Category Archives: Finance

April 11, 2023 · 13:01

It’s a point of view

This happens all the time, we all have a point of view and others have their point of view and they do not completely align. There is no right versus wrong issue, or there could be, but there is every chance that some views are based on three points. Consider a rectangle or a square, they both have points A,B,C and D, but we only see three of them, and with three you can tell whether it is a square or a rectangle, you merely miss one point and base your view on the other three points. It does not matter which point is missing, you get a decent view, but someone who sees A,B and D will draw slightly different conclusions than someone who has B,C and D. Neither is wrong, but they do not complete align because the events that surround these 4 points are different. This is how I see it and as such I took great interest in the Australian Financial Review (at https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/opec-s-gamble-can-the-global-economy-cope-with-higher-oil-prices-20230410-p5cz7f) where we see ‘OPEC’s gamble: can the global economy cope with higher oil prices?’, so whatever you see next, whatever difference I have, I am not dismissing THEIR view. I like their view, I might not completely agree, but they will have another point plotted towards their view. 

And we start with “the risks for the Saudis and the global economy are high if they push it too far. “We have high inflation, economies potentially going into recession, and this is a situation where you need lower oil prices for a short period of time for the economy to recover,” says Adi Imsirovic at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), who once ran oil trading at Russia’s Gazprom.” It is not the first part of the story but it matters. You see, the UK, EU and US are in the metropolitan areas a mobile workforce. Adi Imsirovic can cry for chap oil all he likes, but the setting of ‘lower oil prices’ all you like, but people have been playing that tune for too long and NO ONE is looking at Brent oil on this. You all became a import commodity economy and that comes at a price, especially when you piss off the exporters. In the UK take a look at the laughable CAAT, they were all crying and not to mention Just stop oil group. Now you see the impact of higher oil prices and the players did this to themselves. You cannot push around an ally (Saudi Arabia) and then demand cheap oil, a commodity supplier who can close their own supply valve. 

This also impacts “Abdulaziz also managed to confound those speculators who had bet on falling oil prices after the recent banking crisis sparked new fears about the global economy.” In a stage I warned for for well over two years, the term “confound those speculators who had bet on falling oil prices” is a joke (and a bd one at that). You see, this danger was out there for some time and betting? That is what you do in Las Vegas where the odds are wild and when the US and EU (UK too) decided to make the odds wilder by insulting their proclaimed ally the writing of higher oil prices and less oil was on the wall. And all this was BEFORE China saw its path clear to give the bird to the USA (that gesture with the finger). As such Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman did exactly what was required for the good of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it might not reflect on the needs of the cheap oil deliverers, but they could go cry at the fountain of Brent oil but the media does not report on that, Brent Crude (operating on behalf of ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell) might be ‘too big’ for the media. Yet I have not seen anything regarding Darren Woods and Wael Sawan regarding dropping oil prices. Why is that? We see all the fingers towards Saud Arabia, yet Shell beat profit expectations towards $40 billion and ExxonMobile  beat it with $56 billion. And both broke expectations above 150%, as such I have issues with the entire OPEC setting. And when it comes to ‘lower oil prices’ who bet on this on Brent Crude lowering them? I am willing to set whatever I have at present ($0.70) that the amount of gamblers will add up to ZERO. Which makes me $25.2 (not enough for my new apartment). 

So when we get to “Now the question is if OPEC’s surprise cut will raise prices too quickly for the health of a fragile global economy, especially as central bankers continue their quest to tame inflation” no one is looking at the one element EVERYONE is ignoring. Inflation is also tamed buy banks having their donkeys on a row and with Credit Suisse and a few American banks we can say that this is not the case. So when we consider last week revelation by the BBC ‘Swiss probe into UBS takeover of Credit Suisse’ as well as the news only 2 hours ago that there is something brewing with the Viva Energy deal at $1.15 billion, I reckon that inflation issues are a lot larger than merely through oil and it is time that banks are properly looked at, because they are the so called power players in any inflation deal and no one is stopping certain players. Why is that? And when you consider the larger station, no one is acknowledging that commodities are at the power of the supplier and pissing off one of the biggest suppliers whist you shun two others for whatever decent reason (Iran and Russia), you need to reconsider the stupidity of any action against the third player who basically has had enough and now that China sees a larger playing field, they will take that option, especially if they can do it for a few Yuan more. That too is missing from the equation. That gives us a new discussion or consideration. So here is the new setting, it is not whether we were looking at a square or a rectangle, but we were looking at three points of an octagon/polygon. We were seeing the points correctly, but the stage was not properly marked and that makes neither wrong, it makes us both incomplete and consider that I am a mere blogger without a economics degree and the other player is the Australian Financial Review (and many other newspapers), who has the better excuse for not seeing the whole field? Consider that for a moment and consider the people pointing fingers at Saudi Arabia, why are they pointing there and not in other directions as well. In all this I believe that they have the proper reasons, can the same be said for Brent Crude? I will let you decide.

Enjoy the day.

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April 9, 2023 · 11:44

Presentations of what exactly?

That is where my mind is at today. This is not some setting of she said…she said. This is not one against the other, this is about what is real and what is mediated fake. There is a gap there that is as wide as the Grand Canyon, but the media is intent on making that gap seem like a little bump, something that can be discussed, even if they have made no headway in over two decades. 

To see this, we need to look at two sources. The first source is the Middle East monitor (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230408-cia-chief-visits-saudi-arabia-to-express-frustration-about-iran-rapprochement/) 

Source 1
Here we are given ‘CIA chief visits Saudi Arabia to express frustration about Iran rapprochement’ with the text “Burns told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the US felt “blindsided” by Riyadh’s rapprochement with Iran and Syria – Washington’s global rivals – according to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter. It cited a US official who said Burns discussed cooperation on intelligence and counterterrorism with Saudi officials.”

This is followed by my personal view

“Bill Burns, in my personal view you achieved fuck all, in two decades Iran was able to push, your governments actions had no impact and over the last three years we saw Iran successfully smuggle weapons and gear to Houthi Terrorists. The media (with a little push) ignored the presentations of Colonel Turki Al-Maliki. Your organisation ignored facts, your organisation drowned voices and all for the good of the United States at the expense of everything. It is also a personal view that the CIA has been acting to achieve maximum destabilisation so that the USA had the big presentation to be the solution to everything Middle East based. How long did you think that you could continue that path?”

I believe now and have always been of the mind that Saudi Arabia needs to do what is best for its country and its citizens. On a side note ‘rapprochement’ means “an establishment or resumption of harmonious relations”, which is presently not the case and might take some time to get to that level. So as we are given “The United States and Saudi Arabia for decades have cooperated closely on counter-terrorism and other intelligence matters” I have a few other issues, it is my personal belief that the US merely wants to know everything that they can (which makes sense) and they are doing it at the cost of everything and anyone. In this we can point at the case of the alleged thief and alleged traitor Saad bin Khalid Al Jabri. So how are they working together whilst Saad bin Khalid Al Jabri controls a CIA portfolio of a lot of money. So how close is the USA working with Saudi Arabia? It is merely a question, but the numbers are starting to add up and now that Saudi Arabia has decided to lower the oil deliveries by a million barrels, the US economy is starting to hurt really bad in America. It will not be visible for at least 60-90 days, but by the summer the US will be in deep waters and they need a solution, their inactions are going to be the cause of their own downfall. 

Source 2
The second source is Reuters (at https://www.reuters.com/world/cias-burns-reaffirmed-intelligence-cooperation-saudi-arabia-visit-us-official-2023-04-06/) where we see ‘CIA’s Burns reaffirmed intelligence cooperation on Saudi Arabia visit – US official’ we get to see here “The United States and Saudi Arabia for decades have cooperated closely on counterterrorism and other intelligence matters” the rest could be seen as bland bla bla. 

The US is now in a larger stage of being pushed out of the Middle East. I made references to this for at least a year, first failed strategies, then the failed actions regarding Yemen and now the economy will falter. The options for the US are now falling away faster and faster and they did it to themselves.

Saudi Arabia must do what is best for its nation and its citizens and the events we saw in the last 5 years give rise to the fact that the USA is no longer the best option. And whilst we lay blame (not me), consider the actions of the last 5 years including the UN essay writer. Consider what WAS real and what might have been, and we were given what might have been too often and now that China has been successfully courting Saudi Arabia other issues will come. Iran is considering a new stage where it cannot fight Saudi Arabia AND Israel. It is therefor in a stage to make islamic choices towards Saudi Arabia and that allows for Iran to focus on Israel. It does not sound good for Houthi terrorists, but that is life. And now the US will lose a lot more than they counted on and the damage is getting worse, a lot worse. Their arms industry is losing grounds to China, which implies that that well is drying up faster than a saucer of water in the Rub’ Al Khali. What happens next is anyones guess but as I personally see it, the US policies have failed and now they need to rectify largely or be cast out of the region, on the upside, the US can still cater to Tel Aviv and whatever space they have.

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April 8, 2023 · 00:07

It has holes

There are a number of issues with banks, the latest one is the one I left alone initially. It was the Credit Suisse – UBS issue. 

The initial issue are the holes, like a Swiss cheese, it has holes. In the cheese it is accepted as it is part of the process. But with banks? How many holes can we allow for? Now, the ice is thin here. I am not an economist and I am no banking person, So what do I know? Well, I know infrastructures going back to my Intelligence days, I have seen companies getting gobbled up and in some cases for all the wrong reasons, you see those parts were on paper pleasing, but the reality of it was that reality bites and that is when you feel like a Japanese guy gobbling up a live fish. That is seemingly OK, until the fish eaten is a piranha and it starts eating you from the inside out.

So lets get back to the first article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65177258) where we see ‘Credit Suisse investors angrily confront bank as chairman says sorry’. There we see Ulrich Korner in some stage of apathy. He reminded me of a Dutch political comic in one of their newspapers (a long time ago) where we see “When we get to item 4, it would be best if at least one of the board members start crying”. It felt like a farce, a joke for the stockholders who are about to lose a lot more than they bargained for. The text the BBC gives us is “The loss-making bank had already been struggling for a number of years after a series of scandals, compliance problems and bad financial bets. Mr Lehmann told investors at the Annual General Meeting that management had a plan to turn things around but had been “thwarted” by fears prompted by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US.” I personally feel like this is misdirection. I personally believe that the US bond issues are stretched on several fronts and as I wrote in previous articles, how did Credit Suisse stock up on the Basel III front? What was the safety gap? It is my personally belief that there was close to none (or at least a lot too little), and now Credit Suisse will be removed and their banks will hoist the UBS logo soon enough, especially with the scandals and bad bets that were made. 

Yet that same day, the Irish times (at https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/2023/04/05/ubs-chair-says-credit-suisse-integration-will-take-up-to-four-years/) shows us ‘UBS chair says Credit Suisse integration will take up to four years’ that is for banking in these volatile times a massive risk to take and it is not taken lightly, as such I believe that people like Janet Yellen would have been on the phone with a few people. When the American bonds go, the US economy will go and I reckon they will take the Japanese and EU economy into the abyss with them. It is a personal view and I have nothing to prove it with, but the weak response from the media implies that these sources got told to play it cool or face consequences. It is a speculation, but when we take the view I had in the past on Shareholders and stake holders, I belief that I am decently correct and it is a personal view after all.

The Irish Times also gives us “Even with downside protection in the form of government support, there’s a “huge amount of risk in integrating these businesses,” Mr Kelleher, who is from Cork, said in prepared remarks for the bank’s annual general meeting on Wednesday.” The setting is that UBS is getting the bank for three billion Swiss francs. One source tells us “How much a company is worth is typically represented by its market capitalisation, or the current stock price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding. Credit Suisse Group net worth as of April 06, 2023 is $2.76B.” When we see other sources we get “Total assets CHF 531 billion and Total equity CHF 45 billion” this was last year and they have a little over 50,000 staff. I reckon that the bosses there are working on their resume and I would suggest the word ‘scandal’ is written correctly, because involvement in sandal does not go over well in the financial sector. And when you see these numbers, it is all sold for 3 billion? And we see no serious questions from any media. 

So what is left of the assets? What are the bond numbers and total value per nation of bonds acquired. There is no insight of that. Just like the meltdown of 2008 no one is to blame and the US is fixing the carper so that it can hide more dirty laundry. So how long until the people realise that their economy is largely based on an empty egg shell? 

The Irish Times also gives us “Shareholders will receive one UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held” this implies a mere 4.44% of value return for the shareholders, yes their value goes up butt this level of saturation is an issue and I reckon that more banks will follow at some point. Banks will become bad investment for the tax write off and the shareholders will lose out. Don’t get me wrong, I have no real sympathy for them, this is the outcome of shares and stocks. Sometimes you lose. But we need to look back to 2012. In the Netherlands we saw ‘SNS Reaal mulls bad bank for property operations’ (source: Reuters), it was their too big to fail operation and the people were not happy, it was a setting of real estate that was just beyond believe and now we get a similar setting but now it is not real estate, it is banks that are the bad investments and how many of them are holding bonds? The fact that the media never properly investigated this implies that I am a lot closer to the truth than even I am happy about. 

And the last part is giving us ““I understand that not all stakeholders of UBS and Credit Suisse are pleased with this approach,” Mr Kelleher said. “However, all parties, and in particular the Swiss authorities, considered this solution the best of all available options.” – Bloomberg” yes that sounds good, but I have a list (and that is just the Credit Suisse naughty list).

US tax fraud conspiracy, 2014, 2023
Malaysia Development Berhad scandal, 2015
Mozambique secret loans scandal, 2017
US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act violation, 2018
Climate controversy, 2018
Espionage scandal, 2019 (debatable issue)
Greensill Capital, 2021
Archegos Capital, 2021
Forex manipulations conviction, 2021
Drug money laundering scandal, 2022
Suisse secrets leak, 2022 (debatable issue, I still believe it was an NSA activity)
Russian oligarch loans documents destruction after invasion of Ukraine, 2022
Social media rumours, 2022 (debatable)

So 10 issues and 3 debatable issues, but the debatable issues do leave a mess at the front door of Credit Suisse. In all this Credit Suisse is walking around without clean hands, and the hands must always be clean. So does that warrant a CHF 550 billion downgrade? I honestly d not know and there is debate on some of these sources. I get that there will be differences in sources, but this much? This does not make sense, but it makes a lot more sense when we consider where the priority of Janet Yellen is and it is not the bank, it is the USA. Taking her away from the issues and letting it all be phrased by Bloomberg is not acceptable, not in the least. As Baby Herman states “This all smells like yesterday’s diapers”

As I personally see it, this bank issue has holes like we see in Swiss Cheese. 

Have a great day!

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April 6, 2023 · 01:12

Whilst questions remain

I tend to avoid issues on religion, especially when it is a religion I know nothing about. As such I never read that Rushdie book. It was an attack on Islam, I am not Islam and I know next to nothing on the Quran. The people who also knew nothing on the Quran decided to read it and decided that Islam was evil on that reason alone. I never understood that approach. 

So when I saw (t https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65165513) ‘New capital’s lavish mosque angers Egyptians facing poverty’. And it dos not stop there. The article by Imogen James has a lot more shortcomings. First we get “But the unveiling of the new centre and mosque was criticised on social media. It comes at a time when Egypt has been fighting soaring prices, with inflation running at just over 30% in March.” And when we look back to 2022 (source: Arab News) we get “Saudi Arabia is the second largest investor in Egypt, with $6.1 billion poured into 6,017 projects, according to the north African country’s Minister of Trade and Industry Ahmed Samir”, is there any chance that this mosque is one of these investments? I am just asking, I do not know and the article which relies on ‘social media’ sources is not that reliable, are they. As such my question becomes “Blathnaid Healy, how stupid are your people?” However, we need to return to the article. The next part is “Another user said that the mosque remains closed all year, opening every three months so a hundred people can use it, then it is closed again.” I have a few questions here. What sources were investigated? Was this even true? You see, the person in me thinks that any Mosque is open all day for prayer, but that is me. And it is at this point that I would like to call to the Egypt Independent (at https://egyptindependent.com/all-you-need-to-know-about-egypts-islamic-cultural-center-misr-mosque-that-claims-3-guinness-world-records/) who gives us ‘All you need to know about Egypt’s Islamic Cultural Center, Misr Mosque that claims 3 Guinness World Records’ and that starts the race. They also call it an Islamic cultural centre. The photo they sport (see below) shows a building that makes most buildings in the Vatican look vastly inferior. 

We are also give given “as well as a group of spacious and multi-storey garages, with a capacity of about 4,000 cars.” Interesting, because they wouldn’t bother for a place opened 3 months a year for 100 people. There is seemingly a lot that the BBC refrained from mentioning. The other photo’s (see the article) show a building that rivals the impressiveness of the Indian Taj Mahal. But the BBC failed to mention that. The one photo we saw by the BBC on the inside was decent, but they refrained from showing us just how spectacular the building was. I wonder if Imogen James ever saw it herself. In case there are any doubts, I wonder if Blathnaid Healy would be so kind to show us photo’s of Imogen James outside of that mosque, and perhaps find a decent journalist to actually cover decent reporting on that building? Even if it is to properly inform the 3.8 million muslims living in the UK. I would do it, but I am short of a job and a passport (and expenses) and I believe the BBC should do a much better job than they are presently doing. That impression is gotten from the three Guinness world book of records that this building achieved to win. One could argue that the BBC should cover that in three articles and a decent fourth on the mosque and one on the services that the Islamic centre covers and Blathnaid, for the love of everything holy cover that and optionally rectify that 100 people per 3 months line. This place was meant for 107,000 worshippers which equals Vatican City, as such covering such an event should show the power and prestige of this mosque. I think its only fair. And as I see it someone named Mr. Healy better get moving because the impression that the BBC has been leaving on the global stage is slipping, it is slipping by a lot. But yes, that is merely my personal view on the matter.

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April 5, 2023 · 01:57

A promise kept

It all started a little before February 1st 2022. It was when I wrote ‘The opportunity for 2022’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/02/01/the-opportunity-for-2022/) this is when my brain saw the opportunity that Augmented Reality saw for what it was. It took a little longer before I set it the premise to paper and with the videos of the Eaton Centre Mall (Toronto), I saw the setting to engage the audience of a mall (pretty much all 116,000 malls) that AR was the ticket to drive engagement It was then that my mind created 8 pieces of IP, the 9th came one day later when I realised a few items that tarted to mingle in the process. You see, we see mobiles and AR, but we (basically they) do not see the larger stage. 

From my MAPINT days, we were working with maps and thematic layers. It is nothing complex. It is a map and over that map we set a transparent layer which we fill with information that overlay the map. Population, usage information, measurements. It could be nearly everything. But when we put a OVER a mobile phone, the phone maker needs to adjust for it. It can be done ‘as is’, but images become messy, and now we get to the setting.

The maker (Tiffany for example) ads the code on to a business card (the back side most likely). The code is for example a ring, a high end ring that now does not need to be shown to the people, with all the dangers of it getting stolen. But that is only a small part of it. The larger part is that the ring is now advertised by the people to everyone else. Thousands will send to thousands and the Tiffany product will reach millions in the stretch of a day, all it costed them was a business card. Optionally the edge will show the Tiffany logo.

Now we get to the thematic layer. That shows the ring in high resolution, but it does so over what was under the layer. So when you photograph your hand with that layer, the intelligence that was in the thematic layer will place the ring on your finger and the intelligence does the rest. Rings, bracelets and you photograph it to set on your hand and photograph it with that selfie you could send it all over the place with the question “Does this look good on me?” And when it is a Tiffany ring the responses will come from ‘great’ to ‘amazing’ A simple equation added to a phone, an iOS or Android phone. I saw this happen well over a year ago and no one seemingly picked it up. Go read up, no one had it and no one wanted to buy it, so I am handing this out for free. So when a Huawei phone adds this option and you can show your feet with the new Nike shoes that only can have 50,000 owners, would you do this? I am certain that you will. The pull of short term gratification through selfie has been well documented for well over a decade.

The AR code was a way to liven up malls, they need to create waves of interactions and that was one of them. Victoria secrets has the option of setting an AR window that overlayed part of their shop, now they have a daily run of Victoria Secrets models showing their goods and it will create a huge following (leave it to single men admiring women in lingerie) and that is not merely the start of it. The AR window is aganst the outside window, as such the models will walk over a local catwalk whilst never being there.

Jewellers, fashion even book shops have options in their repertoire and it draws in the people. It was that simple a jump and who has done it so far? Who got to that point? It is now known that Tiffany and I believe it was Gucci are setting serious coin towards Arm towards the digital development of their wares, which is good. But let it be clear I got there a year early and now because of the Public Domain event, everyone can get there. So you all have a nice day and see what you can make of your goods and where AR can take you.

I kept my promise and I will snore like a sawmill today (its 01:50).

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April 4, 2023 · 09:07

Weird Wall Writing

Yes, that is what it amounts to and it is making me giddy. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65157555, a mere 8 hours ago) gives us ‘Oil prices surge after surprise move to cut output’. Why is it making me giddy? Well that is simple. On March 29th I wrote ‘The snooze that does not wake’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/29/the-snooze-that-does-not-wake/). Then there was ‘Oil in the family’ on November 23rd (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/11/23/oil-in-the-family/) where I stated “Its games are now backfiring, should oil deliveries decrease by as little as an additional 1 million barrels US economy could implode with all the nightmares and trimmings that come with that.” The messages go on and on and it goes well before ‘Two Issues in play’ which I wrote in November 2018 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/11/20/two-issues-in-play/). As such I have ben pointing to this danger for 5 years, but people all around me were shouting that I was mad, that this would never happen. Now the BBC gives us “the US has been calling for producers to increase output in order to push energy prices lower. A spokesperson for the US National Security Council said: “We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty – and we’ve made that clear.”” Oh, and how many oil farms does that person have? The US played the commodity war for decades and it has been to their favour for too long, now that idiots playing with the government credit card increasing debt after debt, the commodities that they do not own become an anchor. Oh, and that being said. How much oil did Brent keep on American soil to keep the price down? Last I heard 89% is exported. So before you scream, look at ALL the facts. So when I see “This surprise announcement is significant for several reasons.” Was it really? I warned for this danger for years, the last warning was a year ago and I reckon that the 1 million barrels a day will go to China. A stage everyone disregarded. So whilst we all cry against these mean mean Arabs, consider that America has been playing this game for favours for decades, now that the tables are turned it is suddenly a problem?

The second laugh I got from “Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, warned that the oil price surge could make the battle to bring down inflation harder. However, she said that rising oil prices won’t necessarily lead to higher household energy bills.” Hah! Tell me another one, I got a bridge for sale, nice view on the Sydney Opera house. Yes, the price hike will not be immediate, but there will be a price hike, I feel very certain about that. Consider that 1,000,000 barrels a day might not seem massive, but there is already a shortage, as such the hike will come no later than 90 days for now (which is a personal speculation).  

Here the writing was on the wall and Aramco (as well as Saudi Arabia) might have had enough of the false friend naming by the US (EU too), this is their response, it is one that China has been looking forward to, I reckon Russia as well. 

And here endeth the lesson today. However I have another surprise coming up. After all these clowns shouting at me, I will make another IP Public Domain within the next 24 hours. I will show you just what Apple, Google and others missed out on and it seems nice for Tiffany (and Co) to see the impact of public domain, this time it is on Augmented Reality. Have a great day.

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April 3, 2023 · 00:48

I’ll buy that for a Yuan

It is a little unlike I stated things earlier, yet Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/program/counting-the-cost/2023/4/1/can-russia-and-china-succeed-in-dethroning-the-dollar) gives us ‘Can Russia and China succeed in dethroning the dollar?’ I cannot agree, because personally I believe that any partnership there will be facing an united front to dethrone that idea. Yet I made notions to some degree that there would be coming a new world order, America is exiting the stage on the right and with the debts they have it is game over for them. If only they had taken my warning 25 years ago and overhauled their tax system. I personally hoped that the new world order would include the Commonwealth (I am commonwealthian after all). Here, in Al Jazeera we see more but not the names. In some sources I saw a list of countries. Yet I personally believe that this list is most likely to include China, Saudi Arabia, India and personally I would include the Commonwealth, not merely the UK. And the issue is that China could pull this off, the US and EU are too weak, they are all hot air and they aren’t getting the job dome, they are both too deep into debt and the EU is dragging half a dozen members along who are slowing them down, they all want a slice of the pie and aren’t contributing enough. 

Yet in my view, I never considered dousing the dollar (perhaps my folly), and with oil being the ignored requirement Saudi Arabia becomes a required ally for that new order. India with its consumer base of one point four billion cannot be ignored either, that and the case that they have the ability to fill IT infrastructure needs nearly everywhere. There might be one or two other players China needs, but they will feel that inviting the Commonwealth might do the trick, as Canada in the west and Australia in the east will settle issues the assassination triangle will be filled. You know, I wrote about it. Segregation, Isolation, Assassination. America segregated itself with silly settings of free speech (Karen’s anyone? Proud boys and that list goes on), now they are one step away from becoming irrelevant and obsolete, if only they had acted these last to years. We saw someone start an insurrection, claiming to take the nation back. This act is now 2 years old and still the people behind it all are walking the streets free with in the end a porn star ‘saving’ America. That time is now showing to be their downfall, inactions from too many sides is hurting them bad and all along China kept moving slowly step by step and now that China has infrastructure and defence deals their goals are almost met. The wet merely grinds towards a halt through inactivity. The news is all around us and the media is carefully ignoring a lot of it. The benefit of stake holders I speculate.

I warned of parts of this well before 2019, well before covid and now that timeline is nearing completion. That all sounds nice, but am I correct? That would be a fair question, but consider that the larger deals out there involve China and Saudi Arabia, who of them has the US dollar? I am not saying this is essential, and as long as there is an alternative, these two might seek the alternative. And consider the two refineries that are commencing the build, where will the oil come from? Exactly, from Saudi Arabia and the peace process that China instigated will give them even more oil, we might shout loudly, but in the end, the US gave us the expression that was hanging around too many necks. Money talks and bullshit walks. And now others are telling the US to keep on walking.

I merely hope that this new order will exclude Russia (who is now presiding over the Security Council) and it will include the Commonwealth. Now consider that the United Nation Security Council (UNSC) has been around since 1945 and we are given “The Security Council’s five permanent members, below, have the power to veto any substantive resolution; this allows a permanent member to block adoption of a resolution, but not to prevent or end debate.” Now consider that NO ONE seemingly had the idea to remove the veto right of any permanent member who instigates a war for the duration of that war? For some reason that never dawned on any of them and the 5 members (China, United Kingdom, Russia, France and the United States) merely accepted that setting? How is that working out for them now?

The United States is now massively boxed in and to a much larger degree it is all due to their own inactions. As such there is every chance that the mediocre 5G technologies will soon see a lot more of Huawei, because they have been fully rolled out in China and Saudi Arabia, who had until recently (I didn’t recheck the numbers) a 5G network that is 700% faster than the US, how is that adding up to your view of a technology first nation? To be behind Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Canada? Al Jazeera raised a point that most were happily willing to bury anywhere, but I believe it is slightly too late for that. 

Enjoy the day and for your consideration there is a Canadian 16 year old blasting a whole range of records and she set at least two new world records. According to CBC, she is nowhere near done yet.

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April 2, 2023 · 02:03

Fortune cookies

This is not the food stuff (which I love), these are phrases that appear on social media. I dislike them for the most, they tend to be snippets of a much larger framework, as such the message is trying to lure in an audience on an incomplete part. This is the main reason why I dislike them and life cookies shouldn’t be on LinkedIn, but that might merely be me. I will happily admit to that flaw in me.

Yet in the last 24 hours I got two messages that did make a ring to me, that made appeal which instilled something in me. OK, it happens. I am not without flaws or without wonder if need be.

Music is what feelings sound like
That was the first phrase. It seems shallow, but it is not. Is this why older people tend to appreciate classical music? And if music is the noise of feelings, how complex does music needs to become before some are struck by it? And there is no alternative, as such those who do not appreciate or accept music, what of them? I do not know, I am asking. I went from the young need of pop music, I felt connection to Jean Michel Jarre and David Bowie from the 70’s onwards.

I became a Jean Michel Jarre fan when Oxygène (Part IV) became a hit in the Netherlands in 1977. I am still a fan to this day and I tend to play his albums at least once a month. My introduction to David Bowie was in the same year with Sound and Vision, which was on the album Low.

Yet the first album I bought on CD was Lodger (1979), after that, over time I got most of his albums. If they appeal to our feelings, what are our feelings? Even now (decades later) my appreciation of Bowie is a lot larger than it was 45 years earlier. How come? I have other music I really like. Kate Bush, Alan Parsons and Kraftwerk. Music I still love decades later. There is new music too, but these 5 never wavered. Is it because I cannot identify the feelings? Is it something else? I honestly do not know. We could take these feelings in other directions too. Like thanking Ridley Scott for creating a movie so that Starman finally has a perfect video, and lets not forget that the movie was pretty phenomenal as well. I took this side-road to emphasise that this could become a chicken and egg setting. What was first, the feeling, or the identity of the sound that is seemingly connected? 

To see this to some degree, we ned to take a sidestep to the Troubadour, who was a composer and performer of Old Occitan lyric poetry from 1100 onwards. He would be replaced to a larger degree in the 12th century by the minstrel. Yet they did not translate our feelings, they instilled the feelings of courage and victory in whatever stage is presented itself. The minstrel was more into getting a gold piece (and food) from the castle lord who he was performing to, as such he tended to play what they wanted to hear and it usually came with clerical sides too, because in those days the church was almighty and as such speaking of biblical virtues would go over well with the clergy in that place and as such with the lord too (who might have preferred songs of adulterous women). 

So when did music became the sound of our hearts? I am not attacking the phrase, it made me think, I wonder how we see music and how we value it and we do value it, consider the best songs from the last 10 years, what song has meaning to you? And it can be for the simplest or most direct reason.

A mind is like a parachute, it doesn’t work if it isn’t open
That was the second phrase, it was not related to the first, but I feel it is connected. It is an important distinguish as I am still working on other IP and a closed mind doesn’t get me there. Even as I have several pieces in play, the larger stage is where else I can go, and I wonder where I can take myself. I believe that there are hard and for some even harder times ahead. As such I need to see where I will go next, where I can be a return on investment and where I will be properly valued, not the wankers near me who make claims and like always, they will never deliver, they want a free ride and I have made 2-3 of these works public domain, so they get nothing and now they are afraid, they never considered that I would make it public domain and never get anything myself. It was their very stupid mistake. I have seen these stupid people trying to weasel fake promise after fake promise only to come with the lamest of excuses afterwards. As such more will become public domain soon enough. Especially some of the Augmented Reality settings. I saw the field and I saw it grow beyond the big 3D screen with Versace. I saw the field where they could set a new age on Android and iOS, but I reckon they missed that boat and now it is about to become Public Domain, the open mind sees what more there could be, it sees that greed is the dampening of an open mind, as such I decided to make some of it PD. So what happens when they miss out more and the 6G ideas become an open field for anyone in that approaching stage? Suddenly some of the larger firms will see that shedding jobs was a clear choice, but not the best one. That is how I see it. 

And before you think I am kidding, consider the stories from the last two weeks. I showed to be correct with articles that are months old, so how much more convincing would anyone need? I do not care, I still have a few ideas in the barrel and as I make some PD, other ideas are added to the barrel. Amazon left well over $5,000,000,000 a year on the floor (as did Google), so what contracting economy were they looking at? I get it Microsoft is a lot cause, but the other two are actual innovators, they should be running circles around me, that is not the case, it is almost the reverse (in some ways only). Yet the thinker would come to the same conclusion I came to a year ago. How am I running circles around them in even one field? That is what the open mind is trying to figure out and as I listen to Iggy Pop I will finish my sandwich and after that snore like a sawmill.

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April 1, 2023 · 18:54

Focal and blinders

We all face them at times, I am no different. The problem is when is what what. Let me be a little more clear, in my case Microsoft is an issue, as I personally see it, if they buy Blizzard, they will need $92,000,000 of profit a day just to break even with the purchase of 3 houses (Mojang, Bethesda and Blizzard), now this is not set correctly, they bought Mojang some time ago, as such the amount is a few million less, but it is not less by much. They already crashed Redfall PS5, which they are allowed to do. They are allowed to do whatever they need to with what they own. Yet, consider that the PS5 has well over 30,000,000 consoles in the field and they allegedly need $92 million a day, does the act make sense? So am I concentrating on a focal, or a blinder. Consider that a blinder lets you NOT see in a specific direction. We attribute all kinds of ‘evil’ towards Microsoft, are they blinders or are they seen as the result of a focal? That is actually a lot harder to answer than you think. When is one could also be the other.

As such I have been concentrating on my two IP projects. Project Graveyard and Project Cluster. Two very different software and hardware IP settings. They both fit the Amazon Luna and optionally whomever buys the Google Stadia, which is why Kingdom Holdings was on my radar. One will be a decent downfall for Microsoft the other no less, but also takes the steam out of Facebook, and as such Amazon was the logical path to take and not just merely logical, Amazon was about to get a whole new range of revenue because of it. Yet I try not to be smitten by either blinders or focal (no matter how much fun they are). As such I saw the appearance of Tencent on time and even as several players are willing to ignore Tencent, I cannot and I will not. Tencent has seemingly the ability to unite gamers. In addition it allows China to grow in one additional industry where Americans thought they would not exist and now Microsoft in particular will have a problem because of the required $92 million a day will become a nose grounded with an anchor around the neck of American economy. And there are plenty of nay sayer spinners on the internet. It is all Microsoft and they are all getting on top of things. So lets have a go at that list 

1. Microsoft would acquire Mandiant to solve their solarwinds issue
There was one news cycle and then suddenly it went dark, there was no more news. I raised it in ‘What we hope for’ on March 7th 2022 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/07/what-we-hope-for/). It became part of Google and it is a Google solution now. After that Microsoft and cyber solutions went a little dark on the matter.

2. Microsoft had a new Tablet to WOW the world. No, it didn’t never got close to the Apple iPad and it got even less close to the iPad Air, two devices that were more able and had a larger following and it still does. It still has a lot more to offer, but the spinners came with the ‘with the keyboard it was a more complete laptop’. No, it was not and it will never be that more. I saw people howling with agony as they saw failure after failure on their Surface. I still see some people trying to spin that thing. A $1650 solution trying to win over a $500 iPad, all whilst Apple has the more versatile device.

3. Microsoft has the cloud solution, Azure. Smell it, it smells nice. Which is laughingly the biggest loser of them all. In clarity, Azure is not bad, it lacks and it has no business in gaming. Azure is the Microsoft solution and after 3 years it is nowhere near ready to take on the AWS (Amazon Cloud solution). Last month someone wrote (not me) “Azure is more costly. Azure is the finest alternative for a robust Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) provider and even a Windows integration. If a company needs infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) or a wide range of tools, AWS may be the ideal option”, so where are the SAAS and GAAS comparisons? And when I look, there is always a hidden issue where the people are promoting THEIR solution, no matter whether it involves AWS or Azure (Google is falling behind too much). At the moment the marketshare of AWS is a lot larger and in some reports it seems like Google cloud and IBM cloud are underreported. What matters is that this is another field where Microsoft is not ahead. 

4. The Microsoft gaming console is the most powerful in the world. It might be true, but the weakest console of them all (Nintendo Switch) surpassed the Microsoft sales numbers by a lot and did it in half the time Microsoft with their X/S console were in the field. Even now, these numbers of X and S series consoles are aggregated, the loss is that defining. They are way behind  the PS5 with their X series console, but it is the most powerful in the world. In addition the PS5 has a whole range of next generation titles that goes into the dozen and the Microsoft console is lacking there, even after two years it is still lacking in Next generation titles. 

I will ignore issues 5,6 and 7. 4 fields where Microsoft will need to do a lot better and for years they were not able to do so. So where is that $92 million a day profit coming from? I cannot see it, can you? And that was merely to claw back the investments on gaming alone. Amazon is hungry and they are driving their AWS (and optionally their Amazon Luna too) making the pain for Microsoft larger. Apple has a firm grip on their devices and even as we might not like Apple, their devices are solid and Microsoft has no chance of driving a wedge there. And as I see it, they already lost the console war. In that environment Microsoft is bleeding revenue all over the field, their books are red with blood and red ink. And for their security I have not seen an alternative for Mandiant (owned by Google). So where are they now? When will we see another Solarwinds? It is not a given, but they lack in cyber security, so I fail to see how they will stop the next wave. 

And now the battle field changes further, Tencent is about to arrive, I merely wonder if that was one of the reasons why the E3 was cancelled (I honestly do not know). If Tencent arrives, it arrives with more options and more settings than the Microsoft console field will allow for, no matter how that plays out, it makes the Blizzard $65,000,000,000 a massive anchor around the neck of Microsoft and it will hurt them, no matter what ideas they have. Tencent has been funding a lot of Unreal engine 5 stuff, as such they could wow the gaming community and if they are going the direction I am speculating on, it will hurt both Microsoft and Amazon to a larger degree, in this the pain to Apple remains unknown, or it might be minor. And that is all before some figure out that Project Cluster will enable a lot more than anyone considered, it was meant for that, to be ready for national 5G implementations. How many of them did that off the bat and how many (implying Microsoft) stated “We will get to that when it is ready”, it is the short term focal point of a quarter by quarter BI person. In this none of them have a real long term focal point and that is why Tencent is a danger to them all, they are focussing on 2025 and 2026 (the year Microsoft allegedly collapses).

So is Microsoft my blinder? Is it my focal, or did I see the stage for what it was one that offers great options for some and not that much for others. They limited their abilities by hanging an additional $65,000,000,000 anchor around their necks. I am calling it as I saw it. Perhaps I am wrong, you tell me. I gave you the numbers and the works, you can do your own research.

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March 31, 2023 · 20:09

Those cordially invited

That is a setting that is not merely an evolving one, it sort of fits several stages and it all revolves around the choices that some make. As such when the Gaming Bafta’s were on, there were two considerations. The first one was how well did Sony do, the second one is how bad Microsoft is doing. I will get to the logic a little later. Sony sort of won a few times. There was God of War who was a winner, of course the music by Bear McCreary won and Christopher Judge as the voice of Kratos won. It won 6 awards in the Gaming Bafta’s and had 15 nominations, including EE game of the year, best game went to Vampire Survivors by Luca Galante. Horizon Forbidden West by Guerrilla games, a Sony exclusive won best technical achievement. One out of 5 nominations. This maters as these two games are gaming achievements of the highest order. God of War is given a 94% score, HFW an 88% score (I personally believe it should have been a 92%). Microsoft and their acquired houses had 4 nominations and zero wins. OK, I will grant that Bethesda had bad luck having to go up against one of the Final Fantasy kids, but still as I see it, no bang for seven and a half billion spend on purchases? Perhaps next year. The big titles were not here and I was missing Hogwarts Legacy, but they might have missed the cut off point. As such Microsoft has additional issues next year and that is before the storm hits. You see, the E3 was cancelled. It does not matter what the reason is, they cancelled it for some of the players having their own spin presentation, where they can intentionally not invite those critical of them. It makes sense and it is a valid and acceptable choice to make (even as I am spinning this in personal ways too). You see, I do not know the individual reasons and that means I merely do not know. But the hardships that Bethesda presently has, the lack of releases by Microsoft houses and whatever Ubisoft has to remain absent, they might all be perfectly valid in Business Intelligence, but gamers will spin this. One source gave us in January “Ubisoft’s Project Q has now been reportedly cancelled. The PvP battle arena game was announced less than a year ago in April 2022. They’ve already delayed Skull and Bones six times now and the recent comments by CEO Yves Guillemot haven’t helped.” Another source gave us that Assassin’s Creed Mirage and The Crew: Project Orlando will not come before Q1 2024, implying that they miss the summer haul and the Christmas revenue haul (including thanksgiving), two massive revenue moment. As such it makes sense to give E3 a miss, yet I personally would have spun this into ‘We will get a better result when we take more time’ even though one game has had 6 setbacks. They basically face a lose lose proposition. In all this I set the groundworks for new IP and that actually matters this time. You see there is an element missing at present. That element is Tencent. They are giving a miss for now, but they are pouring buckets of gold into their Unreal engine 5 design teams, this implies that they could grow big next year, they could pull the carpet from under Microsoft legs. 

I did not give Tencent the consideration I could have, mainly because Amazon is a better fit, but in the setting that they are in. I am sitting on a totally new form of gaming on one hand (a small exaggeration), on the other hand the other IP in phase one could represent five billion and a lot more after that. Tencent could be the direction to grow my setting and even as I prefer Amazon as a first choice, one needs to go where the gold is (a small personal greedy direction). And as long as Microsoft is rejected as a contender, I am happy, even if Tencent ends with the IP. It still is important for me to assist in sending Microsoft to some revenue graveyard by December 2026. You think I am serious, and I am, but there is a hidden egg in the graveyard part. 

If Microsoft had focused on quality instead of spin (which they in part might be) there could have ben a little hope, yet at present when we see the Xbox Series X and after two years we still see review (source: Tom’s guide) “Few next-gen launch games” a setting you can accept in year one, but not after two years, you see how Microsoft is desperate and now I add Project: Graveyard against that setting, without Microsoft being able to attend that game? It is nice to hand Microsoft the wooden spoon in 2024, especially when they could have spend a little over $100 billion by then (Mojang, Bethesda and Blizzard) and that is before the other IP is launched (if it is sold) and before the list of Sony releases get to be even larger. Ubisoft is important for Microsoft and their consoles as they were their biggest drive, no matter how we think of some games, Ubisoft has had moment of true greatness and one additional title could safe Microsoft. So when we set the larger stage and we see the gaming Bafta’s and the E3 cancellation, the larger stage of Microsoft is as I personally see it diminishing. And the stage is worsening in other ways too, but I will write about that should Microsoft acquire Blizzard, because that is expected, but not set in stone at present.

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