Tag Archives: ADNOC

April 30, 2025 · 04:03

Omitted resources

That is the exercise of this morning. As Reuters treats us to a story (at https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uaes-adnoc-supply-us-lpg-india-following-china-us-tariffs-sources-say-2025-04-29/) giving the reader ‘UAE’S ADNOC to supply US LPG to India following China-US tariffs, sources say’ A setting I saw coming a mile away. As we are given “The move will enable ADNOC to ship more of its own LPG to China, where buyers are paying higher premiums to replace U.S. supply after Beijing imposed steep tariffs on U.S. goods, and reduce LPG costs for India, the world’s No. 2 importer”, so I saw this and the high payed economists in America did not? In my story ‘War of trades’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/02/01/war-of-trades/) I gave on February 1st (almost 3 months ago) “We set the same to India who exports oil to the United States. Set that to Europe (to a much larger degree) and all its Commonwealth allies and America suddenly gets a much larger problem. Well they can import it from Venezuela and Russia I reckon. So, how is that going now President Trump?” This setting was oil and it was from India, so now we see that the UAE is replacing America with India as a new destination. So for America it is no longer about revenue, it becomes a lack of resources as the UAE is now shipping more of its own LPG to China (via India). It is the cumbersome situation involving tariffs. It almost seem like a new puzzle game, not unlike mixed currency deals on the internet. And now (as I see it it) America is losing more than one side in this. So as we read “ADNOC, through its trading units, has agreed to supply some U.S. LPG cargoes to India refiners under the annual contracts from June-July, said sources” as I see it, America is losing tariff revenue that ay and this is merely one step towards a new setting where America is replaced as a resource, and this also means that the political and diplomatic powers of America is dwindling down. In this way the UAE is gaining power both political and diplomatic as India is reassessing what allies they have and who no longer seems to be an ally. In this tariffs will get cumbersome on more ways then one. Soon America is losing additional revenue streams, because this setting is merely a first step. When China sets up new stages with Europe and the Middle East America can go bobbing for apples all they like, but it seems that the apples are being replaced and that sounds a lot like the old premise of murder. Segregation, Separation and Assassination. The stage that we see was made by America, they merely didn’t consider that it could be used against them and as I see it, both China and Russia like the new setting immensely. As I wrote lately that the interest on debt is costing the annual tax revenue to be 15% less, so the belt was already being tightened and now the revenue streams are missing the point they needed to make and another 10% will diminish. So how long until the American economy can no longer afford it? We can believe what Irwin Stelzer (The Times) told us that America’s economy is good. But as CNBC gave us yesterday ‘Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to a summer recession in Apollo’s shocking trade fight timeline’, then we also got a few hours ago ‘Port Of Los Angeles Warns ‘Difficult Decisions’ Ahead As Shipments From China Cease’ (source: Investor’s Business Daily) and 17 minutes ago CNBC gives us ‘Pfizer CEO says tariff uncertainty is deterring further U.S. investment in manufacturing, R&D’ as such, how much more bad news do we need to see before people in media start considering that the economy of America has gone topsy turvy?

And in the meantime as the Commonwealth is strengthening their walls the group of five might soon have one less member (yes, it is America). As such the new costings for the CIA will drastically alter and as the NSA is equally losing access to international intelligence the stage becomes how much money is America willing to pay for less reliable data? 

As such we get a new stage of omitted resources. America is losing revenue in several settings and the outcome of that is not really visible, but it will cost a bundle. A lot more than the tariffs are bringing in. In addition to that they pissed of the largest ally they had for decades and as such are losing more ‘friends’ as they are equally hurt and these ‘friends’ are willing to row it alone without the two dinghies called CIA and NSA. As such more power, revenue and friends are lost. But feel free to think it is all honky dory. And that changes when oil will g missing, so will America keep on selling their own oil, or is that a new revenue stream that will become largely lost soon enough.

You know, I am hesitant to blame President Trump for this setting. The question becomes who pushed this agenda? Are these elected officials blind, or will we see soon see articles with titles like ‘He bullied us and we were afraid’, I have no idea. Just floating an idea here. And when we have added these facts as well as add the fact that the The Arab Weekly gave us yesterday ‘Trump further strains Egypt ties by calling for US ships to cross Suez canal ‘free of charge’’ the story (at https://thearabweekly.com/trump-further-strains-egypt-ties-calling-us-ships-cross-suez-canal-free-charge) gives us ““American Ships, both Military and Commercial, should be allowed to travel, free of charge, through the Panama and Suez Canals!, ” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.” Its was the only source I saw, so keep that in mind. And the response in the same article was “Egyptian MP Mustafa Bakri criticised the remarks, describing them an “attempt at blackmail.”” Do you still believe that America isn’t close to default on all their loans? I wonder who will survive that 36 trillion bad bank setting. 

So, you all have a possible great day and relax if there is still coffee on the shelves. And don’t forget the former governor of the Bank of England works for the Commonwealth, well, actually he works for Canada, not America. Ciao!

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March 22, 2025 · 11:21

Twinkletoes

Yup, this happens to us all. Even the non-dancers. Twinkletoes means “used to refer to someone who is a good dancer or who moves lightly on their feet”, I accept that, but as I personally see it, it Also stages the person who has the situation that the person “who is a thinker or who moves swiftly in their brain” the same situation applies. I have been iterating new IP through existing games for over two days now (and it is really exhausting). I have been making new iterations to my version of Elder Scrolls 6: Restoration, a new FarCry (based on the legendary FarCry 3), the new RPG I have set on paper here, new iterations of commerce (in the RPG’s) and added a setting to a new stealth RPG (not a new Assassins Creed) and a very new approach to Watchdogs 5: Observations (in its earliest infancy), I had already commenced Watchdogs 4 to paper (somewhere on this blog) and it plays in modern day Japan. I changed the setting to Sapporo, as this is relatively new in gaming and as such there is novelty in new locations and the story requires a harbor setting. And this has been merely the last two days, although the original setting were created up to 5 years ago, with the setting of Restoration (TES6) almost 10 years ago. So as I am driven to near exhaustion as my brain is in twinkletoe mode, I can assure you that it is merely my version of overly active brain syndrome (perhaps there is a medical term for it) and it is leaving me a little tired. As it the case, it did give me the setting of Watchdogs 5, the issue here that it is a networking setting as the game goes in pairs. 

It is also less action driven, but more activity driven, as such you can be the hacker or the Agent in this game, there is a larger setting that you as one or the other can give clues to a fellow on the other side of the isle and the goal is to create a more robust observation and detection system. The frail setting of certain systems allows for actions to be monitored on CCTV, the internet and personal observations. The thought came to me as I was remembering 1985 video game Hacker by Activision. It was designed by Steve Cartwright and he got it done on a system with a mere 64KB, too what happens when we throw some real power to it? What happens when we unite agents and hackers and run the system from both ends? Can this result in a much more robust system? What happened when the game adds zero day faults (Apple has a few, Microsoft has tons as I personally see it). So what happens when we set these stages in motion and it is not merely point and click, so why happens when a Palantir (Gotham) system is thrown into the mix? I am merely postulating now, the reasoning that games could also instruct or teach people on how vulnerable they are in real life. 

As we move from station to station, some might remember the game V (based on the 1983 TV series), you merely run to a point and activate that system to let the red fumes inhabit the space station (I think that was what I was supposed to do), but add a section based on Portal (by Rob Swigart, 1986) you can get a lot more. That is the setting that I see when we set a game like Hacker to a much larger stage and at that point it is new IP, not merely some variation of IP, but a much larger stage and totally new. A game that teaches, informs and trains the next stage. As we now see that programmers are programming bots to keep scammers uselessly busy, we can grow more mundane and more intense in almost any direction. And it is a new endeavor, not some wannabe drip drip copy, but something totally new. Just like the makers of Chipwits (by Epyx, 1984) made a new version a larger and more enticing version on these newer systems, we can grow many games in new jackets and larger premises to new heights. And these systems have the computation powers to net the stage much larger. We can use the setting of the Balance of Power and add a few cogs to make it a much larger machine. And as Chipwits has a new version 42 years later in a much larger setting, we can do this in many ways and I wrote about them around 4 years ago. The new IP set on original ideas and stupidly discarded by this who thought the new horizons require better games, all whilst these games are the timeless golden oldies. We saw and forgot what Millennium 2.2 brought on the Commodore Amiga with 1024 KB on 150ns. Now we have systems (and mobiles) with 32000 times more memory and more than 15000 times more storage whilst the processors are over 250,000 times faster. You can really go to town on those merits and create the larger setting on several stages. I said that this was part of the 50 million Amazon Luna sales that I foresaw and some are in such stages now, but as I saw it Amazon stayed asleep and like Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin (1864) they went with that setting in the trend of “There go my people. I must find out where they are going so I can lead them” and the left billion on the floor all relying on the AI hype. I was thinking on that last week, there is no AI and I see it as NIP, Near Intelligent Parsing (making it NIP avoiding the confusion with IP). A setting that is overlooked, because as there is no AI, they all shout, so what is it then? Well, it is near intelligent, there is no real intelligence at present and it is set to the programmers who are parsing data and ideas into new (flawed) data. You see, a lot of this is intelligence and it almost get you there, but not entirely, the training models are set to more and more likely outcomes but there are percentages that are off and that is where the shoe becomes the wrong fit and I reckon that when these errors hit ADNOC and ARAMCO both will want some legal satisfaction and it might be a few years away, but it will happen, because the distance between real AI and NIP will be the size of the Grand Canyon (which these AI proclaimers will deny) and as they throw more complex legal documents at the customers they will get out to ‘their’ field retired and non-accountable to any legal discourse. It is almost like bad mortgages sold (or swapped) to new owners and they get out. Yet this field is the new wild west and I refuse to become part of it. And what happens, I saw the new stages of income based on old software. The Atari 600/800, Atari ST, CBM64 and CBM Amiga gave us over 10,000 games between 1983 and 1999. So if we only take the highest scoring 10% we get 1000 games. Now 30%-50% have IP protection, but I saw the override in new IP in a few ways and these are valid options as I see it and that implies that that ‘great’ (not really) game brand Microsoft, left thousands of options on the floor whilst they went to spend billions on something that I not panning out. You see, where it all becomes a new kind of hustle, all whilst for over two years I have written on other means to get revenue? And I am not done yet, because as I see it, the more I write here, the more revenue I show and the more IP I give here, the weaker the bog tech firms show themselves to be. A simple setting with simple outcomes and the best gig becomes that should someone copy the IP I set here, the bigger the losers biotech becomes. A simple equation to the question what makes for a good game?

That leaves me with the question, is there a mental setting to Twinkletoes? It is merely a mental thing in me, the question I cannot answer has a larger appeal than most other things in life. Have a great day and if you wonder what bag I left here? I do some things with intent, you can’t give away the game and here is the setting. In November 2018 I wrote ‘It’s about time, slappers only’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/11/29/its-about-time-slappers-only/) the premise to Watchdogs 4, and the larger player would be the one with Meta Glasses, before Meta even had glasses, I call them Google Glasses. As such I was ahead from META by years. And as I see it, I have done so a few times with games and when we see Software companies make ‘innovative’ claims (hardware suppliers too) I get to be front and central in their claims showing them what I had created years ago. I reckon that I am mere steps to show what I had months if not years from what Bernard Arnault apparently had created whilst I had the setup in my bog (and more) close to a year before they made their AR (Augmented Reality) claims through LVMH. I was a few steps ahead of them and I made it common goods in my blog before March 21st 2023 in ‘The unplanned story’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/21/the-unplanned-story/) and all the wannabe innovators (no referral to Bernard Arnault) can go suck an egg. As I said, have a great day with an optional game or two, because gaming makes the brain go in innovative mode.

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January 27, 2025 · 04:22

A call to arms

That is what is in me. Calling you all up to arms. The first issue is Donald Trump, the president of Unites States of bankruptcy. And we see this possibly quite clearly. The first part is (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/buy-canadian-tariff-threat-implications-1.7439117) where we see ‘Why ‘buying Canadian’ isn’t as easy as it sounds’ And we are given “Can shrewd shopping truly help Canada push back on economic threats from the United States? If you believe the rhetoric from some political leaders, every little bit helps — especially if consumers pay closer attention to labels.” I believe we need to do more, we the people of the commonwealth must unite, Canada is our larger brother and the United States of Bankruptcy have no business making claim to it as the 51st state. There is no opportunity as that weasel Kevin O’Leary states. America has to fine ways to raise its economic awareness of go under. And the oil and forests of Canada are not the way. As a commonwealth Australia, India, Jamaica, New Zealand, United Kingdom and the other 8 nations have a duty, yes duty I say to if whenever possible to buy Canadian. As such all American maple syrups go from the shelves right now and are replaced with the real Canadian version. 

Wood and other stuff needs to be bought from Canadian dealers only. It might not be enough, yet tell me honestly when Trump attacks us, should we not respond? If he attacks one of us all with tariffs and we, all 15 replace American goods whenever possible with Canadian, adding to that notion by switching oil by Canada ($11.8B), United Kingdom ($11.4B), and India ($10.8B) from America to Canada, it will hurt America at least 33 billion right there, the other Commonwealth nations might not be the largest customers, but every little bit helps. Oh, and if we all stop American import oil, America can stop crying like a bitch to make oil cheaper from Saudi Arabia, they can now provide for their own oil. 

It might not be enough, but if the dent is great enough, America will think twice with their ambition to annex Canada into America. So as we see “Make sure we send a message to big retailers. Costco, Sobeys, Walmart, Metro and Loblaws. Buy Canadian products.” Our Commonwealth nations could add Coles, Woolworths, Aldi, Co-op, Sainsbury’s and a few others to that list. And this would also benefit the UK. So how much of a dent is needed for America to realize that pissing of the ally they once had was a really bad idea? The second article (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-premiers-buy-canadian-trade-war-1.7438587) also gives us in ‘Trudeau, premiers urge shoppers to buy Canadian as country prepares for a trade war’ “As a possible trade war with the U.S. looms, Trudeau and the premiers are now furiously trying to dismantle long-standing internal barriers to make it easier to trade goods and move workers across provincial borders.” And in that case, their brothers and sisters in the Commonwealth should also be heeding the call they face. 

And do not relent, let America face the hardcore upgrade to financial pains by removing massive parts of their income. It is the least we can do. Must of us could get the oil needed from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This could open additional markets for both sides. As such there could be a call to add Aramco and ADNOC fueled gas stations. My temporary issue is that we see “Our refinery at Lytton (ample) uses crude oil largely sourced from Australia, New Zealand, south-east Asia, Africa, and North America.” As such North America should be rescinded from that list and replaced with oil from Canada, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Ampol has over 1900 locations in Australia and 262 in New Zealand, time to upgrade that list of places. As I said it might not be enough, but in hardship the Commonwealth has such together and our big brother needs out help now. We all should unite and let the baboonish call to make the 51st state a thing of the past. We see that America is also making the call to invest 500 billion into AI and that might be (might is the operative word) the final straw for their collapsing economy. You see there is only one definition of AI and it was handed to us by Alan Turing. Based on his paper 1950 paper ‘Computing Machinery and Intelligence’ (see https://www.turing.org.uk/scrapbook/test.html) 

turingDownload

(source: University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC))

As I see it, what we have now is an exploding predictive analytics model set so verbose that it never learns, it merely sets all the combinations of the set in data. It was a decent solution in 1986 when it was Chessmaster 2000 brought by The Software Toolworks and later after passing several hands until 2009 it was in the hands of Ubisoft. The Chessmaster 9000 was said to have an ELO of 2718. Data formats had evolved, but the larger setting was that the system never really evolved and in 1986 our concepts of data were different. Like some rainbow tables approach to the presentation of data we grew more attuned to the situation, but it still isn’t AI. A predictive analytical model using deeper machine learning and LLM model is of course much better, but it just isn’t AI and the elements requiring AI are not in existence yet. We now know what it should look like and a Dutch Physicist has now proven and shown the Epsilon particle to exist, but it isn’t here yet. For that matter until that evolves into a trinary system we are out of luck and President Trump puts 500 billion in this? This will always go sideways in the direction no revenue will come from and at some points the banks will want to see their revenue. A simple setting that is coming the way of America with no recourse. So yes, I am calling to arms to protect Canada, our Commonwealth brother. 

So why the AI part?
If America is to be set to their decisions, then the folly they employ is also a measurement and a hindrance to success. I do not oppose the effort, but in this ago that a solution is ‘presented’ as the holy grail and the future financial solution, the fact that it will never work at present is also the hindrance for the presented result. I don’t care that Microsoft is plunging billions in this and whilst securing 3.5 million carbon credits. The bigger setting is a joke (as I personally see this) like toddlers playing Texas Hold’em poker. With the pot merely increasing and when you realize that this could cost you the hand and in the case of America their nation. In this I believe it is essential to stand by Canada. We see all these companies vesting their chances and the effort is good, but the risk is theirs at present and now President Trump is making the country the presented bet of a folly hand. And it matters and no one is considering that too much will be lost, not even the media.

The media is not looking (or too little) at the dangers of data poisoning and malicious use of the data train in development. These two settings involve people and there is a near complete lack of verification of data and that could cost us all in time. So whilst America is willing to hedge its bet by presenting a solution that cannot yet exist (or in the near future) we can leave them to their sorry state and hand protection to our brother Canada to keep it secure and out of American hands. As such I call to arms.

Try to have a great day.

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December 30, 2024 · 17:38

Return of DM

You have probably seen it, I definitely have and they all call it “A call to AI arms” or something of that sort. It started an hour ago. I saw a security guard and I said “That shop is deceiving us, they say 50% of everything and they are still wearing all their clothes”, the guard was not amused, or perhaps his sense of humour doesn’t go that far. It might not have been overly funny, but at that moment a few things clicked together. And I was of to the races. You see, a few things clicked together and it started yesterday, but my subconscious had figured a few things out that my brain was still working on. 

Part 1
Part 1 woke me up to what some laughingly call AI. It was shown to me as a YouTube video. The video (at https://youtube.com/shorts/Kt_oGa4jLik) gives us an “AI” version of the statue. 

Screenshot

There is a setting that could work. Consider the increase of interest in Latin and Roman ways of life. To get these statues ‘brought’ to life has advantages. In the first we would not need to rely on actors for all of it and it would be one way to give more impact to the work of Edward Gibbon (1776) published the first volume of his The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Decline and Fall has been the theme around which much of the history of the Roman Empire has been structured. And it doesn’t click with too many of us, but when these statues come to life and as they give life to the writings something more comes to us, especially when it is in Latin. Now you see the first constraint. To see a few seconds of LLM on a statue is one thing, to get people to watch 24 times 45 minutes the constraint will become visible to all. Constraints are seen when the technology just isn’t ready and the utter bull we see on LinkedIn on a daily basis that our future is AI, when it doesn’t exist (yet) gives you a clear pause. But some people need this bubble to exist, their livelihood actually depends on this.

Part 2
Part 2 is LinkedIn. You see, I get a regular image on whether I am hiring. And the options are Yes and Not right now. This isn’t AI, or any kind of AI. This is Direct Marketing and that is what you resort to when you have no data. In 1998 I got a nice taste of that. Someone told me “You either bombard someone with DM, or you start getting clever about who you address the marketing to” it was a clever setting because that was when SPSS launched Answertree. The selected choice for those who wanted to waste as little as possible and when the penetration is a mere 4%, being clever will pay off nicely.

The setting we see now is a combination of constraints and abilities. We have no AI abilities and neither do the computers. As such certain people are trying to sell you a concept, an idea on how things will go and as such they create models that learn everything. So as such they are trying to WOW you with examples on YouTube and LinkedIn on how to do that, but the constraints are there and when you see the constraints you will try to get off that train and the people will have gotten you invested at boarding that train. As such you are hooked and then the limits become visible. 

Part 3
The third part came yesterday in a dream, but the setting was seen at least a month ago. I saw it somewhere in November when I stumbled upon it, but it never clicked, because I wasn’t looking for it. But yesterday in that dream I saw the interaction of SPSS (AS400 version) with an export via EXCEL into SAP Dashboard. I had not used that combination in over a decade, but the image was there. Now, I get that these numbers aren’t ‘inspiring’ to anyone else than investors and the board of directors at ADNOC, but to create traction you need inspiring views and the report (added below) doesn’t have that and that is not on ADNOC, you need a better setting for that and that is usually where the car sinks (or strands). 

As I personally see it, constraints are surpassed when you give free reign to data to create interest and one place to do this is using SAP Dashboard to create this (originally called xcelcius). That is when market research used the combination to create visible waves in a new setting that people had not seen before and that creates the traction they needed. So what about the numbers shown via a dashboard? It isn’t just oil that requires presentation. You see Abu Dhabi has International Holding Company (IHC), Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA), ADNOC Gas L.C. and First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB). These four represent 1.5 trillion in revenue. I reckon that they could use a more visible setting in presenting self and that is merely in one location. And no AI was needed here. A mere look at presenting different and showing themself in other ways. When you realise what dashboard can achieve, they will achieve more all whilst AI is still being created. So whilst we applaud the LLM (and DML) of statues, the moment one person states that Julius Caesar can give voice to his work (for example Commentarii de Bello Gallico) and the constraints make it fall short, you will realise that there is some length to go until AI is an actual reality. 

That was the parts my dream didn’t give me and a simple sign that bustled with inaccuracies (of everything) that was when my brain clicked the part together. OK, I can be slow too. Yet I take pride in my slowness, especially when my brain refuses to wake up, which it did to me today.

So have a great day and remember that tomorrow is the last day to learn what sex 2024 was about.

ADNOC Distribution_Q3 2024_FS_ENGDownload

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December 29, 2024 · 22:00

At the close of a year

This might be the last article this year (no promises). I have been haunted by a weird dream, but that is not what this is about. You see, the army recognition group gave us yesterday (at https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2024/saudi-arabia-eyes-up-to-100-turkish-kaan-fighter-jets-as-us-made-f-35-remains-inaccessible) ‘Saudi Arabia eyes up to 100 Turkish Kaan fighter jets as US-made F-35 remains inaccessible.’ I know nothing of this plane, so I am not going in that direction. The setting that the US set the inability of the F35 being handed to Saudi hands is worthy of responding to. You see, the pricing of the F35 is set to “$102.1 million for the F-35C.” This means that America lifted their nose at 10 – 25 billion of hard needed income. The planes, the support and engineering surplus and a few other options. I expected that China would ‘swoop’ in to get that money. It is decently plausible that their were more reasons. I am merely setting that this could also mean the end of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), you see, airbases on foreign ground are meant for allies and America has priced them out of that corner. As I see it Anthony Blinken has done away with that option. You see, only two months ago we got “US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday sought to make headway with Saudi Arabia on” whatever ‘his’ administration is ‘worried’ about. You need to have an ally for that and the fact that the F35 has been ‘unavailable’ since 2012. That is over 12 years, so as the F35 faces being optionally phased out by 2030, they lost one of their biggest customers and provisional ally in the Arabic peninsula as I personally see it. 

And America? Well, who needs an ally who is never there? That is the short and sweet part of this all and for Turkey this might be the sweet deal of the century. At some point the UAE and Egypt will also require 5th gen stealth fighters. This will make it harder for America and China to get traction. I never expected that Turkey was on that level, but that shows you what I know of this field.

And this is not the first time America, Europe and China enter behind the fishnet only to end up with nothing. This potential purchase follows Saudi Arabia’s $3.1 billion agreement with Türkiye in 2023 for the acquisition of 60 Baykar AKINCI unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), set for delivery in 2025 and 2026.

So, when was the last time major governments walked away from a potential 15 billion deal? America might shout tariffs and the upcoming said expansion with their 51st state (Canada), but they forget that Canada is part of a Commonwealth and in their views (the Commonwealth) it amounts to a direct assault on the Commonwealth. So when was the last time a nation was engaged with the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, India, South Africa and at least two dozen more. If they reject all imports from America, the American economy goes the way of the dodo a lot faster than the dodo did. For China it sounds like a prolonged Christmas. You see, if they get traction with the Commonwealth, a desire they never thought realistic, but going after their largest member Canada might set that deal to nominal.

That as the rejection of billions set a dangerous premise for America and Saudi Arabia can play hard to get in that instance. So the next threat by the president elect Trump will set a minefield around (presumed) Marco Rubio making his job next to impossible. 

But we will see what will happen. In the meantime we should send a congratulatory card to Turkey for this achievement.

And of course the card for the next tenant of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), but that is likely to follow in 2025/2026. As I see it, the next two years are close to essential for the next administration to avoid a governmental garage sale. But what do I know?

Still, in retrospect the dream still bugs me. The dream was a job at ADNOC, in Abu Dhabi. They had an AS400 running SPSS 6.1.3 and it had been gathering dust. It wasn’t working and the people at IBM said it was the fault of ADNOC. In the dream I merely had to remove 2 lines (reading ASCII data), two variables Alphanumeric were making a mess of things and removing the two lines solved 96% of the issue. 96% was fixed in the first hour (well for one job). I needed two additional hours to align the alphanumeric fields. And that took two hours to work out, I used Excel for that (the one Microsoft program Microsoft got right). And with that the first month was back on track. A weird setting, as I know next to nothing of ADNOC, I know that they are in oil, and that is all. I haven’t thought of that program in over 2 decades, so what gives? Well, in part technical support at SPSS was perhaps one of the most fulfilling jobs. But the powers that be didn’t see me as IBM material. O well, such is life. 

Time to head to the end of the year and see what 2025 will bring. 

Have a great day and the optional conclusion of a great year.

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November 27, 2024 · 17:06

Saudi Fun craft

That is on the agenda. Most people are hauling what they can to see their name in COP29, but the others (or those who put their name down already) are trying to be seen as the anti-China voice in the middle east. Because that is what Trump wants, right?

That is the setting of the next wannabe, the next facilitator or the next service provider. Saudi Arabia, Aramco, the UAE and ADNOC’s next need, that is what their limited view states. I cannot agree. That was what the region needed, the next iteration however is as subtle as a maul to a shin.

You see, most are ‘reacting’ to ‘Better offer needed if the US wants to pull Saudi Arabia away from China’ (Amwaj media) or ‘Saudi Arabia seeks mining deals with Chinese, Indian and Canadian firms in industry push’ (AL-monitor). There are more headlines, but the cautious player notices that America (or USA) is in several instances no longer mentioned. That is the actual play. President  elect Trump has a problem. His library is not on the mind of those who need to have it on their minds and that is a plural issue. Microsoft might be ‘offering’ the world to the UAE in AI, but the critics who know a thing or two are skeptical. I cannot tell if there is a silence delay, or an actual disregard in play for the USA. You need to be in the know with China and a certain palace in Riyadh to know the actual setting. And in this Amwaj gives us “if Washington truly wants Riyadh to join the US camp, it should come up with a better offer—instead of a proposition with strings attached.” Funny that, I said something similar on March 11th 2020 in ‘Who is Miss Calculation?’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/03/11/who-is-miss-calculation/) the words are not the same, but the spirit was. As most would embrace Good business is where you find it, others went for Money talks, bullshit walks. So who was president then?

It does not matter, policies are always on a turntable, but the disc hits that direction 33 times a minute. Faster if you play a CD. No matter whose president when this matter resurfaces. China had a while to set his ducks in a row and he merely needs to watch the fallout whilst he takes shelter regarding the massive boink the Americas show when things turn sour.

America needs a positive hit and that implies being close friends with the Arabian allies UAE and Saudi Arabia. All whilst they know that they need to be friends with China as well. And that is a bitter pill to swallow for America. The tables turn even further as elemental deals (where America would have been the A-team for Arabia) we now see China, India and Canada taking slices of that pie as well. I send stern warnings in 2020 and now we see it happen. So consider that America had the biggest part of that pie until 2015, now we see that America (with $36,000,000,000,000 debt) ends up with a suspected mere 45% of that pie, 55% went into other directions. Add to that the deals Europe and Australia expects to make before Jan 1st 2025 and you see that Saudi Arabia is doing what it needs to do for its country. It might not look nice, but that is the reality of it all and I gave the people heads up for over 4 years. Now it all ‘looks like a crises’ that does not mean it is. It is merely a crises when you were unaware of it all and America was very aware. So seeks the sands with COP29 all whilst there are over 41000 flights each day and many are not needed. So how is that for “biologically formed organic matter”. Yes they will stop some of this all whilst a massive chunk of of these 41000 flight each day could be deleted. So where is COP29 now?

And it gets to be bad, or worse for America. The Tariff deal for Canada is seen as disastrous. But when it can deal with China and Saudi Arabia, what Canada loses on one side, it will gain more on the other side, America painted itself in a corner. And for the sweeter deal? It might be too late for that. China has gained about 15% of the pie that was meant for America, as such the bills will be pushed along forward and there is actual consideration that America would have to lease its land to others to make a shilling and it is not shillings that America needs. It needs a wheelbarrow of these coins. As I see it, America now has less than 4 turns until it can no longer make any moves. It wont be able to afford the entry fee to make a move. As such I personally believe that America has been playing the wrong game. They were playing chess whilst Chinese chess was needed. They never used the board optimal and now that they figured out the game, it is too late for that.

In my own view (optionally a wrong one), the friends of Trump are heading for the hills. They will not get away Scott free, but they will get away. The rest gets saddled with the biggest invoice in human history and they cannot foot the bill. And don’t think that this is not on you all. Your pensions are about to go the way of Lehman Brothers 2003. The loans that are still outgoing will be foreclosed by the banks foreclosing your banks and you end up having nothing to live upon. That too was blatantly obvious before the end of 2023. Now it matters to whom have the flexibility to make moves with whatever capital they have. Don’t rely on the stock markets. Have investments that are mobile, or optionally real estate. I feel certain that it will come to blows in 2025 when America shows that it has issues settling the bills they have. That is when panic goes global. And when you see this unfold those with a decent penny in Aramco and ADNOC will have a return on investment, the rest? Whatever of these rest players will be left alive in Q2 2025, because there is no reality that this will be true.

And when you ask how come? That would be fair and the answer wa staring you in the face. Country 1 gave payment to a debt of country 2 and Country 2 gave payment to a debt of country 1. So what is that called? And this had been going on for decades. I thought the barn was done away with when we learned of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic going south on the debit line. However, the worst was dealt with. This time around it might be worse. The USA would need to call themselves bankrupt and the impact of that is beyond my ability to see, but I am willing to place a bet that China knows exactly what to do. You see, when this comes to pass China and others can vie for the 6,278,000 billion barrels a day it imports. It might be cheaper then getting their own oil, but that is where it is headed. India and China will try to get the largest chunk of it. As such Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Colombia will need new customers and I reckon India and China will be chomping at the bits to get these slices of oil. It will impact global economy to a much larger extent. And that was merely the first part. Consider that Huawei is taking over another slice of technology and you have one country falling short on several fields, merely because they did not think things through. So wanna seen what happens when you owe a bank a massive amount of cash and you can only cover 60% of the monthly payments?

How long until this party is over?

Enjoy the day.

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November 16, 2024 · 13:33

Is it a public service

There is a saying (that some adhere to). How often can you slap a big-tech company around for it to be regarded as personal pleasure instead of a public service? There is an answer, but I am not the proper source of that (and I partially disagree). Slapping Microsoft around tends to be a public service no matter how you slice it. Perhaps some people at 92, NE 36th St, Redmond, WA 98052 might start seeing this as their moment to clean up that soiled behemoth. Anyway this all started actually yesterday. I saw an article and I put it next to me. I had other ideas (like actual new IP ideas), but the article was still there this morning and I gave it another look.

The article (at https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366615892/Microsoft-UAE-power-deal-at-centre-of-US-plan-for-AI-supremacy) gives us ‘Microsoft UAE power deal at centre of US plan for AI supremacy’ was hilarious for two reasons. The first is one that academics can agree on There is not (yet) such a setting like AI (Artificial Intelligence) and personally I am smirking at the idea that Microsoft can actually spell the word correctly (howl of deriving laughter by silly old me). And the start of the article gives us “Microsoft has struck an artificial intelligence (AI) energy deal with United Arab Emirates (UAE) oil giant ADNOC after a year of extraordinary diplomacy in which it was the vehicle for a US strategy to prevent a Chinese military tech grab in the Gulf region.” In this I am having the grinning setting that this is one way to give oil supremacy to Aramco and that is merely the beginning of it. And the second was the line “a US strategy to prevent a Chinese military tech grab in the Gulf region” and it is my insight that this is a clicking clock. One tick, one tock leading to one mishap and Microsoft pretty much gives the store to China. And with that Aramco laughingly watches from the sidelines. There is no if in question. This becomes a mere shifting timeline and with every day that timeline becomes a lot more worrying. Now the fist question you should ask is “Could he be wrong?” And the answer is yes, I could be wrong. However the past settings of Microsoft shows me to be correct. And in this all, the funny part to see is that with the absence of AI, the line “a plan to become an AI superpower” becomes folly (at the very least). There are all kinds of spins out there and most are ludicrous. But several sources state “There are several reasons why General AI is not yet a reality. However, there are various theories as to what why: The required processing power doesn’t exist yet. As soon as we have more powerful machines (or quantum computing), our current algorithms will help us create a General AI” or to some extent. Marketing the spin of AI does not make it so. And Quantum computing is merely the start. Then we get the shallow circuit setting and as I personally call it the trinary operating system. You see, all computing is binary and the start of trinary is there. Some Dutch scientist was able to prove the trinary particle (the Ypsilon particle). You see that set in a real computing environment is the goal (for some). The trinary system creates the setting of a achievable real AI. The trinary system has for phases NULL, TRUE, FALSE and BOTH. It is the both part that binary systems cannot do yet, as such any deeper machine learning system is flawed by human interference (aka programming and data errors because of it). This is the timeline moment where we see the folly of Microsoft (et al). 

So then we get to “It also entrenches Microsoft’s place at the crux of the environmental crisis, pledging to help one of the world’s largest oil firms use AI to become a net-zero producer of carbon emissions, while getting help in return in building renewable energy sources to feed the unprecedented demand that the data-centres powering its AI services have for electricity.” OK, not much to say against. This is a business opportunity nicely worded by Microsoft. these are realistic goals that Deeper Machine Learning could do, but that pesky setting gets the novel approach where people (programmers) need to make calls and a call made in the name of AI, still doesn’t make that so. As such when that data error is found, the learning algorithms will need to be retrained. How much time lag does that give? And make no mistake ADNOC will not tolerate these level of errors. It amounts to billions a day and the oil business is cut throat. So when I state that Aramco is sitting on the sideline howling, I was not kidding. That is how I see this develop. Then we get “The same paradox was played out at the COP 28 climate conference in Dubai last December, while Microsoft prepared to ink a $1.5bn investment in UAE state-owned AI and data-centre conglomerate G42, where Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC oil chief, chaired a global agreement to ditch fossil fuels.” This is harder to oppose. It is pretty much an agreement between two parties. However I wonder how the responsibilities of Microsoft are voiced, because it will hang on that and perhaps Microsoft slipped one by ADNOC, but that is neither here or there. You don’t become chief of ADNOC without protecting that company so without the papers I cannot state this will get Microsoft in hot waters. However, I am certain that any boast towards ‘miscommunication’ will hand the stables, the farm and the livestock (aka oil) right in the hands of China. You see, people will focus on the $1.5 billion investment by Microsoft, yet I wonder how much (or how long) the errors are unspotted. That will be an error that could result into billions a day lost and that is something that Microsoft is unlikely to survive. Then there is the third player. You see America angered China with the steps they have taken in the past. And I have no doubt that China will be keeping an eye on all this and whilst some might want to ‘hide’ mishaps. China will be at the forefront of illuminating these mistakes. And these mistakes will rear their ugly heads. They always do and the track record of Microsoft is not that great (especially when millions scrutinise your acts). As such this is a like standing on a hill where the sand is kept stable on a blob of oil, until someone walks that it merely seems stable, the person walking there became the instability of it all. Not the most eloquent expression, but I think it works and Microsoft have been trodding too much already and now China feels grieved (not sure it is a valid feeling) but for China it matters and getting Microsoft to fail will be their only target. Well, that is it all from me and looking at how this will go, I have a nice amount of popcorn ready to watch two players slug it out. In the meantime Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber has merely one thought “Did I deserve what I about to unfold?” And I can’t answer that because it is depending on the papers he co-signed and I never saw these papers, so I cannot give an honest response to that.

Let’s see how this fight unfolds on the media, enjoy your day wherever you are (it is still Friday west of Ireland).

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September 28, 2024 · 22:22

How I fall short

That is the stage, that is the setting. I do not know everything (too boring anyways) and even as I see how things develop and are optionally staged. The fact that I do not know everything gets in the way of some things. Now, I know very little about oil. It is a commodity everyone needs, it is a commodity only some countries have and the two biggest players in that field are Aramco and ADNOC, oil is black and it is needed for the production of petroleum. That’s about all I know. The current price is about $68 dollars per barrel. So when I saw ‘Oil price drops, and BP and Shell shares slide, as Saudi Arabia ‘prepares to abandon $100 crude target’’ I didn’t think too much of it. The story comes from the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/sep/26/european-reconstruction-bank-cuts-growth-forecasts-energy-ukraine-elon-musk-uk-investment-summit), there were more sources, but I am handing you this one. We get “Saudi Arabia is reportedly ready to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 a barrel for crude as it prepares to increase output” yet Oil&Gas journal gives us “Saudi Arabia is preparing to abandon its informal target of $100/bbl for crude oil as it plans to increase production, signalling the kingdom’s acceptance of a period of lower prices and intentions to take back market share, according to sources cited by the Financial Times”, now in my book the shortage of one commodity means prices go up. I do understand that any player will protect market share, as such I get the increase of product to protect your market share. That makes sense. And as such we see Saudi Arabia deciding an increase for about 1 million barrels per day as per December 2024. There are a few players on this field and I like the idea that the increase will make sure that Russia has less customers to get it from Russia is not happy. And as several media are giving us the goods, there is no other way for me than to agree with the setting. In overall there is still a larger concern I have. Oil is a commodity with a finite supply, so how much supply is there? I believe that the middle east has the bulk of it, but the finite session gives us the dangerous setting that at some point, the three countries with supply will be Russia, Iran and Venezuela. That is not a setting I want to wake up to, although at present it is highly unlikely that I will be around the morning we get that piece of news. In the meantime there is a larger issue at stake. How will Aramco increase its creation of oil with an additional 159,000,000 litres of that black fluid. You see everyone is looking at the end result and no one is looking at the how. What is required to that level of increase? I feel certain that it will require a lot more than one pump. It is the increase of 10% (near to that) and comes from 300 rigs. The simpleton in me sees this as an additional 30 rigs. It takes 18 months to five years to commission a rig, the construction timeline for an oil rig can vary significantly depending on several factors and that is if the oil comes from rigs. Saudi Arabia has one hundred oil and gas fields, so if it comes from there, other means are needed. The largest oil field is the Ghawar field. So how can you increase the production there? And is that the only place? We are so desperate for oil that the basic security is overlooked and there is at present Iran, Houthi forces and a few others who are very willing to hurt Saudi Arabia. So what more is needed, because when by November that increase is realised, some will take offence to this and that problem will possibly create all kinds of new problems. And we do not see enough information on that side of the equation.

And advice from me? Nope, I know next to nothing on that topic. I can merely see hurdles and optionally a personal belief that I see options, but that is not what the actual expert on the topic has. And the media? Solutions do not make their digital wallet fat, flames do that and in that view it is not a good idea to put flames close to oil, a mere personal view on the matter.

Have a great weekend.

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December 6, 2023 · 02:36

Angle, Bigotry, Chauvinism

Yes, all words, these three words represent the bias of the media. And it has started some time ago. But here in this case lets take a look at Sky News (at https://news.sky.com/story/unprecedented-2-400-fuel-lobbyists-at-cop28-in-dubai-claim-campaigners-13023153). Here we are given ‘‘Unprecedented’ 2,400 fuel lobbyists at COP28 in Dubai, claim campaigners’ but that is not where the bias is. As we are given names like Amin Nasser (CEO Aramco) and Sultan Al Jaber. Yet what I find weird is that there is no names linked to Brent Crude oil, there is no mention anywhere in COP28 of anyone from Brent in this. Welcome to bias.

Then we get “At least 2,456 fuel lobbyists have been given access to the COP28 summit in Dubai” so not “more than 2,400” but an actual specific number. And it comes from the group called “Kick Big Polluters Out”,  or KBPO, which could also mean Keep Boneheaded Packs Out. You see, this is not on the oil industry, but on the media. When you consider “Many of the fossil fuel lobbyists are said to have gained access by being part of a trade organisation”. This gets us two questions. Were they all in the blue zone, or the green zone and what was the spread of these people? The second part is what countries were these 2456 people from? How many from the US? How many from Venezuela and Russia? All top-line numbers we aren’t given. So is this the angle Sky News (and others) are working with, or is this part of more? Like all the BS that places like ICIJ gives us with ‘emotional’ stories, devoid of real numbers, real groupings and clusters. The media is becoming less and less reliable. 

We see names like Shell, TotalEnergies, Equinor, BP, ExxonMobil and ENI. However, the name Brent Crude oil is absent, why is that? 

Why can’t the media do its job? Why can’t they give us CLEAR numbers. They got 2456, how did they get there? It might be right, but we aren’t given anything clear and that is the larger station. We aren’t given clarity and the media is making it worse through emotions, speculations and assumptions. How is that for media claiming to be independent, fair, balanced and proclaiming to be trustworthy.

The Guardian also gives us “Al Jaber is also the chief executive of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company, Adnoc, which many observers see as a serious conflict of interest”, yet no one is asking serious questions from the media and that is the larger failing. I have shown their failures for over two years and things are (as I personally see it) getting worse. It is all about the emotion and the digital dollar, in that process clear reporting seems to be going out the window. 

I wonder if we bulk all the reporting together, will we see anything clearly reported, or should we ask people from Monash University who sees to be there too? I will let you decide, but consider all the things we aren’t being told.

I have arrived to the middle of the week, see you all soon at this point as well.

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August 12, 2023 · 05:36

Tapping an economy

This happens, some other (or new) player sets the stage where they can become a major player. This is a rare case but it can happen and now I seem to be witness to one that could end up being a much larger stage than I ever expected. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66310714) gives us ‘Why it matters where your data is stored’. The article is all about the cloud, yet this article gave me parts that brought out questions that allowed the consideration that the new player could in a short time frame become a major player. Yet to see this, we need to look at the parts.

Part 1
The first question is coming from ““The American authorities have the right to go in and see any data that is stored in an American cloud, even if the data centre is in Europe,” Mr Åström says.” That was a selling point for American firms and with the IP in data centres the Europeans will become concerned. The American credit score is dwindling down as such they will become more and more concerned with THEIR value, a view Europeans will not share, or will be willing to chance sacrificing asI see it.

Part 2
Then we get to “it’s big enough to rival the major US cloud providers: Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft and Google. They have a 65% share of the world cloud market between them, according to Synergy Research Group”, here I miss the IBM and Apple clouds. Apple is a different issue, they have a niche market and they are optionally decently safe from what is coming. IBM is different, they have been on the corporate data shoe forever, so why is IBM avoided? The numbers give me “IBM Hybrid Cloud has market share of 1.88% in infrastructure-as-a-service market. IBM Hybrid Cloud competes with 71 competitor tools in infrastructure-as-a-service category.” Perhaps they are ‘too small’, time will tell but that doesn’t matter. With this setting Evroc has the momentum to become a major player, perhaps slightly below AWS, but to go from a wannabe to a player next to AWS, possibly surpassing Microsoft is not done lightly and as far as I could tell has never been done before. But that is not the worst of it (for Amazon and Microsoft). You see the EU is larger in population, as such more services are needed there, but this could flow over into Canada (as it is a Commonwealth nation) then the larger concern (for Amazon et al) will be the Middle East. I reckon that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE might want to be separated more strongly from American firms. If I were China, I would be pushing that button too. As such Evroc as localisation bubbles could grow even further. 

Part 3
“Evroc has secured €15m in seed funding and plans to build eight data centres in Europe in the next five years. The first will be a large pilot data centre in Sweden next year.” As I see it, should they decide to add two more clouds (KSA and UAE) they could tap into a few massive organisations and that should make the US a lot more bothered than they ever considered. I had issues with ‘data sharing’ in the late 90’s but I was laughed at, I was overly BS howled at. Well, it seems that I was right all along and now that the US needs its corporations to do well, Evroc comes in and takes away even more. I never saw this coming, yet as I see it Mattias Åström played his cards well and at the right moment. There is no telling how far this goes, yet the idea that (based on the numbers) “Microsoft increased its share from 23%, up from 21% the prior quarter, while Amazon fell from 34% to 33% and Google remained steady at 11%.” Evroc could grow by taking 20% of the others, we get 18% Microsoft, 26% Amazon and 8% Google, Evroc could grow by 12% (optionally towards 20%+) almost overnight (if a night lasts 7 years) That puts them ahead of Google and Microsoft making them a new major player. That is beside the damage they could do in the Middle East. With Aramco, SAMA, Al Rajhi banking, SABIC, STC, MA’ADEN, International Holding Company (IHC), ADNOC, Emaar Properties and a few more more. You might think this is all fun and games, but it is about to get worse.

Part 4
This part was not in the article and that is not on the BBC. You see I have looked in this direction before. In 2020 I wrote ‘Institutionalised Positioning’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/11/02/institutionalised-positioning/) where we see ‘Microsoft Security Shocker As 250 Million Customer Records Exposed Online’ (source: Forbes), and add to that the recent forged key issue, an issue that the NSA warned them for 3 years ago, we see a much larger stage. A stage where Microsoft is bleeding faith, the faith the customers had in them is dwindling down, as such Evroc could take away a much larger part of that blue joke. As such Microsoft could face a much larger loss. It would be nice to state that Amazon loses less, but certain other parts might not make that realistic. The only player optionally not losing any is Apple. Their largest base are iPhone users with subscriptions. 

These 4 parts show that Evroc is the new player to watch. If that is the case they will need staff all over the world. Even I would like to work for a new player and that is the second danger that they (mostly Microsoft) faces. If Amazon and Microsoft only lose 5% of their cloud workforce they both face shortages all over, and this is in a place where you need all hands on deck. This last part is hugely speculative, but with 8 new centres coming and optionally 2-5 more in the middle east Evroc is set to grow beyond the assessments of analysts. As such Mattias Åström and its new Evroc could be a force to be reckoned with and as such bring massive cash coffers into the EU and towards the Middle East as well and all that revenue goes out of the US and that is a loss the US was not ready for.

Enjoy the weekend 

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