The missing ingredient

We all have that. It does not matter whether it is food, drinks, series, movies, games. When an ingredient is missed, it counts, especially when it is an ingredient we thought highly of. In Assassins Creed it became Ezio Auditore. In Tekken it was your favourite character, in NCIS for some it was Tony DiNozo, for Charmed it was Shannen Doherty. And movies have their own crosses to bare (or was that bear?). Anyway, these thoughts came up as we lost Fred Ward to Eternity. I saw him first in Escape from Alcatraz. I always considered hm a good actor and I enjoyed watching his works, especially tremors. But my mind suddenly set on Remo Williams: The Adventure Begins, which was shown in the Netherlands as Remo: Unarmed and Dangerous. There are a few issues with this movie. It would be the first time I saw Kate Mulgrew (Captain Janeway of the USS Voyager). It was not the greatest film made, but it had humour, which made the movie fun to watch. Joel Grey as Master of Sinanju Chiun was slightly too much over the top, but still fun. What was interesting was the plot. There we see an investigation of a corrupt weapons procurement program within the US Army. You see, that plot was new, or at least I had not seen it before and then the cogs started turning. Why does Netflix buy these rights and overhaul it into a mini series? You see a movie is nice, but 4-8 one hour episodes leading to a much larger, deeper and darker story might be a lot more rewarding in the long haul. And lets face it with the non functional weapons out there (USS Zumwalt, most of the Russian tanks) the setting for a large increased plot theme (especially when we pull the EU (Strasbourg) front and centre, the story could be appealing to a much larger audience, of course we will miss Fred Ward as a key ingredient, but nature tends to be unrelenting in these matters.

It is after-all about the weapons procurement program, and the stage where someone walks away with billions on a model that never went anywhere is a nice touch. It is even better if some elements are kept as close to the truth as possible. You see, Forbes gave us (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2019/10/30/an-82-year-old-is-suspected-of-decades-long-scam-selling-dangerous-weapons-parts-to-us-military/) ‘An 82-Year-Old Is Suspected Of Decades-Long Scam Selling Dangerous Weapons Parts To U.S. Military’, then there is ‘Metallurgist admits faking steel test results for US Navy subs’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59186655) and there is more where that came from, but consider the second part, consider the idea that the North Koreans (and Russians get a hold of that and a list of Los Angeles attack class submarines that have that steel? Now consider the play that could be made to get a submarine to a specific location and scuttle it ‘accidentally’ because the flaw was unknown. The story that some could write might keep the TV audience on the tip of their seat for the entire mini series, and the bulk of that work was already done. So as Netflix is trying to cut cost, here is an idea that they could use. But I think that they owe it to Fred Ward to have his picture somewhere (as an admiral) or as a father pic of the hero of that story, there are all kinds of ways where we can have a silent tip of the hat to a person who should not be forgotten like yesterdays news, but that applies to so many actors, I will be happy to admit that. When you know your games and consider Sir Alec Guinness as the CEO of Tri-Optimum, you know exactly what I mean. A simple setting of a series done in a few hours, Netflix get to work!

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The true setting

Yes, that is what we want, what we need. What is the true setting? We seek it, because (for the most) the media tends to give us a loaded canon, the question becomes for who they are loading their canons? This is seen with the BBC as they give us ‘Netflix cuts 150 US-based jobs after losing subscribers’ this headline is true, no one denies it and overall I wonder how many people left Netflix as they fired 1.2% of their workforce (150 out of 12,135). I can come up with all kinds of settings, yet we need to accept to some degree that Netflix will do what is best for Netflix, and that is not easy. Netflix has all kinds of issues. The first is that there is saturation in the streaming services. Netflix is apparently offering gaming services and become a competitor to Google and Amazon and as the BBC gives us “The redundancies, announced by the entertainment giant on Tuesday, will mainly affect its US office in California. They account for about 2% of its North American workforce.” This is fair, it amounts to a US workforce of 7500, so why did the BBC not give us that? We then see “In April, the streaming giant shocked the industry when it revealed it had lost 200,000 subscribers in the first three months of 2022, and warned another two million were expected to quit in the coming quarter. The news sparked an investor sell-off, with the firm’s stock plunging 35% in one day. It is now trading at $190 (£152), a 46% drop on its previous premium.” Now it is harder to say something about that. The stage of 2.2 million people is the setting of saturations and to some degree covid ending, or perhaps better stated, the people are expected to go back to work and there we see that Netflix is hurting the most, but not the only one. Covid endings will hit Disney, Hulu, Apple+ and others too. I see another problem, the fact that covid was ending was clearly visible, so the stage of “stock plunging 35% in one day. It is now trading at $190 (£152), a 46% drop on its previous premium” makes me wonder whether the suits of Netflix were wishful thinking or something. They are losing members, they are not correcting for 200K and 10 times that much in the coming quarter and the 35% drop implies an overreaction on one hand, or a lack of information on the other (BBC). This matters, because this knee jerk reactions from investors with their gaming enterprises will make it fail a lot faster than anyone expects. It is good news for Google and Amazon, yet there is the idea that it is not good news for gamers. You see the more game streamers there are, the more interesting it becomes for developers to sit don and seriously contemplate that dimension. Netflix would have been a decent third party. It is still possible with the other two, but three makes for a crowd and therefor for a larger interest by serious developers. That is how I see it.

So how will Netflix fare?
That is not easily seen and whatever I see makes it not truth, mere speculation and I am telling you that upfront. You see, no matter how I see it, how I interpret the knee jerk reaction by investors. There is every chance I might be wrong, and to some degree I do hope I am wrong. I have no idea how Netflix will be as a gaming solution, but a third player makes for more gamers and optionally for more embracing the streaming gaming solution. They do have options, or so we see. With “it’s looking at a cheaper, ad-based model and also planning on cracking down on password sharing which has cost it 100 million households.” We see two parts. The first is one, but one I personally would happily reject. The second one I have no issues with. The idea that 100,000,000 households share passwords implies that Netflix is losing over a billion a month. So they will need to evolve that system. At present I have no idea how, but there is always space for evolution.

So what will the future be for Netflix? I still believe that they can find all kinds of IP in the past, people forgot or merely ignored it and that is no different for movies and TV series. So saving costs in one directions does offer options in another and to be clear, there is an essential need for them to restore the loss of a billion plus. Beyond that? It will be anyones guess and a guess is as good as it gets for Netflix at present.

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Predicting Prospective Play

Yup, that happens and I broke the idea in the previous article, yet it does not take long until the MS-groupies have a go at me. Fair enough, I did set myself up as a target when I stated that Microsoft was a done deal, there is no deal because they are done. I reckon that they will be a shadow of what they are now by 2025-2028. They will lose ground, then they will lose support and after that the train goes off the rails. That is how I personally see it. But it is not about Microsoft. It is about gaming and in support of the previous article, there was one that had a decent statement. “It is not possible to make a map that big”. OK, it is his point of view and to some degree he was right. The PS4, Xbox One and the average PC cannot do it (at present). You see, in the next generation it will be possible and to some degree it is possible now. 

Land and its mass
In my example my game will be on an island and I am using the Indonesian islands as an example. So how is it possible today? Well, I could be clever, but someone beat me to it. Hello Games created the solution with ‘No Man’s Sky’. Even as they went in another direction by using parameters to create all these planets, but it is one direction. You see when you use the same parameters the planet will ALWAYS be the same. Now consider the parameters for the island and the more precise the parameters are the more precise the land becomes. And in this setting the IP of Hello Games becomes gold, literally game makers will pay through the nose to get this technology in that shape. The technology could be remade in the new setting, but it makes sense that Hello Games will set the technology up for sale, or for licensing. 

Now use that technology and look at the dozens of car navigators. You then get a navigator on a land that is virtual. The land stage is now close to complete, and most of the technology already exists, so the game makers can look towards massive maps in the streaming technology. 

Is it a tree?
The next IP is an idea I had, but it is depending on created IP (hence it cannot be mine), well perhaps you could (I am busy) because you might be able to get a patent that is “an improvement of an existing idea.” You see, in 1982 Adobe did something astounding, they created postscript. Even now 40 years later it is still close to perfect and unsurpassed, that is real innovation and they did a masterful job on this, there was one problem. It was slow, really slow when printing and over time Hewlett Packard created PCL, and it took HP 13 years to get to PCL6. It is good, but Postscript (by Adobe) was perfect. So where am I going with this? You see, the DNA of a tree is not small but is based on 12 chromosomes and 7 times more DNA. So what happens when someone figures out that setting to create a system that uses a hybrid version of PS and PCL to create the foundations of trees in gaming. It will (should) be the start of a concept that I like to call T2L (true to life), a setting that shows us an actual forest of unique or close to unique trees, no matter how large the terrain. I reckon that there will be some form of fractal idea embedded in that idea, but whomever works it out will have a new technology for gaming. And these two gives us the map and the forests, and more importantly, it will be identical EVERY time you load that game. A setting that people never considered, but streaming makes it possible and more important, it will allow for game maps based on actual maps and it allows for the beginning of a whole dimension of streaming games that have an entirely new point of view on what the size of a map in a game is. 

This does not solve all of it and even with all sails out, it still will take years to work out kinks and a few other parts, but we need to think and we need to focus on the games that will be made for release in 2024-2027, because that is when national 5G will be in decent abundance and whomever has the most original and most captivating game, will rule that market and by that time it will be well over $250,000,000,000 so consider where you want to be, replaying a game with the limits they had in 2012, or do you want to be on the edges of what is possible in 2025? 

Consider that during the next few days and see where you want to end up with your controller. I know where I want to be, in a console place no one has ever seen before.

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Residual seeking

Yes, what is it? Well it connects to the game I am designing. You see, Any RPG has its sides and it needs to change, it needs to be a lot less Bethesda (their games are not bad), yet I seek originality and this all connects to ‘The stage of commerce’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/02/25/the-stage-of-commerce/) where I give a lot more and in previous articles (seek and thee shall find) where I give more of all this. Yet there is a side I forgot about. You see, we all expect coin, we all expect funds. But what happens when money had no value in a place where they have no lemonade caps? Well, we will have to make a gander towards older times. In this we need to set steady steps towards other parts, but what if the few gold coins we find have more value by making it into something else? Gold and silver have their uses, especially in the arcane, but when do we see that in gaming? That is the 10th (might be 14th) altering thing that other RPG games are not giving you. So what happens when the chest holds a broken sword? Pieces of chain and two coins? There is a need for nearly anything, you just need to adjust your view and lets be honest, what was the last RPG game you played where it was not about gold, credits, or caps? Any place can grow on commerce, but the driving force of commerce is not always gold based. Many places had other means, even in ancient roman times, the soldiers were paid in salt. Salt was more valuable than coins in some places and a return to that opens a whole new set of gaming parameters. Then we have the fact that the broken sword can be remade as a knife, or could be melted into iron and iron (if enough is obtained) gets you a plough, which means more land and more food for a town. All settings to adjust the view of the gamer and to be honest, I cannot find one game offering this alternative view. 

As I wrote in that previous article “because of the random factors the rainbow tables are dynamic and that creates a whole new environment. One where the game can live without you and you become a contributor, not the driving force of anything.” This is important as your play style changes, the dynamic setting remains to some degree and that can push you in other directions. A stage where you optionally have an island that is an evolving stage as we start the island at 18,040 km2 (Halmahera), but there is nothing stopping us to upgrade the island down the track to 138,794 km2 (Java), there is something awfully satisfying to that. It evolves playing and makes it about the game you play, not WHERE you are. And lets be honest, if you could play a game again a year later and that place is 600% larger? Not go from one island to the other, but end up in a similar island a lot bigger and in that setting when you play the generations, what more can you find? It might not be needed as 18,040 km2 is huge, but the option opens a new frontier for RPG gaming and that is what we want, new frontiers and in that only streaming systems would be able to do this, and as I stated very recently, the streamers differentiate themselves or they will become trivialised. There is nothing interesting in playing the same Ubisoft game on these two systems. Yet what happens when AC Brotherhood suddenly has Spain and France added to the game? It becomes a different game, you as a gamer would have to make choices, because you could never see it all. You see, replayability becomes infinitely more important for streaming systems, and as such to prepare the next level of RPG games for such a setting is becoming more and more important. It was one of the truths I realised when I designed Elder Scrolls VII: Restoration. Evolution is where gaming is and the current makers are too much about selling the same cookie to all the other systems, all whilst some can only store cookies, the others are capable of storing a whole apple pie. And when you can have the apple pie, are you really looking out the window for the next cookie dealer? Fair enough if you are hoping for Shannon Elizabeth in a girl scout outfit, but what are the chances? 

Consider how far the Stadia and Luna can take you and then look at the failures of Ubisoft, what are you waiting for? Now, in their case I will make an exception for AC Origin and some might like to play the others again, I get that, but do you really want a Ferrari to get your groceries, or do you want to see what is 2365 km of your current location? How will you get there? You might never see it all, and that is fine too. A game that still has more to offer is a game you will play for a much longer time and there is also the rub. Ubisoft and others have made us completionists, yet how much of your own nation have you ACTUALLY seen? Are you really that driven in gaming, or can you see that the story is bigger than you. Can you see that beyond the main story, beyond all the quests there is just more and we will never see it all? That is perhaps the only real flaw that Bethesda has in its games and we all fell for it. In previous systems it was a natural flow of what a system could hold and we get that, but the newest consoles (PS5) and streamers have broken that limit, so we need to use the new settings to offer more gaming, different gaming and we need to throw repetition out of the window. That is merely my view on the matter, and it starts by creating a new mould, one based on historic parts, but still offers more than we have gamed before. It is possible, it is out there. Grab it and make it yours.

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Set Streaming Solution

Yes there are a few ways of doing this, but can we tell that anyone is right and the other one is wrong? That is actually a serious question, to go further, it is a lot more serious than anyone realises at present. You see Google and Amazon are taking different roads. 

Google
In February 2022 Will Nelson reported ‘Google Stadia focus reportedly shifted to licensing the streaming tech’ and of course there are interested parties there. And we were given “After launching in late 2019 the Google game streaming platform was met with some criticism regarding the quality of its streams, latency, and connection issues. After a slow roll out of major titles and news that the internal Stadia development studios would be shut down, all was looking lost for the game streaming platform.” This makes sense, but it is not a given, in addition we saw news that gamers had access to 50 games, whilst some sources claim that there are 200 games at present. The last one does not make sense to me. It does technically. There are all kinds of resource issues with streaming games and for the most they could be temporary, or merely in play until a full width of gamers is seen, it is better to open the tap a little further later on than finding out that the basement is now a swimming pool. All this makes sense to me, yet the gamers tend to lack patience. If you doubt that, ask Hello Games (No Man’s Sky) and CD Project Red (Cyberpunk 2077), they’ll tell you a few stories. But Google seems to go a path. 

Amazon
Amazon has another path, a more traditional gaming path with a reported number of games that surpass 80, a 60% limit above Google. For gamers this matters, and we need to realise that even as Amazon has a few other options to differentiate itself from Google, the question is will they? Then there is the number of games and kids will see two systems that can do pretty much the same, one has 50 games the other one 80. Which one do you think they chose? So yes Amazon has an advantage for now, but they have by their traditional approach a second one.

See the image, a gamer has to go from A to C, we assume that they will go via B, but Google shows us that they can get there via D as well. Now we get the tricky part. By focussing on licensing Google decided a path, in this we would assume that Amazon is more likely to be the success and I feel that this is correct. And here is where we need to realise that Amazon being a success, does not mean, or imply that the Google path will be a failure. Both can succeed and here we see the larger stage. Some designers will adhere to becoming a licensed technology owner, to set a larger path for THEIR game. This could be good, but for every version of Doom, we also see versions of Apex and Destiny, we see Battlefield 2042 and that list goes on a little longer, so how many failures will the Google Stadia house until it drowns the brand? I honestly do not know, but if you know gamers, you know what a fickle lot of hormones they can be and that is before we consider the new player Netflix, or whatever Tencent launches (I do not believe for one second that business decisions was a reason to stop), and with $200,000,000,000 on the line, Tencent remains a factor (for now). 

And all that whilst I gave articles where we see that the Amazon Luna has a lot more options and that is not including the 50,000,000 console solution (I gave hints in earlier articles). In all this I will see Netflix as an optional new player and I have written off Microsoft, they lost too much and they lost credibility with the gamers, it will take them years to overcome that and at that point Amazon will be the most likely new top 3 player in games town. Google is not disregarded, but with the path they chose, they are less likely to succeed, and that success will depend on the first half dozen AAA titles, if they remain absent, Google will no longer be a gamer or a player, but that cannot be decided now, it will take until December 2023 until we see that finalisation. There is a side in me wanting to tell others that Google is on the wrong path, but that is incorrect, the larger stage is that none of the others have decided to tae the path A,D,C, and that does not make it wrong. Even as I show it with a square, there is no clear information on the paths taken and whether one path is equal, longer, or shorter. Time will decide that and in that we will need to wait, but in case of marketing hypes, I will side with Amazon. Not because they are better, these two systems are a lot more on par than either is willing to admit to (that is how I personally see it), I saw several enhancements to the system that both can do, but with a licensing path Google is less likely to go there, then there are a few other paths and without development Google will also not go there. So Amazon has an advantage, will they take it? I cannot tell, I doubt anyone can tell for sure. But as I calculated it around 2 years ago, that market is close to $600,000,000 at nominal and that is a mere 0.3%, but with such numbers, do you know anyone ignoring such optional revenue? Especially when the system out now could run that solution? It is a mere thought that drives the solution, I wonder what is required to hold such greed to account.

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Is it news? Is it interesting?

Yes, that was the setting I saw today. The Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/may/12/lionel-messi-saudi-arabia-deal-tourism) gives us ‘Lionel Messi earned $122m last year. He still felt the need to take Saudi money’, well that is a first, when was that more news? And Saudi money might have an oily smell to it, but does that make it less acceptable? This is a world that is changing so fast that many feel (not entirely incorrectly) that more money becomes an essential sign. This is not about greed, this is about the cost of living taking a massive gander towards the unacceptably high. Yes, there are some ideas about when is enough enough. But even a person like Lionel Messi will need to cash in for as long as he can, because at some point, the well dries up and for football icons they tend to have decades ahead of them when that income well dries up. Lets be clear, they are all on massive incomes, yet they also have a larger spending spree due to social responsibilities, a side the media is always happy to remain silent about. So when I saw the article I went ‘Meh’, it is nice that someone has another income, in this case a Saudi tourist ambassador, but those are not that rare, are they. Many nations have one. In Australia a model got her fame with the line ‘Where the bloody hell are you?’ We all respond to different stages and settings and Lionel Messi got this one. As such when I see “Simply put, Messi has enough money that his future grandchildren won’t need to work a day in their lives. He could have politely declined the Saudi offer and still lived out a very comfortable retirement.” I wonder where Karim Zidan gets his point of view. The cost of living goes through the roof and I reckon that by 2025 a lot of people will desire such an extra income, if not they will not be able to afford basic living needs. Now we can accept that Lionel Messi is not in that stage yet, but the events in Europe (Ukraine) implies that Europe, the EU and the US are facing all kinds of hardships and if some plans go through, the US will face its own hardships. You see, it is not merely enough to have cash, you need to have a larger stage of friends who will be there when things go wrong. As such Lionel Messi made his choice and I do not believe it is a bad one. So whilst we are given “Messi has effectively aligned himself with a regime linked to countless human rights abuses, including the infamous assassination of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, its devastating war in Yemen that has caused a humanitarian catastrophe, and its crackdown on intellectuals, LGBTI+ people, reformers, and women’s rights activists.” We are not given a few items.

  1. Yemen was taken over by terrorists, terrorists supported by Iran, we do not see that here, why not?
  2. The crackdown sound hilarious. So hilarious in light of all the abortion laws under fire in the US, there we see “A leaked supreme court draft ruling shows the US is set to end 50 years of a woman’s right to choose” as such I wonder where human rights are, I reckon they do not exist in the hypocritical setting of feigned christian believes. There is even a setting that over the last millennium, Islam was constant, Christian faith nothing more as a political vessel for those who needed power and those relying on faith to keep them in power. From a christian point of view there are issues with the Arabian nations, but culturally? Misplaced honesty in history has shown a greed driven extermination in the middle east that started on 18 Nov 1095 (council of Clermont) and did not end until 1291 (Siege of Acre) and even as we were told one thing in schools, we were never informed on the greed driven powers behind the crusades, including the Vatican seat. 

There is a lot more, but you can find that in other articles I wrote. Are there issues? Yes, there are and there always will be, but the first step in opening dialogues and starting conversations. A person like Lionel Messi is such an optional enabler. So there is no real surprise when we are given “In Messi, the Saudi government has a premier athlete with a built-in audience and platform ready to be utilised for political gain. While Messi was once lauded for his humanitarian efforts with Unicef and his own charitable foundation, his recent alignment with Saudi raises concerns that he is willing to blatantly disregard human rights in exchange for lucrative deals with brutal dictators.” Yes, and we take a closer look at “he is willing to blatantly disregard human rights in exchange for lucrative deals with brutal dictators”, I wonder who is looking into the abortion issues in the US, the long lasting stage of inaction when it came to wealth in Luxembourg, or the inactions of Strasbourg when it came to a whole range of issues. And when we take a gander towards places like “Global Corruption Barometer EU: People worried about unchecked abuses of power”, we see that the media stays interestingly quiet, all making waves in one direction (rich people with planes) whilst the larger issue is ignored (147 facilities create 50% of all pollution) in at least two events (by the Guardian) the EEA report was muzzled and ignored. As I see it western logic is faltering and it keeps on faltering, too many ego’s and not enough common sense. We might consider that Messi is the only one showing common sense, but that would be too much, would it not?

Is Saudi Arabia perfect? No, it is not, but at present not many nations and almost non in the EU can make that claim. I reckon that New Zealand is the only one who can make the claim of being close to perfect and I am Australian. There are ways we work and ways we think, but it is not on others to copy our way of working, and the abortion issues in the US are clear evidence of that. The misrepresentation by the Vatican is evidence of that. It seems that we need to adjust our vision too and to a much larger degree, but in that I could be wrong.

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Time as a factor

There are a few issues, I could sum them all up, but that is actually counter productive. You see, time does not adhere to anything, it is the big brother of nature, it creeps up on you and just when you think you have time left, it pulls the rug from under you and you have run out of time. The first example is ‘Energy shortage warnings across US’ the source does not matter (they are too busy using news as advertisement tokens) but the news can be found all over the field. And it is not merely the US, the EU (a Dutch example was given by me this year), the UK as well as several other places. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, Russia and a few other players, most are running out of energy options. There is a solution and Elon Musk and his energy solutions are part of the solution, I even gave a limelight on ‘Darkness through inaction’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/10/10/darkness-through-inaction/) on October 10th 2021 and even more around June 2020 with ‘Musings’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/06/18/musings/) there was more before that. I know Time, I have seen its many sides so I do know what running out of means. I reckon Elon Musk and others too. Driven to the next milepost they give the world more and more, but the governments and the greedy wannabe’s are making deals to take a sliver of that pie, willing to sink whatever saves them, because living in poverty is worse than death, so they will do whatever they can to stop the process, but now the energy shortages are adding up. We are running out of time and we might merely have 2 summer seasons left where EVERYONE can afford energy, after that all bets are off. So when we see the BS jerking around COP26, when we realise that we cannot evade oil and petrochemical solutions for now we see that those trying to bring us solutions are getting hindered by those who want to be in charge of it all, because energy becomes the next currency. Feel free to doubt this, but Saudi Aramco is now worth $2.3 trillion dollars making it the richest corporation on the planet. In less than three weeks it grew 15%, you still think I am full of it? And the Ukrainian mess does not help, as the EU and others refuse and ban Russian oil and gas, their situation bites more. A setting that was out in the open before the Russian situation started and it was out in the open. We merely ran out of time faster and I reckon that if the media does not openly expose those hindering some solutions are not given the limelight they deserve you will learn the hard way how expensive 2023-2024 will get. As I grew up I saw prices rise, but I never considered that essential needs like power, heating and food would become unaffordable. Time learned me that lesson the hard way. No matter how we look, we cannot see all elements coming for us and I like many (unless I sell my IP) will see heating, food, and electricity needs and like many others I will only be able to pay for two of them, so what will become out of reach for me? I cannot tell, it will be a roll of the dice.

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The bird and the cat

Yes, who has not heard of that setting, Tweety and the cat Sylvester, in real life duplicated by Twitter and fat cat Elon Musk. And in that setting most people will group behind the little budgie, yet is that a correct step? Reuters gives us ‘Musk says $44 bln Twitter deal on hold over fake account data’, the article (at https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-says-44-billion-twitter-deal-hold-2022-05-13/) gives us “Musk, the world’s richest person, decided to waive due diligence when he agreed to buy Twitter on April 25, in an effort to get the San Francisco-based company to accept his “best and final offer.” This could make it harder for him to argue that Twitter somehow misled him.” I have an issue here. Face accounts in Twitter have been the setting of conversation in many nations. 

Trolls, click farms, and many fake accounts, all thee to give people false impressions, to fake that some care about issues no one cares about and to create flames. The problem is that Twitter is (or should) be aware of this. The element that is overlooked is engagement, Some looked into a similar setting in Facebook and it seems nice that one can buy clicks, but when someone in Utah sees that they get 150,000 clicks and 65% are all in Sri Lanka (or some other vague location), who does it serve? The one buying the clicks, and the one facilitating the clicks and it has evolved in an actual economy. So when I see “This could make it harder for him to argue that Twitter somehow misled him”, I wonder just how delusional they are at Twitter. There is a larger need to have two books, one with all the numbers and one filtering for expected fake accounts and it is not some small issue, the numbers are deep in the double digits at present, and as far as I can tell, Twitter and its CEO Parag Agrawal should know better. And now that we see “The estimated number of spam accounts on the microblogging site has held steady below 5% since 2013, according to regulatory filings from Twitter, prompting some analysts to question why Musk was raising it now. “This 5% metric has been out for some time. He clearly would have already seen it … So it may well be more part of the strategy to lower the price,” said Susannah Streeter, an analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.” In this I wonder what (and how much) Susannah Streeter is getting paid for that view? I personally reckon that it has not been as low as 5% since 2 October 2018, when that columnist that no one gives a fuck about went missing, you know the one. And since the events Covid (2019) and The Russian invasion in Ukraine (2022) we are confronted with an even larger explosion of fake accounts. So when I see “The estimated number of spam accounts on the microblogging site has held steady below 5% since 2013”, my slightly less diplomatic view will be “Give me a fucking break please”. 

If there is one side where Parag Agrawal failed it will be to set a more realistic side to finding and creating a clear marker for fake accounts. Now, I get it, it will not be a simple setting, but I think we can agree that even Mother Goose will not tell the children in Digital Sleepy Town that 5% is realistic, no one is THAT delusional.

So when we see “prompting some analysts to question why Musk was raising it now”, the answer is rather simple, the analysts should have raised it themselves at any time since 2018 and who did? I reckon that list is rather short, perhaps non-existent.

So as some are willing to blame fat cat Sylvester, there are plenty of indications that Twitter is hiding behind some granny knowing that it was wrong from the very beginning. 

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Restoring Redacted Recognisance

I have been in a bit of a trance, wondering on a few items that were nagging me, that is until I saw some flamboyant article. The article is a little too Simpson tainted to be taken seriously, but there was a grain of possibility there. My What if procedures started to crush the options. It did not make me happy, because for the most, I hate the ‘What If’ statement, it is something in second grade salespeople and telemarketers. As such I tend to avoid using it, but in this case there is almost no avoiding it. In a stage where there is an optional stage of revenue that could be anywhere between $400,000,000 and $17,500,000,000 the players Amazon and Google stay away? In the first it is more tailored to Amazon, but the stages include 5G, as such Google would be equally chomping at the bit.
Now the stage is about to move to Saudi Arabia, and I do not object. In two settings they have an advantage over the other two, but that is only in two of the settings. So I was puzzled, but then a few items from LA Times to UK papers hit me and the ‘What If’ setting came back. 

What If
So what if Google and Amazon just no longer have the manpower and the seniority to see what is about to escape them, it seemed so far fetched, but there was supporting evidence (of a sort) and there is no way in hell I would let Microsoft anywhere near it, I would accept a 35% payment from Saudi Arabia before I would consider a 175% from Microsoft, I am that disappointed and angry with them. And as I refocus towards Saudi Arabia I see a larger stage, one that could fir them taking a larger stake in either Amazon Luna or the Google Stadia, even as the Amazon Luna is a better fit, either will do and that solution alone should be worth well over $350,000,000, as such there is some benefit in having one buyer. Of course the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia might see that different, but that is not a given and as they get more options to diversification.

So we have an alternative stage, but the idea that the resources and brainpower of both Amazon and Google had dwindled to that degree is a little baffling. This has nothing to do with Covid. It has nothing to do with abilities. It dwindles down to two powerhouses, not taking a much better inventory of what is possible and letting it slip again and again until it is too late. Could that be the case? To be honest, I cannot tell, in the first because Sundar Pichai and Andy Jassy did not call me updating me on their HR woe’s and sorrows (and I never expect them to do that). So I am in the dark, but some others should not be and we have not heard from them have we? 

So what gives? Why would either player ignore that much revenue after getting hit to such a degree? It does not make sense, but that was before we see that they face a lot of grievance in the UK, EU and US. The Republicans are willing to slice Disney whilst destroying up to 60,000 small business owners with the attacks on Disney and their IP, Google has a few issues of their own to deal with, so a holding pattern is not the weirdest idea, but in this case revenue could go to China, Saudi Arabia and other players, how does that help any of them in the US, EU or UK? And that is before someone takes a hard look at Canada, with the top 10 of wealth being occupied by banks, but that is the hidden trap, without powerful businesses these banks will falter, time has shown that again and again, so what will be left when the redaction of recognisance is takin its toll? Restoration is the one path left, but that is a window with a limited timespan, I wonder if the UK and Canada realise that there is a point of no return and the US waited too long and now when there is a stage of restoration, the republican party is having a go at one of the most powerful IP holder in history, Disney. A setting that can have only one ending and it is not a good one, as such when Disney loses its protection, the cheap solution bringers in India and China will bring their options cheaper, not better but cheaper and all whilst well over 40,000 small business owners are left with nothing, because the IP kept their business safe and that is about to change, so when that happens and other resources do not grasp the business, what do you think will happen to that $25,000,000,000,000 debt? The interest alone will pull the entire US economy under with absolutely no options to restore any option to breathe. A setting I saw coming a mile away 5 years ago when there was an option, so when the US also losses its IP and more important the two powerhouses that create IP because they no longer have resources, what happens then? 

There is no what if setting here, we can just watch it unfold and I will be watching as well, because to be honest, I never expected these two players to have the IP resource lack they are currently showing. I honestly was caught be surprise (you see, it is possible to surprise me).

I wonder what Sunday brings, a hail Mary and a ZX Spectrum?

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Iconification

I have been involved in a program named Hubspot. It is a little big (well over a 1300 variables) so there will always be data gaps. Now, this is not necessarily a bad thing, data gaps happen everywhere, it is how we manage them that matters. But it is not about the data gaps. As I was working yesterday, I saw another missing part. You see, there is an overwhelming need for a better level of intelligence, especially in marketing applications. This has been a fact for years and for the most people think of it as cloak and dagger stuff, but they would be wrong. Intelligence in commerce is essential, they refer to it as Business Intelligence. But over the last 10 years the term no longer applies the way it once did. The umbrella is too large and as such it no longer fits the purpose. Like Military Intelligence it now has a few umbrella’s. They are 

GEOINT
Geographical Intelligence is a much larger field in commerce. For example, there is IBM who has the information of millions of global corporations. They can see where Unilever has activities in Europe, Asia and Africa. As such they can push new more made to measure solutions for a player like Unilever making them a nice fortune in the process. And none of this is ‘under the table’ it is up and out in front. A setting of where they all can go and where they all can unite profit margins. A player like Unilever might be the most visible one but they are not alone. Tech players, governments the EU as a whole, they get a much better serve because of the applied solutions that GEOINT has in commerce.

DIGINT

Digital Intelligence is pretty new, in military sides it is often part of open intelligence channels. In commerce it is still growing, they use the channels different, they seperate all sources (Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn) these are the largest three but they are not alone. It is also the part that has the most issues. Fake identities, fake processes and fake information make DIGINT an essential part, but a more artistic hand is required. The golden rule of ‘Trust but verify’ is at the heart of this. The problem is two fold, not all intelligence is intentional, sometimes it is a simple miscommunication that starts it. But finding the golden strings tend to lead to options and that is why they are more and more essential. They could point to the person no other way would have revealed, if only one source had the proper name, the proper place and the proper event it worked out well, but that is the problem we do not always get all the puzzle pieces and we think we are creating an image. Yet what happens when the puzzle is kinetic? What happens when the puzzle is not an image but a 20 second movie looping non-stop until the puzzle is complete? It takes a different skill and that skill will be required by governments and by commerce on a global scale, especially when all commerce is trying to complete as much revenue as possible.

OSINT

Open Source Intelligence is a collection of all matters, it is the least trusted, but it is the collection of mails, letters and all kinds of information, here the source is the important part and vetting the source matters to all concerned. It could be an internal person who thinks fondly of IBM, has friends at IBM, and that matters. 

All these elements come together in marketing and now I notice that a place like Hubspot (et al) will need some kind of dashboard, not one dashboard, but numerous dashboards that can collect and display snippets of notes, call notes, response notes that can be used and combined to give new clarity on any client, no matter where they are. And the local intelligence analyst will need to make sense of it all, make sense of hundreds of warm calls, cold calls and other information to see where a larger gain can be made and in commerce that matters. I wonder if Palantir will connect to Hubspot, or if Hubspot will create its own intelligence dashboard system, but I feel decently certain that one of the two will happen, the way commerce is moving makes it close to impossible to ignore that part of commerce revenue.

 

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