Yup, my previous article on comic films preceded a BBC article. Or perhaps better stated I saw the article after I wrote my article. As coincidences, go a nice one. The BBC article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6er83ene6o) gives us ‘Hollywood’s big boom has gone bust’, I have some issues here. The first is seen with “the good times ground to a halt in May 2023, when Hollywood’s writers went on strike” I resent the implied status that this was up to the writers going on strike. And as we are given both “The actor and aerial cinematographer turned his hobby of flying drones into a profitable business in 2012 just as the streaming wars were taking off. For a decade, he was flying high above film sets, creating sleek aerial shots for movies and TV shows on Netflix, Amazon and Disney” and “But rather than roaring back, in the one year since the strikes ended, production has fizzled.” This story isn’t giving us the goods. You see there are a few elements. One is saturation of business. First there was Netflix, and not we have in addition Disney plus, Hulu, Paramount, YouTube TV, Sling, Fubo and Amazon prime. Several more to follow but these are the better ones. What was one is now eight and it doesn’t end there, there are all kinds of digital boxes who keep tabs on it all. The problem is that income levels are still the same as they were in December 2019, pretty much in synch with the first Covid setting. In 5 years most incomes are either the same or ridiculously close to that and in the meantime the cost of living has gone through the roof. Housing has been raised in many places by as much as 50%, that is hundreds of dollars a week. Food has risen by about 5% per year. There is the larger set that most people can at best afford 1 digital channel (if at all), as such all eight channels competed for the same customer at the same time. As such it isn’t merely that production fizzled, or that projects were cancelled. There is a dwindling population that cannot even afford one channel. And to relate that to the present, Disney projected it would spend between $8 billion-$9 billion on content for its premiere streaming service. Now see that investment all whilst less people could afford that TV channel. This isn’t merely America, this is a global problem. Hollywood has relied on the old Roman principle “Give the people bread and games” and now the people cannot afford the games and more and more of them are falling short for buying bread and this is happening all over the world. So whilst we get “Projects have been cancelled and production was cut across the city as jobs have dried up, with layoffs at many studios – most recently at Paramount. It had a second round of layoffs this week, as the storied movie company moves to cut 15% of its workforce ahead of a merger with the production company Skydance.” We see that there is a lull in the setting of projects and the attainment that people are in the mindset of “things will go better soon” but that is not the case. America and Europe wasted at least two years on their ego all whilst the ‘customers’ who had the cash have vacated to China. I saw this happen two years ago, which is why I created a script that could entertain the Muslim population. And I was right that SBA (Saudi Broadcasting Authority) and Dubai media are growing like crazy, all whilst the American players are merging and buying each other out. I saw the same happen in the IT in the early 90’s with a Dutch company called Infotheek. On the edge of bankruptcy, they bought the smaller players and take that revenue as your own. It didn’t work then, I doubt it will work now. And in that light America has a second problem. Many players will divert to Canada as it could be an option. Many actors and actresses are Canadian, so that works for some. Vancouver is a new powerhouse in this and the more the capture the smaller the American pie becomes. As such the article is right, Hollywood big boom has gone bust, as could be the case for Hollywood fairly soon. And there lies the problem, an over bubbled industry, A premise of channels that ned to invest billions, all whilst there is doubt that the revenue in 2026 could have diminished by 20% (at least), as such who gets the money? Then in the past 300% on investment was achievable, soon it will merely be between break even and perhaps 50%, so how many investors will leap the fence to optionally Arabic channels? I made it clear in 2020 that you cannot bite the hand that feeds you, but did the American defense industry listen? Nope and now the Chinese defense industry reports a growth of 25% year-on-year. That is money that is not going to America and now the streaming channels are optionally seeing a similar move towards Arabic nations and India. So how long until the boom turns into a gap that implodes implodes?
All things that have been out in the open, but the BBC overlooked it. It is a good story and it gives some of the goods, but it overlooked the attached factors and these are a lot more disastrous. Well, that’s it for now. It is almost lunch time for me, have a great morning wherever you are.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 