Tag Archives: Apple

June 24, 2023 · 10:11

Path of a slippery slope

We all have that at times and this time it is me on that slippery slope. You see I made reference to the loss that Facebook would be facing, and yesterday I decided to dig deeper into that. You see, I have nothing against Facebook (or Meta), I am not after their channels. Yet my new design will give a larger stage and it will cost Facebook 10%-15% (a rough estimate), I doubt it will go beyond that, and if it does, it will not be for many years. Still according to the numbers I am finding (2022), that would mean a loss of $11-$17 billion to Facebook and there is no other side to that. It will not become my revenue (the revenue of my IP). It will trickle down to me to a small degree at some point and I was contemplating how I could enlarge that trickle effect. But I am deciding against it, because it will impact the bottom line which implies that the negative effect is a lot larger than the positive effect. And as I was looking deeper, I saw that the other branch has additional positive effects. Not more money (perhaps over time), but it sets the stage that the revenue of stage one will be met quicker, which is absolutely good. It is the third branch that has a few items, no negative sides, but I have been looking into getting a more positive impact, positive revenue stream sided. Still there is time for that and perhaps as the third branch is executed, more options become available. In the first I am looking into the option of the Tomes that are connected. There is a stream coming there and it is positive, but there are no numbers, no numbers from any reliable source that would give me this stage to be considered quicker. 

As such there are more sides to consider, especially as Facebook is coming with its own Twitter, there is nothing realistic yet, but I have been considering on how this could be accessed. As Twitter is playing games, I see no real benefit at present, but Facebook has other goals and there more options could evolve. 

Still I am on a slippery slope. I was feeling content and safe when it was all about the IP, as such I am not focussing on the revenue streams (other then a return on investment). You see, here we get Microsoft (who is not allowed near my IP). They are a 5 time loser. The first was their Tablet approach (that Surface thingamajig), which is nowhere near Apple, not even a dent in their revenue stream. This was their first loss. Then they lost their cloud solution to Amazon (that bookshop) which is loss number two, then they lost the console war to both Sony and Nintendo. This beckons the laughter that the strongest console in the world lost to the weakest of them all. That gives us loss number three. They are losing market share to both Apple and Adobe in their core office setting which is loss number four and the streaming war they will definitely lose it to whomever ends up with my IP. And in addition to that, they will lose to Amazon for sure and they will lose to whatever Tencent Technology will bring and they are likely to lose to Apple Arcade (I do not know enough of that solution) as well. This makes Microsoft a loser five times over and as such the implosion of Microsoft is still on for 2026. Which after all those billions invested in keeping Sony smaller is just hilarious on many sides. These elements matter because it places my IP in a premium spot. The idea that I have the ammunition that boots Microsoft in the ass makes me happy, no matter how little I get for it. Still, I need to focus. You see, getting overly happy on one side is not good. I require a critical mind to consider what could be done in three stages.

The first is what I must have (Unreal Engine 5)
The second is what I should have (a clear population with a mission statement)
The third is nice to have (A Foxtrot Uniform to Microsoft and optional additional revenue streams to moi)

These three streams are always considered in the short term, medium term and long term. Americans hate long term, the often lack focus and vision. Yet the long term is always important. It matters towards whatever mission statement you cloak yourself in and how you present the solution. It matters a great deal. Only spreadsheet users focus on the next quarter, but it is not about the next year, it is about the next three years (at least) and that is how I saw that Amazon and Google were leaving billions on the floor (Google more than Amazon). It is a realisation on where one could be heading where the real profit is, because the bulk of all revenue seekers are focussed on the next quarter (where their bonus is). And because of that they leave larger revenue options untouched. Feel free to oppose me on that, but when you do, look at your boss and their bosses on where they are focussed on. It is always a next quarter stage and you tend to lose a lot of revenue that way. Even now we see all the tech companies and places like LinkedIn shedding hundreds of jobs, all whilst a place like LinkedIn had options, they had in their niche options to diversify and keep to their niche. Others are in a similar stage, and when we realise that, other can have a go at finding their option. You see when you the delimitation of a corporation (that next quarter thing) your options open up, not merely mine. All those willing to dream and design past a next quarter will have options they never considered before and that is when you see the meadow with lost revenues. A meadow that Microsoft, Google, Amazon, LinkedIn, Meta, Salesforce, and several others. They are all shedding jobs and perhaps for them it is a valid setting, but that also means that they aren’t able to make critical adjustments when people are needed and that is where the visionary comes in. I was lucky that my IP started well before they shedded jobs. I was in a pristine place where no one was looking and I have that advantage now, an advantage that will not last. I get that. But for now they aren’t seeing what I am and with the tens of thousands of jobs gone, the manpower to seek around is also faltering for them (which is good for me). Still I know I am on a slippery slope. There are elements that I am most likely to overlook and I do not know which ones (because if I knew, I wouldn’t be overlooking them). 

Still it is a nice weekend for now, I will see what tomorrow brings. Time is not one element one tries to anticipate, it is too tiring an exercise and you tend to overlook more and more elements, they say a stitch in time saves nine, but for the most you tend to live on borrowed time instead of enjoying life and that is a big no no in my book.

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Gaming, IT, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , ,

June 5, 2023 · 07:54

Remastering failure

That is a question I am wondering about. This all started last night when I saw some advertisement of Belvedere Vodka with Daniel Craig (kind of) dancing in it. This reminded me of Christoper Walken in the video of Weapon of choice by Fatboy Slim. This is how it started. You see, in 1980 he starred in a movie called Dogs of war, made after a book by Frederick Forsyth. The cast was good, I personally liked the movie, yet it only made $5.4 million on a $8 million budget. A failure Hollywood would say. Another movie made on an unpublished work was The Wild Geese from 1978, also all star cast making almost 10 million on a nearly 12 million budget. Another failure according to Hollywood. Still they were good movies and both had unorthodox settings in those days. The audience was not ready for these movies.

So what happens when Netflix, Apple or Amazon takes a stab at these making them massively darker, making them larger (like a Mini series) You see, these movies could never be made in 135 minutes. But in 4-6 episodes of 60-90 minutes this takes on a whole new form and this time it is to an audience who is ready for the setting of either movie. And not for nothing, Frederick Forsyth has published a whole range of books that could be redone. Some more readily then others. We think of the fourth protocol as the movie that launched Pierce Brosnan into stardom, and opposing Michael Caine he did the job, but in this day and age that setting is suddenly a lot more real than ever before. The Fourth Protocol made twice the budget, as such it might not be seen as a failure. Yet these stories could rake in the viewers and therefor the cash. I am considering the thought that these movies were ahead of their time and Hollywood trying to blockbuster whatever they could got to these scripts too early. This is merely a personal view and optionally not the right one. Yet I wonder if anyone in these three houses looked at the movies that never made a profit and wondered if they could now. Both Wild Geese and the Dogs of War had the setting of a good story, they had the background to make it interesting (especially Steward Granger as the exploiting merchant banker Sir Edward Matheson in Wild Geese), all sides that were never explored, you could not do that in 134 minutes. Yet now, in the streaming age these jewels could make a new appearance, they are over 40 years old now. I wonder what more these three could find if they altered the vision they have. 

Good movies aren’t grown on trees, they are found in scripts and at the moment the search for scripts is a whole new problem (until the strikes are a thing of the past). They might not have script writers now, but the preamble to prepare for tomorrow is not something you want to leave in the field, not in this day and age.

Enjoy Monday, the weekend is almost yesterday.

Leave a comment

Filed under movies

Tagged as , , , , , , , , ,

May 30, 2023 · 13:48

My boiling point

Yup, I have one and the Guardian pushed my button. We all have buttons that can be pushed. If you sing “It’s a cruel Summer, leaving me, leaving me here on my own” really off key to Summer Mcintosh there is a chance she’ll blow a gasket too (it is based on classical music by Ace of Base, 1992). Some dislike the limelight, others (like me) have other buttons. And there is the start for today. The article by Rupert Neate a wealth correspondent (whatever that is) is by their own submission a reporter on covering the super rich and inequality, again whatever the hell that is. But let’s look at that article (at https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/may/29/2-tax-uk-rich-list-families-raise-22bn-year-reform-inequality) where he starts by hiding behind ‘could’ making him some clueless labor tool. The text “A modest wealth tax on the richest 350 families in the UK could raise more than £20bn a year – enough to fund the construction of 145,000 new affordable homes a year – according to research by fairer taxation campaigners” and there is the emotional useless stage. ‘Constructing 145,000 new affordable homes a year’ We will not get the equations there. We do not get locality because that pricing leaves London far outside of the scope. No his goal is limelight, to hide behind ‘could’ and emotions. Then we get “A 2% tax on assets above £10m held by all members of the Sunday Times rich list could raise as much as £22bn, according to analysis by Tax Justice UK, the Economic Change Unit and the New Economics Foundation (NEF).” And still we get no equations or justification on these numbers. We get another emotional ‘tax the rich’ by an emotional tool. And he merely ‘emotionally validates’ some Sunday Times list without justification. 

You see, lets take a look at the Guardian from June 2017 where we were given (at https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/21/battersea-power-station-affordable-homes-almost-halved-by-developer ) ’Battersea Power Station developer slashes number of affordable homes’, there we see how Malaysian investors slashed 40% of the agreed affordable homes. How did that end? Nothing (and nowhere), you useless tool! Where is the prosecution of exploiting foreign investors? Where are your values there?  In my personal opinion Rupert Neate needs to buy a lollie, sit in a corner, suck on that and shut the fuck up (pardon my language). 

It is always labour minded idiots that are heralding ‘inequality’ and that is a larger problem. I am not against PROPER taxation, but these people according to taxation law paid their fair share and then some. You see in 2022 according to one source “629,000 people paid the additional rate of income tax is 45%, and is paid on earnings above £125,140 a year”, so these people already are in the 45% bracket (don’t worry I have a solution). They have paid their fair share, yet there is another matter. I am not blind to certain levels of inequality. You see fair taxation is also needed on corporations, Apple didn’t become a trillion dollar industry because of their devices. Their tax write offs are unheard of and that had to change decades ago. I wish them all their profits, yet there should be taxation. Retail Gazette gives us ‘UK Apple stores paid less than £800,000 tax despite £971.5m of sales’ did that useless wealth correspondent look at that part? And they are merely one of dozens of companies that are legally stretching the lines of taxation laws. Then we are given “Those on the rich list include the prime minister Rishi Sunak and wife Akshata Murty at number 275 out of 350, with £529m, and the 32-year-old Duke of Westminster, with £9.9bn, at number 11.” And that might be true, so did they pay their taxation? It seems Apple didn’t. And that list grows, whilst the useless people are focussed on people who paid their dues according to tax laws. You see, there is another income stream. We get so much emotional garbage from magazines and newspapers that they should LOSE their 0% VAT setting, we can set that to 6% or 10%, there is your income right there. If you cannot properly report the news, you should be taxed. You forgot about the mirror image you see when you get up in the morning. So I give you another income source. If you cannot properly do your job, you get to be taxed as well.

Issue solved!

You see, if we are to believe the HMRC, six hundred and twenty nine thousand people pay their fair share and then some. So this rich list is utter BS, I say we tax the media, lets see how long they can play games whilst letting some useless wealth correspondent continue their ‘labor’ needs. Yes, this is personal, but we see this come again and again whilst no one is doing anything about tax laws or exploiting investors. Why not? It seems that the Guardian has a few fences to mend and I suggest that they hop to it, I reckon that they could spring that 10% VAT bill, but there is a chance that they will cry like little bitches, just like they did when the Leveson report was released. 

So, they pressed my button and this was my response. So, have a nice day whilst I kill a few people in Skyrim with a bow (we all unwind in our own way), they will never know what hit them.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Media

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 21, 2023 · 23:53

The perception of others

This is a case, this is often a case and in this case. I am one of the others. You see the ‘news’ is no longer that, it is often filtered information. Information that is accepted by shareholders, stake holders and advertisers, as such the people are seen and treated more often than not as a distant fourth. This setting came to the forefront when I saw ‘G7 takes stand against China’s “economic coercion”’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-65662720) where we are given “And in not one but two statements, the leaders of the world’s richest democracies made clear to Beijing their stance on divisive issues such as the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan. But the most important part of their message centred on what they called “economic coercion””  Now here we need to pause. These people do not lie (at least I hope they do not), but lets take a look at the evidence. The first is the ‘world’s richest democracies’, these nations are

1. Canada, debt around $ 2,100,000,000,000
2. France, debt around € 3,000,000,000,000
3. Germany, debt around € 2,600,000,000,000
4. Italy, debt around $ 3,000,000,000,000
5. Japan, debt around $ 9,300,000,000,000
6. UK, debt around £ 2,500,000,000,000
7. USA, debt around $ 32,500,000,000,000

Yes, they are really rich (in debt). To give a little consideration “As of April 2023 it costs $460 billion to maintain the debt, which is 13% of the total federal spending” for the US, their interest is $460,000,000,000 to pay for the interest and 13% of the entire budget is to pay for the interest. So all this talk about debt ceilings is close to null and void. Not unlike a Ponzi scheme the US government is taking out new loans to pay for the INTEREST of old loans. When did that ever go good? But that is not what this is about. The next stage is about ‘economic coercion’ something America and others have done for decades. Economic coercion is a political tool that the US pushed all over the middle east, and now that Saudi Arabia and other are pulling their contract with the US and giving options to China it is coercion? I mentioned it a few days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/05/19/the-stupidity-of-some/) in ‘The stupidity of some’, I made mention of some elements then and several other articles before that. One should not bite the hands that feeds you and I reckon that is why other players were invited to this party as well (no matter what they say). The US is broke and needs others to do some of the heavy lifting. This is OK, or at least that is why allies stick together, but the bulk is deeply in debt with Canada and Australia in a much better position. Germany had industrial revenues so it is not that bad off either. But this is not bout that, it becomes clear when we see “Now, they worry they are being held hostage. In recent years, Beijing has been unafraid to slap trade sanctions on countries that have displeased them. This includes South Korea, when Seoul installed a US missile defence system, and Australia during a recent period of chilly relations.” They worry? So are they being held hostage, or are they not. Lets be clear all these players have engaged with some form of economic coercion in the past, it is a valid political tool, but now that the shoe is on the other foot, the US is worried. It is losing its grip on the Middle East and as Saudi Arabia is uniting its nations and leagues with the added Syria, Egypt and now optionally Iran as well, the stage changes for the west in the Middle East. China has been invited there now and that worries all players of team G7. You see with them losing 5%-10% revenue to China due to all kinds of reasons they are now scared that someone (the big banks like the Rothschilds) will cancel THEIR credit card and that has them scared silly. I would be to, I really would. This is just a few reasons why I tried to sell my IP to Saudi Arabia and Kingdom Holdings (optionally the UAE too). Amazon and Google were asleep and not caring (perhaps they didn’t like my IP) and Microsoft is not invited to that party and optionally Tencent Technologies is.

You see, the stage, several stages are turning to China as an option. Does China have any less debt? I cannot tell, but they are drilling into new business like nothing we see and that has the G7 scared. 

So when we get to “They called for “de-risking”- a policy that Ms von der Leyen, who is attending the summit, has championed. This is a more moderate version of the US’ idea of “decoupling” from China, where they would talk tougher in diplomacy, diversify trade sources, and protect trade and technology.” We see the larger stage, the ‘west’ will diversify trade sources, so that new and emerging economies can only do business with them if they do not do business with China. Almost like Sony did with retailers in 1998/1999. Those who were showing the SEGA Dreamcast would not be getting the PS2. It scared a lot of retailers because PS2 was a winning system and it did. The same was done much earlier with VHS pushing out Betamax (which was superior). A tool used again and again. Yet the larger stage is not these emerging economies, they are a factor, it is what will Saudi Arabia and the UAE do, they are now aligning the next decade and they were the big spenders all over the place and that setting is now heading for China (not sure if it is a done deal) and in this Egypt is important. With them championing Huawei and their G5, Egypt aligns with Saudi Arabia and a lot of commerce and Egypt then becomes a 5G beachhead all over the mediterranean and Africa. This will benefit China a lot. And as we get to “The US is already doing this with its ban on exports of chips and chip technology to China, which Japan and the Netherlands have joined. The G7 is making clear such efforts would not only continue, but ramp up, despite Beijing’s protestations.” This is the stage that is evolving and it is a dangerous move to make. I get why it is done. In the first I am not stating that China is innocent, I am stating that they all used these tools and the debts are drowning their actions. The danger is that if there are any innovative people in China, they will come with an alternative. I have no idea what, but I recall a nice example. The US created a specific ballpoint pen that could be used in space, they spend millions on that solution somehow and Russia? They used a pencil. We saw the Huawei block by Google and now Huawei is rocking the Harmony OS which is available in 77 languages. It is different from both Google and Apple, so what happens when Harmony becomes the tool of choice in the Middle East? You can ban and block, but the danger is that someone finds another way just like Toshiba in Russia decades ago and there was no alternative, as such Toshiba grew and grew with an entire market where they had no competition. Will it happen again? I am certain of it, when one resource closes people look for another resource, it is a natural continuation. Only really stupid people think that no one can get around them and I wonder what will come next. As such I have issues and the BBC did nothing wrong here, they reported, they used quotes and they adhered to something (not sure what). I am showing you that what is said is not merely dangerous it is deceptive. It these are the richest democratic economies, why is there a 50 trillion dollar debt (actually it is decently higher at present). A debt of 50,000 billion and no one is asking questions. I get it (to some degree) Russia is now a problem, the Ukraine is dealing with it, but it can only do so much. It needs support and I agree they do need it and I believe they deserve all the help we can give them, yet across the waters there is no one dealing with the actual debt, they are merely prolonging a complete collapse that will have too many deep in debt for decades. Retirement plans will collapse, health care will collapse and we will all blame someone, but no one is looking at how we all let this happen and now those with the option will look towards the Middle East (including me), a lot are looking at China as an option and a global brain drain will be the consequence. All settings that the G7 will have to consider, because they all have a lot to lose.

Enjoy the start of Monday up to 12 hours (for some) from now. 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 2, 2023 · 12:57

Wages of fear

That happens, we at times decide to take a very risky road and US politicians more than most, but now they are about to head into shallows with a cruise liner? You will state that this is no big deal, tugs will pull it into deep water and normally you would be right. Yet in this case the cargo is nitroglycerine, so as it hits the shores the ship goes badaboom, a really big badaboom and it is not a ship we are talking about, it is the US economy. So as we consider what is about to happen, lets give you an example.

Netflix


Netflix at present (and over the last year has had well over 225 million subscribers, giving it an annual payday of well over $27,000,000,000 which is not too shabby, a good setting to work from.  So after the 17 billion in new media it has over 10 billion and change, I reckon that 50% if not more into technology, as such they are doing fine.

US Economy
Now we get into a less good place, the US economy and do not mistake one for the other. The US economy has many. Complexities, but the setting does not change, it needs to pay bills. As such we rely on Forbes giving us “The National Debt Approaches $32 Trillion, Will It Bankrupt America?”  (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2023/04/25/the-national-debt-approaches-32-trillion-will-it-bankrupt-america/) and this is where two groups are opposing, those in denial claim it will not be so (very wishful thinking). I myself and many others are on the opposing side of the debate. Forbes gives us “The current revenue of the federal government is approximately $4.6 trillion while spending exceeds $6.0 trillion. Thus, the current budget deficit is over $1.4 trillion. It’s clear that members of Congress are spending like drunken sailors and like the Titanic, the U.S. is on a collision course with a financial iceberg” yet this is merely one side of the shallows they are heading for. You see, that we get from another side (the New York Times) who gives us that the US is running out of money somewhere between June and September. Yet that is not the whole enchilada. These two parts should alert you to the US Bonds fiasco, I tried to warn you a few times over. You see whilst everyone is cheering on bonds, there is a downside. These pesky papers mature and even as the interest payday seems small (1.65%) over $20,000,000,000,000 that still ends up being a $330 billion invoice and the budget does not take that in. OK, it is not all due immediately, but a rough estimate gives is that in the next 4 years $2,400,000,000,000 does and that is still a massive amount. Add to this the budget deficit that has been going on for years and you see the problem the US economy is heading for. It might never have been avoided, it could have been delayed by a lot. And with the current deficits, where will the US find $600 billion annual in maturing bonds (2023-2027)

I warned of this 25 years ago when I called for a tax overhaul where companies (Google, Facebook, IBM, Apple, that loser Microsoft and several more) would pay their fair share, merely their fair share.

The point of no return was reached when Barack Obama became president of the United States. Lets be clear, this was NOT his fault, but the point where we cannot avoid what comes next was achieved. If only people had woken up a lot sooner. But there we got past a point where the problems would accelerate and now we are almost at that point. And the banks will be no help. I tried to warn you a few times over. Some of their risk and liquidity is in US bonds and when the US forfeits payment your 401K and many other things will become worth close to nothing. So if you wonder where wealth of middle class incomes is, look towards Mexico. 

And will it get worse? Yes, but how remains an issue for now. Politicians will give way to wealth and rich friends first, so that they an get their slice and these people will go to Monaco, Dubai and the Bahamas. Many of them saw this coming and they already have places there, they have had them for years. So what can be done? Actually nothing, it is too late for that, all the whining and claims will fall flat and merely moves the timeline. The American children will know what true poverty feels like, they will get there at the end of their teens or early adult life. There are a few things that will happen, pushing forward bonds will be the easiest and convincing these owners to sell to appointed people or let it ride for a lot more, but that is a bill that adds a decent amount. Whomever has a billion in bonds and is offered 3.8% instead of 1.65% will consider it and I reckon that this is why we now see 20 years bonds (personal speculation). But after that the options go dark, really dark and that is what banks fear too, because the next bank run will take away a truck load of liquidity. It is like the stowaway that went for the happy shores or America, only to learn that the weather is foul and they suddenly realise that the cargo hold is filled with Nitroglycerine. Would you chance swimming, or hope for the best. Don’t forget that the shallows were YOUR saviour, not that much for a cruise-liner with combustibles.

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , ,

April 14, 2023 · 01:14

Stupidity of principles?

That is what I was confronted with, and it is not out there, it is in me. It all started this afternoon when I got wind of an issue via the Human Right Watch. The article (at https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/04/13/saudi-arabia-microsoft-should-hold-data-center) gives us ‘Saudi Arabia: Microsoft Should Hold Off On Data Center’, I tried to convince Amazon to go there and it would smooth things over for my IP and of course their setting would be billions per year, in this I was certain and that was merely the beginning of it. They could have chiseled in stone a strafe of progress (for Amazon) and I got my purse of coins. Amazon did not react and the Saudi government only does business through partners. Now Microsoft has an advantage and I am not certain how aware they are, but I will not accept them or their purse with 30 pieces of silver. This now beckons the thought, is Tencent aware what they could gain? For me it is a serious question. You see, the HRW gives us “Microsoft should suspend its investment in a new cloud data center region in Saudi Arabia until it can clearly demonstrate how it will mitigate the risk of facilitating serious human rights violations, Human Rights Watch said today.” Well that might seem nice, but corporations ignore privacy parts all over the planet, so the HRW setting is slightly naive. Does Tencent know what thy could gain? And it is also interesting that I get this through HRW, Microsoft hasn’t been spinning this all over the field. As such I wonder what their goals are. Mine are long term and going well beyond 10 billion a year (in phase 2), but I do not trust Microsoft. Their goals are greed and the limitation of options pushing them to more revenue. That is a simple truth and nothing (no kind of spin) from people like Phil Spencer will me contemplate their words.

But Tencent is an option. I know too little about them, yet I have learned that they are embracing at least one of the essential solutions I need to rely on, making the conversation (for me) a lot easier. So are my principles stupid? The fact that I do not cater to some American corporation is actually trivial. Where are the principles on making sure that your IP gets the best coin, the best value for money. As I stated before, I will hand my IP to the Saudi government at 35% of its value before I would ever consider selling it to Microsoft at 165% of its value. It is more than principle. I saw Microsoft destroy IP in many ways and I want my IP to flourish, it is more than ego (ego is not innocent here), it is the simple stage here the IP is flagged with my name and seeing that IP rise high is important to me (which is weird because after death no one cares). There is still the sweet dream of handing Microsoft the wooden spoon, but if they continue with it, they might not collapse in 2026 (my personal goal) and Tencent could assist in that matter. 

So is Tencent any better than Microsoft? That is my impression, but I do not know enough of Tencent to make that call. Still in this case the beast you do not know is to be preferred to the one you do know and that sets me in the stage of ‘stupidity of principles?’ Where I need to wonder what drives the choices. And knowing that Tencent will offer cloud services in Saudi Arabia yet whether there will be a center in Saudi Arabia, or if the center in Bahrain will service all nations around it is currently unknown to me, but that is off less importance to me at presence. What matters is that Microsoft will not get that level of advantage. And to think that the downfall of Microsoft (as I personally see it) all started with them betraying gamers. That should shape a nice epitaph on their tombstone. Of course it will not be me, but the stage that they lost against Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Google, Sony and Tencent is just too juicy to pass up. This is what happens when you set the stage to a group of fakers, they never made it and those who did (the other six) is a nice end to a company that went from greatness to massively substandard. 

Still the questions mulls in my head, what is the stupidity of principle and how much value does that have in the field of Business Intelligence?

Enjoy the day.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

April 4, 2023 · 09:07

Weird Wall Writing

Yes, that is what it amounts to and it is making me giddy. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65157555, a mere 8 hours ago) gives us ‘Oil prices surge after surprise move to cut output’. Why is it making me giddy? Well that is simple. On March 29th I wrote ‘The snooze that does not wake’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/29/the-snooze-that-does-not-wake/). Then there was ‘Oil in the family’ on November 23rd (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/11/23/oil-in-the-family/) where I stated “Its games are now backfiring, should oil deliveries decrease by as little as an additional 1 million barrels US economy could implode with all the nightmares and trimmings that come with that.” The messages go on and on and it goes well before ‘Two Issues in play’ which I wrote in November 2018 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/11/20/two-issues-in-play/). As such I have ben pointing to this danger for 5 years, but people all around me were shouting that I was mad, that this would never happen. Now the BBC gives us “the US has been calling for producers to increase output in order to push energy prices lower. A spokesperson for the US National Security Council said: “We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty – and we’ve made that clear.”” Oh, and how many oil farms does that person have? The US played the commodity war for decades and it has been to their favour for too long, now that idiots playing with the government credit card increasing debt after debt, the commodities that they do not own become an anchor. Oh, and that being said. How much oil did Brent keep on American soil to keep the price down? Last I heard 89% is exported. So before you scream, look at ALL the facts. So when I see “This surprise announcement is significant for several reasons.” Was it really? I warned for this danger for years, the last warning was a year ago and I reckon that the 1 million barrels a day will go to China. A stage everyone disregarded. So whilst we all cry against these mean mean Arabs, consider that America has been playing this game for favours for decades, now that the tables are turned it is suddenly a problem?

The second laugh I got from “Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, warned that the oil price surge could make the battle to bring down inflation harder. However, she said that rising oil prices won’t necessarily lead to higher household energy bills.” Hah! Tell me another one, I got a bridge for sale, nice view on the Sydney Opera house. Yes, the price hike will not be immediate, but there will be a price hike, I feel very certain about that. Consider that 1,000,000 barrels a day might not seem massive, but there is already a shortage, as such the hike will come no later than 90 days for now (which is a personal speculation).  

Here the writing was on the wall and Aramco (as well as Saudi Arabia) might have had enough of the false friend naming by the US (EU too), this is their response, it is one that China has been looking forward to, I reckon Russia as well. 

And here endeth the lesson today. However I have another surprise coming up. After all these clowns shouting at me, I will make another IP Public Domain within the next 24 hours. I will show you just what Apple, Google and others missed out on and it seems nice for Tiffany (and Co) to see the impact of public domain, this time it is on Augmented Reality. Have a great day.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

April 1, 2023 · 18:54

Focal and blinders

We all face them at times, I am no different. The problem is when is what what. Let me be a little more clear, in my case Microsoft is an issue, as I personally see it, if they buy Blizzard, they will need $92,000,000 of profit a day just to break even with the purchase of 3 houses (Mojang, Bethesda and Blizzard), now this is not set correctly, they bought Mojang some time ago, as such the amount is a few million less, but it is not less by much. They already crashed Redfall PS5, which they are allowed to do. They are allowed to do whatever they need to with what they own. Yet, consider that the PS5 has well over 30,000,000 consoles in the field and they allegedly need $92 million a day, does the act make sense? So am I concentrating on a focal, or a blinder. Consider that a blinder lets you NOT see in a specific direction. We attribute all kinds of ‘evil’ towards Microsoft, are they blinders or are they seen as the result of a focal? That is actually a lot harder to answer than you think. When is one could also be the other.

As such I have been concentrating on my two IP projects. Project Graveyard and Project Cluster. Two very different software and hardware IP settings. They both fit the Amazon Luna and optionally whomever buys the Google Stadia, which is why Kingdom Holdings was on my radar. One will be a decent downfall for Microsoft the other no less, but also takes the steam out of Facebook, and as such Amazon was the logical path to take and not just merely logical, Amazon was about to get a whole new range of revenue because of it. Yet I try not to be smitten by either blinders or focal (no matter how much fun they are). As such I saw the appearance of Tencent on time and even as several players are willing to ignore Tencent, I cannot and I will not. Tencent has seemingly the ability to unite gamers. In addition it allows China to grow in one additional industry where Americans thought they would not exist and now Microsoft in particular will have a problem because of the required $92 million a day will become a nose grounded with an anchor around the neck of American economy. And there are plenty of nay sayer spinners on the internet. It is all Microsoft and they are all getting on top of things. So lets have a go at that list 

1. Microsoft would acquire Mandiant to solve their solarwinds issue
There was one news cycle and then suddenly it went dark, there was no more news. I raised it in ‘What we hope for’ on March 7th 2022 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/07/what-we-hope-for/). It became part of Google and it is a Google solution now. After that Microsoft and cyber solutions went a little dark on the matter.

2. Microsoft had a new Tablet to WOW the world. No, it didn’t never got close to the Apple iPad and it got even less close to the iPad Air, two devices that were more able and had a larger following and it still does. It still has a lot more to offer, but the spinners came with the ‘with the keyboard it was a more complete laptop’. No, it was not and it will never be that more. I saw people howling with agony as they saw failure after failure on their Surface. I still see some people trying to spin that thing. A $1650 solution trying to win over a $500 iPad, all whilst Apple has the more versatile device.

3. Microsoft has the cloud solution, Azure. Smell it, it smells nice. Which is laughingly the biggest loser of them all. In clarity, Azure is not bad, it lacks and it has no business in gaming. Azure is the Microsoft solution and after 3 years it is nowhere near ready to take on the AWS (Amazon Cloud solution). Last month someone wrote (not me) “Azure is more costly. Azure is the finest alternative for a robust Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) provider and even a Windows integration. If a company needs infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) or a wide range of tools, AWS may be the ideal option”, so where are the SAAS and GAAS comparisons? And when I look, there is always a hidden issue where the people are promoting THEIR solution, no matter whether it involves AWS or Azure (Google is falling behind too much). At the moment the marketshare of AWS is a lot larger and in some reports it seems like Google cloud and IBM cloud are underreported. What matters is that this is another field where Microsoft is not ahead. 

4. The Microsoft gaming console is the most powerful in the world. It might be true, but the weakest console of them all (Nintendo Switch) surpassed the Microsoft sales numbers by a lot and did it in half the time Microsoft with their X/S console were in the field. Even now, these numbers of X and S series consoles are aggregated, the loss is that defining. They are way behind  the PS5 with their X series console, but it is the most powerful in the world. In addition the PS5 has a whole range of next generation titles that goes into the dozen and the Microsoft console is lacking there, even after two years it is still lacking in Next generation titles. 

I will ignore issues 5,6 and 7. 4 fields where Microsoft will need to do a lot better and for years they were not able to do so. So where is that $92 million a day profit coming from? I cannot see it, can you? And that was merely to claw back the investments on gaming alone. Amazon is hungry and they are driving their AWS (and optionally their Amazon Luna too) making the pain for Microsoft larger. Apple has a firm grip on their devices and even as we might not like Apple, their devices are solid and Microsoft has no chance of driving a wedge there. And as I see it, they already lost the console war. In that environment Microsoft is bleeding revenue all over the field, their books are red with blood and red ink. And for their security I have not seen an alternative for Mandiant (owned by Google). So where are they now? When will we see another Solarwinds? It is not a given, but they lack in cyber security, so I fail to see how they will stop the next wave. 

And now the battle field changes further, Tencent is about to arrive, I merely wonder if that was one of the reasons why the E3 was cancelled (I honestly do not know). If Tencent arrives, it arrives with more options and more settings than the Microsoft console field will allow for, no matter how that plays out, it makes the Blizzard $65,000,000,000 a massive anchor around the neck of Microsoft and it will hurt them, no matter what ideas they have. Tencent has been funding a lot of Unreal engine 5 stuff, as such they could wow the gaming community and if they are going the direction I am speculating on, it will hurt both Microsoft and Amazon to a larger degree, in this the pain to Apple remains unknown, or it might be minor. And that is all before some figure out that Project Cluster will enable a lot more than anyone considered, it was meant for that, to be ready for national 5G implementations. How many of them did that off the bat and how many (implying Microsoft) stated “We will get to that when it is ready”, it is the short term focal point of a quarter by quarter BI person. In this none of them have a real long term focal point and that is why Tencent is a danger to them all, they are focussing on 2025 and 2026 (the year Microsoft allegedly collapses).

So is Microsoft my blinder? Is it my focal, or did I see the stage for what it was one that offers great options for some and not that much for others. They limited their abilities by hanging an additional $65,000,000,000 anchor around their necks. I am calling it as I saw it. Perhaps I am wrong, you tell me. I gave you the numbers and the works, you can do your own research.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Gaming, IT, Media, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 23, 2023 · 09:14

One thought counters another

This is a case we sometimes face. My thought counters theirs and their thought counters mine. There is nothing unnatural about it. In a setting where we applaud, respect or even merely accept the scales of balance, we see that one side counters another. Balance is natural and that is important here. You see, players like Microsoft have been fighting balance for their own selfish little needs for the longest of times. Now, this does not mean that Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google are not like that, but they tend to go with the flow for most of the time (Facebook perhaps a little less than the other three). Apple might be the most in tune with the scales of balance, but that is from where I sit and might be incorrect. And this all started with ‘Microsoft says ten years is “sufficient” for Sony to create Call of Duty rival’, yes, I can do you one better. They can do it in half that time. More important it will not be some Call of Duty rival, it will be better. As Microsoft is becoming more and more of a hollow egg, the $69 billion more in the near future is also the face of a failing company. You see, You can buy all you like, but when the creative people walk away because they see the failing of a company who fails against Apple with their Surface, who fails with their Azure against AWS, who fails with their Bing against Google search is a company that is doomed and as I personally see it, it is in its last 1,375 days before it crumbles into a joke, that firm will lost a lot more soon enough. And it is not that hard an equation. To merely break even Microsoft will have to exceed 72.8 million of PROFIT every day between now and 31/12/2026 and that is merely to cover the last three spendings, not all their waste. That is why I know that Microsoft will fail. So I created in the past blogs the foundations of more RPG that I made freely available to people designing for the Amazon Luna. It is the final blow of failures for Microsoft. I don’t need to do anything for Sony. They have their horses in a row and they are ready to race. Nintendo has its own niche and they are doing fine. All settings that two gaming giants had racked up correctly. Microsoft betrayed their own gamers, blew its audience who is now taking a distance from Microsoft, and as such their population is dwindling down. Still think I was delusional?

It goes from bad to worse after that. Their own cornerstone is having more and more issues and people are willing to push away from that too. Microsoft office is too bulky and there is a lot of power in Open office and Google’s solution which apart from their spreadsheet is doing above OK, not to mention the fact that it is a free product. And in the graphic settings Adobe surpassed them in several ways all at once and in the age of Meta and their metaverse Microsoft will merely lose more and the need for the daily profit of 72.8 million that marker will merely bite more and more. With the Luna set to overtake (with a little help) the Microsoft streaming service they will get another opponent. It is Chinese Tencent who is already taking serious time to create Unreal Engine 5 applications. Another soft spot Microsoft was ignoring. Yes we are given all the spin in the media, but too many is created by ‘Microsoft Friends’ and we see AI claims all over and when we think things trough, we will realise that ‘their’ AI is data driven and they lack data. There is no way that some AI claim can create scripts. You see (deeper) machine learning can only react to data, react to events they HAVE and that means that they can copy and edit, but they cannot create. That is the first larger flaw. And now as I had another idea for Streaming gaming, there will be a much larger case for people to connect to systems that will deliver, not are bought and then altered to fit another need. That is a sure way to fail. One source (a few, but seemingly all from the same source) gave us “Redfall PS5 version was in development, but cancelled after the Xbox buyout”, so how does that align with a Microsoft statement that they would be everywhere? Now, lets be clear Microsoft is allowed to do what they do, they bought Bethesda, they are trying to own Blizzard. But what happens when we design new versions, new IP exclusive for Amazon Luna and Sony? What is their win when they spend $100,000,000,000 for a console that as some sources gives us 

As of June 2022, lifetime unit sales of Xbox One consoles in North America reached 31.58 million, while in Europe, lifetime unit sales surpassed 12.8 million with some partial addition of what was estimated that Microsoft had shipped at least 18.5 million units of the two consoles (series S and X) worldwide by December 2022. Now look at the Sony equation. PS5 sales have now climbed to 32 million, with 7.1 million consoles sold in the last three months alone, a dramatic increase over the 3.9 million sold in the same quarter last year. This means that the PS5 is almost equal on the Microsoft last 3 consoles, all whilst the PS4 has surpassed 117,000,000 consoles. Now they want to go to the cloud whilst their consoles are already doomed. So I am willing to set aside some creative time to make sure that they fail there too. 6 directions (tablet, SAAS, office, search, gaming and GAAS) where Microsoft fell short and keeps on failing, no purchase will counter that and the message merely gets to be worse soon thereafter. Now, do not discount some options. Microsoft will get some parts right, Starfield looks for all accounts amazing, but when there is an alternative people will go for the one solution that does not betray them. And should Amazon (or Apple) select my IP, they stand to get more than 50,000,000 more accounts making the failure of Microsoft even more dismal, especially as I predicted this setting for the better part of 2 years. No spin will work when there is a published article countering that. They are all about making a spin towards the future, but what happens when the ‘future spin’ becomes past and does not hold up to the numbers? That is the part Microsoft seemingly forgets about (again and again) and that wheel is merely spinning faster and not for Microsoft. They will merely lose more and more control. At some point they will need more money to repair the potholes of their shoddy road. Consider the Solarwinds issue and the fact that Microsoft was going to buy a cyber powerhouse (which became part of Google) and after that the media went dark, the spin failed, so darkness is all they had and the media complied. There were no questions on how Microsoft was going to deal with it after that. Weird he?

The list merely grows and at some point the media needs to do a 180 or accept that they are a Microsoft tool. So how many failures until the media actually turns on Microsoft? Perhaps the larger advertisement deals come through, but not for all and that is the counter that vanishes, especially when you consider that the world has 18,000 registered with the World Association of Newspapers (WAN). Some will lose and that is the beginning of a lot more pain for Microsoft. 

So whilst all of that is in play. I considered a new RPG, free for Amazon Luna and Sony developers. Consider the absolute hit the first 4 God of War games were. Now consider an RPG where Tartarus is actually mapped out. As such it is no God of War and you have no special powers, but a battlefield the actual size of America named Tartarus, the underworld where you need to keep standing, where you need to survive and each death restores you, but with the millions of opponents you cannot run into battle all the time. You need to find the relic weapons that have additional powers and perhaps you will at some point find an Olympian piece of armour or. weapon that gives you an edge. And it will be first person. So 9.9999 years before Microsoft imagined I gave Amazon and Sony a rival. That is the power of creativity, something Microsoft lacks, they surely lack it, because if blizzard is bought, many creative souls will retire with their part of billions and Microsoft end up with another near empty shell, product but without driving creativity. So how long until the makers at Bethesda will have had enough? How long until they think that Ubisoft is a better deal than Bethesda under new management? That is how I know that Microsoft is ticking away towards implosion and when that happens (within the next 1380 days) I will merely sit, sip a little Ice water and tell you ‘I told you so!’ Because I get to do that at that moment. Yay me!

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Gaming, IT, Media, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 21, 2023 · 23:45

The unplanned story

That happens to us all and there are any number of reasons. I thought I was done with the subject for now, that is until CB gave me ‘Nordstrom Canada will launch sales at its closing stores starting Tuesday’ (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/nordstrom-canada-liquidating-stores-1.6784540) about 11 hours ago. There was no surprise. I covered this in part in ‘It as one keyword’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/04/it-was-one-keyword/) and that story links to a few others. I casually captured the folly of Nordstrom but I left a few things out. You see, we can all agree if you have been working from a place of loss from day one, there is a weakness in your business model, but I do not think it was enough. Covid was too unexpected and the world reeled on it, but it was already to late as I saw it and even if my IP was accepted by the right people, for Nordstrom it was already too late, it would have merely given them a little more time, time they could not hand them a better result. Their business model and their prediction model was off by too much.

You see, to see this we need to look at a picture. The picture is below. 

As you see here, we see a mall and this time around it is not the Toronto Eaton Centre, this is the Hyat Mall in Riyadh and it show the same weakness, which is the problem for malls. Yet as I see it, the problem is a lot bigger for western malls (USA, UK, EU) they have the same touch, the tough of non identity. You can scream the name all you like, but these malls are all the same. Go to a mall anywhere in the US and you could not tell where you were from walking there. It was a formula that malls were based on and between 1990-2015 that made sense, but after Covid the world changed and that is where the problems starts for these malls, all 116,000 of them. Yet there is a solution and both Gucci and Tiffany is already tapping into that, but I reckon they are missing part of it and that is where Google, Samsung and Apple come in. I wonder if these two players figure out what I saw over 6 months ago and it is a juicy one. Optionally Elon Musk could use it to give more needs to his Pi Phone but in itself it is still an android solution. The image is based on identity and interaction. You see, that need is not effort, it is engagement. Market Research (at least a few of them) have seen that engagement is the metric that really matters and Augmented reality is the core of that and that is what is missing in malls. Lets be clear, for Nordstrom it is too late, the question becomes will malls change into retail graveyard places over the next 5-10 years or are they given a new lease on life and that matters. How much real estate is in 116,000 malls? When they die the local places will light up and I personally am a firm believer in ‘Support your local hooker’ which was an expression we used in the 70’s. 

So am I right because Gucci and Tiffany are tapping into that idea? No, I believe I am right because the nature of the beast (the consumer) has changed and is still changing. They are catching on that a new prerogative is required and AR gets them there. So when they are done with ageism and other forms of consumer categorisation, they will figure out that their predictive model is wrong on a few levels and that is where we see the larger stage change. I merely wonder if some of them will wake up in time. If not, I watch it all go to hell and when it does I can point to my previous articles and tell them “Told you so” and whatever excuse they have will not hold up, because I wrote it months ago and I wrote it in several stories over a span of about a year (perhaps a little longer). So when they wake up, I wonder if it is to the board directors who are fed up with the colour rd in their books, or the conveyancer trying to measure up the place for new usage. I can’t be to the smell of coffee, because it is too late for that and it will not be to me as Amazon, Apple and Google all decided they never needed me. Fine, whatever.

So when we complete the consideration of “In approving Dacks’ liquidation request, Chief Justice Geoffrey Morawetz agreed, saying Nordstrom is facing a “difficult time, but this process is unfolding in a very co-operative manner.””

At least I kept it out of the hands of Microsoft, not a bad stage to consider. Yet consider two final things. The first is Nordstroms liquidation actual liquidation or euthanasia? The second is, is Nordstrom alone? How many other places are on the brink of really bad times in the next 5 years? 

Have a great day.

3 Comments

Filed under Finance, Media, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,