Tag Archives: Amazon

December 18, 2025 · 23:58

The wrong focus

Two messages passed me by today. The first one was given to us by CNBC (at https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/12/17/oracle-stock-blue-owl-michigan-data-center.html) with the headline ‘Oracle stock dips 5% as Blue Owl Capital pulls out of funding $10 billion data center’ and I wonder why the headline wasn’t ‘Blue Owl Capital pulls out of funding $10 billion data center’ with the optional added “the project remains “on schedule” but that Blue Owl was out of funding talks.” And as we see “Blue Owl had been in talks with Oracle about funding a 1-gigawatt facility for OpenAI in Saline Township, Michigan, according to the Financial Times.” And when we see “the plans fell through due to concerns about Oracle’s rising debt levels and extensive artificial intelligence spending, the FT reported, citing people familiar with the matter. This comes as some investors raise red flags about the funding behind the rush to build ever more data centers. The concern is that some hyperscalers are turning to private equity markets rather than funding the buildings themselves, and entering into lease agreements that could prove risky.” I am wondering why the focus is Oracle and not Blue Owl Capital. Even as others give us ‘Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Is Down 7.1% After Liquidity And BDC-Merger Lawsuits Surface – What’s Changed’ (at https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/diversified-financials/nyse-owl/blue-owl-capital/news/blue-owl-capital-owl-is-down-71-after-liquidity-and-bdc-merg/amp) with “Blue Owl Capital has faced multiple securities class action lawsuits alleging that it misled investors about liquidity pressures tied to redemptions and the planned merger of its business development companies, following weaker-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results and contentious merger terms for OBDC II shareholders.” As well as “Beyond the legal claims, the controversy has highlighted how liquidity constraints, redemption limits, and potential valuation “haircuts” inside key private credit vehicles can affect confidence in Blue Owl’s broader fee-based asset management model.” So the setting could be “Oracle dips because Capital Asset Management cannot get their settings right” it is a speculative statement, but it does hold water in light of what we are shown, so why CNBC focusses on Oracle and not on Blue Owl Capital is beyond me. Is it because kicking a true innovator is more sexy than a Capital Asset Management player? I feel slightly protective of real innovators and as far as I can tell Oracle has been a power for innovation for over 45 years (yes I am that old).

So when we see “Blue Owl Capital’s narrative projects $4.2 billion revenue and $5.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 17.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $5.0 billion earnings increase from $75.4 million today.” And there is the real culprit, players like Blue Owl need to make money and the entire setting for what they call ‘AI’ will not show revenue for over 2 years and that is what is hampering these players (as I personally see it).

So when we see “The person added that Blue Owl was also concerned that local politics in Michigan would cause construction delays. Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks.” I reckon that Blue Owl will move out of at least one other project, as such some players need to step up and it goes without saying that these ‘money makers’ will see stretch marks in their projected revenue womb and it will be a nasty setting for those that are relying on profit per quarter and that was the setting I foresaw almost a year ago and a setting that will bare scrutiny because there are trillions invested and some makers of money will start to realise that as they aren’t making enough money for their shareholders, they will become nervous and as I see it, Google has the inside track now and those relying on OpenAI and Sam Altman will start to see their revenue falter, it is no longer a one player game and that is before we consider where Huawei is going in all this. 

The second article ‘Amazon Set to Waste $10 Billion on OpenAI’ (at https://247wallst.com/technology-3/2025/12/17/amazon-set-to-waste-10-billion-on-openai/) the question becomes. Is it really wasted? We see the first setting “OpenAI, which until recently has been the leading artificial intelligence (AI) company in the world, has raised money from a long list of investors. Some are venture capitalists who are simply writing checks to get returns. However, another list consists of money or strategic deals with Microsoft, Oracle, Softbank, Nvidia, and, soon, Disney.” This part raises a question “Some are venture capitalists who are simply writing checks to get returns” the question is part of a timeline. When they get the money is another part of this equation and time is  the factor that holds these money loving parties in check, or not as the timeline shifts towards 2028/2029. So as we consider “Bloomberg reports, “OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer’s effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp.” Amazon is a tiny player in the AI chip business. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) dominates, with a market cap of $4.33 trillion, which makes it the most valuable company in the world. Put plainly, the Amazon deal is part of the dangerous “round tripping” that goes on in the industry. One company invests in another. The company that gets the investment uses the money to buy products or services from the investor.” I see something else. Whilst we get that $4.33 trillion is an important part, the larger setting is becoming “Amazon deal is part of the dangerous “round tripping” that goes on in the industry” this implies that “a company selling “an unused asset to another company, while at the same time agreeing to buy back the same or similar assets at about the same price.”” I see it as double dipping, so we have now (apparently ) arrived to the point where the double dipping is greedily seen on 10 billion, whist the invested setting is over 900 times larger. I personally see that as a new venue towards the bottom of the creamy barrel that everyone wants to dip their wallet in, the setting is spend and the money is gone (or at least locked into a set stage of non-revenue) and that is the second setting I see breaking the economic settings apart in 2026, because this will erupt into something a lot less nice long before we reach 2027 and that is close to 2 years ahead of incoming revenue. Do you still think I am boasting? This is not a boast. It is disappointment, because that setting was clear to me almost a year ago when I wrote ‘And the bubble said ‘Bang’’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/29/and-the-bubble-said-bang/) So I saw this coming a mile away and the others were in the dark? I am not that intelligent, I am pretty clever sop these high paid economists should have see this long before me, or were they hoping that THIS time they could outsmart others? Greed is a vicious circle and will only propagate further greed a game without winners and all who play it lose, or they sell others down the river to get their goods. So how did that end in 2008? The movie Inside Job has a few markers, but who ended the game with a full purse tended to be awfully little and they wasted trillions on that idea and now we get a setting more intense and with more money at play all whilst the previous setting is still hurting a lot of people. Now, the impact will be a lot more dangerous with too many people relying on the setting others give whilst not giving them the full story. How does that usually go over?

A stage that could sink America as I see it, but perhaps I am just a radical depressed individual. Have a great day you all. My Friday begins in less than 5 minutes.

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December 9, 2025 · 17:10

The increased revenue setting

That is what we look for and I found another setting in something called Airport technology. You see, we see ‘King Salman International Airport, Saudi Arabia’  (at https://www.airport-technology.com/projects/king-salman-international-airport-saudi-arabia/) and the facts are clear. An airport that covers about 57km², positioning it among the largest airports by footprint and is said to “KSIA is expected to handle up to 120 million travelers by 2030, and up to 185 million passengers and 3.5 million tonnes of cargo by 2050” But I saw more. You see, on the 26th of September I wrote ‘That one idea’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/09/26/that-one-idea/) where I saw the presentation of an Near Intelligent Parsing (NIP) thought that could revolutionise lost and found settings in airports, on railway stations and a few other places, the instant winners of this idea would be Dubai International, Abu Dhabi international, London Heathrow and several other places and now also King Salman International Airport (KSIA), I would make some alterations to it all. In stead of entering it all, use PDA’s to records the data as it happens and when it is all entered use what they use in Australian hospitals for wristbands, print that data and attack it to whatever is found. If this is properly done, it will be done in mere minutes and within an hour people can look for the items, they could pick it up on the way back, in some cases it could be delivered to their hotel. This would be customer service of a much higher degree. And as I see it, the five airports (namely King Khalid International Airport, King Abdulaziz International Airport, King Salman International Airport,  Dubai International Airport and Zayed International Airport) could become the frontrunner to make an Near Intelligent Parsing (NIP) solution (not calling a solution based on DML/LLM AI) that could be the next solution for airports al over the world and there is some personal gratification to see America talk about how great their AI solutions are, whilst the little guy in Australia found a solution and hands it over to either Saudi Arabia or the UAE. A solution that was out there in the open and players like Microsoft (Google and Amazon too) merely left it laying on the floor and the elements were clearly there, so I hand it over to these two hungry places with the need to see what it can offer for them and in this it isn’t mine. It was presented by Roger Garcia (from Interworks) and the printing setting is already out there. Merely the joining of two solutions and they are done. So as I see it, another folly for Microsoft (honestly Google and Amazon too). This setting could have been seen by a larger number of players and they all seemingly fell asleep on the job. But if I know what Saudi’s and Emirati’s do when they see something that will work for them. They get really active. And so they should.

And consider that these airports will cater to close to half a billion travelers annually, and as such they will need a much better solution than whatever they at present have and there is the setting for Interworks. And when these solutions set the station towards delivering what was lost, the quality scores will go skywards and that is the second setting where the west is bottoming out. One presentation set the option from grind to red carpet walking. A setting overlooked by those captains of industry.

Good work guys!

So whilst I start preparing for the next IP thought I am having there is still some space to counter the US and its flaming EU critique. Let us remind America that the EU was the collection of ideas from America retail who were tired of dealing with all those currencies and in the late 80’s AMERICANS decided to sell the Euro to Europeans, all because they couldn’t sort out their currency software (or currency logistics) and now that it starts working against them they cry like little girls. Go cry me a river. In the meantime I will put ideas worth multiple millions online and let it fly for the revenue hungry salespeople (and consultants). In this case it wasn’t my idea, I merely adjusted an idea from Interworks and slapped some IP (owned by others) to make a more robust solution. I merely hope to positively charge my karma for when it matters.

Have a great day, except Vancouver, they are still somewhere yesterday.

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November 27, 2025 · 04:39

The sound of war hammers

It is a specific sound, nothing compares to that and it isn’t entirely fictional. Some might remember the Walter Hill movie Streets of Fire (1984) where two men slug it out with hammers, but that is not it. When a Warhammer slams into metal armor, the armor becomes a drum and that sound is heard all over the battlefield (the wearer of that armour hears a lot more than that sound) but is distinct and I reckon that some of those hammer wielders would have created some kind of crescendo on these knights. So that was ‘ringing’ in my ears when NPR gave us ‘Here’s why concerns about an AI bubble are bigger than ever’ a few days ago (at https://www.npr.org/2025/11/23/nx-s1-5615410/ai-bubble-nvidia-openai-revenue-bust-data-centers) and what will you know. They made the same mistake, but we’ll get to that.

The article reads quite nicely and Bobby Allyn did a good job (beside the one miss) but lets get to the starting blocks. It starts with “A frothy time for Huang, to be sure, which makes it all the more understandable why his first statement to investors on a recent earnings call was an attempt to deflate bubble fears. “There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” he told shareholders. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.”” So then we get three different names all giving ‘their’ point of view with ““The idea that we’re going to have a demand problem five years from now, to me, seems quite absurd,” said prominent Silicon Valley investor Ben Horowitz, adding: “if you look at demand and supply and what’s going on and multiples against growth, it doesn’t look like a bubble at all to me.” Appearing on CNBC, JPMorgan Chase executive Mary Callahan Erdoes said calling the amount of money rushing into AI right now a bubble is “a crazy concept,” declaring that “we are on the precipice of a major, major revolution in a way that companies operate.” Yet a look under the hood of what’s really going on right now in the AI industry is enough to deliver serious doubt, said Paul Kedrosky, a venture capitalist who is now a research fellow at MIT’s Institute for the Digital Economy.” All three names give a nice ‘presentation’ to appease the rumblings within an investor setting. Ben Horowitz, Mary Callahan Erdoes and Paul Kedrosky are seemingly mindset on raking in whatever they can and then the fourth shines a light on this (not in the way he intended) we see “Take OpenAI, the ChatGPT maker that set off the AI race in late 2022. Its CEO Sam Altman has said the company is making $20 billion in revenue a year, and it plans to spend $1.4 trillion on data centers over the next eight years. That growth, of course, would rely on ever-ballooning sales from more and more people and businesses purchasing its AI services.” Did you see the setting. He is making 20 billion and investing $1.4 trillion, now that represents a larger slice and the 20 billion is likely to make more (perhaps even 100 billion a year. And now the sides of hammers are slamming into armour. That still will take 14 years to break even and does anyone have any idea how long 14 years is and I reckon that $1.4 trillion represents (at 4.5%) implies that the interest is $63,000,000,000. That is almost the a year of revenue and that is the hopefully glare if he is making 100 billion a year. So what gives with this, because at some point investors make the setting that the formula is off. There is no tax deductibility. That is money that is due, the banks will get their dividend and whomever thinks that all this goes at zero percent is ludicrously asleep and that is before the missing element comes out. 

So then in comes Daron Acemoglu with “A growing body of research indicates most firms are not seeing chatbots affect their bottom lines, and just 3% of people pay for AI, according to one analysis. “These models are being hyped up, and we’re investing more than we should,” said Daron Acemoglu, an economist at MIT, who was awarded the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.” He comes at this from another angle and gives us that we are investing more than we should. All these firms are seeing the pot at the end of the rainbow, but there is the hidden snag, we learned early in life that the rainbow is the result of sunlight on rainwater and it is always curves t be ‘just’ beyond the horizon and it never hits the ground and there will be no pot of gold at the end of it according to Lucky the Leprechaun (I have his fax number) but that was not the side I am aiming for, but it gives the idiocy we see at present. They are all investing too much into something that does not yet exist, but that is beside the point. There are massive options for DML and LLM solutions, but do you think that this is worth trillions? It follows when we get to “Nonetheless, Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft are set to collectively sink around $400 billion on AI this year, mostly for funding data centers. Some of the companies are set to devote about 50% of their current cash flow to data center construction.

Or to put it another way: every iPhone user on earth would have to pay more than $250 to pay for that amount of spending. “That’s not going to happen,” Kedrosky said.” This comes from Paul Kedrosky, a venture capitalist who is now a research fellow at MIT’s Institute for the Digital Economy, and he is right. But that too is not the angle I am going for. But there are two voices, both in their field of vision, something they know and they are seeing the edges of what cannot be contained, one even got a Nobel Memorial Prize for his efforts (past accomplishment) And I reckon all these howling bitches want their government to ‘safe’ them when the bough breaks on these waves. So Andy Jassy, Sundar Pichai, Mark Zuckerberg and Satya Nadella (Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft) will expect the tax system to bail them out and there is no real danger to them, they might get fired but they’ll survive this. Andy Jassy is as far as I know the poorest of the lot and he has 500 million, so he will survive in whatever place he has. But that is the danger. The investors and the taxpayers (you and me) get to suffer from this greed filled frenzy. 

But then we get “Analyst Gil Luria of the D.A. Davidson investment firm, who has been tracking Big Tech’s data center boom, said some of the financial maneuvers Silicon Valley is making are structured to keep the appearance of debt off of balance sheets, using what’s known as “special purpose vehicles.””, as well as “The tech firm makes an investment in the data center, outside investors put up most of the cash, then the special purpose vehicle borrows money to buy the chips that are inside the data centers. The tech company gets the benefit of the increased computing capacity but it doesn’t weigh down the company’s balance sheet with debt.” And here we get another failure. It is the failure of the current administration that does not adapt the tax laws to shore up whatever they have for whatever no one has and that is the larger stakeholder in this. We get this in an example in the article stating “Blue Owl Capital and Meta for a data center in Louisiana”, this is only part of the equation. You see, they are ’spreading the love’ around because that is the ‘safe’ setting and they know what comes next. You see the Verge gave us ‘Nvidia says some AI GPUs are ‘sold out,’ grows data center business by $10B in just three months’ (at https://www.theverge.com/tech/824111/nvidia-q3-2026-earnings-data-center-revenue) and that is the first part of the equation. What do you think will power all this? That is the angle I am holding onto. All these data centers will need energy and they will take it away from the people like you and me. And only 4 hours ago we see ‘Nvidia plays down Google chip threat concerns’ and it is all about the AI race, which is as I said non-existent, but the energy required to field these hundreds of thousands of GPU’s is and no one is making a table of what is required to fuel these data centers because it is not on ‘their plate’ but the need for energy becomes real and really soon too. We do not have the surplus to take care of this and when places like Texas give us “Electricity demand is also going up, with much of it concentrated in Texas due to “data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities,”” with the added “Driving the rise in wholesale prices next year is primarily a projected 45% increase at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas-North pricing hub. “Natural gas prices tend to be the biggest determinant of power prices,” the EIA said. “But in 2026, the increase in power prices in ERCOT tends to reflect large hourly spikes in the summer months due to high demand combined with relatively low supply in this region.”” Now this is not true for the whole world, but we see here a “projected 45% increase” and that is for 2026. So where are these data centers, what are their energy surpluses and what is to come? No one is looking at that, but when any data centre is hit with a brownout, or a partial and temporary drop in voltage in an electrical power supply. When that happens any data centre shuts down, energy is adamant for all its GPU’s and their better not we any issue with energy and I saw this a year ago, so why isn’t the media looking into this? I saw one article that that question was not answered and the media just shoved it aside, but as I see it, it should be on the forefront of any media setting. It will happen and the people will suffer, but as I see it (and mentioned) is that the media is whoring for digital dollars and they need their advertisement money from these 4 places and a few more, all ready for advertisement attention and the media plays ball because they want their digital dollars (as I personally see it).

So whilst the NPR article is quite nice, the one element missing is what makes this bubble rear its ugly head, because too many want their coins for their effort and it is what is required. But what does the audience require? And the audience is you an me dear reader. I have set a lot of my requirements to energy falling short, but there is only so much I can do and it is going to be 32 degrees (celsius) today, so what happens when the energy slows down for 5.56 million people in Sydney? Because the Data centers will make a first demand from their energy providers or they will slap a lawsuit worth billions on that energy provider. And we the people (wherever we are) are facing what comes next. Keeping data centers cool and powered whilst we the people boil in our own homes. As such that is the future I am predicting and people think I am wrong, but did they make the calculation of what these data centers require? Are they seeing the energy shortfalls that are impeding these data centers? And the energy providers will take the money and the contracts because it won’t coexist to this, but that is exactly what we are facing in the short run and the investors? Well, I don’t really care about them, they invested and if you aren’t willing to lose it all with a mere card to help you through (card below), you aren’t a real investor, you are merely playing it safe and in that world there are no bubbles.

Remind me, how did that end in 2008? The speculated cost were set to $16 trillion in U.S. household wealth, and this bubble is significantly larger than the 2008 one and this time they are going all in on money, most of them do not have. So that is what is coming and my fears do not matter, but the setting that NPR gives us all with ‘Here’s why concerns about an AI bubble are bigger than ever’ matters and that is what I see coming.

So have a great day and never trust one source, always verify what you read through other sources. That part was shown to be when we all see (from various sources) that “The United States is on track to lose $12.5 billion in international travel spending this year” whilst my calculations made it between 80 and 130 billion and some laughed at my predictions a few months earlier and I get that. I would laugh too when those ‘economics’ state one amount and I come with a number over 700% larger. I get that, but now (apparently) there is an Oxford economics report that gives us “Damning report says U.S. tourism faces $64 billion blow as Trump administration’s trade wars drive away foreign visitors and cut spending”, so I have that to chase down now, but it shows that my numbers were mostly spot on, at least a lot better than whatever those economics are giving you. So never trust merely one source even if they believe to be on the right track. But that is enough about that and consider why some bubble settings are underexposed and when you see that the NPR gave you three additional angles and missed mine (likely not intentional) consider what those investment firms are overseeing (likely intentional) because the setting that they are willing to lose 100% is ludicrous, they have settings for that and as the government bailed them out the last time, they think it will save them this time too.

Have a great day today, I need an ice cream at 4:30 in the morning. I still have some, so yay me.

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November 19, 2025 · 16:47

I lost my marbles

Like Poodles, I seem to have misplaced my marbles. AKA I lost them completely. Now only 9 hours ago I shouted that I am sick of the AI bubble, but a few minutes ago I got called back into that fray. You see, I was woken up by an image.

This is the image and it gives us ‘Oracle’s $300bn OpenAI deal is now valued at minus $74bn’ there is no way this is happening. You see, I have clearly stated that the bubble is coming. But in this, Oracle has a set state of technologies it is contributing. As such, where is the bubble blowing up in the face of OpenAI and Microsoft? In this, the Financial Times (at https://www.ft.com/content/064bbca0-1cb2-45ab-85f4-25fdfc318d89) is giving us ‘Oracle is already underwater on its ‘astonishing’ $300bn OpenAI deal’. So where is the damager to the other two? We are given “OK, yes, it’s a gross simplification to just look at market cap. But equivalents to Oracle shares are little changed over the same period (Nasdaq Composite, Microsoft, Dow Jones US Software Index), so the $60bn loss figure is not entirely wrong. Oracle’s “astonishing quarter” really has cost it nearly as much as one General Motors, or two Kraft Heinz. Investor unease stems from Big Red betting a debt-financed data farm on OpenAI, as MainFT reported last week. We’ve nothing much to add to that report other than the below charts showing how much Oracle has, in effect, become OpenAI’s US public market proxy:” There might be some loss on Oracle (if that happens) and later on we were given (after a stack of graphics, see the story for that) “But Oracle is not the only laggard. Broadcom and Amazon are both down following OpenAI deal news, while Nvidia’s barely changed since its investment agreement in September. Without a share price lift, what’s the point? A combined trillion dollars of AI capex might look like commitment, but investment fashions are fickle.” And in this, I still have doubts on the reporting side of things. From my own feelings (not hard core numbers) that Oracle and Amazon are the best players to survive this as their technology is solid. When AI does come, they are likely the only two to set it right and the entire article goes out of its way to mention Microsoft. But in all this Microsoft has made significant investments in OpenAI and has rights to OpenAI’s Intellectual Property (IP). This comes down to Microsoft holding a stake in OpenAI’s for-profit arm, OpenAI Group PBC, valued at approximately $135 billion, which represents about 27% of the company. So how is Microsoft not mentioned? 

As such how come Oracle is underwater? Is it testing scuba gear? And if the article is indeed true, what is the value of OpenAI now? Because that will also drown the 27% of it (holding the name Microsoft) and that image is missing from that equation. If this is the bubble bursting, which might be true (a year before I predicted it) then it stands to rights that this is also impacting Amazon, Google, IBM, Microsoft and OpenAI. As such this article seems a little far fetched, a little immature and largely premature by now naming all the players in this game. I personally thought that Oracle would be one of the winners in all of this, or better stated a smallest loser in this multi trillion bubble.

So what gives?
And in this I might be incorrect and largely missing the point, but a write-off to the amount of nearly half a trillion dollars has more underwriters and mentioning merely Oracle is a little far fetched, no matter how fashionable they all seem to be and for that matter as Microsoft has been ‘advocating’ their copilot program, how deep are they in? Because the Oracle write-off will be squarely in the face of that Nadella dude. As he seemingly already missed the builder.ai setting, this might be the one ending his career and whatever comes next might want to commit suicide instead of accepting whatever promotion is coming his way. (I know it is a dark setting) but the image is a little disconcerting at present. And the images that the Financial Times give us, like the Hyperscaler capex, show Microsoft to be 3 times in deeper water than Oracle is, so why aren’t they mentioned in the text? And in those same images Amazon are in way over their heads and that is merely the beginning of a bubble going sideways on everyone. As such, is this a storm in a cup of water? If that is so, why is Oracle underwater? And there is ample reason to see me as a non-economist, I never was on wanted to be one. But the media as gives raises questions. And I agree, Oracle is on a long way to break even, but if they do not, neither are Amazon, Microsoft and OpenAi and that part is seemingly missing too. If anything, Larry Ellison could pay the shortcomings with his petty cash (he allegedly has 250,000 million) that is how own die and the others won’t even come near that amount. 

So whilst we wait for someone to make sense of this all, we need to walk carefully and not panic, because these settings tend to be the stage where the panicky people sell what they can for dimes to the dollar and that is not how I want to see players like Microsoft jump that shark. This is not any kind of anti-Microsoft deal, it is them calling the others not innovative whilst there isn’t a innovative bone in that cadaver. So whilst we want to call the cards. The only thing I do is calling the cards of the Financial Times and likewise reporting media calling out the missing settings of loss towards Microsoft and OpenAI. It is the best I can do, I know an economic major who could easily do that, but he is busy running Canada at the moment.

Have a great day and I apologize for causing an optional panic, which was not my intention.

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November 11, 2025 · 17:58

TYS squared

That is the setting, but before we go there, a little reminder from past blogs. Just so you know I wasn’t kidding. On January 29th I wrote ‘And the bubble said ‘Bang’’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/29/and-the-bubble-said-bang/) as well as ‘What do bubbles do?’ on November 1st 2025 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/11/01/what-do-bubbles-do/), so this is not out of the blue. Yet several facts were revealed which requires me to give you the setting of power shortages which I raised in ‘As limits are reached’ on June 29th 2024 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/06/29/as-limits-are-reached/), so this are the settings I warned people about and now we see

So, it started today with a person named Torben Hansen on LinkedIn giving us “Oracle just shelved a €2 billion Al datacenter project. Amazon paused €7 billion in investments. Not because of tech limitations or lack of capital – but because they can’t get electricity. In Frankfurt – Europe’s digital heartland – new Al data centers face 8-13 year wait times for grid connections. Here’s the brutal reality:” as well as “Germany’s electricity: €0.25-0.30/kWh vs €0.05-0.07 in Asia (3-6x more expensive) GPT-4 training consumed 51,773+ MWh of energy One datacenter powering Al needs 4 gigawatts
Additional cost per training run: €500M+
Germany’s Al ranking: Dropped from #3 to #9 globally in 2 years
Imagine having world-class talent, billions in investment, and world-leading research – then telling companies “sorry, we don’t have the power lines.” That’s Germany in 2025.
While the US adds 400+ MW of Al capacity annually, Germany accepts ZERO new data centers until 2030. The result? Our brightest minds migrate. Research stays. Jobs leave.”

So, the ‘presentation’ reflects what I foretold. But now the sad part, there is no news on any of this. There is even a ‘Google set to reveal “largest ever” investment plan for Germany – report’ a mere 4 days ago (at https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/google-set-to-reveal-largest-ever-investment-plan-for-germany-report/) this is why I check EVERYTHING. The setting from both Amazon and Oracle cannot be vetted, but a mere 4 days ago (as well) we are given “But Oracle stock is now trading down around 25% from its 52-week high as investors grow critical of artificial intelligence (AI) spending. Oracle is not alone. Last week, Meta Platforms sold off because investors didn’t like how its operating expenses were outpacing revenue growth.” That too was predicted and it is the effect of a bubble, so to say the stock is going bubblelicious. But that does not reflect on who is giving us the facts and who is giving us the runaround. I am trying to give you the facts. The second fact that seems to ‘contradict’ the ‘facts’ by Torben Hansen as the DCD gives us (at previous given address) “Amazon Web Services (AWS), meanwhile, committed some $9.44bn to its Frankfurt cloud region in June 2024, and a further $8.47bn to establishing a European sovereign cloud in the country, which was launched as a separate entity earlier this year.” So something is amiss. I still believe in the predictions I gave you all, but a bubble tends to be presented at the moment it goes boom. Yet a week ago (at https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/lacking-grid-access-major-obstacle-germanys-energy-transition-technologies-associations) we are given ‘Lacking grid access major obstacle for Germany’s energy transition technologies – associations’ with “Germany needs to “significantly improve access to grid connections” for electric vehicle charging stations, storage facilities and large heat pumps, a group of 13 associations from the energy, housing and consumer protection sectors said in a joint appeal. “Industry, commerce and private households are ready to invest, build and transform,” the group wrote. “But without access to a modern grid infrastructure, many projects remain unimplemented.”” As well as “Germany’s lagging electricity grid expansion remains a key hurdle for the shift to renewables. Electricity retailers have warned that significant delays in connecting EV charging points and solar PV installations to the local power grid are putting the brakes on the country’s energy transition.” So there are issues, but I do not see any shortages that would halt data centers and Oracle gave us in may that millions are invested in both Germany and the Netherlands. I reckon that there would be clear signals if the presented facts were actually true. So whilst I am really reeling for a “told you so” setting, even a squared setting of told you so, there is a larger setting that requires all our attentions. The verification and validation of presented facts requires checking at nearly every bend, curve and turn of the way. So whilst the cartoon image is highly entertaining, it is all it is, entertaining. 

But I do like to check all the ins and outs of statements thrown my way and in this case I though I would get to loudly go ‘told you so’ and in the end I cannot yet do that and that is the setting that I face today. I till believe that this bubble comes crashing down, but in its own right, not by presenting (what I perceive to be) false settings towards at least one titan in the IT business who has always steered a straight course. 

And in the final setting we see that “hyperscale centers requiring 100 megawatts or more”, how much more is really depending on the centre, but to set the power ‘demand’ to 40 times that for an AI centre becomes debatable, especially as both the Netherlands and Germany have a good grasp on the energy they have and what is required. So I am seeing all kinds of red flags at present. And I still have the ‘told you so’ setting because verification and validation are pretty important markers in the AI field. So the next move is on the Media and to run down the truth of both German energy as well as Amazon and Oracle, but that is merely my point of view. Have a great day.

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November 4, 2025 · 10:05

At the benefit of Riyadh

That is what I saw a few days ago, but as with all matters, the people who see the advantage do not always see what they have. You see, almost 3 years ago I wrote ‘Girdle your loins’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/11/30/girdle-your-loins/) where I have both Kingdom Holdings, Saudi Arabia and Amazon the stage where they could set the stage of an additional 6 billion a year with optionally enlarging this to about 15 billion a year (a cautious conservative estimate) and that was merely the beginning. I tried to hand it to Google, but the person I had to seal to was not in the office (it was in the Covid lockdown stage) and 2 days later they dumped the Google Stadia. So, I was depending on Amazon (and Andy Jessy), or the Kingdom Holding, but there I had to deal with   Prince Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud. And he has never heard of me, so I was up going nowhere. And I get it, a billionaire gets thousands of ‘pleads’ in a daily basis and I don’t amount to much. I get that. But that doesn’t take away the anguish of having the idea of a lifetime (well 50 million dollars plus change) and as it holds billions of revenue, I was in a decent position, but over the last three years my changes has dwindled, even Tencent was leaving the idea in the ground and for the life of me I cannot understand why these so called ‘self made billionaires’ leave this much revenue one the floor. I get the idea that if it isn’t AI, it is worthless, but the sentiment behind that is flawed as AI doesn’t exist and the issues I raised with energy and validation and verification of data are showing a much larger setting now (see yesterday’s blog). 

But as Saudi Arabia bought Electronic Arts the issue changes. You see the second pillar on the story ‘Girdle your loins’ has a new lease on life as Electronic Arts brought some of the highest rated games during 1985-1999 and that is the focal point of a lot of games and as Saudi Arabia owns the IP now, the games that are published as Bullfrog will be worth a massive amount. 

We had Magic Carpet (1+2), Dungeon Keeper (1+2), Populous (1+2) and there is another upside. These games can be released in the original setting (with upgraded sound and graphics) and there is the setting that these games can be ‘islamiphied’ giving a game like Populous the setting to add the graphics of an Arabic themed land, with optional setting that added libraries can be unlocked in the game as you conquer the lands it adds a cauldron with a graphic theme and that gives the player a new stride on the game. And that is one house who had additional titles, as such the setting for Riyadh increases to a larger setting and one that brings in the money. Wouldn’t it be nice if (as I personally see it) that the investment of $55 billion will earn itself back in under a decade by additional means? That is what Google, Amazon and others left on the floor. And only 20 hours ago the Guardian gave us ‘Boom or bubble? Inside the $3tn AI datacentre spending spree’ with the byline “Investment in these vast warehouses is huge but some worry the debt-fuelled exuberance will backfire” with the setting of “Google’s owner Alphabet has reported revenues of $100bn in a single quarter for the first time, helped by growing demand for its AI infrastructure, while Apple and Amazon have also just reported strong results.” And still the media avoids certain matters as we are given “Goldman Sachs expects it to double by the end of 2030. This carries a further infrastructure cost of its own, according to Goldman, with $720bn of grid spending needed to meet that energy demand.” So double the effort by 2030? Is that a critical holding, because as I personally see it, the American economy doesn’t have that long and the energy setting is critical as is validating and verifying the Deeper Machine Learning data sets, an issue that is ‘circumvented’ by nearly all. As such I personally feel that my solution as a way around shortage of funds was seemingly (a personal view) a good idea to have in the back pocket and I was eager to hand it to Google (just to keep it out of the hands of Microsoft) but alas, I was not that fortunate. And make no mistake. I wanted to cash in on my ideas as anyone would, so there is no altruistic setting here. I am not better than all (just better than most) and now it seems that Saudi Arabia and through it I reckon Kingdom Holdings have the inside track on billions left on the floor. I wonder if they will make a deal with Tencent to make it work. 

Have a great day. I will dream of icy cold water (it is 28 degrees celsius now) and the taste of refreshing icy cold water appeals to me at present.

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November 1, 2025 · 10:00

What do bubbles do?

There was a game in the late 80’s, I played it on the CBM64. It was called bubble bobble. There was a cute little dragon (the player) and it was the game to pop as many bubbles as you can. So, fast forward to today. There were a few news messages. The first one is ‘OpenAI’s $1 Trillion IPO’ (at https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/10/30/openais-1-trillion-ipo/) which I actually saw last of the three. We see ridiculous amounts of money pass by. We are given ‘OpenAI valuation hits $762b after new deal with Microsoft’ with “The deal refashions the $US500 billion ($758 billion) company as a public benefit corporation that is controlled by a nonprofit with a stake in OpenAI’s financial success.” We see all kinds of ‘news’ articles giving these players more and more money. Its like watching a bad hand of Texas Hold’em where everyone is in it with all they have. As the information goes, it is part of the sacking of 14,000 employees by Amazon. And they will not see the dangers they are putting the population in. This is not merely speculation, or presumption. It is the deadly serious danger of bobbles bursting and we are unwittingly the dragon popping them. 

So the article gives us “If anyone needs proof that the AI-driven stock market is frothy, it is this $1 trillion figure. In the first half of the year, OpenAI lost $13.5 billion, on revenue of $4.3 billion. It is on track to lose $27 billion for the year. One estimate shows OpenAI will burn $115 billion by 2029. It may not make money until that year.” So as I see it, that is a valuation that is 4 years into the future with a market as liquid as it is? No one is looking at what Huawei is doing or if it can bolster their innovative streak, because when that happens we will get an immediate write-off no less then $6,000,000,000,000 and it will impact Microsoft (who now owns 27% of OpenAI) and OpenAI will bank on the western world to ‘bail’ them out, not realising that the actions of President Trump made that impossible and both the EU and Commonwealth are ready and willing to listen to Huawei and China. That is the dreaded undertow in this water. 

All whilst the BBC reports “Under the terms, Microsoft can now pursue artificial general intelligence – sometimes defined as AI that surpasses human intelligence – on its own or with other parties, the companies said. OpenAI also said it was convening an expert panel that will verify any declaration by the company that it has achieved artificial general intelligence. The company did not share who would serve on the panel when approached by the BBC.” And there are two issues already hiding under the shallows. The first is data value, you see data that cannot be verified or validated is useless and has no value and these AI chasers have been so involved into the settings of the so called hyped technology that everyone forgets that it requires data. I think that this is a big ‘Oopsy’ part in that equation. And the setting that we are given is that it is pushed into the background all whilst it needs to have a front and centre setting. You see, when the first few class cases are thrown into the brink, Lawyers will demand the algorithm and data settings and that will scuttle these bubbles like ships in the ocean and the turmoil of those waters will burst the bubbles and drown whomever is caught in that wake. And be certain that you realise that the lawyers on a global setting are at this moment gearing up for that first case, because it will give them billions in class actions and leave it to greed to cut this issue down to size. Microsoft and OpenAI will banter, cry and give them scapegoats for lunch, but they will be out and front and they  will be cut to size. As will Google and optionally Amazon and IBM too. I already found a few issues in Googles setting (actors staged into a movie before they were born is my favourite one) and that is merely the tip of the iceberg, it will be bigger than the one sinking the Titanic and it is heading straight for the Good Ship Lollipop(AI) the spectacle will be quite a site and all the media will hurry to get their pound of beef and Microsoft will be massively exposed at the point (due to previous actions). 

A setting that is going to hit everyone and the second setting is blatantly ignored by the media. You see, these data centers, How are they powered? As I see it, the Stargate program will require (my inaccurate multiple Gigabytes Watt setting) a massive amount of power. The people in West Virginia are already complaining on what there is and a multiple factor will be added all over the USA, the UAE and a few other places will see them coming and these power settings are blatantly short. The UAE is likely close to par and that sets the dangers of shortcomings. And what happens to any data center that doesn’t get enough power? Yup, you guessed it, it will go down in a hurry. So how is that fictive setting of AI dealing with this?

Then we get a new instance (at https://cyberpress.org/new-agent-aware-cloaking-technique-exploits-openai-chatgpt-atlas-browser-to-serve-fake-content/) we are given ‘New Agent-Aware Cloaking Technique Exploits OpenAI ChatGPT Atlas Browser to Serve Fake Content’ as I personally see it, I never considered that part, but in this day and age. The need to serve fake content is as important as anything and it serves the millions of trolls and the influencers in many ways and it degrades the data that is shown at the DML and LLM’s (aka NIP) in a hurry reducing dat credibility and other settings pretty much off the bat. 

So what is being done about that? As we are given “The vulnerability, termed “agent-aware cloaking,” allows attackers to serve different webpage versions to AI crawlers like OpenAI’s Atlas, ChatGPT, and Perplexity while displaying legitimate content to regular users. This technique represents a significant evolution of traditional cloaking attacks, weaponizing the trust that AI systems place in web-retrieved data.” So where does the internet go after that? So far I have been able to get the goods with the Google Browser and it does a fine job, but even that setting comes under scrutiny until they set a parameter in their browser to only look at Google data, they are in danger of floating rubbish at any given corner.

A setting that is now out in the open and as we are ‘supposed’ to trust Microsoft and OpenAI, until 2029, we are handed an empty eggshell and I am in doubt of it all as too many players have ‘dissed’ Huawei and they are out there ready to show the world how it could be done. If they succeed that 1 trillion IPO is left in the dirt and we get another two years of Microsoft spin on how they can counter that, I put that in the same collection box where I put that when Microsoft allegedly had its own more powerful item that could counter Unreal Engine 5. That collection box is in the Kitchen and it is referred to as the Trashcan.

Yes, this bubble is going ‘bang’ without any noise because the vested interested partners need to get their money out before it is too late. And the rest? As I personally see it, the rest is screwed. Have a great day as the weekend started for me and it will star in 8 hours in Vancouver (but they can start happy hour inn about one hour), so they can start the weekend early. Have a great one and watch out for the bubbles out there.

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October 24, 2025 · 16:48

For play, Four play or Foreplay

That is the game and today it is the setting of the BBC to get their buns burned, or at least that is how I see it. The article by Liv McMahon is nothing short of a joke. We are given “Snapchat, Reddit and Lloyds Bank were among more than 1,000 sites and services reported to have gone down as a result of issues at the heart of the cloud computing giant’s operations in North Virginia, US on 20 October. In a detailed summary of what caused the outage, Amazon said it occurred as a result of errors which meant its internal systems could not connect websites with the IP addresses computers use to find them.” And I particularly liked the ‘application’ of detailed. It is followed by groveling and whatever by Amazon, and an explanation by Zoe Kleinman, so the detailing was left to someone else. We are given “Amazon said it came down to an issue in US-EAST-1 – its largest cluster of data centres which power much of the internet. Critical processes in the region’s database which stores and manages the Domain Name System (DNS) records, allowing website URLs to be understood by computers, effectively fell out of sync.

According to Amazon, this triggered a “latent race condition” – or in other words unearthed a dormant bug that could occur in an unlikely sequence of events.” So, a bug that could in fact happen if an unlikely event would take place. So, a system at the corner of everything could fall over. You know, Elon Musk gave me a simpler setting, He gave me this image through Twitter (still refusing to call it X).

As I see it, this image is clearer than your whatever you called that piece and it shows the setting that this should not have happened and what were these unlikely events? You fail to disclose this, but that is the foundation of the BBC at present, catering to terrorists (Hamas) at every turn and not triple checking your facts. And there is a need to solve this. You see, Dr. Junade Ali (from Institute for Engineering and Technology) gives us (through you) “Dr Ali believes it highlights the need for companies to be more resilient and diversify their cloud service providers “so they can fail over to other data centres and providers when one isn’t available”. “In this instance, those who had a single point of failure in this Amazon region were susceptible to being taken offline,” he said.” He is correct and that also sets the current ‘drive’ to non-existing AI to a halt. If this is set to AWS standards, there is every likelihood that this flaw is replicated through their AI front and at that setting when this curve is hit, error on error will creep into a system that isn’t supposed to have it. I kinda trust Oracle to have is solved, but AWS might fall over. As such what will the damage be at that point? You can doubt and deny this, but I just illustrate a fall over point and if it has to be addressed at this point, what will the damage be to the consumers of Amazon AI? 

Systems built onto systems and managed by systems when a fall back flaw hits is the start of an unstoppable disaster, or at least unstoppable until there is human interaction and it took approximately 15 hours to fix. Now consider that the decisions of an AI are unchecked for over 15 hours, what damages does this setting bring?

In other news, I got “Many major websites and apps became inaccessible due to a Domain Name System (DNS) issue affecting AWS’s DynamoDB database.” The word Dynamo does not enter your story even once. Seems like the BBC left the facts on the floor, is that how you operate at present? As I personally see it, the Image from Elon Musk was more revealing in this instance and he didn’t have to write a word.

In this, the last word was given to Dr. Junade Ali was spot on “In this instance, those who had a single point of failure in this Amazon region were susceptible to being taken offline”

He seemingly was right and the damage is seen through a thousand corporations big and small and it seems that this “dormant bug that could occur in an unlikely sequence of events” is exactly what organized crime is looking for, a place to hold over everyone as a hostage to their needy revenue. A point they can attack. I think that it is a massive setting that needed fixing last month to be certain, because what was, can explicitly be again. That is how organized crime works, unless they have Filofaxes, which makes them very organized crime at that point.

So as I see it the players are Consumer, Technology, Amazon and opportunity (by anyone). So there are the four players and I reckon that this setting has plagued DynamoDB in a few ways and at least three months ago we were given “Teams are shifting from AWS DynamoDB to alternatives like ScyllaDB due to cost, latency, and multi-cloud flexibility issues. – DynamoDB’s fixed pricing and limited scalability struggle to meet enterprise demands for hybrid cloud adaptability.” So as I see it, there were more issues plaguing this weakness. Another thing that the BBC never showed us, at least not in this report. So what else was missing?

As I see it, have a great day, don’t forget your intake of Coffee (or tea if you are in the UK) and see where the flaws of others would impact you. Don’t rely on me because I am apparently heavily flawed.

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October 22, 2025 · 04:30

The bubble to end all bubbles

That is what I saw mere minutes ago. It was yesterday’s piece at the Financial Review. An opinion piece by Gita Gopinath. Now normally I tend to ignore opinion pieces, but due to the fact that over time Financial Review has shown a good back on several matters and I picked up on the title ‘The crash that could torch $US35trn of wealth’ (at https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/the-crash-that-could-torch-us35trn-of-wealth-20251016-p5n31w) gives pause for alarm. As America has its tourism issues, its economy issue and its technology issues a $35,000 billion write-off would be nothing less than a disaster in the making. I wrote about this a few times, but even I shudder to think of how large this bubble has become. The 2008 crash was half of that and the documentary Inside Job does a great way to explain this. Take this movie together with the movie Margin Call and you get a picture of what was done to the people of the world.

This is more than 100% worse and it started with the delusional setting of salespeople taking the easy road and giving the rest of the world how amazing AI was going to be. The quote “I calculate that a market correction of the same magnitude as the dotcom crash could wipe out over $US20 trillion ($30 trillion) in wealth for American households, equivalent to roughly 70 per cent of American GDP in 2024. This is several times larger than the losses incurred during the crash of the early 2000s. The implications for consumption would be grave. Consumption growth is already weaker than it was preceding the dotcom crash. A shock of this magnitude could cut it by 3.5 percentage points, translating into a 2-percentage-point hit to overall GDP growth, even before accounting for declines in investment” should stop you in your tracks. With the additional “Foreign investors could face wealth losses exceeding $US15 trillion, or about 20 per cent of the rest of the world’s GDP. For comparison, the dotcom crash resulted in foreign losses of around $US2 trillion, roughly $US4 trillion in today’s money and less than 10 per cent of rest-of-world GDP at the time. This stark increase in spillovers underscores how vulnerable global demand is to shocks originating in America” was not unknown to me, but I did not figure on the damage exceeding 10 trillion, here I see I was off by 50% (which comes due to a lack of an economic degree on my side), but data I know, in and out. I saw some of this and I tried to warn people and especially the Emirati people (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/20/the-start-of-something-bad/) in ‘The start of something bad’ only two days ago. And the reason why it would be worse is seen in the next setting of the Financial Review. We are given “Historically, the rest of the world has found some cushion in the dollar’s tendency to rise during crises. This “flight to safety” has helped mitigate the impact of lost dollar-denominated wealth on foreign consumption. The greenback’s strength has long provided global insurance, often appreciating even when the crisis originates in America, as investors seek refuge in dollar assets. There are, though, reasons to believe that this dynamic may not hold in the next crisis. Despite well-founded expectations that American tariffs and expansionary fiscal policy would bolster the dollar, it has instead fallen against most major currencies.” I kinda saw that two days ago, but not to this degree (the Financial Review writes it better) When that bubble burst it will not allow for shelter and the people involved will be hit massively. As I see it Nvidia will survive by will see its value decreased by 90%. Oracle will get hit less but it will still take a beating. Microsoft will be up for sale in the bargain basement and after builder.ai, the bubble will stick to them like gum in hair and they will not be able to shake the event. Others (Google, IBM, Amazon) will be hit, but they will get through this. As I see it, the only high standard that is maintained will be Adobe. Their “AI” options are soundly set in Deeper Machine Learning. As I see it, they will tend to be the shelter of choice if at all possible. 

The only part I disagree with is “Although this does not mark the end of the dollar’s dominance, it does reflect growing unease among foreign investors about the currency’s trajectory. Increasingly, they are hedging against dollar risk – a sign of waning confidence.” As I see it, the dollar comes to an end with this bubble. I do not know what people will rush to, but the dollar is no longer the place to be. As I see it there will be a flock going towards the Yuan, the Dirham and the Bitcoin, but personally I have no idea if the Bitcoin survives. You see, a $35,000 write-off will come from some currency and those hiding in Bitcoin will lose a lot, no telling how much, but it will be close to astronomical. The Financial Review gives us “Perceptions of the strength and independence of American institutions, particularly the Federal Reserve, play a crucial role in maintaining investor confidence.” That independence is close to obsolete. This administration took care of that with all the tariffs, all the tourist settings and the economy is also shaky. It might not be but someone took the trouble of not reporting the ‘goodness’ of their setting. The labour statistics are nowhere to be found and that is shaking investor confidence. All that whilst Paramount is shaking thousands of people of their employment tree, this year alone Microsoft shed 15,000 jobs, IBM is said to have fired 21,000 jobs, making Google’s 100 job losses trivial in comparison. In this setting and with the missing labor statistics the investor confidence would be in the basement and even if the Federal reserve doused that paper in the scent of Luis Vuitton it would not matter much. At present Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the best places for these investors and America knows this. They have oil to fall back on and as I see it, no matter how the AI bubble bursts, they can retrench this into service roles and data acquisition roles. That is what Europe fears, American held data used to safely drip the economy to health using IP values from everywhere. And this is not the first time I wrote about this in ‘That one flaky promise’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/01/29/that-one-flaky-promise/) where I saw the dangers of America ‘annexing’ whatever it had and that was BEFORE AI and the bubble it created. I swear that danger almost 4 years ago. That setting will implode the rest of what America thought they would have. As I see it, a strong setting of IP and storage of it could help both Saudi Arabia and the UAE (a likely preferred choice) to evade to (those who can afford it) because when this bubble goes it will wipe out whatever most of us hold for dear and those who had their patents in the US. This is mere (intense) speculation, but do you think that this American administration will not do this? It had no trouble with tariffs and the setting of THEIR ‘big beautiful America’ at the expense of everything. They even tried to make Canada and Greenland part of America. I don’t think so and as I see it, when that bubble goes America is pretty much done for. All because Americans believe that Cash is King. So their salespeople live by the dollar and will waste it at a moments notice for their personal needs. Should you doubt that please watch Inside Job and see what they did there. I reckon that Iceland is now getting back on its feet al will enjoy the view on the impact crater that Wall Street leaves behind. 

I need to end this with a word of caution. This was base on an opinion piece, so as that is wrong, so is my view. But I based it on the data I had available and the prediction that I saw in 2022, so there was no AI bubble at that time. So is my view more accurate now? That cannot be said and it is based on what desperate people do and as I see it America is about to become really desperate. So enjoy your coffee today, which I will do also and I will assist a young woman named Aloy help her defeat some machines. They were not Microsoft products, so they should work. Now lets make them a lot less functional and that Deathbringer looks like a right monster.

Have a great day and try not to get too depressed by the not so good news I am partially bringing.

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October 21, 2025 · 05:09

Modus operandi on steroids

That is what I see and not everyone does that. There is the setting of oversimplification and I get it, we all want things to work. So when the BBC alerted us all to the outage that AWS experienced there is more to all of this. 

I am not on the side of Amazon here, or on their opposition for that matter. So when I saw the news that thousands of corporations went down I was eager to see the news. And as it was given to me “Platform outage monitor Downdetector says it has seen more than 6.5 million reports globally, affecting more than 1,000 companies” but why? And we get that with “There aren’t many alternatives to AWS – operating on that vast scale is an enormous logistical challenge” and I tend to agree with Zoe Kleinman on this. So as the BBC gives us “Amazon Web Services says it has fixed the underlying problem that has disrupted many of the world’s biggest websites and apps, but a full recovery will take some more time” and I go ‘underlying problem?’ And there Tom Gerken has an answer, he gives us “At 08:00 BST this morning, reports started flooding in of problems accessing a few apps. By 09:00, it was apparent this had turned into quite a big deal.

We know now that the culprit was something called “DNS resolution” not working properly at Amazon Web Services. In simple terms, it all comes down to the bit of tech which lets a computer understand what we mean when we see a url like bbc.co.uk. But the reason it had such a big impact is simply that a massive amount of companies rely on Amazon working properly.

Downdetector told the BBC it had received reports stating more than 1,000 companies were facing problems. The question now is – will some of these companies look to alternatives?”

You see, the problem is that ‘everyone’ expects a setting to work outright all the time and the old premise is “You can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time” this can now be ‘tweaked’ into “You can service all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time, but you cannot service all of the people all of the time” you might think that this is folly, but it is not. You can introduce larger pools of resolution, but the system was designed to work all of the time, there was apparently no switch over and that might have resolved things. I am also contemplating that an outside source had introduced something to make it fall over. Was that the case? Amazon and its AWS pool of technicians are top notch, as such this hiccup might have been foreseen. 

My thoughts on the third party comes from the news “The latest update comes after AWS said, at around 12:00 BST, it had fixed the underlying issue, but noted there would still be problems as they brought everything up to speed” and this happens around noon? I don’t believe in these coincidences. Like noon British Summer Time? Something seems amiss. We get the usual baby formula stories, because the baby needs feeding. Yet the idea of having something in stock was rejected? And I get it, we all need our sustenance. That’s why I keep 3 days of spare food, so when this happens I am not helpless. 

So that gives us to the ‘latest’ issue. We are given “After today’s Amazon Web Services outage impacted many of the world’s biggest businesses, some customers might be asking whether they can take legal action for any disruption they might have suffered. Henna Elahi, a senior associate at Grosvenor Law in London, explains that whether money can be recovered will depend on “several factors”, including the contracts between the various parties and the severity of the outage. For instance, banking apps are among those that saw thousands of reports of issues.” And I get that, some people will cling to legal settings and that is fine, but that gives me the following questions.

Does these contracts raise glitch issues? Was there an insurance setting to prevent this? Was that insurance paid or did everyone just assume that this is a free service that works 100% of the time?

I reckon that AWS will investigate how this could have been prevented or diminished. You see when this happens on these AI systems and you can disrupt these services, a glitch like that will allow you to short sell what AI data is handled and that implies organized crime intervention on nearly every level (or state players).

We were given:

19:25 2025-10-20
Many of the world’s biggest apps including Snapchat, Duolingo and Roblox have gone down, in what appears to be an issue affecting Amazon Web Services. The BBC has approached Snapchat and Amazon for comment.

And on: 23:54 2025-10-20
Amazon says it has fixed the issue, which occurred in the US at the heart of its cloud computing operations in North Virginia, and services are recovering.

This implies that the entire setting took less then 5 hours to fix, I say ‘Yay Amazon’ but the underlying setting that what this had such a massive impact, all whilst North Virginia was affected is the cutting question and whilst we can think that it was in North Virginia hence the CIA is to blame is just ludicrous (yet, not out of the realm of possibilities) my issue is that a setting of decentralized cloud computing might be required. Hence as one system goes down one of the other takes over and as we are given that “The AWS Cloud in North America has 31 Availability Zones within 9 Geographic Regions, with 31 Edge Network Locations and 3 Edge Cache Locations.” My question becomes (optionally utterly ridiculous) “Why did it take 4 hours” with the added “When cloud computing is nearly ‘global’” perhaps there are good reasons for this, perhaps this is the first time this went down to this degree and that is fine. Things go broken into the night and the next morning we have a stronger system. This is the track of evolution and it never goes without a glitch. 

But the idea that one centre had this much of a global impact? Consider that when the Stargate contraption goes online and power gets disrupted. See what you optionally lose at that point. Because that is the underlying setting. It isn’t what we have now, it will be what we will have tomorrow that counts as disastrous.

Have a great day and in case it happens again, don’t rely solely on your credit card, make sure you can afford to pay for that coffee (that ancient system using coins). 

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