. The global loser (Microsoft) has set up a setting where we see “The U.S. government has approved the export of advanced artificial intelligence chips to a Microsoft-operated facility in the United Arab Emirates as part of the company’s highly-scrutinised partnership with Emirati AI firm G42, Axios reported on Saturday, citing two people familiar with the deal.” Microsoft is as desperate as I think they are with this deal. They probably pushed the anti-China agenda and made mention of the $1.5 billion dollar investment deal. And as we are given “The deal, however, was scrutinised after U.S. lawmakers raised concerns G42 could transfer powerful U.S. AI technology to China. They asked for a U.S. assessment of G42’s ties to the Chinese Communist Party, military and government before the Microsoft deal advances.” And we are also given “The approved export license requires Microsoft to prevent access to its facility in the UAE by personnel who are from nations under U.S. arms embargoes or who are on the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security’s Entity List, the Axios report said.” In this I have a few issues.

In the first there is no AI, not yet anyway as such the investment is going the way like water under a bridge. Microsoft knows this as such they are betting big and they have the US government backing them. In the worst case it will be the US government putting up the $1.5 billion themselves and with the anti-China sentiment that is a likely result from this.

In the second the setting that Microsoft is banking on is a loop setting with multiple exists. Yesterday the Financial Times informed us ‘OpenAI seeks to unlock investment by ditching ‘AGI’ clause with Microsoft’ (at https://www.ft.com/content/2c14b89c-f363-4c2a-9dfc-13023b6bce65) the events are piling up and as I see it Microsoft is on the edge if desperation. You see, it all hangs on the simplest setting that there is no AI (not yet at least). What we have is a setting with LLM’s and Deeper Machine Learning and it is clever and it is a ‘optional’ wholesome solution to a lot of paths. But it is no Artificial Intelligence. You see, as all the laws are part of ethics and ‘AI’ people look around and think that there is ‘awareness’ of solutions. There are not. It is all data managed, a somewhat clever solution to people seeking an aware-like solution in data and some kind of knowledge discovery mode. It all could be clever, but it is still no AI and at some point certain people will dig it out and I reckon the UAE will be ahead of it all. Microsoft and its Ferengi approach of ‘When you get their money you never give it back’ comes with nice loopholes. You think that Microsoft made the ‘investment’ now here is the cracker. There is nothing stopping Microsoft of putting it in a ‘bad bank’ approach and make it all tax deductible and then some. And when the “artificial general intelligence” (AGI) clause is dropped there will be all kinds of attention from all over the place and no one is looking at the details of whatever they consider AI and what Alan Turing clearly considered to be AI. When the people that matter start looking and digging the days of Microsoft will be numbered. Another bubble game created and now that they have ‘enticed’ the wrong kind of people they will want their pound of dollars. And as we are given “The Biden administration in October required the makers of the largest AI systems to share details about them with the U.S. government. G42 earlier this year said it was actively working with U.S. partners and the UAE’s government to comply with AI development and deployment standards, amid concerns about its ties to China.” And in that setting Microsoft decided to be the governmental bitch to say the least. And all these media moguls are so loosely playing along and what will happen when someone digs into this. They will play dumb and say “We didn’t comprehend the technology” and it wasn’t hard. I saw it months ago, if not nearly almost two years ago. And the media was stupid? No, the media goes the way of the digital dollar, the way of the emotional flame. So as the field opens, we see all kinds of turmoil with Microsoft claiming to be the ‘saviour’ all nice and kind (of a sort), but when you look at the setting, it is my personal speculated feeling that Microsoft wouldn’t have made this move unless they had very little moves left. And in this setting the one player is forgotten. China, how far along are their ‘designs’? And in all this what are their plans? We seem to be given the setting that it is all American, but as the media cannot be trusted what is the ACTUAL setting? I have no clue, but in a world this interactive, China cannot be far away. 

And if there are people who disagree, that is fair, but the actual setting is largely unknown. So when we get to the last paragraph which gives us “Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Company, the UAE’s ruling family and U.S. private equity firm Silver Lake hold stakes in G42. The company’s chairman, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, is the UAE’s national security advisor and the brother of the UAE’s president.” Consider this small fact. Microsoft seems to be ‘investing’ all whilst the anti-China rhetoric is given. Do you think that anyone who is the National Security Advisor (of the UAE) hasn’t seen through a lot of this? So what was the plan from Microsoft? I am at a loss, but with the AI setting the way it actually is none of this makes sense. Do they really believe that Microsoft is any kind of solution in this setting? Simply look at the accusation that Microsoft has also been criticised for the perceived declining quality and reliability of its software. That is your partner in so-called AI? Just a thought to consider.

Well, you all have a lovely Sunday. My Monday is a mere 80 minutes away.

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The price of debt.

That is what I am looking at, the price of debt. You see, they are all hailing that the US economy is strong. One voice (Goldman Sachs), the one that lost it all in 2007 told the world that America would be strong at 2.5% (somewhere I read it). To all it sounds nice and I like nice, but I also query a system that is to my (non-economic view) is rigged. As we see images all over the place on how good things are supposed to be, consider:

We see the setting as tax collected. For 2023 is was “The US government collected nearly $4.7 trillion in gross taxes during the 2023 fiscal year, which is a 15.5% decrease from 2022. The IRS collected taxes from a variety of sources”, now for some it is a little more then milk money. And that sounds nice, but the other side has “As of October 2024, the United States government’s monthly interest rate on its debt is 3.3%. The average interest rate for 2024 is 3.32%, and the total debt is $35.46 trillion.” Consider the simple setting of 3.32% of $35.46 trillion. This gives us $1,170,180,000,000 dollar annually. Which would be ‘liveable’ were it not for the simple fact that this is ONLY interest. The debt remains. And now we have a problem. You see the interest is is a simple 24.89% of the entire taxable revenue and it was 15.5% less from 2022. Do you now see the problem? 25% of all taxable revenue goes to the banks that carry the debt. The federal government spent $6.75 trillion in FY 2022. This means that they spend over 30% to much, more than they had and if there was no debt we could argue, but at this setting we are faced with the simple fact that $6.75 trillion was spent over an available amount of $3.5 trillion, which is getting worse and worse. As such we could surmise that the debt will increase with a little over 3 trillion over spending over last year alone. As I see it America is done for. And the setting worsens with the optional crushing of Google in 2025 (by breaking up that firm) which give Huawei their first global win. Then the defence industry is losing more and more revenue to China and this sets a larger premise. In that setting we see on one hand “The A&D industry generated $425 billion in economic value, representing 1.6 percent of the 2023 nominal GDP in the U.S.”, yet in this we already seeing revenue shifting to China in this year alone and more revenue goes to Europe. For Saudi Arabia alone this sets the bar at “In 2024, the Saudi Arabian defense budget is worth $71.7 billion and will grow at a CAGR of more than 8% during 2025-2029.” Yet other sources give us that “Saudi Arabia estimates military spending will be 15 percent lower than budgeted this year” as such we could surmise that this implies that Saudi Arabia by itself would spend $10 billion less. Not a biggie you say, but the other side is that China now has a little over 10% on that slice of delicious gunpowder baked pie. Making the loss for America more. As such we see an annual loss of $16 billion in one year alone from one customer. As such, what would be the books on India, Japan, Taiwan, Pakistan and Indonesia? If we see these picture, we see a dangerous escalation towards some fictive nil revenue for America. Fictive because that will never happen, but as the largest players seek economic stability they will spend less and take other jobs ‘in-house’ as the expression goes and America has been too reluctant to appease to that state of mind. And now China will step in to offer just that. As I see it, the question on the dollar setting was wrong. We are given “As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD” against the tariffs threat by president elect Trump. The actual question would become “How long could the US Dollar keep standing?” You see, as the debt becomes a millstone around the neck of the US administration, we need to consider that some nations will seek shelter from the fallout that this setting. In 2017, on March 17th I wrote ‘The finality of French freedom’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/), I set the comparison of the Euro like a barge kept in balance by 4 strong economies. UK, France, Germany and a combined economic anchor. The UK was lost and there was a setting when the French anchor would be lost too. The Euro could not survive a setting with two anchors. A simple equation. Now with the Dollar under attack the Euro could face near certain scuttling. As such the Dollar has an influence there. China seemingly doesn’t care, but the other players who make up a combined anchor might switch sides when they merely look at their own currency. And the debt? They will not care. And as such the dollar faces a lot more than the bully tactics of choice. They will need to up the game by a lot, because when one goes, so will the other and that puts the livelihood and liveability of 784 million people at the markers. 100,000 of them will do fine, but that represents a simple 0.01275348% of people who are likely to make it (outside of the EU and USA), so when were that good statistics? 

The price of debt was always there, but the media has been eager and willing to hide those facts through BS and spin and soon when the people catch on (the other 99.987% of people), the live of playing the media courtesan will be one of the most dangerous of them all. People remember. And it was a simple equation for the media. “You can fool all the people some of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time but you can never fool all of the people all of the time” A simple setting I knew to be true as early as the early 80’s. So how long did they have at most? Some are already falling in the bad light and when the people realise that they weren’t eating potatoes, but turnips. They will become massively enraged. 

A simple setting I have known to become reality at some point. So when are we given the goods? When the interest of the debt of America is shown as a setting against the budget and at this time it is around 25%, Americans need to realise that budgets need to diminish by at least 30%, so at what point do the people realise that the simplicity of the matter is that their money is about to be gone?

Have a lovely day.

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The premise was already set

There were some ‘noises’ on what I wrote yesterday and the ‘ludicrous’ setting of Huawei. Well, lets have a look then. The Corner (at https://thecorner.eu/news-spain/the-government-authorizes-saudi-stc-to-purchase-9-9-of-telefonica/117825/) gave us a few days ago ‘Government Authorises Saudi STC To Purchase 9.9% Of Telefonica’ It does not sound like much, but in that setting together with Egypt (as I reported in 2023) the Saudi Telecom Company was already aligning with Egypt and now as it is settling in Spain, Saudi Arabia has now a direct line of communications with the larger part of Europe. They already had Portugal and optionally also have parts of the United Group (details are not known to me).

Then when we see merely a day ago we get (at https://www.rcrwireless.com/20241202/featured/stc-huawei-5g-saudi-arabia) ‘stc, Huawei to enhance 5G connectivity in Saudi Arabia’ and now we get “Stc noted that this solution boosts operational speed by 200% compared to earlier models. Saudi telco stc and Huawei have announced the commercial rollout of SuperLink, a digital solution designed to enhance 5G connectivity across remote areas in Saudi Arabia.” So whilst we get the softer message from Nokia on 5G and we should forget 5G, because their 6G will be da bomb (slight personal tweaking). Yes, always look at the horizon whilst Huawei is upgrading 5G to something that resembles 5G+. Another fine mess the makers of yesterday’s technology bring us. There is however no timeline for 6G and whilst we hear all the wild stories, I have to argue that the organisations that remained in the dark for the longest of time, now has da bomb? I call that a dead mans bluff. Like what they had done before and nothing came from it. Now that China and Saudi Arabia are setting the new marker we see the setting I warned about in ‘The question remains’ on the 21st of December 2022, two years ago I warned of this setting and Now suddenly we get the Nokia news? (OK it has been out for some time), but we haven’t seen anything out in the open with tests and so forth. In that same time Huawei set the proof all over the place and with HarmonyOS they can go to town, especially if Google is forced to break itself up. And as others are forcing Huawei out, we merely see other telecom companies taking the Huawei lead and offering it to customers. We can see all the ‘bigger’ telecom brands heeding the words from the US and so far it lacked any evidence. New the stage will be set that Saudi Arabia could offer a cheaper solution to people in Europe, the Middle East and Asia a solution with Huawei. Now, we get the setting that the larger Telecom companies will have to compete for the same customers. And in that setting 33 million in Saudi Arabia, a slice of 115 million in Egypt and slices from Portugal and Spain giving them slices of 60 million people. And that is before we consider the fallout all over Europe. You see, in the end these other players need people to fuel part of their profits. The anti-China rhetoric from Trump with the added anti-Huawei rhetoric will fall flat. In the near future they have the numbers and now others are in trouble. I reckon that soon Saudi Arabia will make a play for other Vodafone areas. I have no idea how far they get, but any Telecom company that starts not making their numbers will jump on that churn bandwagon. All this whilst Huawei is breaking new boundaries. So whilst someone reported the great success Nokia is making others make mention that the new setting is coming in 2027 (a presumptuous setting as I haven’t see the full papers). So what of 2025 and 2026? A two year bluff sounds nice, but Huawei is giving us “Stc noted that this solution boosts operational speed by 200% compared to earlier models and significantly extends 5G reach without requiring extensive infrastructure, making it ideal for connecting remote regions efficiently. The solution also improves deployment efficiency by reducing antenna requirements by 67% compared to traditional single-band parallel link methods, lowering tower rental costs.” A more than normal cost efficient solution and it is being rolled out in Saudi Arabia. I reckon that the UAE will follow soon thereafter and in that setting Egypt, Portugal and Spain are likely next. This gives them slices of a multiple times the Saudi population and in that setting with Egypt in their banner the Saudi 5G solution will turn heads and put the other players to shame. It would be a world first that Saudi solutions are cheaper and outperforming other telecom companies for at least 2 years. And that is until the people figure out that the Nokia solutions becomes too expensive. The rot in an economy also implies that the people need cheaper solutions and Nokia is less likely to deliver at that time. As I see it all Saudi Arabia needs to do is to figure out how to add France and Germany to that pool and the Huawei battle will be decided in favour of Huawei. Oh, and whilst you are brooding on that. Consider “Huawei technology must be removed from the UK’s 5G public networks by the end of 2027 under legal documents handed to broadband and mobile operators today” I have NEVER ever seen ample documentation that Huawei was an actual danger. It was proxy tantrums from an American administration trying to bully others to hate Huawei too. Now that the stage changes and when it does (no if it does), Germany will have to turn the rudder in their decisions. I reckon that France will immediately follow suit (a speculation, I have no evidence). All that and now it comes with a directive from Saudi Arabia, who owns a stake in several telecom corporations all over Europe and Africa.

Do you still think I was wrong (or talking shit). The evidence has been out in the open since 2020. It is the tail-side of having no economy left at present. And as I see it, the telecom companies will go for each others throats and in the meantime the STC will keep on buying stakes in the other companies. So take that setting and introduce some unaffordable 6G future solution from Nokia. Are things adding up yet? And don’t forget, 6G might be actually da bomb but it is well over 2 years away, so how are your finances holding up in 2 years? Mine won’t survive, I reckon a lot of others will have a similar problem soon enough.

This gets me to the final push. It was seen in Satellite Pro Me (at https://satelliteprome.com/news/stcs-job-attachment-program-surges-by-72/) where we see ‘STC’s ‘Job Attachment Program’ surges by 72%’ that is even better then the bulk of telecom companies had 20 years ago. As I see it, Saudi Arabia will need a massive staff expansion and retrenching of current staff as we are given “The programme offers STC employees the opportunity to gain hands-on experience, explore career paths, and develop professional skills.” As I speculate to see it, is that the STC is going places and needs staff to do so. The countries I mentioned will need extensive upgrading and a much better service and call centre setting and that is just for starters. As I see it the STC is the largest Telecom employer before the end of 2025. Oh, and that is before we even see where France and Italy are in that setting. This could be the larger push into Europe and I reckon that this is fight that Huawei is happy to see Saudi Arabia do at present. I hope I haven’t oversimplified it for you too much.

Have a great day and good morning to Vancouver where it is now 01:10.

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Bully tactics

The BBC (LinkedIn also) gave us a story. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgrwj0p2dd9o) is giving us ‘Trump threatens 100% tariff on Brics nations if they try to replace dollar’. We are given “US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on a bloc of nine nations if they were to create a rival currency to the US dollar. “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” Trump wrote on social media on Saturday.”Now we can shout high and low, but the simple setting is that this is merely the second setting on the line that the good times are over in the US and things are about to get a lot worse. The simplest setting to consider is that if these facts present themselves the first hurdle will crash the little economy that they have. Let me explain. If President elect Trump goes through with that. Stuff in a place called Walmart will become close to twice as expensive. This implies that Walmart will drop all goods from China and India. As such others will have to provide, which will turn out to be close to impossible. Consider that Walmart employs 2,100,000 people and as I see it close to 60% will be out of a job then. Walmart has a net income of 16 billion dollars. It comes from $648 billion dollars. Now all these Chinese and Indian goods would get a 100% Tarif. So what happens when all those goods get a 100% surcharge? The American administration will drown Walmart into oblivion. Add to that the Google issues and China will get near clean run on running the global economy. So why wouldn’t they push for a Yuan to become the new central currency? And in that process slam the American administration as well? I reckon that China is chomping at the bits to get started on that. With the hardships given to Google, Huawei gets a smashing option to take market shares from Google in Europe the Middle East and Asia. Apple will get hit, but not as much. Then we get the Walmart and its wannabe’s who rely on cheap goods from China and India and they will all pretty much lose whatever they had. When we see Walmarts closing all over America many will realise that the game for America is up. I did mention this danger for well over a decade. When you let the debt run out of control with no exit strategy there is no real solution coming. I saw that a mile away, so why didn’t these overpaid economists? Now we get the new AI bubble and soon people will realise that it is merely another gimmick. When the revenue stays away from the books, when these revenues get pushed back again and again the third step will be reached. So president elect can bully as much as they can, but the pole position was missed and whomever is in control have no solutions to offer other then austerity that goes beyond anything Wall Street could ever have predicted and the party is over now. Don’t worry the family members to Sam Walton and Bud Walton will be fine. They can relocate to a nice place where they can spend their money. The other 2.1 million are royally screwed. I will not blame any Walton. They played the economy game and they played it well, they have options. The bulk will not. And when the dollar is replaced, banks, retirement companies will as I suspect buckle as well. The impact of a $36,000,000,000,000 debt. The impact will go slow but it would be undeniable. As BRICS decides on another currency they will attract several other players and the European parties will consider the change and they will do what is in the best interest of their Euro, they will not care about the US dollar for one second. That is the reality that was pretty much spelled out half a decade ago. I get that America will try to do what is best for America, but that option was nulled when parties decided to break up Google. That was the first step towards the end. And now Huawei will be the best option for many players. So as the economic map will be redrawn, we will see a new horizon with India, China, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia at the head of this new horizon. In that new map there is no longer a mention of America, the US dollar will remain a little while longer until all other nations have dumped trillions in dollar bonds. That will be the trigger that ends the world economy as it currently is. 

Have a great day today, tomorrow is the midweek and a mere three weeks until Christmas.

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