October 4, 2024 · 21:11

Accepted doubt

This is on my, or better stated my view on matters. In this case it is the Reuters article ‘Exclusive:  Kushner has discussed U.S.-Saudi diplomacy with Saudi crown prince’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/kushner-has-discussed-us-saudi-diplomacy-with-saudi-crown-prince-2024-10-04/) which was released less than 30 minutes ago. I have had serious doubt on the media on a near global stage and at this moment Reuters has gained several points towards doubt. Yet, in this case I am willing to put doubt on my ability to see things clearly. 

So, lets take a look.

“The news that Kushner and Saudi Arabia’s de-facto leader discussed a peace accord”, here we see the statement “de-facto leader”, we know that Saudi Arabia still has a king, but what stops Reuters to state “The news that Kushner and Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud discussed a peace accord”, both are in principle correct. Yet the Reuters statement comes across as Saudi bashing. ‘To put a person in its place’ might be the interpretation as many would see it, especially in the Middle East. Then we get “renew questions about whether Kushner’s financial ties with Riyadh could influence U.S. policy under his father-in-law”, so what is the issue here? It is a serious question because the article does not give us a complete report on what those ties are, we get a link to the Hill, there we see ““crossed the line of ethics” by accepting a $2 billion investment from the Saudi government in his private investment firm six months after he left the White House” my question in this is were laws broken? You see, the investment was done AFTER he left the White House. So were laws broken, or were they not. 

Then we get “To encourage Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel, the Biden administration has offered Riyadh security guarantees, assistance with a civilian nuclear program and a renewed push for a Palestinian state. The deal could reshape the Middle East by uniting two long-time foes and binding the world’s biggest oil exporter to Washington at a time when China is making inroads in the region” How come that China is diminished with “when China is making inroads in the region” and what is this about “assistance with a civilian nuclear program”. My issue is that China has been making inroads for the better part of two years. As such making inroads, comes across as a joke, massively inaccurate. So why was the civilian nuclear program added? Could be true, could be anything. But the media at present has a massive credibility issue and whilst space on a webpage is nearly free, Reuters is a little stingy on using it.

Last we get to “The Saudi relationship with Trump was notably close. Trump’s first foreign trip as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, accompanied by Kushner. After Saudi expatriate opposition journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Trump stood by the crown prince in spite of a U.S. intelligence assessment that he had authorised the killing. MbS denied involvement.” Is filled with inaccuracies. No clear evidence has been produced that Khashoggi was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Turkey, there was an assumption and the setting that “U.S. intelligence assessment that he had authorised the killing” is even more inaccurate. The document A/HRC/41/CRP.1 which was given to the world by the Human Rights Council does not give us that either. In that report U.S. Intelligence is mentioned twice. In one case we are given “The Directive states that if a U.S. intelligence agency “acquires credible and specific information indicating an impending threat of intentional killing, serious bodily injury, or kidnapping,” that agency has a duty to warn the intended victim.” No mention of authorisation or anything regarding an order by Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. I am adding that document at the bottom. As such I have issues with the Reuters article. 

There is more but read the article yourself. The article hands us a pice of evidence that Reuters is losing credibility. 

I am not a Trump fan, but at present there is a larger stage and the Biden administration of fumbling the ball, and as issues go at present, China will be a large bigger inroad in the Middle East (Saud Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) in 2025 and I have to wonder how much inroad they will make in Egypt in 2025.

But I hope that the message comes across. And in the second stage, what laws did Kushner break? Because in the end that is what matters. 

Have a great day

a_hrc_41_crp.1Download

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October 3, 2024 · 21:35

When books are more

That was the setting I saw myself in this morning. As you (optionally) read this morning, I had given a walk down on a piece of IP by Meta, with the reference to stories more then two years old on my view on what is now the Orion with references to tourism advertising and a few settings towards creating awareness. But whilst I was writing that setting, I thought of another stage. The stage that reverts by to books. 

Consider the TV series I, Claudius. A drama that is the best drama ever written. Now I had the ‘initial’ version released in the 80’s, now it’s a Penguin title. The nice part of Penguin is that it is cheap. But my mind took it to a new direction and with augmented reality it is possible. Consider the story (which plays in ancient Rome) but now add augmented reality and at that point we have access to artwork like the statues of the old Romans like Augustus (Brian Blessed), Tiberius (George Baker), Caligula (John Hurt), Sejanus (Patrick Steward) and many more. Not the actors (or optionally included), but the art work, the statues, the places like the Colosseum, the royal palace and many more places that we might have seen. Draw the reader in with the art and references of how those people likely looked with ‘A.I.’ as the sculptures are drawn the the living version of these people. The stage is never ending. We could enable a much larger realm that some books give us. I, Claudius might show us how that world might have looked. Even as there are still issues to be resolved (Meta does little for free), but the sights could open a much larger world and Orion could bring that to the living room of anyone who has an Orion, the spectacle that brings a spectacle to the living room (to coin a phrase). 

I for one would like a little more spice with some of my books. It is OK if this title has these views added to a new version (like a limited edition), but the art still needs to be initially created. And there is no reason that these works of art cannot be accessible by the Orion glasses. Especially if one grows the tourism stage with these places and items. Consider if you are at the Colosseum, you put on your glasses, or see though your mobile art and stages of places at the simple connections? Wouldn’t that be great? I took this example as this is the best series the BBC ever created. But in my writing of ‘The opportunity for 2022’ on February 1st 2022, I used the option of Monte Carlo, through QR codes the people saw a much larger stage using a mobile. There is no reason that the Orion glasses couldn’t be used. I reckon that these glasses paired with your mobile wouldn’t do the trick too (a lot more comfortable) and with that we see the new tier of these glasses as it fuels tourism. Seeing the augmented reality of the winner William Grover-Williams driving his Bugatti Type 35B on 14 April 1929 on the track (which in Monte Carlo still exists), it gives the people more then they had and now we are literally off to the races. Augmented Reality is merely constraint by the limitation of the creative thinker and Meta removed several borders. That is the larger stage we need to embrace. I get that some people will state that there is enough tourism there. But the early bird will gain access to the revenue worms that are out there. Like the malls they need to push borders to engage the people and the malls are now feeling the pressure to create engagement and you merely need to see the amount of people who attended the malls in 2019 versus 2024 to see that places like Eaton centre mall (Toronto) and Dubai Mall (Dubai) have lost visitors (Dubai not that much) but the keep on top of matters is done by offering people more then before. That has always been proven (again and again).

America had 116,000 malls and there is no real list where I could read the numbers. But the Dubai Mall has a good amount of visitors. Now the top three malls in Dubai are the Dubai Mall, the mall of the emirates and Nakheel mall. Still there is (or soon will be) the Dubai Hills Mall. So how will you keep people engaged? By offering more and optionally something that the others do no have, as such there is apace and place for augmented reality and I saw that years ago. Now that Meta has the Orion there will be space and a place for growing that market. Funny, this was out in the open for years and both Google and Amazon were both asleep at the wheel. Now Meta has a new realm to grow a few markets and could end up being the game changer in certain fields.

Have a great day and for the Vancouverians out there, nothing will happen at 21:21 in the evening. I just learned that. I love my time based jokes, like photo bombing, it is an acquired guilty pleasure.

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October 3, 2024 · 08:41

As history catches up

On the first of February 2022 I wrote ‘The opportunity for 2022’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/02/01/the-opportunity-for-2022/) where I set a stage for augmented reality, at a later stage I also set it for glasses and windows (an actual window pane) and with that I started a thought process that could revitalise malls on a global scale. I initially covered tourism, but soon thereafter I covered commerce, advertising and awareness creation. The focus for me was the Eaton centre (Toronto) as it was a clear case of awareness improvement. There were a few other sides for mobiles, but this stage was explored by my mind and last week I was given a jolt of energy as Meta (at https://about.fb.com/news/2024/09/introducing-orion-our-first-true-augmented-reality-glasses/) gives us the Orion, previously codenamed Project Nazare, as I kind of envisioned it. I thought that Google and/or Amazon would have picked it up, but no, it was Meta. So as I see it Meta now has a clear advantage over advertising and a new realm of awareness creation. So whilst Amazon and Google were cutting staff, cutting all kinds of enablements Meta now has more than the inside track. They can whisk advantages in advertisement, tourism, awareness creation and a few other directions. This is what sets them apart from the wannabe innovators. And I left all the evidence all over the internet, as such I can truthfully see myself as an innovator. As I see it, the one part not grabbed by Meta is the mobile layer where they can grab the attention of jewellers on a global scale. I am not merely talking about the small players, I am talking about Pandora, Harry Winston, the Swiss Richemont Group, Bernard Arnault and his LVMH scoundrels (as the expression goes) and a few other players. They all become very willing players in this realm. A stage that wan’t open to many of us, now becomes a new stage of revitalisation. And the malls need them and as such Meta gets to surpass Google with YouTube and Amazon with whatever they have. I actually didn’t think to be this ahead, I was in some believe that this was 5-10 years away. History catches up with me. Oh, and I was thinking also a bigger picture. You see this could work well for publishers and book shops as well. As the jeweller has its domain, the domain of books could equally profit from augmented reality. 

Meta already has the skills to put in place the technology to set the domain for advertisements and with that the malls could revitalise soon enough. For me it is another moment of bliss. Whilst several people made claims that I was nuts, the technology now exists to make larger parts of my ‘delusion’ a reality. I feel awesome, those shouting I was a nutcase have just exposed themselves to be nothing more than wannabe’s with a lack of creativity. 

And later today I will add another story, it will be all about books. Well one in particularly. Have a great day.

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October 2, 2024 · 07:57

Greed and stupidity, aligned and enhanced

That is the trouble at times. When captains of ‘industry’ push for legal ‘solutions’ as they seemingly fall short of investor expectations. Well that is how I see it and the Herald Sun (at https://www.heraldsun.com/news/business/article293290914.html) hands you this with ‘Cary’s Epic Games sues Google again. Here’s what the new lawsuit claims.’ In this alignment we are given “As a federal judge weighs what corrective steps Google must take to remove barriers surrounding its Play Store, Cary’s Epic Games has accused the internet search giant of finding a new unlawful way to protect its Android app store monopoly.” I wonder how non-intelligent the connected judge is. You see the Play-store needs more protection, not less. When we are given “create an obstacle for Android owners to use third-party app stores like the Epic Games Store. Epic Games’ latest lawsuit focuses on a Samsung program called Auto Blocker, which stops users from downloading apps from sources other than the Google Play Store or Samsung Galaxy Store.” The danger is that ANY third party app store raises the danger of hackers and/or organised crime to get access to our mobile devices. And I will not allow ANY non-Google player to access my device. In addition, the judge is seen as the culprit if there isn’t a clear message that any play store can be prosecuted for transgressions on our mobile devices and sued for damages to our digital person as well as prosecuted of for data transgressions. This is what I saw coming when I wrote Epic downfall on November 12th 2021 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/11/12/epic-downfall/), when I wrote “I reckon that first issues will emerge within 3 months of the alternative to ApplePay path and it will not take long until lawyers will suit up for class actions all worth billions. Epic will need a lot more lawyers soon enough and it will cost them. It could constitute the dangers (for Epic) that 2021 started the downfall that could have been avoided, a setting they caused themselves and the greedy hackers saw a clear new target, Epic Games with a bullseye. A bullseye that will be painted on their CEO and CFO, what a wild web we tend to weave.” And now Epic goes on suing more (or better stated in other directions). There is a massive call of holding Epic Games accountable for what comes next, will the judge take that into account. All the people that Epic Games endangered for allowing this danger to reach over 800,000,000 devices? I guess not, but then we now have a picture as given in the Durham Herald Sun, so when your device is hacked due to these proceedings, I suggest to look him up and demand an explanation in person. 

Have a great day.

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October 1, 2024 · 19:11

Two words

I saw an article by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj31lpvnzl3o) where we are given ‘Netflix fails to get Baby Reindeer lawsuit dropped’ where we are given “The show, created by Richard Gadd, is billed as “a true story”, but certain key events, like the conviction for stalking, did not happen in real life, the judge concluded.” As we look at the ‘facts’ I got the idea that Netflix has a few more problems then they were ready for. Were they really ready for cutting the workforce? In 2023 we were given “The streaming giant said it was cutting 300 more jobs – roughly 4% of its workforce – mostly in the US, after axing 150 people in May” I wonder if one person was made redundant when that person could have given us the same solution that I had in mind and it would have saved them a court case. Instead of handing the viewer “a true story” when two words made the difference through “based on a true story” the word based hands the amounts of alleged inaccuracies towards creative writing and possibly makes the court case  thrown out and the defamation lawsuit falls flat. Now, I could be wrong here, but that I how I see it. In the meantime Netflix will optionally have a larger issue. When defamation becomes proven you will see dozens of involved people go over every movie that Netflix had on their channel for 2-5 years. Leave it to people to see their greed driven pupils draw attention towards that what could leave them loaded with cash. Perhaps a little skeptical, but that is where I am. You see if I could come up with the two words that could save Netflix a defamation case? Why didn’t Netflix come up with that.  But there is more, the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/sep/30/fiona-harvey-baby-reindeer-defamation-lawsuit-richard-gadd-netflix) gives us “the show was wrongly billed as a “true story” when Netflix “made no effort” to fact check Gadd’s story or disguise Harvey as the inspiration for Martha”. You see the fact check is another matter. I think that my suggestion could have prevented the case, but the fact check is another matter. I believe that any script writer could be ‘blamed’ for creative writing to give space towards super shrinking the alleged defamation case, but that is merely my point of view. So, what happens at Netflix? That is the question but that should require a lot more consideration on the structure of Netflix. To this part I raise the fact checking and the optional allotment of two words. And there  might be more issues in the weeds. For this I would need a lot more knowledge in the inner working of Netflix and my script(s) are meant for Dubai Media and the SBA (Al Arabiya in particular). So whilst the Guardian gives us “US district judge Gary Klausner noted that because the show’s episodes begin with the line “This is a true story”, it invited viewers to take the story as fact.” As such they didn’t need two more words, they merely needed to change the first two words and that was not done. As I see it, if I interpret the words by US district judge Gary Klausner correctly, my change would negate his observation, or so I believe.

How much would I have saved Netflix, and to be brazen, can I have a slice of that? It might be easier to ask Sergey Brin for $11,000,000 post taxation and a Canadian passport, but I don’t have his phone number. You see, even I am drawn in towards optional cash, but it doesn’t control me or make me greed driven. That is merely the smaller (and optionally more desperate) cluster of people.

Have a great day. We are all on the Wednesday clock. From Vancouver in the East through to Wellington in the west. 

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September 30, 2024 · 11:48

Co inky dink

Yup, my previous article on comic films preceded a BBC article. Or perhaps better stated I saw the article after I wrote my article. As coincidences, go a nice one. The BBC article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6er83ene6o) gives us ‘Hollywood’s big boom has gone bust’, I have some issues here. The first is seen with “the good times ground to a halt in May 2023, when Hollywood’s writers went on strike” I resent the implied status that this was up to the writers going on strike. And as we are given both “The actor and aerial cinematographer turned his hobby of flying drones into a profitable business in 2012 just as the streaming wars were taking off. For a decade, he was flying high above film sets, creating sleek aerial shots for movies and TV shows on Netflix, Amazon and Disney” and “But rather than roaring back, in the one year since the strikes ended, production has fizzled.” This story isn’t giving us the goods. You see there are a few elements. One is saturation of business. First there was Netflix, and not we have in addition Disney plus, Hulu, Paramount, YouTube TV, Sling, Fubo and Amazon prime. Several more to follow but these are the better ones. What was one is now eight and it doesn’t end there, there are all kinds of digital boxes who keep tabs on it all. The problem is that income levels are still the same as they were in December 2019, pretty much in synch with the first Covid setting. In 5 years most incomes are either the same or ridiculously close to that and in the meantime the cost of living has gone through the roof. Housing has been raised in many places by as much as 50%, that is hundreds of dollars a week. Food has risen by about 5% per year. There is the larger set that most people can at best afford 1 digital channel (if at all), as such all eight channels competed for the same customer at the same time. As such it isn’t merely that production fizzled, or that projects were cancelled. There is a dwindling population that cannot even afford one channel. And to relate that to the present, Disney projected it would spend between $8 billion-$9 billion on content for its premiere streaming service. Now see that investment all whilst less people could afford that TV channel. This isn’t merely America, this is a global problem. Hollywood has relied on the old Roman principle “Give the people bread and games” and now the people cannot afford the games and more and more of them are falling short for buying bread and this is happening all over the world. So whilst we get “Projects have been cancelled and production was cut across the city as jobs have dried up, with layoffs at many studios – most recently at Paramount. It had a second round of layoffs this week, as the storied movie company moves to cut 15% of its workforce ahead of a merger with the production company Skydance.” We see that there is a lull in the setting of projects and the attainment that people are in the mindset of “things will go better soon” but that is not the case. America and Europe wasted at least two years on their ego all whilst the ‘customers’ who had the cash have vacated to China. I saw this happen two years ago, which is why I created a script that could entertain the Muslim population. And I was right that SBA (Saudi Broadcasting Authority) and Dubai media are growing like crazy, all whilst the American players are merging and buying each other out. I saw the same happen in the IT in the early 90’s with a Dutch company called Infotheek. On the edge of bankruptcy, they bought the smaller players and take that revenue as your own. It didn’t work then, I doubt it will work now. And in that light America has a second problem. Many players will divert to Canada as it could be an option. Many actors and actresses are Canadian, so that works for some. Vancouver is a new powerhouse in this and the more the capture the smaller the American pie becomes. As such the article is right, Hollywood big boom has gone bust, as could be the case for Hollywood fairly soon. And there lies the problem, an over bubbled industry, A premise of channels that ned to invest billions, all whilst there is doubt that the revenue in 2026 could have diminished by 20% (at least), as such who gets the money? Then in the past 300% on investment was achievable, soon it will merely be between break even and perhaps 50%, so how many investors will leap the fence to optionally Arabic channels? I made it clear in 2020 that you cannot bite the hand that feeds you, but did the American defense industry listen? Nope and now the Chinese defense industry reports a growth of 25% year-on-year. That is money that is not going to America and now the streaming channels are optionally seeing a similar move towards Arabic nations and India. So how long until the boom turns into a gap that implodes implodes? 

All things that have been out in the open, but the BBC overlooked it. It is a good story and it gives some of the goods, but it overlooked the attached factors and these are a lot more disastrous. Well, that’s it for now. It is almost lunch time for me, have a great morning wherever you are.

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September 29, 2024 · 22:58

For desert we have this

The second part is lighter, a lot lighter. I saw a video on YouTube a mere hour ago, it is an abandoned movie, namely the Jetsons.

I remember the comic books and I loved the Jetsons. Now I see that a Panasonic version was abandoned. Why? And that is when the thought occurred that in the age of Unreal Engine 5 and what some call AI, this movie (or series) could be done without actors. All set in a ‘futuristic’ stage.

And as we realise that these abandoned projects could be given life in new ways and that could be done for a whole range of comic books and old cartoons. Considering that the streamers need all kind of projects and they are running more and more quickly out of ideas. I am amazed that this hasn’t been handed a larger thought by all kind of streamers. 

And with the three simple ideas above, there are hundreds of comic books that could optionally be done in the same way. Some of them were never turned into a cartoon and as such it could offer the graphic designers a new age of creativity, not to mention those works who lost their makers as well as a host of IP rights. I wonder why no one gave that any serious thought. You see, the cartoon world is so much larger then Marvel and DC Comics. For the first 20 years I saw almost no Marvel and in the DC world only Batman (from 1967). As such, I tend to wonder why a player like Netflix let that option slip by. 

So graphic designers. What are you waiting for. There is a whole pool of options out in the open. Spread your wings and seek your fortune.

Have a great day.

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September 29, 2024 · 22:23

The first stage in a setting

This is the first of two, the second is of a much lighter sense, as such I am leaving this for desert. The first one (this one) is heavy and will offend a whole lot of people. I have stated this opinion before, but that stage got back in my mind after I saw this article (at https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-crown-prince-personally-doesnt-care-palestine-issue) where we are given ‘Saudi crown prince said he personally ‘doesn’t care’ about Palestinian issue’, it sounds nice. We are then given “Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that he does not personally care about what he referred to as the “Palestinian issue”, according to a report in The Atlantic.” I do Care and as the foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia (Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud) tells us “Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat on Thursday announced the launch of a new initiative to establish a Palestinian state and garner support for the implementation of a two-state solution after decades of international efforts failed, leading the region to the brink of an all-out war”, which several sources told us including Al-Arabiya (at https://english.alarabiya.net/News/saudi-arabia/2024/09/27/saudi-arabia-announces-new-global-coalition-to-establish-palestinian-state).

My view is that I have nothing against the establishment of Palestine, but it does urgently require the eradication of Hamas. Hamas is a hate only party and sooner or later they will abide by the ‘requests’ of Iran and hit Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran wants to be at the head of the table, or they will ensure that no one will sit there and destabilisation continues. That time has passed and Iran still depends on Houthi and Hamas to bring their point across in the most violent way possible. Now that Hezbollah has been carved into pieces by Israel, Houthi terrorists will think twice on continuing on a path where they ‘assist’ Iran in any way possible. And sooner or later (probably sooner) Iran will find a way for Palestinians or Yemeni’s to find a low paying jobs just to throw wherever they are (in the KSA or UAE) to foul things up. In simple ways that will demand long term repairs or even reconstructing parts that were already done and soon (either Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates) will through ‘anonymous’ sources to get a larger seat for Iran at the table. This is not speculation, it is presumption based on the actions of Iran over the last 20 years. And as such The eradication of Hamas is a given need. When they fall away Iran has merely Yemen to fall back onto and that stops Iran (for now) in its tracks. As Yemen (read Houthi terrorists) sees what damage Israel did to Hezbollah and Hamas next, they will choose a non-violent path, especially when Iran stops taking their calls. 

I believe that there are options especially as Iran loses the two terrorist allies they have. I don’t think it will be the end of it, but I believe that stability in the middle east is essential to a better world and too many power players think that destabilisation is key to their wealth. That needs to stop. I know that it is merely my view and many will state that I am wrong, but as I see it, there are too many people having blind faith in Iran turning a page to a better future, all whilst this path has been walked by administrations for 3 decades. It is time to call it quits. We need solutions there and they need to be made by the right people. Oh, and for those that think that this isn’t essential. Remember that Hamas on 7 October 2023 initiated a sudden attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip. As part of the attack, 364 individuals, mostly civilians, were killed and many more wounded at the Supernova Sukkot Gathering, an open-air music festival during the Jewish holiday of Shemini Atzeret near kibbutz Re’im and they took 40 people hostage. As far as we know from those 40 hostages, 14 of the hostages are still being held captive. That has been the focal point for Israel. And the setting that we see with the ‘proclaimed’ 40,000 deaths and it was clear months ago that Israel stated ‘Let our people go’ that is what Hamas pushed for and now that Hezbollah has lost pretty much the complete top of their structure (pager by pager) Iran is worried and so should Hamas be. I get that Saudi Arabia wants to stand by Muslims and that is something a lot of people understand, but it does require the eradication of Hamas. Hamas did this to themselves on October 7th 2023. Saudi Arabia (as well as the UAE) need to focus on stability for the middle east and in this case I count Egypt as a middle eastern player. Egypt will be important to Saudi Arabia down the line with 5G advancements as well as the fact that 111 million Egyptians are a great goal for the Saudi Broadcasting Authority, they could largely increase their visibility, moreover, it would allow Egypt to broadcast to Muslims in Spain, France, Italy and Greece. And from there, optionally to more nations in Europe. But that is merely my insight lacking view on the matter. OK, it has a personal view. As more islamic people get connected to streaming TV and streaming solutions, my script ‘How to assassinate a politician’ might actually be released at some point (my ego tends to seek solutions too).

It is almost Monday now. So have a great day and you will hopefully enjoy this Sunday.

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September 28, 2024 · 22:22

How I fall short

That is the stage, that is the setting. I do not know everything (too boring anyways) and even as I see how things develop and are optionally staged. The fact that I do not know everything gets in the way of some things. Now, I know very little about oil. It is a commodity everyone needs, it is a commodity only some countries have and the two biggest players in that field are Aramco and ADNOC, oil is black and it is needed for the production of petroleum. That’s about all I know. The current price is about $68 dollars per barrel. So when I saw ‘Oil price drops, and BP and Shell shares slide, as Saudi Arabia ‘prepares to abandon $100 crude target’’ I didn’t think too much of it. The story comes from the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/sep/26/european-reconstruction-bank-cuts-growth-forecasts-energy-ukraine-elon-musk-uk-investment-summit), there were more sources, but I am handing you this one. We get “Saudi Arabia is reportedly ready to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 a barrel for crude as it prepares to increase output” yet Oil&Gas journal gives us “Saudi Arabia is preparing to abandon its informal target of $100/bbl for crude oil as it plans to increase production, signalling the kingdom’s acceptance of a period of lower prices and intentions to take back market share, according to sources cited by the Financial Times”, now in my book the shortage of one commodity means prices go up. I do understand that any player will protect market share, as such I get the increase of product to protect your market share. That makes sense. And as such we see Saudi Arabia deciding an increase for about 1 million barrels per day as per December 2024. There are a few players on this field and I like the idea that the increase will make sure that Russia has less customers to get it from Russia is not happy. And as several media are giving us the goods, there is no other way for me than to agree with the setting. In overall there is still a larger concern I have. Oil is a commodity with a finite supply, so how much supply is there? I believe that the middle east has the bulk of it, but the finite session gives us the dangerous setting that at some point, the three countries with supply will be Russia, Iran and Venezuela. That is not a setting I want to wake up to, although at present it is highly unlikely that I will be around the morning we get that piece of news. In the meantime there is a larger issue at stake. How will Aramco increase its creation of oil with an additional 159,000,000 litres of that black fluid. You see everyone is looking at the end result and no one is looking at the how. What is required to that level of increase? I feel certain that it will require a lot more than one pump. It is the increase of 10% (near to that) and comes from 300 rigs. The simpleton in me sees this as an additional 30 rigs. It takes 18 months to five years to commission a rig, the construction timeline for an oil rig can vary significantly depending on several factors and that is if the oil comes from rigs. Saudi Arabia has one hundred oil and gas fields, so if it comes from there, other means are needed. The largest oil field is the Ghawar field. So how can you increase the production there? And is that the only place? We are so desperate for oil that the basic security is overlooked and there is at present Iran, Houthi forces and a few others who are very willing to hurt Saudi Arabia. So what more is needed, because when by November that increase is realised, some will take offence to this and that problem will possibly create all kinds of new problems. And we do not see enough information on that side of the equation.

And advice from me? Nope, I know next to nothing on that topic. I can merely see hurdles and optionally a personal belief that I see options, but that is not what the actual expert on the topic has. And the media? Solutions do not make their digital wallet fat, flames do that and in that view it is not a good idea to put flames close to oil, a mere personal view on the matter.

Have a great weekend.

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September 28, 2024 · 00:09

The partial view that is seen

This partial view comes from the BBC. When I looked at the article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz04depp2nro) the headline gave us ‘Can diplomacy bring Middle East ceasefire? Early signs don’t bode well’ it was the second part of the headline that woke me up. We are given “What they meant was they saw getting an agreement from key European countries and Arab states, led by Washington, as a big diplomatic achievement during the current explosive escalation. But this was world powers calling for a ceasefire – not a ceasefire itself.” It holds part of the problem I see. We also get “The statement urges both Israel and Hezbollah to stop fighting now, using a 21-day truce, “to provide space” for further mediated talks. It then urges a diplomatic settlement consistent with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – adopted to end the last Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, which was never properly implemented. It also calls for agreement on the stalled Gaza ceasefire deal.” The first part that got to me was “United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – adopted to end the last Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, which was never properly implemented” There were ‘signals’ that were seemingly ignored. “It was unanimously approved by the United Nations Security Council on 11 August 2006. The Lebanese cabinet unanimously approved the resolution on 12 August 2006. On the same day, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that his militia would honor the call for a ceasefire. He also said that once the Israeli offensive stops, Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on Israel would stop. On 13 August the Israeli Cabinet voted 24–0 in favour of the resolution, with one abstention. The ceasefire began on Monday, 14 August 2006 at 8 AM local time, after increased attacks by both sides.” Now we ‘see’ the message that the resolution (1701) was never properly implemented. It has been basically 18 years. So what wasn’t properly implemented? Why do we see this now after 18 years? My issue is that there are a number of issues, and there are more players than Israel and Hezbollah/Hamas involved. The journalists taking a back seat to whatever digital dollars they are trying to get. The second are the politicians, both the involved and those connected. So why did we not see the repeated messages (via the media) to state who is was lacking in implementation and why?

So there is more than the early signs. As I personally see it there is a lack of follow up in these cases. 

We then get “intensive diplomacy led by Washington has failed to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas, with the US currently blaming a lack of “political will” by Hamas and Israel. Meanwhile, the US has continued to arm Israel. That doesn’t inspire confidence that Washington and its allies can now strong-arm Israel and Hezbollah into a quick truce, especially given the fighting on the ground, the intensity of Israel’s air strikes and last week’s explosive pager attacks on Hezbollah, which has continued to fire into Israel.” The part that I do not agree with is “a lack of “political will” by Hamas and Israel.” My issue is that (possibly) both players here have seen a massive lack of commitment from several sides. The very first is given through “United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – adopted to end the last Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, which was never properly implemented” I cannot tell who dropped the ball first, or which players lacked in their ‘commitments’ but there were players who failed (optionally merely Hezbollah and/or Israel), the simple setting taking us back 18 years as well as the fact that nowadays media (this last decade) is more driven to chase digital dollars then the news. That gives doubt to how far this thing goes. And it goes beyond the Lebanese borders. The setting that exists with Gaza is still evolving. The US administration, as well as the EU have been playing these settings fast and loose is a dangerous setting and these players are no longer regarded as reliable. That becomes the ball game. Mediation only works when the mediator or mediators are no longer trusted, no ceasefire will ever work. 

It is my speculation, one I had for many years is, that the EU and the USA have been playing a dangerous game, optionally staged towards ‘a one step tactic from destabilisation’ and in this the games that Iran is playing do not help and now that it all goes to (assumed) shit, no amount of ceasefire prays will offer any decent insight into any resolution. So the ‘early signs don’t bode well’ is to be expected. That is clear, is it not? 

If you wonder what can be done I am, like many others at a loss for words or advice. The problem is that too many player have had their own agenda in mind. That is less speculation, more presumption. In this I call for the first piece of evidence “United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – adopted to end the last Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, which was never properly implemented” and the evidence is that in 1982 I worked for the United Nations Security Council, and they have failed to keep the audience (as far as I know) properly informed for 18 years? So what good were they? I understand that they do not inform the audience, but they do report, usually governments, and this gets to the media one way or another. As such I see a massive failure in play. And you wonder why either Israel or Hezbollah has issues with either (or both) America and the EU? I wonder if this setting is not better served by mediation through a joined council of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and USA. The USA is essential to get Israel on board. I doubt that they will accept merely the other three parties but that is merely my speculation in this.

So as I just sailed into the night of Saturday, have a great day and as Vancouver is trailing us by 17 hours. I can report to them that nothing is happening at 00:03. Have a great day, wherever you are.

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